23 Jun
Quick Picks: Under the Radar 2023 UFAs
With NHL free agency getting closer and closer (July 1st), I’m continuing to look over the free agent class and evaluate which players I believe would be good targets. Today’s article is focused on players who I believe could provide good value on the contract we have projected for them. The intention here is to identify a center, two wingers, two defensemen, and one goalie. A starting lineup of some of my favorite value targets on the unrestricted free agent (UFA) market. Both player performance, as well as our AFPAnalytics contract projections, are factored into this process.
Center – Evan Rodrigues (COL) – Projected 3 years, $3,708,278.95AAV
Rodrigues is an ideal third line forward who certainly has the ability to move up in the lineup if needed. This contract doesn’t break the bank for someone who could be a second line center in a pinch. Playoff teams need players like this.
Left Wing – Jonathan Drouin (MTL) – Projected 1 year, $1,978,115.00AAV
If a team is looking for someone on a cheap deal who has the potential to outperform his salary, Drouin could be that guy. A playmaker who needs to find a comfortable situation, he may be able to perform on a good top six line and reset his value.
Right Wing – Tomas Tatar (NJD) – Projected 3 years, $3,368,330,36AAV
Tatar has been one of my favorite middle six wingers in the NHL for the past few seasons. He has some very solid underlying numbers that suggest he would outperform this contract.
Left Defense – Calvin de Haan (CAR) – Projected 2 years, $1,626,108.97AAV
Need a bottom pair defenseman? Calvin de Haan has quietly become a very solid one for the Carolina Hurricanes. This contract is about what a team should be looking to pay a bottom pair defenseman, but picking de Haan would be choosing wisely. He is solid, and others at or above this rate of pay might not actually be as good. A sneaky depth addition.
Right Defense – Connor Clifton (BOS) – Projected 2 years, $1,743,647.00AAV
To continue with possible sneaky depth additions, Connor Clifton has become a real solid presence on the bottom pair in Boston. I’d be curious to see if he goes to a non-contender in an attempt to get more minutes to build on his value. Regardless, like de Haan, he should be able to provide great play on a bottom pair.
Goalie – Anthony Stolarz (ANA) – Projected 2 years, $1,566,763.64AAV
Stolarz is unlikely to be a goalie who handles more than a backup’s share of games. Having said that, he has quietly been a very solid number two option behind John Gibson in Anaheim. While this season was slightly down for him, he had an awful defense in front of him. If I’m a team with a clear starter but am in need of someone that can be relied on for 20-25ish games, Stolarz is my pick from this free agent class.
Honorable mentions:
C Pius Suter (DET) – Projected 2 years, $1,853,271.79AAV
LW Danton Heinen (PIT) – Projected 3 years, $2,452,263.16AAV
RW Craig Smith (WSH) – Projected 1 year, $1,278,904.05AAV
LD Erik Gustafsson (TOR) – Projected 3 years, $3,414,520.73AAV
RD Kevin Shattenkirk (ANA) – Projected 2 years, $3,023,627.78AAV
G Alex Nedeljkovic (DET) – Projected 1 year, $1,245,402.50AAV
Featured Image provided by Getty Images
22 Jul
What Should Evan Rodrigues’ Next Contract Look Like?
On July 21st, the team offer and player ask in arbitration for Evan Rodrigues were reported and Sabres’ fans on Twitter did not seem happy with what the team might end up paying Rodrigues. The Sabres were at $1.5M while Rodrigues’s camp was at $2.65M. I would expect a deal to be reached prior to arbitration but if it isn’t, it is likely the arbitrator would award the mid-point between the two sides, which would be $2.075M. Based on our contract projections, this would be a team friendly contract as we projected Rodrigues to be just under $2.3M on a short-term contract. If I were running the Sabres, I would look to get Rodrigues locked up to a longer-term contract that would take him to age 29. This would be a four-year contract, worth $3.5M per season. If Sabres’ fans thought Rodrigues’s ask of $2.65M was crazy, they probably think I am insane. To me, the craziest part of this negotiation is Rodrigues’ agent has asked for an amount that is far too low. Let’s take a look at how we came to our valuation for Rodrigues. Please note that all statistics discussed are sourced from naturalstattrick.com and are 5v5 statistics unless otherwise noted. All salary data is courtesy of capfriendly.com.
The Structure of a Long-term Contract
When looking at the list of comparable players who signed their long-term contract at age 25 or 26, many of the strong comparisons signed contracts that took them to age 29. This means a four-year contract would make sense. As far as comparable players go, I would look at Lars Eller and Bryan Rust, who both signed four-year contracts with a $3.5M average annual value. If we were to look at these contracts in terms of cap hit percentage, the average of the two is 4.735%. That translates to a $3.93M average annual value (AAV). Next, we will discuss how Rodrigues compares to Eller and Rust and if the cap hit percentage should be used or if Rodrigues should slot slightly below these players in cap hit percentage, which would occur with a $3.5M average annual value. The recent four-year contract, carrying an AAV of $2.75M for Oscar Sundqvist does throw a little wrench in things, maybe to the Sabres’ benefit.
Both Rust and Eller have played a critical role as middle-six players on top teams. They are players who have shown an ability to play top line minutes if called upon, but their primary roles are to be quality two-way players who can add some offense. Sundqvist has played a role that is a step down from the other two, playing mostly bottom six minutes, with little time on a top line. I see Evan Rodrigues in a more similar light to Rust and Eller. Rodrigues has demonstrated versatility, playing everywhere from the first-line to fourth-line. He has also shown an ability to be effective at both wing and center.
When looking strictly at point production during 5v5 play, Rodrigues’s total point production in his platform season is between Eller and Rust, with very similar goal production. Sundqvist’s goal scoring propelled him to a clear point advantage over these players. We can all agree that Rodrigues has played on much inferior teams than Eller, Rust, and Sundqvist leading into their four-year contracts. I don’t think it would be completely unreasonable to chalk Rodrigues’s inferior assist totals in his platform season to playing with line mates who struggled to generate offense. If Rodrigues wasn’t the one scoring or directly setting up the goal, chances were the Sabres were not going to score, given Rodrigues’s incredibly low secondary assists. If given the opportunity to consistently play with line mates who can better generate offense, he should be able to pick up some additional secondary assists. The season before provides some evidence for this hypothesis. I also think Rodrigues is an example of a player where using beyond the box score statistics can help paint a clearer picture of the player’s individualized impact. Below you can find a comparison of Rodrigues to Eller, Rust, and Sundqvist’s scoring metrics in their platform seasons.
Next, I want to look at the on-ice metrics. In Rodrigues’ last two seasons with the Sabres, the team struggled to control the shot differential so it would be perfectly reasonable to see Rodrigues have poor metrics as well. However, he does not. When Rodrigues was on the ice, the Sabres broke just about even in the shot counter over the past two seasons. Control of the on-ice shot counter is typically related to controlling the goal differential while a player is on the ice. All four of the players we are assessing here have a similar trend in this aspect. Rodrigues and Rust see their goal differential slightly worse than their on-ice shot differential, while Sundqvist’s is slightly better. Eller is the only one who saw a dramatic shift from shot differential to goal differential. However, it is critical to consider the teams each player plays on when looking at these metrics. Below you will find the comparison for their on-ice metrics.
In order to control for the fact that Rodrigues’ Sabres are a far inferior team to the teams that Eller and Rust played on, we want to look to the player’s relative statistics, which are measuring how much better or worse the team performs with the player on the ice. Please note that when looking at CA/60 Rel or GA/60 Rel, lower numbers are better. This is indicating that the team is giving up X% less when the player is on the ice. When looking at Rodrigues’ relative metrics, I see a player who is valuable to his team, especially considering the role he has been asked to play. Rodrigues and Rust look incredibly strong here, while Eller and Sundqvist struggle.
With Rodrigues having strong underlying metrics, it is curious that his scoring numbers decreased this past season until you look at his usage. When Rodrigues’s scoring was up, he was starting just under half of his shifts (that started with a faceoff) in the offense zone. In his platform season, he received more ice time but only started 40% of his shifts in the offensive zone. A side effect of being asked to play more of a defensive role is playing with players who are “offensively challenged.” That will certainly hinder his ability to generate points.
