06 Jul
2022 NHL Mock Draft
This is our mock version for the first round of the 2022 NHL Draft, which will be held in Montreal on July 7th. The first 20 picks will be split into multiple parts. The first part being which players our model would prefer to select at each pick. The explanation of our model can be found here. The next part will be our draft analyst Matt Higgs’ analysis on what he believes will happen at each selection. The final part will be the summary of the prediction, and it will include projected NHL role, as well as NHL comparable players for the prospects. The final twelve selections will simply include the mock pick, and the NHL comparable for the player.
*Note: The NHL comparable players provided are simply a stylistic comparison of each prospect, not necessarily who we believe each player will eventually become in the NHL.
1. Montreal Canadiens
The Model
With the first pick, Montreal is most likely debating between picking either Canadian center Shane Wright, or the big Slovak winger, Juraj Slafkovsky. At the top of the draft, our model really likes Wright, Slovakian defensemen Simon Nemec, and Austrian forward Marco Kasper, as the top tier guys. Although Nemec is a consensus top 5 pick, Kasper is more of a consensus top 10-15 pick among most rankings and mock drafts. Our model really liked him due to his production in the SHL this past season, the top league in Sweden, and followed it up with an impressive playoffs as well. However, Kasper is already almost close to a finished product, and there are questions about his offensive upside, which validate the reasons for most rankings having him outside the top 5. Our model really likes Nemec for the same reasons as Kasper, as he was very impressive in the top Slovakian league this season, with an outstanding playoffs as well, as he averaged almost a point per game as a teenage defenseman in the postseason. However, Nemec is not seen as a realistic option at pick number one for Montreal, which leaves Wright and Slafkovsky. While Wright was the consensus number one for the past few years in this draft class, he had a very underwhelming season this year, leaving the door open for debate at the top. Slafkovsky, on the other hand, shot up the draft boards this year thanks to some very impressive showings in international tournaments, including the Olympics in Beijing where he led the tournament in goals and won tournament MVP, as well as the Men’s World Championships in Finland. As a result, the gap is razor thin between the two players for who should be picked first. Our model was not very high on Slafkovsky, mainly due to his underwhelming production in Liiga this past season.
Matt’s Analysis
My personal preference at number one would be USNTDP center Logan Cooley. When compared to Wright, Cooley is the far more dynamic player with many more tools, which leads me to believe he has a much better chance to be a top line, 70-80 point center. I view Wright as more of a very good, second line, 50-60 point center. When comparing Cooley to Slafkovsky, it is razor thin, but I slightly lean towards Cooley due to positional value. However, it doesn’t seem like Cooley is in the conversation for Montreal at number one, leaving it between Wright and Slafkovsky. With the draft being in Montreal, and Shane Wright being the big name and the canadian kid, It feels like there would be a lot more pressure on upper management to get it right if they opted for Slafkovsky over Wright. Montreal goes with the two-way center to give them a one-two punch down the middle with Wright and Nick Suzuki.
Prediction
The Pick: Shane Wright, Center, Kingston Frontenacs (OHL)
Projection: Two-way, second-line center
NHL Comparables: Mika Zibanejad, Patrice Bergeron, Mark Schiefele
The Model
With Wright off the board, our model really likes Simon Nemec and Marco Kasper as the best options for New Jersey. They, along with Shane Wright, were the three players in the model’s top tier. However, according to most rankings and mock drafts, it would be a massive reach to take Kasper in the top 5. Nemec is interesting, as he has been projected to go and ranked around 4th overall, which makes him a slight possibility for New Jersey here at pick two. However, they took a defensemen with a top 5 pick last year in Luke Hughes. Nemec is also seen as more of an offensive defenseman, which is exactly what Luke Hughes is, so Nemec wouldn’t exactly be filling an organizational need here. Unless they surprised us on draft day, it doesn’t seem as if Nemec would be the pick here for New Jersey.
Matt’s Analysis
Death, taxes, and New Jersey moving up in the draft lottery. The Devils, who were originally slotted to pick fifth, win another lottery and jump up to second overall. While I believe Cooley is the best player available, I believe Slafkovsky fits a bigger need for New Jersey. The Devils are probably looking to add a bit more size, and they already have a solid duo down the middle with Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier (as well as Dawson Mercer). On top of that, Cooley is an undersized, dynamic, playmaking center, which is what they already have with Hughes (and Hischier, to an extent). Slafkovsky gives them the big, powerful, goal-scoring winger that they need, and would fit in beautifully playing next to Jack Hughes for the next decade plus.
Prediction
The Pick: Juraj Slafkovsky, Left Wing, TPS (Liiga)
Projection: Top six, goal scoring winger
NHL Comparables: Mikko Rantanen, Rick Nash
3. Arizona Coyotes
The Model
Nemec and Kasper still remain as the top players available according to the model. While it is realistically still far too early for Kasper, I definitely expect Nemec to be in play here for Arizona.
Matt’s Analysis
It feels as if there’s somewhat of a consensus top three in this draft with Wright, Slafkovsky, and Logan Cooley. I believe Arizona would select whichever one of the three fell to them at this pick. In this case, it’s Logan Cooley. I also believe that if Slafkovsky was also an option here, they would still select Cooley, as he fits a greater organizational need for them. They have some good talent at wing with Clayton Keller, Nick Schmaltz, and Dylan Guenther on the way, but they do not have any top-end, dynamic, playmaking centers to play with those guys, and Cooley certainly fits the bill. He is an electric playmaker and fits exactly what the Coyotes are lacking down the middle. Although he’s a bit undersized at 5’10, he more than makes up for it with his speed, vision, hands, competitiveness, and overall explosive playmaking ability. He has arguably the highest ceiling of any player in this class, with legit potential to be a superstar down the road with time and proper development. I believe the best overall talent available in this draft falls in Arizona’s lap at pick number three. He will be heading over to play at the University of Minnesota next season, but should be ready to step into the NHL next spring after his college season ends.
Prediction
The Pick: Logan Cooley, Center, USNTDP
Projection: Top line, playmaking center
NHL Comparables: Brayden Point, Mitch Marner
The Model
Two of the three top tier players in our model are still available for Seattle at the fourth pick. Although Nemec and Kasper are in the same tier at the top, our model still has Nemec as a higher probability to be a full-time NHL player, making Nemec the preferred pick here. If you start looking at players in our next tier, the only players who would be realistic options here for Seattle in that tier are Logan Cooley and Swedish goal scoring winger Jonathan Lekkerimaki. Cooley is obviously not available, and it’d probably be a reach here for Lekkerimaki.
Matt’s Analysis
After taking center Matty Beniers with their second overall pick last year, Seattle grabs a cornerstone defensemen in Simon Nemec. This pick seems like it will realistically come down to Nemec and Czech defenseman David Jiricek, so it’s all about who Seattle prefers, as they are both much different types of players. Nemec is 6’0, and is viewed as more of a modern type of defenseman. He’s a smooth skater, smart, and can move the puck very efficiently. Jiricek is 6’3, and is more of a physical “shutdown” type of defensemen, with limited offensive ability. I believe Nemec fits better with how Seattle wants to build their team, and I believe he is the better overall prospect as well. Nemec may not become a true number one defenseman, but he’s got a great shot at being a top pair D in Seattle for a long time.
Prediction
The Pick: Simon Nemec, Defenseman, Nitra (SVK)
Projection: Number 2/3, two-way defenseman
NHL Comparables: Devon Toews, MacKenzie Weegar
5. Philadelphia Flyers
The Model
With Nemec gone, the only player remaining in the top tier of our model is Kasper. Unless the Flyers are 100% sold on his offensive upside, it would be a reach to take Kasper here. The top remaining player in our model’s next tier is Lekkerimaki. Our model was pretty high on Lekkerimaki due to him lighting up the top Swedish junior league, as well as having pretty good production in the SHL this season, and because of the fact that he is only a couple months away from not being draft eligible until next year’s draft. There are some players in the draft class who are almost a full year older than Lekkerimaki. Another year of development could do wonders for a player like him. However, it still feels a tad early here for Lekkerimaki.
Matt’s Analysis
As mentioned before of there being a light consensus on a top 3 in this year’s draft, it also seems like there is a consensus top six, with those six players being the four already chosen in this mock, as well as Jiricek and USNTDP product Cutter Gauthier. I believe this pick comes down to those two. I’m sure Philadelphia will love Jiricek’s hard-hitting, physical style of play, but they do already have a defenseman in the mold of Jiricek in Rasmus Ristolainen. They are both big, physical, have heavy shots, and limited offense, so Jiricek wouldn’t be giving the Flyers something they don’t have. I also believe the Flyers simply need more talent and skill up front, and Gauthier fits the bill. Gauthier is a 6’2, highly competitive forward, who is an outstanding skater, and already has an NHL caliber shot. He is arguably the best goalscorer in the draft. On top of that, many teams believe he will play center at the NHL level, which only bumps up his value.
Prediction
The Pick: Cutter Gauthier, Center/Left Wing, USNTDP
Projection: Top 6, goal-scoring power forward
NHL Comparables: J.T Miller, Pierre-Luc Dubois
The Model
The two players that are realistic options here for Columbus that our model has in its top two tiers are still Kasper and Lekkerimaki. However, it still feels a tad bit high for each player, although this is probably the last pick where neither are very good possibilities to get taken. If you look at the model’s next tier, one player that starts to become a candidate to get taken in this range is Winnipeg Ice forward Matt Savoie. Our model liked him due to his high level production in the WHL, but didn’t have him in one of the top tiers due to his height at 5’9.
Matt’s Analysis
As mentioned before, this draft class seems like it has a consensus top six at the moment, so I believe Columbus will simply select whichever of those six players falls to them. In this case, it’s the hulking Czech defenseman Jiricek. After selecting two forwards in the top 12 of last year’s draft with Kent Johnson (5th overall) and Cole Sillinger (12th), Columbus gets their defensmen in Jiricek at pick number 6. Jiricek is a right-shot, bruising defender with size and a heavy shot, although there are some offensive limitations. He’s one of the safest picks in this year’s class. He shouldn’t need very long before stepping into the Blue Jackets lineup.
Prediction
The Pick: David Jiricek, Defenseman, Plzen (CZE)
Projection: Number 2/3, two-way defenseman
NHL Comparables: Alex Pietrangelo, Moritz Seider
The Model
Now is the range where guys like Kasper, Lekkerimaki, and Savoie start to go off the board. All three are great options here for Ottawa. Another one of the model’s tier 2 players who are a possibility here for the Senators is USNTDP center Frank Nazar. Our model liked him due to putting up elite numbers with Team USA U17 and U18 in both the USHL and the USDP the past couple seasons, as he averaged well over a point a game in each league each season. However, there are varying opinions on him throughout the scouting world, with some believing he should challenge to go in the top 10, and some believing he should be a last first round pick.
