Writing

Quick Picks: Under the Radar 2023 UFAs

With NHL free agency getting closer and closer (July 1st), I’m continuing to look over the free agent class and evaluate which players I believe would be good targets. Today’s article is focused on players who I believe could provide good value on the contract we have projected for them. The intention here is to
2022 NHL Mock Draft

This is our mock version for the first round of the 2022 NHL Draft, which will be held in Montreal on July 7th. The first 20 picks will be split into multiple parts. The first part being which players our model would prefer to select at each pick. The explanation of our model can be
Seattle Kraken Expansion Mock Draft

With the addition of the 32nd National Hockey League (NHL) Franchise, the Seattle Kraken, the expansion draft they are undertaking is like Christmas for anyone who loves roster management as much as watching the sport. In this article, James Finch and Kyle Stich are joining together to go through how they would approach the expansion
2021 NHL Draft Preview

There has been plenty of talk around the 2021 NHL draft. There is a narrative that it is a “weaker” draft. I’m not sure I 100% buy that. There certainly is not a guaranteed star player that will go first overall. It appears people have become accustomed to that being the case with the likes
Sabres 2021 Guide

Well Sabres’ fans, it’s that time of the year where you make an annual pilgrimage to my website for some analysis on the direction of the team is heading. I do appreciate everyone who reads and this always seems to be a popular choice. Here I am, once again, writing about a Sabres’ team that
Sabres’ Problem is not Okposo!

The Sabres are struggling, bad, horrific, abysmal. Let’s settle on abysmal. Sabres fans are rightfully fed up and frustrated. I wouldn’t blame anyone who expresses their frustration so long as they aren’t crossing any lines. No player is blameless but some definitely deserve less blame and other more. One player over the years who has drawn fans’
Assessing the 2020 Offseason Goalie Carousel

This NHL offseason will be one unlike any other for many reasons. One of the most interesting things to watch this offseason, in my opinion, will be the movement of goaltenders around the league. It seems like there is an unprecedented number of quality goaltenders who are scheduled to become unrestricted free agents. There are
Assessing 2020 NHL Draft Prospect Probabilities of Success

AFP Analytics is proud to release its first-ever NHL draft prospect rankings. The rankings are based on the development of a logistic regression model that assigns a probability of NHL success (playing a minimum number of games) to each prospect based on their performance in years leading up to their draft eligibility. This is an
Predicting the Buffalo Sabres 2020 Roster

Every offseason I feel like I can write an interesting article on the Buffalo Sabres’ roster construction. This is the type of thing I thoroughly enjoy. It is a giant puzzle that has multiple pieces. Unlike a traditional puzzle, there are multiple ways the pieces could fit together to accomplish the same goal. Some combinations
Grading Buffalo Sabres’ GM Jason Botterill: Part 2, Signings

The Buffalo Sabres recently fired General Manager Jason Botterill. The decision to do so has come as a shock after they previously announced he would be retained. I personally haven’t thought that he has done a great job but I also don’t know if going through another regime change, especially given all of the uncertainty
Grading Buffalo Sabres’ GM Jason Botterill: Part 1, Trades

The Buffalo Sabres recently announced that they would retain General Manager Jason Botterill for a fourth season. The decision to do so has not gone over well with the fans of the team as most believe that he has done a generally poor job in his role. I personally haven’t thought that he has done
Friday Focus: November 8th

Welcome to the sixth edition of AFP Analytics’ Friday Focus section. In the Friday Focus post I hope to highlight some of the most interesting events from a numbers perspective during the past week in the NHL. If something catches my eye from other sports, I might mention it here as well. I am intending
Friday Focus: November 1st

Welcome to the fifth edition of AFP Analytics’ Friday Focus section. In the Friday Focus post I hope to highlight some of the most interesting events from a numbers perspective during the past week in the NHL. If something catches my eye from other sports, I might mention it here as well. I am intending
Friday Focus: October 25th

Welcome to the third edition of AFP Analytics’ Friday Focus section. In the Friday Focus post I hope to highlight some of the most interesting events from a numbers perspective during the past week in the NHL. If something catches my eye from other sports, I might mention it here as well. I am intending
Friday Focus: October 18th