Overall, I think Rodrigues compares very well to both Eller and Rust. I think Rodrigues could be more productive offensively if given an opportunity to do so. A focus on taking shots in higher danger areas could also help. The big question is whether that opportunity is there under a new coach. As things currently stand, I would probably slot Rodrigues slightly behind Eller and Rust, given he has only played close to one full season in Buffalo and the others had more of a proven track record at the time of signing. If we were to look at things in terms of cap hit percentage, an AAV of $3.5M probably makes sense as it comes in at a cap hit percent of 4.58%, which is lower than both Eller and Rust. The recent signing of Sundqvist does throw a wrench into things. He probably signed for slightly less than his market value on a four-year contract as he also compares well to both Eller and Rust so he should have been able to get closer to the $3.5M than he did. For Rodrigues, this probably knocks his value down into the range of $3M to $3.25M, which I think would be an absolute steal for the Sabres. I would still be comfortable with paying Rodrigues $3.5M on a four-year contract, though if the team can save some money because of Sundqvist’s signing, then they absolutely should.
Rodrigues’ Value on a Short-Term Contract
When constructing an arbitration case, each side presents comparable players that they believe justify their position. In a perfect world, player performance and salary would be perfectly correlated. Obviously, that does not happen. Inferior players get paid more and superior players get paid less. This allows both sides to latch onto one or more players that they believe they can use to make their case. There are plenty of options to use for either side. I will highlight one player Rodrigues’ side should use, one the Sabres should use, and the player who is probably most similar to Rodrigues.
Player Most in Rodrigues’ Favor – Vladislav Namestnikov
If I were on Rodrigues’ side, I would be using Vladislav Namestnikov’s contract from last season (two years, 5.03% of the salary cap) to drive up his value. I would have asked for $4M in arbitration and been able to present a strong argument to get very close to that value. Below, you can see the comparison of the players in terms of their Scoring, On-Ice and Relative Metrics from their platform seasons.
Namestnikov appears to be the slightly superior player as he scored goals at a better rate and had superior on-ice metrics. However, a strong argument could be made that Rodrigues did more to improve his team’s performance. He had a far superior primary assist rate, meaning he was directly setting up goals and was incredibly strong in improving the team’s shot and goal differential. It is likely that Rodrigues will ultimately end up getting paid $2M less than Namestnikov, which would be incredible value for the Sabres.
Player Most in the Sabres’ Favor – Marcus Kruger
Let me preface this by saying I think Rodrigues’ numbers are superior to Kruger. The problem is the difference is somewhat minimal. To me, the difference between Rodrigues and Kruger is very similar to the difference between Namestikov and Rodrigues. If you were to present the argument that Rodrigues should be paid a little less than Namestikov, then I would counter with Rodrigues shouldn’t be paid much more than Kruger’s (one year, 2.05%). This could be the argument the Sabres present as they came in very close to Kruger’s contract under today’s cap hit ($1.67M). They also will likely attach themselves to Vinnie Hinostroza’s two-year, $1.5M AAV contract. However, Rodrigues is a vastly different player and is asked to play a significantly different role so I am going to highlight Kruger who plays a more similar role to Rodrigues.
When looking at Rodrigues and Kruger in their platform seasons, I would argue that the two players performed very similarly but Kruger benefited from playing on a stronger team as shown by his relative metrics. While Rodrigues improved his team when on the ice, Kruger weakened his. He also lagged behind in primary assists, which in turn lessened his total point production. Let’s take a look at the numbers.
There should be little doubt that Rodrigues should be paid more than Kruger, though how much more is the looming question. It probably isn’t significant enough to approach Rodrigues’ ask of $2.65M, but it is significant enough to get Rodrigues to around the $2M he will likely receive.
Most Comparable Player to Evan Rodrigues – Joonas Donskoi
The top comparable player for Evan Rodrigues is Joonas Donskoi at age 25. He signed a two-year, 2.53% contract. Under today’s salary cap, that would be $2.06M, which is nearly identical to the arbitration midpoint. I think Rodrigues’ stats could warrant a slightly higher salary than Donskoi but if I were to pick the most comparable player for Rodrigues, Donskoi is where I settle. Their on-ice and relative metrics are very similar. Rodrigues scored at slightly better rates. The one area where Rodrigues has a clear advantage is his team improved their goal differential while he was on the ice while Donskoi’s team got worse in their platform seasons. Let’s look at their numbers.
In their platform season, Rodrigues looks superior. However, when looking at each player’s platform minus one season, Donskoi had far superior advanced metrics in a full season, while Rodrigues had better point production in a condensed season. Though I have not previously highlighted more than one season in any section to keep this article more streamlined, I think it is critical here so you can see why Donskoi is the most comparable player.
One question that has to be answered is which of the past two seasons is more representative of Rodrigues’ scoring abilities. Based on comparable players, I would guess Rodrigues should score around a rate of 1.5 points per 60 minutes. That has been his scoring rate for his career. Over the course of a season, that should translate to roughly 25-30 points during 5v5 play. With some special team production, I think Rodrigues could be around a 40-point player.
Rodrigues also has shown to be a fairly strong penalty killer, while Donskoi has not seen penalty kill minutes at all. As such, we would argue Rodrigues should be paid slightly more than Donskoi, but probably not a significant amount.
I should also discuss how I see the two players comparing beyond the statistics. I see both players as high-end third line players, who can slot higher in the lineup if needed. Although neither player is going to carry or drive a team, they are high quality depth players. In today’s NHL, players with Rodrigues’ and Donskoi’s skill sets and diversity are critical pieces in building championship level teams. If given the choice of having Rodrigues or Donskoi on my team at the same salary, I would take Rodrigues. However, if Rodrigues were making more than $500,000 more than Donskoi, I would take Donskoi.
Other Considerations
Penalty Killing
I generally think most players can kill penalties if given the chance as most will produce average results. This is generally why I would not put too much value into penalty kill minutes. To explore this idea, I created a histogram, plotting every player’s Corsi against per 60 while the player is on the ice, showing forwards with at least 25 minutes. This was 227 players in total. The data is normally distributed meaning the principles of a bell curve will apply. This means that 68.2% of all players fall within one standard deviation of the average, so in my opinion they are basically interchangeable. When looking at players who provide a significant improvement in penalty killing, I would focus on players who fall more than one standard deviation below the average. This would be approximately 16% of the players. Rodrigues falls just above one standard deviation below the mean, as he was on the ice for 81.84 Corsi against per 60. Put into simple terms, I would consider Evan Rodrigues to be better than 81.5% of players who killed penalties in 2018-2019, which is 42 players in total. The Sabres used four main players on the penalty kill. Those four were Zemgus Girgensons, Johan Larsson, Vladimir Sobotka, and Rodrigues. Rodrigues was by far the most effective of them. The only Sabre to play enough minutes to qualify in my sample and perform better than Rodrigues was Jack Eichel. Below, I have included and illustrated the histogram to visualize what I just narrated.
Teammate Considerations
Because of Rodrigues’ versatility, detractors might point to some of his strong numbers being the result of playing with top end players. I will attempt to determine how valid that argument is. Here, I will look at Rodrigues’ relative shot metrics with and without a player. During the 2018-2019 season, Rodrigues played at least 50 minutes with 10 forwards. Those 10 forwards were Conor Sheary, Vladimir Sobotka, Kyle Okposo, Sam Reinhart, Jason Pominville, Jeff Skinner, Zemgus Girgensons, Casey Mittelstadt, Johan Larsson, and Tage Thompson. Only three of them (Jason Pominville, Zemgus Girgensons, and Johan Larsson) performed worse with Rodrigues than when they didn’t play with him. Additionally, the Sabres were a better team when Rodrigues was paired with everyone except Larsson, Girgensons, and Sobotka. Of course, Rodrigues played the second most minutes with Sobotka. Though we will never know, I would be interested in seeing how much better Rodrigues would have been had he not been saddled with the Sobotka anchor.
Conclusion
Last season, Evan Rodrigues was the Sabres’s fourth most valuable forward behind Eichel, Reinhart, and Skinner (in no particular order). He was one of the strongest forwards in improving the team’s performance while he was on the ice. He also was the team’s best regular penalty killer at forward. Sabre fans may look at Rodrigues’ point production and wonder why in the world would a team commit more than $2M to a player who only had nine goals and 29 assists across all situations and only seven goals and 14 assists during 5v5 play, while only just becoming a lineup regular at the end of the season. This is why we need to consider more than just his goals and assists. When we do, we see a player who compares well to versatile role players on Stanley Cup winning teams.