Matt’s Analysis
This is where the draft really starts to open up. It seems like this pick is where the next tier of players start. That next tier includes Kasper, Lekkerimaki, Savoie, and Finnish forward Joakim Kemell, as well as Nazar, Savoie’s Winnipeg teammate Conor Geekie, and Canadian defenseman Kevin Korchinski, although it’s unlikely that those three would go this early at pick 7. At this point it’s pure guesswork to try to predict who starts to go at each pick, but I’m fairly confident that Ottawa is picking between those first four players mentioned, with Lekkerimaki probably the least likely of the four to go. Kasper has a good amount of sandpaper in his game, which is what Ottawa already has in many of its players and prospects, including Brady Tkachuk, Ridley Greig, and last year’s 10th overall pick, Tyler Boucher. As a result, I think they go with either Kemell or Savoie, and my guess is they take Savoie. Savoie is an explosive skater with great hands, an NHL caliber shot, and isn’t afraid to get to the dirty areas. It’s unclear among scouts on if he’ll play center or a wing in the NHL, but the betting odds would probably be at wing, due to his size at 5’9. Although, his junior coach does believe he’ll be a center at the next level. Also, don’t be surprised if Ottawa trades out of this pick, as they may be wanting to accelerate the rebuild process.
Prediction
The Pick: Matt Savoie, Center/Right Wing, Winnipeg (WHL)
Projection: Top 6, point producing forward
NHL Comparables: Mat Barzal, Kevin Fiala
8. Detroit Red Wings
The Model
At this point, the model is probably screaming for someone to take Kasper, and I think it finally gets its wish here.
Matt’s Analysis
Just like Ottawa in the pick before, it would be a major shock if Detroit’s pick wasn’t one of those players previously listed in the next tier after the top six. However, Steve Yzerman has shown he isn’t afraid to go off the board, so never say never. Of those players, I believe the most likely candidates for Detroit here are Kasper and Frank Nazar. Nazar is very similar to Detroit’s own Dylan Larkin, both very speedy and skilled centers from the USNTDP, and both playing their college hockey at Michigan. A big difference is that Larkin is 6’1, while Nazar is only 5’10, making it a bigger obstacle for him to become a top six center in the NHL. The vastly different opinions on Nazar in the scouting world also indicate that it’s probably unlikely he goes as high as 8th overall. Marco Kasper really feels like the pick for Detroit here. He fills a need here as a potential second-line center to slot in behind Larkin, although he is very versatile and can play any forward position. There are also obvious connections with Detroit and taking high draft picks out of the SHL. Although there are questions about Kasper’s offensive upside, he’s one of the best all-around prospects in this draft, combined with very high character and a great work ethic. There’s a slight chance he may even be able to step into the NHL as soon as this coming season. Detroit takes the Austrian pivot at pick 8.
Prediction
The Pick: Marco Kasper, Center, Rӧgle (SHL)
Projection: Two-way, second line center
NHL Comparables: Sam Bennet, Joel Eriksson-Ek
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9. Buffalo Sabres
The Model
With all three players in the top tier of the model all off the board, the remaining picks will be from players placed in the remaining tiers. Tier 2 players Lekkerimaki and Nazar still remain here for Buffalo at 9, so the model would definitely favor one of those two here. Some remaining tier 2 players from the model include USNTDP players Isaac Howard and Lane Hutson, who ranked highly due to their high levels of point production for the past couple seasons, but they are probably not realistic options for the Sabres this early.
Matt’s Analysis
Just like Detroit and Ottawa, it would be a major surprise if the Sabres selection wasn’t from that group of six to seven players after the consensus top six. Since Savoie and Kasper are both gone in this mock, that leaves Lekkerimaki, Kemell, Nazar, Geekie, and Korchinski. In regards to Korchinski, I firmly believe that the Sabres won’t be taking a defenseman here, mainly due to the fact that the best available defensemen at this range are left-hand shots. The Sabres young cornerstone defenders right now are former first overall picks Rasmus Dahlin and Owen Power, as well as Mattias Samuelsson. All of them are left-handed, making it tough to use a top ten selection on another left-shot defenseman. Even after Korchinski, the next two best available defensemen are Denton Mateychuk and Pavel Mintyukov, and both are left-handed (and both would be a reach here at 9). As a result, I can confidently cross off Korchinski here. 6’3 center Conor Geekie is a potential option here, but Buffalo also has the 16th pick in this draft, and there’s a decent chance he could slide there, so I’d be very surprised if Buffalo used its first pick on Geekie. That leaves Lekkerimaki, Kemell, and Nazar. You could easily make an argument for all 3 of these players, so it’s tough to pinpoint which direction they’ll go. I’ll cross off Nazar just because he has the greatest chance of these 3, by far, to slide to 16, and it’s usually BPA at the top of the draft. In addition, Lekkerimaki and Kemell firmly project as top 6 forwards in the NHL, while there are questions on if Nazar will become a 2nd line center, or nothing more than a 3rd line center. That leaves Lekkerimaki and Kemell. They are both very similar players, as they are both undersized, skilled, right-handed, European, goal-scoring wingers with lethal shots. It’s tough to find many differences between the two, other than Lekkerimakki is an inch taller at 5’10 ½, while Kemell has a bigger edge to his game. It realistically comes down to who they personally prefer, as it is extremely close between the two in most rankings out there. It is tough to ignore a bit of a Swedish connection for the Sabres, as they’ve had their fair share of taking players from Sweden in recent years, including last year when they took Isak Rosen with a top 15 pick. They also have multiple Swedes on the current roster, including one of their franchise players in Dahlin, as well as Victor Olofsson and Rasmus Asplund. When watching Lekkerimaki, he looks almost identical to Jack Quinn, who the Sabres used a top 10 pick on a couple years ago. However, Kemell was leading the entire Finnish professional league in scoring early on this season before suffering a shoulder injury, but never maintained that scoring rate once he came back later on. The first half of the year, Kemell was seen as a top 5 pick, and potentially even top 3. If he stayed healthy all year, who knows where he might be going in this draft. It’s razor thin between the two in every ranking and mock draft out there, but I’ll say they go with Lekkerimaki because of the Sabres’ Swedish connection.
Prediction
The Pick: Jonathan Lekkerimaki, Right Wing, Djurgardens (SWE)
Projection: Top 6, goal scoring winger
NHL comparable: Jordan Eberle
10. Anaheim Ducks
The Model
With Lekkerimaki gone, the model’s only remaining tier-2 player who is a realistic choice here for Anaheim is Nazar. However, I believe the Ducks will be leaning towards taking a defensemen here. The only two d-men in the second tier from the model are USNTDP product Lane Hutson, and North Bay Batallion’s Ty Nelson. They are both undersized, offensive defenseman who the model liked because of their ability to put up points wherever they want, so it would recommend one of them as the pick here. However, neither of them are considered to go anywhere near the top 10 in this class. If you look at the defensemen in the model’s next tier, it includes Korchinski, as well as USNTDP’s Seamus Casey, and Moose Jaw Warrior Denton Mateychuk. Casey isn’t a realistic option here at 10. Mateychuk may have an outside chance, but it’s highly unlikely. Korchinski, on the other hand, is one of the frontrunners.
Matt’s Analysis
I strongly believe that Anaheim will be taking a d-man here at 10. After the recent trade of Hampus Lindholm, they are pretty thin at the position. They also used their 3rd overall pick last year on a forward in Mason McTavish. The two defensemen who are strong possibilities here for the Ducks are Korchinski and Saginaw Spirit’s Pavel Mintyukov. They are both big, mobile defensemen with offensive upside. Korchinski shot up the rankings this season, thanks in large part to an impressive showing in the Seattle Thunderbirds’ deep run in the WHL playoffs recently. I believe the greatest separator here is Mintyukov’s passport, as Russians are expected to slide a bit this year as a result of some pretty obvious real-world circumstances. Due to the considerable risk and questions surrounding taking a Russian player, I don’t expect any team to use a top 10 pick on one. On top of that, I also believe Korchinski is the better overall prospect with a higher ceiling.
Prediction
The Pick: Kevin Korchinski, Defensemen, Seattle Thunderbirds (WHL)
Projection: Top 4, offensive defensemen
NHL Comparable: Shea Theodore
11. San Jose Sharks
The Model
Similar to Anaheim, the only realistic option for San Jose in tier 2 of the model is Nazar. If you look at the next tier, a few names with outside chances to be selected here include Mateychuk, Finnish forward Brad Lambert, and Swedish forward Liam Ohgren. It’s certainly possible Lambert goes in this range of picks, but it still feels a tad bit early for him. The same goes for Mateychuk and Ohgren, as they’re more likely to go in the 15-20 range. The model’s pick here would be Nazar, and he is certainly a possibility.
Matt’s Analysis
I believe the Sharks are leaning towards taking a defensemen with this pick, as they don’t have much coming through the pipeline on defence behind Ryan Merkley. They also have their fair share of forwards they’ve drafted, including last year’s top 10 pick William Eklund, and 2020 first rounder Ozzy Weisblatt. The top defensemen available here would be Pavel Mintyukov. However, I believe the value here with Kemell sliding this far would be too good to pass up on. They’ve clearly shown that they value smallish possession forwards through recent drafts, so Kemell would make sense here, giving them another offensive weapon to add to their prospect pool.
Prediction
The Pick: Joakim Kemell, Right Wing, JYP (Liiga)
Projection: Top 6, goal scoring winger
NHL Comparable: Viktor Arvidsson
12.Columbus Blue Jackets
The Model
With San Jose taking Kemell, the same players remain as the model’s best options for Columbus. The most likely option of those players is still Nazar, although I could see them taking a swing on Lambert, who is one of the biggest X-factors in this draft.
Matt’s Analysis
Since Columbus used their first pick in this mock on a defensemen, I believe they lean toward taking a forward if this scenario were to play out. They could take a bit of a risk and select Russian forward Danila Yurov, who is easily a top 10 talent in this draft, but will probably slide a bit due to obvious reasons. However, I believe they hold off and go with the 6’3 center Conor Geekie. Geekie’s skating is cause for concern, but he has a high hockey IQ and great playmaking ability. When you combine that with his 6’3 frame, he’s definitely got the tools to be a difference maker at the next level
Prediction
The Pick: Conor Geekie, Center, Winnipeg Ice (WHL)
Projection: Middle-six center
NHL Comparables: Ryan Getzlaf, Brock Nelson
13. New York Islanders
The Model
With the Sharks selecting Geekie, the same players remain as the model’s picks here for the Islanders, with the two most likely still being Nazar or Lambert. Lambert is an interesting one, as his uncle is newly hired Islanders head coach Lane Lambert, so there’s a possible connection there.