Welcome to the third edition of AFP Analytic’s Friday Focus section. In the Friday focus post I hope to highlight some of the most interesting events from a numbers perspective during the past week in the NHL. If something catches my eye from other sports, I might mention it here as well. I am intending
Friday Focus: October 11th

Welcome to the second edition of AFP Analytic’s Friday Focus section. In the Friday focus post I hope to highlight some of the most interesting events from a numbers perspective during the past week in the NHL. If something catches my eye from other sports, I might mention it here as well. I am intending
Friday Focus: October 4th

In what I hope to become a weekly post (please forgive me if life or other work gets in the way the some weeks), I would like to welcome you to the first version of AFP Analytic’s Friday Focus section. In the Friday focus I hope to highlight some of the most interesting events from
The Curious Case of Rasmus Ristolainen: What is his value?

We previously wrote an article series (part 1 & part 2) looking at the Buffalo Sabres and their logjam on defense. We concluded that the Sabres best option would involve a trade of Rasmus Ristolainen. In the second part of the article series, we looked at nine teams that could have varying degrees of interest
Who Will Surprise During the 2019-2020 Season? – Part 2: Eastern Conference

Each year, there are players throughout the NHL who seem to come out of nowhere. Jonathan Marchessault is a recent case of a player taking an unexpected step towards stardom. For the upcoming 2019-2020 season, I have taken an in-depth look throughout the league and have identified nine players in each conference who are most
Who Will Surprise During the 2019-2020 NHL Season? – Part 1: Western Conference

Each year, there are players throughout the NHL who seem to come out of nowhere. Jonathan Marchessault is a recent case of a player taking an unexpected step towards stardom. For the upcoming 2019-2020 season, I have taken an in-depth look throughout the league and have identified nine players in each conference who are most
What Should Evan Rodrigues’ Next Contract Look Like?

On July 21st, the team offer and player ask in arbitration for Evan Rodrigues were reported and Sabres’ fans on Twitter did not seem happy with what the team might end up paying Rodrigues. The Sabres were at $1.5M while Rodrigues’s camp was at $2.65M. I would expect a deal to be reached prior to
2019 NHL Free Agents: Five Remaining UFAs Who Could Provide Value

After the initial rush of the 2019 free agency period, there are still many players looking for an opportunity with an NHL club. There are some well-known names still currently looking for a new contract, like Jake Gardiner and Joe Thornton. However, we believe that there is value to be found with the players who
The Best Options for a Sabres Trade of Rasmus Ristolainen

After looking at the options the Buffalo Sabres have to fix their roster logjam, we have taken the process a step further to identify possible outcomes for our most common prediction: trading Rasmus Ristolainen. It’s arguable that the Sabres have surpluses at both forward and defense but it is undeniable that the team has to
Solving the Sabres’ Depth Chart

At this moment, the Buffalo Sabres have multiple logjams on their current roster. Both the forward group and the defensive group still have some questions that need to be answered this offseason. At the end of the season, GM Jason Botterill mentioned the team will be looking for a top six winger and second line
Recapping July 1st & Looking Ahead

With the July 1st dust settling, we wanted to take a look at some of the moves that most caught our attention, both positively and negatively. Kyle will look at what we consider to be the three best moves from July 1st, while James will tackle the most puzzling. Both Kyle and James will then
NHL 2019 Free Agent Predictions

Forwards Artemi Panarin James Prediction:Florida Panthers Even before Panarin was traded to the Columbus Blue Jackets, there were rumors that only a few destinations were on his long-term radar. New York, Los Angeles, and Florida. Florida will make the splash and do whatever it takes to sign Panarin. There is definitely a need in the
Is Signing Jeff Skinner a Wise Financial Move for the Buffalo Sabres?

The talk of Buffalo, NY for the past month plus has been what is going to happen with Jeff Skinner. He was the most prolific goal scorer that the city has seen since Thomas Vanek in his prime. However, the overall team performance was poor once again and fans have been left wondering if the
Did Jeopardy James Self-Jeopardize his Winning Streak?