If the Sabres hope to take major steps forward, it is critical that they have bargain players who can provide lineup versatility. Right now, Rodrigues is that player. The team would be wise to avoid arbitration and lock Rodrigues up through his prime. Although you may see this as a risky move, I think it is the safest move the Sabres could make. We will soon see how the team feels about Rodrigues. For a team that has made some smart, numbers driven moves this offseason, securing Rodrigues would keep things moving in that direction. If they don’t, it will be another case of a step or two forward and a step back in their embrace of analytics.
Feel free to tweet us your thoughts, @afpanalytics.
KYLE STICH is the Director of AFP Analytics. In addition, Mr. Stich is a tax specialist and Director of Operations at AFP Consulting LLC, whose clientele include professional athletes performing services on three separate continents. Mr. Stich earned his Master of Science in Sport Management with a Concentration in
James Finch is an analyst at AFP Analytics. James graduated from St. John Fisher College in 2019 with a bachelor’s degree in Sport Management with a minor in Economics. His background with sports and economics have brought about an interest in gaining experience and finding his niche within the sport analytics field.
17 Jul
2019 NHL Free Agents: Five Remaining UFAs Who Could Provide Value
After the initial rush of the 2019 free agency period, there are still many players looking for an opportunity with an NHL club. There are some well-known names still currently looking for a new contract, like Jake Gardiner and Joe Thornton. However, we believe that there is value to be found with the players who aren’t as well-known and who may be looking for an opportunity at a larger role. We have identified five players that teams should be targeting that will, worst case scenario, improve the organizations depth. Best case scenario, these players may surprise and play their way into a more significant role on the team.
Safest Bet: Dmitrij Jaskin
After being a second-round pick in 2011, many within the hockey industry thought that Dmitrij Jaskin would become a solid middle
Most Likely to Take the Next Step to the NHL: Rourke Chartier
Rourke Chartier is a 23 year old forward who has hit the UFA (unrestricted free agent) market. Other players at that age have been in this situation before, but the numbers that Chartier has produced make him stand out. Chartier was a very productive WHL player in his junior days. Once he moved to the AHL in the San Jose Sharks organization, his game seemed to translate well. His first AHL season, he played 67 games and produced 35 points. AHL season number two saw him post 21 points in 28 games. This past season in the AHL, he had 18 points in 26 games. These numbers don’t jump off the page, but they are very respectable. Chartier also saw 13 games in the NHL this past season. In these games, he had just one goal. While that is not great, his underlying numbers gave a glimpse of hope. He averaged 9:24 TOI (time on ice), leading us to the conclusion that he was playing in a fourth line role. He produced a CF% of 53.15%. While that is good, his CF% relative was -4.86%, painting a more negative picture. Looking at these numbers, we can draw the conclusion that he may have benefited from playing on a great San Jose team but would not have been one of the better options in comparison to his teammates. However, we believe that based off of his AHL numbers and the fact that he is still young, he has the ability to make the jump to the NHL. A team looking to take a chance on an AHL player who may be able to become an adequate option on an NHL fourth line should be looking at Chartier. He should end up signing for the minimum, so this would be a low-risk option. Worst case scenario, he plays well in the AHL. Ideally, he takes the next step and becomes an option for the NHL roster.
Top Six Fill in: Pontus Aberg
Pontus Aberg is a former top second-round pick of the Nashville Predators. While he looked good for their AHL affiliate, his numbers did not translate well to the NHL. We would like to highlight that in 37 games with Nashville during the 2017-2018 season, he played over 160 minutes with Calle Jarnkrok. Jarnkrok was the Nashville forward that Aberg played the most minutes with. Aberg finished the 2017-2018 season with the Edmonton Oilers after being traded midseason. In 16 games with the Oilers, Aberg had two goals and six assists for a total of eight points. While his CF% was 48.49, his relative CF% was 2.25%, showing that the team was better when he was on the ice. In these 16 games with Edmonton, Aberg played 75 or more minutes with Drake Caggiula, Leon Draisaitl, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.
In the 2018-2019 season, Aberg started off with the Anaheim Ducks after being claimed on waivers. In 37 games with the Ducks, Aberg had 19 points. He produced a CF% of 53.60%, and a relative percentage of 7.73%. Aberg looked great playing with his most common Anaheim forward teammates of Ryan Getzlaf (274:46 TOI), Rickard Rakell (130:01 TOI), and Adam Henrique (129:52 TOI).
Midseason, Anaheim traded Aberg to the Minnesota Wild. With the Wild, Aberg struggled in 22 games. He only produced six points. Aberg’s underlying numbers were not good either. He had a CF% of 46.90%, with a relative CF% of -4.70%. Aberg was not helping the Wild when he was on the ice. He was very replaceable on their team. With Minnesota, the most common forward teammates that Aberg played with were Victor Rask (93:03 TOI) and Zach Parise (82:13 TOI).
The main thing that stands out here is that Aberg provided quality numbers when playing with top players. He has been at his best level of play with Ryan Getzlaf and Leon
Veteran Depth Player: Oscar Lindberg
As a former second-round pick, Lindberg came into the league as someone who projected to be a decent middle-six option within the forward group. That never really happened, as the most points he has ever produced in a single year was 28 in the 2015-2016 season. However, he has established himself as a decent bottom-six option. This past year, his season was split between the Vegas Golden Knights and the Ottawa Senators. With Vegas, Lindberg had four goals and eight assists in 35 games. His CF% was 56.44%, with a relative CF% of 4.21%. With Ottawa, Lindberg produced five goals and three assists in 20 games. His CF% was 44.70, with a relative CF% of 0.18%. His numbers looked really good with Vegas. Once he got to Ottawa, his underlying numbers fell, but he produced at a better rate. However, Lindberg was on a really good Vegas team, playing with other quality bottom-six forwards like Cody Eakin and Ryan Carpenter. In Ottawa, he was still making the team better in relation to other players on his team while playing with fringe NHL players, Magnus Paajarvi and Brian Gibbons. After looking at these statistics, we believe that Lindberg would be a quality veteran player to put into your bottom six. If he has other similar players around him, he will look good. If he plays with players who may fit better in the AHL, he may still have the offensive ability to stay serviceable in his NHL role. Ultimately, Lindberg is a solid veteran option to have on your NHL roster.
Boom/Bust Potential: Stefan Noesen
Stefan Noesen was a first round pick in 2011 for the Ottawa Senators. He first broke into the NHL with the Anaheim Ducks, but over three seasons of very limited time, he found himself in the New Jersey Devils organization via waivers. Noesen has had some problems dealing with injuries in his career, but he was able to put together a 72 game season in 2017-2018 with the Devils. During this season, he had 13 goals and 14 assists for a total of 27 points. His CF% was 51.62% with a relative CF% of 3.23%. This was Noesen’s first season where he came close to playing all of the games. The team would have liked to see him take another step forward in 2018-2019, but the opposite happened. Finding himself on the injured list three times throughout the season, Noesen played only 41 games. In those 41 games, he had only three goals and five assists for a total of eight points. His underlying numbers didn’t help either, as his CF% was 45.65% and his relative CF% was -2.74%. Noesen went from looking like a guy who could become a solid middle six option to a guy who may struggle to find an NHL opportunity. The Devils did not give him a qualifying offer this offseason, making him
Photo by Ethan Miller / Getty Images
James Finch is an analyst at AFP Analytics. James graduated from St. John Fisher College in 2019 with a bachelor’s degree in Sport Management with a minor in Economics. His background with sports and economics have brought about an interest in gaining experience and finding his niche within the sport analytics field.
02 Jul
Recapping July 1st & Looking Ahead
With the July 1st dust settling, we wanted to take a look at some of the moves that most caught our attention, both positively and negatively. Kyle will look at what we consider to be the three best moves from July 1st, while James will tackle the most puzzling. Both Kyle and James will then discuss three moves that they each think should happen.
Three Best Moves
We will start with Kyle looking at the three best moves from July 1st, which is usually the day when instantly regrettable moves take place.
