With the holiday roster freeze nearly upon us and many teams having an idea of where they stand this season, now is a great time to start looking at some trades that would make a lot of sense. It has been a trend in the NHL to start making trades earlier and earlier and the unique way this season has played out so far and with a potential major prize to be had in the draft, with another potential superstar available some teams who have fallen well behind, might be best served to help get themselves the best odds at Jack Hughes. What is maybe the most interesting so far this season is there are multiple teams who are loaded with young talent and playing better than expected and multiple teams who have talented veterans that are well out of the playoff race already.

In this article series, I have chosen five teams from each division who I believe could look to make a trade to solidify their roster for this season and maybe beyond. I will start with the Atlantic division and work my way through the league. None of these trades have been pulled from thin air. I have looked at where the teams are weakest in their “advanced metrics.” I then filtered players by specified criteria and looked at whether they would make sense for a given team. I will attempt to put a price on some targets but may not be entirely accurate. I will also add this disclaimer: I am much more familiar with some teams’ farm systems than others so please forgive me if I am vaguer with some teams than others. Also, all stats were collected as of December 11^th.

Eastern Conference

Tampa Bay Lightning

Potential Need: Backup Goaltender

Andrei Vasilevskly has just returned from injury and the Lightning have to hope that he will start to stabilize the team in net. Prior to his return, the Lightning were giving up an astounding 15 more goals than expected during 5v5 play, which is third worst in the league. The team has continued to win in spite of this. For a team who is loaded everywhere else, they have to plan for the worst-case scenario and cannot consider going into the playoffs with Louis Domingue as the backup in case Vasilevskly goes down in the playoffs.

Potential Targets:

The Lightning could look to add someone with a little term as they likely will roll with Vasilevskly as their long-term starter and finding a veteran backup to play behind him for a few seasons would not be a bad idea at all. They could also opt for a short-term answer and reassess again in the offseason. Regardless, they have to address the position. I think the goalie who makes the most sense for the Lightning is Anders Nilsson from the Vancouver Canucks.

Nilsson is currently saving two more goals than average, which is nearly nine goals more than Domingue. He is also used to playing the backup role, which I think is something that needs to be considered. He carries a $2.5M cap hit, a number the Lightning could fit now or likely at any point in future as long as they don’t make any other major moves. He is also an unrestricted free agent (UFA) at season’s end so Tampa would not be locked in to him beyond this season. I can’t him costing more than a mid-round draft pick. I also think Vancouver might like to move him and clear a spot in their net for top goalie prospect, Thatcher Demko to get a taste of the NHL at the end of the season.

A few other options for the Lightning to consider are Thomas Greiss, Jimmy Howard, and Brian Elliott. However, there are consistency and injury concerns with Greiss and Elliott, and Howard comes with a higher cap hit and might be a hotter commodity at the deadline, which might require a higher payment on the Lightning’s part, which I don’t see necessary for a backup goalie. Howard would only make sense if there is any consideration of not riding Vasilevsky in the playoffs (which I don’t think there should be).

Predicted Trade: Lightning acquire Andreas Nilsson in exchange for a 4^thround pick and the trade occurs sometime after January 15^th.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Potential Need: Shot Suppressing Defender

BREAKING NEWS: The Toronto Maple Leafs’ biggest weakness is their blue line. Oh, wait that isn’t breaking news? I’m fairly confident there have been plenty of pieces written and discussions about where the Maple Leafs’ weaknesses are. Just in case you have been living under a rock and have chosen to read my piece before any others, I will give you some numbers to consider as to why the teams’ blueline is the problem. Toronto is hovering right around 50% in their shot share. However, they are giving up close to 62 shots per game, which is third worst in the league behind only Ottawa and Anaheim. They are loaded with talent at forward but lacking when it comes to defense. One of the issues I have seen while watching Leaf games is their defenders struggle to move the puck out of their zone, which I think is part of the reason they give up so many shots per game. Please note that I am drawing my own conclusions from watching only a few Leaf games. The Maple Leafs’ Stanley Cup window is opening and they should take every opportunity to maximize it. I think the biggest barrier for them is potentially Tampa Bay and there is no chance of getting by them if they are getting hemmed in their own zone for extended periods.