Matt’s Analysis
The Islanders prospect pool is pretty much a wasteland, so they can go any direction here. They’re also a candidate to trade out of this pick. I say they go with Czech forward Jiri Kulich here. Many would say this is a bit of a reach here for Kulich, but he has been shooting up the draft boards all season, especially after an outstanding showing at the U18’s, where he led the tournament in goals and won tournament MVP. It also feels like he fits the Islanders and Lou Lamoriello’s preferred style of play with his competitive, two-way game.
Prediction
The Pick: Jiri Kulich, LW/C, Karlovy (CZE)
Projection: Middle six, two-way forward
NHL Comparables: Jake Guentzel, Yanni Gourde
14. Winnipeg Jets
The Model
The same players remain as for who the model who take here for Winnipeg. There are also a couple players in the model’s 4th tier who start to become considerations in this range of the draft, Swedish forward Noah Ostlund, and USNTDP forward Jimmy Snuggerud. Both are very possible picks here for Winnipeg. Nazar, though, would be the model’s top selection, and I believe he finally goes here
Matt’s Analysis
Although Nazar still being available here is seen as a slide according to the model, this is about the range he is expected to go. With questions surrounding the futures of Pierre-Luc Dubois and Blake Wheeler in Winnipeg, the Jets take the speedy American center in Nazar.
Prediction
The Pick: Frank Nazar, Center, USNTDP
Projection: Middle six, offensive center
NHL Comparables: Brayden Point, Alex Kerfoot
15. Vancouver Canucks
The Model
With Nazar off the board, that leaves only four players remaining in the model’s second tier. The only one who is a realistic option here for Vancouver is 5’9 USNTDP forward Isaac Howard. He may be in consideration here for the Canucks, but it feels a tad bit early for him. Tiers 3 and 4 players Mateychuk, Ohgren, Lambert, Ostlund, and Snuggerud are all very realistic options here as well. There is also an outside chance that Tier 3 players and USNTDP products Rutger McGroarty and Ryan Chesley would be considered here, but that would feel like a bit of a reach with a top 15 pick.
Matt’s Analysis
Vancouver is probably hoping for a center here, but they’d probably be reaching if they took one with this pick based on how this mock has played out so far. However, I would not be surprised if they did end up taking Swedish center Noah Ostlund with this pick. The two best players available here for Vancouver in terms of pure talent are probably two Russians, Danila Yurov and Pavel Mintyukov. Although the circumstances are a bit more extreme this year, Vancouver has shown a willingness to take Russian players high in the draft when they selected Vasili Podkolzin with a top 10 pick in 2019. They also just recently signed Russian free agent Andrei Kuzmenko. I think they pull the trigger on Yurov, who isn’t necessarily a need here for Vancouver, but could wind up being a steal this late in the draft.
Prediction
The Pick: Danila Yurov, Right Wing, Magnitogorsk (KHL)
Projection: Top 6, scoring winger
NHL Comparables: Ondrej Palat, Marian Hossa
16. Buffalo Sabres
The Model
The Sabres’ best choice here according to the model would be Isaac Howard. Despite his size at 5’9, he has shown an ability to produce everywhere he’s been the past few seasons. He is definitely a possibility here for Buffalo. Tiers 3 and 4 players Mateychuk, Ohgren, Lambert, Ostlund, and Snuggerud will definitely be considerations here for Buffalo as well. It is still a bit early for the other three available tier 2 players to be taken this early, which includes Hutson, Nelson, and Slovak forward Filip Mesar.
Matt’s Analysis
With Buffalo selecting Lekkerimaki with their first pick in this mock, they probably wouldn’t be leaning towards taking another scoring winger in this scenario, especially when they already have Jack Quinn and JJ Peterka on the way (However, I do think Yurov is the pick here if he’s available on draft day). The ideal pick would be a center or a defensemen. Defense would probably be the priority, as they don’t have any top prospects on the way from Rochester or anywhere else after Owen Power. They have a pretty good D prospect in Ryan Johnson, but there’s a very good possibility that he signs somewhere else next summer once the Sabres don’t own his rights anymore. In the Sabres’ last two drafts under Kevyn Adams, they have selected a total of three defensemen out of 12 picks, so they might be looking to take one or two with their three picks in the first round. The best defensemen available here is Mintyukov. After that, there’s Mateychuk and 6’4 Owen Pickering from Swift Current. All three are left-handed shots, which isn’t necessarily ideal for Buffalo, given they already have Dahlin, Power, and Samuelsson. They could go with right-handed Ryan Chesley from the USNTDP, but here would be a bit early for him, and there’s a legitimate chance he’ll be available with the Sabres third pick in the first round at 28th overall. If they look to take a center here, the best available is Noah Ostlund, who I could definitely see as the pick here, and would be my personal pick if the draft played out this way. He was easily one of the best players at the U18’s, and his stock has shot up over the second half of the year. Although he projects more as a winger in the NHL, I also think the Sabres would heavily consider taking a swing on Brad Lambert here. For years, he was viewed as a top 5 pick in this draft, but took a major dip this season. There’s been little progress in his game year over year, and he did not produce much at all this season in Liiga, even after switching teams midseason. He comes with some major red flags, including playing way too much on the perimeter and taking nights off, but he’s probably the best skater in this draft and always seems to stand out when playing against his own age group. He’s got all the tools, making him a big X-factor in this draft. However, I’d be scared off in taking him with this pick. If I had to guess, I think this pick would come down to Ostlund and Mintyukov (in this specific scenario). I say they lean towards Mintyukov, due to defense probably being the greater need in their pipeline, as well as Mintyukov simply being the much better value and higher rated prospect. He’s a very smooth skater, and fits right in with the high pace team the Sabres are trying to build. He’s not great in his own zone, and is a little wild with his pinches, which is something he’ll need to work on, but he’s an exciting defenseman and has the ability to tilt the ice.
Prediction
The Pick: Pavel Mintyukov, Defensemen, Saginaw Spirit (OHL)
Projection: Top 4, offensive defensemen
NHL Comparables: Jakob Chychrun, Brandon Montour
The Model
With the Sabres taking Mintyukov, the same players remain as the top choices for the model here for the Predators. It’s still a bit early for tier 2 players Hutson, Nelson, and Mesar here, but this is the range where Howard will be coming off the board. He’s definitely a possibility here for Nashville.
Matt’s Analysis
The Preds will probably be looking for a defenseman here, as there is a definite need for them in their pipeline. The best available options include Mateychuk, Pickering, Chesley, and 6’5 Swiss Lian Bichsel. I’ll say they go with Owen Pickering, who is a 6’4 defenseman who can really skate and has offensive upside. If he pans out, he could end up being a steal.
Prediction
The Pick: Owen Pickering, Defenseman, Swift Current (WHL)
Projection: Top 4, offensive defenseman
NHL Comparable: Travis Sanheim
18. Dallas Stars
The Model
Four of the seven tier 2 players from the model are still on the board here for Dallas, with Howard being the most likely of the four to go in this range. I think Dallas probably leans towards taking a defender with this pick, and the two defenders from the second tier are Nelson and Hutson, however it’d be very unlikely if either of them went this early. The available defensemen in model’s third tier include Chesley and Mateychuk, who are both very strong possibilities here for Dallas
Matt’s Analysis
With Dallas taking forwards in the first round of the draft the past few years, it has left their organizational depth on the blue line quite thin. If they do go with a defensemen, the pick would probably be either Chesley, Mateychuk, or Bichsel. I’ll say they go with the USNTDP product in Chesley, who is seen as one of the more safer prospects in this draft. He won’t wow you with his play, and doesn’t have much offensive upside, but he should be a steady presence on a team’s blue line for a long time.
Prediction
The Pick: Ryan Chesley, Defenseman, USNTDP
Projection: Second pair, defensive defenseman
NHL Comparable: Brandon Carlo
The Model
With Dallas taking Chesley, who was on the model’s third tier, the same players remain as the best available options here for Minnesota. This could definitely be where Howard goes off the board.
Matt’s Analysis
Minnesota now has this pick as a result of the Kevin Fiala trade with Los Angeles. With the Wild also getting a top D prospect in Brock Faber as part of the deal, I would be surprised if they don’t take a forward here. They could take a swing on Lambert, but I’m somewhat expecting him to slide a bit on draft day. I’ll say they go with Swedish center Noah Ostlund. Minnesota clearly values skating when evaluating prospects, and Ostlund is one of the best skaters in the draft. He has been shooting up draft boards all season, and has the potential to go even higher than this pick.
Prediction
The Pick: Noah Ostlund, Center, Djurgardens (SWE)
Projection: Middle six, playmaking center
NHL Comparable: Nico Hischier
20. Washington Capitals
The Model
With Minnesota taking Ostlund, who was on the model’s fourth tier, the same players remain as the model’s best options here for Washington. The most likely player would still be Howard. Some potential options in the model’s third tier include Mateychuk, Lambert, Ohgren, and USNTDP’s Rutger McGroarty.
Matt’s Analysis
We’re around the point in the draft where it becomes nearly impossible to predict each pick. Once you get to the second half of the first round, things really start to open up, and there’s legitimately 10-15 possible players for each pick. At 20th overall, I’ll say the Caps go with 6’3 center Nathan Gaucher, who has been picking up steam as a potential top 20 selection. Gaucher projects as a third line, two-way center, with the possibility of being a second line center depending on how much offense he ends up bringing.