Leafs Get Barrie, Spezza; Shed Zaitsev
NHL GMs are too nice to each other. The Toronto Maple Leafs came into the summer dead to right, primed for a team to pounce and sign Mitch Marner, Andreas Johnsson, and/or Kasperi Kapanen to an offer sheet. Their blueline needed improvement and they needed to fill out the bottom portion of their roster. They had a few anchor contracts that they really needed to move. Specifically, Patrick Marleau and Nikita Zaitsev. Prior to July 1st, they were able to sign Johnsson and Kapanen to very reasonable contracts, so an offer sheet for neither of those players was no longer a concern. They also had already moved Patrick Marleau at the cost of a future first round draft pick. Coming into July 1st, it looked like the Leafs would be in a position to match any potential Marner offer sheet but not really do much else to improve their roster, especially their defense.
Before the free agent period opened, the Leafs had already created some cap flexibility by moving Nikita Zaitsev and Connor Brown for Cody Ceci. The team still needs to pay Ceci but they will likely end up paying him similar to Zaitsev but for only one season. Brown is a nice player but trading him was a minimal price to pay to get Zaitsev’s contract off the books as well as his $2.1M cap hit. I don’t hate the trade for Ottawa, but I certainly don’t love it considering they held all the power in negotiations. This trade would set the table to have arguably the best day of any team. When the free agent window opened, the team signed veteran Jason Spezza to a one-year, minimum contract. Spezza is nowhere near the player he used to be, but he definitely can be a quality bottom line option who can contribute on special teams as well. However, the real winning of a move came early in the evening.
The Leafs hit an absolute homerun with the trade they made with Colorado to acquire Tyson Barrie and Alex Kerfoot. Let me be clear, Kazem Kadri is a very good player. He will be a tremendous fit as a second-line center in Colorado. However, the Leafs were able to trade him and in return they got a player to fill the void left by Kadri and fill the biggest need on their team, a top-pair, right-shot defenseman. Is Tyson Barrie a perfect player? No. However, he should be a tremendous fit for this Leaf team. He drives offense at an elite level from the backend and is an elite puck mover. He should be a perfect fit in Toronto and I expect he will excel for the Leafs. They also added Alex Kerfoot who should be a very good three-line center for the team. The Leafs have quickly gone from a team that looked like they would have to go into next season with a similar team that exited in the first round, to legitimate contender in the East. Kyle Dubas has been absolutely brilliant this offseason and although he still has some work in front of him, he has been able to dramatically improve the roster at the expense of Connor Brown and Nazem Kadri. So far, so good.
Nashville gets Duchene
When Nashville originally trade P.K. Subban, I was skeptical that they were going to wisely use the cap space. It seemed certain that Matt Duchene was engaged to Nashville and the only question was when the wedding date was. However, with the price of Jeff Skinner’s contract in Buffalo and Kevin Hayes’s insane contract with Philadelphia, it seemed like a certainty that Duchene was going to completely blow his market value ($8M per season) out of the water. If I was offered Kevin Hayes and $700,000 in salary cap space for Matt Duchene, I would take Duchene in a second. Nashville held firm on their offer and secured Duchene for a fair $8M per season. I didn’t love the idea of trading Subban and then using all (or even additional) salary cap space to add Duchene on a long-term deal. Nashville ended up getting the additional offensive punch they needed and still have a little more cap flexibility. They also didn’t do anything that will definitely be regrettable.
Timo Meier Contract
The San Jose Sharks did well to get Meier locked in before any offer sheet could happen and they didn’t completely break the bank to do so. However, the real reason we have included Meier here is we think the contract structure negotiated by his agent, Claude Lemieux is absolutely brilliant. Meier needs to accrue five more pro seasons before he is able to become an unrestricted free agent. This contract takes him a year shy of that. However, the way his contract is structured ensures Meier will either not receive a qualifying offer after this contract expires or be guaranteed $10M then. This is because Meier’s salary in the last season of his four-year contract is $10M. If the Sharks were to qualify him, they would have to do so at that value. If Meier were to elect to go to salary arbitration, the award could not be lower than the $10M he was guaranteed on his qualifying offer. Basically, this ensures the Sharks will have to negotiate a new contract with Meier and gives Meier all the leverage in those discussions. Absolutely brilliant by Lemieux. It will be interesting to see if more agents and teams follow this structure.
Three Most Puzzling
Now James will move on to discussing three moves that were puzzling and didn’t quite make sense for the teams involved.
Sergei Bobrovsky and Anton Stralman Signings
On June 21st, 2019, the Florida Panthers used their first-round pick (13th overall) on a goalie. The goalie, Spencer Knight, is considered by many to be a possible franchise changing netminder. There was and still is some controversy about using a middle first round pick on a goalie, but it was the decision they made. What is most puzzling about this situation is they then signed UFA goalie Sergei Bobrovsky to a seven-year, $70,000,000 contract ($10,000,000 AAV). The first problem with this contract is Bobrovsky should not be making $10,000,000 a year. Only Carey Price makes more per season as a goalie and that contract is met with its fair share of criticism. The second problem with Bobrovsky’s contract is the term. If you just used a first-round pick on a goaltender that you would expect to be in the NHL in the next few seasons, why would you commit seven years to a goalie and pay that goalie an outlandish amount of money? There is a strong possibility that when Knight reaches the NHL, the Panthers will still need to pay Bobrovsky for four more seasons. This combination of moves makes no sense.
On top of singing a veteran goalie to an enormous contract, the Panthers did the same with a veteran defenseman. Anton Stralman, a 32-year-old, has been declining the past couple of seasons. The Panthers gave him $5,500,000 per year for the next three seasons. Our contract predictions had Stralman at just under $3.4 million on a three-year deal. This is quite the overpay, not to mention a raise on Stralman’s previous deal. It is known the Panthers were looking to make some noise this offseason, but this Stralman and Bobrovsky combination is worrisome for their future.
Semyon Varlamov over Robin Lehner
Robin Lehner was a Vezina trophy finalist this past season. He played very well for the Islanders in the playoffs and was one of the main reasons they made it past the first round. According to reports, the Islanders didn’t offer him much more than a two-year deal that would pay $5,000,000 each year. For a Vezina finalist, that is low.
What is really odd about this is that the Islanders moved on from Lehner to sign Semyon Varlamov to a four-year deal that will pay him $5,000,000 each year. Varlamov has had an up and down career and finished this past season as a backup in Colorado. Over the past three years, Lehner has better average numbers and Lehner is younger. It is very puzzling that you would pay Varlamov the same amount per season and add two seasons to the offer and sign him to that deal over Robin Lehner. Lehner wasn’t even offered that deal. He has since decided on a one year deal for $5,000,000 to try to prove his value once again and cash in next offseason. Why the Islanders were willing to give a bigger deal to a worse goalie is beyond us at AFP Analytics. Nothing about it makes sense.
Sebastian Aho Offer Sheet from Canadiens
After looking over this deal, it really is quite puzzling. You have to wonder what exactly the Canadiens were going for with this. Yes, the deal is lined heavily with signing bonuses at the beginning of the contract. However, Aho may just be a franchise player. You can’t let him go for $8,454,000 per year on a 5-year deal for compensation of a first, second, and third round pick. That was what Tomas Tatar was traded for when dealt from the Red Wings to the Golden Knights. Aho is leaps and bounds superior to Tatar. Again, it doesn’t make sense to not match this offer. At this point, we know that the Hurricanes are matching the deal and will keep Aho. Hurricanes owner Tom Dundon has expressed his feelings that this was a no-brainer and very easy to match. That leaves us wondering why the Canadiens would even take the time to create this deal. While yes, it could hurt a team financially, the Hurricanes were well prepared and reportedly expected the offer sheet to be much greater than it was. If anything, they are happy with the money aspect of the deal. The one downfall that the Canadiens forced on the Hurricanes is that the deal is only for 5 seasons and will make Aho a UFA at age 26. That is not ideal for the Hurricanes, but it ultimately doesn’t factor into whether or not they would match. The hockey world was excited for offer sheets this offseason, but this one was basically pointless.
Three Moves That Moves Should Happen
In this section, James and I will each discuss three moves that we think should happen. Does this mean they will happen or we even think they will happen? Not in the least. However, if we were NHL GMs these are some moves we would be looking to make for our team.
