Quick Picks: Under the Radar 2023 UFAs
With NHL free agency getting closer and closer (July 1st), I’m continuing to look over the free agent class and evaluate which players I believe would be good targets. Today’s article is focused on players who I believe could provide good value on the contract we have projected for them. The intention here is to identify a center, two wingers, two defensemen, and one goalie. A starting lineup of some of my favorite value targets on the unrestricted free agent (UFA) market. Both player performance, as well as our AFPAnalytics contract projections, are factored into this process.
Center – Evan Rodrigues (COL) – Projected 3 years, $3,708,278.95AAV
Rodrigues is an ideal third line forward who certainly has the ability to move up in the lineup if needed. This contract doesn’t break the bank for someone who could be a second line center in a pinch. Playoff teams need players like this.
Left Wing – Jonathan Drouin (MTL) – Projected 1 year, $1,978,115.00AAV
If a team is looking for someone on a cheap deal who has the potential to outperform his salary, Drouin could be that guy. A playmaker who needs to find a comfortable situation, he may be able to perform on a good top six line and reset his value.
Right Wing – Tomas Tatar (NJD) – Projected 3 years, $3,368,330,36AAV
Tatar has been one of my favorite middle six wingers in the NHL for the past few seasons. He has some very solid underlying numbers that suggest he would outperform this contract.
Left Defense – Calvin de Haan (CAR) – Projected 2 years, $1,626,108.97AAV
Need a bottom pair defenseman? Calvin de Haan has quietly become a very solid one for the Carolina Hurricanes. This contract is about what a team should be looking to pay a bottom pair defenseman, but picking de Haan would be choosing wisely. He is solid, and others at or above this rate of pay might not actually be as good. A sneaky depth addition.
Right Defense – Connor Clifton (BOS) – Projected 2 years, $1,743,647.00AAV
To continue with possible sneaky depth additions, Connor Clifton has become a real solid presence on the bottom pair in Boston. I’d be curious to see if he goes to a non-contender in an attempt to get more minutes to build on his value. Regardless, like de Haan, he should be able to provide great play on a bottom pair.
Goalie – Anthony Stolarz (ANA) – Projected 2 years, $1,566,763.64AAV
Stolarz is unlikely to be a goalie who handles more than a backup’s share of games. Having said that, he has quietly been a very solid number two option behind John Gibson in Anaheim. While this season was slightly down for him, he had an awful defense in front of him. If I’m a team with a clear starter but am in need of someone that can be relied on for 20-25ish games, Stolarz is my pick from this free agent class.
C Pius Suter (DET) – Projected 2 years, $1,853,271.79AAV
LW Danton Heinen (PIT) – Projected 3 years, $2,452,263.16AAV
RW Craig Smith (WSH) – Projected 1 year, $1,278,904.05AAV
LD Erik Gustafsson (TOR) – Projected 3 years, $3,414,520.73AAV
RD Kevin Shattenkirk (ANA) – Projected 2 years, $3,023,627.78AAV
G Alex Nedeljkovic (DET) – Projected 1 year, $1,245,402.50AAV
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2019 NHL Free Agents: Five Remaining UFAs Who Could Provide Value
After the initial rush of the 2019 free agency period, there are still many players looking for an opportunity with an NHL club. There are some well-known names still currently looking for a new contract, like Jake Gardiner and Joe Thornton. However, we believe that there is value to be found with the players who aren’t as well-known and who may be looking for an opportunity at a larger role. We have identified five players that teams should be targeting that will, worst case scenario, improve the organizations depth. Best case scenario, these players may surprise and play their way into a more significant role on the team.
Safest Bet: Dmitrij Jaskin
After being a second-round pick in 2011, many within the hockey industry thought that Dmitrij Jaskin would become a solid middle
Most Likely to Take the Next Step to the NHL: Rourke Chartier
Rourke Chartier is a 23 year old forward who has hit the UFA (unrestricted free agent) market. Other players at that age have been in this situation before, but the numbers that Chartier has produced make him stand out. Chartier was a very productive WHL player in his junior days. Once he moved to the AHL in the San Jose Sharks organization, his game seemed to translate well. His first AHL season, he played 67 games and produced 35 points. AHL season number two saw him post 21 points in 28 games. This past season in the AHL, he had 18 points in 26 games. These numbers don’t jump off the page, but they are very respectable. Chartier also saw 13 games in the NHL this past season. In these games, he had just one goal. While that is not great, his underlying numbers gave a glimpse of hope. He averaged 9:24 TOI (time on ice), leading us to the conclusion that he was playing in a fourth line role. He produced a CF% of 53.15%. While that is good, his CF% relative was -4.86%, painting a more negative picture. Looking at these numbers, we can draw the conclusion that he may have benefited from playing on a great San Jose team but would not have been one of the better options in comparison to his teammates. However, we believe that based off of his AHL numbers and the fact that he is still young, he has the ability to make the jump to the NHL. A team looking to take a chance on an AHL player who may be able to become an adequate option on an NHL fourth line should be looking at Chartier. He should end up signing for the minimum, so this would be a low-risk option. Worst case scenario, he plays well in the AHL. Ideally, he takes the next step and becomes an option for the NHL roster.
