Potential NHL Trade Proposals: Pacific Division

Pacific Division

With the trade deadline less than a month away and many teams having an idea of where they stand this season, now is a great time to start looking at some trades that would make a lot of sense. It has been a trend in the NHL to start making trades earlier and some dominoes have already fell. An arms’ race is shaping up among the top teams in the West and some unexpected teams have found themselves still hanging around the playoff race. What is maybe the most interesting so far this season is there are multiple teams who are loaded with young talent and playing better than expected and multiple teams who have talented veterans that are likely to be sellers. 

In this article series, I have chosen five teams from each division who I believe could look to make a trade to solidify their roster for this season and maybe beyond. I started with the Atlantic division, predicting the Jake Muzzin trade back in December, and have worked my way through the league. None of these trades have been pulled from thin air. I have looked at where the teams are weakest in their “advanced metrics.” I then filtered players by specified criteria and looked at whether they would make sense for a given team. I will attempt to put a price on some targets but may not be entirely accurate. I will also add this disclaimer: I am much more familiar with some teams’ farm systems than others so please forgive me if I am vaguer with some teams than others. For previous articles, stats were gathered on December 12^th, 2018. Since I have not had time until now to complete this series, I have recollected the statistics for this article. 

The Pacific Division is interesting. The San Jose Sharks, Calgary Flames, and Vegas Golden Knights should be very active at the deadline. The Vancouver Canucks find themselves much closer to the playoffs than many anticipated, but they have done a nice job of accumulating future assets that they shouldn’t be looking to trade away. Even though the Canucks are in a position to potentially add, I will not predict any trades for them because I think their smartest move would be to stay the course. The Anaheim Ducks and Edmonton Oilers probably want to buy but maybe should be looking at making “hockey trades” or sell. I have previously written about many players I think the Los Angeles Kings should move and since I only focus on the buyers here, they will not be included. Finally, the Arizona Coyotes are looking like they will miss out on the playoffs but I think they will be pretty quiet come deadline day.

Calgary Flames

Potential Need: Depth Upgrade

I’ve been high on the Flames all season as I predicted in August that they would be the top team in the Pacific. They are probably one of the most complete teams in the league as they rank in the top ten everywhere that I deem important. They are tremendous during 5v5 play, have the best power play, in terms of expected goals, have a strong penalty kill, in terms of expected goals against, and their goaltending hasn’t been a major issue as a whole. This puts the team in a perfect position to look for marginal upgrades on their roster. Anyone they potentially add also would keep them away from the other top teams in the West.

Potential Targets:

If you have read the other three installments in this series, you should already be familiar with many of the players that I think would be quality depth upgrades. You will also be familiar with my policy of not predicting a player to go to more than one team. Many of the players I have previously predicted in trades would be tremendous fits with any of the top contenders. However, I have already predicted the likes of Kevin Hayes, Chris Krieder, Gustav Nyquist and Mark Stone to be moved to other teams. I think any of them would be a nice addition for Calgary as well (if they can make the salary work). For Calgary, I looked for a player who improves their team’s possession and expected goals ratio while they are on the ice. The players above all fit these criteria. 

However, there are some other players that I have minimally touched on or have not mentioned at all. I think the top player on the list here is Mats Zuccarello. I think he would be a tremendous depth add for Calgary and the Flames could fit him his salary cap hit without moving any cap hit out. The Rangers should look to take advantage of what appears is starting to shape into a seller’s market and load up on future assets to continue to build a quality young core. In my piece on the Central Division I floated the names of Blake Coleman and Miles Wood. I will maintain that I’m not sure the Devils will be overly eager to move either of those players and the price could be a little steep. Like Zuccarello, I think Coleman would be a great for Calgary.

The Buffalo Sabres have had a disastrous last two months and have went from being in a clear buy position to a borderline sell position. They are a team probably looking more to make a hockey trade instead of just shipping players out for futures but they have a couple players who are having sneaky decent seasons that could be quality depth additions for a playoff team. The first player is Jason Pomenville, who has not yet been asked for a no-trade list, but still could. The other is Conor Sheary, who I doubt the team is actively looking to move but also probably wouldn’t hang up a call asking about him. Despite the Sabres’ struggles, both players have improved the team when they have been on the ice in both shot control and expected goals.

Predicted Trade: Calgary acquires Mats Zuccarello in exchange for a 2019 first-round pick and a mid to low level prospect.

San Jose Sharks

Potential Need: Better goaltending or depth upgrade

The Sharks have some tough decisions to make between now and the trade deadline. If they’re being completely honest with themselves, they should look for an upgrade in net. Their backup, Aaron Dell has been a perfectly fine backup, saving basically the amount of goals expected. Their biggest problem is Martin Jones, who is under contract for the next five seasons for $5.750,000. Jones’ incredibly poor play this season, allowing 16.5 goals more than expected, which is second worse in the league to Devon Dubnyk. The Sharks’ greatest hurdle in the playoffs is likely going to be their goaltending. The question is are they going to do anything about it? I don’t really see how it’s possible so I think the team will look to make a depth move instead. They don’t really need to but any marginal upgrades or insurance in case of injury might be a wise move. If they don’t address their goaltending, they should make sure they have no other roadblocks, including injuries.

Potential Targets:

The Sharks have been and should continue to be all-in. Their biggest challenge at the deadline will be meeting the price for a high-profile target. They don’t own a first-round pick the next two years and probably can’t trade their 2021 first-round pick as there are conditions attached to it from the Erik Karlsson trade. They do own Florida’s 2019 second-round pick and their own in 2020. Further, outside of Ryan Merkley, the team doesn’t have any prospects that are likely going to spark major interest. I wouldn’t move Merkley is I was the Sharks and I don’t think they will either. Even though their blueline is currently loaded, they need to make sure they have someone in the pipeline to replace one of their aging stars down the road. As such, I’m not sure the Sharks will have the capital to make a major splash. They also have $5.3M in deadline cap space to utilize so they would have to get creative to add someone on a bigger contract.

One player I like a lot for the Sharks is Jason Pomenville, a player who has shown he can play a variety of roles if asked and do so effectively. I previously discussed Pomenville in the Calgary Flames’ section. The Sharks are a really good team but I certainly wouldn’t think of them as a top speed team so adding a player like Pomenville, who isn’t the fastest player any more, wouldn’t be a major drag on their style of play. The biggest question would be Pomenville would be willing to accept a trade to San Jose. I’m not entirely sure he would and I also question if the Sabres would be willing to move him with them being close to a playoff spot themselves but he would be a tremendous addition for San Jose.

Another team that finds themselves in a similar situation to the Sabres is Carolina, who has Micheal Ferland and Justin Williams on expiring contracts. Both players would be great adds for the Sharks but, again, I’m not sure they are available. Williams would be an especially intriguing add. He like Pomenville, is having a sneaky solid season despite not putting up big scoring numbers, with his team being better in shots and expected goals ratios when he is on the ice versus when he is off. There also has to be something to be said about Williams’ tremendous playoff success. Another player who is having a decent season when looking at their shots and expected goals ratios but hasn’t lit up the scoresheet is the St. Louis Blues’ Patrick Maroon. He worked out well as a deadline addition for the Devils last season and could be a decent fit for the Sharks as well. Again, he might not be acquirable but he hasn’t worked out as well in St. Louis as they were likely hoping.

Predicted Trade: San Jose acquires Jason Pomenville in exchange for a 2020 third-round pick with Buffalo retaining 50% of the cap hit.

Vegas Golden Knights

Potential Need: Finishing Talent

Vegas is another scary, fairly complete team. However, they are the second worst team (to Carolina) in scoring versus what is expected during 5v5 play. They have scored 14 goals under what would be expected of them. This is a measure that over time should move toward zero, unless the team has talented or untalented shooters. However, at this point in the season, there have been enough games played where it is safe to draw conclusions. Vegas could use another scorer.

Potential Targets:

Vegas is in position once again to make a deep playoff run. However, this year their path through the West is going to be much tougher than last year with Calgary and San Jose looking to be extremely tough opponents. The question is whether Vegas will stay the course, make some minor tweaks, or try to make a big splash? I think they go for the big splash in hopes of making another deep playoff run. For Vegas, I have looked at targets who have at least 10 5v5 goals and have outscored their individual expected goals for. I have four players who fit the above criteria and would qualify as making a big splash. These players are Phil Kessel, Jeff Skinner, Artemi Panarin, and Matt Duchene.

Let’s start with Phil Kessel. The Penguins are struggling and have been rumored to be willing to move Kessel. Vegas is one of the few teams who probably would be willing to acquire Kessel during the season. Most teams would probably have to shuffle too much salary to make this trade possible; Vegas doesn’t. Although he is aging, Kessel is still a lethal scorer who plays a very south to north game, a good fit with Vegas. The question is whether Vegas wants to add a player whose cap hit is likely going to far outweigh the player’s production in another year or two. Maybe Vegas does want to add someone who would be more than just a potential rental. If so, Kessel would make a lot of sense. If not, Kessel is out. With Vegas already having significant salary commitments next season, I don’t think a player with term is in their plans.

Jeff Skinner would be an awesome fit with Vegas. He’s a great skater who could provide the finishing ability the team has been lacking this season. He’s also on an expiring contract. However, I don’t see the Sabres moving Skinner unless contract talks completely fall off the rails. I think the team wants to sign him to a long-term contract and that them falling out of the playoff race between now and the deadline won’t change that. Skinner hasn’t really been on a successful team in his career and a trade even with the intention of re-signing him in the offseason could backfire on the Sabres. A taste of success might deter Skinner from coming back to Buffalo. However, if Skinner can be had, I think he would be a near perfect fit in Vegas.

Panarin is a player in a similar situation as Skinner. However, it seems much more likely that he will walk as a free agent. The Columbus, like Buffalo, is fighting for a playoff spot and a trade of their star scorer will likely put a major damper on their ability to play in the postseason. I previously wrote that the team should go for it and use Panarin as their own rental but my gut tells me they will move Panarin between now and the deadline. The market appears to be shaping up favorably for sellers and Panarin would likely fetch the biggest haul. Columbus also has much more leverage than many other sellers because they can easily say they would be happy to hold onto Panarin if the value isn’t there and they wouldn’t be bluffing. 

Finally, we come to Matt Duchene. Unless he signs a contract with Ottawa in the coming days (I doubt it will happen), I fully expect him to be traded. Vegas was reportedly close to making a major trade with Ottawa for Karlsson at the deadline last year and could look to do it again this year. With Ottawa currently without a first-round draft pick and going into full-rebuild, the team desperately needs to add draft capital. Enter Vegas. No buyer has more draft capital than Vegas and even though they still need to build organizational depth, they certainly could afford to part with picks. Last year, Vegas’s depth down the middle was an area of weakness. In the offseason, they added Paul Stastny. However, he is an aging player who has already missed some time with injury this season. Duchene has the versatility to play center or wing, which could provide insurance in case of more injury trouble up the middle.

Predicted Trade: Vegas acquires Matt Duchene in exchange for Vegas’s 2019 first-round pick, the two highest 2019 third round picks (Vegas owns their own plus Pittsburgh’s and Dallas’s) and Vegas’s 2020 second-round pick that would become a first if Duchene re-signs or Vegas wins the Stanley Cup.

This will conclude my formal, extended discussion of the Pacific Division. For other divisions, I have wrote about five teams, all of who I expect could and should add at the deadline. I don’t think another team in the Pacific should be looking to add. 

However, I do think there will be plenty of intrigue surrounding some of the other Pacific teams, but as sellers that I will do a rapid-fire write-up for the Canucks, Ducks, Oilers, and Kings. As I wrote in my introduction, I think Arizona will be quiet between now and the deadline.

Anaheim Ducks

The Ducks are a mess and should be looking to sell anything they can. If Ryan Miller were not injured, he may be their most intriguing rental option as he was having a phenomenal season. Jakub Silfverberg should also draw interest. However, Anaheim has been significantly worse while he has been on the ice and considering how bad the Ducks have been as a whole, that is a pretty tough thing to accomplish. If Anaheim is willing to trade anyone, teams should be calling on Hampus Lindholm, Brandon Montour, Ondrej Kase (even though he’s injured), and Rickard Rakell. I wouldn’t move any of those players unless a haul is coming back but it if Anaheim is looking to make major shakeups those pieces are going to be their most desirable.

Edmonton Oilers

Yikes. If I’m running the Oilers, I’m willing to listen to offers on anyone not named Connor McDavid. The price for Draisaitl, Nugent-Hopkins, Klefbom, and Nurse would be high. I also would not be eager to move Jesse Puljujarvi. The problem is just about no one else would have much value. At some point, the Oilers are going to have to make a blockbuster and the deadline probably isn’t the time to pull that off. The fact that Alex Chiasson is the team’s most attractive rental player is a major problem. He’s played well enough to probably fetch some value but it won’t be too significant. If the Oilers are smart, they have a very quiet deadline and ride it out for the rest of the season. During the offseason, they will hopefully gut their organization and set it in a new direction.

Los Angeles Kings

I expect the Kings to be the most active sellers at the deadline. They have some very attractive pieces and appear willing to accept the fact that they are going nowhere. The two facts should equal a significant sale. I correctly predicted the trade of Jake Muzzin to the Leafs. Additionally, I have predicted trades of Tyler Toffoli, Kyle Clifford, Alex Iafallo, and Jonathan Quick. Carl Hagelin is also a prime candidate to be traded but due to his injury at the time of writing for most of the articles, I did not include him in any move. There has been talks of Ilya Kovalchuk and Jeff Carter also being available but I don’t see either of them being attractive enough options. If I’m the Kings, I would listen to offers on every player not named Anze Kopitar, though I doubt Drew Doughty would be moved, I would be willing to for the right price.

Vancouver Canucks

Vancouver should not under any circumstances attempt to speed up their timeline unless they can find an absolute bargain. I would even consider selling but outside of Alex Edler and Chris Tanev, I don’t see anyone who the Canucks should consider trading that will bring back decent value. One strategy Vancouver could undertake is to play facilitator. They are in a good spot with their salary cap this year and next. They could take advantage of other teams needing to a third team to help make their salary cap situation work and pick up prospects or picks along the way, much like Vegas did last year in the trade that landed Derrick Brassard in Pittsburgh.

That concludes our series on the potential trades that I predict could happen between the time of writing and the trade deadline. Should you have thoughts or wish to way in, you can let us know on Twitter, @afpanalytics, or you can tweet at me, @k_sticher. Here’s to a fun couple weeks hockey fans!

All statistics are courtesy of Corsica.hockey and salary info and draft pick info is courtesy of capfriendly.com. 

KYLE STICH is the Director of AFP Analytics.  In addition, Mr. Stich is a tax specialist and Director of Operations at AFP Consulting LLC, whose clientele include professional athletes performing services on three separate continents. Mr. Stich earned his Master of Science in Sport Management with a Concentration in Sport Analytics from Columbia University in 2017. He earned his undergraduate degrees in Accounting and Sport Management from St. John Fisher College in 2015, where he has served as an adjunct professor teaching Sport Finance and Baseball Analytics.

Potential NHL Trade Proposals: Central Division

With the holiday roster freeze ended and many teams having an idea of where they stand this season, now is a great time to start looking at some trades that would make a lot of sense. It has been a trend in the NHL to start making trades earlier and earlier and the unique way this season has played out so far and with a potential major prize to be had in the draft, with another potential superstar available some teams who have fallen well behind, might be best served to help get themselves the best odds at Jack Hughes. What is maybe the most interesting so far this season is there are multiple teams who are loaded with young talent and playing better than expected and multiple teams who have talented veterans that are well out of the playoff race already.

In this article series, I have chosen five teams from each division who I believe could look to make a trade to solidify their roster for this season and maybe beyond. I will start with the Atlantic division and work my way through the league. None of these trades have been pulled from thin air. I have looked at where the teams are weakest in their “advanced metrics.” I then filtered players by specified criteria and looked at whether they would make sense for a given team. I will attempt to put a price on some targets but may not be entirely accurate. I will also add this disclaimer: I am much more familiar with some teams’ farm systems than others so please forgive me if I am vaguer with some teams than others. Also, all stats were collected as of December 11^th.  You can find the Atlantic Division here and the Metro Division here.