Kyle’s Picks
Montreal Offer Sheets Brayden Point or Mitch Marner
Montreal broke the seal, though poorly, on NHL offer sheets, so why not learn from your mistake and do it again? It would’ve made little sense for Point to sign an offer sheet similar to what the Canadiens gave to Aho as it would’ve bought UFA years. However, for an additional first-round pick and $2M more in cap space, the Canadiens could make things really tough on their division rivals. Montreal appears to be hunting for an elite offensive playmaker and Point would be a great fit. Marner would as well but I am not sure he would be willing to sign an offer sheet that wouldn’t make him the highest paid winger in the game. If Montreal’s first attempt was only at the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round level, it seems unlikely that they would be unwilling to go to the first 1st round pick level. However, that would certainly add additional fuel to the Montreal-Toronto rivalry. Do I think Montreal will go this route? Probably not. Should they? Absolutely.
Winnipeg Trades a Forward for Defenseman
For a team whose Cup window is now, Winnipeg’s defense is nowhere near good enough to get to that level. They are currently going to have a second-pair made up of two of Dmitry Kulikov, Nathan Beaulieu, Sami Niku, Tucker Poolman, Anthony Bitetto, and Neal Pionk. I will guarantee that will not be good enough. The team has some quality young forwards, who will quickly eat into their available salary cap space and make it tough for them to upgrade their defense at all. Basically, Winnipeg needs to make a move similar to what Toronto just made with Colorado. There are two very likely partners, teams with a need at forward and a surplus of defensemen. These teams are the Carolina Hurricanes and Buffalo Sabres. I have been all for a trade that centers around a swap of Nikolaj Ehlers for Brett Pesce. With Carolina having to match the offer sheet for Aho, I am not sure they would be overly anxious to make a trade where they take on more salary than they ship out.
The Sabres are another fit but any defenseman they could offer is nowhere near as good as Brett Pesce (although Rasmus Ristolainen may be perceived this way by some teams). I am going to assume Ristolainen would be the defenseman Winnipeg would covet. Buffalo does have three other things Winnipeg may be interested in. First, they have salary cap space. They could retain some of Ristolainen’s salary or possibly take back Mathieu Perreault to add value on their end. Second, they have cost-controlled depth forwards. Winnipeg has plenty of top forward talent but are lacking some depth with the loss of Brandon Tanev. The Sabres find themselves in a spot where they have a surplus of depth forwards after acquiring Jimmy Vesey. A player like Conor Sheary could be a great fit for Winnipeg and he certainly doesn’t break the bank. C.J. Smith, Evan Rodrigues, and to a lesser extent, Johan Larsson, Scott Wilson, and Zemgus Girgensons also would provide a decent depth option. Third, the Sabres could include a second defenseman, who would provide depth but maybe not an upgrade.
Edmonton Signs Patrick Maroon
Patrick Maroon was a surprisingly good fit with Connor McDavid before they traded him to New Jersey at the trade deadline two years ago and then he signed with St. Louis during that offseason. Edmonton needs help on the wing and they could probably get a little of a value buy, who is also a known commodity. Maroon isn’t the fastest player but has proven in the past that he can play with other elite offensive players and still be effective. If he could slide on McDavid’s wing, that would help push some wingers down the lineup. This sounds crazy but might be the savvy move that Edmonton needs.
James’ Picks
Jake Gardiner to the St. Louis Blues
This was one of my prediction before free agency and with Gardiner still a free agent, I would like to reiterate the fit here. The Blues have three defensemen that are true top four defensemen. Those three are Alex Pietrangelo, Colton Parayko, and Vince Dunn. Jay Bouwmeester is no longer a top 4 quality defenseman, and putting Carl Gunnarsson or Joel Edmundson in that role would not be the greatest idea. Pietrangelo and Dunn play very well together, leaving a theoretical spot open on the left side next to Colton Parayko. Gardiner would be an ideal fit.
Our prediction for Gardiner is a six year contract for just over $6.3 million a season. Just to play it safe, let’s pretend he gets a $7 million per year contract from the Blues. That would leave them with just under $7 million in cap space this offseason to resign RFAs Ivan Barbashev, Robby Fabbri, Zach Sanford, Oskar Sundqvist, Joel Edmundson, and Jordan Binnington. Binnington will most likely get a short term deal near $3 million per season. That would leave roughly $4 million for the rest of the RFAs. While none of them would break the bank, it would be close to the cap and possibly over if they were all resigned. Two players like Alex Steen and Jake Allen could be expendable. I would try to target a trade involving Allen to a team with a lot of cap space that could use a goalie, like Ottawa or Columbus. Doing so will allow the team to resign all RFAs. Long term, they will need new deals for Brayden Schenn and Alex Pietrangelo. With the salary cap rising each season and some other deals expiring soon like Jay Bouwmeester and Tyler Bozak, there should be no worry in singing the core pieces long term. Gardiner would be able to fit salary cap wise and he’d be a great fit next to Colton Parayko for a very strong top four defensive group. This move should definitely happen and it would certainly help their chances in returning to the Stanley Cup Final.
Ryan Dzingel to the Montreal Canadiens
The Canadiens have struck out on prying Aho from the Hurricanes. They traded Andrew Shaw, so they could be looking for someone who can play center but would also fit on the wing. My original spot for UFA forward Ryan Dzingel was the Minnesota Wild, but with Zuccarello signed, Dzingel would not be a fit there. Dzingel had a good season in Ottawa and performed fairly well for the Blue Jackets after being traded. As a good second line player, he’d fit in well with Montreal to extend their offensive depth. Our prediction for Dzingel was a 5-year contract that would pay just under $5.3 million per season. If the Canadiens could make that deal happen or get him on an AAV that is slightly lower, this move would be a good fit. This is a move that the Canadiens should be looking into.
Colorado Avalanche should offer sheet Brayden Point
The Avalanche have roughly $27 million in cap space. Let’s say Rantanen gets $9 million per seasons. We would then be looking at $18 million. Burakovsky, Compher, and Zadorov should not be more than $8 million all together. That would leave $10 million in cap space for the season. Colorado just had two first round picks, so I think it would be more comfortable for them than most teams to sign an offer sheet that would cost them four first round picks. The Tampa Bay Lightning have just under $8 million in cap space. I believe Colorado should sign Point to an offer sheet of five years for an AAV of $10,568,590. That is the lower limit for giving up the compensation of four first round picks. That would allow them to put a great bit of pressure on the Lightning. It would also make the Lightning think about not matching. Colorado would be able to afford this by moving out a player like Matt Nieto or Matt Calvert. It allows them to have a forward group similar to what the Maple Leafs had with MacKinnon, Point, and Kadri down the middle. This group would dominate. Jost and Girard are up for new deals next season, but some salary will be coming off the books to make resigning them very doable. If the Lightning match the offer sheet for Point, Colorado may then be able to take advantage of their situation through trade and acquire a player like Tyler Johnson or Ondrej Palat. Regardless, the outcome here is great for Colorado. You either get an elite center, or you get a consolation prize of a good second line forward. This should definitely be considered by Colorado.
Feature image courtesy of NBCSports.
KYLE STICH is the Director of AFP Analytics. In addition, Mr. Stich is a tax specialist and Director of Operations at AFP Consulting LLC, whose clientele include professional athletes performing services on three separate continents. Mr. Stich earned his Master of Science in Sport Management with a Concentration in
James Finch is an analyst at AFP Analytics. James graduated from St. John Fisher College in 2019 with a bachelor’s degree in Sport Management with a minor in Economics. His background with sports and economics have brought about an interest in gaining experience and finding his niche within the
29 Jun
NHL 2019 Free Agent Predictions
Forwards
Artemi Panarin
James Prediction:Florida Panthers
Even before Panarin was traded to the Columbus Blue Jackets, there were rumors that only a few destinations were on his long-term radar. New York, Los Angeles, and Florida. Florida will make the splash and do whatever it takes to sign Panarin. There is definitely a need in the top six. Panarin could play the wing with either Aleksander Barkov or Vincent Trocheck and quickly be the best winger either player has played with. The Florida Panthers have the cap space needed for Panarin, with just under $22 million currently. With nobody up for a new deal that will break the bank, and some possible trades that could take place to move players out, they are setting themselves up perfectly to be Artemi Panarin’s next destination.
Kyle Prediction: Florida Panthers
This seems to be the foregone conclusion for a while. For much of the season, I thought he would end up with the Rangers. However, the Panthers’ hiring of his former coach, Joel Quenneville, I’m now willing to accept that the Panthers are his likely destination. I personally think the Panthers might be smart to spend their money elsewhere but the team seems poised to make a big splash and Panarin would be just that. A top six including Huberdeau, Barkov, Hoffman, Trocheck, Dadonov and Panarin would be unstoppable. However, the forward depth at the bottom of the lineup would be questionable. I also wouldn’t love their blue line and think a savvier move would be throwing money at Jake Gardiner and Brett Connolly but that wouldn’t be a splash.