Prediction
The Pick: Nathan Gaucher, Center, Quebec (QMJHL)
Projection: Middle six, two-way center
NHL Comparables: Nicolas Roy, Adam Lowry
The Pick: Isaac Howard
NHL Comparable: Jeff Skinner
22. Anaheim Ducks
The Pick: Rutger McGroarty
NHL Comparable: James Van Riemsdyk
23. St. Louis Blues
The Pick: Lian Bichsel
NHL Comparable: K’Andre Miller
The Pick: Jimmy Snuggerud
NHL Comparable: Filip Forsberg
25. Toronto Maple Leafs
The Pick: Liam Ohgren
NHL Comparable: Brock Boeser
26. Montreal Canadiens
The Pick: Ivan Miroshnichenko
NHL Comparable: Gabriel Landeskog
27. Arizona Coyotes
The Pick: Jagger Firkus
NHL Comparable: TJ Oshie
28. Buffalo Sabres
The Pick: Sam Rinzel
NHL Comparable: Evan Bouchard
29. Edmonton Oilers
The Pick: Brad Lambert
NHL Comparable: Jesse Puljujarvi
The Pick: Denton Mateychuk
NHL Comparable: Shayne Gostisbehere
The Pick: Reid Schaefer
NHL Comparable: Alex Killorn
32. Arizona Coyotes
The Pick: Owen Beck
NHL Comparable: Jean-Gabriel Pageau
17 Jul
2019 NHL Free Agents: Five Remaining UFAs Who Could Provide Value
After the initial rush of the 2019 free agency period, there are still many players looking for an opportunity with an NHL club. There are some well-known names still currently looking for a new contract, like Jake Gardiner and Joe Thornton. However, we believe that there is value to be found with the players who aren’t as well-known and who may be looking for an opportunity at a larger role. We have identified five players that teams should be targeting that will, worst case scenario, improve the organizations depth. Best case scenario, these players may surprise and play their way into a more significant role on the team.
Safest Bet: Dmitrij Jaskin
After being a second-round pick in 2011, many within the hockey industry thought that Dmitrij Jaskin would become a solid middle
Most Likely to Take the Next Step to the NHL: Rourke Chartier
Rourke Chartier is a 23 year old forward who has hit the UFA (unrestricted free agent) market. Other players at that age have been in this situation before, but the numbers that Chartier has produced make him stand out. Chartier was a very productive WHL player in his junior days. Once he moved to the AHL in the San Jose Sharks organization, his game seemed to translate well. His first AHL season, he played 67 games and produced 35 points. AHL season number two saw him post 21 points in 28 games. This past season in the AHL, he had 18 points in 26 games. These numbers don’t jump off the page, but they are very respectable. Chartier also saw 13 games in the NHL this past season. In these games, he had just one goal. While that is not great, his underlying numbers gave a glimpse of hope. He averaged 9:24 TOI (time on ice), leading us to the conclusion that he was playing in a fourth line role. He produced a CF% of 53.15%. While that is good, his CF% relative was -4.86%, painting a more negative picture. Looking at these numbers, we can draw the conclusion that he may have benefited from playing on a great San Jose team but would not have been one of the better options in comparison to his teammates. However, we believe that based off of his AHL numbers and the fact that he is still young, he has the ability to make the jump to the NHL. A team looking to take a chance on an AHL player who may be able to become an adequate option on an NHL fourth line should be looking at Chartier. He should end up signing for the minimum, so this would be a low-risk option. Worst case scenario, he plays well in the AHL. Ideally, he takes the next step and becomes an option for the NHL roster.
Top Six Fill in: Pontus Aberg
Pontus Aberg is a former top second-round pick of the Nashville Predators. While he looked good for their AHL affiliate, his numbers did not translate well to the NHL. We would like to highlight that in 37 games with Nashville during the 2017-2018 season, he played over 160 minutes with Calle Jarnkrok. Jarnkrok was the Nashville forward that Aberg played the most minutes with. Aberg finished the 2017-2018 season with the Edmonton Oilers after being traded midseason. In 16 games with the Oilers, Aberg had two goals and six assists for a total of eight points. While his CF% was 48.49, his relative CF% was 2.25%, showing that the team was better when he was on the ice. In these 16 games with Edmonton, Aberg played 75 or more minutes with Drake Caggiula, Leon Draisaitl, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.
In the 2018-2019 season, Aberg started off with the Anaheim Ducks after being claimed on waivers. In 37 games with the Ducks, Aberg had 19 points. He produced a CF% of 53.60%, and a relative percentage of 7.73%. Aberg looked great playing with his most common Anaheim forward teammates of Ryan Getzlaf (274:46 TOI), Rickard Rakell (130:01 TOI), and Adam Henrique (129:52 TOI).
Midseason, Anaheim traded Aberg to the Minnesota Wild. With the Wild, Aberg struggled in 22 games. He only produced six points. Aberg’s underlying numbers were not good either. He had a CF% of 46.90%, with a relative CF% of -4.70%. Aberg was not helping the Wild when he was on the ice. He was very replaceable on their team. With Minnesota, the most common forward teammates that Aberg played with were Victor Rask (93:03 TOI) and Zach Parise (82:13 TOI).
The main thing that stands out here is that Aberg provided quality numbers when playing with top players. He has been at his best level of play with Ryan Getzlaf and Leon
Veteran Depth Player: Oscar Lindberg
As a former second-round pick, Lindberg came into the league as someone who projected to be a decent middle-six option within the forward group. That never really happened, as the most points he has ever produced in a single year was 28 in the 2015-2016 season. However, he has established himself as a decent bottom-six option. This past year, his season was split between the Vegas Golden Knights and the Ottawa Senators. With Vegas, Lindberg had four goals and eight assists in 35 games. His CF% was 56.44%, with a relative CF% of 4.21%. With Ottawa, Lindberg produced five goals and three assists in 20 games. His CF% was 44.70, with a relative CF% of 0.18%. His numbers looked really good with Vegas. Once he got to Ottawa, his underlying numbers fell, but he produced at a better rate. However, Lindberg was on a really good Vegas team, playing with other quality bottom-six forwards like Cody Eakin and Ryan Carpenter. In Ottawa, he was still making the team better in relation to other players on his team while playing with fringe NHL players, Magnus Paajarvi and Brian Gibbons. After looking at these statistics, we believe that Lindberg would be a quality veteran player to put into your bottom six. If he has other similar players around him, he will look good. If he plays with players who may fit better in the AHL, he may still have the offensive ability to stay serviceable in his NHL role. Ultimately, Lindberg is a solid veteran option to have on your NHL roster.
Boom/Bust Potential: Stefan Noesen
Stefan Noesen was a first round pick in 2011 for the Ottawa Senators. He first broke into the NHL with the Anaheim Ducks, but over three seasons of very limited time, he found himself in the New Jersey Devils organization via waivers. Noesen has had some problems dealing with injuries in his career, but he was able to put together a 72 game season in 2017-2018 with the Devils. During this season, he had 13 goals and 14 assists for a total of 27 points. His CF% was 51.62% with a relative CF% of 3.23%. This was Noesen’s first season where he came close to playing all of the games. The team would have liked to see him take another step forward in 2018-2019, but the opposite happened. Finding himself on the injured list three times throughout the season, Noesen played only 41 games. In those 41 games, he had only three goals and five assists for a total of eight points. His underlying numbers didn’t help either, as his CF% was 45.65% and his relative CF% was -2.74%. Noesen went from looking like a guy who could become a solid middle six option to a guy who may struggle to find an NHL opportunity. The Devils did not give him a qualifying offer this offseason, making him
Photo by Ethan Miller / Getty Images
James Finch is an analyst at AFP Analytics. James graduated from St. John Fisher College in 2019 with a bachelor’s degree in Sport Management with a minor in Economics. His background with sports and economics have brought about an interest in gaining experience and finding his niche within the sport analytics field.
15 Jun
NHL 31 in 31 Season Review: Vegas Golden Knights
Vegas Golden Knights
Next up in our 31 in 31 season review is a look at the Vegas Golden Knights, the record-setting expansion team that fell three wins short of winning the Stanley Cup. I think it is important to preface everything I write about the team with the fact that I, like many others, expected the team to be bad. They throttled my expectations. I think using their success as a way to insinuate the rest of the league’s GMs are dumb is a little off base. Dale Tallon messed up in a big way. Columbus’s and Minnesota’s decisions weren’t fantastic. The Islanders might have made the worst decision outside of Florida but it isn’t as talked about because they didn’t end up with a player on Vegas’s roster. I will maintain that the Knights could have been even better with a few different draft decisions but, again, who knows?
Season Bright Spots
Well, the entire team was a bright spot this season. No one was expecting them to be as good as they were. Some of their playoff success can be attributed to luck as Marc-Andre Fleury put up insane numbers until the team reached the Stanley Cup Playoffs. The team finished 13thin the league in Corsi For % at 50.84%. If they perform at that level consistently in seasons to come, they should be a perennial playoff team. The playoffs will always be a different nature as much of it comes down to the “luck” a team is getting, whether that being a high save percentage or high shooting percentage. To prove this has some validity to it, let’s look at the top PDO (shooting % + save %) in the playoffs. This year Vegas was first, Washington 2nd. Last year, Pittsburgh (winner) was second. The year before they were seventh while their opponent, the San Jose Sharks (runner-up) were first. In the 2014-2015 season, Chicago (winner) was second, 2013-2014 the Rangers (runner-up) were second and the Kings (winner) third. In the lockout-shortened 2013 season, Boston (runner-up) was second and Chicago (winner) was fourth. Basically, I want to make sure it is clear that putting too much stock into Vegas’s playoff run is misguided as a deep playoff run is usually due to luck.
As I said, I could highlight most players here for Vegas but I don’t have the space to do so. I will start by highlighting Vegas’s first line. Reilly Smith has shown evidence of being a quality player in the past and Jonathan Marchessault had been trending in that as well. However, William Karlsson came out of nowhere. The combination of the three was nothing short of magical. A case could be made for the line of Smith-Marchessault-Karlsson being the best in the entire league. They combined to score 53 goals during 5v5 play. To put that into perspective, the Buffalo Sabres, as a team scored 119 goals. That’s 45% of the Sabres’ goals! The line was also effective defensively, improving the team’s possession numbers by 3% when they were on the ice. You can’t do that if you’re pinned in the defensive zone every shift. Marchessault’s and Smith’s contracts will look like bargains for years to come if they maintain this level of play (I’m talking to you Dale Tallon!). Karlsson is a restricted free agent with arbitration rights so he will definitely be due a raise. If the team is smart and seeking to minimize their future cap hit, they should look to lock Karlsson up long-term (more on this idea this summer)!
The other player I have to highlight is Colin Miller. Miller took advantage of favorable offensive zone starts to be the best possession player on the team. Miller had an impressive 55.37% Corsi For % and a 6.45% Relative Corsi For %. Miller also led all defensemen in scoring during all situations with a very respectable 41 points. Miller, like Karlsson, is a restricted free agent with arbitration rights. The team should probably look to get him locked up to a five or six-year deal that would keep him with the team into his early 30s. You don’t want players much past then.
Major Disappointments
I’m not going to really dive into players here because, how can you? Most of the players played well above what was expected of them. Instead, I’m going to spend a little time on how I think the Golden Knights almost won in spite of the moves made by George McPhee. I can’t knock McPhee too much as the team he envisioned at the time of the expansion draft worked much better than anyone thought they would. However, I think there were instances where the team could have gotten more than they did.