Nashville Predators

Potential Need: Upgrade in depth

The Predators are one of the most complete teams in the NHL, especially on their backend. Their biggest issue so far is they have been decimated by injuries. Despite this, the Predators have still managed to stay toward the top of the league. The Predators are in win now mode and way never have a better chance at winning a Stanley Cup than they have right now. They need to do everything they can to capitalize on this opportunity. If I were running the team, I would be looking to upgrade where ever possible. Armed with draft picks in every round of the next three drafts and nearly $30M of deadline cap space, the Predators could be one of the most active teams around the deadline.

Potential Targets

The only problem the Predators face is they do not have tons of future salary cap space. They are currently projected to have around $10M in space. This will be added to whatever raise in salary cap takes place (probably around $3M). Now this doesn’t mean they can’t add anyone with term but they will probably be limited to just one player with term. I would imagine a player that would provide enough of an upgrade to justify acquiring would come in between $5M and $8M. They will also need to give Ryan Hartman and Kevin Fiala, along with other role players, new contracts as well. Although I wouldn’t take this stance as a GM, I do not anticipate another GM in their division helping them out. As such, I will not consider a trade within the division.

Let’s start with identifying potential rental players that could help the Predators. Mark Stone, Jordan Eberle, Matt Duchene, Artemi Panarin, Jeff Skinner, Kevin Hayes, Gustav Nyquist, Jori Lehtera, Marcus Johansson, Mats Zuccarello, Brock Nelson, Carl Hagelin, Wayne Simmonds, Jakob Silfverberg, Anders Lee, and Eric Staal are all players who I think COULD be traded. I think the chances of Eberle, Panarin, Skinner, Nelson, and Lee being moved are small. If you continue reading, you will see I will predict Mark Stone being moved to another team in the central. Of these players, I really like the potential fits of Duchene, Hayes, Nyquist, or Zuccarello in Nashville. The first three could also be players that Nashville could look to commit term to as well. Of these players, Hayes and Nyquist have improved their teams’ shot metrics while on the ice and have a better than average expected goals for percentage. For those unfamiliar with expected goals for percentage, it basically tells us their team is expected to outscore their opponent while they are on the ice.

As far as players with term go, I don’t like the options as much but I could see Chris Kreider, Tyler Toffoli, and, depending on what shakes out in Calgary and Florida, Michael Frolik, Nick Bjugstad, Mike Hoffman, and Evgeni Dadonov, being fits for Nashville. If I were in charge in Calgary, I wouldn’t cater to Frolik and his agent but if they do, I think he would be a tremendous fit in Nashville. Florida has had a disappointing season thus far and a playoff appearance isn’t overly likely this season. This doesn’t mean they should be in any rush to deal players under contract beyond this season but back to back seasons where they have failed to meet expectations, could trigger them to shake up their core. Of the players I have floated from Florida, Bjugstad is the most likely to be moved. Kreider, Toffoli, Frolik, and Hoffman all fall into the same group as Hayes and Nyquist from above.

Predicted Trade:I’m going to predict two trades here because I truly think Nashville will be incredibly active as the deadline rolls around.

1. Nashville acquires Gustav Nyquist in exchange for 2020 top 10 protected first-round pick.
2. Nashville acquires Chris Kreider in exchange for Colton Sissons, 2019 first-round pick, 2021 third-round pick

Winnipeg Jets

Potential Need: Offensive Play-maker

If you have been reading along, I previously predicted that Winnipeg would trade Nikolaj Ehlers to Carolina in exchange for Brett Pesce and Warren Foegele. You may wonder why I predicted that trade while also saying Winnipeg needs an offensive play-maker. Here’s why: I feel like going this route would be most beneficial both in the short and long-term for the Jets. Winnipeg has a plethora of young forwards who should continue to improve. They do not have the same depth on their blueline. Pesce would be a tremendous add, especially with the extended loss of Dustin Byfuglien and the long-term uncertainty of both Jacob Trouba and Tyler Myers. Pesce and Foegle would also come with a lower combined cap hit than Ehlers, which might be important for Winnipeg as soon as this offseason. 

Ehlers is a tremendous player and moving him would certainly hurt the Jets up front. This in addition to the fact they ranked 23^rdin the NHL with 53 expected goals for, with only 58 actually scored at the time of data collection make an offensive play-maker needed. With a savvy rental player pickup or two, I think the Jets could replace Ehlers’ production in the short-term and hope another one of their tremendous young players can slot into Ehlers’ spot long-term. Would this be a risky play for a team who is a cup favorite this season? Absolutely. However, I also think it would be a risk worth taking to potentially keep open the team’s Cup window longer.

Potential Targets

Again, if you have been reading along, you will find these criteria familiar, meaning I see the competition stiff for players who are possible targets here. In terms of on ice performance, I looked for players who improved their teams’ offensive performance when they are on the ice. The numbers I looked at were relative shots % and relative expected goals for %. One difference for Winnipeg is I think they must look for players who are pure rentals. They are projected to have $26M in deadline salary cap space, which is plenty to do damage with. They are currently projected to have $23M plus any additional cap space from the cap rising this offseason. However, the team has multiple restricted and unrestricted free agents that they are going to have to pay or replace. Those include Patrik Laine, Kyle Connor, and Jacob Trouba, who could eat up most of that cap space themselves. In addition to those three players, they may have to give new contracts to as many as eight additional players. Unless they can find other players like Pesce, I don’t think adding term is a smart decision. 

Please see my above discussion for the Nashville Predators for players who would also be a good fit for Winnipeg. Detroit might be the biggest benefactor of the arms race that might take place in the Central at the trade deadline as I think Gustav Nyquist might be one of the most attractive rental options available. He is probably third, behind Stone and Duchene. However, I think he is the most likely to be moved as Ottawa really needs to try to retain their top remaining players while Detroit should be ready to move on from Nyquist, especially if a bidding war ensues. Since I have previously predicted Nyquist to Nashville, I am assuming he will not be available for Winnipeg to acquire. You might think this is where I have Mark Stone going but you will have to keep reading for that. Instead, I will turn my attention to Kevin Hayes.

The more I think about it, the more I like the fit of Hayes in Winnipeg. He provides a little diversity to what the Jets already have. He is more of a power forward, similar to Blake Wheeler, who can provide some middle-six depth and kill penalties. As the other teams around them gear up, Winnipeg will have to follow suit without mortgaging their future salary cap. It will certainly be tough, but Hayes fits the bill. 

Predicted Trade: Winnipeg acquires Kevin Hayes in exchange for one of Jack Roslovic, Nic Petan, Brendan Lemieux, or 2019 first-round pick and 2021 third round pick.

Colorado Avalanche

Potential Need: Someone to generate offense

MacKinnon, Rantanen, and Landeskog are not the Avalanche’s problem this year. The rest of their forwards are. Colorado and the Buffalo Sabres are like mirror images of each other. Both got off to tremendous starts largely propelled by ridiculous play from their top lines. Both teams are now coming back to realistic levels and their top lines aren’t scoring at the same rate they were. When data was collected, Colorado was fourth last in expected goals, with 51. They were also ninth worst in shot generation with Dallas, Anaheim, New York Islanders, and Buffalo behind them. Basically, the recipe for success is not there. 

Potential Targets

Colorado is in a very interesting spot. They are the sixth youngest team in the league and holding their own in possibly the toughest division in the NHL. They also have the most valuable trade asset in their possession, the Ottawa Senators’ 2019 first-round pick, which likely will have the best chance at being first overall. One of the problems Colorado has is their younger players outside of MacKinnon and Rantanen haven’t yet taken as big of a step forward as the team has probably hoped. Do they sit idly for another season, hope they land another potential superstar center in Jack Hughes and hope their other young players take that step forward next season or do they give themselves more of a shot this year?

I wouldn’t have included Colorado here if I didn’t expect them to make a move. I’m not saying that is the wisest decision but I think they are a team that wants to take advantage of making consecutive playoff appearances. With the tremendous top-end talent and two goalies, who have shown the ability to get hot and steal games, anything is possible if they make it into the playoffs.

For potential targets for Colorado, I used the same criteria as I did for Winnipeg. I looked for players who improved their teams’ offensive performance when they are on the ice. The numbers I looked at were relative shots % and relative expected goals for %. I’m going to save the energy of going through a bunch of names and say this is where I have Mark Stone going. I’ve maintained since Ottawa made their first-round pick in Dallas, that they would wrangle their pick back from Colorado. Dangling Mark Stone is going to be Ottawa’s best chance at possibly prying that pick free. I don’t think Stone as a rental is going to be enough to get that pick back. Colorado could use some help with their depth or on their blue line as well.

Predicted Trade: Colorado acquires Mark Stone, one of Maxime Lajole or Christian Jaros, and Ryan Dzingel in exchange for Ottawa’s First-Round Pick. Conditions: If both Stone and Dzingel remain in Colorado or Colorado wins this year’s Stanley Cup, Ottawa will receive a 2020 first-round pick. If Stone does not remain in Colorado, Ottawa will also send a 2020 second round pick to Colorado.

Dallas Stars

Potential Need: Offensive Depth

If I’m confident in one thing in all of this writing, its Dallas will make some move to acquire some scoring help. Usually when your upper leadership calls out your team’s two highest paid players, it means some changes are coming. Oh wait, that isn’t usual! Either way a trade is coming. Dallas needs help both on offense and defense. If the team is looking to make a move, I would imagine they would look at a move for a forward. The Stars have plenty of defensemen in their system, they just are injured. Could the team use another top defenseman? Who couldn’t? However, that would likely require them trading another defenseman and I don’t see that as a real possibility. I also think the team could use an upgrade more at forward than on their blueline. The Stars have to be one of the top-heaviest teams in the league and even though they have some nice depth players, I think they are lacking a true second-line. If you have been reading along in this series, I think they compare very well to the Buffalo Sabres.

Potential Targets:

The Stars are in a tough spot. They are currently projected to have just under $4M in deadline cap space. If they can get healthy, that would provide them a little more wiggle room as they currently have four players injured that are eating up nearly $13M in cap space. Maybe they could utilize Long-term Injured Reserve for some cap relief, but they would probably prefer to get those healthy instead as they definitely could bolster the line-up. If the team were fully healthy, they would have plenty of deadline cap space to add a nice second-line player. The Stars would probably like to find someone with term as they have Jason Spezza’s contract coming off the book, which also means they could be losing one of their better depth players.

For potential targets for Dallas, I used the same criteria as I did for Winnipeg and Colorado. I looked for players who improved their teams’ offensive performance when they are on the ice. The numbers I looked at were relative shots % and relative expected goals for %. When data was collected, Dallas was fourth worst in the NHL in shot percentage. The only team in a playoff position behind them at the time was Anaheim. Dallas could desperately use some help in driving offense. Despite the comments about Benn and Seguin, I do not see the team moving either player during the season. 

If you have read this division’s write-up, you are likely already familiar with many of the names who would be good fits for the Stars. Ironically, one player who appears on the list when I set the criteria detailed above is Justin Dowling, a player in the Stars’ system. Maybe they should give him more of a look? Otherwise, there are plenty of other names. Two players who I have not previously discussed are Blake Coleman and Miles Wood from the New Jersey Devils. With the Devils continuing to muddle as an average team, it is fair to wonder if the team would be open to moving either of those players. If I’m running the Devils, I wouldn’t actively be looking to move them. I think both players are too similar to what Dallas already has in terms of depth, quality third-line players. However, I would never completely dismiss acquiring players who are under team friendly contracts with term. 

Another player that I don’t think would be available but could be worth mentioning is Bryan Rust. I think Rust is a tremendous complimentary piece but like the Devils, I’m not sure Pittsburgh is really willing to trade him. However, if Rutherford’s past history holds true, I would never dismiss him moving some players to tweak his roster. Rust would be a tremendous second-line depth player for the Stars. 

Ultimately, there has been one player who I have continuously discussed but have not yet predicted a trade centering around them. That player is Tyler Toffoli. I actually like the fit of Toffoli in Dallas a lot. He would be a perfect second-line player for them, has term on his contract, and fits the criteria I set forth. The Kings are clearly a team that is going to look to make some major moves and Toffoli is likely one of their most valuable assets. The Stars will be looking to shake things up and an acquisition of Toffoli would do that. It also would give them some lineup versatility as they could consider playing one of Radulov, Seguin, or Benn with Toffoli to have two more balanced lines. I think the biggest hurdle would be the Stars relatively weak prospect pool.

Predicted Trade:

Stars acquire Tyler Toffoli in exchange for a protected 2020 first-round pick, mid-level prospect, and a depth NHL player.     

Minnesota Wild

Potential Need: Goaltending

Devan Dubnyk has come back to earth and has continued to fall. Minnesota’s goaltending is a major issue. I had to double check the numbers so as of this writing, Dubnyk had given up 11.5 more goals than average, second worst to only Martin Jones. The good news is Dubnyk’s cap hit is only $4.3M. The bad news is he’s starting to get to the age where you wonder whether he will bounce back. Older goalies bouncing back is certainly possible but Minnesota might want to make sure they have another more reliable option and Alex Stalock doesn’t look like it.

Potential Targets: 

Minnesota is a team who is in tight against the cap and probably shouldn’t be looking to add much more salary for their goaltenders. I think they could easily entertain making a move for a goalie whose contract is expiring as well as someone with term. I also focused on goalies who saved shots at least at average level. Some players that I think would be good fits for Minnesota are Thomas Greiss, Robin Lehner, Jimmy Howard, MacKenzie Blackwood, Casey Desmith, Curtis McElhinney, Jacob Markstrom, Pheonix Copley, Brian Elliot, Anton Khudobin, Petr Mrazek, Keith Kinkaid, Anders Nilsson, and Matt Murray. I have previously traded Elliot to Montreal, Howard to Pittsburgh, and Nilsson to Tampa (prior to his trade to Ottawa). 

So, let’s try to whittle the list down. I’m not sure what Pittsburgh would do but one of Desmith or Murray would be a very intriguing option for Minnesota. The same goes for the Islanders. I don’t think Vancouver would move Markstrom quite yet as they will likely want to ease Thatcher Demko into the NHL. Washington shouldn’t move Copley as they need insurance for Holtby and I doubt Dallas would trade Khudobin to a direct playoff competitor. By my process of elimination, I think Keith Kinkaid, one of the Pittsburgh goalies, or one of the Carolina Hurricane goalies. If I’m Minnesota, I’m concerned with the consistency of the Carolina goalies.

Predicted Trade: Minnesota acquires Keith Kinkaid in exchange for 2020 third-round pick. Note if Minnesota acquires a 2019 fourth round pick, that would likely be the price. 

Next up: Pacific Division. You can follow us on Twitter, @afpanalytics to see when our final installment is posted. You can also let me know your thoughts there.

Statistics courtesy of Corsica.hockey and contract data courtesy of capfriendly.com.

KYLE STICH is the Director of AFP Analytics.  In addition, Mr. Stich is a tax specialist and Director of Operations at AFP Consulting LLC, whose clientele include professional athletes performing services on three separate continents. Mr. Stich earned his Master of Science in Sport Management with a Concentration in Sport Analytics from Columbia University in 2017. He earned his undergraduate degrees in Accounting and Sport Management from St. John Fisher College in 2015, where he has served as an adjunct professor teaching Sport Finance and Baseball Analytics.

Potential Trade Proposals: Metro Division

With the holiday roster freeze ended and many teams having an idea of where they stand this season, now is a great time to start looking at some trades that would make a lot of sense. It has been a trend in the NHL to start making trades earlier and earlier and the unique way this season has played out so far and with a potential major prize to be had in the draft, with another potential superstar available some teams who have fallen well behind, might be best served to help get themselves the best odds at Jack Hughes. What is maybe the most interesting so far this season is there are multiple teams who are loaded with young talent and playing better than expected and multiple teams who have talented veterans that are well out of the playoff race already.

In this article series, I have chosen five teams from each division who I believe could look to make a trade to solidify their roster for this season and maybe beyond. I will start with the Atlantic division and work my way through the league. None of these trades have been pulled from thin air. I have looked at where the teams are weakest in their “advanced metrics.” I then filtered players by specified criteria and looked at whether they would make sense for a given team. I will attempt to put a price on some targets but may not be entirely accurate. I will also add this disclaimer: I am much more familiar with some teams’ farm systems than others so please forgive me if I am vaguer with some teams than others. Also, all stats were collected as of December 11^th.  You can find the Atlantic Division here.

