Vegas Golden Knights

Next up in our 31 in 31 season review is a look at the Vegas Golden Knights, the record-setting expansion team that fell three wins short of winning the Stanley Cup. I think it is important to preface everything I write about the team with the fact that I, like many others, expected the team to be bad. They throttled my expectations. I think using their success as a way to insinuate the rest of the league’s GMs are dumb is a little off base. Dale Tallon messed up in a big way. Columbus’s and Minnesota’s decisions weren’t fantastic. The Islanders might have made the worst decision outside of Florida but it isn’t as talked about because they didn’t end up with a player on Vegas’s roster. I will maintain that the Knights could have been even better with a few different draft decisions but, again, who knows?

Season Bright Spots

Well, the entire team was a bright spot this season. No one was expecting them to be as good as they were. Some of their playoff success can be attributed to luck as Marc-Andre Fleury put up insane numbers until the team reached the Stanley Cup Playoffs. The team finished 13^thin the league in Corsi For % at 50.84%. If they perform at that level consistently in seasons to come, they should be a perennial playoff team. The playoffs will always be a different nature as much of it comes down to the “luck” a team is getting, whether that being a high save percentage or high shooting percentage. To prove this has some validity to it, let’s look at the top PDO (shooting % + save %) in the playoffs. This year Vegas was first, Washington 2^nd. Last year, Pittsburgh (winner) was second. The year before they were seventh while their opponent, the San Jose Sharks (runner-up) were first. In the 2014-2015 season, Chicago (winner) was second, 2013-2014 the Rangers (runner-up) were second and the Kings (winner) third. In the lockout-shortened 2013 season, Boston (runner-up) was second and Chicago (winner) was fourth. Basically, I want to make sure it is clear that putting too much stock into Vegas’s playoff run is misguided as a deep playoff run is usually due to luck.

As I said, I could highlight most players here for Vegas but I don’t have the space to do so. I will start by highlighting Vegas’s first line. Reilly Smith has shown evidence of being a quality player in the past and Jonathan Marchessault had been trending in that as well. However, William Karlsson came out of nowhere. The combination of the three was nothing short of magical. A case could be made for the line of Smith-Marchessault-Karlsson being the best in the entire league. They combined to score 53 goals during 5v5 play. To put that into perspective, the Buffalo Sabres, as a team scored 119 goals. That’s 45% of the Sabres’ goals! The line was also effective defensively, improving the team’s possession numbers by 3% when they were on the ice. You can’t do that if you’re pinned in the defensive zone every shift. Marchessault’s and Smith’s contracts will look like bargains for years to come if they maintain this level of play (I’m talking to you Dale Tallon!). Karlsson is a restricted free agent with arbitration rights so he will definitely be due a raise. If the team is smart and seeking to minimize their future cap hit, they should look to lock Karlsson up long-term (more on this idea this summer)!

The other player I have to highlight is Colin Miller. Miller took advantage of favorable offensive zone starts to be the best possession player on the team. Miller had an impressive 55.37% Corsi For % and a 6.45% Relative Corsi For %. Miller also led all defensemen in scoring during all situations with a very respectable 41 points. Miller, like Karlsson, is a restricted free agent with arbitration rights. The team should probably look to get him locked up to a five or six-year deal that would keep him with the team into his early 30s. You don’t want players much past then.

Major Disappointments

I’m not going to really dive into players here because, how can you? Most of the players played well above what was expected of them. Instead, I’m going to spend a little time on how I think the Golden Knights almost won in spite of the moves made by George McPhee. I can’t knock McPhee too much as the team he envisioned at the time of the expansion draft worked much better than anyone thought they would. However, I think there were instances where the team could have gotten more than they did.

Taking any unrestricted players without being enticed to do so seemed like a waste to me. I don’t think Vegas had to draft Derek Engelland in the expansion draft. He would’ve signed with them anyway. They could have added another player from Calgary. Connor Brickley and Chris Thorburn are selections that I think should have yielded Vegas more. They also needed to better manage their assets at the beginning of the season. They took too many NHL players and didn’t have deals arranged to move them, forcing them to keep Vadim Shipachyov in the AHL and eventually frustrating him to go back to Russia. Because they ended up making trades from a position of weakness, they got a lower return than they should have on some players.

The other decisions I have to question McPhee on were his trades leading up to the trade deadline. If you had told me after last season that Ryan Reaves would find himself on two different teams in 2017, I would have thought the Blues waived him, a team claimed him, waived him, and then a second team claimed him. Instead, he was traded twice for fairly substantial returns. For whatever reason, McPhee thought he couldn’t pass up the opportunity to add Reaves and was willing to help facilitate the Derick Brassard trade to the Pittsburgh Penguins. I don’t know why McPhee would’ve wanted to help the Penguins as at the time, Vegas was a clear Stanley Cup contender and so was Pittsburgh. Second, the return they got to make this trade happen and in exchange for losing $2M in salary cap space, next season was terrible.

The other trade to touch on is the acquisition of Tomas Tatar. The team gave up a first, second, and third-round pick for an average player signed to a so-so contract with term. They could’ve added Evander Kane or Rick Nash or Paul Stastny for less! I think McPhee was going for the home run by acquiring Erik Karlsson and panicked at the last minute so they decided to grab Tatar. Had they gotten a better return for what they gave up for Tatar, it could have resulted in them lifting the cup.

Offseason Plans

Dear George McPhee, don’t dole out a massive free-agent contract to anyone not named John Tavares. Your friend, Kyle. Seriously Vegas, you have one of the best future cap situations in the league, don’t go and blow it.

The team’s top priority has to be getting their restricted free agents taken care of. Karlsson, Miller, and Shea Theodore are promising young players who should be part of the team for years to come. Tomas Nosek and William Carrier are also restricted free agents and seemed to be tremendous depth players that should continue in that role next season. They also have to look at their unrestricted free agents. James Neal and David Perron are the only ones they should be considering bringing back. Giving out any contract that lasts longer than three years to either player would be a mistake. Otherwise, I wouldn’t have a problem with them bringing either player back. I guess I shouldn’t gloss over Brandon Pirri, who seems like he should be a good fit with the way Vegas plays but only played two games (scoring three goals), so making any sort of decision would be based off a very limited sample.

Vegas has a gift and a curse. As I’ve been discussing, Vegas has a great long-term cap situation, which is thanks in large part to them not having many long-term contracts on their books. They are currently due to have seven unrestricted free agents next offseason, with many of them being key components to their team. I think the team would be wise to work out extensions with them this offseason so they have certainty going into next season.

I don’t think Vegas should stand pat this offseason. They definitely could use a top pair defenseman and probably could use a quality second-line center to complement Marchessault. Vegas certainly has the ability to swing for the fences in a trade as they have assets and cap space. I’m going to go ahead and say Vegas is likely the best fit for an Erik Karlsson trade (assuming he agrees to a contract extension). They would likely have to offer a package revolving around Shea Theodore and one or two of their top prospects. If only they still had their 2018 first-round pick, I think an easier case could be made. As adamant as I have been about Vegas not adding any bad contracts, I might make an exception and take on Bobby Ryan if Ottawa would lower their ask for Karlsson. Ryan is still a decent player and Vegas would have the ability to work around that contract.

The other player I wonder about for Vegas is Ryan O’Reilly. I think there is still a struggle in evaluating the importance of faceoffs but Vegas was brutal in the playoffs, especially in the Stanley Cup Finals. They lost nearly every big faceoff and O’Reilly would certainly solve that. He also would be a great second-line center to be the more defensive complement to Marchessault. He would also serve as a first-line insurance policy if Marchessault regresses at all (unlikely). I think a trade revolving around Cody Eakin, Alex Tuch, and a top prospect is likely the starting price. I do question if O’Reilly would have the foot speed to play the style of hockey Vegas played this season but otherwise, I think he would check a lot of boxes for the team.

This offseason will be almost as important as the last offseason for the franchise. The team needs to be careful to not overreact to their immediate success. The team likely had a plan in place when they started and they should stick to that plan. Dipping into free agency would allow the team to continue to build their organizational depth and assets but will likely end up with a bad contract on the books. Trading is a way to add higher end talent (Tavares excluded) on better contracts but doing so will deplete their organizational depth. It will take a fine touch to navigate the offseason correctly. McPhee’s decisions have mostly paid off, but at some point, the questionable decision-making is going to catch up to him so my advice: proceed with caution.

If you enjoyed this review, please follow us on Twitter, @afpanalytics, and share it with your friends!

Stats have been pulled from NaturalStatTrick.com and Corsica.hockey. Salary info from Capfriendly.com.

KYLE STICH is the Director of AFP Analytics.  In addition, Mr. Stich is a tax specialist and Director of Operations at AFP Consulting LLC, whose clientele include professional athletes performing services on three separate continents. Mr. Stich earned his Master of Science in Sport Management with a Concentration in Sport Analytics from Columbia University in 2017. He earned his undergraduate degrees in Accounting and Sport Management from St. John Fisher College in 2015, where he has served as an adjunct professor teaching Sport Finance and Baseball Analytics.

Minnesota Wild

Next up in our 31 in 31 season review is a look at the Minnesota Wild. The Wild have been a fine team for many years now but once again fell to make any sort of deep playoff run. The constant wheel spinning and the perceived mismanagement of the Vegas Expansion draft seem to be the reasons Chuck Fletcher was replaced as GM by Paul Fenton. Fenton will have a tough job in front of him as ownership just made it clear that making the playoffs is not good enough. Unfortunately for Fenton, that is exactly the type of roster he has and making major tweaks to it will likely pose a challenge. In fact, the underlying numbers don’t look favorably at the Wild and they could be a team primed for a fall in the standings next season

Season Bright Spots

I am going to start this section by somewhat validating Fletcher’s decision in the expansion draft. One of the popular picks by pundits for the Golden Knights was Las Vegas native Jason Zucker. Fletcher opted to protect him and work out a deal to ensure neither Eric Staal or Matthew Dumba would’ve been taken. I think Minnesota would’ve regretted losing Staal and Zucker this season as taking one of those players out of the lineup would’ve likely would’ve resulted in the team missing the playoffs. Yes, both of those players were that important for the Wild this season. Dumba probably wasn’t quite as valuable this season but long-term, I think he would’ve been a piece Minnesota regretted losing.

I have already foreshadowed two of the players who were bright spots for the Wild this season in Eric Staal and Jason Zucker. Those two players in addition to Nino Niederreiter and Mikael Granlund were by far the Wild’s best forwards. Staal has always been thought of as a top line talent so it might not be much of a surprise that he performed at the level he did. When Eric Staal was on the ice, during 5v5 play, the Minnesota Wild controlled the shot differential 3.51% better. He also scored at a rate of 2.48 points per 60 during 5v5 play. That’s pretty good for a player who is 33 years old and signed to a contract with a $3.5M cap hit. I still don’t know how Minnesota was able to sign Staal for that bargain of a contract.