Potential Targets:

This offseason is going to be tough for Toronto so they may consider looking for someone on an expiring contract. I don’t think that is a bad idea but they will likely run into the same problem again next season unless they acquire someone with term. Considering a long-term solution on the blue line will likely require the team to move one of their young dynamic forwards, they could look for a short-term solution to make a run this year and then look to address the long-term issue in the offseason where it might be easier to stomach moving one of their young forwards. As far as on-ice performance goes, I looked for a defender who was better than average in terms of shots against. I also looked for players whose team was expected to outscore the other team while they were on the ice. Ironically, there are three players currently in Toronto’s organization that appear on this list, Travis Dermott, Igor Ozhiganov, and Martin Marincin. Just because these players passed my initial filter, I also recognize it is impractical for Toronto to heavily rely on them this season. Maybe they are long-term answers but Toronto should be in win-now mode and they aren’t going to get it done.

My filter produced a list of plenty of names and many of the league’s top defensemen appear (Brett Burns, Kris Letang, Ryan McDonagh, Victor Hedman, Jacob Slavin, Erik Karlsson, Mark Giordano, Brett Pesce, Dougie Hamilton, etc.). There are also some names that might not be expected. Adam Larsson appears so maybe the Leafs could trade Mitch Marner for him and make the trade one for one. Oh, wait Kyle Dubas is probably smart enough to not make that trade. So getting serious there are some names that have appeared that should be very interesting for Leaf fans. Outside of the Hurricane players that I have already listed, the remainder of their blue line appears in the list. There has been plenty of talk surrounding a Leafs-Hurricanes trade because of each team’s strengths and weaknesses. That makes plenty of sense. As Bob McKenzie discussed on a recent insider trading, a trade of Kasperi Kapanen or Andreas Johnsson for one of the Hurricane defensemen would work. Justin Faulk would probably be the most likely to be moved.

However, there are a few other names that are very interesting and could be available. Jared Spurgeon and Jonas Brodin from the Wild appear. I don’t know the Wild’s appetite for trading either of those players but they could probably move one of the two in exchange for a more cost controlled forward. I don’t think this is overly likely but Spurgeon in exchange for Marincin or Ozhiganov and Johnsson could be an interesting move.

The two names I would be most intrigued with for the Maple Leafs are the Los Angeles Kings’ Jake Muzzin and the Philadelphia Flyers’ Radko Gudas. The Kings are likely going to tear things down and the Flyers could be looking to shake things up. Muzzin likely will cost a high pick and a prospect. Maybe Kapanen or Johnsson would work in a one for one swap for Muzzin but both teams might be interested in sending future assets to Los Angeles. Muzzin comes with a very reasonable $4M cap hit for this season and the next. Gudas comes with only a $3.35M cap hit over the same time period as Muzzin. Gudas, of course, comes with plenty of baggage but has been surprisingly effective when not taking cheap shots on his opponents. I think Gudas could be acquired without losing a current key roster player. Connor Brown could be someone Philadelphia might be interested in and I think the Leafs would be ok to move him.

If I were running the Maple Leafs, I would make a strong run for one of Muzzin or Gudas as my goal would be to find someone who could be acquired while keeping as many current roster players as possible. I also like the idea of acquiring someone who is signed next season to a very reasonable cap hit as this offseason is going to be a cap squeeze for Toronto.

Predicted Trade: Toronto acquires Jake Muzzin with the Kings retaining 50% of the salary in exchange for a 2019 1^stround pick, 2020 second round pick, and a mid-level prospect

Buffalo Sabres

Potential Need: A second or third line player that will help drive offense

The Sabres are one of the most surprising teams this season. They are loaded with young players and were expected to improve but not quite at the rate they have. Barring a major collapse, the Sabres should be back in the playoffs for the first time in seven years. Not only are the currently one of the top teams NHL teams, their AHL affiliate, the Rochester Americans are also at the top of the standings and boast some impressive young talent as well. Expanding things further, the Sabres have one of the highest regarded farm systems in the league. They also own four first-round draft picks in the next two drafts, including one from the St. Louis Blues that is protected this year but would become unprotected next year. In short, the Sabres have the assets to make moves if they desire. I wouldn’t expect Jason Botterill to push all his chips into the center of the table but he might be willing to move some.