Metropolitan Division

Washington Capitals

Potential Need: Shot Suppressor

The Capitals have been rattling off points recently and have positioned themselves well for another playoff run. With the way the Capitals approached the offseason, it is not surprising that many of the same issues persisted into this season. The Capitals biggest weakness is they are giving up 60 shots per game during 5v5 play. To put that in context, the only playoff teams with worse rates are Toronto and Anaheim. Overall, there are only six teams allowing more shots than Washington. 

Potential Targets:

To find a player to help Washington, I looked for players who were better than average in suppressing shots and have a positive shot differential while on the ice. The list of players who fit the criteria is quite extensive but many of the players would not be available for trade. The Capitals are tight up against the salary cap and would likely need to move some money out to make any tweaks to their roster. With the organization having appeared to sour on AndréBurakovsky, he could be a prime player to move out for some depth options. With Burakovsky still young, teams looking to rebuild could have interest in him. 

There was one team with multiple players who fit the specified criteria, while being relatively inexpensive, and should definitely be looking to rebuild. That team is the Los Angeles Kings. They had Tyler Toffoli, Carl Hagelin, Kyle Clifford, Alex Iafallo, Nate Thompson, Jake Muzzin, Derek Forbort, and Drew Doughty appear on this list. Doughty isn’t going to Washington and Thompson has been too suspect in his career to instill confidence. I already have traded Jake Muzzin to Toronto and Tyler Toffoli might be a little too expensive. Carl Hagelin could be an interesting move but he is currently injured and might not provide enough value to move Burakovsky and additional pieces might be tough to include and make the money work. This has me homing in on Forbort, Iaffalo, and Clifford. If I were in charge, I would love to get my hands on Forbort to play with John Carlson, which would also allow Michal Kempny to slot into the third pair. However, I think Washington will look to bolster their forward depth instead because they have left-handed Brooks Orpik slated to return at some point. Truthfully, I’m not sure if Los Angeles would be willing to move a young player like Iaffalo but Burakovsky is younger and has a higher ceiling. Iaffalo would be a really quality middle six player for Washington. Kyle Clifford would also provide better bottom six depth than what Washington is currently fielding.

Predicted Trade: Washington acquires Alex Iaffalo, Kyle Clifford, and a 4^thround pick in exchange for AndréBurakovsky.

Columbus Blue Jackets

Potential Need: Possession Driver

Columbus ranks in the bottom 12^thworst in possession, 13^thworst shots for, and 11^thworst in shots against. Although not terrible, Columbus is currently a solid contender in the Eastern Conference and might have their best chance ever to make a playoff run. With so much uncertainty surrounding the contract situations of some of the team’s top players, now might be the time to go for it. For a team that is close, their possession numbers do not inspire enough confidence in a dominating playoff run. A second-round exit would be incredibly disappointing and that is probably the best-case scenario if they continue playing at this level. The team has two options as the trade deadline gets closer, add talent in hopes of making a run or trade Panarin and Bobrovsky instead of risk losing them for nothing in free agency. If I’m running Columbus, I’m going for it. Their division is weak and advancing to the Eastern Conference Finals is a definite possibility if they can add some talent. If they get there, they need to hope the powers in the Atlantic tire each other enough to get to the Stanley Cup Finals.

Potential Targets:

Columbus has plenty of salary cap space to add with potential trade deadline cap space of nearly $32M and currently they can add around $11M-$12M. If Panarin and Bobrovsky leave this summer, Columbus will have significant cap space to work with next season and beyond as well. The biggest question is whether they are willing to spend it and if they add via trade, whether they have enough assets to acquire the level of players who will eat into that cap space. In terms of on ice performance, I looked for players who improved their teams’ offensive performance when they are on the ice. The numbers I looked at were relative shots % and relative expected goals for %. If you read my previous installment, you may recognize I had the same criteria for the Buffalo Sabres. Columbus could also potentially benefit from adding some help in net, especially someone with some term.

One player who could be on Columbus’s radar is Brayden Schenn. However, since I previously constructed a trade sending him to Buffalo, I will not consider him here for Columbus. However, that does not mean Columbus won’t talk with St. Louis regarding other players. One really interesting name could be Artemi Panarin’s good friend, Vladimir Tarasenko. If St. Louis would seriously consider moving Tarasenko, Columbus should inquire. Columbus has some really nice forwards but outside of Panarin, there is no one to strike fear into an opponent. A line of Panarin-Dubois-Tarasenko would be outstanding and arguably the best in the league. Acquiring Tarasenko could also help convince Panarin to stay and that should be Columbus’s ultimate goal. Columbus definitely would have the cap space to make this happen.

Tarasenko may not be available and would certainly come at quite the price. There are other options available that could be tremendous adds for the shorter-term. I’ll start with another Blue, Jaden Schwartz, who has term as well and would add to Columbus’s forward depth. He would be a nice add for this season and could potentially help replace Panarin next season, if he walks. Another player signed beyond this year that would fit well is Tyler Toffoli from the Los Angeles Kings. If the Blue Jackets opt for a pure rental, Gustav Nyquist from Detroit would be a nice addition to provide a little more punch up front. The downside with these three players is they provide much of the same of what Columbus ultimately has, really good middle six players but not enough top end talent. If Columbus added one of these players, they would be putting tremendous depth up against top end talent in the playoffs. It hasn’t worked out in the past for them and if I were them, I would wing for the fences.

Predicted Trade: Columbus acquires Vladimir Tarasenko and Jake Allen from St. Louis in exchange for Josh Anderson, Joonas Koripisalo, a protected 2019 first-round pick, and Sonny Milano.

Pittsburgh

Potential Need: Goaltending

In actuality, Pittsburgh looks like one of the top teams when considering some of their more advanced metrics. I am sure they will look to add some roster depth but the reality is they have no major weaknesses outside of their goaltending. Matt Murray has not been good since the two magical playoff runs and I’m not sure it would be wise for Pittsburgh to rely on the combination of Murray, Tristian Jarry, and Casey Desmith to contend for another Stanley Cup. 

Potential Targets:

Pittsburgh is known to swing big so I expect them to potentially be linked to some of the big names available around the trade deadline. However, I think they should turn their primary focus to goaltenders available. I think there will be three big name goaltenders that will be on the available at the deadline, Detroit’s Jimmy Howard, Los Angeles’s Jonathan Quick, and Chicago’s Corey Crawford, depending on his health. I think Howard would make the most sense for Pittsburgh as he will be a free agent after this season and not impact Pittsburgh’s future cap, which will continue to be an issue for them as long as they stay in “win now mode.” 

A trade for Howard would be complicated unless Detroit or Pittsburgh moves salary before the trade as Pittsburgh would need some of Howard’s retained of would have to send salary back to Detroit. However, Detroit does not have any additional salary cap space as they are utilizing Long-Term Injured Reserve to exceed the salary cap. Detroit definitely could move Nyquist prior to any Howard trade and then potentially retain salary. I’m not sure salary matching would make a lot of sense for either team.

Predicted Trade: Pittsburgh acquiresJimmy Howard in exchange for a 2^ndround pick and Detroit retaining15% of salary.

Carolina Hurricanes

Potential Need: Someone who can score goals

This is probably the easiest team need to write. Carolina does so many things incredibly well but they can’t score. Their goaltending could be improved but scoring is their biggest problem. They have scored 30 less goals than expected this season! If they scored as expected, they would have scored an extra goal in every game they have played. How much higher would they be in the standings had they done that? Yes, Carolina needs goal scoring and they could move some of their extra defensive talent to acquire what they need.

Potential Targets

I filtered players based on who are currently outperforming their expected goal totals. To me this means they have some sort of finishing talent. Although this is not perfect logic because my criteria could mean that the players are due to regress. There are plenty of players who fit this criterion. The problem is many of these players aren’t likely to be traded. One player on this list who would make a lot of sense if Jeff Skinner. Oh wait! Carolina already had him and traded him. Oops! There are still plenty of intriguing names on this list including Anthony Mantha, Nikolaj Ehlers, Mike Hoffman, Mark Stone, Gustav Nyquist, Mikael Granlund, Chris Kreider, Kasperi Kapanen, Tomas Tatar, Alex Steen, and Robby Fabbri. I think the most interesting names here are Mantha, Ehlers, Hoffman, Stone, Nyquist, Kapanen, Tatar, and Fabbri. I do not know the appetite of any of the teams to move these players but Carolina has some really good defensemen signed to extremely reasonable contracts that should be tempting.

I already discussed Toronto in my previous installment and had them acquiring Jake Muzzin. As such, I’m not going to predict a Kapanen trade here. Florida might be willing to move Hoffman but I’m not sure one of Carolina’s defenders is going to be a great fit there. I don’t think Carolina would be willing to trade a defender with term left for Mark Stone, who can become an UFA this summer. The same goes for Nyquist. I would also imagine they are looking for a longer-term solution than a rental. This leaves Mantha, Ehlers, Tatar, and Fabbri. I strongly prefer one of the first two players and if Carolina were to dangle Brett Pesce, I would think Detroit and Winnipeg would have to think long and hard about it. 

Detroit needs help on their backend and someone cost controlled would be great. Winnipeg is loaded at forward and currently have a decent backend, but not great depth going forward. I think Tucker Poolman could be a nice piece going forward but probably doesn’t project as a high-end player. With tremendous uncertainty around Jacob Trouba’s future with Winnipeg and the likely departure of Tyler Myers, the Jets have 33-year-old Dustin Byfuglien and Josh Morrissey as defensemen they can definitely count on going into next season. For a team whose cup window is now, the Jets should look to shore up their blueline. 

Predicted Trade: Carolina acquires Nikolaj Ehlers in exchange for Brett Pesce and Warren Foegele.

Philadelphia Flyers

Potential Need: Goaltending

When I started this project, the Flyers still had decent odds at making the playoffs. They have struggled recently and I considered replacing them with the Islanders. However, I think as the New Year gets rolling, it will be the Flyers potentially surging and the Islanders falling off (these are what their advanced metrics potentially indicate). I also think it is far more likely the Flyers make a move to shore up their roster than the Islanders do. With this in mind, the Flyers’ biggest need, to no one’s surprise, is goaltending. Although Carter Hart looks promising, the Flyers would still be wise to have another viable option and right now, they don’t appear to have one. The Flyers are hovering around giving up nine more goals than expected.

Potential Targets:

The Flyers need to look to find a longer-term solution to not rush Hart in the short-term and provide a viable backup option when Hart takes over. This player’s name has already been linked to Philadelphia and I think he is who the Flyers should ultimately hone in on. That player is Jonathan Quick. Is Quick going to be the missing piece of the puzzle? Probably not. The Flyers will probably need to do some other tweaking. Is Quick going to be a top tier goalie if he were in Philadelphia? I wouldn’t bet on it. However, he would provide some stability and serve as a bridge to Hart taking over full-time. He does have a somewhat reasonable cap hit and the price tag in a trade probably won’t be overly high. The Kings are in a position where it might be smart to move Quick for future assets so they can clear the way for Cal Petersen. Petersen may not quite be ready but the Kings are in no position to make the playoffs this season so allowing Petersen to grow might be a wise move.

Predicted Trade: Flyers acquire Jonathan Quick in exchange for a 2^ndround draft pick and a mid-level prospect

Statistics courtesy of Corsica.hockey and contract data courtesy of capfriendly.com.

KYLE STICH is the Director of AFP Analytics.  In addition, Mr. Stich is a tax specialist and Director of Operations at AFP Consulting LLC, whose clientele include professional athletes performing services on three separate continents. Mr. Stich earned his Master of Science in Sport Management with a Concentration in Sport Analytics from Columbia University in 2017. He earned his undergraduate degrees in Accounting and Sport Management from St. John Fisher College in 2015, where he has served as an adjunct professor teaching Sport Finance and Baseball Analytics.

Maybe there’s a Reason For the Buffalo Sabres’ December Struggles

Oh, how times have changed in Buffalo. Just over a month ago, the Sabres headed into a matchup with the Tampa Bay Lightning riding a 10-game win streak and competing for the President’s Trophy. Before that game, I wrote how their recent success probably wasn’t going to be sustainable unless the team started to play better during 5v5 play. Unfortunately for Sabre fans, I was correct in my assessment. You can read that here.

The Sabres had a miserable December and have just about given away the lead they had in the playoff race, culminating with a critical loss to the New York Islanders on New Year’s Eve. I expected things to get worse, but not to the extent they have. This got me to thinking every negative issue the Sabres have had this month. The team has dealt with multiple injuries to their defenders and also saw the contract termination of Patrik Berglund. After taking a deeper dive into some of the Sabres’ numbers this season, I think there needs to be a discussion centered around a couple players that have been missing. Those players are Berglund and Casey Nelson.

The Absence of Patrik Berglund

The discussion of Patrik Berglund is one that is multi-faceted. The considerations that need to be considered here include both the on-ice implications and the possible off-ice implications. I’m going to start with the off-ice implications, a very complicated matter. There has been very little discussion about what occurred with Berglund and why he left the team, leading to his contract being terminated. I will never speculate about a player’s personal life so whatever occurred with Berglund, I hope he gets everything in order. However, I have to wonder what type of impact the situation had on the team. Since Berglund played his last game with Buffalo on December 8^th, the Sabres have went 4-7-3 in those games. That is obviously not good. Without having any sort of access to the Sabres’ locker room, I think it is difficult to draw any sort of conclusions. However, I also think it would be irresponsible to completely ignore the intangible aspect of Berglund’s departure, regardless of what the players and coaches are saying.

Even though I have no pulse on the intangible aspects of Berglund’s departure, that does not mean the numbers can’t provide us some insights. When Patrik Berglund was on the ice, the Sabres had virtually the same shot metrics versus when he was off the ice. For a player playing a bottom six role, I would be happy with that contribution. However, the Sabres’ goal differential was 28% worse with Berglund on the ice and their expected goals for percentage was six percent worse. However, I also think it is important to look at how the Sabres performed with and without Berglund in the lineup. 

You may be wondering why I have decided to assess Berglund from this perspective so let me quickly elaborate before I discuss what the numbers show. One of the reasons the weaknesses the Sabres’ general manager, Jason Botterill, identified this offseason was the team’s depth. Part of the reason for trading Ryan O’Reilly is the team was hoping that the return could help them put a more balanced team on the ice. This means instead of filling the bottom of the roster with players that shouldn’t be playing in the NHL, the Sabres were able to slot in players who have proven they can at least play at an acceptable NHL level. When they are out of the lineup, everyone gets bumped up a spot so the lineup is weakened. It could also disrupt some line chemistry. Below I have shown how the Sabres stack up in some key measures with and without Patrik Berglund in the lineup.

The Sabres have played just about the same number of games with and without Patrik Berglund and have seen a drop-off in their shot metrics without Berglund in the lineup. Please note, when I use the term I mean everything towards goal. If I want to talk about just those shots on goal, I will call them just that, which has translated to a drop in winning percentage, which is not a major surprise. The one number that is most surprising is the Sabres have actually outscored opponents without Berglund in the lineup and they haven’t overall or with him in. I would be willing to bet that the Sabres will either start controlling the shots more or start to see their goals for percentage fall, which would definitely mean their winning percentage begins to drop. I definitely believe getting his contract off the books long-term is still incredibly beneficial but for Sabre fans hoping to see their team in the playoffs, I think the departure of Berglund is being felt more than has been talked about, at least in the short-term. Deep breaths Sabre fans, I might be able to put you a little more at ease.

Remember that paragraph about how the Sabres improved their depth and because of it weren’t putting players who shouldn’t be in the NHL in their lineup? Weeeelllllll……. This is where the Sabres have a problem and his name is Remi Elie. I can appreciate the Sabres wanting to give Elie a fair shot. After all, he hasn’t been terrible in the past, he is still young, is willing to play a physical game, and provides some decent speed. Last year in Dallas, he played 72 games and while he was on the ice, Dallas was virtually even in their shot share and improved their goals for percentage. I would take that production out of a fourth line player. Unfortunately, he has provided nothing near this for Buffalo, as the Sabres’ shot share has been 8% worse and their goal differential has been a whooping 23% worse when Elie is on the ice. Their expected goal differential is 12% worse However, just like Berglund, I wanted to look at the overall picture when he is in the lineup versus when he is not. For added context, I have also provided how the Sabres performed when Elie played and Berglund did not as well as how the Sabres performed with neither in the lineup.