Taking any unrestricted players without being enticed to do so seemed like a waste to me. I don’t think Vegas had to draft Derek Engelland in the expansion draft. He would’ve signed with them anyway. They could have added another player from Calgary. Connor Brickley and Chris Thorburn are selections that I think should have yielded Vegas more. They also needed to better manage their assets at the beginning of the season. They took too many NHL players and didn’t have deals arranged to move them, forcing them to keep Vadim Shipachyov in the AHL and eventually frustrating him to go back to Russia. Because they ended up making trades from a position of weakness, they got a lower return than they should have on some players.
The other decisions I have to question McPhee on were his trades leading up to the trade deadline. If you had told me after last season that Ryan Reaves would find himself on two different teams in 2017, I would have thought the Blues waived him, a team claimed him, waived him, and then a second team claimed him. Instead, he was traded twice for fairly substantial returns. For whatever reason, McPhee thought he couldn’t pass up the opportunity to add Reaves and was willing to help facilitate the Derick Brassard trade to the Pittsburgh Penguins. I don’t know why McPhee would’ve wanted to help the Penguins as at the time, Vegas was a clear Stanley Cup contender and so was Pittsburgh. Second, the return they got to make this trade happen and in exchange for losing $2M in salary cap space, next season was terrible.
The other trade to touch on is the acquisition of Tomas Tatar. The team gave up a first, second, and third-round pick for an average player signed to a so-so contract with term. They could’ve added Evander Kane or Rick Nash or Paul Stastny for less! I think McPhee was going for the home run by acquiring Erik Karlsson and panicked at the last minute so they decided to grab Tatar. Had they gotten a better return for what they gave up for Tatar, it could have resulted in them lifting the cup.
Offseason Plans
Dear George McPhee, don’t dole out a massive free-agent contract to anyone not named John Tavares. Your friend, Kyle. Seriously Vegas, you have one of the best future cap situations in the league, don’t go and blow it.
The team’s top priority has to be getting their restricted free agents taken care of. Karlsson, Miller, and Shea Theodore are promising young players who should be part of the team for years to come. Tomas Nosek and William Carrier are also restricted free agents and seemed to be tremendous depth players that should continue in that role next season. They also have to look at their unrestricted free agents. James Neal and David Perron are the only ones they should be considering bringing back. Giving out any contract that lasts longer than three years to either player would be a mistake. Otherwise, I wouldn’t have a problem with them bringing either player back. I guess I shouldn’t gloss over Brandon Pirri, who seems like he should be a good fit with the way Vegas plays but only played two games (scoring three goals), so making any sort of decision would be based off a very limited sample.
Vegas has a gift and a curse. As I’ve been discussing, Vegas has a great long-term cap situation, which is thanks in large part to them not having many long-term contracts on their books. They are currently due to have seven unrestricted free agents next offseason, with many of them being key components to their team. I think the team would be wise to work out extensions with them this offseason so they have certainty going into next season.
I don’t think Vegas should stand pat this offseason. They definitely could use a top pair defenseman and probably could use a quality second-line center to complement Marchessault. Vegas certainly has the ability to swing for the fences in a trade as they have assets and cap space. I’m going to go ahead and say Vegas is likely the best fit for an Erik Karlsson trade (assuming he agrees to a contract extension). They would likely have to offer a package revolving around Shea Theodore and one or two of their top prospects. If only they still had their 2018 first-round pick, I think an easier case could be made. As adamant as I have been about Vegas not adding any bad contracts, I might make an exception and take on Bobby Ryan if Ottawa would lower their ask for Karlsson. Ryan is still a decent player and Vegas would have the ability to work around that contract.
The other player I wonder about for Vegas is Ryan O’Reilly. I think there is still a struggle in evaluating the importance of faceoffs but Vegas was brutal in the playoffs, especially in the Stanley Cup Finals. They lost nearly every big faceoff and O’Reilly would certainly solve that. He also would be a great second-line center to be the more defensive complement to Marchessault. He would also serve as a first-line insurance policy if Marchessault regresses at all (unlikely). I think a trade revolving around Cody Eakin, Alex Tuch, and a top prospect is likely the starting price. I do question if O’Reilly would have the foot speed to play the style of hockey Vegas played this season but otherwise, I think he would check a lot of boxes for the team.
This offseason will be almost as important as the last offseason for the franchise. The team needs to be careful to not overreact to their immediate success. The team likely had a plan in place when they started and they should stick to that plan. Dipping into free agency would allow the team to continue to build their organizational depth and assets but will likely end up with a bad contract on the books. Trading is a way to add higher end talent (Tavares excluded) on better contracts but doing so will deplete their organizational depth. It will take a fine touch to navigate the offseason correctly. McPhee’s decisions have mostly paid off, but at some point, the questionable decision-making is going to catch up to him so my advice: proceed with caution.
If you enjoyed this review, please follow us on Twitter, @afpanalytics, and share it with your friends!
Stats have been pulled from NaturalStatTrick.com and Corsica.hockey. Salary info from Capfriendly.com.
KYLE STICH is the Director of AFP Analytics. In addition, Mr. Stich is a tax specialist and Director of Operations at AFP Consulting LLC, whose clientele include professional athletes performing services on three separate continents. Mr. Stich earned his Master of Science in Sport Management with a Concentration in Sport Analytics from Columbia University in 2017. He earned his undergraduate degrees in Accounting and Sport Management from St. John Fisher College in 2015, where he has served as an adjunct professor teaching Sport Finance and Baseball Analytics.
20 May
NHL 31 in 31 Season Review: Montreal Canadiens
For the next 31 days, AFP Analytics is going to take a critical look back at how the season played out for all 31 NHL teams, starting with the last place team (Buffalo Sabres) and ending with the Stanley Cup Champions. In addition to a season recap, we will look at some major decisions the team will be facing this offseason.
Montreal Canadiens
Next up in our 31 in 31 season review is a look at the Montreal. If I were to list the order of GM jobs I would want to take from most to least desirable with regards to the team’s current situation, Montreal would be in my bottom five. This season certainly was a disappointment as they dealt with major injuries to key players, namely Carey Price and Shea Weber, however, I don’t think having either of those players at full health going forward is going to majorly change the team’s fortunes.
Season Bright Spots
I have some sympathy for Montreal fans as their team really did not have a lot go right for them this season and the future doesn’t look any better. The biggest reason for optimism though for Montreal is the fact they finished with a 50.53 in Corsi For % good for 15th overall. Corsi For % is usually a good indicator of where teams are headed and Montreal’s does signal a little optimism for fans.
Canadien fans had to be pleased with the production they saw from Paul Byron and Nic Deslauriers did for them this season. Paul Bryon has now put two good seasons together for Montreal, scoring 20 goals in each while also putting up positive possession numbers at 5v5. The most encouraging thing though about Byron is he was able to maintain a very high shooting %.
Nic Deslauriers came over from the Buffalo Sabres in exchange for defenseman Zach Redmond. I would hope Canadien fans didn’t expect much production from Nic Deslauriers when he came in. Hopefully, Deslauriers’s offense contribution was a pleasant surprise to Montreal fans. However, they probably shouldn’t get overly excited as Deslauriers’s shooting % was nearly 5% higher than his previous career high and he had the third worst CF% (46.63%) and Relative CF% (-3.43%) among players to play at least 30 games. I’m not so sure giving him a midseason contract decision was the smartest move (maybe for GM Marc Bergevin it was but he’s set the bar pretty low).
Brenden Gallagher is always one of those players that I don’t think he’s really that good but then go back and look at his stats and change my tone. He probably has been one of Montreal’s best players the past few years and he comes at a price of $3,175,000. An absolute bargain for a player that has the best possession numbers on the team (among regular players) and led the team in overall scoring.
Major Disappointments
The obvious place to start is with the injuries to the team’s two biggest stars. Shea Weber’s injury is hopefully not one that will lead to him having lingering effects. Weber has been a very durable player for his career so Montreal can be hopeful that this was a freaky blip on the injury radar. I don’t know if we can say the same for Carey Price.
Carey price has now had significant injuries in two of the last three seasons. Two seasons ago he struggled to recover from a knee injury and this year missed time with another lower body injury and a concussion. When he did play, he didn’t perform to the level that has become expected of him. By the way, next year Carey Price counts against the Canadiens’ cap for $10.5M for the next eight seasons. Spending more on one goalie than most teams spend on two seems like a suboptimal way to run a team, especially when that goalie is 30 years old and is signed until he is 38 years old. If I were a Canadien fan, I would be a little concerned.
Alex Galchenyuk and Max Pacioretty are two other players Canadien fans had to be disappointed with this season. There is probably a little more reason for concern for Galchenyuk than Pacioretty. Galchenyuk was a negative possession player for only the second time in his career. A deeper dive also shows that Galchenyuk played his most 5v5 minutes with Jonathan Drouin and dragged down Drouin’s possession numbers. Drouin’s numbers improved from 48.36% to 53.29% when he played away from Galchenyuk. Pacioretty, on the other hand, had very solid possession stats (a 5v5 Corsi For% of 53.31%).
There is a reason for optimism for both players and it starts and ends with their miserable shooting percentages this year. Both players had their career worst shooting percentages. A player’s shooting percentage generally will regress to the mean, meaning over time a player’s shooting percentage will move toward their career average. For example, Pacioretty had a career shooting percentage of 8.2% (during 5v5 play) heading into last season. This season he shot 4.72%, bringing his average down to 7.8%. We would expect to see Pacioretty to have a shooting percentage around 8% next season.
I also think there has to be a little bit of a bad taste in the mouths of Canadien fans when it comes to the Jonathan Drouin-Mikhail Sergachev trade. Drouin wasn’t bad and is signed to a reasonable long-term contract but it has to hurt to see the player traded away excel immediately and play a key role in Tampa Bay’s successful season. It also doesn’t help the team likely filled their void on blueline by handing out a long-term deal to Karl Alzner. Call me crazy but I would much rather have Sergachev and not have Drouin and Alzner (mostly Alzner). However, couple that with the continued sting of the PK Subban trade and fans must want Bergevin to be banned from using his phone.
Offseason Plans
Yikes. Remember when I said taking charge of this team would be one of the least desirable in sports? Well its mostly because the team is going to be hard-pressed to make too many major moves. The Canadiens, much like many of the other teams who finished this low in the standings, really lack top end talent. Outside of maybe Drouin, I don’t see any player on this roster who truly should be playing top line minutes for this team. They are also incredibly weak down the middle. It’s possible that bringing in some true top center talent, could go a long way to solving problems.
