Grading Buffalo Sabres’ GM Jason Botterill: Part 1, Trades

The Buffalo Sabres recently announced that they would retain General Manager Jason Botterill for a fourth season. The decision to do so has not gone over well with the fans of the team as most believe that he has done a generally poor job in his role. I personally haven’t thought that he has done a great job but I also don’t know if going through another regime change, especially given all of the uncertainty in the world right now would be the best course of action for the organization. In this article series, I am going to go through every single move he has made since taking over the organization and grade them. I am going to break the series into four parts: NHL trades, NHL signings, the draft, and minor league management, and overall organizational management. I will provide an individual grade for every move, a grade for each segment, and finally an overall grade.

Before I begin grading, I should set my rubric and the guidelines on how I will arrive at the grade for every move. A good general manager needs to do two things well. First, they need to make good decisions. Second, they need to have good results. In my opinion, when grading a general manager, more weight should be placed on the decision-making process as it needs to be sound to lead to positive results. That said, there are some results that can be predicted and it is a decision maker’s job to do so. As I work through my grading, I will do my best to be objective. I will consider everything from advanced metrics to the current situation of the team. Ultimately though, these will be my opinions that I will try to back with reason.

The first part of the series will look at the trades he made involving regular NHL players. I have discussed the trades in chronological order from oldest to most recent.

Trade for Nathan Beaulieu

Details: Buffalo Acquired D Nathan Beaulieu from Montreal for a 3^rd round pick (68^th overall)

Botterill’s first player move as a general manager was to add more speed and mobility to the blueline, something that was desperately lacking from the team he inherited. Beaulieu is a defenseman with great speed and puck-moving abilities. He was an odd man out in Montreal but still young enough where it seemed like he could improve. During Beaulieu’s first three years in the league, the Canadiens improved in controlling both shot quantity and quality while he was on the ice. The next two seasons, leading up to him being traded, saw things go south.

When Botterill acquired Beaulieu, there were signs of things going the wrong direction but there had also been signs of strong play earlier in his career. He was a player that had “change of scenery” written all over him. I think overall Beaulieu fit a need for the Sabres and Botterill was able to acquire him for a reasonable price of a third-round pick. Once Beaulieu got to Buffalo, he seemed to fall out of favor for glaring mistakes. However, his metrics were pretty solid for a bottom four defenseman and really did not get a fair chance in Buffalo. It isn’t Botterill’s job to make day to day lineup decisions but he should have had some organizational support/structure in place to assist the coaching staff with lineup decisions. I think there is a lot to like about the process and decision to make the trade but the results did not work out.

Grade: B

Enticing Vegas to take Carrier Opposed to Ullmark

Details: Buffalo gave Vegas a 6^th round pick to take William Carrier instead of Linus Ullmark in the expansion draft

This “trade” had mostly been put in place by the previous general manager, Tim Murray, but ultimately Botterill still had to finalize it and could have pulled the plug if he wanted. The Sabres had exactly two desirable assets in the expansion draft, William Carrier and Linus Ullmark. Carrier has turned into a nice role player for Vegas and probably would have been the same in Buffalo. However, allowing Vegas to take Ullmark for nothing would have devastated the organization as he has been the best goalie (not a super high bar to clear) in the organization for the past couple of years. Giving up a 6thround pick to lose a 4th line player instead of a potential number one goalie is a major win. The team got a peek at what life was without him when he was injured this season and the results weren’t pretty. Some of you reading this will probably think I gave Botterill too much credit here but in most group projects in school, everyone gets the same grade. Here, Botterill benefits from having someone else do much of the work but not messing it up at the end.

Grade: A

Trade for Jason Pominville & Marco Scandella

Details: Buffalo acquires Jason Pominville, Marco Scandella and a 4^th round pick from Minnesota for Tyler Ennis, Marcus Foligno, and a 3^rd round pick.

Jason Botterill’s first couple moves as GM were aimed at shoring up the team’s defense. Much like his trade for Beaulieu, he identified a team that seemed to have a surplus of defensemen and were open to trading them. The best piece in this trade ended up being Jason Pominville. The idea of acquiring a Wild defenseman made a lot of sense. The price of Tyler Ennis and Marcus Foligno was not steep. If anything, trading them away was a net positive for Botterill as injuries had dramatically reduced Ennis’s effectiveness and he was under a contract that paid him more than the value he was providing. Although Foligno had a tremendous season in 2018-2019, he was nothing more than a 3^rd line winger, which isn’t overly valuable in terms of trade value, and didn’t project any higher either.

The knock Botterill gets for this trade is that he settled for Scandella. Minnesota likely would have traded one of Scandella, Brodin, or Spurgeon (more likely one of the first two). Of those Scandella was clearly the weakest. Much like Beaulieu, Scandella had started off strong but saw a drop in play in the two seasons leading up to the trade as the Wild did worse in both shot quantity and quality with him on the ice. Had Botterill viewed Scandella as the bottom four defenseman he really was, this trade would have been a home run. However, Botterill thought Scandella could handle playing on the top pair with Ristolainen and matchup with the opposing team’s top players. That was never going to be the case and his failure to realize that was an issue. Botterill still gets high marks for this trade as a lot of the thought process behind this makes trade made a lot of sense.

