Minnesota Wild

Next up in our 31 in 31 season review is a look at the Minnesota Wild. The Wild have been a fine team for many years now but once again fell to make any sort of deep playoff run. The constant wheel spinning and the perceived mismanagement of the Vegas Expansion draft seem to be the reasons Chuck Fletcher was replaced as GM by Paul Fenton. Fenton will have a tough job in front of him as ownership just made it clear that making the playoffs is not good enough. Unfortunately for Fenton, that is exactly the type of roster he has and making major tweaks to it will likely pose a challenge. In fact, the underlying numbers don’t look favorably at the Wild and they could be a team primed for a fall in the standings next season

Season Bright Spots

I am going to start this section by somewhat validating Fletcher’s decision in the expansion draft. One of the popular picks by pundits for the Golden Knights was Las Vegas native Jason Zucker. Fletcher opted to protect him and work out a deal to ensure neither Eric Staal or Matthew Dumba would’ve been taken. I think Minnesota would’ve regretted losing Staal and Zucker this season as taking one of those players out of the lineup would’ve likely would’ve resulted in the team missing the playoffs. Yes, both of those players were that important for the Wild this season. Dumba probably wasn’t quite as valuable this season but long-term, I think he would’ve been a piece Minnesota regretted losing.

I have already foreshadowed two of the players who were bright spots for the Wild this season in Eric Staal and Jason Zucker. Those two players in addition to Nino Niederreiter and Mikael Granlund were by far the Wild’s best forwards. Staal has always been thought of as a top line talent so it might not be much of a surprise that he performed at the level he did. When Eric Staal was on the ice, during 5v5 play, the Minnesota Wild controlled the shot differential 3.51% better. He also scored at a rate of 2.48 points per 60 during 5v5 play. That’s pretty good for a player who is 33 years old and signed to a contract with a $3.5M cap hit. I still don’t know how Minnesota was able to sign Staal for that bargain of a contract.

Jason Zucker has been a player steadily on the rise for the Wild and this season really took off. It can be argued that Zucker was the team’s best forward this season. Zucker was second, to Staal, in points per 60 at 2.1 during 5v5 play. The team was also 3.87% better when he was on the ice, which was the second-best among forwards behind Niederreiter. Zucker and Eric Staal seem to have found tremendous chemistry as both players played at a higher level when they played together than when they were playing a part. Zucker is arbitration eligible and a year away from unrestricted free agency. The Wild have to make a decision on him this offseason and should likely be looking to lock him up long-term.

I’m willing to bet that Nino Niederreiter is still likely underappreciated. Some might think this is crazy to say but Niederreiter is one of the best two-way forwards in the NHL and should be in the Selke conversation every season. The fact that Minnesota has him under contract for two more season for $5.25M is an absolute bargain, provided he can stay healthy, which until this season had not been an issue for him. This season Niederreiter had an absurd Relative Corsi For % of 6.92%, meaning the team was controlled shots that much better when he was on the ice. That’s an elite level of play. I can’t believe that the team was able to buyout four seasons of unrestricted free agency and only one arbitration year at that price. Niederreiter would likely fetch at least $7M (probably higher) this offseason had he hit the open market.

I also want to touch on the Wild’s best defenseman. No, it wasn’t Ryan Suter but rather Jared Spurgeon. When Spurgeon was on the ice the Wild better controlled the shot differential at a rate of 4.47%. Suter also was solid but that should be expected of him.

Major Disappointments

If you want to look at the underlying statistics the Wild were not a good team this season and we can point to many players why. However, I am going to start with the two trades Fletcher made last offseason. The first being the trade made with Vegas to provide protection, allowing Vegas to draft Erik Haula along with acquiring Alex Tuch in the expansion draft and the second with the Buffalo Sabres that sent Marco Scandella and Jason Pominville to Buffalo in exchange for Marcus Foligno and Tyler Ennis. As I previously alluded to, the expansion draft snafu might not be as bad as it is being made out to be but it certainly has to sting to watch those two players become key components for a top team. The trade with Buffalo was not good. Foligno was actually decent but his ceiling is not higher than a third-line player. Tyler Ennis could be a top six player but has sadly seen his career derailed due to injuries and he has never bounced back. I’m not sure banking on an Ennis turnaround was the smartest way to approach that trade. I think Minnesota needed to get a better return for one of their defenseman and that didn’t have to be Marco Scandella.