Mitch Marner
James Prediction: Toronto Maple Leafs
There are a lot of rumors about the offer sheet this offseason. I predict that Marner will sign one, but it will be matched by the Maple Leafs, keeping Marner in Toronto. The offer sheet will be a four-year deal for an AAV of $10,500,000, just inside the compensation requirements of two first round picks, one second round, and one third round pick. This offer sheet will be signed with the New York Islanders. The Islanders have Toronto connections with Lou Lamoriello at the helm and may be looking for some retribution for losing John Tavares to Toronto. For the Islanders, if you get Marner, you are happy that Mathew Barzal has another young forward next to him. If not, you hurt the Maple Leafs’ cap situation and cause other problems for them. I don’t believe that the Leafs will let Marner go for that specific offer sheet compensation, so they make the decision to match and deal with the consequences of doing so.
Kyle Prediction: Toronto Maple Leafs
Even though I have Marner staying with the Leafs, I do think things get interesting. I’m not predicting he signs an offer sheet, but I think the rumors will swirl until he gets a contract signed and I definitely won’t rule it out. The Leafs can’t lose him under any circumstances so even if he signs one, I expect them to match. Marner is an elite talent and the Leafs are in a win-now window so four first round draft picks would be near useless to them. If a team is really trying to put the squeeze on them, they should offer Marner a four-year contract to take him directly to free agency with a cap hit approaching $11M; that same team should then turn their attention to Kapenen or Johnsson because a subsequent offer sheet for one of those players would likely allow them to land them. Carolina or the Islanders would be teams I would have my eyes on here.
Brayden Point
James Prediction: Buffalo Sabres
Point should not be in a Tampa Bay Lightning uniform for the 19-20 season. That may seem crazy, but the cap situation that Tampa has set up for themselves is coming back to haunt them. They have roughly $10.6M in cap space this summer, which may be just enough to sign Point and another not so great player. They need to still sign Erne, Paquette, and replace Stralman and Girardi. Stamkos ($8.5M), Palat ($5.3M), Gourde ($5.16M), Johnson ($5M), and Killorn ($4.45) all have full no trade clauses. In theory, they could all deny a trade, so we need to assume that moving one or more may be difficult. The only other player on the roster making significant money without full trade protection is Nikita Kucherov. Kucherov is going nowhere. For now, let’s look at the next offseason. The only cap space they’ll really have will be a cap increase, so let’s say they sign Point to a $9 million deal and spend the remaining $1.6 million on a role player. We’ll project $84 million in cap space for the 20-21 season, an increase from $81.5 million. That would give Tampa $2.5 million in cap space next offseason. They’ll then need to sign Cirelli, Joseph, Sergachev, Cernak, and Vasilevskiy. Sergachev and Vasilevskiy will both command a cap hit higher than $5 million. Now all of a sudden that $9 million that was given to Point could be really useful. With the offensive group as strong as it is, I think it makes the most sense for Point to go instead of a defenseman.
The Buffalo Sabres are a team that could provide the Lightning with both immediate and future value. Rumors have surfaced that the Lightning have interest in Rasmus Ristolainen. The defenseman is under contract for three more seasons at $5.4 million. This is a contract that the Lightning could fit now. Next offseason, they can then decide if they are wanting to consider him a main piece and figure out how to keep him or they can easily deal him after one season to help clear more cap space. Ristolainen does not have a trade clause, so he is a more moveable asset than other players previously mentioned. Along with Ristolainen, the Sabres would need to send along one of their top young centers. This would be either Casey Mittelstadt or Dylan Cozens. With Cozens just being drafted, it would make sense that Mittelstadt would be the player involved in the deal. Add in a first round pick or and probably another decent pick, and you might be able to come to a deal. Another factor in the Sabres favor is they could threaten an offer sheet. While the Lightning could receive four first round picks for Point, those are all future unknown assets that don’t help the team now. Ristolainen and Mittelstadt would both help now and in the future, along with the picks involved in the trade. If an offer sheet is threatened, the trade route may be more beneficial for the Lightning. This trade would leave them with $5.2 million in cap space, enough to resign Erne, Paquette, and replace Stralman and Girardi. With this trade, the Lightning would most likely need to still move two of the forwards with a no-trade clause (Palat, Gourde, Johnson, Killorn) or one of them and Ristolainen in order to make room for new Sergachev and Vasilevskiy deals, among others next season. Getting two players to waive their clauses could be tough, and this is assuming that Point and his big contract are not on the roster. The Sabres would get that second top center that they are looking for, and they have the cap space to sign Point long term. While yes, this is unlikely, it is what I hope the Lightning at least consider. Taking the “we’ll deal with it later” approach and singing Point long term is going to put them in an even worse cap situation next offseason. Worst case scenario, that situation could see them lose Sergachev and Vasilevskiy. I suggest Tampa takes my advice and does not let that happen.
Kyle Prediction: Tampa Bay Lightning
I don’t think this is a sure thing because the team is going to have to face the reality of moving some talent in the next year or two because they just have too many incredible players. I am working off the assumption that Point will sign a long-term, big money deal. If that’s true, fitting Point in their salary cap this season isn’t overly complicated. Next offseason is where things will likely get interesting and not keeping Point this year should make next offseason much more manageable. Eventually, Tampa is going to have to make a tough decision. Do they make it this season or the next? I don’t see how the best team in the modern NHL can not take another run at it. If they fail to win the Cup next season, they are going to have to take a long look at their roster anyways. I don’t love the idea of kicking the can down the road, but this team is close and I would give them one more shot at it.
Matt Duchene
James Prediction: Nashville Predators
Duchene has experienced losing for a majority of his career and finally made it onto a winning team in the Columbus Blue Jackets. They made their run in the playoffs and may end up losing multiple key pieces on their team. With that, Duchene looks elsewhere and signs with the Nashville Predators. Both sides are rumored to have an admiration for one another. The Predators traded PK Subban for a subpar return to move salary and it is highly expected that they make a run at Duchene to improve their forward group. With just over $13 million in cap space, the Predators will get this deal done.
Kyle Prediction: New York Rangers
The Rangers have been patient in their retool the last couple seasons and have added some quality young pieces in the last couple and will add another with the second overall pick this year. Everyone is expecting the Devils to take Jack Hughes and leave Kaapo Kakko to the Rangers. As long as this happens, the Rangers could definitely use a center to pair with Mika Zibanejad to have a really nice 1-2 punch down the middle. The Rangers have the cap space this year to make a splash or two and have plenty of contracts, particularly at forward, coming off the books next year, where they can certainly justify shelling out a big contract for a high-end player.
Duchene has been connected to Nashville and it seems like he is open to remaining in Columbus as well. I really think if Nashville desperately wanted him, he would’ve been there already. They would need to move PK Subban or Kyle Turris to fit Duchene in. If either of those players move between now and the start of free agency, I would watch out for Nashville as well. Columbus is going to need to do all they can to keep Duchene but I think will be hard pressed to do so if he listens to other teams. Duchene has never had the opportunity to play in a big market so why not go to the biggest in the world?
Joe Pavelski
James Prediction: Dallas Stars
Joe Pavelski and the San Jose Sharks have been searching together for a Stanley Cup for 13 seasons. It hasn’t happened, and this past season may have been one of the best chances (on paper) for the team and Pavelski to reach that goal. They’re definteily close to a cup, but with their cap problems, the Sharks have to move on from Pavelski. Pavelski was very productive this past season, scoring 38 goals and totaling 64 points. Along with his stellar performance, he provides leadership. Dallas has about $10.2 million in cap space, which will be enough to sign Pavelski. They are in need of a second line center behind Tyler Seguin. After a pretty decent season, they are in win now mode. A deal gets done between these two parties.
Kyle Prediction: Tampa Bay Lightning
It seems like this is a three-team race, Dallas, Tampa, and San Jose. I don’t think the door should be completely shut on the Sharks but they are going to have to make a sacrifice and it looks like Pavelski may be the player they let go. It probably would be the smart decision but definitely not an easy one. Pavelski has to be focused on contending teams as his ultimate goal has to be to win a Cup. Dallas probably needs him more but if Tampa can make room for him, it should be a no-brainer. Playing in a state with no income taxes should allow them to sign him to a contract whose gross value is below his market value. Tampa should be the Cup favorites again this year so Pavelski would be going to the team that should give him the best spot to win.