Top Six Fill in: Pontus Aberg
Pontus Aberg is a former top second-round pick of the Nashville Predators. While he looked good for their AHL affiliate, his numbers did not translate well to the NHL. We would like to highlight that in 37 games with Nashville during the 2017-2018 season, he played over 160 minutes with Calle Jarnkrok. Jarnkrok was the Nashville forward that Aberg played the most minutes with. Aberg finished the 2017-2018 season with the Edmonton Oilers after being traded midseason. In 16 games with the Oilers, Aberg had two goals and six assists for a total of eight points. While his CF% was 48.49, his relative CF% was 2.25%, showing that the team was better when he was on the ice. In these 16 games with Edmonton, Aberg played 75 or more minutes with Drake Caggiula, Leon Draisaitl, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.
In the 2018-2019 season, Aberg started off with the Anaheim Ducks after being claimed on waivers. In 37 games with the Ducks, Aberg had 19 points. He produced a CF% of 53.60%, and a relative percentage of 7.73%. Aberg looked great playing with his most common Anaheim forward teammates of Ryan Getzlaf (274:46 TOI), Rickard Rakell (130:01 TOI), and Adam Henrique (129:52 TOI).
Midseason, Anaheim traded Aberg to the Minnesota Wild. With the Wild, Aberg struggled in 22 games. He only produced six points. Aberg’s underlying numbers were not good either. He had a CF% of 46.90%, with a relative CF% of -4.70%. Aberg was not helping the Wild when he was on the ice. He was very replaceable on their team. With Minnesota, the most common forward teammates that Aberg played with were Victor Rask (93:03 TOI) and Zach Parise (82:13 TOI).
The main thing that stands out here is that Aberg provided quality numbers when playing with top players. He has been at his best level of play with Ryan Getzlaf and Leon
Veteran Depth Player: Oscar Lindberg
As a former second-round pick, Lindberg came into the league as someone who projected to be a decent middle-six option within the forward group. That never really happened, as the most points he has ever produced in a single year was 28 in the 2015-2016 season. However, he has established himself as a decent bottom-six option. This past year, his season was split between the Vegas Golden Knights and the Ottawa Senators. With Vegas, Lindberg had four goals and eight assists in 35 games. His CF% was 56.44%, with a relative CF% of 4.21%. With Ottawa, Lindberg produced five goals and three assists in 20 games. His CF% was 44.70, with a relative CF% of 0.18%. His numbers looked really good with Vegas. Once he got to Ottawa, his underlying numbers fell, but he produced at a better rate. However, Lindberg was on a really good Vegas team, playing with other quality bottom-six forwards like Cody Eakin and Ryan Carpenter. In Ottawa, he was still making the team better in relation to other players on his team while playing with fringe NHL players, Magnus Paajarvi and Brian Gibbons. After looking at these statistics, we believe that Lindberg would be a quality veteran player to put into your bottom six. If he has other similar players around him, he will look good. If he plays with players who may fit better in the AHL, he may still have the offensive ability to stay serviceable in his NHL role. Ultimately, Lindberg is a solid veteran option to have on your NHL roster.
Boom/Bust Potential: Stefan Noesen
Stefan Noesen was a first round pick in 2011 for the Ottawa Senators. He first broke into the NHL with the Anaheim Ducks, but over three seasons of very limited time, he found himself in the New Jersey Devils organization via waivers. Noesen has had some problems dealing with injuries in his career, but he was able to put together a 72 game season in 2017-2018 with the Devils. During this season, he had 13 goals and 14 assists for a total of 27 points. His CF% was 51.62% with a relative CF% of 3.23%. This was Noesen’s first season where he came close to playing all of the games. The team would have liked to see him take another step forward in 2018-2019, but the opposite happened. Finding himself on the injured list three times throughout the season, Noesen played only 41 games. In those 41 games, he had only three goals and five assists for a total of eight points. His underlying numbers didn’t help either, as his CF% was 45.65% and his relative CF% was -2.74%. Noesen went from looking like a guy who could become a solid middle six option to a guy who may struggle to find an NHL opportunity. The Devils did not give him a qualifying offer this offseason, making him
Photo by Ethan Miller / Getty Images
James Finch is an analyst at AFP Analytics. James graduated from St. John Fisher College in 2019 with a bachelor’s degree in Sport Management with a minor in Economics. His background with sports and economics have brought about an interest in gaining experience and finding his niche within the sport analytics field.