Although the sample is a little limited, it seems as though playing Remi Elie is a major problem for the Sabres. The only aspect of the game where the Sabres improve is their save percentage when Elie plays versus when he doesn’t. That could definitely be a sample size issue. I think the last two rows are where the Sabres and their fans should look at for the team going forward. Berglund is obviously gone so the Sabres need to decide if Elie is a reasonable replacement. Again, I want to remind that there is a small sample but it seems pretty clear that the Sabres shouldn’t be relying on Elie to replace Berglund. The Sabres may have realized that when they recalled and inserted C.J. Smith into their lineup New Year’s Eve against the Islanders. Yes, they lost the game but also played one of their best games recently and they did that with Jack Eichel exiting in the first period.

Overall, I think the loss of Berglund likely contributes a little to the Sabres’ recent struggles and is something I don’t think is being discussed enough. However, I think with the right approach, they may be able to negate that effect. If I am calling the shots in Buffalo, I would put Elie on waivers. If he clears, send him to Rochester to get some playing time and see if he can regain his form from last season. He cannot see the ice again in Buffalo. The team’s numbers are just too bad. I certainly would give Smith more chances to slot into the Sabres’ bottom six. Side note: Smith is a player who projects as a tremendous depth forward but isn’t going to light up the score sheet and shouldn’t be counted on as a top-six player long-term. The team is likely waiting until Scott Wilson is healthy so he can play that depth role but currently, the Sabres are one absence away from having to play Elie again. I would hope there is a contingency plan in place until Wilson is healthy that does not include Elie.

The Absence of Casey Nelson

Ironically, my inspiration for writing this article was the absence of Casey Nelson, who I think is one of the Sabres’ unsung heroes so far this season. To me, he is the new breed of “stay at home defensemen,” someone who is steady enough in his own end and pairs well with partners who are more free wielding, puck-moving defensemen. Over the past two seasons, Rasmus Dahlin, Brendan Guhle, and Nathan Beaulieu all have positive shot metrics when playing with Nelson but are negative when playing away from Nelson. I know there are mixed feelings on Beaulieu but the other two defensemen are players the Sabres and their fans have high hopes for and both players have benefited from playing with Casey Nelson. Just like I did in the previous section, I wanted to look at how the Sabres have performed with and without Casey Nelson in the lineup. That breakdown can be seen below.

I think the Sabres miss Nelson. Their winning percentage is far superior with Nelson in the lineup. However, their winning percentage seems less of a fluke because of the underlying numbers when Nelson has played versus when he has been out. Their shot share is nearly even and they are strongly controlling the goal differential when he is in the lineup. 

Hopefully, the numbers I have presented here offer enough support for you to appreciate what Nelson provides when he is in the lineup. The problem is the Sabres have a little bit of a logjam on their blueline of average defenders with the likes of Marco Scandella, Casey Nelson, Nathan Beaulieu, and Matt Hunwick. They also have Lawrence Pilut whose future appears bright but is still waiver eligible. Rasmus Dahlin, Zach Bogosian, and Rasmus Ristolainen are not going to come out of the lineup as long as they are healthy. Jake McCabe is probably somewhere in between. If I’m setting the lineup with every defenseman healthy, I would have Nelson and Beaulieu as my 3^rdpair. I highly doubt the Sabres take my advice there.

Conclusion

The Sabres have been relatively lucky when it comes to players in and out of the lineup. They have had some issues on the blueline but those few games shouldn’t define their season. However, for a team who is still rebuilding their organizational depth, the loss of some of their depth players appears to have a major impact on the team’s performance. The Sabres had a rough December and many fans and media members have been advocating for the Sabres to make some roster tweaks. I think the Sabres should wait and see how the team responds once Nelson is reinserted into the lineup and Elie is hel out in favor of Smith and whoever else might be needed in case of injury.

Statistics courtesy of Corsica.hockey and contract data courtesy of capfriendly.com.

KYLE STICH is the Director of AFP Analytics.  In addition, Mr. Stich is a tax specialist and Director of Operations at AFP Consulting LLC, whose clientele include professional athletes performing services on three separate continents. Mr. Stich earned his Master of Science in Sport Management with a Concentration in Sport Analytics from Columbia University in 2017. He earned his undergraduate degrees in Accounting and Sport Management from St. John Fisher College in 2015, where he has served as an adjunct professor teaching Sport Finance and Baseball Analytics.

Potential NHL Trade Proposals: Atlantic Division

With the holiday roster freeze nearly upon us and many teams having an idea of where they stand this season, now is a great time to start looking at some trades that would make a lot of sense. It has been a trend in the NHL to start making trades earlier and earlier and the unique way this season has played out so far and with a potential major prize to be had in the draft, with another potential superstar available some teams who have fallen well behind, might be best served to help get themselves the best odds at Jack Hughes. What is maybe the most interesting so far this season is there are multiple teams who are loaded with young talent and playing better than expected and multiple teams who have talented veterans that are well out of the playoff race already.

In this article series, I have chosen five teams from each division who I believe could look to make a trade to solidify their roster for this season and maybe beyond. I will start with the Atlantic division and work my way through the league. None of these trades have been pulled from thin air. I have looked at where the teams are weakest in their “advanced metrics.” I then filtered players by specified criteria and looked at whether they would make sense for a given team. I will attempt to put a price on some targets but may not be entirely accurate. I will also add this disclaimer: I am much more familiar with some teams’ farm systems than others so please forgive me if I am vaguer with some teams than others. Also, all stats were collected as of December 11^th.

Eastern Conference

Tampa Bay Lightning

Potential Need: Backup Goaltender

Andrei Vasilevskly has just returned from injury and the Lightning have to hope that he will start to stabilize the team in net. Prior to his return, the Lightning were giving up an astounding 15 more goals than expected during 5v5 play, which is third worst in the league. The team has continued to win in spite of this. For a team who is loaded everywhere else, they have to plan for the worst-case scenario and cannot consider going into the playoffs with Louis Domingue as the backup in case Vasilevskly goes down in the playoffs.

Potential Targets:

The Lightning could look to add someone with a little term as they likely will roll with Vasilevskly as their long-term starter and finding a veteran backup to play behind him for a few seasons would not be a bad idea at all. They could also opt for a short-term answer and reassess again in the offseason. Regardless, they have to address the position. I think the goalie who makes the most sense for the Lightning is Anders Nilsson from the Vancouver Canucks.

Nilsson is currently saving two more goals than average, which is nearly nine goals more than Domingue. He is also used to playing the backup role, which I think is something that needs to be considered. He carries a $2.5M cap hit, a number the Lightning could fit now or likely at any point in future as long as they don’t make any other major moves. He is also an unrestricted free agent (UFA) at season’s end so Tampa would not be locked in to him beyond this season. I can’t him costing more than a mid-round draft pick. I also think Vancouver might like to move him and clear a spot in their net for top goalie prospect, Thatcher Demko to get a taste of the NHL at the end of the season.

A few other options for the Lightning to consider are Thomas Greiss, Jimmy Howard, and Brian Elliott. However, there are consistency and injury concerns with Greiss and Elliott, and Howard comes with a higher cap hit and might be a hotter commodity at the deadline, which might require a higher payment on the Lightning’s part, which I don’t see necessary for a backup goalie. Howard would only make sense if there is any consideration of not riding Vasilevsky in the playoffs (which I don’t think there should be).

Predicted Trade: Lightning acquire Andreas Nilsson in exchange for a 4^thround pick and the trade occurs sometime after January 15^th.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Potential Need: Shot Suppressing Defender

BREAKING NEWS: The Toronto Maple Leafs’ biggest weakness is their blue line. Oh, wait that isn’t breaking news? I’m fairly confident there have been plenty of pieces written and discussions about where the Maple Leafs’ weaknesses are. Just in case you have been living under a rock and have chosen to read my piece before any others, I will give you some numbers to consider as to why the teams’ blueline is the problem. Toronto is hovering right around 50% in their shot share. However, they are giving up close to 62 shots per game, which is third worst in the league behind only Ottawa and Anaheim. They are loaded with talent at forward but lacking when it comes to defense. One of the issues I have seen while watching Leaf games is their defenders struggle to move the puck out of their zone, which I think is part of the reason they give up so many shots per game. Please note that I am drawing my own conclusions from watching only a few Leaf games. The Maple Leafs’ Stanley Cup window is opening and they should take every opportunity to maximize it. I think the biggest barrier for them is potentially Tampa Bay and there is no chance of getting by them if they are getting hemmed in their own zone for extended periods.

Potential Targets:

This offseason is going to be tough for Toronto so they may consider looking for someone on an expiring contract. I don’t think that is a bad idea but they will likely run into the same problem again next season unless they acquire someone with term. Considering a long-term solution on the blue line will likely require the team to move one of their young dynamic forwards, they could look for a short-term solution to make a run this year and then look to address the long-term issue in the offseason where it might be easier to stomach moving one of their young forwards. As far as on-ice performance goes, I looked for a defender who was better than average in terms of shots against. I also looked for players whose team was expected to outscore the other team while they were on the ice. Ironically, there are three players currently in Toronto’s organization that appear on this list, Travis Dermott, Igor Ozhiganov, and Martin Marincin. Just because these players passed my initial filter, I also recognize it is impractical for Toronto to heavily rely on them this season. Maybe they are long-term answers but Toronto should be in win-now mode and they aren’t going to get it done.

My filter produced a list of plenty of names and many of the league’s top defensemen appear (Brett Burns, Kris Letang, Ryan McDonagh, Victor Hedman, Jacob Slavin, Erik Karlsson, Mark Giordano, Brett Pesce, Dougie Hamilton, etc.). There are also some names that might not be expected. Adam Larsson appears so maybe the Leafs could trade Mitch Marner for him and make the trade one for one. Oh, wait Kyle Dubas is probably smart enough to not make that trade. So getting serious there are some names that have appeared that should be very interesting for Leaf fans. Outside of the Hurricane players that I have already listed, the remainder of their blue line appears in the list. There has been plenty of talk surrounding a Leafs-Hurricanes trade because of each team’s strengths and weaknesses. That makes plenty of sense. As Bob McKenzie discussed on a recent insider trading, a trade of Kasperi Kapanen or Andreas Johnsson for one of the Hurricane defensemen would work. Justin Faulk would probably be the most likely to be moved.

However, there are a few other names that are very interesting and could be available. Jared Spurgeon and Jonas Brodin from the Wild appear. I don’t know the Wild’s appetite for trading either of those players but they could probably move one of the two in exchange for a more cost controlled forward. I don’t think this is overly likely but Spurgeon in exchange for Marincin or Ozhiganov and Johnsson could be an interesting move.

The two names I would be most intrigued with for the Maple Leafs are the Los Angeles Kings’ Jake Muzzin and the Philadelphia Flyers’ Radko Gudas. The Kings are likely going to tear things down and the Flyers could be looking to shake things up. Muzzin likely will cost a high pick and a prospect. Maybe Kapanen or Johnsson would work in a one for one swap for Muzzin but both teams might be interested in sending future assets to Los Angeles. Muzzin comes with a very reasonable $4M cap hit for this season and the next. Gudas comes with only a $3.35M cap hit over the same time period as Muzzin. Gudas, of course, comes with plenty of baggage but has been surprisingly effective when not taking cheap shots on his opponents. I think Gudas could be acquired without losing a current key roster player. Connor Brown could be someone Philadelphia might be interested in and I think the Leafs would be ok to move him.

If I were running the Maple Leafs, I would make a strong run for one of Muzzin or Gudas as my goal would be to find someone who could be acquired while keeping as many current roster players as possible. I also like the idea of acquiring someone who is signed next season to a very reasonable cap hit as this offseason is going to be a cap squeeze for Toronto.

Predicted Trade: Toronto acquires Jake Muzzin with the Kings retaining 50% of the salary in exchange for a 2019 1^stround pick, 2020 second round pick, and a mid-level prospect

Buffalo Sabres

Potential Need: A second or third line player that will help drive offense

The Sabres are one of the most surprising teams this season. They are loaded with young players and were expected to improve but not quite at the rate they have. Barring a major collapse, the Sabres should be back in the playoffs for the first time in seven years. Not only are the currently one of the top teams NHL teams, their AHL affiliate, the Rochester Americans are also at the top of the standings and boast some impressive young talent as well. Expanding things further, the Sabres have one of the highest regarded farm systems in the league. They also own four first-round draft picks in the next two drafts, including one from the St. Louis Blues that is protected this year but would become unprotected next year. In short, the Sabres have the assets to make moves if they desire. I wouldn’t expect Jason Botterill to push all his chips into the center of the table but he might be willing to move some.

Potential Targets:

With the Sabres being well positioned to be a consistent contender for years to come, I’m not sure they will be looking for short-term additions. However, I think they should and will strongly consider adding someone who can play a second/third-line role but has some term on their contract. The Sabres will have some serious money coming off their books each of the next few offseasons. However, they will hope to be shelling out big money for Jeff Skinner, Sam Reinhart, Rasmus Dahlin, Casey Mittelstadt, Tage Thompson, Lawrence Pilut, Alex Nylander, and Brenden Guhle. I say the Sabres hope they will have to shell out big money for those players because that will mean all of them will have reached near star potential. Obviously, that is unlikely to happen but it certainly has to be a consideration. Regardless, the Sabres need to be mindful that in two to three seasons, they could have multiple $9M – $11M cap hits on their books. The salary cap is rising but adding players with significant term might handicap the team down the road. Instead, they should be looking at players with two to three years remaining. In terms of on-ice performance, I looked for players who improved their teams’ offensive performance when they are on the ice. The numbers I looked at were relative shots % and relative expected goals for %. They are ninth worst generating 52 shots per game and fifth worst with an expected goals for of 51, respectively.

The list of players who fit these criteria is extensive but many are players who will never be traded. Additionally, there is likely going to be plenty of competition for the players who could be traded from this list and that could drive the price up. The Sabres might decide that the price is ultimately too high and stand pat. If they do decide to make a move, I have a couple of targets that could make a lot of sense. I have heard the name, Brayden Schenn thrown around plenty of times as a potential target for the Sabres. He would certainly be near the top of my list if I were in charge and I would look to give St. Louis their 1^stround pick back. I think it could also take another higher pick or a mid to high-level prospect, like Brenden Guhle. Jaden Schwartz is another Blue player that fits the bill. Both players have cap hits just over $5M with Schenn having this season and next remaining while Schwartz has an additional season.

I don’t think a trade with the Blues happens without St. Louis getting their first-round pick back. If the Sabres decide that is an asset that they would rather hold on to because of the possibility of it becoming a high pick, there are four other players that I like a lot as a fit for the Sabres. They are the Los Angeles Kings’ Tyler Toffoli ($4.6M, 2 years), New Jersey Devils’ Kyle Palmieri ($4.65M, 3 years), and Minnesota Wild’s Nino Niederreiter ($5.25M cap hit, 4 years) and Mikael Granlund ($5.75M, 2 years). I have heard another Wild player, Charlie Coyle connected to the Sabres. He did not meet my criteria. Out of those four names, Toffoli makes the most sense, in my opinion. I like Niederreiter a lot as a player and he would bea solid addition to the Sabres’ middle six as a possession driving player. The term and cap hit would be a concern and I don’t see Minnesota overly interested in retaining salary unless the Sabres make it worth it. I think the Kings would be very interested in Brenden Guhle as he would add some much-needed speed to their blue line. It would probably take him in addition to a first-round pick to start conversations. Tage Thompson could also be of interest to them, but I’m not sure Buffalo would be willing to trade him just yet. I think a trade with the Wild would have to start with Alex Nylander and the Devils would be interested in him as well. Victor Olofsson could also be of interest to any of these teams as he could develop into a lethal power play weapon. The Wild would also want someone who could come in and help them immediately as well. Maybe a player like Evan Rodrigues fits that bill.

Predicted Trade: Buffalo acquires Brayden Schenn and retains 10% of cap hit in exchange for St. Louis’s 2019 first round pick, Brenden Guhle, CJ Smith, and Matt Moulson and retains 10% of cap hit.

Boston Bruins

Potential Need: Special Team Help

The Bruins’ biggest need is probably a magic wand to keep all their players healthy. Since that’s not possible, we will look at the power play and penalty kill. Boston has an expected goal for on the power play of 16, which ranks 22^ndout of 31 in the NHL. They also have been expected to allow 22 goals against on the penalty kill which only trails Anaheim and Detroit. A healthy Patrice Bergeron will certainly help but a player who can add some depth and contribute on special teams would be a smart add for the Bruins who, when healthy, should be able to contend with the best in the NHL.