Grade: B+

Trades Away Evander Kane

Details: Buffalo acquired Danny O’Regan, a conditional 1^st (conditions met), conditional 4^th (stayed as 4^th) for Evander Kane.

The Sabres’ play early in the season quickly signaled that they would miss out on the playoffs so the clock was ticking on making a decision on Kane early in the season. I think Botterill could have justified re-signing him or trading him. Under no circumstances could he allow Kane to walk away for nothing. In my opinion, the total return was very underwhelming as the Sabres were not guaranteed a 1^st-round pick. I’m sure Botterill took the best offer at the time but there were probably better trade offers to be had earlier in the season that he failed to make. Kane was not the most tradeable player in the league but he did produce offensively and should have had some appeal as a rental. Botterill turned him into a low-level prospect who had shown no indication of being able to be a full-time NHLer and two draft picks that he later traded away. Botterill doesn’t fail this trade but he certainly doesn’t get high marks either.

Grade: D+

Acquires Matt Hunwick and Conor Sheary

Details: Sabres acquire Matt Hunwick and Conor Sheary from Pittsburgh for a conditional 4^th round pick that became third based on player performance (stayed a 4^th)

In this trade, Botterill had cap space and a need for some depth scoring. He weaponized the cap space to add Sheary for a low cost by also absorbing Matt Hunwick’s contract. The addition of Sheary made complete sense. He had success playing along highly skilled centers (Crosby and Malkin) in Pittsburgh so pairing him with Eichel seemed great in theory. The worst-case would be provided some scoring depth for a low price. Hunwick inexplicitly played some games for Buffalo and was not good in the few games he played. That was probably more of a coaching issue though Botterill gets some blame for even providing the option.

The results of this trade were not good as neither player contributed much at all. The good news is the draft pick was conditional and did not get upgraded. Although Botterill gets knocked a little for that, this was a home run trade on paper at the time the trade was executed. Sheary was decent when looking beyond his basic box score statistics as the Sabres were better when he was on the ice BUT he just couldn’t produce points which was a major issue.

Grade: A-

Ryan O’Reilly Trade

Details: Sabres acquire Patrik Berglund, Vladmir Sobotka, Tage Thompson, a conditional 1^st round pick and a 2021 2^ndround pick

Everyone knows this was Botterill’s worst move as GM and probably the main reason fans are still so upset with him as the team has not recovered from it. There is no doubt this was bad but at the time, there was some rationale for trading O’Reilly but the return he got was dreadful. The Sabres were a top-heavy team that was in desperate need of forward depth. O’Reilly was coming off a down season (when he wasn’t playing with Sam Reinhart, the team was worse with him on the ice during 5v5 play) and he had expressed his displeasure publicly. There also was (and still is) some concern with the length of his contract and his future value. 

To me, the idea of trading O’Reilly could have been defendable but the return is not in any way. Patrik Berglund and Vladmir Sobotka were never going to be impact players. They were going to come in and be, at best, third line players. If both players needed to be included for financial reasons to get a better overall package for the Sabres, it would have been one thing. However, those two players were centerpieces of the trade and didn’t help improve the Sabres’ haul. With those two players included, the Sabres should have demanded Robert Thomas be included in addition to Thompson or multiple unprotected 1st round picks. Additionally, Botterill needed to have a better plan for the second-line center than Berglund and/or Mittelstadt (maybe it should have been Sam Reinhart). Ultimately, nothing about the trade made sense or worked out and the team is still recovering from this trade.

Grade: F

Acquire Jeff Skinner

Details: Buffalo acquires Jeff Skinner for Cliff Pu, 2019 2^nd round pick, 2020 3^rd round & 6^th round picks

Just like everyone knows the O’Reilly trade was awful, everyone knows the Jeff Skinner trade was a homerun. I think people forget about how lopsided this trade was. It is incredible that Botterill was able to make a horrible trade and follow it up not long after with an excellent trade. Skinner was everything and more for what the team needed. The line of Skinner, Eichel, and Reinhart kept the team in the playoff mix into March almost singlehandedly. The assets Botterill gave up had little value.

Grade: A

Acquire Brandon Montour 

Details: Buffalo acquires Brandon Montour for Brandon Guhle and the higher of previously acquired 1^st round picks

This was an interesting trade by Botterill. Even after some changes to the blueline, the Sabres were still in need of a fast-skating, puck-moving defenseman and that is exactly what Montour brings. However, Guhle also provides some of those same traits but was much less polished. The idea of “upgrading” from Guhle to Montour made sense. It also helped the team balance their left and right shots. However, Montour has still not settled into a role in Buffalo mostly because Botterill has failed to alleviate a logjam he created. Montour should ideally be playing second pair (or maybe top pair) minutes (on the right side) and quarterbacking the second power-play unit. 

I question the price Botterill paid to get Montour. To me, the price should have been a mid-round pick or prospect plus one of Guhle or a 1^st round pick. Using the 1^st round pick to marginally upgrade Brandon Guhle seemed a little strange to me but I also don’t think this was a terrible trade either.