The defenseman who Minnesota likely should’ve looked to trade was Jonas Brodin. Looking at his possession numbers for his career, show that he has been average to below average. This season, the Wild, already a poor possession team, were 1.74% worse when Brodin was on the ice. I think Brodin likely would’ve had greater value than Scandella because of his age and I don’t think Scandella would’ve performed any worse. Not that this was a franchise-altering trade but this poor return and decision on which player to move just added another nail to Fletcher’s coffin.

I don’t want to completely dig into Zach Parise because I feel bad for him because of the number of injuries he has overcome. However, for the Wild, they are going to have to hope for another compliance buyout in the new CBA or for Parise to have an injury that prevents him from playing so the team can stash him on Long-term injured reserve. Unfortunately, Parise still has seven years left on his contract (that would keep him on the roster until he is 40). This season he only played 42 games and the Wild were 2.57% worse when he was on the ice. The worst part is smart money is on a 33-year-old player, with extensive injury history not suddenly improving their level of play.

Offseason Plans

Yikes. Paul Fenton has some heavy lifting to do (maybe the team should’ve hired Rick Dudley to do it) if the team is going to dramatically improve. Once the cap is finalized the team will likely have around $12M in salary cap space. That sounds manageable until you see Jason Zucker and Matt Dumba are both arbitration eligible. Zucker could eat up half of that cap space alone and the only option besides signing him is to trade him as there is no way they can justify walking away from an arbitration award if it gets that far. If you’ve read everything thus far, I think the Wild would take a massive step back without Zucker so in my mind, they have no option but to pay him and ideally, they would lock him up to a long-term deal as they can’t afford to go short-term and go through this again in a year or two. Matt Dumba will also likely earn a decent arbitration award should it get that far so Minnesota could be in big trouble at the end of arbitration season.

Waiting for those awards also would severely hamper their ability to construct a roster so the Wild will likely have to be proactive and take action sooner than later. Obviously, they have to clear salary as soon as possible. The likely starting point for shedding salary is Tyler Ennis. I can’t imagine a team trading for Ennis alone. The Wild would likely have to entice a team with an asset to take Ennis off their hands. A buyout could be another option to create immediate cap savings but it would also add a year of cap pain. Doing so would generate $2.4M in cap space.  At this moment I would estimate the Wild will likely have approximately $30M in cap space next offseason but could easily see a third of that eaten up by Zucker and Dumba. Potentially add in Ennis’s buyout and the team is likely down to $18M – $19M in space with Eric Staal potentially needing a new contract. It should be manageable so I would definitely expect an Ennis buyout this offseason.

Buying out Ennis might give them just enough cap space to work with but it still doesn’t give them much wiggle room. It certainly doesn’t provide them much flexibility to shake up their roster, basically forcing them to have to match salary if they make any trades, which really puts them at a disadvantage. The reality is the Wild have to sort Zucker and Dumba out ASAP because they can’t afford to let them play out. They have to know if they are going to count $10M, $12M, or more toward the cap. If I’m spit-balling, I can’t see that dual counting for much less than $10M combined. Even with an Ennis buyout, the team is looking at $4M to $5M max in salary cap space. They likely are going to have to hope their young players can energize their roster but with a new GM in charge, a massive roster shakeup can’t be ruled out. However, if Fenton wishes to put his own stamp on the roster, I wish him good luck!

Please be sure to check in again tomorrow as we take an in-depth look at the Anaheim Ducks. If you enjoyed this review, please follow us on Twitter, @afpanalytics, and share it with your friends!

Stats have been pulled from NaturalStatTrick.com and Corsica.hockey. Salary info from Capfriendly.com.

KYLE STICH is the Director of AFP Analytics.  In addition, Mr. Stich is a tax specialist and Director of Operations at AFP Consulting LLC, whose clientele include professional athletes performing services on three separate continents. Mr. Stich earned his Master of Science in Sport Management with a Concentration in Sport Analytics from Columbia University in 2017. He earned his undergraduate degrees in Accounting and Sport Management from St. John Fisher College in 2015, where he has served as an adjunct professor teaching Sport Finance and Baseball Analytics.