The internet is buzzing over the loss of James Holzhauer on Jeopardy!. There are theories swirling that he tanked the game. People are questioning why he wouldn’t bid it all as he has been the most aggressive player in the history of the show. However, even though Holzhauer was aggressive, he was not reckless or
NHL Trade Deadline Predictions

The NHL trade deadline is nearly upon us and I have spent the past two months posting a series going division by division (Atlantic, Metro, Central, Pacific) discussing who teams that might be buyers should be looking at as potential trade targets. I then ultimately predicted a trade for each team. At the time of
Potential NHL Trade Proposals: Pacific Division

Pacific Division With the trade deadline less than a month away and many teams having an idea of where they stand this season, now is a great time to start looking at some trades that would make a lot of sense. It has been a trend in the NHL to start making trades earlier and
The Buffalo Sabres Take a Step Forward While Taking a Step Back

The Buffalo Sabres are hoping to make the playoffs for the first time since 2011 and their game on January 29, 2019 against the Columbus Blue Jackets was as close to a must win as a game in January can be. The team ultimately pulled out a massive win but I saw extremely troubling signs
What Should the Sabres do with Nathan Beaulieu?

On Wednesday night, the Associated Press’s John Wawrow clarified an earlier report from Renaud Lavoie regarding the Buffalo Sabres’ Nathan Beaulieu. Wawrow spoke to Beaulieu’s agent who said that his client wanted more playing time, whether that be in Buffalo or elsewhere. Beaulieu confirmed these remarks the following day. Between Lavoie’s report and Wawrow’s report,
Potential NHL Trade Proposals: Central Division

With the holiday roster freeze ended and many teams having an idea of where they stand this season, now is a great time to start looking at some trades that would make a lot of sense. It has been a trend in the NHL to start making trades earlier and earlier and the unique way
Potential Trade Proposals: Metro Division

With the holiday roster freeze ended and many teams having an idea of where they stand this season, now is a great time to start looking at some trades that would make a lot of sense. It has been a trend in the NHL to start making trades earlier and earlier and the unique way
Maybe there’s a Reason For the Buffalo Sabres’ December Struggles

Oh, how times have changed in Buffalo. Just over a month ago, the Sabres headed into a matchup with the Tampa Bay Lightning riding a 10-game win streak and competing for the President’s Trophy. Before that game, I wrote how their recent success probably wasn’t going to be sustainable unless the team started to play
Potential NHL Trade Proposals: Atlantic Division

With the holiday roster freeze nearly upon us and many teams having an idea of where they stand this season, now is a great time to start looking at some trades that would make a lot of sense. It has been a trend in the NHL to start making trades earlier and earlier and the
Sam Reinhart San Jose Sharks 1st Period Breakdown

Anyone who follows me knows I am an unabashed fan of the way Sam Reinhart (#23) plays hockey. I think the Sabres made a big mistake in not signing Reinhart to a long-term contract this offseason. You can read my thoughts on bridge contracts here and Sam Reinhart’s contract specifically here. I know there are
Buffalo Sabres, Playoffs?!? Should We Talk About the Playoffs !?!

While I was getting together with my family for Thanksgiving, I was asked if I thought if the Buffalo Sabres were good and if they would make the playoffs. I’m sure my cousins are not the only ones with that question so instead of keeping the discussion to the family get together, I will lay
Breaking down a key play from Sabres Forward Tage Thompson

At the beginning of the season I was critical of Tage Thompson’s play but Thompson has played incredibly well as of late. Many Sabres fans will think back to his power play blast and shootout goal against Detroit as signs of the progress he has made. He has also looked much more comfortable in all
NHL Point Projections a Quarter of the Way in the Season

Now that every NHL team has played at least 20 games and we have made it past the important American Thanksgiving benchmark, I believe it is a good time to reevaluate our season point projections and see how teams are performing relative to my expectations. These projections are done using just about the same process
Should you Trust the Process? An Assessment of the Buffalo Bills’ Front Office

I try to stick mostly to hockey but weighing in on the Buffalo Bills is something I cannot continue to pass up. Let’s start by acknowledging I have rooted for the Buffalo Bills for approximately 15 years so nothing would make me happier than seeing the team succeed. Having said that, I can put aside
MLB FREE AGENCY PREDICTIONS AND PROJECTIONS

As MLB free agency is under way, we wanted to make some predictions on what we think could happen over the course of free agency. We’ve identified the top 10 unrestricted free agents on the market according to MLB.com . For the free agents, we have given contract projections that we arrived at using our
Clayton Kershaw: Should he opt out?