Jason Zucker has been a player steadily on the rise for the Wild and this season really took off. It can be argued that Zucker was the team’s best forward this season. Zucker was second, to Staal, in points per 60 at 2.1 during 5v5 play. The team was also 3.87% better when he was on the ice, which was the second-best among forwards behind Niederreiter. Zucker and Eric Staal seem to have found tremendous chemistry as both players played at a higher level when they played together than when they were playing a part. Zucker is arbitration eligible and a year away from unrestricted free agency. The Wild have to make a decision on him this offseason and should likely be looking to lock him up long-term.

I’m willing to bet that Nino Niederreiter is still likely underappreciated. Some might think this is crazy to say but Niederreiter is one of the best two-way forwards in the NHL and should be in the Selke conversation every season. The fact that Minnesota has him under contract for two more season for $5.25M is an absolute bargain, provided he can stay healthy, which until this season had not been an issue for him. This season Niederreiter had an absurd Relative Corsi For % of 6.92%, meaning the team was controlled shots that much better when he was on the ice. That’s an elite level of play. I can’t believe that the team was able to buyout four seasons of unrestricted free agency and only one arbitration year at that price. Niederreiter would likely fetch at least $7M (probably higher) this offseason had he hit the open market.

I also want to touch on the Wild’s best defenseman. No, it wasn’t Ryan Suter but rather Jared Spurgeon. When Spurgeon was on the ice the Wild better controlled the shot differential at a rate of 4.47%. Suter also was solid but that should be expected of him.

Major Disappointments

If you want to look at the underlying statistics the Wild were not a good team this season and we can point to many players why. However, I am going to start with the two trades Fletcher made last offseason. The first being the trade made with Vegas to provide protection, allowing Vegas to draft Erik Haula along with acquiring Alex Tuch in the expansion draft and the second with the Buffalo Sabres that sent Marco Scandella and Jason Pominville to Buffalo in exchange for Marcus Foligno and Tyler Ennis. As I previously alluded to, the expansion draft snafu might not be as bad as it is being made out to be but it certainly has to sting to watch those two players become key components for a top team. The trade with Buffalo was not good. Foligno was actually decent but his ceiling is not higher than a third-line player. Tyler Ennis could be a top six player but has sadly seen his career derailed due to injuries and he has never bounced back. I’m not sure banking on an Ennis turnaround was the smartest way to approach that trade. I think Minnesota needed to get a better return for one of their defenseman and that didn’t have to be Marco Scandella.

The defenseman who Minnesota likely should’ve looked to trade was Jonas Brodin. Looking at his possession numbers for his career, show that he has been average to below average. This season, the Wild, already a poor possession team, were 1.74% worse when Brodin was on the ice. I think Brodin likely would’ve had greater value than Scandella because of his age and I don’t think Scandella would’ve performed any worse. Not that this was a franchise-altering trade but this poor return and decision on which player to move just added another nail to Fletcher’s coffin.

I don’t want to completely dig into Zach Parise because I feel bad for him because of the number of injuries he has overcome. However, for the Wild, they are going to have to hope for another compliance buyout in the new CBA or for Parise to have an injury that prevents him from playing so the team can stash him on Long-term injured reserve. Unfortunately, Parise still has seven years left on his contract (that would keep him on the roster until he is 40). This season he only played 42 games and the Wild were 2.57% worse when he was on the ice. The worst part is smart money is on a 33-year-old player, with extensive injury history not suddenly improving their level of play.

Offseason Plans

Yikes. Paul Fenton has some heavy lifting to do (maybe the team should’ve hired Rick Dudley to do it) if the team is going to dramatically improve. Once the cap is finalized the team will likely have around $12M in salary cap space. That sounds manageable until you see Jason Zucker and Matt Dumba are both arbitration eligible. Zucker could eat up half of that cap space alone and the only option besides signing him is to trade him as there is no way they can justify walking away from an arbitration award if it gets that far. If you’ve read everything thus far, I think the Wild would take a massive step back without Zucker so in my mind, they have no option but to pay him and ideally, they would lock him up to a long-term deal as they can’t afford to go short-term and go through this again in a year or two. Matt Dumba will also likely earn a decent arbitration award should it get that far so Minnesota could be in big trouble at the end of arbitration season.

Waiting for those awards also would severely hamper their ability to construct a roster so the Wild will likely have to be proactive and take action sooner than later. Obviously, they have to clear salary as soon as possible. The likely starting point for shedding salary is Tyler Ennis. I can’t imagine a team trading for Ennis alone. The Wild would likely have to entice a team with an asset to take Ennis off their hands. A buyout could be another option to create immediate cap savings but it would also add a year of cap pain. Doing so would generate $2.4M in cap space.  At this moment I would estimate the Wild will likely have approximately $30M in cap space next offseason but could easily see a third of that eaten up by Zucker and Dumba. Potentially add in Ennis’s buyout and the team is likely down to $18M – $19M in space with Eric Staal potentially needing a new contract. It should be manageable so I would definitely expect an Ennis buyout this offseason.

Buying out Ennis might give them just enough cap space to work with but it still doesn’t give them much wiggle room. It certainly doesn’t provide them much flexibility to shake up their roster, basically forcing them to have to match salary if they make any trades, which really puts them at a disadvantage. The reality is the Wild have to sort Zucker and Dumba out ASAP because they can’t afford to let them play out. They have to know if they are going to count $10M, $12M, or more toward the cap. If I’m spit-balling, I can’t see that dual counting for much less than $10M combined. Even with an Ennis buyout, the team is looking at $4M to $5M max in salary cap space. They likely are going to have to hope their young players can energize their roster but with a new GM in charge, a massive roster shakeup can’t be ruled out. However, if Fenton wishes to put his own stamp on the roster, I wish him good luck!

Please be sure to check in again tomorrow as we take an in-depth look at the Anaheim Ducks. If you enjoyed this review, please follow us on Twitter, @afpanalytics, and share it with your friends!

Stats have been pulled from NaturalStatTrick.com and Corsica.hockey. Salary info from Capfriendly.com.

KYLE STICH is the Director of AFP Analytics.  In addition, Mr. Stich is a tax specialist and Director of Operations at AFP Consulting LLC, whose clientele include professional athletes performing services on three separate continents. Mr. Stich earned his Master of Science in Sport Management with a Concentration in Sport Analytics from Columbia University in 2017. He earned his undergraduate degrees in Accounting and Sport Management from St. John Fisher College in 2015, where he has served as an adjunct professor teaching Sport Finance and Baseball Analytics.

For the next 31 days, AFP Analytics is going to take a critical look back at how the season played out for all 31 NHL teams, starting with the last place team (Buffalo Sabres) and ending with the Stanley Cup Champions. In addition to a season recap, we will look at some major decisions the team will be facing this offseason.

Los Angeles Kings

Next up in our 31 in 31 season review is a look at the Los Angeles Kings. After an offseason of change to their hockey ops department and coaching staff, the Kings looked poised to regain their championship form only to be steamrolled by the Vegas Golden Knights in the first round of the playoffs. Their playoff loss is probably more indicative of how the team stacks up in today’s NHL rather than their fairly successful regular season.

Season Bright Spots

This section has to start with the revival of Dustin Brown. Brown continued to be a top possession player during 5v5 play, leading all forwards in Corsi For % and Relative Corsi For %. He also scored at the third best rate during 5v5 play of his career. This season he was propelled by a higher shooting percentage than he has put up the previous three seasons. As these reviews are meant to be a quick overview, I can’t point to definite reasons why he shot better this year than the previous three but I have a few theories. First, he likely was due to progress as he had shot well below his career average the last few seasons. However, this might not simply be a regression to the mean discussion. I have a hypothesis that I have no way of backing up. I wonder if a new coaching staff and playing style propelled Brown to shoot at a much better rate than ever before. I think this is something that would need to be looked at through video but I have already spent way too much time writing these reviews so I can’t do that at the present time. If anyone reading this would like to prove or debunk my theory please do!

Brown’s revival certainly was a bright spot this season for the Kings but I’m not sure if fans can be overly excited regarding Brown. This season Brown definitely produced at a level worthy of his $5.875M cap hit. However, at age 33, I don’t think it is feasible to expect Brown to continue to improve his play. It has to be concerning for the Kings’ organization that his contract will be on the books for another four years. I wonder if the Kings would look to explore moving him while his value is high. Though with Brown being able to list eight teams he would accept a trade to, it seems pretty unlikely a trade could be work without Brown’s complete cooperation.

The next player to highlight here is undrafted rookie free agent, Alex Iafallo. The Kings have been tight to the cap the past few seasons and have been in need of top-line talent. For whatever reason, they haven’t had much success finding that talent internally. Enter Iafallo. Iafallo didn’t produce the same number of points compared to some of the Kings other top players but he did put up some of the best possession numbers on the team. In fact, Iafallo ranked second to Brown in Corsi For % and Relative Corsi For %. When Iafallo was on the ice, the Kings were a better team. The hope for the Kings is the scoring will follow and it likely will. Even if it doesn’t, the Kings have to be ecstatic that Iafallo was able to more than hold his own while playing top line minutes as a rookie. The even better news is Iafallo was as good when he played away from Anze Kopitar as when he played with him, meaning any argument looking at Iafallo as being carried by Kopitar is invalid.

The final player I am going to highlight in this section is Johnathan Quick. For those who haven’t been following along, I want to digress quickly to make sure I note that just because a player is not highlighted in this section it doesn’t mean they had a bad season. I have used this section to highlight players who outperformed expectations. Anze Kopitar and Drew Doughty were great but that’s what was expected of them. So now you’re probably wondering why I would discuss Quick because many people expect him to be great as well. I’m going to let you in on a secret, Johnathan Quick really hasn’t been that good of a regular season goalie. Shhhh, don’t tell anyone. However, this season Quick was phenomenal. He saved 11.53 goals above average this season, fifth best in the league. Out of all the years to talk about Quick as a Vezina candidate, this was probably the year. Goalies seem like they can certainly play at a high level well into their thirties so maybe the Kings won’t completely regret that long-term contract Quick signed but they are going to want more seasons like this one to be truly comfortable with it.

Major Disappointments

As I alluded to in the last section, I am using these sections to highlight players who truly excelled or truly disappointed. I think most of the Kings’ players performed pretty much as expected. I also want to commend the Kings for recognizing the players who were struggling and not play them. However, I will quickly touch on a few players here.