Potential Targets:

Although this player has not killed penalties yet this season, he has been successful in past times in his career. Additionally, he is a player that is has been on the ice for more expected power play goals than the Bruins have generated. He also is a veteran player with no years remaining on his contract and has been a quality depth player for much of his career. That player in Brian Boyle. The Bruins could certainly use some help at bottom six center and Boyle would also improve their special teams. The only concern is whether he will have the physical ability to play all penalty kill, power play, and 5v5 play.

Finding someone to help their power play, based on my criteria, will be difficult as many of the players aren’t likely to be traded. However, I think there a few interesting options that could improve their penalty kill and their bottom six depth. Ironically, former Bruin, Tim Schaller, and current Canuck, is one of those players. Additionally, the Sabres’ Zemgus Girgensons and Vladimir Sobotka, the Canucks’ Markus Granlund, Ben Hutton, Tyler Motte, the Devils’ Blake Coleman, and the Rangers’ Jesper Fast all appear. I don’t think the Sabres would help the Bruins but that still leaves plenty of options. I like Fast best of those options.

Predicted Trade: Bruins acquire Brian Boyle in exchange for a third-round pick

Montreal Canadiens

Potential Need: Better goaltending

The Canadiens have been having a quietly solid season, especially when you look at some of their “beyond the box score numbers.” Their biggest problem is they are giving up 10 more goals than expected. That can’t happen when they are paying a goalie $10.5M. They really need Carey Price to play at a higher level. However, like Tampa, their bigger problem is their backup, Antti Niemi, who is giving up six more goals than expected. Although it would not be ideal to commit more salary cap space to goalies, the team is in fairly decent shape when it comes to their salary cap so they could look to add someone who would be a more reliable backup for a couple years.

Potential Targets:

Here, I will direct you to reread the targets for the Lightning as I think many of the same should be on the Canadiens’ radar. Since I have the Lightning acquiring Nilsson, I will predict the Canadiens hone in on Brian Elliott. However, I think it could also be smart for the Canadiens to stand pat and roll with their current roster. They probably aren’t quite talented enough across the board to make a serious run this year and being patient and letting their young players develop might be the smart play.

PredictedTrade: Canadiens acquire Brian Elliott in exchange for a third-round pick and Antti Niemi

Let us know your thoughts on Twitter (@afpanalytics) and be sure to follow us as we work our way through the other divisions

Next Up: A look at the Metro division

Statistics courtesy of Corsica.hockey and contract data courtesy of capfriendly.com.

KYLE STICH is the Director of AFP Analytics.  In addition, Mr. Stich is a tax specialist and Director of Operations at AFP Consulting LLC, whose clientele include professional athletes performing services on three separate continents. Mr. Stich earned his Master of Science in Sport Management with a Concentration in Sport Analytics from Columbia University in 2017. He earned his undergraduate degrees in Accounting and Sport Management from St. John Fisher College in 2015, where he has served as an adjunct professor teaching Sport Finance and Baseball Analytics.

Sam Reinhart San Jose Sharks 1st Period Breakdown

Anyone who follows me knows I am an unabashed fan of the way Sam Reinhart  (#23) plays hockey. I think the Sabres made a big mistake in not signing Reinhart to a long-term contract this offseason. You can read my thoughts on bridge contracts here and Sam Reinhart’s contract specifically here. I know there are many Sabre fans and even media members who cover the team that would strongly disagree with me on the value of Reinhart. Many people question if he is a borderline bust, considering he was a second overall pick and hasn’t produced eye popping box score statistics, especially when considering Leon Draisitl went one pick behind Reinhart. Will Reinhart end up being the second best player in the 2014 draft? Probably not. Is the selection of Sam Reinhart one that was a major miss by general manager (GM) Tim Murray? Not at all. Throughout his career, there will always be questions over how good Reinhart is. This post will break down plays from the first period of the Sabres-Sharks game from November 27th that will show why I am high on Sam Reinhart.

Shift #1

The Sabres got off to a rough start in this game, getting hemmed in their own zone and their top line was in danger of getting caught on the ice for more than a minute until a few subtle but tremendous plays in succession from Reinhart. Let’s start with the first play here. The Sharks are cycling the puck effectively and most of the Sabres are starting to float to the same side of the ice. The Sabres could be prone to one of the Shark defensemen sneaking in for a backdoor play. Reinhart recognizes the wide open ice and moves from his right-wing position to fill the gap where the left defenseman would traditionally cover. I don’t want to blame anyone for a blown assignment because I don’t know the coverage the defenders are asked to play. Maybe this coverage is in line with how the Sabres want to play. After Reinhart drops back to fill the gap, he begins to step up as the play moves to the left (far) side of the ice, quickly working his way into the passing lane. As he moves into the passing lane, he gets his stick on the puck to tap the puck forward and break up the Sharks’ cycle.

The play does not end there. After Reinhart taps the puck forward he quickly moves to recover the puck himself. However, what I love most about this play is what Reinhart does after recovering the puck. Reinhart has a few options. 1) Chip the puck out of the zone. 2 ) Try to flip the puck down the ice. 3) Attempt to skate the puck out of the zone.  4) Make the play he did, which was by far the smartest play. After recovering the puck, Reinhart is headed up ice. He easily could’ve chipped the puck out of the zone and the Sabres would’ve gotten one fresh body on the ice but the Sabres would have lost possession and the Sharks would’ve likely reentered the zone against four tired Sabres. Although this play could’ve been ok, and it’s a play a lot of players would’ve likely made, it isn’t the best player in this situation. The next option is to flip it farther and hope it doesn’t make it down the ice for an icing. It’s probably a 50-50 play whether it results in an icing or not. If it works, the team gets everyone changed and the Sharks get possession to attempt to make it up the ice. If it fails, the Sabres have four tired players and a defensive zone draw to deal with. This is the other play most players would likely try to make in that situation. Option three is a non-starter as the Shark player (it looks like it Erik Karlsson) is quickly bearing down on Reinhart and it would have caused a turnover.

The play Reinhart ultimately made was phenomenal. He recognized that his team needed a change and his other options would likely give the Sharks possession and probably keep some of his tired teammates and himself on the ice to face another Shark onslaught. As Reinhart was about to clear the zone, he turns back and away from the bearing down Karlsson with the puck and skates behind his own net with another Shark hounding him. Reinhart doesn’t panic as he works his way behind the net and neatly flips a pass behind him, off the boards to his teammate, Rasmus Ristolainen. This play allows Ristolainen and the Sabres to maintain possession, complete the change and then work the puck up the ice on their own terms.

Shift #2

On Reinhart’s second shift, the Sabres once again found themselves in their own zone. Here Reinhart makes a nice play along the boards to help the Sabres breakout and move the puck up the ice. One of the aspects I like most about Sam Reinhart’s game is his ability to find space and become a target for his teammates to make a breakout pass. This first play I am highlighting is an example of that. Reinhart positions himself along the boards and takes the pass and carries the puck and then chips it deep into the Sharks’ zone. It looks like the Sabres will lose possession but….

Reinhart makes a neat little poke check on Sharks’ defenseman Erik Karlsson that squirts the puck over to Jeff Skinner.  Skinner moves the puck back to the point, allowing Beaulieu to launch an absolute bomb on goal that Sharks’ goalie, Martin Jones, makes a good save on. Reinhart doesn’t end up with any point since the Sabres don’t score, but this is one of many examples of plays that Reinhart makes that help to drive the Sabres’ offense.

Shift #3

This shift sees Reinhart starting his shift in the defensive zone. The puck ends up popping high into the corner. Reinhart is, of course, the first player to the puck and knocks it down and moves it to his teammate, Johan Larsson (#22), who then moves it to the defenseman. This play allows the Sabres to dictate the play in their own end and eventually work the puck out of the zone.

Later in this shift, Reinhart makes a peak Reinhart play. Here, the Sabres hold the puck in the Sharks’ end by firing the hard around the boards. Reinhart could take one of three paths. 1) Try to cut the puck off by going to the far side of the net. 2) Follow the defender and attempt to play the body. 3) Anticipate where the defender is going to move the puck and get in the passing/clearing lane. As you can see, he chose the third option and stole the puck to help the Sabres continue their zone possession in the offensive zone. I absolutely love seeing hockey plays like this. It is so subtle but so impressive in seeing someone with elite hockey sense make a play like this.

Shift #4

This was an absolutely incredible shift from Sam Reinhart that ends with a near goal that would’ve been on highlight reels across the US and Canada. Let’s start with maybe the two most important plays Reinhart made this shift, both happening in quick succession and shown in the same gif below. The play starts promising with Sabre defenseman Jake McCabe (#19) looking to start an offensive zone cycle. But McCabe passes behind Reinhart with three Sharks ready to break up ice. If Reinhart doesn’t get a piece of the puck, the Sharks are going to streak up ice for a glorious scoring chance. Although Reinhart isn’t able to maintain possession in the zone he does kick the puck forward enough to prevent the Sharks from getting a clean fast break up ice and it allows himself and Ristolainen to recover and get in position to defend.

As the Sharks move up the ice, Reinhart looks natural playing defense (he did play some in his teenage years) and him and Ristolainen pair to break up the Sharks’ rush and move the puck up ice. Ristolainen gets enough of the puck to force an errant pass that Reinhart scoops up, turns away from the pressuring Shark and passes the puck up ice (though the pass ends up being slightly off). Also, Sabre fans should be excited to see the speed Jack Eichel (#9) shows on the backcheck.

The shift carries on only to see another tremendous play by Reinhart, this time setting up Jack Eichel for a quality scoring chance. Here Reinhart shields the puck while spinning away from the Sharks defender. He then slides a pass between two Shark defenders to a wide-open Jack Eichel. Unfortunately for the Sabres, Eichel is a little too wide and doesn’t have a good angle but it is still a dangerous chance off a fabulous setup.

Reinhart ends this shift with a near goal on a highlight reel play. Anyone who was watching this game probably remembers this play and many others have also likely seen it. I think the play speaks for itself. Here Reinhart shows the skill expected of someone drafted second overall. I will note that Reinhart does a tremendous job once again of finding open space on the ice to give Eichel an open target.

Shift #5

Although this is not Reinhart’s final shift in the game, it is the last shift I am going to highlight a play from. By this point, you probably know what this play is going to involve. Reinhart finds open space on the ice, takes an outlet pass, and makes an insanely awesome cross-ice pass to a streaking Jack Eichel. I’ll let you appreciate the pass.

Conclusions

Although this is a small sampling of hand-picked plays where Reinhart looks good, I think it does serve the purpose of highlighting the types of plays that Reinhart makes on a regular basis. One place where Reinhart needs to continue to improve is his game to game consistentcy. There are definitely games where he does not play at an acceptable level. However, I challenge anyone who only looks at Reinhart’s box score statistics to closely watch Reinhart play shift by shift. The only season in Reinhart’s career that the Sabres have performed worse in terms of shots when he was on the ice was when he played nine games in his “rookie slide” season. Anyone who wants to dismiss what the numbers indicate and want to “watch” the game when evaluating Sam Reinhart, I challenge you to do just that and I hope you appreciate what Sam Reinhart brings to the table and why he was a really solid second overall selection.

Gifs created by Zack Ryan using giphy with video from NHL.tv.

KYLE STICH is the Director of AFP Analytics.  In addition, Mr. Stich is a tax specialist and Director of Operations at AFP Consulting LLC, whose clientele include professional athletes performing services on three separate continents. Mr. Stich earned his Master of Science in Sport Management with a Concentration in Sport Analytics from Columbia University in 2017. He earned his undergraduate degrees in Accounting and Sport Management from St. John Fisher College in 2015, where he has served as an adjunct professor teaching Sport Finance and Baseball Analytics.

Buffalo Sabres, Playoffs?!? Should We Talk About the Playoffs !?!

While I was getting together with my family for Thanksgiving, I was asked if I thought if the Buffalo Sabres were good and if they would make the playoffs. I’m sure my cousins are not the only ones with that question so instead of keeping the discussion to the family get together, I will lay out my thoughts here. Let’s start with the fact that the two questions do not have to be mutually exclusive. The Sabres can make the playoffs without being “good.” Teams can play win enough games against lesser opponents and sneak out some wins against better opponents to sneak into the playoffs. Overtime losses are also a way for teams that aren’t as good to pad their point total. Let’s dig into some of the important metrics that could tell the story of the 2018-2019 Buffalo Sabres. All statistics shown were collected on November 29, 2018 before any games took place that day. For the Sabres, this captures their first 25 games. The statistics only reflect team performance during 5v5 play and were collected from Corsica.Hockey and NaturalStatTrick.com.

Are the Sabres Lucky?

I want to start by dispelling the notion that the Sabres have gotten incredibly fortuitous in their roaring start to the season. Has there been some luck involved? Likely, however, they might be creating some of their own luck. Obviously to win hockey games, you need to score goals and you need to stop goals. Since hockey is played by humans, there is no formula that can perfectly predict whether every initial shot will be a goal or be saved. The puck bounces, sometimes in your favor, sometimes against you. It is expected that these bounces should even out over the course of the season. Because of this, we can look at a measurement called PDO, which adds together save percentage and shooting percentage. We would expect this total to add up to one (or close to it). To visualize where teams stand I have created a graph and shown it below. This graph plots the team shooting percentage on the x axis and the save percentage on the y axis. To show where teams should over time regress to, I have plotted the orange line which shows a PDO of one. We would expect most teams to move toward that line over the course of the season. That does not mean every team will. Some teams will intentionally play a certain style of hockey that lends itself to performing well in one area or another. Some teams will just not have the talent to increase one area or another.

The Sabres are in a good spot here as they are in close proximity to nearly a third of the league and are very close to the orange line. The team is being propelled by a little stronger than expected goaltending so if their play is to drop, I would bet it is because of a few bad bounces against their goaltenders or just bad goals that the goalies should save. You will notice that most of the teams farthest above the orange line are teams with some incredibly talented players either on offense or in goal. Except for the New York Islanders. If I was a fan of them, I might try to remember the good times unless Barry Trotz as the coach is the incredibly talented player.

Many people will talk about the Sabres’ record in one goal games as a reason the team might be headed for some regression. Let’s look to last season as an example of how teams performed in one goal games over the course of the season. Please note, I hand counted these totals so there is a chance I made an error somewhere along the way. Shootout wins and losses are counted. Let me provide you with a few summary statistics so you don’t have to pour over the table. On average, teams played 35 one goal games. Ottawa played the most one goal games last year with 42. New Jersey was second with 41. Toronto and New Jersey won the most with 25 each. Colorado and Minnesota played the least with 25 and 26 respectively. The correlation between “Winning % in 1 Goal Games” and the team’s “Overall Winning %” is .85. There were 16 teams to win at least 50% of their one goal games, 12 of those made the playoffs. To put things simply, teams should expect to have 43% of their games end as a one goal game. The good teams win those games, the bad teams lose them.