For the next 31 days, AFP Analytics is going to take a critical look back at how the season played out for all 31 NHL teams, starting with the last place team (Buffalo Sabres) and ending with the Stanley Cup Champions. In addition to a season recap, we will look at some major decisions the team will be facing this offseason.

Los Angeles Kings

Next up in our 31 in 31 season review is a look at the Los Angeles Kings. After an offseason of change to their hockey ops department and coaching staff, the Kings looked poised to regain their championship form only to be steamrolled by the Vegas Golden Knights in the first round of the playoffs. Their playoff loss is probably more indicative of how the team stacks up in today’s NHL rather than their fairly successful regular season.

Season Bright Spots

This section has to start with the revival of Dustin Brown. Brown continued to be a top possession player during 5v5 play, leading all forwards in Corsi For % and Relative Corsi For %. He also scored at the third best rate during 5v5 play of his career. This season he was propelled by a higher shooting percentage than he has put up the previous three seasons. As these reviews are meant to be a quick overview, I can’t point to definite reasons why he shot better this year than the previous three but I have a few theories. First, he likely was due to progress as he had shot well below his career average the last few seasons. However, this might not simply be a regression to the mean discussion. I have a hypothesis that I have no way of backing up. I wonder if a new coaching staff and playing style propelled Brown to shoot at a much better rate than ever before. I think this is something that would need to be looked at through video but I have already spent way too much time writing these reviews so I can’t do that at the present time. If anyone reading this would like to prove or debunk my theory please do!

Brown’s revival certainly was a bright spot this season for the Kings but I’m not sure if fans can be overly excited regarding Brown. This season Brown definitely produced at a level worthy of his $5.875M cap hit. However, at age 33, I don’t think it is feasible to expect Brown to continue to improve his play. It has to be concerning for the Kings’ organization that his contract will be on the books for another four years. I wonder if the Kings would look to explore moving him while his value is high. Though with Brown being able to list eight teams he would accept a trade to, it seems pretty unlikely a trade could be work without Brown’s complete cooperation.

The next player to highlight here is undrafted rookie free agent, Alex Iafallo. The Kings have been tight to the cap the past few seasons and have been in need of top-line talent. For whatever reason, they haven’t had much success finding that talent internally. Enter Iafallo. Iafallo didn’t produce the same number of points compared to some of the Kings other top players but he did put up some of the best possession numbers on the team. In fact, Iafallo ranked second to Brown in Corsi For % and Relative Corsi For %. When Iafallo was on the ice, the Kings were a better team. The hope for the Kings is the scoring will follow and it likely will. Even if it doesn’t, the Kings have to be ecstatic that Iafallo was able to more than hold his own while playing top line minutes as a rookie. The even better news is Iafallo was as good when he played away from Anze Kopitar as when he played with him, meaning any argument looking at Iafallo as being carried by Kopitar is invalid.

The final player I am going to highlight in this section is Johnathan Quick. For those who haven’t been following along, I want to digress quickly to make sure I note that just because a player is not highlighted in this section it doesn’t mean they had a bad season. I have used this section to highlight players who outperformed expectations. Anze Kopitar and Drew Doughty were great but that’s what was expected of them. So now you’re probably wondering why I would discuss Quick because many people expect him to be great as well. I’m going to let you in on a secret, Johnathan Quick really hasn’t been that good of a regular season goalie. Shhhh, don’t tell anyone. However, this season Quick was phenomenal. He saved 11.53 goals above average this season, fifth best in the league. Out of all the years to talk about Quick as a Vezina candidate, this was probably the year. Goalies seem like they can certainly play at a high level well into their thirties so maybe the Kings won’t completely regret that long-term contract Quick signed but they are going to want more seasons like this one to be truly comfortable with it.

Major Disappointments

As I alluded to in the last section, I am using these sections to highlight players who truly excelled or truly disappointed. I think most of the Kings’ players performed pretty much as expected. I also want to commend the Kings for recognizing the players who were struggling and not play them. However, I will quickly touch on a few players here.