Andres Lee
James Prediction: New York Islanders
Anders Lee is the captain of the Islanders team, and I doubt they are looking to find a new one once again after losing John Tavares to Toronto. Lee is a productive player who is good for 50 points each season. As a key piece of the team both on the ice and in the locker room, it makes too much sense for both the team and the player to work out a deal. It will be north of Brock Nelson’s 6 year, $6 million AAV, but that shouldn’t deter the team from locking Lee up. A goal scoring threat and a team leader, it may be best for both sides to continue with what they’re both comfortable with.
Kyle Prediction: New York Islanders
I just can’t see how the Islanders could possibly let their captain walk as a free agent two years in a row, especially considering the season they are coming off of. The team has plenty of cap space to make the deal happen. The concern would be committing dollars and term to a power forward approaching 30. If the Islanders can make a big splash (Marner? Panerin?), maybe their fans would be forgiving of losing Lee. Maybe Lee looks to go home to Minnesota but there are no indications that he is looking to leave New York. Colorado and Chicago are also teams to keep an eye on.
Gustav Nyquist
James Prediction: Colorado Avalanche
The Colorado Avalanche were a pretty exciting team to watch this season. Well, at least their top line was. After that, the team lacked any punch on offense. Secondary scoring will be a priority for the Avalanche. With multiple center prospects who are looking at NHL time like Kerfoot, Jost, and Compher, bringing in a veteran winger who can score goals will do wonders for their development. That is where Gustav Nyquist comes in. Over 81 games with the Detroit Red Wings and San Jose Sharks, Nyquist scored 22 goals and 38 assists for 60 points. He also did well during the playoffs, with a goal and ten assists in 20 games. The Avalanche have $37 million in cap space this offseason, the most of any team. This type of move is a no brainer. They have the ability to be the highest bidder and should do what it takes to get Nyquist. It will help their offense grow moving forward.
Kyle Prediction: Columbus Blue Jackets
If my prediction of Duchene leaving Columbus is correct, the Blue Jackets are going to have to dip into the free agent market and add some firepower up front. They aren’t going to be able to add via trade as they are void of quality assets so a replacement for Panerin and Duchene will have to come via free agency. I think Nyquist is the biggest name they will have a chance at landing and it doesn’t seem like Nyquist necessarily has his sights set anywhere. If Columbus has the best offer, which they likely will, I think it’s very plausible he signs there.
Ryan Dzingel
James Prediction: Minnesota Wild
Ryan Dzingel had quite the year with the Ottawa Senators, scoring 22 goals and 22 assists in 57 games. After being traded to Columbus, he scored 4 goals and 8 assists in 21 games. As a player who can play both center and the wing, he could be very valuable to some teams. He most likely slides in on the second or third line of a team. For reasons unknown, the Minnesota Wild seem likely to move Jason Zucker. He will need to be replaced and the Wild should have enough cap space to bring in a player like Dzingel even if salary comes back in the Zucker trade. Bringing in Dzingel should help the Wild stay relevant and push for the playoffs, but more will need to happen for the team to get back on track after this past season. Dzingel may be the first step, especially if Zucker is traded.
Kyle Prediction: Buffalo Sabres
This fit makes a lot of sense to me. The Sabres need a second-line center for the short-term. The Sabres probably should’ve inquired on Carl Soderberg and should look to capitalize if another team is looking to shed a veteran’s cap hit. Buffalo shouldn’t have a salary cap issue this year nor next. Since that route doesn’t seem likely, Dzingel would be the best alternative. I don’t see Dzingel as a long-term center option but he could prove to be an adequate stopgap while some of the younger Sabre centers develop. With the Sabres drafting another young center, Dylan Cozens, with the 7thoverall pick in the 2019 draft and already having Casey Mittelstadt, the team better have hit on at least one of the two players. One of the two has to be penciled into the second-line center role in two to three seasons so committing high dollar and long term to anyone who is older will probably be a mistake. If they can swing a trade for a young, proven center, that’d be fine but I highly doubt that happens. Dzingel likely won’t command top dollar or term and also has flexibility to play the wing.
Phil Kessel
James Prediction: Pittsburgh Penguins
I think it would be ideal for the Penguins to find a suitor for Phil Kessel. He is only getting older and each year seems like he is possibly on the outs. His high cap hit may deter some teams as he ages, and many teams with a lot of cap space don’t seem like realistic fits. That ultimately keeps him in Pittsburgh. While it isn’t the best outcome, you still have a (most likely) 30 goal scorer for at least another season. It isn’t necessarily a bad thing.
Kyle Prediction: Arizona Coyotes
This fit seems to make way too much sense. Arizona needs scoring and it seems like one of the few destinations Kessel would be open to going to. Yes, Rutherford has said he is perfectly fine keeping Kessel, but that is exactly what you say when one team knows they hold all the leverage in the negotiations. Rutherford needs Arizona to show a little urgency to make this deal happen. I think Arizona is smart enough to realize they can add a productive player for a discount. There has been too much smoke around Kessel to have Pittsburgh keep him so I have predicting he ends up in the most likely trade destination.
Jason Zucker
James Prediction: Boston Bruins
The Boston Bruins, coming off a great season where they just missed another Stanley Cup, are most likely going to have an empty spot on the second line wing next to David Krejci. One thing they could look to do is move a player from their center depth and add Jason Zucker. It is clear that Zucker is on his way out of Minnesota. From the Zucker/Kessel rumors, it is also clear that Minnesota is looking for another good forward in return. In return for Zucker, the Wild would receive RFA forward Danton Heinen and a 2019 3rdround pick. While Heinen might not become quite the goal scorer that Zucker can be, he is a young playmaker who has looked good in both the offensive and defensive end. When given the ice time, he should produce 40 to 50 points consistently. Boston has a lot of options at center. With this trade, they can still role with Bergeron, Krejci, Coyle, and Kuraly down the middle. They also have center prospects Trent Frederic and Jack Studnicka on the way. With $14 million in cap space, Boston can afford to add Zucker’s $5.5 million. Minnesota would have about $27 million without Zucker, easily allowing them to extend Heinen somewhere in the $3.5 million to $5 million range. This type of deal gets Boston a top six winger and Minnesota a young developing winger and a pick that could allow them to be more open to other trades during the draft. This deal works for both teams, on the ice and cap wise.
Kyle Prediction: Minnesota Wild
I think Jason Zucker still wants to stay in Minnesota despite all the trade rumors swirling. The team has made enough bad trades of their scoring forwards that maybe they will learn their lesson and keep Zucker, who has been arguably their most important forward the past couple years. They have had two trades fall through and when I look around the league, I don’t see enough teams having the cap space, assets, and a place Minnesota would be willing to send Zucker. The team is also under a time crunch with Zucker having a no-trade clause kicking in on July first that will further limit Minnesota. Unless the Wild are close on a deal, they likely would be rushing into something, which would be a very bad idea and how they end up with Viktor Rask again.
Defensemen
Jake Gardiner
James Prediction: St. Louis Blues
The Blues are in a great spot to add some salary if they choose to do so. One spot that could be bolstered is their blueline. The top four currently consists of Pietrangelo, Parayko, Dunn, and Bouwmeester. Ideally, Bouwmeester would take on more of a bottom pair role along with defensemen like Joel Edmundson (RFA) or Robert Bortuzzo. That leaves an open spot in the top four. Dunn and Pietrangelo played the most together and it went very well for them both. That would leave Jake Gardiner slotting in next to Colton Parayko. Both of these pairings would be very capable of playing minutes against other teams’ top lines. Cap wise, the Blues have about $18.7 million projected to spend. They don’t have many free agents who will break the bank. Binnington, Sundqvist, Maroon, and Edmundson are the somewhat main pieces that may need to be resigned. With Gardiner projecting to come in around $7 million a year, they’d still have just under $12 million to resign those pieces. They may also look to move a contract like Jake Allen ($4.35). Alexander Steen would be good to move, but with a not so good year and a full no trade clause, it may be tough to do so. Either way, the Blues have the ability to add to their roster, and further strengthening the defensive group with Gardiner will only increase the chances they go far once again in the playoffs next season.