NHL 31 in 31 Season Review: Florida Panthers
For the next 31 days, AFP Analytics is going to take a critical look back at how the season played out for all 31 NHL teams, starting with the last place team (Buffalo Sabres) and ending with the Stanley Cup Champions. In addition to a season recap, we will look at some major decisions the team will be facing this offseason.
Next up in our 31 in 31 season review is a look at the Florida Panthers, a team who struggled for much of the season but were in playoff contention into the final weekend of the regular season thanks to a late season surge. Luckily for the Panthers, they now have good hockey men calling the shots once again. They clearly came to their senses after one season of going all in on analytics that the embrace of data clearly does not work. I find it unbelievable that those computer boys couldn’t predict injuries. I turned the sarcasm meter up to 10 to type that. I usually keep this section short but I think it is important to address the premise of what I just typed.
I do not know exactly how many teams employ someone to act as an analyst but I would expect it is more than many would make expect. However, I wonder how much of a voice those analysts are given and how many organizations will fully embrace the use of analytics. Some team will try to fully buy in like the Panthers did two offseasons ago. The problem is teams will look at the Panthers and think the embrace of analytics was a failure and because of that not embrace it themselves. I still think we are a few years away from seeing another team try like the Panthers did. Maybe I am wrong and a team has quietly done just that but from my outside perspective, I don’t see it.
I think all parties with any sort of influence are to blame here. First, although I wrote the first paragraph in this section almost as a satire, it isn’t far off words that have been written by many media members who cover the NHL. When that is the type of perception around analytics and that is the what many fans are reading on a consistent basis, it isn’t difficult to see why NHL teams have a hard time embracing their usage. Even though public relations shouldn’t influence making decisions, it certainly will play a role. Money talks and if fans are fed a negative perception they may stop spending on the team very quickly.
Next, the Florida Panthers were definitely too fast to declare the analytics a failure. Teams usually give at least three years to new regimes to allow them to put their stamp on the team and that should have been the case here as well. The perception around the team likely resulted in them moving on quickly. Part of that was the overly negative media coverage but part of that the Panthers brought on themselves. I don’t want to start a war with what I am about to type but there seems to be too many in the “analytic community” who don’t properly deal with a dissenting opinion. This isn’t unique to hockey and is probably fine in the virtual world but when you start dealing with a business and dealing with people on a day to day basis, you have to be careful with how you treat others.
I wrote a final paper on this topic for a leadership class that I took while working toward my Master’s at Columbia University. That paper was 14 pages of content. As such, this topic is much too complex to fully discuss here so my thoughts provided here are not entirely complete and should be considered as such. However, before I dove into our regular review style, I felt the need to have that discussion as it will add context to the rest of the discussion.
Season Bright Spots
The obvious player to start with is Evgenii Dadonov. The Panthers had a, ahem, questionable offseason. The signing of Dadonov certainly was not a move that played into that. Dadonov was tremendous for the Panthers this season. During 5v5 play, he led the team in Corsi For %, Relative Corsi For %, and Points per 60. When looking at the numbers, it is hard to argue that Dadonov was the best player at even strength for the team.
Alexsander Barkov was another player who had a tremendous season for the Panthers. Barkov, who is still only 22 years old, has quietly developed into one of the league’s premier players. The Panthers raised a few eyebrows when they drafted Barkov 2ndoverall in the loaded 2013 NHL Draft in lieu of Seth Jones and Jonathan Drouin. However, his play has certainly validated the Panthers’ decision to take him above those other players. This season he excelled while playing tough minutes for the team. Barkov played the most minutes at 5v5, with a good portion coming against other teams’ top lines, and the Panthers were approximately 3% better when Barkov was on the ice versus when he was off. Not to mention he was also second to Dadonov in 5v5 Points per 60 among regular players. Not bad for a 22-year-old, who is on a team friendly contract for four more seasons.
The final player I player I want to discuss is Nick Bjugstad. Bjugstad seems to be a player who was underappreciated this season. Bjugstad was just behind Barkov in Points per 60 (.03 less) and was second among forwards in his possession numbers during 5v5 play, behind Dadonov but ahead of Barkov. I feel like I see Bjugstad’s name come up as a potential trade candidate regularly. He had struggled the past two seasons but his play this season should quiet those rumors. Despite his play in the previous two seasons, he was still signed to a team friendly contract. There is no reason the Panthers should be entertaining any trade offers on Bjugstad this offseason but who knows after the last offseason.