I will start with Jeff Carter. His possession numbers were not great. In the games he played, the Kings performed worse, at least in terms of shot generation and suppression, when Carter was on the ice. I don’t know if it is something worth reading too much into. I think the bigger disappointment is that he missed most of the season due to injury. If Carter had been healthy, the Kings probably would’ve finished higher in their division and avoided Vegas in the first round. I would have made them the favorite against the Ducks so in the big picture, Carter’s injury has to be a little disappointing. If Kings’ fans want to look at the bright side, Carter’s injury isn’t one that should raise concern for a long-term injury issue. The pessimistic side is Carter is 33 years old and still has four years remaining on his contract. However, a $5.27M cap hit, with no trade/move clause and a lower salary than cap hit, should give the Kings flexibility with Carter going forward if they decide they need to move him.

Probably the biggest concern for the Kings and their fans is the sudden and fairly drastic decline in the play of Alec Martinez. For his entire career, Martinez was a dominant possession player and suddenly this season, the Kings were shelled when he was on the ice. When Martinez was on the ice, the Kings gave up 5.56% more shots than when Martinez was on the bench. That was worst among regular Kings defensemen. Much like my discussion on Brown, I don’t know if I have any explanation for Martinez’s poor season. Luckily, he is signed to a relatively team friendly contract with a cap hit of $4M per season but he will be is now on the wrong side of 30 so expecting a dramatic improvement in play next season might be unrealistic.

I understand the Kings’ thinking in trading Marion Gaborik for Dion Phaneuf but I don’t know how smart of a move that will turn out to be. Phaneuf was not good for the Kings after he came over in the trade, putting up possession numbers very similar to Alec Martinez. Three more seasons of a $5.25M cap hit is not desirable. I don’t know if the slight difference in cap hit was really worth moving Gaborik for Phaneuf.

Offseason Plans

The Kings are an interesting team. They basically have their roster set for next season. They have 12 forwards, six defensemen, and two goalies under contract for next year. For a team that probably could benefit from some changes, I don’t think this is a great position for them to be in. I also don’t see any players that are overly attractive trade options that I would think the Kings would be open to trading.

The biggest need for the Kings is an improvement to their bottom six forwards. Most of the players they currently have are uninspiring. I wonder if they could work out a short-term deal with a player like James Neal, David Perron, or Patrick Maroon. They could slot in the team’s middle six and push another player down the lineup, which would probably help solve some of the team’s depth issues. Otherwise, I don’t really know what the team is going to do. They will have around $9M in cap space to work with but don’t really have spots for a player to come in and play.

I think the smart play for the Kings this offseason would be to look to build up their farm system. The team could use an infusion of youth and speed but I don’t know who currently would fit the bill in the Kings’ organization. This is where they could be wise to use their cap space this offseason. The Kings’ could take on a big money contract with a year left along with an asset, whether that is a draft pick or prospect and then bury a player in the minors (Brooks Orpik maybe). Their number one priority has to be keeping cap space clear next offseason when Drew Doughty will likely be drawing big money.

Overall, I expect a very quiet offseason in Los Angeles aside from possibly announcing a Drew Doughty extension.

Please be sure to check in again tomorrow as we take an in-depth look at the Pittsburgh Penguins. If you enjoyed this review, please follow us on Twitter, @afpanalytics, and share it with your friends!

Stats have been pulled from NaturalStatTrick.com and Corsica.hockey. Salary info from Capfriendly.com.

KYLE STICH is the Director of AFP Analytics.  In addition, Mr. Stich is a tax specialist and Director of Operations at AFP Consulting LLC, whose clientele include professional athletes performing services on three separate continents. Mr. Stich earned his Master of Science in Sport Management with a Concentration in Sport Analytics from Columbia University in 2017. He earned his undergraduate degrees in Accounting and Sport Management from St. John Fisher College in 2015, where he has served as an adjunct professor teaching Sport Finance and Baseball Analytics.

For the next 31 days, AFP Analytics is going to take a critical look back at how the season played out for all 31 NHL teams, starting with the last place team (Buffalo Sabres) and ending with the Stanley Cup Champions. In addition to a season recap, we will look at some major decisions the team will be facing this offseason.