 

Team	Total 1 Goal Games	Wins	Losses	Winning % in 1 Goal Games	Overall Winning %
Toronto	38	25	13	0.657894737	0.597560976
Tampa Bay	29	19	10	0.655172414	0.658536585
Nashville	38	24	14	0.631578947	0.646341463
Columbus	37	23	14	0.621621622	0.548780488
Winnipeg	36	22	14	0.611111111	0.634146341
New Jersey	41	25	16	0.609756098	0.536585366
Washington	33	20	13	0.606060606	0.597560976
St. Louis	32	19	13	0.59375	0.536585366
Vegas	38	22	16	0.578947368	0.62195122
Boston	35	20	15	0.571428571	0.609756098
Florida	38	21	17	0.552631579	0.536585366
Calgary	38	21	17	0.552631579	0.451219512
San Jose	31	17	14	0.548387097	0.548780488
Dallas	28	15	13	0.535714286	0.512195122
Pittsburgh	37	19	18	0.513513514	0.573170732
Anaheim	34	17	17	0.5	0.536585366
Edmonton	37	18	19	0.486486486	0.43902439
Minnesota	26	12	14	0.461538462	0.548780488
NY Rangers	35	16	19	0.457142857	0.414634146
Colorado	25	11	14	0.44	0.524390244
Philadelphia	41	18	23	0.43902439	0.512195122
NY Islanders	37	16	21	0.432432432	0.426829268
Los Angeles	33	14	19	0.424242424	0.548780488
Arizona	38	16	22	0.421052632	0.353658537
Montreal	28	11	17	0.392857143	0.353658537
Carolina	39	15	24	0.384615385	0.43902439
Ottawa	42	16	26	0.380952381	0.341463415
Vancouver	29	11	18	0.379310345	0.37804878
Chicago	28	10	18	0.357142857	0.402439024
Buffalo	34	11	23	0.323529412	0.304878049
Detroit	39	11	28	0.282051282	0.365853659

 

Overall in one goal games, the Sabres are 10-2 (.833), with both losses coming in overtime. Carter Hutton is 8-1 this season and last season 10-5 in one goal games (overtime and shootouts included). I think we are past the point where this success is beyond luck. Hutton has to be doing something right to continuously be on the right side of one goal decisions. Can the Sabres maintain the pace they have been in one goal games? It would be unlikely. However, if they are a good team, their success in one goal games does not have to drop off a cliff. The Sabres are on pace to play 39 total one goal games, meaning they should play 27 more. Last season, Toronto played 38 and won 25. Assuming that is close to the best a team can do, the Sabres will likely finish those remaining 27 games with a record around 15-12. If they do that, the will definitely make the playoffs. The question is are the Sabres a good team?

Are the Sabres Good?

Weeeeellllll… The “beyond the boxscore” statistics indicate they might be average. However, if you’re a Sabres’ fan, you should be happy with the team playing average for the rest of the season because that likely gets them into the playoffs where anything can happen. The Sabres are good in some aspects of the game and struggle in others.

What the Sabres do Well

To win hockey games, you have to outscore your opponent. The Sabres are doing that as they have a Goals For % of 52.69%, tenth best in the NHL. Part of the reason they have a positive Goals For % is they have done incredibly well in outscoring opponents in the high danger area on the ice as their High Danger Goals For % is 58.49%. Some will question whether that is sustainable. It will be close. The Sabres’ goalies are currently saving high danger shots at a rate of 86.36%. Hutton’s high danger save percentage (HDsv%) has been 82.65% over the last three seasons. His HDSv% is currently 87.34%. He is likely due for a little regression. Linus Ullmark is the wild card here. He was absolutely phenomenal in this area last year in the AHL. I don’t recall the exact HDSv% he had but it was in the high 80s possibly low 90s. He is currently at 85.37% in the NHL so I wouldn’t expect any regression from him but there is a chance to see some progression. He will likely play a greater percentage of games as the season progresses, so Hutton’s regression might be offset by Ullmark playing more and sustaining or progressing. Further, the team has actually allowed two more goals than expected during 5v5 play and have not been hurt by that. On the penalty kill the Sabres have allowed two less goals than expected, balancing out their 5v5 number. Simply put, I don’t expect a major drop off in the Sabres’ goals against.

Offensively, the Sabres are also performing around expectations. During 5v5 play, they have been expected to score 44 goals. They have scored 49. Could they regress to scoring exactly the same number as they are expected to? Absolutely. However, because of this torrid start, a slight regression will not hurt them. Their expected goals of 44 ranks 17^thin the league, which is three goals below average. Even if the team begins to regress during 5v5 play, they would be expected to progress on the power play where they have been expected to score 19 goals but have actually only scored 16. Much like their goals’ against pace, they currently are playing at a sustainable goals for pace.

If you want to talk yourself into the Sabres being a good team, you could but I’m not confident in going quite that far.

Causes for Concern

I will point to two metrics here that are troubling. During 5v5 play, the Sabres are allowing teams to take more shots than they are taking and based on expected goal metrics are expected to be outscored. The Sabres currently rank 20^thin Corsi For % (Shots For %) with a rate of 49.05%. They also rank 18^thin expected goals % (xGF%). How likely are the Sabres to stay in the race for the President’s Trophy if they keep their metrics at the current level? Not very. Does this mean they won’t make the playoffs? Not at all. Does it mean they can’t improve their metrics to be in the top half of the league? Nope.

Some of you are probably wondering why this matters since the Sabres have shown they can win games despite struggling in these metrics. Well let’s put it this way. Let’s say you are playing Blackjack and you keep hitting on 15 and 16 and not busting. Are you going to continue hitting on 15 and 16 and expect the same outcome? I would hope not unless you are utilizing some skill like “counting cards.” Maybe the Sabres have their equivalent of counting card, in that they figured something out to sustain their success. However, just like constantly hitting on 15 and 16 will likely come back to bite you at some point, the Sabres are likely to have their recent level of play come back and bite them.

The metrics indicate that the Sabres are likely to start losing games if they continue playing as they are. Most teams that make the playoffs finish in the top half of the league in some of the metrics I have discussed above. However, I think there are multiple reasons to believe that the Sabres can actually improve their metrics to match their current point total. The top five teams in Corsi For % are Carolina, Vegas, San Jose, Calgary, and Tampa. The Sabres have played six of their 25 games against those teams. Three more of the Sabres’ games have been against the sixth best team, Montreal. Nine games have also come against teams with lower Corsi For %s than the Sabres. The break down for xGF% is similar.

Some of you are probably thinking back to what I discussed in the previous section and think I am overreacting to their poor metrics. Maybe you’re right. However, if game after game the Sabres are constantly being outperformed as the metrics indicate, their expected goals for will start to slow and their expected goals against will climb quicker. That is not a formula for success. Think of it this way: If every game the Sabres allow three more shots and take three fewer shots, they might not be hurt in that game but let’s say hypothetically every nine shots leads to a goal. Now every three or so games they are likely allowing an extra goal and not scoring an additional goal. That will lead to them losing an additional game and now instead of winning two out of three games, they are losing two out of three games. For a team that likely only needs to average a point per game going forward, a scenario like our hypothetical could lead to things being closer than they should be.

The Sabres should be able to benefit from playing some weaker opponents which will start to happen after their December 4^thgame against Toronto. If the Sabres finish the calendar year still keeping pace with the top teams in points and have not moved either of their CF% or xGF% above 50%, I would be shocked. The only way I can see that happening is if they race out to massive leads and then completely stop playing for two-thirds of the game. They likely will see their metrics uptick or their point total downtick.

Ok Great But What Does This Mean For The Playoffs

There are two complete wild cards that I need to bring up before we talk about the playoffs. First, the Sabres have been relatively healthy this season, having very few of their important players miss games with injury. Injuries are going to start to happen. If their key players can avoid them, the team should be fine. If the Sabres’ depth players start to get bit by the injury bug, that could even be to their benefit. Some of the players currently playing in the AHL are probably better than some of the depth players. However, it makes little sense to recall their young players to only play them in a limited fourth line role when they can play top minutes and win in the AHL. The same goes for the defense, although outside of Marco Scandella (and to a lesser extent Rasmus Ristolainen) most of the defenders have actually played pretty well. Goaltending is the only place where I would be seriously concerned if they needed to rely on players in the AHL.

The other factor to consider is how the younger players continue to play as the season goes on. Lately, Rasmus Dahlin, Casey Mittelstadt, and Tage Thompson have been playing incredibly well and showing continued signs of improvement. If that continues, the team could be incredibly scary. However, there is also the possibility that the grind of the long season could cause them to hit a wall. I would anticipate Dahlin to continue to grow. The other two players could go either way.

Simply put, the Sabres would have to have a monumental collapse at this point to not make the playoffs. They have banked enough points early on that basically will require them to average around a point a game for the rest of the season to make the playoffs. With the ability to get a point in overtime and considering the fact the Sabres are at worst an average team, it would be a complete shock to not see them in the playoffs and once they get in there is no telling how far they could go.

Stats courtesy of Corsica.hockey and Naturalstattrick.com. Image courtesy of indystar.com

KYLE STICH is the Director of AFP Analytics.  In addition, Mr. Stich is a tax specialist and Director of Operations at AFP Consulting LLC, whose clientele include professional athletes performing services on three separate continents. Mr. Stich earned his Master of Science in Sport Management with a Concentration in Sport Analytics from Columbia University in 2017. He earned his undergraduate degrees in Accounting and Sport Management from St. John Fisher College in 2015, where he has served as an adjunct professor teaching Sport Finance and Baseball Analytics.

Dear NHL Teams: Burn The Bridge Contract

INTRO

The National Hockey League (NHL) is changing with a greater emphasis on speed and skill and that is being provided by younger players. Teams are building younger rosters than ever before and looking for significant contributions from their young players early on. With this trend, it is more critical than ever for teams to properly manage their young players from a contract perspective.

Players typically enter the league between the age of 18 and 21 on a three-year entry-level contract (ELC). This means the player will sign their second contract between the ages of 21-24. For our work, we will ignore players who entered the league at age 18 because those players are typically fantastic players like Connor McDavid, Jack Eichel or Auston Matthews. There is no doubt these players will be receiving 8-year deals as their second contract. The focus instead is on the players who enter the league between 19 and 21, with a narrowed focus on 19 and 20. This means that they will be up for the second contract at age 22 or 23 and they figure to be candidates for a bridge type contract (a two or three-year contract signed by a restricted free agent (RFA) that expires while the player is still a RFA) or a long-term deal (a contract that will cover some of the player’s unrestricted free agent (UFA) years).

When a player’s ELC expires, we believe it is the most critical decision point a team must make in regards to that player. It certainly goes against the mindset most statisticians have as teams would be making their most important decisions based on a maximum of three seasons of NHL data. At this critical decision point, we believe the team has three options. They can sign a player to a long-term contract, sign them to a short-term contract, or trade the player. Rarely are players traded at this point in their careers because they can be under team control at a low cost. Simply put, players are likely going to be negotiating their second contract with the team that drafted them.

In traditional negotiations, teams will likely discuss both short-term and long-term deals with a player and their agent. By even offering a short-term deal the teams are giving leverage to the agents. A short-term offer does not buy any UFA years and allows the player to bet on themselves. What will become apparent as we work our way through the numbers is when teams push for the bridge contract, they are in fact betting a player has peaked or plateaued, meaning they don’t expect the player to get any better. If those are their thoughts on the player, they should look to trade the player as their value will never be higher. Too often, teams look at a player’s past performance rather than what their future value to the team would be. This philosophy is likely one of the reasons teams hesitate to give long-term contracts off the bat. As an aside, this is where a team should be leaning on their analysts to look at trends and determine how they expect the player to progress. The following tweet from Travis Yost demonstrates this point:

In short, any short-term offer made by a team is giving away the leverage they have over the restricted free agent player. By following the status quo teams continue to make these types of mistakes at the critical decision point.

GETTING TO THE BREAKEVEN POINT

This research revolves around the acceptance of the following premise: When a player and team are going to negotiate the second contract, there will be discussions of both a short-term contract (We will refer to this as Contract A) and a long-term contract (We will refer to this as Contract B). Once Contract A expires, and now the team wants to commit to the player long-term, they will offer them Contract C.  The premise that must be accepted is in all situations: Contract’s C AAV > Contract B’s AAV > Contract A’s AAV. The following graphic serves of a visualization of how Contract A, B, & C are connected. For the purposes of this discussion, we have stuck with an eight-year window, with Contract A being equal to two years. We can assess this premise for all different contract lengths using the same approach, but to keep things simpler we will stick with the eight-year length for the majority of this discussion.

TIME VALUE OF MONEY

There is a theory in finance that one dollar today is worth more than one dollar in the future because of the ability to invest that dollar and because of inflation. Let’s use buying a candy bar as an example. In a year from now, you know you are going to want a candy bar. You walk into the store with a dollar in your wallet and see that today you can buy that candy bar for exactly one dollar. If you decide to buy it today and save it for one year from now, you are assured of having your candy bar (though old, likely still good). However, maybe you don’t like the idea of buying a candy bar today and saving it for a year so instead, you decide that you are going to save your money to buy it a year from now. Being the finance guru you are, you assume the rate of inflation will be around 3%, meaning in one year that candy bar will cost $1.03. This means if you keep that dollar in your wallet for a year, you will no longer be able to buy that candy bar! Since you know the candy bar will cost more in the future, you know you must invest your dollar to make it worth more in one year. You go to the bank and open a candy bar account that you invest your dollar in. It will return 5%, meaning in one year, your candy bar account will have $1.05. Hurray! This will give you enough money to buy your candy bar!

Now that we understand the premise of the time value of money, we must accept another premise. Because we have established that a dollar is more valuable today, a team’s goal should be to minimize a player’s cap hit in today’s dollars. That means every contract scenario should be converted to today’s dollars using the present value (PV) formula (PV = Future Dollar Amount/(1+salary cap inflation rate)^number of years from today). In our calculations, we have used a salary cap inflation rate of 4.59%, the average increase over the past five years. What this does not necessarily mean is a team should not look to give a player a bridge contract because it will come with the lowest immediate cost.

CALCULATING THE BREAKEVEN POINT

Now that we have established our assumptions that we must accept as true, we can delve into some math. Since we previously established that Contract C > Contract B > Contract A, we will look at this formula: Contract A * (1+X%) = Contract B * (1+Y%) =Contract C. Since Contracts A & B are likely to be known during negotiations, X% is a known variable. We want to solve for Y% so that PV(Contract A) + PV(Contract C) = PV(Contract B). This can be thought of as a minimization problem where Y% cannot be less than 0. When solving for Y%, while changing X%, we were able to produce the following graph, which shows the relationship between the two variables.

Interpreting the results

Once we determined Contract C by arriving at the breakeven point, it was critical to be able to understand what the results tell us. By finding Contract C, we now knew what the cap hit for the player would have to be to have an equal net present value when compared to Contract B. This is where proper player analysis comes into play. At this point, the team needs to ask themselves: “Do we think this player will get more or less than the cap hit determined when solving for Contract C?” If the answer is less, then the team should go short-term. If the answer is more, the team should go long-term. One key point to consider is the expected salary cap inflation. For example, a player commanding a $5M cap hit today would command a salary of $5.469M in two years. This means if you expect the player to perform exactly the same for two more seasons you cannot expect Contract C to be less than the rate of inflation (less than $5.469 in our simple example). In essence, if you calculate Contract C to be less than the rate of inflation and accept that as a possibility, you are betting your player will regress! In that case, I would recommend trading that player.

CASE STUDY: WILLIAM NYLANDER

Let’s take all this theory and apply it to an example. Here we will focus on William Nylander. We wanted to take the pulse of hockey fans to see if their thoughts aligned with what our financial math says. As you can see by our poll results, fans think the Toronto Maple Leafs should sign Nylander to a long-term contract.

Frankly, the fans are right and the Leafs should only be looking to sign Nylander to a long-term deal, and the longer the term the better. We estimated that a short-term deal for Nylander would carry a $4.3M AAV over two years and a long-term option could be $7M per year for 8 years. If Nylander signed a two-year contract (Contract A) the next 6-year contract (Contract C) with an AAV of roughly $8M to meet the breakeven point. The breakdown of these contract schedules is shown below.

This is where the team must answer the critical question. If Nylander signs short term, would his next contact exceed $8M? If the team thinks that the player will cost more than $8M the best option is to sign long-term. If they think the player could be signed for less than $8M, then a bridge deal would be the better option. However, looking at the potential savings, we feel that long-term is a no-brainer here, especially when looking at the cap situation the Leafs find themselves in. By signing Nylander to a long-term deal the team would save nearly $1M in cap space in years 3-8. The $1M in savings would be the minimum the team would save, it is reasonable to think that Nylander could sign for more than $8M (in two years) if he continues developing.

A General Manager in favor of the bridge deal would look at the price in the first two years of the contract and say the two years at the beginning of the contract opens enough cap space to make a bridge deal worthwhile. We do not believe that to be the case, instead, we feel that this is how teams find themselves in bad cap situations when they are truly ready to compete for the Stanley Cup (or closes their cup window sooner). The difference is $2.7M greater in the first two years ($5.4M total), however, we would argue that the six years of savings ($6M total) will have the greater impact. The team will be right in the middle of being a Cup contender and those savings could be used to upgrade the bottom six forwards or it could turn a $3M player into a $4M player. The Maple Leafs may feel a little cap crunch next offseason but combining the potential long-term Nylander savings with the potential Mitch Marner long-term savings (next offseason) and the Maple Leafs could set themselves up with a four to five-year cup window.