Potential Targets:

With the Sabres being well positioned to be a consistent contender for years to come, I’m not sure they will be looking for short-term additions. However, I think they should and will strongly consider adding someone who can play a second/third-line role but has some term on their contract. The Sabres will have some serious money coming off their books each of the next few offseasons. However, they will hope to be shelling out big money for Jeff Skinner, Sam Reinhart, Rasmus Dahlin, Casey Mittelstadt, Tage Thompson, Lawrence Pilut, Alex Nylander, and Brenden Guhle. I say the Sabres hope they will have to shell out big money for those players because that will mean all of them will have reached near star potential. Obviously, that is unlikely to happen but it certainly has to be a consideration. Regardless, the Sabres need to be mindful that in two to three seasons, they could have multiple $9M – $11M cap hits on their books. The salary cap is rising but adding players with significant term might handicap the team down the road. Instead, they should be looking at players with two to three years remaining. In terms of on-ice performance, I looked for players who improved their teams’ offensive performance when they are on the ice. The numbers I looked at were relative shots % and relative expected goals for %. They are ninth worst generating 52 shots per game and fifth worst with an expected goals for of 51, respectively.

The list of players who fit these criteria is extensive but many are players who will never be traded. Additionally, there is likely going to be plenty of competition for the players who could be traded from this list and that could drive the price up. The Sabres might decide that the price is ultimately too high and stand pat. If they do decide to make a move, I have a couple of targets that could make a lot of sense. I have heard the name, Brayden Schenn thrown around plenty of times as a potential target for the Sabres. He would certainly be near the top of my list if I were in charge and I would look to give St. Louis their 1^stround pick back. I think it could also take another higher pick or a mid to high-level prospect, like Brenden Guhle. Jaden Schwartz is another Blue player that fits the bill. Both players have cap hits just over $5M with Schenn having this season and next remaining while Schwartz has an additional season.

I don’t think a trade with the Blues happens without St. Louis getting their first-round pick back. If the Sabres decide that is an asset that they would rather hold on to because of the possibility of it becoming a high pick, there are four other players that I like a lot as a fit for the Sabres. They are the Los Angeles Kings’ Tyler Toffoli ($4.6M, 2 years), New Jersey Devils’ Kyle Palmieri ($4.65M, 3 years), and Minnesota Wild’s Nino Niederreiter ($5.25M cap hit, 4 years) and Mikael Granlund ($5.75M, 2 years). I have heard another Wild player, Charlie Coyle connected to the Sabres. He did not meet my criteria. Out of those four names, Toffoli makes the most sense, in my opinion. I like Niederreiter a lot as a player and he would bea solid addition to the Sabres’ middle six as a possession driving player. The term and cap hit would be a concern and I don’t see Minnesota overly interested in retaining salary unless the Sabres make it worth it. I think the Kings would be very interested in Brenden Guhle as he would add some much-needed speed to their blue line. It would probably take him in addition to a first-round pick to start conversations. Tage Thompson could also be of interest to them, but I’m not sure Buffalo would be willing to trade him just yet. I think a trade with the Wild would have to start with Alex Nylander and the Devils would be interested in him as well. Victor Olofsson could also be of interest to any of these teams as he could develop into a lethal power play weapon. The Wild would also want someone who could come in and help them immediately as well. Maybe a player like Evan Rodrigues fits that bill.

Predicted Trade: Buffalo acquires Brayden Schenn and retains 10% of cap hit in exchange for St. Louis’s 2019 first round pick, Brenden Guhle, CJ Smith, and Matt Moulson and retains 10% of cap hit.

Boston Bruins

Potential Need: Special Team Help

The Bruins’ biggest need is probably a magic wand to keep all their players healthy. Since that’s not possible, we will look at the power play and penalty kill. Boston has an expected goal for on the power play of 16, which ranks 22^ndout of 31 in the NHL. They also have been expected to allow 22 goals against on the penalty kill which only trails Anaheim and Detroit. A healthy Patrice Bergeron will certainly help but a player who can add some depth and contribute on special teams would be a smart add for the Bruins who, when healthy, should be able to contend with the best in the NHL.

Potential Targets:

Although this player has not killed penalties yet this season, he has been successful in past times in his career. Additionally, he is a player that is has been on the ice for more expected power play goals than the Bruins have generated. He also is a veteran player with no years remaining on his contract and has been a quality depth player for much of his career. That player in Brian Boyle. The Bruins could certainly use some help at bottom six center and Boyle would also improve their special teams. The only concern is whether he will have the physical ability to play all penalty kill, power play, and 5v5 play.