I would be surprised if Alex Galchenyuk is on the roster opening night. He seems to be a player that could benefit from a fresh start. There has been speculation that a trade with the Buffalo Sabres centered around center Ryan O’Reilly and Galchenyuk would make a lot of sense. I don’t know if I see the fit. The obvious detractor would be due to the two teams being rivals in their division. I don’t love using that argument as a reason to not make a trade.
Instead, I don’t think Montreal benefits from adding another long-term contract at a high dollar amount that they will likely regret in another year or two. Swapping O’Reilly for Galchenyuk would bring the team’s salary cap space to just above $10.5M. If they retain their restricted players for around $1M each, They’re quickly down to around $6.5M in salary cap space. This really isn’t much space to add the talent they need unless they make some other move.
That other move could involve Max Pacioretty, their current captain, who will be entering the last season of his contract. He’s signed for a very reasonable $4.5M and will hit the age of 30 next season. I would look to trade him this offseason. I think he could fetch a solid return from a contending team and would clear salary cap space for a significant player. The worst move the Canadiens could make is to sign him to a big dollar, long-term extension.
If you have read the entire offseason plan and connect the dots, it would be logical to think John Tavares would be a fit for the Canadiens. I agree. However, to make it happen, it probably means moving one or both of Galchenyuk and Pacioretty for prospects and picks. In other words, signing Tavares would likely be the only major roster change that would have an impact on the team next year. Tavares is really, really good but I’m not sure signing him to a deal that is at least at the level of Carey Price will really help this team. The upgrade Tavares would provide over the players the team will likely have to move seems like it would be less than you would hope if you are bringing in a star player.
Unfortunately for Canadien fans, it looks like the team is going to be spinning their wheels for many years to come. They have too much money locked up in long-term deals to players who are unlikely to perform at the level of their pay. The team has to hope it can add some impactful players in this year’s draft. Having the third overall pick and four second-round picks should certainly help, but many of the players they take will likely be two or three years away from the NHL. Fans better hope the possession numbers the team achieved this year were not a fluke and carry over into next season and translate to a better season finish.
Please be sure to check in again tomorrow as we take an in-depth look at the Detroit Red Wings. If you enjoyed this review, please follow us on Twitter, @afpanalytics, and share it with your friends!
Stats have been pulled from NaturalStatTrick.com and Corsica.hockey. Salary info from Capfriendly.com
KYLE STICH is the Director of AFP Analytics. In addition, Mr. Stich is a tax specialist and Director of Operations at AFP Consulting LLC, whose clientele include professional athletes performing services on three separate continents. Mr. Stich earned his Master of Science in Sport Management with a Concentration in Sport Analytics from Columbia University in 2017. He earned his undergraduate degrees in Accounting and Sport Management from St. John Fisher College in 2015, where he has served as an adjunct professor teaching Sport Finance and Baseball Analytics.
18 May
NHL 31 in 31 Season Review: Ottawa Senators
For the next 31 days, AFP Analytics is going to take a critical look back at how the season played out for all 31 NHL teams, starting with the last place team (Buffalo Sabres) and ending with the Stanley Cup Champions. In addition to a season recap, we will look at some major decisions the team will be facing this offseason.
Ottawa Senators
Next up in our 31 in 31 season review is a look at the Ottawa Senators. After coming one overtime goal from reaching the Stanley Cup Finals, the Senators fell finished the season second to last. The Senators got off to a blazing start this season even with star Erik Karlsson, easing into the season after his offseason surgery. Then the team traded Kyle Turris in the trade to land them Matt Duchene. The team won their first two games after the trade but then fell off a cliff. As the free fall took place, serious questions arose as to whether the team would move superstar defenseman Erik Karlsson as it became more and more likely that Karlsson would test the free agent market next offseason.
Season Bright Spots
Erik Karlsson was still really, really good despite having what had to have been the toughest season of his career. Karlsson started off still recovering from surgery, faced continued scrutiny regarding his contract, and decided to end his season early when his wife tragically lost the couples’ unborn child. Karlsson still managed to play in 71 games and lead the team in relative Corsi For Percentage (5.67) among the team’s regular skaters. For those unfamiliar with this statistic, the basic premise is that when Karlsson was on the ice, the Senators had a 5.67% better shot share.
Senator fans have been salivating to see what Thomas Chabot could do as his potential seemed sky high. I don’t see how anyone Senator fan cannot be excited about the future of Chabot. Chabot is another smooth skating, puck-moving defenseman that I would love to have on my team any day. He finished fourth among regular players in relative Corsi For Percentage (3.25%). He’s likely to only get better as he gains NHL experience. Having Chabot and Karlsson on the blueline is something most teams would kill to have. It’s unfortunate Ottawa owner Eugene Melynk does not run one of the teams as he seems more concerned with maintaining an internal salary cap.
Mike Hoffman and Mark Stone both performed well once again relative to what they get paid. Hoffman’s production dropped slightly from last but that would be expected on a team that regressed so severely. He still produced 20 goals, 56 points, and was a positive possession player on the second to worst team while only counting against the cap for just over $5,187,500.
I might be biased when it comes to Mark Stone as he led my fantasy team to a championship but he was another valuable player for the Ottawa Senators. Stone finished tied for the team lead in points with none other than Erik Karlsson and was also third on the team in Relative Corsi For Percentage (4.67%). Stone did all that while being paid $3.5M due to his status as a restricted free agent. Mark Stone is arbitration eligible and likely looking at a fairly significant raise this offseason. His numbers indicate he definitely should be paid much more than this season’s $3.5M. I’m not going to do Stone’s agent’s job for him and make his arbitration argument, at least not in public.
Major Disappointments
I think all of Senator fans’ disappointments have to start with a discussion of their ownership group. Let’s not sugarcoat this, I think a good portion of the Senators’ problems could be solved if their ownership’s top priority was spending whatever it takes to put the best product on the ice every year. The fact that many people thought Erik Karlsson was going to be traded at the deadline and now it seems a near certainty that he will be moved this summer because he wants to be paid his worth is pure lunacy. Under no circumstances should a team be looking to trade arguably the best defenseman in the entire NHL simply because they don’t want to pay him his market value. I might write this differently if the Senators have multiple superstars causing them to push up against the salary cap but that is far from the reality.
The next place to discuss that also reflects on ownership is the fact that Guy Boucher is still employed. Yes, Ottawa structured and bored their way to within an overtime goal of the Stanley Cup Finals last season but they were awful this year. Boucher’s system is outdated. The Senators aren’t a fun team to watch and his lineup decisions left a lot to be desired. I’m not saying every team moves on from their coach under the same circumstances but many likely do. However, there is no way Melynk would pay another coach to not coach his team.
I am sure there will be people that disagree with my inclusion of the Matt Duchene trade here but I am going to do it anyways. I am not the biggest Matt Duchene fan. I’m not going to say he isn’t a good player, but I will say I wouldn’t have given up what Ottawa. I do not know much about Shane Bowers, the prospect Ottawa traded but I think Ottawa is really going to come to regret the draft picks they gave up plus Kyle Turris. I would rather pay Kyle Turris the same $6M and retain my prospect and draft pick. A correlation between Ottawa’s free fall and their trade of Turris does not necessarily mean there is causation, I wonder how much of an impact the trade had on team chemistry.
Offseason Plans
This offseason is franchise defining for the Ottawa Senators. The Senators have two first-round picks and have to make a decision on Erik Karlsson. The only way Ottawa should go into the season with Erik Karlsson on the roster is if he has signed a long-term extension. If Karlsson doesn’t sign an extension with the team this offseason, I doubt his position is going to change over the course of the season. At this point, Ottawa’s leverage in a potential trade will be highest this summer. There will be the most potential suitors and they still in theory would have another opportunity to trade him. However, if they wait until the trade deadline, that option disappears. I think the toughest regard for the Karlsson trade is if Ottawa attempts to execute it prior to the draft to add a third first-round pick. Regardless, Ottawa will also likely be able to recoup a 2019 first round pick, that they have decided to give to Colorado to complete the Matt Duchene trade.
Speaking of giving up the 2019 first-round pick, I think Ottawa should think long and hard about it. The chances of Ottawa picking higher than fourth next year is approximately 50-50 if next season sees Ottawa finishing last. Though the concern for Ottawa certainly has to be they finish last or potentially win the lottery next year and miss out on the next highly touted forward prospect, Jack Hughes.
I don’t think Ottawa has this type of thinking because you don’t want to believe it as a GM but Ottawa is coming off a 30th place finish and will likely be trading their superstar player. I have a tough time believing Ottawa will improve next season. Even though this year’s fourth overall pick is incredibly valuable, it is known. Unbridled optimism is a very common downfall that many GMs fall victim to. If I was Ottawa, I would think long and hard about giving their pick to Colorado this year. If they are going to go into this offseason not planning to add, as tough of a decision as it is, I would give up fourth overall, with the mindset of recouping a first round pick in the Erik Karlsson trade.
Speaking of an Erik Karlsson trade, we will now move to Bobby Ryan, who it was rumored the Senators would like to include in any potential Karlsson trade to get out from under his contract. I am going to scream to Ottawa: DON’T DO IT! Bobby Ryan is still a decent player, though overpaid for his production, but what you are essentially doing is dramatically diminishing your return. First, no team is going to give up anything close to what they would if they were to trade for just Karlsson. Second, you are dramatically cutting down the number of teams that could potentially trade for Karlsson. For a team already lacking top talent, I don’t know if subtracting Ryan and adding another hole is a smart decision.
The Senators are clearly a team lacking top end talent and two of definite top guys, Mark Stone and Mike Hoffman, have questions surrounding their future. Mark Stone is up for arbitration and will likely will an award higher than the Senators would like to pay him (if it gets that far). It seems unlikely the Senators would walk away from a Mark Stone arbitration decision but with a stingy owner, I would never say never. I would look to give Stone a long-term contract and make him part of the future solution. Another short-term deal, signals to me that Stone will be gone in the near future and leave the team devoid of even more top talent.
Mike Hoffman is another player whose name inexplicitly surfaced in trade rumors last offseason. With any other team and any other owner, this is not the case. But Melynk is not any other owner and high paid players who underachieve at all will have their names surface in trade talks. If I am Ottawa and trying to turn things around quickly, Hoffman and Stone and players I look to build around. However, I wonder if the smarter decision for Ottawa is to tear it down and bottom out (it certainly would be cheaper!). In that case, those are players you can move to really speed up the rebuilding process.
Besides Karlsson, the Senators face two other decisions on their blueline with two more arbitration eligible players in Cody Ceci and Fredrik Claesson. If Ceci still has value across the league, I would look to move him for assets. He could be a player that would make sense to include in a “hockey trade,” where both teams move a player who isn’t living up to what their perceived potential is.