I will start with Jeff Carter. His possession numbers were not great. In the games he played, the Kings performed worse, at least in terms of shot generation and suppression, when Carter was on the ice. I don’t know if it is something worth reading too much into. I think the bigger disappointment is that he missed most of the season due to injury. If Carter had been healthy, the Kings probably would’ve finished higher in their division and avoided Vegas in the first round. I would have made them the favorite against the Ducks so in the big picture, Carter’s injury has to be a little disappointing. If Kings’ fans want to look at the bright side, Carter’s injury isn’t one that should raise concern for a long-term injury issue. The pessimistic side is Carter is 33 years old and still has four years remaining on his contract. However, a $5.27M cap hit, with no trade/move clause and a lower salary than cap hit, should give the Kings flexibility with Carter going forward if they decide they need to move him.

Probably the biggest concern for the Kings and their fans is the sudden and fairly drastic decline in the play of Alec Martinez. For his entire career, Martinez was a dominant possession player and suddenly this season, the Kings were shelled when he was on the ice. When Martinez was on the ice, the Kings gave up 5.56% more shots than when Martinez was on the bench. That was worst among regular Kings defensemen. Much like my discussion on Brown, I don’t know if I have any explanation for Martinez’s poor season. Luckily, he is signed to a relatively team friendly contract with a cap hit of $4M per season but he will be is now on the wrong side of 30 so expecting a dramatic improvement in play next season might be unrealistic.

I understand the Kings’ thinking in trading Marion Gaborik for Dion Phaneuf but I don’t know how smart of a move that will turn out to be. Phaneuf was not good for the Kings after he came over in the trade, putting up possession numbers very similar to Alec Martinez. Three more seasons of a $5.25M cap hit is not desirable. I don’t know if the slight difference in cap hit was really worth moving Gaborik for Phaneuf.

Offseason Plans

The Kings are an interesting team. They basically have their roster set for next season. They have 12 forwards, six defensemen, and two goalies under contract for next year. For a team that probably could benefit from some changes, I don’t think this is a great position for them to be in. I also don’t see any players that are overly attractive trade options that I would think the Kings would be open to trading.

The biggest need for the Kings is an improvement to their bottom six forwards. Most of the players they currently have are uninspiring. I wonder if they could work out a short-term deal with a player like James Neal, David Perron, or Patrick Maroon. They could slot in the team’s middle six and push another player down the lineup, which would probably help solve some of the team’s depth issues. Otherwise, I don’t really know what the team is going to do. They will have around $9M in cap space to work with but don’t really have spots for a player to come in and play.

I think the smart play for the Kings this offseason would be to look to build up their farm system. The team could use an infusion of youth and speed but I don’t know who currently would fit the bill in the Kings’ organization. This is where they could be wise to use their cap space this offseason. The Kings’ could take on a big money contract with a year left along with an asset, whether that is a draft pick or prospect and then bury a player in the minors (Brooks Orpik maybe). Their number one priority has to be keeping cap space clear next offseason when Drew Doughty will likely be drawing big money.

Overall, I expect a very quiet offseason in Los Angeles aside from possibly announcing a Drew Doughty extension.

Please be sure to check in again tomorrow as we take an in-depth look at the Pittsburgh Penguins. If you enjoyed this review, please follow us on Twitter, @afpanalytics, and share it with your friends!

Stats have been pulled from NaturalStatTrick.com and Corsica.hockey. Salary info from Capfriendly.com.

KYLE STICH is the Director of AFP Analytics.  In addition, Mr. Stich is a tax specialist and Director of Operations at AFP Consulting LLC, whose clientele include professional athletes performing services on three separate continents. Mr. Stich earned his Master of Science in Sport Management with a Concentration in Sport Analytics from Columbia University in 2017. He earned his undergraduate degrees in Accounting and Sport Management from St. John Fisher College in 2015, where he has served as an adjunct professor teaching Sport Finance and Baseball Analytics.

For the next 31 days, AFP Analytics is going to take a critical look back at how the season played out for all 31 NHL teams, starting with the last place team (Buffalo Sabres) and ending with the Stanley Cup Champions. In addition to a season recap, we will look at some major decisions the team will be facing this offseason.

New Jersey Devils

Next up in our 31 in 31 season review is a look at the New Jersey Devils, a team who finished last in the Eastern Conference and won the draft lottery last offseason only to turn around and make the playoffs. These aren’t the same New Jersey Devils I grew up watching as they played a fast-pace, offensive focused game, a far cry from the slow-paced defensive minded game they had previously played.

Season Bright Spots

If I am being honest, the Devils were probably lucky to make the playoffs as their possession numbers were 11^th worst in the league as they had a Corsi For % of 48.59%. The reason they likely overcame this low possession number is they dominated on fast breaks, led by Taylor Hall, who is in discussion to be this year’s most valuable player. Hall was incredible and clearly a player the Oilers wish they still had to ride shotgun with Connor McDavid. He doesn’t have eye popping possession numbers, with a Corsi For % of 51.28% and a Relative Corsi For % of 3.85% during 5v5 play, but the team wouldn’t have sniffed the playoffs without him. His scoring numbers were ballooned by his strong power play scoring but he was still one of the best players in the league this season and trying to deny it is silly.

The next player to discuss is Will Butcher, the rookie defenseman who New Jersey signed as a free agent after he played out his four seasons at the University of Denver and failed to reach an agreement with the Colorado Avalanche. He also was the Hobby Baker winner in his senior season. However, teams saw him as undersized and many thought he would likely be AHL bound this season. However, he not only made the Devils out of training camp but he exceled all season.

Butcher made the Devils better when he was on the ice during 5v5 play. How much better? The Devils had a 6% higher shot share when Butcher was on the ice, best on the team.  He also had the best Corsi For % during 5v5 play, 53.14%. He also led Devil defensemen in points per 60 during 5v5 play. I’m not saying he should win the Calder Trophy (rookie of the year) but I don’t think Butcher has gotten enough national recognition for what he has accomplished this season.

I am going to conclude this section with a blanket shout out to the young forwards on the team. Nico Hischier, Pavel Zacha, Miles Wood, and Stefan Noesen all were quality players for the team this season, which has to excite Devil fans considering their age. All four of those players finished with an even or positive Relative Corsi For %. What this means for the Devils is these players all improve (or in Zacha’s case maintains) the level of play when they are on the ice. The even better news is these players are likely to get better the next few seasons as well. Wood and Noesen are restricted free agents this summer so the Devils will have to make a decision on them, whether to go short-term or long-term.

If the team sees Noesen in their plans going forward, which they should, they should look to go long-term with him this offseason. If you have read any of my other work, you should know that I would also favor going eight years for Wood. For a player who relies heavily on his speed, there has to be some concern that once he hits 30, he will be unable to maintain his style of play. However, a long-term deal this summer would end when he is no older than 30. Jesper Bratt also should be highlighted quickly as he performed well considering he was a sixth-round pick but his possession numbers are concerning. The team was 3% worse when he was on the ice. Considering the Devils were a team that finished low in possession to begin with, it is not a great sign that the team was even worse when Bratt was on the ice.

Major Disappointments

I think it is hard to discuss a lot in this section considering the team went from worst in the conference to the playoffs. The definite place to start though is with goaltender Cory Schneider. Schneider got off to a good start this season but struggled mightily at the end of the season, being replaced as the regular starter by Keith Kinkaid. Though Schneider did regain his form in the playoffs as he was the far superior goalie for the Devils in their first-round playoff loss. The decision to make Kinkaid the number one was backed up by the numbers. Kinkaid was basically average during 5v5 play while Schneider allowed 2.5 goals below average. During all situations Kinkaid saved 6.43 goals above average while Schneider saved 3.49 above average.

The next player I am going to discuss is Steve Santini. To be frank, the team got shelled when he was on the ice. Santini had the worst Relative Corsi For % out of any player to play at all for the Devils and he played 36 games! When Santini was on the ice, the Devils allowed 12.12% more shots. It still might be a little early to write Santini off but it also is concerning that his possession numbers regressed from last season in only 50 minutes more of ice time. The one positive to look at for Santini is he did improve his goals for % from 40.54% to 48.78%. During 5v5 play this season, Santini was only on the ice for one more goal allowed than the team scored. The Devils have to be hoping to Santini progress next season.

Finally, I will quickly touch on Andy Greene. It looks like father time has continued to take his toll on the Devils’ captain. Greene has been a negative possession player for the last four seasons and has been on a steady decline in that time span. Greene still has two more years at $5M remaining on his contract; the Devils have no one to blame but themselves as they signed Greene to an extension even after his play started to decline. The silver lining for the team though is Greene’s contract will be off the books when Taylor Hall is due a new contract. Even though that $5M is an overpayment for a player with Greene’s level of performance, it shouldn’t have a major impact on the team’s offseason plans the next two years. They should have plenty of cap space to work with.

Offseason Plans

The Devils’ top priority this offseason needs to be locking up their restricted free agents. I would definitely look to give Wood and Noesen long-term deals and retain Santini for another year to see if there is anything there. Honestly, I don’t know much about Blake Coleman, the last of the Devils’ RFAs but his numbers make him out to be a competent player who likely can be signed relatively cheaply. He might not be a player to sign to a long-term contract but it might be smart to buy a few unrestricted free agent years (maybe sign him to a three-year contract).

The team likely will not get all of their RFAs locked up before unrestricted free agency begins but that shouldn’t really matter as the team moves into the offseason with close to $25M in salary cap space. The team has three unrestricted free agents where I think they have a tough decision. Patrick Maroon was a tremendous fit for the Devils when he came over in February but is 30 years old and is likely looking to cash in on his recent strong play. Matt Cane’s (@Cane_Matt) contract model has Maroon getting just over $5M per year on a four-year contract. I think Maroon could end up as high as $6M per when all is said and done. It might sound crazy but the Devils could easily fit that contract in provided they only go two years, which is the most I would feel comfortable with for Maroon anyways. The same model also predicts Michael Grabner will sign for four years and just under $4M per season. The Devils could easily pay them both but if they are going to choose one, I would lean toward Grabner as he fits well in the speed game the Devils have started to play. He also will likely come at a better value.

The Devils could use an upgrade on their blueline. John Moore has been a fine player for the team but I’m sure the Devils could do better. Even if they bring Moore back, they still could use a quality defenseman. Ideally, they retain Moore and banish Greene, Micro Muller, and Santini to the bench/minors. Mike Green could be a great fit for the Devils on a short-term deal. John Carlson also could fit the bill but I don’t think he will come at a reasonable price for the team. Although unlikely, the Devils are also a team that probably could make a strong swing for Erik Karlsson. They have the cap space and prospects to make it happen but I don’t know if giving up that much capital would be a wise decision.

The team also could use a top center to play with Taylor Hall (who couldn’t?). Hall spent the most time this season with Nico Hischier, who could become a great player but probably isn’t quite ready to be the first-line center on a quality playoff team, which the Devils obviously hope to become. Clearly, every team with cap space should be talking with John Tavares but the Devils are a team who definitely have the ability to make it work. The question is whether ownership will want to spend close to the cap. If they miss out on Tavares, they might be smart to look to sign either Paul Stastny, Tyler Bozak, or Joe Thornton to a short-term deal. I don’t know if any of those players can still play top line minutes but they could provide a nice 1B option to Hischier.