Finding someone to help their power play, based on my criteria, will be difficult as many of the players aren’t likely to be traded. However, I think there a few interesting options that could improve their penalty kill and their bottom six depth. Ironically, former Bruin, Tim Schaller, and current Canuck, is one of those players. Additionally, the Sabres’ Zemgus Girgensons and Vladimir Sobotka, the Canucks’ Markus Granlund, Ben Hutton, Tyler Motte, the Devils’ Blake Coleman, and the Rangers’ Jesper Fast all appear. I don’t think the Sabres would help the Bruins but that still leaves plenty of options. I like Fast best of those options.

Predicted Trade: Bruins acquire Brian Boyle in exchange for a third-round pick

Montreal Canadiens

Potential Need: Better goaltending

The Canadiens have been having a quietly solid season, especially when you look at some of their “beyond the box score numbers.” Their biggest problem is they are giving up 10 more goals than expected. That can’t happen when they are paying a goalie $10.5M. They really need Carey Price to play at a higher level. However, like Tampa, their bigger problem is their backup, Antti Niemi, who is giving up six more goals than expected. Although it would not be ideal to commit more salary cap space to goalies, the team is in fairly decent shape when it comes to their salary cap so they could look to add someone who would be a more reliable backup for a couple years.

Potential Targets:

Here, I will direct you to reread the targets for the Lightning as I think many of the same should be on the Canadiens’ radar. Since I have the Lightning acquiring Nilsson, I will predict the Canadiens hone in on Brian Elliott. However, I think it could also be smart for the Canadiens to stand pat and roll with their current roster. They probably aren’t quite talented enough across the board to make a serious run this year and being patient and letting their young players develop might be the smart play.

PredictedTrade: Canadiens acquire Brian Elliott in exchange for a third-round pick and Antti Niemi

Let us know your thoughts on Twitter (@afpanalytics) and be sure to follow us as we work our way through the other divisions

Next Up: A look at the Metro division

Statistics courtesy of Corsica.hockey and contract data courtesy of capfriendly.com.

KYLE STICH is the Director of AFP Analytics.  In addition, Mr. Stich is a tax specialist and Director of Operations at AFP Consulting LLC, whose clientele include professional athletes performing services on three separate continents. Mr. Stich earned his Master of Science in Sport Management with a Concentration in Sport Analytics from Columbia University in 2017. He earned his undergraduate degrees in Accounting and Sport Management from St. John Fisher College in 2015, where he has served as an adjunct professor teaching Sport Finance and Baseball Analytics.

The NHL is simply a more exciting league when the Toronto Maple Leafs are a competitive team and the team appears to be built to be competitive for a long time. It is not a secret that the Leafs fully bought into a youth movement and the team is set to reap the benefits for the years to come. The team will have some tough decisions to make this offseason with members of the “old core” but the new core looks set to take over.

Bright Spots

The first bright spot worth mentioning here is obviously Nikita Zaitsev. Kidding of course, Auston Matthews is the heartbeat and future captain of the team and it should come as no surprise that he is the first bright spot I will focus on. He scored 34 goals and had 29 assists in only 62 games. There is not much I can say that has not already been said so I will try to focus on some unique stats that other articles of this nature may not have noticed. The focus will always be on his offensive talent, and rightfully so, but he is great without the puck in his own end as well. He blocks passes in the defensive zone and even blocks more than 1 shot per 20 minutes. This should not come as a surprise because a player of Matthews’ skill level just knows where to be at all times when he is on the ice. it is a testament to his hockey sense, which is difficult to measure but when looking at numbers like this it starts to make more sense. Before I move on from Matthews I wanted to point out an offensive statistic that separates Matthews from other high-end skill players. His ability to get to the slot and get pucks on net is comparable to Alex Ovechkin, he gets more than 2 shots on next per 20 minutes from the slot, a rate good enough to be near the top of the league.

Two years ago, William Nylander was the young player who burst onto the scene alongside Matthews. Nylander had another solid campaign in 2017 but if when the history of the Leafs is being written 2017 will be remembered and the year that Mitch Marner came out of his shell. Marner scored 22 goals and set up 47 more, good for 69 points, 8 more than he had in the previous season. Losing to Boston hurt but Marner was fantastic in the series, amassing 9 points in the seven games. He looks like a great complement to the Matthews-Nylander line. He also was a great possession player, his 53.6% Corsi was one of the best on the team. The high volume of assists should mean the following statistics should not come as a surprise. Marner had a pass to the slot success rate of 42% and was able to make 1.62 successful passes to the slot per 20 minutes. In other words, he is great at setting up players in the best positions to score. Marner should continue to develop and get stronger, if he can up his individual goal total the Leafs will have a two headed monster in Marner and Matthews.

