With the holiday roster freeze nearly upon us and many teams having an idea of where they stand this season, now is a great time to start looking at some trades that would make a lot of sense. It has been a trend in the NHL to start making trades earlier and earlier and the unique way this season has played out so far and with a potential major prize to be had in the draft, with another potential superstar available some teams who have fallen well behind, might be best served to help get themselves the best odds at Jack Hughes. What is maybe the most interesting so far this season is there are multiple teams who are loaded with young talent and playing better than expected and multiple teams who have talented veterans that are well out of the playoff race already.

In this article series, I have chosen five teams from each division who I believe could look to make a trade to solidify their roster for this season and maybe beyond. I will start with the Atlantic division and work my way through the league. None of these trades have been pulled from thin air. I have looked at where the teams are weakest in their “advanced metrics.” I then filtered players by specified criteria and looked at whether they would make sense for a given team. I will attempt to put a price on some targets but may not be entirely accurate. I will also add this disclaimer: I am much more familiar with some teams’ farm systems than others so please forgive me if I am vaguer with some teams than others. Also, all stats were collected as of December 11^th.

Eastern Conference

Tampa Bay Lightning

Potential Need: Backup Goaltender

Andrei Vasilevskly has just returned from injury and the Lightning have to hope that he will start to stabilize the team in net. Prior to his return, the Lightning were giving up an astounding 15 more goals than expected during 5v5 play, which is third worst in the league. The team has continued to win in spite of this. For a team who is loaded everywhere else, they have to plan for the worst-case scenario and cannot consider going into the playoffs with Louis Domingue as the backup in case Vasilevskly goes down in the playoffs.

Potential Targets:

The Lightning could look to add someone with a little term as they likely will roll with Vasilevskly as their long-term starter and finding a veteran backup to play behind him for a few seasons would not be a bad idea at all. They could also opt for a short-term answer and reassess again in the offseason. Regardless, they have to address the position. I think the goalie who makes the most sense for the Lightning is Anders Nilsson from the Vancouver Canucks.

Nilsson is currently saving two more goals than average, which is nearly nine goals more than Domingue. He is also used to playing the backup role, which I think is something that needs to be considered. He carries a $2.5M cap hit, a number the Lightning could fit now or likely at any point in future as long as they don’t make any other major moves. He is also an unrestricted free agent (UFA) at season’s end so Tampa would not be locked in to him beyond this season. I can’t him costing more than a mid-round draft pick. I also think Vancouver might like to move him and clear a spot in their net for top goalie prospect, Thatcher Demko to get a taste of the NHL at the end of the season.

A few other options for the Lightning to consider are Thomas Greiss, Jimmy Howard, and Brian Elliott. However, there are consistency and injury concerns with Greiss and Elliott, and Howard comes with a higher cap hit and might be a hotter commodity at the deadline, which might require a higher payment on the Lightning’s part, which I don’t see necessary for a backup goalie. Howard would only make sense if there is any consideration of not riding Vasilevsky in the playoffs (which I don’t think there should be).

Predicted Trade: Lightning acquire Andreas Nilsson in exchange for a 4^thround pick and the trade occurs sometime after January 15^th.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Potential Need: Shot Suppressing Defender

BREAKING NEWS: The Toronto Maple Leafs’ biggest weakness is their blue line. Oh, wait that isn’t breaking news? I’m fairly confident there have been plenty of pieces written and discussions about where the Maple Leafs’ weaknesses are. Just in case you have been living under a rock and have chosen to read my piece before any others, I will give you some numbers to consider as to why the teams’ blueline is the problem. Toronto is hovering right around 50% in their shot share. However, they are giving up close to 62 shots per game, which is third worst in the league behind only Ottawa and Anaheim. They are loaded with talent at forward but lacking when it comes to defense. One of the issues I have seen while watching Leaf games is their defenders struggle to move the puck out of their zone, which I think is part of the reason they give up so many shots per game. Please note that I am drawing my own conclusions from watching only a few Leaf games. The Maple Leafs’ Stanley Cup window is opening and they should take every opportunity to maximize it. I think the biggest barrier for them is potentially Tampa Bay and there is no chance of getting by them if they are getting hemmed in their own zone for extended periods.