Please be sure to check in again tomorrow as we take an in-depth look at the Columbus Blue Jackets. If you enjoyed this review, please follow us on Twitter, @afpanalytics, and share it with your friends!

Stats have been pulled from NaturalStatTrick.com and Corsica.hockey. Salary info from Capfriendly.com.

KYLE STICH is the Director of AFP Analytics.  In addition, Mr. Stich is a tax specialist and Director of Operations at AFP Consulting LLC, whose clientele include professional athletes performing services on three separate continents. Mr. Stich earned his Master of Science in Sport Management with a Concentration in Sport Analytics from Columbia University in 2017. He earned his undergraduate degrees in Accounting and Sport Management from St. John Fisher College in 2015, where he has served as an adjunct professor teaching Sport Finance and Baseball Analytics.

For the next 31 days, AFP Analytics is going to take a critical look back at how the season played out for all 31 NHL teams, starting with the last place team (Buffalo Sabres) and ending with the Stanley Cup Champions. In addition to a season recap, we will look at some major decisions the team will be facing this offseason.

Florida Panthers

Next up in our 31 in 31 season review is a look at the Florida Panthers, a team who struggled for much of the season but were in playoff contention into the final weekend of the regular season thanks to a late season surge. Luckily for the Panthers, they now have good hockey men calling the shots once again. They clearly came to their senses after one season of going all in on analytics that the embrace of data clearly does not work. I find it unbelievable that those computer boys couldn’t predict injuries. I turned the sarcasm meter up to 10 to type that. I usually keep this section short but I think it is important to address the premise of what I just typed.

I do not know exactly how many teams employ someone to act as an analyst but I would expect it is more than many would make expect. However, I wonder how much of a voice those analysts are given and how many organizations will fully embrace the use of analytics. Some team will try to fully buy in like the Panthers did two offseasons ago. The problem is teams will look at the Panthers and think the embrace of analytics was a failure and because of that not embrace it themselves. I still think we are a few years away from seeing another team try like the Panthers did. Maybe I am wrong and a team has quietly done just that but from my outside perspective, I don’t see it.

I think all parties with any sort of influence are to blame here. First, although I wrote the first paragraph in this section almost as a satire, it isn’t far off words that have been written by many media members who cover the NHL. When that is the type of perception around analytics and that is the what many fans are reading on a consistent basis, it isn’t difficult to see why NHL teams have a hard time embracing their usage. Even though public relations shouldn’t influence making decisions, it certainly will play a role. Money talks and if fans are fed a negative perception they may stop spending on the team very quickly.

Next, the Florida Panthers were definitely too fast to declare the analytics a failure. Teams usually give at least three years to new regimes to allow them to put their stamp on the team and that should have been the case here as well. The perception around the team likely resulted in them moving on quickly. Part of that was the overly negative media coverage but part of that the Panthers brought on themselves. I don’t want to start a war with what I am about to type but there seems to be too many in the “analytic community” who don’t properly deal with a dissenting opinion. This isn’t unique to hockey and is probably fine in the virtual world but when you start dealing with a business and dealing with people on a day to day basis, you have to be careful with how you treat others.

I wrote a final paper on this topic for a leadership class that I took while working toward my Master’s at Columbia University. That paper was 14 pages of content. As such, this topic is much too complex to fully discuss here so my thoughts provided here are not entirely complete and should be considered as such. However, before I dove into our regular review style, I felt the need to have that discussion as it will add context to the rest of the discussion.

Season Bright Spots

The obvious player to start with is Evgenii Dadonov. The Panthers had a, ahem, questionable offseason. The signing of Dadonov certainly was not a move that played into that. Dadonov was tremendous for the Panthers this season. During 5v5 play, he led the team in Corsi For %, Relative Corsi For %, and Points per 60. When looking at the numbers, it is hard to argue that Dadonov was the best player at even strength for the team.

Alexsander Barkov was another player who had a tremendous season for the Panthers. Barkov, who is still only 22 years old, has quietly developed into one of the league’s premier players. The Panthers raised a few eyebrows when they drafted Barkov 2^ndoverall in the loaded 2013 NHL Draft in lieu of Seth Jones and Jonathan Drouin. However, his play has certainly validated the Panthers’ decision to take him above those other players. This season he excelled while playing tough minutes for the team. Barkov played the most minutes at 5v5, with a good portion coming against other teams’ top lines, and the Panthers were approximately 3% better when Barkov was on the ice versus when he was off. Not to mention he was also second to Dadonov in 5v5 Points per 60 among regular players. Not bad for a 22-year-old, who is on a team friendly contract for four more seasons.

The final player I player I want to discuss is Nick Bjugstad. Bjugstad seems to be a player who was underappreciated this season. Bjugstad was just behind Barkov in Points per 60 (.03 less) and was second among forwards in his possession numbers during 5v5 play, behind Dadonov but ahead of Barkov. I feel like I see Bjugstad’s name come up as a potential trade candidate regularly. He had struggled the past two seasons but his play this season should quiet those rumors. Despite his play in the previous two seasons, he was still signed to a team friendly contract. There is no reason the Panthers should be entertaining any trade offers on Bjugstad this offseason but who knows after the last offseason.

Major Disappointments

I’ll start with the low hanging fruit. Seeing Jonathan Marchessault and Reilly Smith go to Vegas and makeup two-thirds of one of the best lines in hockey. The team gave both of those players away in order to clear Smith’s $5M cap hit off their books. This decision made absolutely zero sense. I feel as if I could name at least 20 players at the time who are signed to clearly worse contracts before I would even start to consider Smith. It’s especially shocking that they considered the $5M cap hit a problem because of the guarantee of a cap rise thanks to the Vegas expansion fee. I think most would agree the Panthers made by far the worst decision in the expansion draft.

I am going to continue to harp on the poor decision-making process in Florida and discuss the Mike Matheson contract extension. Let me first say, I don’t think Matheson’s play was necessarily disappointing but the decision to sign him to the contract extension mid-season follows a scary trend of following a poor decision-making process. I don’t think the long-term contract is as much of a problem as many do think but I question the timing of the signing. I see no reason to ever offer a contract extension to a pending restricted free agent until they become a restricted free agent. That philosophy does not apply unilaterally for superstar players like Connor McDavid.

The reason for this philosophy is related to sample size. Obviously, the more information you can collect on a player, the better the decision you can make. It could also save you money in the long run. My philosophy could change if teams actually start to utilize offer sheets but for now, I am sticking buy it. Too often teams will try to lock up a young player as soon as they show signs of promise, which is like buying a stock at its all-time high. It is likely that after three years you should have a pretty good idea of how good of a player your young player is. By waiting the full three years, it’s very likely you will have sorted through the ebbs and flows and are paying the correct price for the player. The worst-case scenario is the player continues to get better and you end up paying them a little more money in the end. But who doesn’t want to see their player continue to get better?

I think, for the most part, players on the Panthers performed generally as expected except for the Panthers’ top defensive pair of Aaron Ekblad and Keith Yandle. It is less surprising that Yandle’s play is regressing as he is likely on the wrong side of the aging curve and maybe should be used in a role where he sees more sheltered minutes during 5v5 play. I am a Keith Yandle fan but I think the Panthers will certainly come to regret the seven-year contract they gave him. It will probably be a few years too long. The decline in play of 22-year-old Aaron Ekblad has to be concerning. The Panthers performed just under 2% worse when Ekblad was on the ice. This past season was also the first of his career where he finished below 50% in Corsi For %. I don’t know if I have a ready explanation for it but it is a trend to watch. If he bounces back next season, it is likely a blip on the radar but if the poor play continues, the team and their fans certainly have to be concerned.

Offseason Plans

Don’t continue to undo everything done in the “analytics era!” I probably could leave it at that and it would be the best plan I’ve written yet. However, I’ll expand a little. The team really could use another dynamic scorer or two. Someone like a Reilly Smith or Johanthan Marchessault. Too soon? Ok, NOW I’ll get serious.

The Panthers are set up incredibly well for the next few seasons. Their young core is signed to long-term, team friendly deals and with the salary cap rising the team should have plenty of cap space the next few years. I would recommend they retain their restricted free agents in Jared McCann, Frank Vatrano, Alec Petrovic, and MacKenzie Weegar. After those contracts are signed, they should still have between $9M and $11M in salary cap space unless they choose to go long-term for any of those players.

The question is whether ownership will allow the team to spend the money. Not to beat a dead horse, but the team will have a filled-out roster with enough cap space to fit in both Smith and Marchessault. Having both of those players would be a definite improvement over any other move they could make this offseason to fill the unused cap space. Most likely the Smith/ Marchessault move was made because ownership does not want to spend to the cap, which means the Panthers are likely to have a very quiet offseason.

Please be sure to check in again tomorrow as we take an in-depth look at the Colorado Avalanche. If you enjoyed this review, please follow us on Twitter, @afpanalytics, and share it with your friends!

Stats have been pulled from NaturalStatTrick.com and Corsica.hockey. Salary info from Capfriendly.com.

KYLE STICH is the Director of AFP Analytics.  In addition, Mr. Stich is a tax specialist and Director of Operations at AFP Consulting LLC, whose clientele include professional athletes performing services on three separate continents. Mr. Stich earned his Master of Science in Sport Management with a Concentration in Sport Analytics from Columbia University in 2017. He earned his undergraduate degrees in Accounting and Sport Management from St. John Fisher College in 2015, where he has served as an adjunct professor teaching Sport Finance and Baseball Analytics.

For the next 31 days, AFP Analytics is going to take a critical look back at how the season played out for all 31 NHL teams, starting with the last place team (Buffalo Sabres) and ending with the Stanley Cup Champions. In addition to a season recap, we will look at some major decisions the team will be facing this offseason.

St. Louis Blues

Next up in our 31 in 31 season review is a look at the St. Louis Blues. A team that was 60 minutes away from making the playoffs despite trading Paul Stastny at the deadline. They are a team who many observers have expected to take a step forward and possibly contend for a Stanley Cup for a couple of years now. Well, we’re still waiting and now I think it is time to wonder if it is time to make some major changes to the roster. 

Season Bright Spots

The Blues’ possession numbers indicate they were a good team this past season. They finished sixth in the league in Corsi For % at 51.7%. They also finished with a PDO of exactly one. When looking at the team’s numbers, I don’t see how they did not make the playoffs. Everything about them says playoff team. They had good possession numbers and did not get unlucky. The way I look at it, if the team performs at the same level next season it is hard to see them fall short of the playoffs again.

Jaden Schwartz was great for the Blues in the games he played. Unfortunately for the team, he missed 20 games. Had he been healthy all season, the Blues likely were in the playoffs. Schwartz led the team in Relative Corsi For % at 6.86%, meaning the Blues were that percent better in terms of shot differential when Schwartz was on the ice versus when he was off. He also led the team in Points per 60. All of those stats are solely during 5v5 play.