It looks like the Leafs may have found half of their top pair moving forward. Twenty-four-year-old Morgan Rielly played top minutes and excelled in his time on ice. he produced 52 points on the year and is great to have on the powerplay to pair up with the skilled forwards. It is no secret that his biggest strength is his offensive upside and the statistics only further that ideology. He makes about 4.5 plays per 20 minutes (5v5) that generate scoring chances for the Leafs. Toronto is at its best off the rush and Rielly is among the best in the league at executing stretch passes. These passes get the pucks up ice to forwards quickly and Toronto has more than enough skill up front to capitalize. Some of his defensive numbers are not as impressive but I think Rielly is a fitting example of the idea that the best defense is a good offense. He is a positive Corsi player and a big focus of the Leafs plan moving forward must be finding a defensive minded partner to play big minutes alongside Rielly.

Perhaps that option may already be on the roster. Travis Dermott was called up in January and was a mainstay on the roster for the remainder of the season. Some of his defensive measurables are among the best in the league from the time he was called up. He denied more than half of the zone entries where he was defined as the primary defender. Dermott is not the biggest player, he is only 6 feet tall and weighs 208 pounds, but he uses his body and stick well. He does well to win contested puck battles and recoveries opponents dump-ins at a high rate. The only issue with a Dermott/Rielly pairing is the fact that they are both lefthanded shots. Teams prefer having a right-handed defenseman to play opposite the lefties. Regardless, Dermott should slot into the top four in Toronto for years to come.

Major Disappointments

The Leafs must have been sick of being pushed around by the Bruins in the division because the team went out and signed Matt Martin after the 2015-2016 season. This past year he only appeared in 50 games and was a healthy scratch late in the season. His cap hit is $2.5M which is not a complete disaster, but the team would certainly like a player making that much money to be in the lineup night in and night out. For reference, Zach Hyman played with Auston Matthews for most of the year and his cap hit was only $2.25M. Martin plays a heavy game and the numbers back that up but unfortunately there is not much else he brings to the table.

Leo Komarov was another interesting case for the Leafs. In my opinion he was one of the worst forwards on the roster. He did play a defensive role, he only had a 20% offensive zone start rate and he often played against top competition. However, that role can be filled by several players who would not cost as much as Komarov ($2.95M). His Corsi% was 45.2%, which is one of the worst on the team. In the bright spot section, I highlighted how good Matthews and Marner are with the puck on their stick. In this section I will explain how much Komarov struggled. He rarely possessed the puck in the offensive zone, he only had possession for 18 seconds during every 20 minutes of ice time. The real issue is with his defensive metrics, for a forward who is supposed to play a shutdown role his numbers are not very impressive. He is a good shot blocker and does a decent job denying entries but once the puck is in the zone he appears to be a step slow. When Komarov is on the ice opponents register, 3 scoring chances that are considered “off the cycle”. Essentially it means teams can possess the puck and create chances against the Leafs when Komarov is on the ice. Luckily for the Leafs he is a pending UFA, so the team could decide to let him walk and test the market.

Lastly, there are some defenseman that should be written about in this section. To say Roman Polak had a tough year would be putting it gently. The 32-year-old veteran appeared in 54 games this year. He had a sub-50% Corsi (47.4%) and I think this happened because he is not a very good passer. His outlet passes are only successful 60% of the time, the number drops to 50% when the pass is extended to be considered a stretch pass. In other words, he is not very good at moving the puck up ice away from the Leaf net. He was a physical presence, but I would be surprised if the Leafs also opt to let him leave the team this offseason.

Offseason Plan

The first issue I would tackle if I were Kyle Dubas would be to lock up William Nylander long-term. Nylander is a productive player who will be in his prime during the contract and the team will have a “big 3” of Matthews, Marner and Nylander moving forward. A 5-7-year deal with an AAV of somewhere between 7 and 9 million dollars seems right for Nylander. He is an exciting young talent but does not command 10M and it makes sense for him to be the second or third highest paid player on a team. Auston Matthews will get a megadeal, so locking up Nylander for less would be good for the team and the player. The easy comparison is to Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl in Edmonton, Toronto will want to have something similar moving forward. We previously wrote why signing Nylander long-term makes the most sense. That article can be found here.