While it may seem like a no-brainer to lock up Nylander long-term there are several reasons that teams do not lock players up long-term as soon as possible. The most obvious reason is the fact that bridge contracts are the status quo for most players. The NHL, like many other leagues, is a copycat league so if teams are giving out bridge deals there will be a hesitation to dramatically change the way business is done.

However, we think that there are two other reasons that work hand in hand with each other. General managers (GMs) are risk averse, they generally run their teams as if this season could be their last. If a GM handed out long-term contracts to players who consistently don’t perform and are forced to buy-out the players or trade them for cents on the dollar, he would be crushed in the media and fans would quickly turn against the GM, which will likely result in ownership turning on them as well.

We will explain why the fear of the buyout is misguided but the stigma around buyouts is certainly real and it is something that no GM would want to deal with. The GMs are focused on keeping their job year in and year out, a two-year bridge contract minimizes the current cap hit and any cap issues that will arise in two years are pushed to the back burner. The GM will either cross that bridge when he gets to it, or the contracts will be a problem for a different GM altogether. We feel that if GMs were to look more into the future when negotiating contracts with restricted free agents their respective teams would be much better at managing the salary cap.

LOOKING AT THE BUYOUT

There is a unique collective bargain agreement (CBA) clause that essentially builds a bridge contract into a young player’s long-term contract. If a player is under 26 years old, the team has the ability to buy the player out the player at one-third the cost of the remaining contract versus two-thirds of the cost once they turn 26 years old. The cost is spread equally over double the remaining term of the contract. Let’s look at a quick example. Two players each have four years and $20M remaining on their contract. One player is under 26 and the other is over 26. Both players will count against the salary cap for eight additional years. However, the younger player will only have a cap hit of $833,333.33 while the older player will count for $1,666,666.67. A place of future study is to look at the relationship between the buyout cost and the cap savings of going with a long-term contract instead of a bridge deal. The real question to answer though is how likely is a buyout to take place?

Probability of a Buyout

The burning question everyone wants to know is how likely is a team going to want to exercise a buyout? To answer that question, we need to accept the following as true: A team will only exercise a buyout of a young player if they see regression in consecutive seasons. This bears the questions, how likely is that to occur? The simple answer is not likely.

To determine that the probability of a buyout is unlikely we utilized simulation to determine the probability of a player regressing in two consecutive seasons. We started by gathering data on every player that was 23 years old in the 2014 season. Those players also had to have played (at least 200 minutes of time on ice) in the NHL for the next two seasons as well; they were divided into forwards and defense. We then determined the average performance and standard deviation for the sample for each age (23, 24, 25) and ran a Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 instances) with a normal distribution. This was done for Corsi For%, Time on Ice per Game, Goals per 60, First Assists per 60, Total Points per 60, and Individual Corsi For per 60. All statistics are courtesy of NaturalStattrick.com. These stats sought to best capture a player’s individual performance. The results of the simulation are shown in the table below.

To simply interpret the results of the simulation, there is approximately a two in ten chance of a team potentially wanting to buyout a young player. Another way to look at it is a team would expect to exercise a buyout on two out of every ten young players. If the team is smart and properly projects the player’s career (finds indicators that the player has already peaked or soon will peak), the team could trade those players that they expect to regress and avoid handing out any buyouts. They could also utilize a bridge deal but that seems less favorable if they think the player will get worse. It is important to acknowledge that even if a player does progress or regress in the statistics we have assessed, it does not necessarily mean the team will want to exercise a buyout as there are certainly other factors to consider. Even if the team is wrong two out of ten times and exercises the buyout twice in ten contracts, they are probably going to end up ahead in terms of cap hit in present value if they hand out exclusively long-term contracts opposed to bridging and then going long-term. This is another area where we will likely do further research.

Looking at Older Players

Another important consideration when discussing a long-term versus bridge contract is the back end of the contract. Some people might argue that using the bridge contract is favorable because it will allow a team to potentially keep the player longer as they can sign the player for two to three years, retain their RFA rights, then sign them to a long-term contract, which could give the team nine, ten, or eleven years of service from the player without having to worry about the player becoming an unrestricted free agent. However, keeping a player for those extra years might actually be to the detriment of the team. To support this point, we once again looked to simulation. This time instead of looking at players at age 23, we looked at players age 30 and repeated our process detailed above instead looking at those players who were 30, 31, and 32. We sought to determine the probability of a player getting worse.

Much like you would be betting against the odds of a young player regressing in two consecutive seasons, you would be going against the odds in thinking a player going from age 30 to 31 to 32 is not going to see a drop in play. Betting an older player is going to maintain their level or even improve is a bet I wouldn’t make. The table below supports this notion.

CASE STUDY: SAM REINHART

The Buffalo Sabres have a very tough decision to make when it comes to Sam Reinhart. Reinhart’s underlying numbers indicate he is a quality player, but his career has seen extreme swings. The 2017-2018 season saw Reinhart struggle mightily for the first half of the season and then in the second half of the season showed the abilities expected of a player drafted second overall. This poll we ran shows the opinion of him are mixed as well.

Below are the tables showing two possible Reinhart contract schedules. The numbers calculated for Contract A and Contract B are based on our market value model. If you think the numbers are way off, our apologies. We will likely write an article when Reinhart’s contract is signed to assess the Sabres’ decision.

Though we have detailed this point many times, it is critical to once again emphasize that the contract shown in the blue is the breakeven contract. This means that based off of our numbers by offering Reinhart this bridge deal, the Sabres think his next contract would not exceed $5.765M. This is probably not a smart bet to make. Purely due to inflation, it would be expected that Reinhart’s $5.2M long-term contract today (~6.5% of the salary cap) would be equal to ~$5.7M in two years. This basically means if Reinhart performs at the same level as he has, the Sabres wouldn’t be able to sign him to less than the breakeven point. In order for the Sabres to save money in today’s dollars, Sam Reinhart would have to get worse! If that is the bet the team is making, they probably should’ve traded Reinhart this offseason.

CASE STUDY: NIKITA KUCHEROV

For our last case study, we decided to look at a situation that has already played out. Nikita Kucherov recently signed an 8-year extension with a $9.5M cap hit. Prior to signing his extension, the Lightning signed Kucherov to a 3-year bridge deal with a cap hit of 4.76M. At the time of signing the reaction to the contract was that Yzerman did well to minimize the cap hit but observers were not blind to the salary cap issues that could arise when the contract would end. We decided to investigate whether the bridge was the right deal for Tampa to make.

The total present value of the 11 years is roughly $67M. We wanted to figure out what the breakeven number was for the Lightning if the team opted to sign Kucherov to an 8-year extension right away. The number we calculated is $7.5M. This means if the Lightning could have signed Kucherov to an 8-year extension for $7.5M or less they made a mistake in bridging Kucherov. However, if Kucherov would have cost more than the $7.5M then the bridge was the right choice. The summer prior to Kucherov signing his extension Ryan O’Reilly and Vladimir Tarasenko signed long-term deals with $7.5M cap hits. Hindsight is 20/20 and locking up Kucherov at $7.5M would look like a steal now but at the time it seems reasonable that Yzerman could have negotiated a contract for somewhere around that number, especially when Johnny Gaudreau signed for less than $7M over 6 years.

The first 8 years is only the beginning of the questions that need to be asked. The final 3 years of the 11 would require Kucherov to sign another contract. We already discussed how likely it is for players to decline in their level of play once they turn 30. It is easy to argue that Kucherov is better than most players, so it is more than likely that he will still be playing well once he does turn 30. The question then becomes, would Tampa Bay be willing to pay $95M over at least the next 3 years to make the present value even with what happened. Of course, they would be, because they made the commitment to Kucherov. We would argue that by signing long-term initially the team would be in a better spot once year 9 comes around. The largest contract ever given to a 30-year-old would equate to a $9.5M dollar cap hit when Kucherov would be up for his next deal in our hypothetical situation. We have included tables to show the two possibilities below.

If the Lightning had decided to sign Kucherov long-term initially they would have created $2M of cap space for 5 seasons. For a team as good as Tampa, every dollar counts, and that money could have changed the way they approached this offseason and future offseasons. The immediate counter-argument is that the team did not have the cap space at the time of signing to offer Kucherov $7.5M. We would argue that any GM looking forward would move current bad contracts to sign Kucherov. Using bad contracts to justify another questionable contract decision is a lousy excuse and continue to perpetuate the problem.

CONCLUSION

With the NHL trending younger than ever, proper management of younger assets has become more critical than ever. We think a team who properly manages young assets can build a perennial contender for many years. Observers often talk about capitalizing on a stud young player’s entry-level contract, but often times teams who draft those stud young are not in a position to turn around their futures that quickly. Although there will never be more value than when a player is on an ELC, teams can create value by signing players to long-term contracts in lieu of short-term deals. One issue many championship teams run into is they have a quality player or two that end up being salary cap casualties. By properly managing five young players, a team should be looking at upwards of $10M in additional salary cap space! That is enough room to pay two quality players or one borderline superstar!

We will continue to update our bridge contract analysis in future posts. Please follow us on Twitter (@afpanalytics) so you know when those are up.

Banner image courtesy of: https://www.theodysseyonline.com/burning-bridges-2016

KYLE STICH is the Director of AFP Analytics.  In addition, Mr. Stich is a tax specialist and Director of Operations at AFP Consulting LLC, whose clientele include professional athletes performing services on three separate continents. Mr. Stich earned his Master of Science in Sport Management with a Concentration in Sport Analytics from Columbia University in 2017. He earned his undergraduate degrees in Accounting and Sport Management from St. John Fisher College in 2015, where he has served as an adjunct professor teaching Sport Finance and Baseball Analytics.

JUSTIN WHITE is an intern AFP Analytics. Justin is a graduate of St. John Fisher College where he earned his degree in Sport Management and Statistics. He has worked with the Rochester Americans and members of their coaching staff on various analytics and statistics-based projects.

 

NHL Free Agency Predictions and Projections

As NHL free agency inches ever closer we wanted to have a little fun and make some predictions about what we think could transpire over the next few days. We’ve identified five forwards and five defensemen to make some predictions on. Four in each category are unrestricted free agents while the other two are top trade candidates. For the free agents, we have given contract projections that we arrived at using our internal methods (sorry, we won’t be disclosing them at this time). All the team picks are solely our opinions and little to no statistical analysis has been done to come to those predictions. Justin and Kyle came up with their picks completely independently without comparing notes.

John Tavares

Kyle’s Pick: New York Islanders

Contract Prediction: $92.5M over 8 years; $11.56M AAV

Had I been writing this a few weeks ago I might not pick the team I will but the more things develop, the more I think John Tavares stays with the Islanders. The team has stabilized their front office and hired a Stanley Cup winning coach. They just had a tremendous draft and have plenty of cap space to sign Tavares to the contract he commands. Tavares is just too valuable to the Islanders for them to lose him. The team will certainly still have some holes to fill his offseason on their blueline and in net but it will be much easier for the team to draw some talent if Tavares stays. I think the Sharks could be a dark horse here but ultimately Tavares will stay with what he knows.

Justin’s Pick: New York Islanders

John Tavares is arguably the best player to reach free agency in recent memory. If I were Tavares I would look to get out of Long Island. He will be able to handpick his next team and judging on some of the media reports he would be willing to consider teams in California. After the recent moves made the team I think he would fit best on is the San Jose Sharks. The Sharks have the cap space and the young talent that should be enough to attract the best free agent in the class. His speed and skill would blend nicely with a player like Evander Kane. However, I think the fun is not going to happen and Tavares is going to resign and stay a member of the New York Islanders. From what has been made public, Tavares is a very loyal player and the new arena is enticing to him. I hate to take the easy way out, but the Islanders have the cap space and enough young talent to make it worthwhile for Tavares to hang around. A team does not fire its coach and general manager if it does not feel that it has a great chance of holding onto its star player. As teams are making the pitch to Tavares this week, the Islanders will probably be the team to beat.

Paul Stastny

Kyle’s Pick: Colorado Avalanche

Contract Prediction: $24.7M over 4 years; $6.17M AAV

I think Paul Stastny goes full circle and returns to the place where he started his career. The Avalanche have plenty of cap space and could certainly use a boost at center behind Nathan MacKinnon. The team made the playoffs this season and if they want to keep the momentum going next season, they are going to have to add talent to keep pace with the central division arms race. I don’t think a return to the Blues or Jets is out of the question. Going back to the Jets would likely have to be for less money or less term but it might give Stastny the best chance at lifting the cup. I think dollars and term from a contending team win out with Stastny back in Denver.

Justin’s Pick: Colorado Avalanche

If I am Paul Stastny I would do everything in my power to stay in Winnipeg. Stastny is aging and the 32-year-old forward only has a handful of seasons left and the Jets figure to be one of the strongest teams in the league again next season. With that being said, there will be other teams interested in his services. Teams like the Philadelphia Flyers and St. Louis Blues would make sense to sign Stastny. The Flyers could use two-way center to help some of their young forwards and figure to have the space to sign Stastny. Stastny has been asked about a return to the Blues and he did not shoot down the idea. The Blues still feel that they should be a contending team and Stastny is a player that would help the team immediately. The former Blue provides exactly what the Blues are looking for and I would not be surprised to see the Blues in the Stastny sweepstakes. The Canadiens and Avalanche are rumored to be interested in Stastny and my pick is the Avalanche. Stastny started his career in Colorado and now seems like the perfect time to return. The team is stacked with young talent and Stastny could step in and help lead the team into the playoffs for the second straight season.

James Van Riemsdyk

Kyle’s Pick: Dallas Stars

Contract Prediction: $38M over 6 years; $6.3M AAV

James van Riemsdyk has to be the toughest to predict. On one hand, he is probably the second best forward available on the free agent market behind Tavares. On the other hand, there are probably some trade dominoes that could fall between now and July 1^st that could completely change the landscape for JVR. Tavares’s decision could take a potential suitor out of the mix for JVR. Once Tavares makes his decision, you would have to look at what happens with Ryan O’Reilly and Erik Karlsson. Though both players are players at different positions, adding their salaries will likely shift the amount of cap space available. If Buffalo flips O’Reilly for little salary in return, they suddenly have a plethora of cap space with a need on the wing. If a team trades for O’Reilly or Karlsson, they will likely be committing too much cap space to that player to also add JVR. I think the Stars are a team who are rumored to be looking to make a splash this offseason but will lose out on both Karlsson and Tavares will turn their attention to JVR. I would also watch out for Vegas if they miss out on any of those players as well.

Justin’s Pick: Dallas Stars

Depending on which reporters you are willing to trust it seems like more than half the league has expressed interest in James van Riemsdyk. At this point the most reliable reporters have confirmed most of the rumors so JVR will be a player to watch in free agency. Making a prediction here is going to be tough since so many teams are rumored to be showing interest. I think van Riemsdyk would fit nicely in Dallas. The Stars are in the Tavares sweepstakes so their willingness to pay for a forward is there. JVR would fit nicely in their lineup and the team will be looking to bounce back after missing the playoffs.

Ryan O’Reilly

Kyle’s Pick: Vegas Golden Knights

This pick will likely come as a surprise but I think this makes plenty of sense. Vegas will have to add some salary this offseason and can easily absorb O’Reilly’s cap hit for years to come. O’Reilly might not have the speed of other Vegas players but everything else he brings would be a great fit in Vegas. Vegas doesn’t have a great second-line shutdown center that O’Reilly brings. By acquiring a player who is thought of as one of the best two-way players in the game, Vegas could put their dominant scoring line in an even more favorable position. We can debate how important faceoffs are but Vegas was exposed at the dot in the Stanley Cup Finals. It seemed like they lost nearly every important draw. Ryan O’Reilly solves that. Vegas also has the assets to make a deal happen. I could see a deal revolving around Cody Eakin and Alex Tuch making a lot of sense. Rumors have swirled forever connecting O’Reilly to Montreal and St. Louis that I think if a deal was going to be made that it would have been made already.

Justin’s Pick: Buffalo Sabres

Ryan O’Reilly is not a free agent, but his name has been circulating in trade rumors since the season ended. The Sabres are looking to get faster and moving the $7.5M cap hit would help their cause. The Canadiens and Blues were rumored to be trying to deal for O’Reilly at the draft, but the deals fell through. The Sabres could have been looking to acquire picks in the deal so now that the draft has past I think the he will start the season in Buffalo. Some media members are reporting that the Canadiens have stayed in contact with the Sabres about making a deal. The Sabres have no reason to move him for anything less than maximum value, they are not a cap team and O’Reilly is tremendously valuable to the team.