The numbers like Fredrik Claesson and he is a player who would probably be a great partner for a Erik Karlsson (if he is still there) or Thomas Chabot. Claesson’s Relative Corsi For Percentage is basically even, meaning the Senators perform no better or worse when Claesson is on the ice. Claesson’s Relative Corsi For % is where it is because the team struggles to generate shots when he is on the ice. Claesson was the top regular player on Ottawa in Relative Corsi Against, basically meaning he excels in a shot suppressing, shut-down role. Pairing Claesson with a shot-generating defenseman like Karlsson or Chabot would probably be an ideal match. This past season saw Claesson play the most with Karlsson out of any partner and he exceled in that role, posting a 3.5% Relative Corsi For Percentage. I would look to keep Claesson while moving Karlsson.
Overall, Ottawa will be one of the most interesting teams to watch this season as the hockey world will be tuned in to see what happens with Erik Karlsson, who might become the biggest star in hockey to be traded in the salary cap era. The decision on Karlsson should define the rest of the offseason plan for Ottawa as moving the star should probably move Ottawa into rebuilding mode. If they are going to rebuild, they should go all in and move the likes of Stone and Hoffman. Ottawa came really close with their core and they have already started to dismantle it with the trade this year of Brassard. If Karlsson is also traded, it makes little sense to keep the same core around as it is likely the achieved the best they possibly could.
Please be sure to check in again tomorrow as we take an in-depth look (maybe not quite as deep) at the Arizona Coyotes. If you enjoyed this review, please follow us on Twitter, @afpanalytics, and share it with your friends!
Stats have been pulled from NaturalStatTrick.com and Corsica.hockey. Salary info from Capfriendly.com
KYLE STICH is the Director of AFP Analytics. In addition, Mr. Stich is a tax specialist and Director of Operations at AFP Consulting LLC, whose clientele include professional athletes performing services on three separate continents. Mr. Stich earned his Master of Science in Sport Management with a Concentration in Sport Analytics from Columbia University in 2017. He earned his undergraduate degrees in Accounting and Sport Management from St. John Fisher College in 2015, where he has served as an adjunct professor teaching Sport Finance and Baseball Analytics.
17 May
NHL 31 in 31 Season Review: Buffalo Sabres
For the next 31 days, AFP Analytics is going to take a critical look back at how the season played out for all 31 NHL teams, starting with the last place team (Buffalo Sabres) and ending with the Stanley Cup Champions. In addition to a season recap, we will look at some major decisions the team will be facing this offseason.
Buffalo Sabres
First up in our 31 in 31 season review is a look at the lottery winning Buffalo Sabres. The Sabres came into the season with heightened expectations. They had a new GM in Jason Botterill and new coach in Phil Housley who was hired to try to bring a more exciting style of play that would hopefully jump start the offense. The team’s generational talent, Jack Eichel, was supposed to have his breakout season and maybe if the stars aligned, the Sabres would be able to declare their rebuild over with their first playoff berth since the 2010-2011. The exact opposite happened and at the end of the season the team and fans were just left shaking their heads, left with more questions than answers.
Season Bright Spots
I could write this sentence and be done and there probably wouldn’t be many arguments, but I think there are a few things worth bringing attention to. There is one player on the Sabres’ roster that I have always shouted from the highest mountains, over a loudspeaker, to try to get the world (or maybe just Sabres observers) to see and hear is actually really good. That player is Sam Reinhart. Reinhart’s biggest problem has never been whether he is a good player or not, it is admittedly, his consistency. There were games when he was flat out awful, but those games were not just in the first half of the season. A lot of people observing the Sabres thought Reinhart was only good in the second half of the season. That would be true if you only want to look at goals and point production.
There a few reasons I like Sam Reinhart so much. First, he is a very, very smart player. If you watch him closely, he more often than not is in the spot the puck is going. Unfortunately, the not is usually in the defensive zone, which is where observers usually notice his mistakes. However, there are many times in the offensive zone where he beats the puck to a spot because he knows where it is going. He also is tremendous in giving a target for a breakout passes in the neutral zone. The problem is the Sabres lack players to make that pass. From a numbers perspective, Reinhart was one of the few Sabres to finish the season with positive possession numbers with a CF% of 51.43%, best among regular players. His relative Corsi For % was also the best on the team among regular players at 5.27%, meaning the Sabres improved their shot share by that amount when he was on the ice.
Beside Reinhart, there are a few notable players that are worth discussing. Jack Eichel showed flashes of dominance but another freaky ankle injury dampened the season results. If I were running the team, Eichel wouldn’t have seen the ice again after the injury even though he did finish the season on a high note after struggling mightily immediately after returning from the ankle injury. Brenden Guehle and Casey Mittelstadt also showed promise in their limited action at the end of the season. Guehle was a positive possession player (51.27 Corsi For %, 4.57% Relative Corsi) in 17 games, while Mittelstadt finished at close to a point a game, with five points in six games at all situations but also a staggering 3.51 points per 60 during 5v5 play. I also have liked Casey Nelson and Evan Rodrigues from the start of their Sabre careers but Buffalo is going need to them to take a bigger step forward next season if they are to be counted on as high-end, depth players going forward.
The brightest spot though has the be the lottery win and the ability to draft franchise defenseman, Rasmus Dahlin. This will be discussed later in the offseason plan.
Major Disappointments
How much room should I take up for this section? Where to start? These are just a few of the questions that are the metaphorical low-hanging fruit. In reality, things could not have gone much worse for Buffalo this year. The Sabres actually slightly improved their 5v5 Corsi For Percentage to 47.61% from 47.23% though their biggest problem was they struggled mightily to generate shots at 5v5 play seeing their total shots toward goal go down from 3486 to 3381 at 5v5 play. That is 1.28 less shots per game for a team that was supposed to play more up-tempo and take a step forward this season.
The question is can the Sabres sustain being this bad? The answer is unlikely. The starting point has to be the goaltending. The team finished with the fourth worst save percentage at 91.61%. Additionally, their two regular goalies, Robin Lehner and Chad Johnson, both had an actual save percentage below what was expected of them. The question is were they “unlucky” or is their skill just not at the level it should be. The answer is the later, as their results the last three seasons show both goalies’ aggregate statistics result in a save percentage worse than what would be expected of an average goalie.
Until this season, I didn’t think goaltending was even worth discussing when it came to places to improve for the Sabres. Former GM Tim Murray had mistakenly traded a first-round draft pick for goaltender Robin Lehner, who was promptly injured and missed almost the entirety of his first season with the team. Up until this season, Lehner was fine. Nothing more, nothing less. There was zero reason for the team to look for an upgrade as any marginal upgrade never would have been worth the cost associated with it. However, now seems to be the time.
Chad Johnson also struggled for much of the season in the backup role so his status also will be up in the air heading into the offseason. The Sabres also had a league worst 6.14% shooting percentage during 5v5 play. Combine that with their 91.61% save percentage and the Sabres finished with a league worst PDO of .977, a stat that should regress toward 1 over time, and it is likely the team will improve next year regardless of any roster changes.
The next place to move is the team’s highest paid players. Here we find Ryan O’Reilly, Kyle Okposo, Jason Pominville, Zach Bogosian, and Matt Moulson. Ryan O’Reilly certainly raised eyebrows with his end of season comments about losing passion for the game, but he would have landed on this list regardless of what he said at season’s end. O’Reilly is a good player and has given what he always has in terms of production. The problem is that level of production is not at the level expected out of a player being paid $7.5 million per year. The other problem is O’Reilly is not the best skater in a league where teams are finally figuring out that the path to success is speed. As he ages, this is going to become more and more of an issue.
Speaking of lack of speed, we arrive at Matt Moulson and Jason Pominville. Yes, Matt Moulson is still a part of the Sabres organization though it would be easy to forget considered he was banished to the Ontario Reign (Los Angeles Kings’ AHL team) because the team felt he didn’t bring anything to the table in Buffalo. I am not going to sit here and say Moulson is still a good player but he really wouldn’t have been any worse than what Jordan Nolan brought to the team. However, at the time Moulson was waived, the front office needed to do something to shake up the team and firing Housley was not an option.
Bringing back Jason Pominville was a fan favorite move that started off great when he was scoring in bunches playing with Jack Eichel and Evander Kane. However, as the season wore on and he spent time away from Eichel, it became apparent that Pominville was no longer the player he was last time in Buffalo. Pominville’s underlying numbers actually seem to indicate he still can be a useful player as he was the best possession player after Sam Reinhart. However, his footspeed has left him. Bringing Pominville back to Buffalo was likely a necessity as adding Marco Scandella as a top 4 defenseman was a huge need last offseason. The problem is for a team really needing to push the pace of play, Pominville is not going to be able to provide that anymore.
We now arrive at Kyle Okposo and Zach Bogosian. Both players are tough to gauge because I think injuries/health issues are the main reason both have landed in this section. I truly believe a large portion of Kyle Okposo’s struggles this season were due to the fact his summer training was severely hurt by the lingering health scare he faced at the end of last season. I could be wrong, but Okposo’s relatively strong play at the end of the season gives reason for hope.
I have never been the biggest Zach Bogosian fan as I often see him struggling with positioning and recognizing the play but I also think he is a player who could help this team as a bottom 4 defenseman if he can stay healthy. And that is the big if. Although Bogosian has been a negative possession player (Corsi For %) for all but one season of his career, the Sabres have acutally performed better, in terms of possession, when Zach Bogosian has been on the ice in two of his three seasons in Buffalo. Like many other players on the team, he has been put in a role that has asked too much of him during his time in the organization.
At a team level, there are a few issues that once again reared its head again this season. First, the team struggles mightily to breakout of their own zone. Defensemen struggle to make stretch passes and forwards struggle to give them a target, resulting in icings and extended defensive zone time. Part of this could also be the lack of speed across the team. An issue Botterill will have to address this season.
The next issue that has been apparent for the Sabres the past few years is depth scoring. Last season it took three games until a player not on Jack Eichel’s line to score a goal and things did not improve from there. The Sabres received very little production outside of their top two lines for the entirety of the season. Strong teams in today’s NHL can role three or even four lines that can score goals on any given shift.
In a league where teams are trending more and more toward speed and an up-tempo style of play, the Sabres played even slower than they did last season. One of the things Housley and Botterill focused on when they were introduced was their desire to play an up-tempo style of hockey and attack teams with speed. It quickly became apparent that the make-up of the team would not allow them to do so.