Grade: C

Trades Away Nathan Beaulieu

Details: Buffalo acquires a 6^th round pick in exchange for Nathan Beaulieu

As discussed above, Beaulieu never found his footing in Buffalo and the coaching staff deserves a lot of blame for that. However, his underlying numbers were solid for a bottom four defenseman. Beaulieu publicly made his displeasure known and once that happens the returns are fairly limited. It seems like Beaulieu’s value was hurt somewhat by Botterill holding on for him for so long. A sixth-round pick for a serviceable defenseman with a decent contract and RFA status is not great compensation but something is better than keeping him and letting him walk for nothing in summer.

Grade: C-

Acquires Colin Miller

Details: Buffalo acquires defenseman Colin Miller in exchange for a 2021 2^nd round pick and 2022 5^th round pick.

On paper, this trade had the markings of another homerun trade for Botterill. When Miller was on the ice, an already good Vegas team performed even better. His advanced metrics were very good. It seemed like Miller would be a perfect fit in the top four in Buffalo and maybe even on the top pair as Rasmus Dahlin’s partner. It seemed like Miller’s acquisition would finally allow Buffalo to move on from Rasmus Ristolainen and recoup or even add assets as they had just found a better, cheaper option. 

It took Miller some time to find his footing in Buffalo and finished the shortened season by seeing the team was overall better with him on the ice than when he was off. Miller was not the immediate impact player that Buffalo was hoping and him and Dahlin together early in the season was a disaster (some of that blame also falls on Dahlin). Part of the problem for Miller was his usage was less than ideal for much of the season. Although there were signs that he could maybe slot on the top pair, it became clear that it wasn’t a good idea. Miller also had been given significant power-play time in Vegas as he has a bomb of a shot from the backend. However, Buffalo preferred to use Dahlin and Ristolainen over Miller so he was forced to share the remaining time with Brandon Montour. Confidence goes a long way in hockey and Miller’s seemed shot early but he did rebound as the season went on.

Overall, Botterill gets high marks for this trade as he again capitalized on a team tight to the cap and acquired a quality player for a reduced price. The problem with this trade is it added to an already stocked blueline and created a bigger logjam than one that already existed. Please note, I will have a grade specifically for this aspect of roster management later on so this grade will mostly reflect the acquisition of Miller.

Grade: B+

Acquires Jimmy Vesey

Details: Buffalo acquires Jimmy Vesey for a 2021 3^rd round pick

This was an interesting trade that isn’t as easy to grade as many may think. Vesey did not produce many points and was not more than a third-line player. However, over the course of the shortened season, the team was better when Vesey was on the ice, both in terms of shot quantity and quality. He provided the same for a bad New York Rangers team during the 2018-2019 season. 

Botterill identified the Sabres as a team that lacked depth and has gone about acquiring players to address that. Vesey is a good depth option. However, Botterill viewed him as more than that as he, on more than one occasion, referred to Vesey as a top-nine forward opposed to middle or bottom six, where he should properly slot. Though Botterill thought he could skate on the top line, the compensation he gave up reflects more of a middle-six player, though I still think that was still too much. The positive is the risk of acquiring Vesey was fairly low as he was signed to a relatively small, one-year contract so if he had a breakout season, the Sabres would have gotten some great value. 

Overall, the signs were there that Vesey was nothing more than a third-line player who wouldn’t kill your team if he had to slot higher in the lineup on occasion but shouldn’t have been counted on doing so. Botterill overvalued Vesey and ultimately added another player to the mix of many replacement level players he already had. However, the relatively low-risk nature of the trade, the thought process to improve depth, and the acceptable results of Vesey’s play help this grade.

Grade: C

Acquires Henri Jokiharju

Details: Sabres acquire Henri Jokiharju in exchange for Alexander Nylander

If I were to poll Sabres’ fans on what their favorite trade made by Botterill was, I bet a lot would point to this one. Alex Nylander had quickly fallen out of favor with Sabres’ fans and many were happy to see the team move on and I am guessing many would’ve been happy with a much lower return than what the team got. Jokiharju passes all the tests for a young player you would want to acquire. He is still on his entry-level contract, was a high draft selection, dominated the AHL, and has played time in the NHL and has been successful in doing so. The fact that he plays the highly-valued right defense helps as well. On paper, this seems like another home run for Botterill.

Jokiharju was a very steady performer on the blueline for the early part of the season but showed some decline as the season wore on. When he was on the ice, the Sabres gave up more shots but the quality of those shots were less than the quality the Sabres produced. Considering Jokiharju is still incredibly young and many thought he would play most of this season in the AHL, management and fans have the right to be hopeful.

I have two issues with this trade that prevent it from being an “A.” First, Jokiharju was the second right-shot defenseman acquired in almost as many weeks. Botterill now had Ristolainen, Montour, Miller, and Jokiharju on the right side alone. It is perfectly fine that the team allowed Jokiharju to earn his NHL time but his superb play created a further logjam on the blueline. So, like the Miller trade above, this will negatively impact his grade. Second, I am not against the idea of trading Nylander but the trade created a new hole and added to a problem in the organization. The Sabres’ biggest weakness right now is they are lacking prospects that project well as Top Six forwards. The only four players who may fit that mold are Casey Mittelstadt, Tage Thompson, Victor Olofsson, and 2019 first-round pick, Dylan Cozens. The former two are probably middle-six players at best. Olofsson showed tremendous promise in his rookie season but has not solidified himself either. The signs are positive for Cozens but he has no sample playing against “men.” Though Nylander did not project as a surefire Top Six, he had the skill set that could translate to that spot. With Olofsson “graduated” and Nylander traded, the Sabres have a whole in their prospect pipeline at forward. Trading Ristolainen could (have) solved two problems at once. Instead, an excellent trade in a vacuum exasperated a big problem for the Sabres.