Signing Nylander seems like a no brainer for the Leafs but that is the only easy choice they will make this offseason. The team has 22M in cap space but for arguments sake let’s assume they have 16M after resigning Nylander. Members of the old core are all UFAs and I am curious to see how Dubas will handle the situation. Tyler Bozak, Leo Komarov and James van Riemsdyk have all been with the team for an extended period and will be able to test the market. Tomas Plekanec was acquired during the season and he will also be a UFA. I would not be surprised if Dubas lets all the players walk. When a new General Manager is hired it seems like he is always looking to put his stamp on the team. Dubas has worked extensively with the Toronto Marlies and is very familiar with young prospects like Kasperi Kapanen, Jeremy Bracco and Timothy Liljegren. It would not come as a surprise if two, or maybe even three, of these players start the season in the NHL next year.

I mentioned what Dubas could do but now I will mention what I would do. I would let Plekanec, Komarov, van Riemsdyk, Polak and Dominic Moore sign elsewhere. James Van Riemsdyk Is the one player on the list that some would argue the Leafs should keep. To me, it comes down to JVR or Tyler Bozak. I would choose Bozak because I like him as a player, but it is more about value. Van Riemsdyk is going to sign a big money contract on July 1^st and I am always wary of giving out big contracts in free agency. JVR is 29 and Bozak is 32, so in theory both players are already past their primes. If van Riemsdyk is not past his prime, he is certainly at the tail end. Regardless, he figures to sign for at least 5 years and should make at least 5-5.5M per season. This means his contract would end at age 34, I would rather sign Bozak until he is 35 at a contract with a cap hit closer to $4M. Bozak plays a solid two-way game at center and would be very difficult to replace in the Leaf lineup. JVR is talented but I think it is reasonable to expect the much younger Kapanen to produce at a similar level at a much more team friendly cost.

Even if the team fills some slots with younger players I would expect the team to be relatively active in the free agent market. However, it might not be in the way fans might expect from the Leafs. Kyle Dubas does not seem like the type to throw big money at the biggest names, instead I would expect hm to try to find value where other teams are not looking. I would not be surprised if Toronto ended up signing a handful of $1.5-3M dollar players who are minimal risk but have a chance to be high reward players. Michael Grabner is a name that comes to mind, while his price may be a bit higher than the $3M his statistics make him seem like a player Dubas and his team might covet.

Regardless of what actions Dubas takes the Leafs have a strong young core that should be competitive for a playoff spot. It will be interesting to see how the team handles the heightened expectations and how potential changes will impact the style of play. Assuming Mike Babcock and Auston Matthews have handled their rumored issues the core of the Leafs should have the team competing with the Boston and Tampa Bay for the top spot in the division again next season.

Please be sure to check in again tomorrow as we take an in-depth look at the Boston Bruins. If you enjoyed this review, please follow us on Twitter, @afpanalytics, and share it with your friends!

Stats have been pulled from NaturalStatTrick.com and Corsica.hockey. Salary info from Capfriendly.com

JUSTIN WHITE is an intern AFP Analytics. Justin is a graduate of St. John Fisher College where he earned his degree in Sport Management and Statistics. He has worked with the Rochester Americans and members of their coaching staff on various analytics and statistics-based projects.

James Mirtle recently wrote a piece for The Athletic where he discussed the Toronto Maple Leafs’ options with William Nylander. The article can be found here

I am a subscriber (and I think others should subscribe as well) so I don’t know if the piece can be read by non-subscribers. I will provide a very quick summary of the discussion. The Leafs basically have two options, sign Nylander to a long-term contract or a short-term contract, commonly referred to as a bridge deal. Mirtle went through a tremendous breakdown of determining an approximate value for a long-term versus short-term contract. He ultimately concluded that the team would be best off signing Nylander to a long-term contract. I agree with this assessment (though differ in how many years) and I wanted to write a short discussion of why that is correct.

I have a background in finance so my mind is always coming back to the bottom line. It is my belief that a hockey team’s goal when managing their salary cap is to minimize the total cap hit in today’s dollars. In the finance world, there is a belief that a dollar today is worth more than a dollar in the future because that dollar can be invested or the price of goods will increase due to inflation in the future.