As MLB free agency heats up, we wanted to assess the decision Clayton Kershaw will has to make in the next few days. Should he opt out with the hopes of securing more money, or would be keeping his $65M guaranteed the smarter decision? Clayton Kershaw Team: Los Angeles Dodgers Contract Prediction: $282.3M over 6
Sam Reinhart Bridge Contract Analysis

If you have followed along with our work this summer, you will know I think teams are making poor financial decisions when they sign their restricted free agents (RFAs) to bridge contracts. We gave a presentation on this concept at the 4thRIT Sports Analytics Conference. You can view our talks and slides here We also
2018-2019 Point Predictions

The NHL season is just about a month away from puck drop, rosters are taking shape, and expectations for teams have been set. Since I have put the time and effort into running various point projection models, I figure I might as well post them. Some of the projections I like, others I question. I’m
Dear NHL Teams: Burn The Bridge Contract

INTRO The National Hockey League (NHL) is changing with a greater emphasis on speed and skill and that is being provided by younger players. Teams are building younger rosters than ever before and looking for significant contributions from their young players early on. With this trend, it is more critical than ever for teams to
Ryan O’Reilly Trade Analysis

The NHL offseason opened with a bang as shortly after the first hour of free agency, John Tavares announced that he would be taking his talents to Toronto. That alone sent shock-waves through the NHL. The teams that missed out on Tavares likely then turned their attention to the Buffalo Sabres and center Ryan O’Reilly.
NHL Free Agency Predictions and Projections

As NHL free agency inches ever closer we wanted to have a little fun and make some predictions about what we think could transpire over the next few days. We’ve identified five forwards and five defensemen to make some predictions on. Four in each category are unrestricted free agents while the other two are top
NHL 31 in 31 Season Review: Washington Capitals

Washington Capitals Next up in our 31 in 31 season review is a look at the Stanley Cup Champion Washington Capitals. This is also our final team review. Before we get into the review, I would like to thank everyone who has taken any time to read our reviews and gave us a follow. As
NHL 31 in 31 Season Review: Vegas Golden Knights

Vegas Golden Knights Next up in our 31 in 31 season review is a look at the Vegas Golden Knights, the record-setting expansion team that fell three wins short of winning the Stanley Cup. I think it is important to preface everything I write about the team with the fact that I, like many others,
NHL 31 in 31 Season Review: Winnipeg Jets

Before writing this review, I want to preface it with this. The Winnipeg Jets were one of my favorite teams to watch this season. The team played an aggressive style of hockey that allowed their skill players to flourish. Combine that with a solid young goaltender and defense core and you have the recipe for
NHL 31 in 31 Season Reviews: Tampa Bay Lightning

The Tampa Bay Lightning were among the Stanley Cup favorites when the season started, and the team was one of the most exciting teams to watch in all of hockey. The team failed to make the Finals and had to compromise future assets, but the team is still setup for long term success and will
NHL 31 in 31 Season Review: Nashville Predators

Nashville Predators Next up in our 31 in 31 season review is a look at the Nashville Predators. The team won the President’s Trophy for most points in the NHL but thanks to the current playoff structure lost to the league’s second-best team in the second round. The team has to be disappointed by how
NHL 31 in 31 Season Review: Boston Bruins

The Boston Bruins have had the same core of players for several seasons now, so it should not come as a surprise that the team was in the postseason yet again. The team outperformed expectations this season thanks to a new group of young players who were able to step up and perform well at
NHL 31 in 31 Season Review: Toronto Maple Leafs