Grade: B+

Acquires Michael Frolik; Trades Marco Scandella

Details: Buffalo traded Marco Scandella to Montreal for a 4^th round pick that was subsequently traded to Calgary for Michael Frolik

Though there may be some recency bias, this trade is probably the one most fans would pin as second-worst to the Ryan O’Reilly trade. However, I don’t have nearly as big of an issue with this trade as many fans. Many fans will point to Scandella’s subsequent trade to the Blues for a 2^nd round pick in addition to Frolik providing next to nothing for the Sabres as a clear black-eye for Botterill. However, I can’t fault Botterill for 1) The return Montreal got for Scandella, 2) Frolik providing nothing for the Sabres. In order to fairly assess the trade, we need to look at it at the point of time it was made and not play the “what if” game after it was made. For all intents and purposes, Botterill traded Scandella for Frolik and that is how I am going to assess the trade.

Both Scandella and Frolik are impending unrestricted free agents (UFAs) who probably were going to be nothing more than rentals. The Sabres definitely would not be retaining Scandella at the season’s end and needed to add someone to their forward group. Frolik graded out well analytically over the course of his career BUT was having a down season this year. The question is whether he could bounce back with an increased role or whether age had gotten the best of him. Ironically, the opposite of Marco Scandella was true. He had been down the past couple of seasons but was tremendous this season for Buffalo, which is probably attributable to playing a less demanding role and with a better partner. He had quickly become one of the more attractive assets from the Sabres’ crowded blueline.

If we look at this trade as Scandella for a 4^th round pick, it isn’t great but not bad either. Everyone in the league knew Botterill had defensemen to deal so they weren’t going to be aggressively bidding for any of them so it was going to be difficult to get full market value for Scandella, which was probably a 3^rd round pick at the time. Yes, Scandella was traded at the deadline for a 2^nd round pick and a conditional 4^th round pick but the devil is in the details. There are four reasons Montreal was able to get a better return. First, the trade deadline adjusts the supply and demand of the market so the price was going to be naturally higher. Buffalo could’ve waited it out for a slightly better return but Botterill would’ve been crucified for that too. Second, Montreal retained salary. The salary retention likely bumped the pick up a round because it was critical for St. Louis and the same would’ve been true of any other playoff contender that might have acquired Scandella. Third, Scandella proved he could play effectively in a different situation in Montreal. Although that wasn’t likely a major factor, it probably didn’t hurt either. Finally, Botterill was always playing from behind because of the logjam of defenseman he had. No opposing GM was going to allow him to “win” a trade of a defenseman. The one knock I do have on the return is the lack of a conditional pick. Every trade made in-season should include some performance, trading, or re-signing clause. This would better allow teams to capture the value the player is providing.

If we look just at the Frolik side of the trade, there is nothing wrong with the price of a 4^th round pick. Frolik’s salary certainly isn’t great and likely delayed the trade until the Sabres could move some salary but the idea of acquiring him was not bad. He was a relatively low-risk acquisition who could have provided a decent reward for the Sabres. Overall, I look at this trade as a trade of Frolik for Marco Scandella, a trade of a bottom-four defenseman for a middle-six forward, with similar contract situations. This is what people like to call a hockey trade. I don’t think Botterill made a brilliant trade but he did what he needed to do. The question is whether he did it involving the correct players.

Grade: B

Acquires Wayne Simmonds

Details: Buffalo acquires Wayne Simmonds (with 50% salary retained) for a 2021 5^th round pick 

I know there are people that don’t like this move but frankly, it was an incredibly low-risk move that could lead to a reward. Simmonds is no longer the player he used to be put still brought some unique skills to Buffalo. Although the coaching staff continued to use Rasmus Ristolainen as the net-front man on the power play, that area was a major weakness for the team. Sam Reinhart has proven to be effective in that position but he can be equally effective on the perimeter as well. Simmonds should have come in and been immediately inserted in that position. Everything else he could’ve provided would have been a bonus. Had he somehow caught fire, Botterill would’ve looked like a genius. He didn’t, as expected, but Botterill is only out a 5th round pick in next year’s draft, which is basically nothing. At worst, Simmonds would have filled the hole that would soon be created by trading Conor Sheary.

Grade: B

Acquires Dominik Kahun

Details: Buffalo acquires Dominik Kahun in exchange for Evan Rodrigues and Conor Sheary

This is a home run of a trade for Botterill and the creative type of trade he needs to do more of. Both Rodrigues and Sheary were on expiring contracts and neither were going to be back in Buffalo (Rodrigues wouldn’t have received a tender as an RFA). Both were assets that would have been gone at the end of the season for nothing and were nothing more than rentals at the trade deadline. I also don’t think either player had much value in the trade market. Sheary was probably going to return a 4^th round pick (3^rd if lucky or retaining salary) and Rodrigues was probably a 5^th or 6^th round pick. In essence, both players would have returned a nearly worthless asset. Instead of shopping both separately, Botterill packaged them and got an intriguing asset, Dominik Kahun, in return. Kahun is young, cheap, and has shown he can play in the NHL. He is probably a middle-six forward but is a fairly safe bet to be no worse than that. Though the results are very limited with the Sabres, he did seem to be fitting in well. Regardless, he is a much better asset to have now and likely in the future than whatever those middle to late-round draft picks would have become.