For those unfamiliar with this concept, think of it this way. Today, I have one dollar in my pocket. When I go to the store, I see a chocolate bar costs one dollar. I could also invest that dollar in something that pays 10% every year. Therefore, my dollar would be worth $1.10 next year, $1.21 the next, etc. Let’s assume I didn’t buy that chocolate bar and didn’t invest that dollar. Let’s fast forward five years in the future. I am back at the same store and that same chocolate bar is $1.16 due to the price rising at the rate of inflation (~3%). That dollar bill I kept in my wallet can no longer buy that chocolate bar!

You can also reverse the idea and say, if I know I want a chocolate bar in five years, what should I spend today to make it worth it? If I know in five years the chocolate bar will cost $1.16 and from today till then inflation will be ~3%, we can convert the future dollars into today’s dollars. If you’ve been reading up to this point, you will know that the breakeven point would be $1 in today’s dollar. This means if I see a chocolate bar selling for $.99 I should, in theory, buy it and save it for five years from now when I know I will want it and will have to spend $1.16 because I will have saved $.01 on the bar! That $.01 saved seems insignificant but think about what would happen if instead of talking about $1, you are talking about $1M dollars. You now saved $10,000. If the idea still unclear, I suggest doing a little more research or take me at my word.

Now that we understand the concept (or are just going to trust that I am correct), let’s get back why this matters in hockey. The goal of any team should be to minimize the impact of a contract in today’s dollars. I think too many times teams fail to recognize that they are voluntarily sacrificing cap space, in terms of present value, for minimal immediate cap relief. This is what happens nearly every time a team signs a player to a bridge contract, followed by a long-term contract. I’m not going to say what I am about to discuss is an absolute but the pure math suggests it should be the case. Today, I am just going to look at William Nylander and do a very quick analysis but later during the summer I will dive much deeper into this analysis.

For this discussion, I am solely going to go off of Mirtle’s numbers. He concludes that a long-term contract for Nylander should be around $49M/7 years. He also suggests if they go the bridge contract route, it could be for $10M/2 years. To do an apples to apples comparison, I then assumed Nylander would sign a five year contract after the bridge to keep him with the team for the same seven yeats. I also looked at the numbers if total length was eight years opposed to seven. I kept the same long-term and bridge deal AAV. For reference, Nylander would be 30 years old at the end of an eight-year contract.

Let’s look at the numbers. I used a discount rate of 4.59%, which was the average cap increase since the lockout. The charts show different contract lengths and for the bridge contracts show the future cap hit that would cause the bridge contract and long-term contract to break even. A future cap hit lower than the number shown, means the Maple Leafs would save money while anything above means the team would spend more money, in terms of present value.

I would favor going eight years. Here are those numbers:

As you can see, regardless of the contract lengths, the long-term contract immediately should result in cap savings for the Leafs’ in today’s dollars. The way I look at it, Nylander would have to regress for the Leafs to actually save money in today’s dollars, if they go the bridge deal option. If the bet is for the player to regress, then the team should be looking to trade Nylander because betting on that makes zero sense. I favor the eight-year contract because it keeps Nylander until he turns 30 and then the team can freely walk away at the point where the team is likely to start to see significant regression.

I want to reiterate there are other factors at play and this analysis can’t take place in a vacuum. The team will be committing significant dollars to Matthews and Marner, that will kick in next offseason. However, that could incentivize the team going big right away because they can’t afford to pay significantly more after a bridge contract. The 2019-2020 season could be a little pain, especially with the Marleau contract still on the books, but the one season pain would likely be offset by the long-term gain. The other consideration is will Nylander get complacent if he gets the long-term deal. With no intimate knowledge of the team, I will avoid speculating but it certainly has to be considered.

Overall, Mirtle’s conclusion of the smart move for the Leafs would be a long-term Nylander deal is confirmed through a relatively simple time value of money calculation. If you enjoyed this discussion, please follow us on Twitter, @afpanalytics, as we produce more content like this. I will be doing an even more in-depth analysis regarding this concept this summer but wanted to get this up and out as it is current.

KYLE STICH is the Director of AFP Analytics.  In addition, Mr. Stich is a tax specialist and Director of Operations at AFP Consulting LLC, whose clientele include professional athletes performing services on three separate continents. Mr. Stich earned his Master of Science in Sport Management with a Concentration in Sport Analytics from Columbia University in 2017. He earned his undergraduate degrees in Accounting and Sport Management from St. John Fisher College in 2015, where he has served as an adjunct professor teaching Sport Finance and Baseball Analytics.