The NHL is simply a more exciting league when the Toronto Maple Leafs are a competitive team and the team appears to be built to be competitive for a long time. It is not a secret that the Leafs fully bought into a youth movement and the team is set to reap the benefits for
NHL 31 in 31 Season Review: San Jose Sharks

The San Jose Sharks have been one of those teams you can pencil into the playoffs year in and year out for quite a while now. The core of Thornton, Couture and Pavelski have seen the playoffs often and the team has had various levels of success in the postseason. After their dismantling of the
NHL 31 in 31 Season Review: Anaheim Ducks

When the NHL season starts, it is usually a safe bet to pencil the Ducks into the playoffs. The team has only missed the playoffs twice since the 2004-2005 lockout year. This season was no different as the team qualified yet again. Unfortunately, they were a no show against the Sharks and got swept in
NHL 31 in 31 Season Review: Minnesota Wild

Minnesota Wild Next up in our 31 in 31 season review is a look at the Minnesota Wild. The Wild have been a fine team for many years now but once again fell to make any sort of deep playoff run. The constant wheel spinning and the perceived mismanagement of the Vegas Expansion draft seem
NHL 31 in 31 Season Review: Pittsburgh Penguins

Pittsburgh Penguins Next up in our 31 in 31 season review is a look at the Pittsburgh Penguins. Coming into the season looking for their third straight Stanley Cup, the Penguins entered the playoffs once again being thought of as cup contenders only to finally be bested by the Washington Capitals. The Penguins struggled at
NHL 31 in 31 Season Review: Los Angeles Kings

For the next 31 days, AFP Analytics is going to take a critical look back at how the season played out for all 31 NHL teams, starting with the last place team (Buffalo Sabres) and ending with the Stanley Cup Champions. In addition to a season recap, we will look at some major decisions the
NHL 31 in 31 Season Review: Philadelphia Flyers

The Philadelphia Flyers season can be defined by a pair of streaks, the ten-game losing streak and then the stretch of games that followed. The team had way too much talent to lose ten consecutive games so the team bouncing back strong was both a testament of character and a regression to the mean. The
NHL 31 in 31 Season Review: Columbus Blue Jackets

The Columbus Blue Jackets are an interesting case study in how a team can change a member or two of its “core” and still be successful. The team followed up a successful 2016 campaign with another playoff appearance in 2017. This year the team had to be hopeful to advance past the first round, especially
NHL 31 in 31 Season Review: New Jersey Devils

For the next 31 days, AFP Analytics is going to take a critical look back at how the season played out for all 31 NHL teams, starting with the last place team (Buffalo Sabres) and ending with the Stanley Cup Champions. In addition to a season recap, we will look at some major decisions the
NHL 31 in 31 Season Review: Colorado Avalanche

The Colorado Avalanche were able to do the impossible this past season. The team was able to make the jump from being the worst team in the league to making the playoffs. Ultimately Nashville was the superior team but even making the playoffs was a huge victory for the Avs. The team has a young
Alex Ovechkin: Overcoming the Playoff Doubters

The Washington Capitals are in the middle of their first Stanley Cup Final since 1998 and much has been made about the playoff career of Alex Ovechkin. There is a narrative surrounding Ovechkin and how he plays in the playoffs. His critics will be quick to point out the Capitals record in the playoffs with
NHL 31 in 31 Season Review: Florida Panthers

For the next 31 days, AFP Analytics is going to take a critical look back at how the season played out for all 31 NHL teams, starting with the last place team (Buffalo Sabres) and ending with the Stanley Cup Champions. In addition to a season recap, we will look at some major decisions the
31 in 31 NHL Season Review: St. Louis Blues

For the next 31 days, AFP Analytics is going to take a critical look back at how the season played out for all 31 NHL teams, starting with the last place team (Buffalo Sabres) and ending with the Stanley Cup Champions. In addition to a season recap, we will look at some major decisions the
Why the Smart Move is to Sign William Nylander to a Long-Term Deal