Grade: A

Summary

I think a lot of the flack Botterill receives comes from the singular focus on one horrible trade and his acquisition of Jeff Skinner gets overshadowed by the subsequent contract he signed him to, which was a home run of a trade. I think the biggest issue Botterill has had is many of the trades that have looked good on paper, haven’t produced the expected results. In some instances, it should have been anticipated. However, in many instances, it is somewhat mystifying as to why players have performed so poorly in Buffalo. The other problem in Botterill’s trading history is there are very few trades where the Sabres are the clear “winners.” He has made plenty of fine and balanced trades but he needs to do more to swing trades in his favor. He should take more advantage of adding conditions to trades. Overall, Botterill grades out as very average on his trades.

Overall Grade for Trades: B-

Please note all salary figures and trade compensations are courtesy of Capfriendly.com and all statistical information is courtesy of Naturalstattrick.com. Featured image is via the Buffalo News.

Please follow @afpanalytics and check back to read the remaining articles in the series. Feel free to share your thoughts with @afpanalytics or @k_sticher on Twitter.

KYLE STICH is the Director of AFP Analytics.  In addition, Mr. Stich is a tax specialist and Director of Operations at AFP Consulting LLC, whose clientele include professional athletes performing services on three separate continents. Mr. Stich earned his Master of Science in Sport Management with a Concentration in Sport Analytics from Columbia University in 2017. He earned his undergraduate degrees in Accounting and Sport Management from St. John Fisher College in 2015, where he has served as an adjunct professor teaching Sport Finance and Baseball Analytics.

NHL 31 in 31 Season Review: Buffalo Sabres

For the next 31 days, AFP Analytics is going to take a critical look back at how the season played out for all 31 NHL teams, starting with the last place team (Buffalo Sabres) and ending with the Stanley Cup Champions. In addition to a season recap, we will look at some major decisions the team will be facing this offseason.

Buffalo Sabres

First up in our 31 in 31 season review is a look at the lottery winning Buffalo Sabres. The Sabres came into the season with heightened expectations. They had a new GM in Jason Botterill and new coach in Phil Housley who was hired to try to bring a more exciting style of play that would hopefully jump start the offense. The team’s generational talent, Jack Eichel, was supposed to have his breakout season and maybe if the stars aligned, the Sabres would be able to declare their rebuild over with their first playoff berth since the 2010-2011. The exact opposite happened and at the end of the season the team and fans were just left shaking their heads, left with more questions than answers.

Season Bright Spots

I could write this sentence and be done and there probably wouldn’t be many arguments, but I think there are a few things worth bringing attention to. There is one player on the Sabres’ roster that I have always shouted from the highest mountains, over a loudspeaker, to try to get the world (or maybe just Sabres observers) to see and hear is actually really good. That player is Sam Reinhart. Reinhart’s biggest problem has never been whether he is a good player or not, it is admittedly, his consistency. There were games when he was flat out awful, but those games were not just in the first half of the season. A lot of people observing the Sabres thought Reinhart was only good in the second half of the season. That would be true if you only want to look at goals and point production.

There a few reasons I like Sam Reinhart so much. First, he is a very, very smart player. If you watch him closely, he more often than not is in the spot the puck is going. Unfortunately, the not is usually in the defensive zone, which is where observers usually notice his mistakes. However, there are many times in the offensive zone where he beats the puck to a spot because he knows where it is going. He also is tremendous in giving a target for a breakout passes in the neutral zone. The problem is the Sabres lack players to make that pass. From a numbers perspective, Reinhart was one of the few Sabres to finish the season with positive possession numbers with a CF% of 51.43%, best among regular players. His relative Corsi For % was also the best on the team among regular players at 5.27%, meaning the Sabres improved their shot share by that amount when he was on the ice.

Beside Reinhart, there are a few notable players that are worth discussing. Jack Eichel showed flashes of dominance but another freaky ankle injury dampened the season results. If I were running the team, Eichel wouldn’t have seen the ice again after the injury even though he did finish the season on a high note after struggling mightily immediately after returning from the ankle injury. Brenden Guehle and Casey Mittelstadt also showed promise in their limited action at the end of the season. Guehle was a positive possession player (51.27 Corsi For %, 4.57% Relative Corsi) in 17 games, while Mittelstadt finished at close to a point a game, with five points in six games at all situations but also a staggering 3.51 points per 60 during 5v5 play. I also have liked Casey Nelson and Evan Rodrigues from the start of their Sabre careers but Buffalo is going need to them to take a bigger step forward next season if they are to be counted on as high-end, depth players going forward.

The brightest spot though has the be the lottery win and the ability to draft franchise defenseman, Rasmus Dahlin. This will be discussed later in the offseason plan.