New Jersey Devils

Next up in our 31 in 31 season review is a look at the New Jersey Devils, a team who finished last in the Eastern Conference and won the draft lottery last offseason only to turn around and make the playoffs. These aren’t the same New Jersey Devils I grew up watching as they played a fast-pace, offensive focused game, a far cry from the slow-paced defensive minded game they had previously played.

Season Bright Spots

If I am being honest, the Devils were probably lucky to make the playoffs as their possession numbers were 11^th worst in the league as they had a Corsi For % of 48.59%. The reason they likely overcame this low possession number is they dominated on fast breaks, led by Taylor Hall, who is in discussion to be this year’s most valuable player. Hall was incredible and clearly a player the Oilers wish they still had to ride shotgun with Connor McDavid. He doesn’t have eye popping possession numbers, with a Corsi For % of 51.28% and a Relative Corsi For % of 3.85% during 5v5 play, but the team wouldn’t have sniffed the playoffs without him. His scoring numbers were ballooned by his strong power play scoring but he was still one of the best players in the league this season and trying to deny it is silly.

The next player to discuss is Will Butcher, the rookie defenseman who New Jersey signed as a free agent after he played out his four seasons at the University of Denver and failed to reach an agreement with the Colorado Avalanche. He also was the Hobby Baker winner in his senior season. However, teams saw him as undersized and many thought he would likely be AHL bound this season. However, he not only made the Devils out of training camp but he exceled all season.

Butcher made the Devils better when he was on the ice during 5v5 play. How much better? The Devils had a 6% higher shot share when Butcher was on the ice, best on the team.  He also had the best Corsi For % during 5v5 play, 53.14%. He also led Devil defensemen in points per 60 during 5v5 play. I’m not saying he should win the Calder Trophy (rookie of the year) but I don’t think Butcher has gotten enough national recognition for what he has accomplished this season.

I am going to conclude this section with a blanket shout out to the young forwards on the team. Nico Hischier, Pavel Zacha, Miles Wood, and Stefan Noesen all were quality players for the team this season, which has to excite Devil fans considering their age. All four of those players finished with an even or positive Relative Corsi For %. What this means for the Devils is these players all improve (or in Zacha’s case maintains) the level of play when they are on the ice. The even better news is these players are likely to get better the next few seasons as well. Wood and Noesen are restricted free agents this summer so the Devils will have to make a decision on them, whether to go short-term or long-term.

If the team sees Noesen in their plans going forward, which they should, they should look to go long-term with him this offseason. If you have read any of my other work, you should know that I would also favor going eight years for Wood. For a player who relies heavily on his speed, there has to be some concern that once he hits 30, he will be unable to maintain his style of play. However, a long-term deal this summer would end when he is no older than 30. Jesper Bratt also should be highlighted quickly as he performed well considering he was a sixth-round pick but his possession numbers are concerning. The team was 3% worse when he was on the ice. Considering the Devils were a team that finished low in possession to begin with, it is not a great sign that the team was even worse when Bratt was on the ice.

Major Disappointments

I think it is hard to discuss a lot in this section considering the team went from worst in the conference to the playoffs. The definite place to start though is with goaltender Cory Schneider. Schneider got off to a good start this season but struggled mightily at the end of the season, being replaced as the regular starter by Keith Kinkaid. Though Schneider did regain his form in the playoffs as he was the far superior goalie for the Devils in their first-round playoff loss. The decision to make Kinkaid the number one was backed up by the numbers. Kinkaid was basically average during 5v5 play while Schneider allowed 2.5 goals below average. During all situations Kinkaid saved 6.43 goals above average while Schneider saved 3.49 above average.

The next player I am going to discuss is Steve Santini. To be frank, the team got shelled when he was on the ice. Santini had the worst Relative Corsi For % out of any player to play at all for the Devils and he played 36 games! When Santini was on the ice, the Devils allowed 12.12% more shots. It still might be a little early to write Santini off but it also is concerning that his possession numbers regressed from last season in only 50 minutes more of ice time. The one positive to look at for Santini is he did improve his goals for % from 40.54% to 48.78%. During 5v5 play this season, Santini was only on the ice for one more goal allowed than the team scored. The Devils have to be hoping to Santini progress next season.