James Mirtle recently wrote a piece for The Athletic where he discussed the Toronto Maple Leafs’ options with William Nylander. The article can be found here I am a subscriber (and I think others should subscribe as well) so I don’t know if the piece can be read by non-subscribers. I will provide a very
NHL 31 in 31 Season Reviews: Dallas Stars

The Dallas Stars headed into the season with playoff aspirations but ultimately came up short in 2018. The team spent to the cap and played an exciting brand of hockey and even had a Corsi% better than 50% but the goaltending and play in their own end let them down. The team did spend to
31 in 31 NHL Season Review: Calgary Flames

For the next 31 days, AFP Analytics is going to take a critical look back at how the season played out for all 31 NHL teams, starting with the last place team (Buffalo Sabres) and ending with the Stanley Cup Champions. In addition to a season recap, we will look at some major decisions the
NHL 31 in 31 Season Review: Carolina Hurricanes

The Carolina Hurricanes are among the most interesting teams in hockey. They are analytics darlings, they have publicly stated they have bought into the analytics movement and are among the top teams in terms of both Corsi and Fenwick measurements. However, the team failed to make the playoffs despite being the best Corsi for %
31 in 31 NHL Season Review: New York Islanders

For the next 31 days, AFP Analytics is going to take a critical look back at how the season played out for all 31 NHL teams, starting with the last place team (Buffalo Sabres) and ending with the Stanley Cup Champions. In addition to a season recap, we will look at some major decisions the
NHL 31 in 31 Season Review: Edmonton Oilers

For the next 31 days, AFP Analytics is going to take a critical look back at how the season played out for all 31 NHL teams, starting with the last place team (Buffalo Sabres) and ending with the Stanley Cup Champions. In addition to a season recap, we will look at some major decisions the
31 in 31 NHL Season Review: New York Rangers

For the next 31 days, AFP Analytics is going to take a critical look back at how the season played out for all 31 NHL teams, starting with the last place team (Buffalo Sabres) and ending with the Stanley Cup Champions. In addition to a season recap, we will look at some major decisions the
31 in 31 NHL Season Review: Chicago Blackhawks

For the next 31 days, AFP Analytics is going to take a critical look back at how the season played out for all 31 NHL teams, starting with the last place team (Buffalo Sabres) and ending with the Stanley Cup Champions. In addition to a season recap, we will look at some major decisions the
NHL 31 in 31 Season Review: Vancouver Canucks

The Vancouver Canucks finished the season with 73 points. The team was entering a transition phase and now that the Sedin’s have announced their retirement the team will be able to fully transition to the future. The focus now shifts to their young talent and some of the players that played well in Utica in
NHL 31 in 31 Season Review: Detroit Red Wings

The Red Wings appear to be entering a bit of a down time after one of the most impressive playoff streaks in the history of the sport. The Wings came into this season without playoff expectations and the team performed right on par with what experts and fans expected before the season started. Questionable decision
NHL 31 in 31 Season Review: Montreal Canadiens

For the next 31 days, AFP Analytics is going to take a critical look back at how the season played out for all 31 NHL teams, starting with the last place team (Buffalo Sabres) and ending with the Stanley Cup Champions. In addition to a season recap, we will look at some major decisions the
NHL 31 in 31 Season Review: Arizona Coyotes

The Arizona Coyotes started the 2017-2018 season with higher expectations than previous seasons, but most fans and experts were realistic about just how well the team would perform. It was not a secret that the Coyotes were in the middle of a youth movement, but some of the offseason moves suggested the team was gearing
NHL 31 in 31 Season Review: Ottawa Senators

For the next 31 days, AFP Analytics is going to take a critical look back at how the season played out for all 31 NHL teams, starting with the last place team (Buffalo Sabres) and ending with the Stanley Cup Champions. In addition to a season recap, we will look at some major decisions the
NHL 31 in 31 Season Review: Buffalo Sabres

For the next 31 days, AFP Analytics is going to take a critical look back at how the season played out for all 31 NHL teams, starting with the last place team (Buffalo Sabres) and ending with the Stanley Cup Champions. In addition to a season recap, we will look at some major decisions the