Major Disappointments

How much room should I take up for this section? Where to start? These are just a few of the questions that are the metaphorical low-hanging fruit. In reality, things could not have gone much worse for Buffalo this year. The Sabres actually slightly improved their 5v5 Corsi For Percentage to 47.61% from 47.23% though their biggest problem was they struggled mightily to generate shots at 5v5 play seeing their total shots toward goal go down from 3486 to 3381 at 5v5 play. That is 1.28 less shots per game for a team that was supposed to play more up-tempo and take a step forward this season.

The question is can the Sabres sustain being this bad? The answer is unlikely. The starting point has to be the goaltending. The team finished with the fourth worst save percentage at 91.61%. Additionally, their two regular goalies, Robin Lehner and Chad Johnson, both had an actual save percentage below what was expected of them. The question is were they “unlucky” or is their skill just not at the level it should be. The answer is the later, as their results the last three seasons show both goalies’ aggregate statistics result in a save percentage worse than what would be expected of an average goalie.

Until this season, I didn’t think goaltending was even worth discussing when it came to places to improve for the Sabres. Former GM Tim Murray had mistakenly traded a first-round draft pick for goaltender Robin Lehner, who was promptly injured and missed almost the entirety of his first season with the team. Up until this season, Lehner was fine. Nothing more, nothing less. There was zero reason for the team to look for an upgrade as any marginal upgrade never would have been worth the cost associated with it. However, now seems to be the time.

Chad Johnson also struggled for much of the season in the backup role so his status also will be up in the air heading into the offseason. The Sabres also had a league worst 6.14% shooting percentage during 5v5 play. Combine that with their 91.61% save percentage and the Sabres finished with a league worst PDO of .977, a stat that should regress toward 1 over time, and it is likely the team will improve next year regardless of any roster changes.

The next place to move is the team’s highest paid players. Here we find Ryan O’Reilly, Kyle Okposo, Jason Pominville, Zach Bogosian, and Matt Moulson. Ryan O’Reilly certainly raised eyebrows with his end of season comments about losing passion for the game, but he would have landed on this list regardless of what he said at season’s end. O’Reilly is a good player and has given what he always has in terms of production. The problem is that level of production is not at the level expected out of a player being paid $7.5 million per year. The other problem is O’Reilly is not the best skater in a league where teams are finally figuring out that the path to success is speed. As he ages, this is going to become more and more of an issue.

Speaking of lack of speed, we arrive at Matt Moulson and Jason Pominville. Yes, Matt Moulson is still a part of the Sabres organization though it would be easy to forget considered he was banished to the Ontario Reign (Los Angeles Kings’ AHL team) because the team felt he didn’t bring anything to the table in Buffalo. I am not going to sit here and say Moulson is still a good player but he really wouldn’t have been any worse than what Jordan Nolan brought to the team. However, at the time Moulson was waived, the front office needed to do something to shake up the team and firing Housley was not an option.

Bringing back Jason Pominville was a fan favorite move that started off great when he was scoring in bunches playing with Jack Eichel and Evander Kane. However, as the season wore on and he spent time away from Eichel, it became apparent that Pominville was no longer the player he was last time in Buffalo. Pominville’s underlying numbers actually seem to indicate he still can be a useful player as he was the best possession player after Sam Reinhart. However, his footspeed has left him. Bringing Pominville back to Buffalo was likely a necessity as adding Marco Scandella as a top 4 defenseman was a huge need last offseason. The problem is for a team really needing to push the pace of play, Pominville is not going to be able to provide that anymore.

We now arrive at Kyle Okposo and Zach Bogosian. Both players are tough to gauge because I think injuries/health issues are the main reason both have landed in this section. I truly believe a large portion of Kyle Okposo’s struggles this season were due to the fact his summer training was severely hurt by the lingering health scare he faced at the end of last season. I could be wrong, but Okposo’s relatively strong play at the end of the season gives reason for hope.

I have never been the biggest Zach Bogosian fan as I often see him struggling with positioning and recognizing the play but I also think he is a player who could help this team as a bottom 4 defenseman if he can stay healthy. And that is the big if. Although Bogosian has been a negative possession player (Corsi For %) for all but one season of his career, the Sabres have acutally performed better, in terms of possession, when Zach Bogosian has been on the ice in two of his three seasons in Buffalo. Like many other players on the team, he has been put in a role that has asked too much of him during his time in the organization.

At a team level, there are a few issues that once again reared its head again this season. First, the team struggles mightily to breakout of their own zone. Defensemen struggle to make stretch passes and forwards struggle to give them a target, resulting in icings and extended defensive zone time. Part of this could also be the lack of speed across the team. An issue Botterill will have to address this season.

The next issue that has been apparent for the Sabres the past few years is depth scoring. Last season it took three games until a player not on Jack Eichel’s line to score a goal and things did not improve from there. The Sabres received very little production outside of their top two lines for the entirety of the season. Strong teams in today’s NHL can role three or even four lines that can score goals on any given shift.

In a league where teams are trending more and more toward speed and an up-tempo style of play, the Sabres played even slower than they did last season. One of the things Housley and Botterill focused on when they were introduced was their desire to play an up-tempo style of hockey and attack teams with speed. It quickly became apparent that the make-up of the team would not allow them to do so.