Finally, I will quickly touch on Andy Greene. It looks like father time has continued to take his toll on the Devils’ captain. Greene has been a negative possession player for the last four seasons and has been on a steady decline in that time span. Greene still has two more years at $5M remaining on his contract; the Devils have no one to blame but themselves as they signed Greene to an extension even after his play started to decline. The silver lining for the team though is Greene’s contract will be off the books when Taylor Hall is due a new contract. Even though that $5M is an overpayment for a player with Greene’s level of performance, it shouldn’t have a major impact on the team’s offseason plans the next two years. They should have plenty of cap space to work with.

Offseason Plans

The Devils’ top priority this offseason needs to be locking up their restricted free agents. I would definitely look to give Wood and Noesen long-term deals and retain Santini for another year to see if there is anything there. Honestly, I don’t know much about Blake Coleman, the last of the Devils’ RFAs but his numbers make him out to be a competent player who likely can be signed relatively cheaply. He might not be a player to sign to a long-term contract but it might be smart to buy a few unrestricted free agent years (maybe sign him to a three-year contract).

The team likely will not get all of their RFAs locked up before unrestricted free agency begins but that shouldn’t really matter as the team moves into the offseason with close to $25M in salary cap space. The team has three unrestricted free agents where I think they have a tough decision. Patrick Maroon was a tremendous fit for the Devils when he came over in February but is 30 years old and is likely looking to cash in on his recent strong play. Matt Cane’s (@Cane_Matt) contract model has Maroon getting just over $5M per year on a four-year contract. I think Maroon could end up as high as $6M per when all is said and done. It might sound crazy but the Devils could easily fit that contract in provided they only go two years, which is the most I would feel comfortable with for Maroon anyways. The same model also predicts Michael Grabner will sign for four years and just under $4M per season. The Devils could easily pay them both but if they are going to choose one, I would lean toward Grabner as he fits well in the speed game the Devils have started to play. He also will likely come at a better value.

The Devils could use an upgrade on their blueline. John Moore has been a fine player for the team but I’m sure the Devils could do better. Even if they bring Moore back, they still could use a quality defenseman. Ideally, they retain Moore and banish Greene, Micro Muller, and Santini to the bench/minors. Mike Green could be a great fit for the Devils on a short-term deal. John Carlson also could fit the bill but I don’t think he will come at a reasonable price for the team. Although unlikely, the Devils are also a team that probably could make a strong swing for Erik Karlsson. They have the cap space and prospects to make it happen but I don’t know if giving up that much capital would be a wise decision.

The team also could use a top center to play with Taylor Hall (who couldn’t?). Hall spent the most time this season with Nico Hischier, who could become a great player but probably isn’t quite ready to be the first-line center on a quality playoff team, which the Devils obviously hope to become. Clearly, every team with cap space should be talking with John Tavares but the Devils are a team who definitely have the ability to make it work. The question is whether ownership will want to spend close to the cap. If they miss out on Tavares, they might be smart to look to sign either Paul Stastny, Tyler Bozak, or Joe Thornton to a short-term deal. I don’t know if any of those players can still play top line minutes but they could provide a nice 1B option to Hischier.

Please be sure to check in again tomorrow as we take an in-depth look at the Columbus Blue Jackets. If you enjoyed this review, please follow us on Twitter, @afpanalytics, and share it with your friends!

Stats have been pulled from NaturalStatTrick.com and Corsica.hockey. Salary info from Capfriendly.com.

KYLE STICH is the Director of AFP Analytics.  In addition, Mr. Stich is a tax specialist and Director of Operations at AFP Consulting LLC, whose clientele include professional athletes performing services on three separate continents. Mr. Stich earned his Master of Science in Sport Management with a Concentration in Sport Analytics from Columbia University in 2017. He earned his undergraduate degrees in Accounting and Sport Management from St. John Fisher College in 2015, where he has served as an adjunct professor teaching Sport Finance and Baseball Analytics.