I think it is also important to highlight Brayden Schenn here. The Blues paid a lofty price to acquire him at last year’s draft, giving up last year’s first rounder and this year’s first rounder in addition to Jori Lehtera. At that price, the team better have acquired a top end talent and in his first season Schenn lived up to that billing. Schenn was the team’s leading point scorer in all situations. The team also improved their shots by 4.30% when Schenn was on the ice. If this is your first time reading my writing, I want to be sure I clarify that when I discuss shots, I am referring to Corsi. I subscribe to the thinking that there is no want to attempt a shot. When shots on measured in soccer everything kicked toward goal is counted as a shot and then shots on goal are separately denoted. I think the same logic should be applied in hockey.

This season bright spot section is shorter than many that I write not because the Blues had a horrible season but because many of the players played exactly at the level that was expected of them. I don’t feel it is necessary to praise players who play at the level expected of them. I have generally used this section to look at those players whose underlying numbers tell a different story than the general perception of them or players who played at a much higher level than many others. In honesty, very few Blues fit that bill.

Major Disappointments

Something had to go wrong for the Blues to miss the playoffs and I think the starting point has to be looking at goalie Jake Allen. I have never been a huge Jake Allen fan. To me, he seems to have issues as the pressure ramps up on him. I wonder if it is a mental issue or if he truly isn’t as talented as many have thought he is. Why do I think talent might be an issue? The answer is in higher pressure situations opposing teams play close to or above their true ability and if Allen can’t handle that, it may be a talent problem. Allen allowed 2.5 goals below average at 5v5 play, which isn’t terrible but the team would obviously want to see Allen perform above average. The real issue with Allen is he allowed a whopping 16 goals below average during all situations! WOW! I think this somewhat confirms my theory about the pressure. At 5v5 play he actually improved from last season and still was not that great. It might be time for the Blues to move on.

The next player to look at is Jay Bouwmeester. Let’s start with the good news: he only has one more year left on his contract so he shouldn’t be a long-term issue. The Blues were a good possession team but when Bouwmeester was on the ice they performed 4.7% worse. Bouwmeester was among the team worsts in this regard. Injuries may have played a role in his poor play this season, but that isn’t really a reason for optimism either. Once players get in their mid-thirties, durability becomes a concern and Bouwmeester is no different. The biggest cause for concern has to be that his season ended as a result of a hip injury. It seems the end is probably near for Bouwmeester.

Much like the bright spots, I don’t think there is that much to highlight here. As I have written in other reviews, I am trying to reserve this section to highlight players who performed dramatically below what was expected of them. As I’ve been discussing for most of this discussion, the Blues performed pretty much as expected across the board, which is good and bad. You always want to see players take a step forward and play at a higher level than they have before but there also is something to be said of players who can continuously play at the same level without any let downs. I will confidently say the Blues would have made the playoffs if one of the following two things did not happen: 1) Jake Allen played at or around an average level in all situations. 2) Jaden Schwartz doesn’t miss 20 games.

Offseason Plans

The Blues enter the offseason with plenty of cap space (potentially as much as $18M) while needing to strength their top six. What makes the team very interesting is the fact they have some highly touted prospects who appear to be close to making the jump to the NHL. They also only have two unrestricted players, Scottie Upshall and Kyle Brodziak. Neither of those players should be retained. The Blues, if they choose could essentially fill out their roster while still have having as much as $12M in cap space. They also have plenty of money coming off their cap next offseason as well, giving them plenty of flexibility. This could make for a very interesting offseason in St. Louis.

Many teams are going to be connected to John Tavares. However, the Blues, in my opinion, are one of the teams where the connection truly makes sense. They have the cap space this offseason, their largest long-term contract on the books is Vladimir Tarasenko’s, this contract carries a cap hit of $7.5M. Adding a contract with a higher cap hit than that is very possible, especially considering the team will likely have around a quarter of their roster comprised of entry-level contracts for at least the next three years. Adding John Tavares would likely take the Blues from border line playoff team to Western Conference contender. The Blues could have one of the top lines in the league with Schwartz-Tavares-Tarasenko then potentially follow that up with Robby Fabbri (if healthy)- Schenn-Alex Steen/ Patrik Berglund/Tage Thompson (two of who would play on the third line). That forward group would be extremely hard for teams to deal with.

If the Blues fail to land Tavares, the rumors connecting them to the Buffalo Sabres’ Ryan O’Reilly will really build steam. The connection has been made since the trade deadline and there is no way those rumors are going to go away. Many people will point to this being a fit because the Blues are stockpiled with top end prospects. I am going to make a bold statement here: If the Blues want to acquire O’Reilly, they should steer trade discussion around roster players. I don’t think O’Reilly is any better of a player than Paul Statsny and the Blues’ roster came up short with Statsny. I don’t see O’Reilly making that big of a difference so mortgaging their bright future to me makes little sense though acquiring him will solidify the Blues as solid playoffs contenders.

The number one priority for the Blues this offseason has to be solving their issues in net. Carter Hutton was very good in the games he played but a 32-year-old career backup is unlikely to be a long-term solution in goal. Ville Husso is the team’s top goalie prospect and it could be time to give him a chance. He, of course, is no sure thing as he has yet to even appear in a NHL game.

If you’ve been reading our other team reviews, it should be apparent that I am a fan of both Washington Capitals goaltenders, Braden Holtby and Philipp Grubauer. The team likely has to make a decision this offseason as Grubauer is arbitration eligible and only a year away from unrestricted free agency. Holtby carries a $6.1M cap hit for two more years. The Capitals also have highly regarded prospect Ilya Samsonov for the future. Either goalie would be a very viable option for the Blues. The Capitals will take plenty of calls so either goalie won’t come cheap but I think both would be an upgrade over Jake Allen. I also think Jake Allen would have enough value that the Blues would likely be able to recoup some assets if they make a trade for a goalie. I think the team needs to find a goalie to act as a stop gate for two to three years while Husso is eased into the NHL. I don’t know if that goalie is available in free agency.

The Blues offseason could take many different paths. The smart one is probably to go all-in for John Tavares and supplement their roster with their young talent. If they could land Tavares on a three or four-year deal, that would give them a nice window of opportunity without completely killing their future salary cap. If I were running the team and missed out on Tavares, I would likely look to change up my core, attempting to trade roster players for roster players. The only players I would keep off the table are the top prospects and Colton Parayko. I may sound crazy to not include any of the team’s other top players but none of them bring anything unique enough to completely rule out a trade on them. I would not trade top players for cents on the dollar but I would be willing to listen on “hockey trades,” as the Blues’ roster has proven it isn’t quite good enough. The worst plan, but the one I see as the most likely route, is to trade one or two of the team’s top prospects for players who they think will come in and make an immediate impact, only to be disappointed, then be on the hook for a long-term, high money contract, and be out a top prospect who likely will quickly outperform the veteran player they just acquired.

Please be sure to check in again tomorrow as we take an in-depth look at the Florida Panthers. If you enjoyed this review, please follow us on Twitter, @afpanalytics, and share it with your friends!

Stats have been pulled from NaturalStatTrick.com and Corsica.hockey. Salary info from Capfriendly.com.

KYLE STICH is the Director of AFP Analytics.  In addition, Mr. Stich is a tax specialist and Director of Operations at AFP Consulting LLC, whose clientele include professional athletes performing services on three separate continents. Mr. Stich earned his Master of Science in Sport Management with a Concentration in Sport Analytics from Columbia University in 2017. He earned his undergraduate degrees in Accounting and Sport Management from St. John Fisher College in 2015, where he has served as an adjunct professor teaching Sport Finance and Baseball Analytics.

For the next 31 days, AFP Analytics is going to take a critical look back at how the season played out for all 31 NHL teams, starting with the last place team (Buffalo Sabres) and ending with the Stanley Cup Champions. In addition to a season recap, we will look at some major decisions the team will be facing this offseason.

Calgary Flames

Next up in our 31 in 31 season review is a look at the Calgary Flames, a team who was a trendy offseason pick to be a contender in the Western Conference. On paper the team looked pretty solid, with a competent forward group, one of the best bluelines in the NHL, and a perceived upgrade in goal. This season was supposed to be the first in their window of opportunity. Things could not have gone much worse and now the Flames enter the offseason with more questions than answers.

Season Bright Spots

The underlying numbers suggest the team should have better results next season if they play at a similar level to this season. The team was third best in the entire league in Corsi For % but sixth worst in PDO (.987), largely thanks to a 6.85% shooting percentage, third worst in the league. Their save percentage was tenth worst at 91.86%. The save percentage might not improve dramatically but it would be expected that the team would shoot almost one percent better. If had this season, they would have scored 21 additional goals, which likely would have landed them in the playoffs. Many of the team’s star players performed at the level expected. Just because I am not highlighting them here, it does not mean they had bad seasons. Instead, I want to use this space to highlight some players that performed above what may have been expected from them.

Matthew Tkachuk is the next Brad Marchand. He is a really good hockey player whose play is overshadowed by his stupid on-ice antics. Tkachuk led the team forwards in possession metrics during 5v5 play, having a very impressive Corsi For % of 57.29% and a 5.46% Corsi For Relative, meaning the Flames took 5.46% more shots toward goal when Tkachuk was on the ice versus when he was off. In addition to his impressive possession numbers, Tkachuk also finished fourth among regular forwards in points per 60 minutes. He is also still only 20 years old. He has one more year on his entry level contract, meaning he could sign a contract extension this offseason but will be making under $1M next season (unless he hits performance bonuses in his contract). That is an absolute steal for a player with this level of production. Who knows if he could be even better if he focuses all of his energy on the ice toward producing instead of taking cheap shots at opponents.

The next player I would like to draw attention to is Garnet Hathaway. I am surprised he has not been getting more love in the hockey analytics’ community. He has the numbers to be a player that many might argue is better than his on-ice production shows. I’m not going to go as far as saying that Hathaway is ever going to be a first line bona fide superstar but he is the type of player that should be incredibly valuable to teams in the current NHL. He never had consistent line mates but still managed to put up respectable numbers. He finished with a positive Corsi For % of 53.53% and had a near even Corsi For Relative % at 5v5 play. He also scored above 1.18 points per 60.

In today’s NHL where having the ability to roll four quality lines is becoming increasingly important, I think Hathaway becomes a really valuable player. Why do I like his numbers so much? The answer is when he is on the ice, the team does not see a major drop in play. Let’s draw a comparison to the Edmonton Oilers with Connor McDavid. When McDavid is one the ice, the team is fantastic. The problem is McDavid obviously can only play so much of the game. When McDavid is off the ice, the team got caved in. Hathaway’s numbers suggest he could play on a line away from a star player and ensure the team does not get hemmed in their own zone when their star players are off the ice. He may even contribute to driving continuous strong offensive zone play. This is why I like Hathaway.