Finally, there has to be a level of disappointment with the return Botterill received in exchange for Evander Kane. I was fully in support of going into the season with Kane on the roster. I even would have liked to see him as a member of the team going forward, but it quickly became apparent that Kane would not be on the roster at season’s end. Did Botterill wait too long to make a deal or was the market just not there? We might never truly know but Sabres fans certainly have to be disappointed with the return especially seeing the impact Kane has made in his limited time with the Sharks. Botterill should have pushed to add more incentives in the deal dependent on Kane’s play. Even if the Sabres end up with the Sharks’ 2019 first-round pick, the return relative to what Kane contributed seems low, especially when comparing the Kane trade with the Stastny and Nash trades.

Offseason Plans 

The Sabres hope to become next year’s Colorado Avalanche, going from worst to the playoffs. Nothing is impossible, but if the team goes into next season with a similar roster to this season, it seems unlikely. Many of Botterill’s moves in his first offseason in charge seemed to be geared at reversing the mess he inherited, a bare cupboard of prospects, one of worst (if not the worst) bluelines in the NHL, and lack of team speed. Considering the level of disappointment, it is time for Botterill to put his own stamp on this team. However, it is hard to fathom the Sabres being this bad again next season. Their possession numbers slightly improved at 5v5 and they had the league worst PDO, driven by a league worst shooting percentage. By sheer regression to the mean (having the PDO move toward 1), the Sabres have to improve next year. Some savvy offseason moves, could see the Sabres at least in contention much later into the season.

It might be truly amazing how one ping-pong ball may change the whole complexion of the Sabres’ offseason plans. To be clear, Rasmus Dahlin will be a Buffalo Sabre come June 22^nd. Dahlin is the Connor McDavid of defensemen and any argument against taking a bona fide top-pair defenseman first overall is plain silly.

Before getting into each position group specifically, let’s take a quick look at the potential future salary cap issues the Sabres may face if they don’t start thinking about it now. Jack Eichel’s $10M cap hit takes effect next season. Sam Reinhart is also up for an extension. Ryan O’Reilly and Kyle Okposo each have six years left, Rasmus Ristolanien five, and in three years the Sabres will likely have to shell out fairly substantial contracts for Casey Mittelstadt and Rasmus Dahlin. At some point tough decisions have to be made and now might be the time considering the need for change in Buffalo. It also is better to make moves before you are backed into a corner and have to sell your assets under face value. I’m looking at you Chicago Blackhawks.

Before the first item on Botterill’s list had to be finding a top-flight defenseman. Once the Sabres draft Dahlin, the defensemen that will be competing for regular playing time next season will be Dahlin, Rasmus Ristolanien, Marco Scandella, Brenden Guehle, Casey Nelson, Jake McCabe, Zach Bogosian, Lawrence Pilut (rumored signing), and Nathan Beaulieu. The Sabres are suddenly rich on their backend but still could afford to add another top end defenseman as most of these players project to be at best second pair defenders.

Brenden Guehle has shown tremendous promise in his limited action in Buffalo and could project as a top pair defenseman. Guehle playing with Dahlin would be lots of fun to watch but I don’t see Housley starting those two players off together. Casey Nelson is a young player who the Sabres prevented from hitting the open market, re-signing him at the beginning of May to a very team friendly contract. Though he will never project to be a top pair defenseman, he could factor in as a solid depth option for the coming years.

Somewhere there is an odd man out on the blueline. Botterill would probably love to be able to get out from Zach Bogosian’s contract but finding a taker looks like it will be tough. Nathan Beaulieu was worth a third-round pick gamble but right now sits outside of the top six on the Sabres’ depth chart. He could be a player moved this offseason but the return would be nothing Sabres fans would get excited about.

This brings us to three players who have played substantial minutes on the Sabres’ top-pair the past two seasons, Jake McCabe, Rasmus Ristolainen, and Marco Scandella. If I were to wager, my money would be on one of Jake McCabe or Rasmus Ristolainen being traded this offseason. It seems unlikely Botterill would move Scandella after acquiring him last offseason and seeing steady play from him for much of the season.

Rasmus Ristolainen has been over used and maybe even misused in his entire time with the Sabres. Ristolanien has always been one of the players at the center of the analytic vs. eye-test debate. Let’s be clear, he has the talent of a top four defenseman. The question is in what capacity should he be used. To me (and many others), he would continue to play with a competent partner, but have less overall ice time, especially on the penalty kill.

I think Ristolainen still has a fairly high trade value and could fetch a pretty nice return for Buffalo. However, if I were deciding to keep one of Ristolainen or McCabe, I keep Ristolainen because he still has a higher ceiling. Many teams would likely value McCabe as an addition to a trade package as he is still young, under team control, and plays a steady game, limiting quality shots on his side of the ice, as Scott Cullen of TSN pointed out in his Sabres’ offseason overview. However, he hasn’t ever put up positive possession numbers at 5v5 and this season was the first where the Sabres’ possession numbers improved while he was on the ice. Basically, McCabe is a decent player, on a decent contract, but someone has to be the odd man out (especially on the left-side) and he might be the guy. He has no traits that would be impossible to replace and also would likely be an attractive option to other teams that could actually fetch a decent return.

Transitioning to goaltending, the plan all season was for Linus Ullmark to take over as the starter next year in Buffalo. His playoff struggles (likely a result of lingering effects of a concussion) should not change that. With Ullmark likely being the full-time goalie, retaining Lehner at a salary above $4 million does not seem practical. The question here is whether the Sabres are ready to have Ullmark take on a NHL starting goalie workload or if they look to have him split time with a veteran. If the answer is the latter, who is that veteran? Out of a relatively uninspiring goalie free agent class, the only names that I would be comfortable rolling with as a backup are Jonathan Bernier, Anton Khidobin, Carter Hutton, and maybe Chad Johnson.