James Neal

Kyle’s Pick: Nashville Predators

Contract Prediction: $36.6M over 6 years; $6.1M AAV

If my prediction comes true, Neal could sign quickly but will likely end up with a smaller AAV than we have predicted. Since I’m likely wrong with my team prediction, Neal will likely wait until the JVR domino falls. As I was typing this, Pittsburgh just cleared $5M in cap space so they could find themselves in the mix but it looks like the Neal ship in Pittsburgh has already sailed. It seems like Nashville is looking to add again and was certainly disappointed to lose Neal last year so this gives them the opportunity bring Neal back. Basically, what I typed for JVR applies to Neal as well if he doesn’t go to Nashville.

Justin’s Pick: Winnipeg Jets

James Neal is an interesting case, when he was drafted by Vegas it was assumed that he would be traded at the deadline to a contending team. As we all know, Vegas was a contending team, so it would have been a horrible look to trade Neal. Now Vegas is in a tough spot as Neal is an unrestricted free agent. It seems like Vegas will not be bringing him back, so I think a team that misses out on Tavares is a potential fit for Neal. However, Neal is rumored to be looking for a very large contract and the market could dry up rather quickly. It is for this reason that I think Neal will sign a short-term deal in Winnipeg. I suggested Stastny opt for a short-term deal but if he goes to the Avalanche the Jets will have room to add a forward in the short term and Neal fits the bill perfectly. If Neal is unable to get the long term deal he desires, Winnipeg looks to be a good fit in the short term.

Erik Karlsson

Kyle’s Pick: Vegas Golden Knights

If both this prediction and my Ryan O’Reilly prediction come true, Vegas will likely have severely depleted their organization depth but would have an awesome team for next season. Vegas could also take on Bobby Ryan’s contract to lessen the price they would have to pay for Karlsson. Ryan would be a great replacement for James Neal, who seems destined to leave the team. Acquiring Ryan, O’Reilly, and Karlsson would put Vegas close to the cap and it remains to be seen if they would be comfortable operating there. I would imagine Tomas Tatar would have to go back to Ottawa in this type of trade so if this is going to happen it would have to be before July 1^st, when Tatar’s No-Trade kicks in. I’ll probably be wrong on this or the O’Reilly prediction but I’ll hedge my bet. Vegas will make a splash this offseason.

Justin’s Pick: Ottawa Senators

John Carlsson signing was the first defensive domino to fall. Many people expect Erik Karlsson to be the next domino to fall, but I am not one of those people. I think he starts the season in Ottawa. The Senators are facing tons of pressure to put a good product on the ice this year, especially after they kept their first-round pick. The organization is not in good standing right now, a player like Karlsson is the only stabilizing force, moving him would only make matters worse. Holding onto Karlsson could put the team in a tough spot at the trade deadline but I think it is something the organization will do. The way things are going for the Senators I am expecting the worst and holding onto Karlsson and selling him for 50 cents on the dollar the deadline seems like the worst-case scenario.

Calvin de Haan

Kyle’s Pick: New York Islanders

Contract Prediction: $21M over 4 years; $5.2 AAV

I frankly have no clue what will happen with de Haan so I’m going to predict he returns to the Islanders. With new management and coaching in place, de Haan doesn’t have to move to get a fresh start. De Haan wasn’t the problem on the blueline last season and the Islanders are going to have to fill some spots up and down the roster. Retaining de Haan would be one less player they would have to find in free agency. Calvin de Haan would be a great option for teams who wanted to pursue Carlson and miss out on Mike Green. He should have plenty of suitors so a team striking quickly will likely be the one to land him.

Justin’s Pick: New Jersey Devils

Despite a shoulder injury there are several teams who are interested in de Haan. A team I can see signing him are the New Jersey Devils. The Devils have a few free agent defensemen of their own and f they are unable to resign them de Haan could be a fit there. The Devils will have the cap space and a high upside player like de Haan fits exactly what they are looking for. He could be a nice complement to Will Butcher and his puck moving ability would help the forward group as well.

Jack Johnson

Kyle’s Pick: Edmonton Oilers

Contract Prediction: $17M over 4 years; $4.2 AAV

I think Montreal will also be in the mix here. Are we seeing a trend? Ultimately, I think it is Edmonton that makes the move. They seem desperate to add another defenseman and they have yet to do so. Jack Johnson fits everything Edmonton wants. A player with experience who can move the puck and is probably not as good as many hockey people think he is. Edmonton must improve their roster around McDavid and they will think this will do it (though it likely won’t).

Justin’s Pick: Montreal Canadiens

I am not a big Jack Johnson fan, but he will have a handful of teams looking to sign him come July 1^st. The defenseman is aging but there still appears to be quite the demand and willingness to pay. The Penguins are rumored to have interest, but I think trading Sheary and Hunwick was done to go after a bigger fish. The Montreal Canadiens are also rumored to have shown interest and I can see the team being willing to pay. The Habs are in a win now mode despite not having the strongest roster, that is a recipe for a big free agency splash. Johnson fits the bill and would fill a need on the back end. This would seem like a panic move to me, but I would not be surprised to see it go down.

Michal Kempny

Kyle’s Pick: Washington Capitals

Contract Prediction: $7.4M over 2 years; $3.7M AAV

Kempny is probably an underappreciated player who we will probably over shoot with our contract prediction. Teams should be interested in Kempny but if Kempny ultimately wants to stay in Washington, that’s what will happen.

Justin’s Pick: Washington Capitals

This seems like an easy one. Kempny is going to stay in Washington, why would he want to leave and why would the Capitals let him go? After being acquired from the Blackhawks Kempny found his game in Washington and played a key role during the playoff run. He shouldn’t cost the team a crazy amount and his style of play fits the style of play. When the player comes out and says the goal is to resign, it is obvious what the plan is. Kempny will not have to take a large “hometown discount” because his price will not be all that high to begin with.

Mike Green

Kyle’s Pick: Philadelphia Flyers

Contract Prediction: $24M over 4 years; $6M AAV

This is another pick I don’t feel overly confident in but Philadelphia will be poised to make a splash in free agency and this is the biggest fish I think they have any sort of chance at landing. Green is probably an upgrade over Brandon Manning and with cap space and few holes on their roster, the Flyers are in a position to pay for any sort of upgrade they can get. They are probably in a win now window so a short-term deal with Green would make loads of sense.

Justin’s Pick: Detroit Red Wings

Mike Green is an interesting case, he has a very specific skillset that some of the better teams in the league should be looking to acquire. The Capitals and Green are connected for obvious reasons, but I do not see the Caps having enough cap space to make it happen. I can see Green joining the Lightning, but they may need to clear some cap space to make it happen. For those reasons I am predicting that he stays in Detroit. I hate to make the boring prediction, but it looks like Green isn’t chasing the most money and the better teams in the league may not have the cap space required to sign a player like Green.

We hope you enjoyed reading! Please check back often for more free agency related content!

UPDATE (6/28): We have published our free agent contract predictions here

 

KYLE STICH is the Director of AFP Analytics.  In addition, Mr. Stich is a tax specialist and Director of Operations at AFP Consulting LLC, whose clientele include professional athletes performing services on three separate continents. Mr. Stich earned his Master of Science in Sport Management with a Concentration in Sport Analytics from Columbia University in 2017. He earned his undergraduate degrees in Accounting and Sport Management from St. John Fisher College in 2015, where he has served as an adjunct professor teaching Sport Finance and Baseball Analytics.

JUSTIN WHITE is an intern AFP Analytics. Justin is a graduate of St. John Fisher College where he earned his degree in Sport Management and Statistics. He has worked with the Rochester Americans and members of their coaching staff on various analytics and statistics-based projects.

 

 

 

 

 

NHL 31 in 31 Season Review: Washington Capitals

Washington Capitals

Next up in our 31 in 31 season review is a look at the Stanley Cup Champion Washington Capitals. This is also our final team review. Before we get into the review, I would like to thank everyone who has taken any time to read our reviews and gave us a follow. As a new company, we appreciate the support and we hope you will continue to follow along with our work as we have some exciting things in store (which I will tease at the end). With that let’s get into the Washington Capitals’ review. I wonder if Ovi is sober yet?

Season Bright Spots

The team won the Cup and we saw maybe the greatest championship celebration in the history of sports. What’s not to like? I could wrap this up quickly and leave it at that but I will go ahead and highlight some players. I am not going to highlight Ovi’s strong playoff play because it should not come as a surprise to anyone who pays attention that he was once again strong in the playoffs. If you don’t believe me, check out our piece on it.

I think the place to start is with one of Washington’s lesser-known defenseman who was tremendous during the regular season but struggled in the playoffs. Christian Djoos led all Capital defensemen in Corsi For % Relative in the regular season during 5v5 play and was just behind one of the Capitals’ young stars, who I will get to in a little. When Djoos was on the ice, the Capitals’ shot metrics improved by approximately 5%. The better news for the Capitals is Djoos is under contract at $650,000 for another year, which is critical for the team as they enter this offseason with a tough cap situation.

The next player to highlight is Andre Burakovsky, who somehow was a healthy scratch in the playoffs. Yes, I understand he may have had a few rough games after coming back from his injury but he was the biggest difference maker in driving shots for the Capitals both in the regular season and the playoffs. In the regular season, he was the only player better than Djoos in terms of driving shots (also with a Relative Corsi For % just above 5%). In the playoffs, the Capitals controlled the shot counter 6.53% better, best on the team! He also scored at a rate of 1.67 points per 60 during 5v5 play in the regular season. The team probably didn’t have the cap space to lock Burakovsky up long-term, but they are likely going to regret doing so. He should be one of the team’s future young stars and the Capitals would be wise to build around him.

The final player I am going to highlight is definitely a controversial pick. For his play only, Tom Wilson was very good, especially while playing top line minutes. I do have to pause and say that his reckless and sometimes dirty style of play needs to change. It’s a shame that too many of these players who have talent and skill cross the line too many times. I wrote about Matthew Tkachuk being in the same boat. Brad Marchand is, of course, another player who falls into this category. Getting back to Wilson’s play, he was often paired with Alex Ovechkin and the two of them formed a formable duo, combining for a Corsi For % of 51.88% when playing together. When the players were apart, both fell below 50%. The team also controlled the shots 3.41% better when Wilson was on the ice. Wilson is a restricted free agent with arbitration rights this offseason. If you’re going to look purely at Wilson’s statistics, especially some of his shot metrics, Wilson could fetch a nice contract this offseason. However, his suspension history for his reckless and dangerous play certainly could work against him.

Major Disappointments

Should I pick the low hanging fruit here? Of course, I should! Brooks Orpik was, ummmm, not good. For a player who is counting $5.5M against the salary cap, you would expect to get a player who at worst has a Relative Corsi For % of 0, meaning the team doesn’t get any worse when they are on the ice. When Orpik was on the ice, the team was 5.46% worse. Yikes! For a team strapped for salary cap space, Orpik’s cap is a near killer. I would also be willing to bet that Orpik doesn’t get much better next year and more likely will get worse.

Frankly, there really isn’t much more to touch on here. Jay Beagle was not good for Washington but also wasn’t paid that much. Braden Holtby struggled for stretches in the regular season but earned his pay in the playoffs. The same could be said for Kuznetsov. I guess it’s kind of hard to find many disappointments on the best team in the league. They probably don’t lift the Cup if they did.

Offseason Plans

This is where things get interesting for the Capitals. Keeping championship teams together is not easy. In order to win, you usually have to spend and it also likely means bringing in rental players for the stretch run. Eventually, it catches up with you. Last season it began to and this offseason might really sting. This season they were able to fill out their roster with some of their young, talented players who were clearly NHL ready. I’m not sure if they’re going to be able to do that again next season as they just don’t have an overly exciting prospect pool. The team will likely have around $17M in cap space, needing to sign two forwards and two defensemen and then fill out their final three roster spots.

The team’s first decision will have to be on Philipp Grubauer, who had an excellent regular season (I could have highlighted him in the bright spots section) but struggled in the playoffs, is a restricted free agent with arbitration rights. He is also a year away from unrestricted so the Capitals really have to make a decision this offseason. I think trading Grubauer is the smart decision. Holtby has a partial no-move clause and a $6.1M cap hit for two more seasons, which isn’t terrible but also likely won’t have teams lining up with offers that will blow the Capitals away. He also would serve as a great bridge to Ilya Samsonov, the team’s likely goalie of the future. I still don’t know why the team used a first-round pick on a goalie but that’s a story for another day. I think Washington would be wise to try to flip Grubauer for a young, NHL ready player who can add some lower line depth for a small cap hit. I wonder if Grubauer to Buffalo for Zemgus Girgensons and the 32^ndoverall pick could make any sense. Another destination that would make sense is the New York Islanders and I wonder if they would be willing to part with Josh Ho-Sang (or if Washington would be interested). I think he would be an awesome add for Washington. Regardless, I would expect Grubauer to get traded before or during the draft.

The biggest decision Washington has to make is on John Carlson. Carlson’s underlying statistics don’t suggest he is in the elite defenseman tier but will definitely get paid like he is. To be honest, I have always been a big fan of Carlson. There is just something about his style of play that I like. He could play on my team any day. If Carlson stays in Washington, it will be because he signs for less than he could get on the open market. It’s not out of the question but seems tough without clearing out some cap space. I’m looking at you Brooks Orpik. Buying out Orpik might be a necessity if the team wants to keep Carlson (or really have any cap flexibility), but I’m not sure I would bet on it due to the intangibles he is perceived to bring to the team. Doing so would result in cap savings of $3M.

The decision on Carlson will likely have some barring on what they decide to do with Michal Kempy, a player who is probably underappreciated for what he brings to the table. Kempy isn’t going to light up the stat lines but is going to drive a team’s shot metrics and is, therefore, a valuable piece as a bottom four defender. His playoff success is probably going to drive up his market value (right or wrong). I think Washington would be smart to keep Kempy regardless, but also recognize it will be tough if they retain Carlson. A defenseman who could be a tremendous fit as a replacement for one of Carlson or Kempy for Washington is Andrej Sustr, a nearly identical player to Kempy who plays the right side.

Outside of these three players, the team will need to work out new contracts with restricted free agents Devante Smith-Pelly and Tom Wilson, who both have arbitration rights. Travis Boyd is also a restricted free agent with arbitration rights but shouldn’t impact their plans significantly. Madison Bowey should also be kept as a restricted free agent. I’m not sure I would look to bring back either of Jay Beagle or Alex Chiasson, but if either is willing to come back for $1M or less, the team has to consider it given their potential cap squeeze.

The good news for Washington is they should have no problem going into next season with a nearly identical forward group, that will likely only see the bottom line depth players change. The question is whether that group will be good enough to do it again. Considering the puck luck Washington got in the playoffs, I’m not sure it is. However, good luck doing much about it. Washington’s main offseason struggle is definitely their blueline. Buying out Orpik seems like a necessity. I think the team needs to retain Carlson and Kempy as well. In reality, the team should have the cap space, at least in the short term, to do so. As for goaltending, I think they roll with Holtby and Phoenix Copley next season, which should be a perfectly fine tandem. Now that the team has the confidence they can win, they should go for it again and throw caution to the wind.

If you enjoyed this review, please check out our other 30 reviews. We would appreciate if you follow us on Twitter (@afpanalytics) as we continue to roll out new, cool content. At some point in the somewhat near future, we will be publishing a comprehensive analysis on bridge contracts, that I think can’t be missed. Thank you for reading and remember if anything we wrote comes true this offseason, remember you heard it here first!

Stats have been pulled from NaturalStatTrick.com and Corsica.hockey. Salary info from Capfriendly.com.

KYLE STICH is the Director of AFP Analytics.  In addition, Mr. Stich is a tax specialist and Director of Operations at AFP Consulting LLC, whose clientele include professional athletes performing services on three separate continents. Mr. Stich earned his Master of Science in Sport Management with a Concentration in Sport Analytics from Columbia University in 2017. He earned his undergraduate degrees in Accounting and Sport Management from St. John Fisher College in 2015, where he has served as an adjunct professor teaching Sport Finance and Baseball Analytics.