Major Disappointments

I have to start with Jaromir Jagr. His legendary career was bound to come to an end at some point but it is unfortunate that it had to come midseason (unless he makes another comeback). Any hockey fan has to be sad to presumably see his NHL career end. I’m not going to say that signing a play of his age in a league that is going to speed would be the smartest decision but Jagr was not bad in his limited action this season. He had a positive Corsi For % and Corsi For Relative % during 5v5 play. With teams always trying to look to add veterans, “who are good in the locker room,” I think teams choose options much worse than Jagr but at some point the end has to come and this season may have been it.

I have a word that I think is effective in relaying a player’s ability and that word is “fine.” That would be how I would describe Sam Bennett. He has become a very average player, which would be acceptable if he were a midround draft pick. You might even live with it if he were drafted late in the first round. The problem for the Flames is he was a fourth overall selection. Those are the players you expect to be impact players for many years.

Granted his draft class is less than stellar and at the time he was considered one of the top prospects, it has to sting when you look at some of the players picked a few picks after him. How happy would Flames’ fans be if they had William Nylander, Nikolaj Ehlers, or maybe David Pastrnak? I’m guessing much more so than they are with Bennett. Hindsight is always 20/20 and Bennett appeared to be the right pick at the time but the team certainly needed to do something different to ensure a better outcome. The problem could have be/still be with how they developed and used Bennett. Would it have made a difference? We will never know. What we do know is it is probably safe to say Bennett will never live up to his lofty draft status. Maybe that is unfair to him, but that is the reality.

Another prospect (former prospect?) to discuss is Mark Jankowski. Again, I will use the word fine to describe him. He was a player Flames’ fans have been waiting to emerge after he was drafted 21^st overall while still in high school. As I said earlier, fine might be found for a player picked later in the first round. The problem is his underlying numbers aren’t overly promising either. Though he did finish with a 51.17% Corsi For % during 5v5 play, that really wasn’t good on a team as strong as the Flames as evidenced by his -3.59% Relative Corsi For %. However, in his first full NHL season, it is probably still a little early to completely write him off but the Flames and their fans will certainly want to see him take a step forward next year.

Probably the biggest disappointment for Flames’ fans has to be the injury to Mike Smith and subsequent struggle in goal. Smith was good for the Flames saving close to seven goals above average. The rest of the goalies that filled in combined to give up approximately 12.5 goals below average. Those numbers are at 5v5 play, though the difference is even more dramatic in all situations. The Flames probably should have given Jon Gillies more of a chance to steady the ship as he performed above average in all situations but below average at 5v5. That is likely the reason the coaches chose to not use him exclusively during Smith’s injury.

Offseason Plans

The Flames enter the offseason with a little under $12.5M in cap space, needing to fill out the bottom portion of their roster, which can be done by staying internal. My recommendation would be to do just that. I think the team should take one more shot at a playoff run with their current core. With most of their top prospects having at least two years of cost control, they can afford to let them develop another year while supplementing their roster with those players when needed instead of relying on them to carry the team.

The team should be able to retain their arbitration eligible players, forwards Nick Shore, Hathaway, Jankowski, and defenseman Brett Kulak for at most $6M to $7M, which would leave them cap space to add a quality player if desired. If the team follows this recommendation, I would not look to add until the season begins and then potentially explore the trade market. The benefit to this strategy is it gives the team time to figure out what they really have. If they are competing, the team will have draft picks and prospects they could potentially move. If the team struggles, they can hang onto their prospects and likely move some of their players. The Flames will go into next season with few players on expiring contracts but will have plenty with a year or two left that would likely be attractive for contenders. I think making a panic trade for the sake of doing so this offseason would be a mistake but the rumors will of course swirl.

One of the rumors swirling is regarding Dougie Hamilton. He is a player who definitely has to have some value around the league. He probably could fetch a nice return. I’m not sure it would make sense from Buffalo’s perspective but a trade revolving around Hamilton for Ryan O’Reilly may be something that will be talked about. As I wrote in my Sabres’ review, the likely addition of Rasmus Dahlin dramatically changes where Buffalo needs help. As such, I’m not sure that swap makes sense now. Had Buffalo not won the lottery, that trade would make loads of sense.

The only player I might seriously look to move is Sam Bennett and that is because he likely could benefit from a change of scenery. I’m sure the team will be selling for cents on the dollar but maybe there is another team who has a similarly struggling player. I wonder if Bennett plus maybe Kulak could land Galchenyuk. Sure, it might take a little more but this could be a good starting point. Who knows what Montreal would take but it likely will be worse than they probably should get.

In summary, I think a quiet offseason in Calgary would be wise. They need to make a decision on their backup goaltender and maybe should once again dip in the free agent market. However, it might be time to see what Jon Gillies can contribute. The team is starting to reach a point when they need to know what he can do for them and bouncing between the NHL and AHL splitting time in both places.

Please be sure to check in again tomorrow as we take an in-depth look at the Dallas Stars. If you enjoyed this review, please follow us on Twitter, @afpanalytics, and share it with your friends!

Stats have been pulled from NaturalStatTrick.com and Corsica.hockey. Salary info from Capfriendly.com.

KYLE STICH is the Director of AFP Analytics.  In addition, Mr. Stich is a tax specialist and Director of Operations at AFP Consulting LLC, whose clientele include professional athletes performing services on three separate continents. Mr. Stich earned his Master of Science in Sport Management with a Concentration in Sport Analytics from Columbia University in 2017. He earned his undergraduate degrees in Accounting and Sport Management from St. John Fisher College in 2015, where he has served as an adjunct professor teaching Sport Finance and Baseball Analytics.

For the next 31 days, AFP Analytics is going to take a critical look back at how the season played out for all 31 NHL teams, starting with the last place team (Buffalo Sabres) and ending with the Stanley Cup Champions. In addition to a season recap, we will look at some major decisions the team will be facing this offseason.

New York Islanders

Next up in our 31 in 31 season review is a look at the New York Islanders, who face a franchise defining offseason. The Islanders started off the season incredibly well but limped to the finish line. Season long struggles on the blueline and in net were offset early in the season by a high-powered offense. As the season wore on, the backend struggles continued and the offense also slowed down. With superstar John Tavares an unrestricted free agent this offseason, top goal scorer Andres Lee unrestricted and super rookie, Mathew Barzal, a restricted free agent next offseason, the Islanders have some major decisions to make.

Season Bright Spots

The Islanders seem to have found a keeper in Mathew Barzal, who they traded Griffin Reinhart, a player who appears to never be a full-time NHL player, for the right to select him 16^th overall in 2015. What a steal that trade appears to be for the Islanders. Barzal seems to be a lock for the Calder Trophy (given to the NHL’s top rookie player). Barzal led the Islanders in 5v5 scoring, scoring at a rate of 2.88 points per 60, which amounts to 54 total points. Not only did Barzal lead the team in scoring, he also was one of the team’s best possession players. During 5v5 play, Barzal had a Corsi For % of 52.33%, second to Jordan Eberle. The Islanders also were 6.83% better in possession when Barzal was on the ice, good for second place behind Eberle. This certainly seems like a good time for the Islanders to have a young, top center to emerge given the uncertainty surrounding John Tavares. The best news is the Islanders still have Barzal cost controlled for two more seasons, though they certainly must be aware of the likely big contract he will command.

The next player that must be highlighted is Andres Lee, who has quietly become one of the top goal scorers in the league. He scored 23 at 5v5 and another 17 on the power play, giving him 40 goals for the season. Lee showed that last season’s 34 goals were not a fluke as he has quickly become one of the league’s premier net-front players and a prototypical power forward. His underlying numbers though are a little concerning. The biggest question surrounding Lee is whether his success comes from playing with superstar John Tavares. The answer is quite possibly. Lee’s possession numbers away from Tavares are 4% worse than when he played with Tavares. He also finished the season below 50% in Corsi For %, though he was well above that for approximately two-thirds of the season. However, you don’t score 40 goals by accident. It will be interesting to monitor Lee’s production if Tavares leaves the team this offseason. Though probably not quite on the level of Tavares, the Islanders likely don’t want to go through the questions of will he stay or will he go for two seasons in a row. The addition of Lou Lamoriello and the other major holes on the roster may leave Lee in flux this offseason.

I don’t completely want to continue to gloss over John Tavares because he was really good once again for the Islanders. I am not going to spend much space on him because he performed at the level that would be expected out of a player his caliber. There of course will be plenty of space dedicated to him in the offseason plan as well.

The other two players I want to highlight here are Jordan Eberle and Josh Bailey, both players who produced at a level that may have been higher than anticipated. Islanders fans must be thrilled with the Ryan Strome for Jordan Eberle trade. Eberle was awesome this season while Strome struggled once again. It appears a theme in this bright spots section is starting to emerge. Two of the players who were great for the Islanders came to the team as results of trades with the Edmonton Oilers. If Garth Snow had exclusively made trades with the Oilers, maybe Lamoriello wouldn’t have been brought in. Anyways, I digress.

If you have read everything I have previously written, you should already be aware that Eberle was the Islanders’ best possession forward. The reason for Islander fans to be most excited about Eberle is that it is unlikely his strong possession play this season was a fluke. For most of his career with the lowly Oilers, Eberle was a positive possession player during 5v5 play. That success continued with his move to Brooklyn. The other reason for optimism is that Eberle played as well away from Mathew Barzal as he did with him. Eberle played the most 5v5 minutes with Barzal. Like Anders Lee, Eberle is also due to be an unrestricted free agent next summer and is likely looking at a contract with a cap hit of at least $6M again.

Josh Bailey is the final player that I would like to highlight here. Bailey ran on the wing with Tavares and Lee and may have benefited. Bailey’s Corsi For % was 5% worse when he was away from John Tavares versus when he played with him. However, he did demonstrate some play-making skill as he finished third among regular players with .74 primary assists per 60. The Islanders were also able to sign him to keep him at a reasonable $5M cap hit but he will be on the books for six years. If they could have shaved a year or two off at that price, the deal would look good for the team. Though there certainly must be concern if Tavares leaves the team and Bailey struggles to find chemistry with a different center.

Major Disappointments

This section is very easy to determine who belongs. I don’t know how much time to spend beating a dead horse here. The Islanders’ struggles were directly the result of poor defensive play and poor goaltending. The goaltending may not have been quite as bad as many have made it out to be. Rather, their struggles are more likely the shot quantity and quality the goaltenders based.