This brings us to the forwards where the Sabres have the biggest decisions to be made. Benoit Pouliot, Jordan Nolan, and Jacob Josefson should be gone and replaced by players from their AHL affiliate, the Rochester Americans, which should provide the team younger, faster talent at a low cost. Jack Eichel will be the top center and Casey Mittelstadt will likely join him down the middle. Kyle Okposo will definitely be back on the wing. Jason Pominville will likely be playing his final season. After that, the questions begin.

Let’s get Scott Wilson and Matt Moulson out of the way first. Wilson is a fine role player that played decent for Buffalo toward season’s end and the Sabres could bring him back or they could easily find another player just like him. If I was making the decision, I look for a player more skilled but wouldn’t be averse to keeping him around for another season. Many are speculating that Moulson could be bought out this offseason but to me that is just extending the pain. The team should just retain him for one more season, see if they can get anything out of him when the season opens and if not bury him in the minors to finish out his contract.

If you’ve read everything I’ve written until now, what I am about to discuss will probably not come as a surprise. I would re-sign Sam Reinhart to an eight-year contract because mathematically, it makes the most sense. According to Matt Cane’s (@Cane_Matt) prediction model, he has Sam Reinhart likely signing a two-year bridge deal, carrying an average annual value (AAV) of approximately $3.4M. The model predicts that an eight-year deal would have an AAV of approximately $5.14M.

Let’s assume that the Sabres will want to have Reinhart for eight additional years. If they don’t, they can always buy him out before he turns 25 for a cost of approximately $1.7M per year, if the contract aligns with Cane’s prediction model. Working off the Sabres’ desire to have Reinhart for a total of eight-years, some very simple present value (using a discount rate of 4.7%) brings us to the conclusion that the eight-year deal is a no-brainer. If the Sabres do go the bridge option (let’s assume two years plus six), Reinhart’s second contract would have to less than $5.8M for the cap hit in today’s dollars to be less than the present value of the contract with an AAV of $5.14M over eight years. Basically, the Sabres would have to think Reinhart is going to get worse over the next two years for the bridge option to make sense. If that is the case, the team shouldn’t even be looking to keep him.

Not only does it mathematically make sense, the team also has to be concerned over their future cap hits and unnecessarily allowing Reinhart’s cap hit to balloon would be very unwise. The only question is would the increase in cap hit be potentially worth it to have Reinhart for 10 years versus eight. Considering Reinhart will be 30 in eight years, having him under contract for an additional year or two might be regretted at that point as well. At some point, I will do a more elaborate analysis on this concept so please follow @afpanalytics on Twitter to see it when I do.

This leaves us with three forwards who have been regulars in the Sabres’ lineups the last few seasons, Zemgus Girgensons, Johan Larsson, and Ryan O’Reilly. I could see all three of them traded this offseason. The first two likely wouldn’t fetch much in terms of return but would open roster spots that could be filled with speedier players.

The Sabres’ biggest question this offseason will be what to do with Ryan O’Reilly. His end of season comments had no impact on what I would do if I were running the team. To me, the Sabres have to decide between O’Reilly and Reinhart. I clearly favor Reinhart. It is also likely that O’Reilly’s future role on the team is as a third-line center who plays special teams. You just can’t play $7.5M for a player to play that role. I also imagine O’Reilly packaged with McCabe would allow the Sabres to make a trade that would immediately improve their roster. I don’t think that package gets the team a top pair defenseman but it certainly could get them a high-end winger, which the team is severely lacking. I’m just spit-balling here: I wonder if a trade if a trade revolving around Ryan O’Reilly and Vladimir Tarasenko could make any sense. I think a trade where the Sabres include O’Reilly, McCabe, and a prospect not named Mittlelstadt or Guehle for Tarasenko could make some sense for both teams.

I don’t know if dipping heavily into the free agent pool would be a wise move for the Sabres. If I were to target any players for the team to add, I would look at Michael Grabner and David Perron who would provide the speed and depth scoring the team desires. James Neal and James van Riemsdyk are the type of high end scoring wingers this team needs but if they hit the open market, they will likely come at a long-term and high price tag, something the Sabres must avoid if they hope to have any sort of sustained success.

Please be sure to check in again tomorrow as we take an in-depth look (maybe not quite as deep) at the Ottawa Senators. If you enjoyed this review, please follow us on Twitter, @afpanalytics, and share it with your friends!

Stats have been pulled from NaturalStatTrick.com and Corsica.hockey. Salary info from Capfriendly.com

KYLE STICH is the Director of AFP Analytics.  In addition, Mr. Stich is a tax specialist and Director of Operations at AFP Consulting LLC, whose clientele include professional athletes performing services on three separate continents. Mr. Stich earned his Master of Science in Sport Management with a Concentration in Sport Analytics from Columbia University in 2017. He earned his undergraduate degrees in Accounting and Sport Management from St. John Fisher College in 2015, where he has served as an adjunct professor teaching Sport Finance and Baseball Analytics.