Kyle Prediction: Detroit Red Wings
Steve Yzerman has to make some major changes to his team’s roster because it is nowhere near good enough. They have some nice forwards to build around but their defense is dreadful. They also only have one veteran defensemen, Danny DeKeyser, under contract past this upcoming season. If the team could add Gardiner, he would instantly become their best defenseman and could provide some stability at the position for years to come. The team has some promising prospects in the pipeline but having a veteran under contract as a complement wouldn’t be ideal. Gardiner is probably going to be overpaid but he is clearly the best defensemen available on the open market and a much better option than Tyler Myers. Detroit isn’t really in a position to move young assets or draft picks to acquire a defenseman so they might be wise to pay a little more in the free agent market to get a long-term option that is a known commodity.
Tyler Myers
James Prediction: Vancouver Canucks
With a thin free agent market for defenseman, chances are whoever gets Tyler Myers will overpay for him. The Canucks seem like a team that might just agree to do that. They are certainly in need of some help on defense, especially after not qualifying Ben Hutton. With about $15.5 million in cap space, they certainly have the ability to sign Myers. It has been rumored that they could be a fit for him. These two parties will find a deal.
Kyle Prediction: Vancouver Canucks
This pairing seems bound to happen. Vancouver could certainly use another defender. Jake Gardiner would be the FAR smarter signing. However, this is the Vancouver Canucks so they will not only sign the inferior player, they will probably pay him more as well. If reports that are coming out are correct, this signing will easily be in the top five for instantly regrettable moves on July 1st. I think a return to Winnipeg could be a possibility as well but Vancouver is probably going to have the best offer on the table and there is no reason for Myers not to take that.
Rasmus Ristolainen
James Prediction: Tampa Bay Lightning
I have Ristolainen in my scenario for Brayden Point. Even if it is a trade that doesn’t include Point, I think Tampa may try to make this work. They have been rumored to be in on Ristolainen dating back to the deadline. They have interest in trying to improve their defensive corps. They may be able to get a smaller deal done than the Point deal I have laid out, possibly a deal involving Tyler Johnson or Alex Killorn. Either way, I think Ristolainen ends up in Tampa Bay.
Kyle Prediction: Edmonton Oilers
There seems to be too much smoke around Ristolainen to predict he stays in Buffalo. Add in Buffalo’s acquisition of Colin Miller and the writing seems to be on the wall. The one potential wrinkle is Zach Bogosian’s health. If the Sabres don’t think Bosogian will play a game this season, or at least miss a good portion of the season, the team might hold on to Ristolainen so they don’t find themselves in a pinch on the right-side. However, there are plenty of teams in need of defensemen and a thin UFA class should lead to plenty of interest in Ristolainen. As a new GM in Edmonton, Ken Holland will certainly be looking to put his stamp on the roster. I wonder if Holland would be willing to swing big and move Jesse Puljijarvi and one of Darnell Nurse or Oscar Klefbom for Ristolainen and possibly another asset from Buffalo. In any deal with Edmonton, the Sabres should look to get Puljijarvi included. Many of their prospects are European born so Puljijarvi should be in a better situation to succeed. If one of Klefbom or Nurse came back, that would be an absolute coup for Buffalo. It shouldn’t happen but I don’t think it’s entirely out of question.
Nikita Zaitsev
James Prediction: Toronto Maple Leafs
Zaitsev has apparently asked for a trade out of Toronto. The Leafs have said they will try to accommodate him, but not at the expense of their team. His contract is not the greatest for the value that he provides. Because of that, it will make it hard for Toronto to move him without taking salary back. That would defeat the purpose of moving him especially because they need more NHL defenseman, not less. The Leafs end up keeping Zaitsev.
Kyle Prediction: Ottawa Senators
As I was finishing this piece it has been reported by Elliotte Friedman that Zaitsev to Ottawa was likely. James wrote his before the news. If Ottawa can get some additional assets for taking on the contract, this trade makes a lot of sense. If Cody Ceci goes back, that also would be a win for Ottawa.
Kevin Shattenkirk
James Prediction: New York Rangers
Shattenkirk is making $6,650,000 for the next two seasons. There have been rumors of a trade, but based on his recent play, it’d be tough to see a team wanting to take Shattenkirk without sending a so-so contract back to the Rangers. New York just traded for Jacob Trouba and that will allow Shattenkirk to play a slightly smaller role. Hopefully that helps, because I don’t think it makes too much sense to move him at this point because of the type of trade that would need to be done.
Kyle Prediction: Tampa Bay Lightning
Tampa Bay needs a right shot defenseman and Shattenkirk could be a nice fit with the Lightning provided the Rangers are willing to retain some salary. If the Lightning could get one of Palat, Gourde, Johnson, or Killorn to waiver their no-trade, New York could get a nice return as they would certainly have the salary cap space to make this move work. If they want to opt for a prospect, they could probably leverage a quality one if they are willing to retain half Shattenkirk’s salary.
Carolina Defense
James Pick: Brett Pesce to Toronto
Carolina is in need of improving their forward group. They have arguably the best defensive corps in the NHL. This deal will involve Brett Pesce going to Toronto and William Nylander going to Carolina. Toronto will receive a really good defenseman who is making $4,025,000 for the next five seasons, while Carolina will receive a top six forward who can instantly be put on Aho’s wing or make the second line in Carolina stronger for the next five seasons. This also clears some cap space for Toronto, which should really help spark their interest in making this happen.
Kyle Pick: Brett Pesce to Winnipeg
I have been all over this trade since January. I think a swap of Pesce for Nikolaj Ehlers would make a lot of sense for both teams. Winnipeg would get their RHD with a cost-controlled contract that they will desperately need this offseason with the departure of Trouba and likely departure of Myers, while Carolina would get someone who can add some offensive bunch. The trade of Calvin de Haan makes another trade of a defender less likely, but using another one of their defenders is likely the best option to acquire someone cost controlled without breaking the bank.
Goalies
Sergei Bobrovsky
James Pick: Florida Panthers
I believe that Bobrovsky will follow Panarin to Florida. The Panthers need a starting goalie and have been rumored to have some big plans for this offseason. On top of that, Bobrovsky has basically followed Panarin around on free agent visits, leading many to believe that the two players will be a package deal. Florida has just under $24 million in cap space, which is enough for both Panarin and Bob. Not only does the friendship point to this happening, but there is a natural fit with the team as well.
Kyle Pick: Florida Panthers
This seems inevitable but I think this will be a move Florida ends up in a few years. Florida coaxed Roberto Luongo into retirement and seemed poised to move on from James Reimer as well. All of this doesn’t happen unless the Panthers are confident in landing Bobrovsky. There are savvier moves that the Panthers could make but they’re going for the tidal wave so here comes Bobrovsky.
Robin Lehner
James Pick: New York Islanders
I think that the Islanders will have their nose in just about everything this summer. Even looking at Panarin and Bobrovsky is an option for them. However, Lehner seems very interested in resigning. If they are able to get Lehner on a discount, it may be very beneficial to pull the trigger on this deal. Lehner really found his game with the Islanders and looked like a clear number one goalie. Ultimately, the two sides find common ground to keep a strong relationship between player and team intact.
Kyle Pick: Carolina Hurricanes
The Hurricanes made a very interesting trade in moving Calvin de Haan, which cleared $4.55M in cap space. Lehner will likely require more than that but that cap space will go a long way. I don’t think a return to New York should be ruled out but the Islanders might not want to pay Lehner what he thinks he deserves. I think there is also a question of whether Lehner was a product of the system and whether or not the team could plug someone else in at a cheaper price. The Islanders might be wise to gamble on letting Lehner go while Carolina might want to take the gamble on Lehner. The Hurricanes were the runner-up in the East and their weakest link was definitely their goaltending. If Lehner works out, Carolina could be a serious threat in the East next season.
Feature Image via NBC Sports.
KYLE STICH is the Director of AFP Analytics. In addition, Mr. Stich is a tax specialist and Director of Operations at AFP Consulting LLC, whose clientele include professional athletes performing services on three separate continents. Mr. Stich earned his Master of Science in Sport Management with a Concentration in
James Finch is an analyst at AFP Analytics. James graduated from St. John Fisher College in 2019 with a bachelor’s degree in Sport Management with a minor in Economics. His background with sports and economics have brought about an interest in gaining experience and finding his niche within the