Finally, there has to be a level of disappointment with the return Botterill received in exchange for Evander Kane. I was fully in support of going into the season with Kane on the roster. I even would have liked to see him as a member of the team going forward, but it quickly became apparent that Kane would not be on the roster at season’s end. Did Botterill wait too long to make a deal or was the market just not there? We might never truly know but Sabres fans certainly have to be disappointed with the return especially seeing the impact Kane has made in his limited time with the Sharks. Botterill should have pushed to add more incentives in the deal dependent on Kane’s play. Even if the Sabres end up with the Sharks’ 2019 first-round pick, the return relative to what Kane contributed seems low, especially when comparing the Kane trade with the Stastny and Nash trades.
Offseason Plans
The Sabres hope to become next year’s Colorado Avalanche, going from worst to the playoffs. Nothing is impossible, but if the team goes into next season with a similar roster to this season, it seems unlikely. Many of Botterill’s moves in his first offseason in charge seemed to be geared at reversing the mess he inherited, a bare cupboard of prospects, one of worst (if not the worst) bluelines in the NHL, and lack of team speed. Considering the level of disappointment, it is time for Botterill to put his own stamp on this team. However, it is hard to fathom the Sabres being this bad again next season. Their possession numbers slightly improved at 5v5 and they had the league worst PDO, driven by a league worst shooting percentage. By sheer regression to the mean (having the PDO move toward 1), the Sabres have to improve next year. Some savvy offseason moves, could see the Sabres at least in contention much later into the season.
It might be truly amazing how one ping-pong ball may change the whole complexion of the Sabres’ offseason plans. To be clear, Rasmus Dahlin will be a Buffalo Sabre come June 22nd. Dahlin is the Connor McDavid of defensemen and any argument against taking a bona fide top-pair defenseman first overall is plain silly.
Before getting into each position group specifically, let’s take a quick look at the potential future salary cap issues the Sabres may face if they don’t start thinking about it now. Jack Eichel’s $10M cap hit takes effect next season. Sam Reinhart is also up for an extension. Ryan O’Reilly and Kyle Okposo each have six years left, Rasmus Ristolanien five, and in three years the Sabres will likely have to shell out fairly substantial contracts for Casey Mittelstadt and Rasmus Dahlin. At some point tough decisions have to be made and now might be the time considering the need for change in Buffalo. It also is better to make moves before you are backed into a corner and have to sell your assets under face value. I’m looking at you Chicago Blackhawks.
Before the first item on Botterill’s list had to be finding a top-flight defenseman. Once the Sabres draft Dahlin, the defensemen that will be competing for regular playing time next season will be Dahlin, Rasmus Ristolanien, Marco Scandella, Brenden Guehle, Casey Nelson, Jake McCabe, Zach Bogosian, Lawrence Pilut (rumored signing), and Nathan Beaulieu. The Sabres are suddenly rich on their backend but still could afford to add another top end defenseman as most of these players project to be at best second pair defenders.
Brenden Guehle has shown tremendous promise in his limited action in Buffalo and could project as a top pair defenseman. Guehle playing with Dahlin would be lots of fun to watch but I don’t see Housley starting those two players off together. Casey Nelson is a young player who the Sabres prevented from hitting the open market, re-signing him at the beginning of May to a very team friendly contract. Though he will never project to be a top pair defenseman, he could factor in as a solid depth option for the coming years.
Somewhere there is an odd man out on the blueline. Botterill would probably love to be able to get out from Zach Bogosian’s contract but finding a taker looks like it will be tough. Nathan Beaulieu was worth a third-round pick gamble but right now sits outside of the top six on the Sabres’ depth chart. He could be a player moved this offseason but the return would be nothing Sabres fans would get excited about.
This brings us to three players who have played substantial minutes on the Sabres’ top-pair the past two seasons, Jake McCabe, Rasmus Ristolainen, and Marco Scandella. If I were to wager, my money would be on one of Jake McCabe or Rasmus Ristolainen being traded this offseason. It seems unlikely Botterill would move Scandella after acquiring him last offseason and seeing steady play from him for much of the season.
Rasmus Ristolainen has been over used and maybe even misused in his entire time with the Sabres. Ristolanien has always been one of the players at the center of the analytic vs. eye-test debate. Let’s be clear, he has the talent of a top four defenseman. The question is in what capacity should he be used. To me (and many others), he would continue to play with a competent partner, but have less overall ice time, especially on the penalty kill.
I think Ristolainen still has a fairly high trade value and could fetch a pretty nice return for Buffalo. However, if I were deciding to keep one of Ristolainen or McCabe, I keep Ristolainen because he still has a higher ceiling. Many teams would likely value McCabe as an addition to a trade package as he is still young, under team control, and plays a steady game, limiting quality shots on his side of the ice, as Scott Cullen of TSN pointed out in his Sabres’ offseason overview. However, he hasn’t ever put up positive possession numbers at 5v5 and this season was the first where the Sabres’ possession numbers improved while he was on the ice. Basically, McCabe is a decent player, on a decent contract, but someone has to be the odd man out (especially on the left-side) and he might be the guy. He has no traits that would be impossible to replace and also would likely be an attractive option to other teams that could actually fetch a decent return.
Transitioning to goaltending, the plan all season was for Linus Ullmark to take over as the starter next year in Buffalo. His playoff struggles (likely a result of lingering effects of a concussion) should not change that. With Ullmark likely being the full-time goalie, retaining Lehner at a salary above $4 million does not seem practical. The question here is whether the Sabres are ready to have Ullmark take on a NHL starting goalie workload or if they look to have him split time with a veteran. If the answer is the latter, who is that veteran? Out of a relatively uninspiring goalie free agent class, the only names that I would be comfortable rolling with as a backup are Jonathan Bernier, Anton Khidobin, Carter Hutton, and maybe Chad Johnson.
This brings us to the forwards where the Sabres have the biggest decisions to be made. Benoit Pouliot, Jordan Nolan, and Jacob Josefson should be gone and replaced by players from their AHL affiliate, the Rochester Americans, which should provide the team younger, faster talent at a low cost. Jack Eichel will be the top center and Casey Mittelstadt will likely join him down the middle. Kyle Okposo will definitely be back on the wing. Jason Pominville will likely be playing his final season. After that, the questions begin.
Let’s get Scott Wilson and Matt Moulson out of the way first. Wilson is a fine role player that played decent for Buffalo toward season’s end and the Sabres could bring him back or they could easily find another player just like him. If I was making the decision, I look for a player more skilled but wouldn’t be averse to keeping him around for another season. Many are speculating that Moulson could be bought out this offseason but to me that is just extending the pain. The team should just retain him for one more season, see if they can get anything out of him when the season opens and if not bury him in the minors to finish out his contract.
If you’ve read everything I’ve written until now, what I am about to discuss will probably not come as a surprise. I would re-sign Sam Reinhart to an eight-year contract because mathematically, it makes the most sense. According to Matt Cane’s (@Cane_Matt) prediction model, he has Sam Reinhart likely signing a two-year bridge deal, carrying an average annual value (AAV) of approximately $3.4M. The model predicts that an eight-year deal would have an AAV of approximately $5.14M.
Let’s assume that the Sabres will want to have Reinhart for eight additional years. If they don’t, they can always buy him out before he turns 25 for a cost of approximately $1.7M per year, if the contract aligns with Cane’s prediction model. Working off the Sabres’ desire to have Reinhart for a total of eight-years, some very simple present value (using a discount rate of 4.7%) brings us to the conclusion that the eight-year deal is a no-brainer. If the Sabres do go the bridge option (let’s assume two years plus six), Reinhart’s second contract would have to less than $5.8M for the cap hit in today’s dollars to be less than the present value of the contract with an AAV of $5.14M over eight years. Basically, the Sabres would have to think Reinhart is going to get worse over the next two years for the bridge option to make sense. If that is the case, the team shouldn’t even be looking to keep him.
Not only does it mathematically make sense, the team also has to be concerned over their future cap hits and unnecessarily allowing Reinhart’s cap hit to balloon would be very unwise. The only question is would the increase in cap hit be potentially worth it to have Reinhart for 10 years versus eight. Considering Reinhart will be 30 in eight years, having him under contract for an additional year or two might be regretted at that point as well. At some point, I will do a more elaborate analysis on this concept so please follow @afpanalytics on Twitter to see it when I do.
This leaves us with three forwards who have been regulars in the Sabres’ lineups the last few seasons, Zemgus Girgensons, Johan Larsson, and Ryan O’Reilly. I could see all three of them traded this offseason. The first two likely wouldn’t fetch much in terms of return but would open roster spots that could be filled with speedier players.
The Sabres’ biggest question this offseason will be what to do with Ryan O’Reilly. His end of season comments had no impact on what I would do if I were running the team. To me, the Sabres have to decide between O’Reilly and Reinhart. I clearly favor Reinhart. It is also likely that O’Reilly’s future role on the team is as a third-line center who plays special teams. You just can’t play $7.5M for a player to play that role. I also imagine O’Reilly packaged with McCabe would allow the Sabres to make a trade that would immediately improve their roster. I don’t think that package gets the team a top pair defenseman but it certainly could get them a high-end winger, which the team is severely lacking. I’m just spit-balling here: I wonder if a trade if a trade revolving around Ryan O’Reilly and Vladimir Tarasenko could make any sense. I think a trade where the Sabres include O’Reilly, McCabe, and a prospect not named Mittlelstadt or Guehle for Tarasenko could make some sense for both teams.
I don’t know if dipping heavily into the free agent pool would be a wise move for the Sabres. If I were to target any players for the team to add, I would look at Michael Grabner and David Perron who would provide the speed and depth scoring the team desires. James Neal and James van Riemsdyk are the type of high end scoring wingers this team needs but if they hit the open market, they will likely come at a long-term and high price tag, something the Sabres must avoid if they hope to have any sort of sustained success.
Please be sure to check in again tomorrow as we take an in-depth look (maybe not quite as deep) at the Ottawa Senators. If you enjoyed this review, please follow us on Twitter, @afpanalytics, and share it with your friends!
Stats have been pulled from NaturalStatTrick.com and Corsica.hockey. Salary info from Capfriendly.com
KYLE STICH is the Director of AFP Analytics. In addition, Mr. Stich is a tax specialist and Director of Operations at AFP Consulting LLC, whose clientele include professional athletes performing services on three separate continents. Mr. Stich earned his Master of Science in Sport Management with a Concentration in Sport Analytics from Columbia University in 2017. He earned his undergraduate degrees in Accounting and Sport Management from St. John Fisher College in 2015, where he has served as an adjunct professor teaching Sport Finance and Baseball Analytics.