Jaro Halak played 54 games in net and saved 6.53 goals above average, good for 16^th out of 51 goalies who played at least 1000 minutes. The major problem is when Halak did not play. Thomas Griess mightily struggled giving up nearly eight more goals below average. Couple that with Chris Gibson’s two goals below average and the Islanders’ backup goaltenders saved 10 goals less than would be expected of an average goal. For those unfamiliar with the goals saved above/below average stat, it is basically looking at how many goals were saved or given up by a goalie compared to what an average goalie would do. The reality is though the team was, statistically getting above average goaltending in approximately 60% of their games. To me, this signals more of a problem with the defense and the numbers back up that claim.

I can’t wrap my head around why the Islanders thought they needed to protect five defensemen and make a trade with Vegas to steer them to take free agent goalie JF Berube. The Islanders probably had the worst defense in the entire league this year and felt the need to protect five of them and one of those was not Calvin de Haan who looks to be the most competent, as he led all defensemen in Corsi For % (though still under 50%) and gave up the second least high danger scoring chances.

The reason I think the Islanders biggest problem was their defense is the fact the team gave up the highest danger shots in the entire league. When I say shots here, I am referring to every shot toward goal, which includes misses and blocks. Constantly allowing the puck to work its way into high danger areas, in my opinion, signals a major problem with their defensive talent. This also puts added pressure on your goalies and likely is the reason the goalies’ advanced statistics are not as bad as would be expected.

Offseason Plans

The additional of Lou Lamoriello may significantly change the Islanders’ approach to this offseason. As an outside observer, it seems Garth Snow’s biggest problem is he overvalued players in the organization. He has overpaid many of the players he has re-signed and felt the need to give up a first round draft pick to protect a handful of marginal players. With Lamoriello calling the shots, he has no loyalty to any of the players so he likely will have no problem making sweeping changes to the roster, which is needed for the team.

Lamoriello’s top priority must be John Tavares. In today’s NHL, you can’t let superstar players leave your franchise. If you have read everything previously written, you will also see how important Tavares was to the success of Lee and Bailey. The going rate for Tavares is likely going to fall between the $10.5M of Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews and Connor McDavid’s $12.5M. Putting that contract on the books with Andres Lee and Mathew Barzal due for extensions that will likely carry high cap hits as well in subsequent, the Islanders will need to make some tough decisions. It would be better if they must make them versus Tavares making it for them by leaving.

The team has $28M in cap space, needing to sign four forwards, two defensemen, and a goalie. That space will of course be quickly eaten into if they are successful in bringing back Tavares. I think many of those other roster spots should be filled internally. One of the players that would be obvious for internal promotion is Josh Ho-Sang. He has developed a reputation as being a player that has all the skill in the world but may never make it in the NHL because of the way he approaches the game. His possession numbers are decent though not great. The Islanders have shot themselves in the foot when it comes to his value. His constant bouncing between the AHL and NHL has to give other teams an uneasy feeling. Lamoriello cannot let that continue. If he wants to move on from Ho-Sang, he needs to do it this offseason. He could probably be included in a package deal with another player and yield a decent return.

The Islanders have highly touted forward prospect Kieffer Bellows who seems poised to make the jump to the NHL. Bellows is a player that should slot immediately into the team’s top six and would probably be a perfect fit riding shotgun with Mathew Barzal. Bellows is a dynamic goal scorer who needs a play-making center to set him up. Barzal perfectly fits the bill. If the team brings back Tavares and follows my suggestion on Barzal, their top six would be the following: Lee-Tavares-Bailey, Eberle-Barzal-Bellows. That would leave Andrew Ladd to play third line minutes with Anthony Beauvillier and maybe Michael Dal Colle baring any trades. That forward group looks very impressive on paper.

As earlier discussed, the biggest issue the team has is addressing the backend. They first need to shore up their net. To put things frankly, Halak is probably the best option among goalies who are currently slated to become unrestricted free agents and I don’t see him being an option to bring back. I think there are three other goalies to watch here, Robin Lehner, Petr Mrazek, and Phillip Grubauer. In his offseason game plan piece, Scott Cullen of TSN though Robin Lehner might be the fit for the Islanders. I think that makes a lot of sense but I think Islanders’ fans will likely become frustrated with Lehner very quickly, given his wild inconsistency. I think the Islanders should do all they can to pry Grubauer out of Washington (or Holtby if the team feels Grubauer is the long-term answer). Either of those options will likely solve the Islanders’ problems in goal for years to come.

The biggest weakness Lamoriello should address is the defense. Unfortunately for him, his hands are pretty tied when it comes to Nick Leddy and Johnny Boychuk, who are both players the team should be looking to move on from, especially as they age. There might be a small market for Leddy (maybe the Blackhawks would like to reacquire him like they have other former players), but I can’t see any team interested in adding a 34-year-old defenseman getting paid $6M per year for the next four years. Moving him likely would require the team to eat some salary and/or include some quality assets for another team to take on that contract.

The Islanders could spin the wheels and retain most of their own defensemen and promote from within. However, outside of maybe Sebastian Aho and Ryan Pulock there aren’t any defensemen worth getting excited about. The same is mostly true for free agent defensemen. There is John Carlson and potentially Mike Green, but both of those players are going to demand too much money to potentially fit in with Tavares. If Tavares leaves, the team could look to use that money on one of those high-priced defensemen, but I don’t think that would be a wise decision, unless it is for a short term.

I think the best way the team could improve their blueline is by swapping one of their talented forwards for a defenseman. No move could be made without Tavares signing on the dotted line, but a trade of Andres Lee or Jordan Eberle could be in the cards this offseason for the Islanders. They have the forward depth to move one of those two players and could add even more depth if Ilya Kovalchuk follows Lamoriello to Brooklyn.

I am just spit-balling here but I wonder if a trade with Anaheim, Buffalo, Carolina, Calgary, Nashville, or St. Louis where the Islanders acquire a defenseman in exchange for one of Eberle or Lee. Anaheim or Calgary would seem like the most logical partners. I don’t know if Buffalo is quite a fit but as we discussed in our review of them (https://afpanalytics.com/2018/05/17/nhl-31-in-31-season-review-buffalo-sabres/) Rasmus Ristolainen and/or Jake McCabe are very logically to be moved and the team needs another top winger. Calgary is rumored to be looking to be fielding offers on Hamilton and a swap of him for Eberle, could be a good “hockey trade” for both teams. Our Calgary review will be posted in two days and in it we discuss why the Flames would be smart to have a quiet offseason. I don’t think a move like that qualifies as quiet. The same goes for Nashville. I think a trade that makes the most sense is one that brings Colton Paryako to Brooklyn for Jordan Eberle, assuming Eberle agrees to an extension before the trade is made. On the surface, Andres Lee in Anaheim seems like a match made in heaven but I don’t think the team has the cap space to keep him around long-term. Carolina could also be a great fit but I don’t think the two teams would trade within the division.

This offseason is going to define the New York Islanders as they prepare to move into their new arena. I think it was wise to bring in a fresh voice to reshape this roster, though I’m not entirely sure Lamoriello is the best man for the job. This offseason becomes a whole lot easier if the team can get Tavares locked up early but that probably won’t happen. The team will have to go into the offseason with two completely different plans, neither of which will be able to be executed until after Tavares has signed a contract. Regardless of if he stays or goes, the Islanders need Tavares to make a quick decision. I think he will at least respect that for the team.

Please be sure to check in again tomorrow as we take an in-depth look at the Carolina Hurricanes. If you enjoyed this review, please follow us on Twitter, @afpanalytics, and share it with your friends!

Stats have been pulled from NaturalStatTrick.com and Corsica.hockey. Salary info from Capfriendly.com.

KYLE STICH is the Director of AFP Analytics.  In addition, Mr. Stich is a tax specialist and Director of Operations at AFP Consulting LLC, whose clientele include professional athletes performing services on three separate continents. Mr. Stich earned his Master of Science in Sport Management with a Concentration in Sport Analytics from Columbia University in 2017. He earned his undergraduate degrees in Accounting and Sport Management from St. John Fisher College in 2015, where he has served as an adjunct professor teaching Sport Finance and Baseball Analytics.

For the next 31 days, AFP Analytics is going to take a critical look back at how the season played out for all 31 NHL teams, starting with the last place team (Buffalo Sabres) and ending with the Stanley Cup Champions. In addition to a season recap, we will look at some major decisions the team will be facing this offseason.

New York Rangers

Next up in our 31 in 31 season review is a look at the New York Rangers, who acknowledged they are going to look to rebuild and began doing so by trading captain Ryan McDonagh and Rick Nash at the trade deadline, along with the buyout of Dan Girardi last summer. I think this is a smart move for the organization but this offseason will be critical to set the tone for how they are going to approach the rebuild.

Season Bright Spots

The biggest bright spot has to be the team has acknowledged they have a flawed core and are looking to rebuild. I have a philosophy when it comes to team building and up until now, I think the Rangers have previously came up short in adhering to it. I think once teams come as close to a Stanley Cup as they possibly can but still fall short, they need to adjust their core. After coming up just short in the 2013-2014 season, it should have been apparent a team with the same core likely wasn’t going to get it done. The Rangers kept largely the same core, came up shorter, then still kept a very similar core, and really repeated that until now. Had they acknowledged their flaw earlier, the return they received for many players could have been even greater. Now that they have realized their need to rebuild, I am going to count that as a positive.

The Rangers appear to have some promising young defensemen in their organization. I like Brady Skjei a lot. This year he played all 82 games, while posting a positive relative Corsi For Percentage. The only two defensemen to perform better in relative Corsi For Percentage, were also young players; those two players were Tony DeAngelo and John Gilmour. It looks like the Rangers have three promising young blueliners who could start regularly contributing as early as next season. Neal Pionk also made some noise for his point streak at the end of the season but his possession numbers are much less promising.

I’m honestly struggling to find other bright spots. Ranger fans have to be happy with Mika Zibinijad. He was the team’s best forward when looking at possession numbers and is on a very team friendly contract, with a cap hit of just $5.35M for the next four years. If he were on the open market, he would easily have a cap hit of at least $7M, maybe even above $8M. Having that type of cap savings, provides the Rangers with some flexibility going forward or maybe makes eating Dan Girardi’s contract more palpable.

Major Disappointments

To put things frankly, the Rangers were lucky (or unlucky depending on how you feel about racing to the bottom) to finish as high as they did. The Rangers were the worst possession team at 5v5 by more than a full percentage point. They were propped up by a PDO of nearly 1, having a league average shooting percentage and league average goaltending at 5v5. If you want to look at their underlying numbers in an optimistic way, you can be comforted by the fact that they were not propelled by luck. In reality, nearly everyone on the team could be discussed here.

When I’m looking at the numbers for the Rangers’ forwards, I am left to wonder if their forward group is one of the weakest in the league. They at best have five forwards, Zibanejad, Kreider, Buchnevich, Namestnikov, and Zuccarello, who I look as borderline first-line, quality second-line players. I don’t think Buchnevich has lived up to the hype that accompanied him as he was coming into the league.