I’ll start with the low hanging fruit. Seeing Jonathan Marchessault and Reilly Smith go to Vegas and makeup two-thirds of one of the best lines in hockey. The team gave both of those players away in order to clear Smith’s $5M cap hit off their books. This decision made absolutely zero sense. I feel as if I could name at least 20 players at the time who are signed to clearly worse contracts before I would even start to consider Smith. It’s especially shocking that they considered the $5M cap hit a problem because of the guarantee of a cap rise thanks to the Vegas expansion fee. I think most would agree the Panthers made by far the worst decision in the expansion draft.
I am going to continue to harp on the poor decision-making process in Florida and discuss the Mike Matheson contract extension. Let me first say, I don’t think Matheson’s play was necessarily disappointing but the decision to sign him to the contract extension mid-season follows a scary trend of following a poor decision-making process. I don’t think the long-term contract is as much of a problem as many do think but I question the timing of the signing. I see no reason to ever offer a contract extension to a pending restricted free agent until they become a restricted free agent. That philosophy does not apply unilaterally for superstar players like Connor McDavid.
The reason for this philosophy is related to sample size. Obviously, the more information you can collect on a player, the better the decision you can make. It could also save you money in the long run. My philosophy could change if teams actually start to utilize offer sheets but for now, I am sticking buy it. Too often teams will try to lock up a young player as soon as they show signs of promise, which is like buying a stock at its all-time high. It is likely that after three years you should have a pretty good idea of how good of a player your young player is. By waiting the full three years, it’s very likely you will have sorted through the ebbs and flows and are paying the correct price for the player. The worst-case scenario is the player continues to get better and you end up paying them a little more money in the end. But who doesn’t want to see their player continue to get better?
I think, for the most part, players on the Panthers performed generally as expected except for the Panthers’ top defensive pair of Aaron Ekblad and Keith Yandle. It is less surprising that Yandle’s play is regressing as he is likely on the wrong side of the aging curve and maybe should be used in a role where he sees more sheltered minutes during 5v5 play. I am a Keith Yandle fan but I think the Panthers will certainly come to regret the seven-year contract they gave him. It will probably be a few years too long. The decline in play of 22-year-old Aaron Ekblad has to be concerning. The Panthers performed just under 2% worse when Ekblad was on the ice. This past season was also the first of his career where he finished below 50% in Corsi For %. I don’t know if I have a ready explanation for it but it is a trend to watch. If he bounces back next season, it is likely a blip on the radar but if the poor play continues, the team and their fans certainly have to be concerned.
Don’t continue to undo everything done in the “analytics era!” I probably could leave it at that and it would be the best plan I’ve written yet. However, I’ll expand a little. The team really could use another dynamic scorer or two. Someone like a Reilly Smith or Johanthan Marchessault. Too soon? Ok, NOW I’ll get serious.
The Panthers are set up incredibly well for the next few seasons. Their young core is signed to long-term, team friendly deals and with the salary cap rising the team should have plenty of cap space the next few years. I would recommend they retain their restricted free agents in Jared McCann, Frank Vatrano, Alec Petrovic, and MacKenzie Weegar. After those contracts are signed, they should still have between $9M and $11M in salary cap space unless they choose to go long-term for any of those players.
The question is whether ownership will allow the team to spend the money. Not to beat a dead horse, but the team will have a filled-out roster with enough cap space to fit in both Smith and Marchessault. Having both of those players would be a definite improvement over any other move they could make this offseason to fill the unused cap space. Most likely the Smith/ Marchessault move was made because ownership does not want to spend to the cap, which means the Panthers are likely to have a very quiet offseason.
Please be sure to check in again tomorrow as we take an in-depth look at the Colorado Avalanche. If you enjoyed this review, please follow us on Twitter, @afpanalytics, and share it with your friends!
Stats have been pulled from NaturalStatTrick.com and Corsica.hockey. Salary info from Capfriendly.com.
KYLE STICH is the Director of AFP Analytics. In addition, Mr. Stich is a tax specialist and Director of Operations at AFP Consulting LLC, whose clientele include professional athletes performing services on three separate continents. Mr. Stich earned his Master of Science in Sport Management with a Concentration in Sport Analytics from Columbia University in 2017. He earned his undergraduate degrees in Accounting and Sport Management from St. John Fisher College in 2015, where he has served as an adjunct professor teaching Sport Finance and Baseball Analytics.