Kevin Shattenkirk’s play also had to disappoint Ranger fans this season. After being the big fish in free agency, he missed half of the season and was basically an average player in the games he played. He did manage to finish with a positive relative Corsi For Percentage (.47%), though barely, and it was propelled by good shot suppression. For a defenseman who is thought of as someone who drives offense, that is certainly not an encouraging sign.

Offseason Plans

The Rangers are going to be one of the most fun teams to watch this offseason. They have three first-round picks, two of which will be late in the round though. They also are currently projected to have $24.5M in cap space and they need top end talent. I don’t think handing out big money deals with term would be a smart approach. The team is likely one of the favorites to land Ilya Kovalchuk, who might instantly become the team’s best forward. The wise move would be to only give him a year or two length, even if it would require the team to pay a little more. The front office has done a great job clearing undesirable long-term contracts off the books and can’t afford to just spin the wheels.

The other name who is going to be connected to the Rangers is John Tavares. Like Kovalchuk, he would certainly add the top end talent the team needs, but signing Tavares would likely eat up half of their cap space for next season. Potentially pair that with Kovalchuk and the team is likely left with $6M to $8M in cap space. Even though they need top talent, they can’t completely sacrifice their depth either, unless they are comfortable enough with some of their young, cost-controlled players filling those roles.

I think if the Rangers approach this offseason correctly, meaning they don’t throw tons of money around in free agency, they can really set themselves up to be a future powerhouse. They need to look at the broader picture when it comes to how they approach this offseason. They play in a division with Columbus, Pittsburgh, and Washington, teams who are in a win-now window, and New Jersey, Philadelphia, and Carolina, who are teams on the rise. The Rangers would be wise to wait for one or two of the win-now teams’ windows to close before they look to be aggressive.

This means a couple things. First, they should definitely not trade any of their first-round picks for veteran players. Next, do the Rangers have a conversation with Lundqvist about potentially moving on? It might behoove both parties to seriously consider this. I also think the Rangers should just keep Marc Staal and Brendan Smith on the roster (or buried in the minors) unless they can find a willing party to make a trade with. Any trade should not involve the Rangers giving up assets to move the salaries, retaining salary cap would be fine on one of them though.

One avenue that I would look to explore is to package some of their first-round picks to get higher in the draft to get top end talent. I’ve written it many times already that it takes two to tango and I don’t see many teams at the top moving down, as they too have needs for top talent. The Oilers could be the exception here, as they could really benefit from adding more depth, even if those players aren’t quite as talented. Or the Oilers could look to acquire two first-rounders to trade for players they think will make an immediate impact.

I think the Rangers are set up much better for the future than a lot of the other teams that finished around them or below in the standings. They need to stay the course though and not get blinded by the glitzy names in free agency. That is going to be tough for a team playing just blocks away from Broadway. The majority of the signings the Rangers should focus on is their restricted players. They also could probably benefit from adding another goaltender who can be relied on. I don’t really think Lundqvist will be moved but having someone else that can provide him with more rest through the season has to be a top priority. I doubt Washington would move Grubauer inside the division, but he would be my ideal target were I in charge of the Rangers.

The Rangers have a chance to make this summer really fun and interesting for their fans, but I think a quiet offseason is what should make fans excited.

Please be sure to check in again tomorrow as we take an in-depth look at the Edmonton Oilers. If you enjoyed this review, please follow us on Twitter, @afpanalytics, and share it with your friends!

Stats have been pulled from NaturalStatTrick.com and Corsica.hockey. Salary info from Capfriendly.com.

KYLE STICH is the Director of AFP Analytics.  In addition, Mr. Stich is a tax specialist and Director of Operations at AFP Consulting LLC, whose clientele include professional athletes performing services on three separate continents. Mr. Stich earned his Master of Science in Sport Management with a Concentration in Sport Analytics from Columbia University in 2017. He earned his undergraduate degrees in Accounting and Sport Management from St. John Fisher College in 2015, where he has served as an adjunct professor teaching Sport Finance and Baseball Analytics.

For the next 31 days, AFP Analytics is going to take a critical look back at how the season played out for all 31 NHL teams, starting with the last place team (Buffalo Sabres) and ending with the Stanley Cup Champions. In addition to a season recap, we will look at some major decisions the team will be facing this offseason.

Chicago Blackhawks 

Next up in our 31 in 31 season review is a look at the Chicago Blackhawks, who went from dynasty to bottom of the standings in a very quick time frame. The Blackhawks are an interesting team to look at as their possession numbers say they are still an elite team. Was much of their struggles due to the poor goaltending they received after Corey Crawford was injured (excluding Scott Foster of course). However, the team is saddled with many aging players on long-term, large money contract that will make it hard for the team to really change much up.

Season Bright Spots

I want to start with Alex Debrincat, a player who many people questioned whether or not could be a NHL player. Although I can’t point to anything with a timestamp to back up my claim, I was not one of those people. I find it impossible to believe that someone who dominated a level development league, playing against many players who many observers think will be future NHL players. To me, it seems likely that a player who dominates at the level against his present and likely future opponents, that player will likely be successful. Anyways, I digress and will move on to Debrincat’s performance this season.

Debrincat scored 18 goals at even strength, 28 overall while having a 53.7% Corsi For Percentage. That stat line would be really good for any player, let alone “an undersized” rookie, jumping directly from juniors. If you want to be someone who wants to look for reasons to not like Debrincat, you can point to the fact that he spent the most time with Jonathan Toews as his center, to that I would say, there is a reason the coaching staff put him there: It’s probably because he’s good.

The next major bright spot to look at is Scott Foster, the accountant, emergency goaltender, who somehow had enough free time during tax season to post a third period shutout against one of the league’s best teams. In a season filled with disappointment, especially in the crease, Scott Foster’s overnight fame and success was a great story.

The brightest spot for Chicago this season might have been the trade of Ryan Hartman for Nashville’s first-round pick. Even though the pick will be at the backend of the first round, the Blackhawks desperately need to add top end, cost-controlled, young talent to supplement their aging stars.

Major Disappointments

I think the obvious place to start is the injury to Corey Crawford, who is probably more appreciated than ever before. The Blackhawks were off to another strong start before Crawford was shut down in December with a concussion, playing in only 28 games. Everyone who replaced him (except Scott Foster), struggled mightily. I think the biggest concern for Blackhawk fans is that it seems like Crawford has really struggled with the effects (and maybe after effects) of his concussion. If he struggles to bounce back next season, the team could be in big trouble.

Do I need to talk about Brett Seabrook? I think I will touch quickly on him. I was surprised to look at the Blackhawks’ salary situation and find out that Seabrook, not Keith or Crawford is the highest paid Blackhawk behind Toews and Patrick Kane. Oh, he also has six more years remaining on his contract with a full no-move clause. The contract takes him until he is 39 years old. As I am sure Blackhawk fans know, Seabrook’s play was, umm, less than stellar. I’ll just leave it at that and spew a few clichés. No need to rub salt in the wound. No need to beat a dead horse.

I don’t know what else to really touch on here. The Blackhawks’ possession numbers were overall good. Their PDO, a stat that adds Shooting % and Save%, and should regress toward 100, was the seventh worst in the league. With a little more “puck luck,” they might have a significant improvement in the standings next year. The biggest hurdle for the Blackhawks next season may be the fact that they are in a division with this year’s two best teams and four other very talented teams.

Offseason Plans

I don’t know what Chicago can really do this offseason? Pray to the injuries Gods that Crawford and maybe Hossa can return at full strength? The Blackhawks enter the offseason with just under $7.5M in cap space that could deplete even further with any overage bonuses they have to pay out. They are going to have to add at least five forwards within that cap space. Duclair, Jurco, and Hinostroza could be relatively cost controlled as they are restricted free agents. Those players will probably account for a cap hit of around $4M, leaving the team with $3.5M to fill their remaining two spots, one of which is Patrick Sharp, who has found his stride in broadcasting and looks to be done playing hockey.

The Blackhawks are going to have to look to fill out their roster with younger talent. Anthony Louis was the leading scorer for the team’s AHL affiliate, the Rockford IceHogs. It would be logical to think he could get a long look, especially considering the Blackhawks had success with Debrincat, another undersized forward. Though Louis’s 48 points in 70 games isn’t quite the level of production I would want to translate to a sure thing at the next level. He probably projects as more of a bottom six player. Matthew Highmore was the IceHogs’ leading goal scorer, netting 24 goals in 64 games and could be another player to get a look if the team is looking for a player with a scoring touch.

However, I think the Blackhawks’ best plan of action is to see if they can land an impact forward high in the draft that can come in and contribute immediately. They also have to be going hard after any college free agent forwards, who they think can come in and play right away. They could also look to bring one of their European forward prospects into the fold as well. Please note that I am assuming Dylan Sikura will be one of the players to definitely make the team.

The conclusion to come to here is the Blackhawks really need to clear some money. It seems like Artem Anisimov would be the most logical player to be moved to clear some cap space, though that doesn’t necessarily help with their forward depth problem. His salary is and production would be attractive but his No-Move Clause may act as a hindrance. Brandon Saad is another player I could see teams being interested in but it seems highly unlikely he will be traded after trading away Artemi Panarin to reacquire him.

Obviously, the best way to clear cap space would be to move one of their $10.5M men, Patrick Kane or Jonathan Toews, or one of their aging defensemen, Brent Seabrook or Duncan Keith. I think it would be near impossible to move any of those players for a litany of reasons. Though making hockey decisions based on how your fans would react is not the best way to do business, I don’t see how you can sell moving Toews or Kane to your fans. The next problem is it takes two to tango. I think there would be plenty of interest in Toews or Kane, but the massive cap hit would certainly be a major issue. Though I wonder if we hear any rumblings of a Toews to Montreal trade. Moving one of Seabrook or Keith probably means adding assets to move the contract off your books. I’m not sure if Chicago is really in a position to do that again, as that is really what has gotten them into this mess to begin with.

I think a quiet offseason in Chicago might be the best course of action. There might be another season of below-average performance but keeping as much future cap space clear while also building their prospect pool. The team’s underlying numbers suggest a turnaround next season is more likely than not.

Please be sure to check in again tomorrow as we take an in-depth look at the New York Rangers. If you enjoyed this review, please follow us on Twitter, @afpanalytics, and share it with your friends!

Stats have been pulled from NaturalStatTrick.com and Corsica.hockey. Salary info from Capfriendly.com.

KYLE STICH is the Director of AFP Analytics.  In addition, Mr. Stich is a tax specialist and Director of Operations at AFP Consulting LLC, whose clientele include professional athletes performing services on three separate continents. Mr. Stich earned his Master of Science in Sport Management with a Concentration in Sport Analytics from Columbia University in 2017. He earned his undergraduate degrees in Accounting and Sport Management from St. John Fisher College in 2015, where he has served as an adjunct professor teaching Sport Finance and Baseball Analytics.