Potential Targets:

This offseason is going to be tough for Toronto so they may consider looking for someone on an expiring contract. I don’t think that is a bad idea but they will likely run into the same problem again next season unless they acquire someone with term. Considering a long-term solution on the blue line will likely require the team to move one of their young dynamic forwards, they could look for a short-term solution to make a run this year and then look to address the long-term issue in the offseason where it might be easier to stomach moving one of their young forwards. As far as on-ice performance goes, I looked for a defender who was better than average in terms of shots against. I also looked for players whose team was expected to outscore the other team while they were on the ice. Ironically, there are three players currently in Toronto’s organization that appear on this list, Travis Dermott, Igor Ozhiganov, and Martin Marincin. Just because these players passed my initial filter, I also recognize it is impractical for Toronto to heavily rely on them this season. Maybe they are long-term answers but Toronto should be in win-now mode and they aren’t going to get it done.

My filter produced a list of plenty of names and many of the league’s top defensemen appear (Brett Burns, Kris Letang, Ryan McDonagh, Victor Hedman, Jacob Slavin, Erik Karlsson, Mark Giordano, Brett Pesce, Dougie Hamilton, etc.). There are also some names that might not be expected. Adam Larsson appears so maybe the Leafs could trade Mitch Marner for him and make the trade one for one. Oh, wait Kyle Dubas is probably smart enough to not make that trade. So getting serious there are some names that have appeared that should be very interesting for Leaf fans. Outside of the Hurricane players that I have already listed, the remainder of their blue line appears in the list. There has been plenty of talk surrounding a Leafs-Hurricanes trade because of each team’s strengths and weaknesses. That makes plenty of sense. As Bob McKenzie discussed on a recent insider trading, a trade of Kasperi Kapanen or Andreas Johnsson for one of the Hurricane defensemen would work. Justin Faulk would probably be the most likely to be moved.

However, there are a few other names that are very interesting and could be available. Jared Spurgeon and Jonas Brodin from the Wild appear. I don’t know the Wild’s appetite for trading either of those players but they could probably move one of the two in exchange for a more cost controlled forward. I don’t think this is overly likely but Spurgeon in exchange for Marincin or Ozhiganov and Johnsson could be an interesting move.

The two names I would be most intrigued with for the Maple Leafs are the Los Angeles Kings’ Jake Muzzin and the Philadelphia Flyers’ Radko Gudas. The Kings are likely going to tear things down and the Flyers could be looking to shake things up. Muzzin likely will cost a high pick and a prospect. Maybe Kapanen or Johnsson would work in a one for one swap for Muzzin but both teams might be interested in sending future assets to Los Angeles. Muzzin comes with a very reasonable $4M cap hit for this season and the next. Gudas comes with only a $3.35M cap hit over the same time period as Muzzin. Gudas, of course, comes with plenty of baggage but has been surprisingly effective when not taking cheap shots on his opponents. I think Gudas could be acquired without losing a current key roster player. Connor Brown could be someone Philadelphia might be interested in and I think the Leafs would be ok to move him.

If I were running the Maple Leafs, I would make a strong run for one of Muzzin or Gudas as my goal would be to find someone who could be acquired while keeping as many current roster players as possible. I also like the idea of acquiring someone who is signed next season to a very reasonable cap hit as this offseason is going to be a cap squeeze for Toronto.

Predicted Trade: Toronto acquires Jake Muzzin with the Kings retaining 50% of the salary in exchange for a 2019 1^stround pick, 2020 second round pick, and a mid-level prospect

Buffalo Sabres

Potential Need: A second or third line player that will help drive offense

The Sabres are one of the most surprising teams this season. They are loaded with young players and were expected to improve but not quite at the rate they have. Barring a major collapse, the Sabres should be back in the playoffs for the first time in seven years. Not only are the currently one of the top teams NHL teams, their AHL affiliate, the Rochester Americans are also at the top of the standings and boast some impressive young talent as well. Expanding things further, the Sabres have one of the highest regarded farm systems in the league. They also own four first-round draft picks in the next two drafts, including one from the St. Louis Blues that is protected this year but would become unprotected next year. In short, the Sabres have the assets to make moves if they desire. I wouldn’t expect Jason Botterill to push all his chips into the center of the table but he might be willing to move some.

Potential Targets:

With the Sabres being well positioned to be a consistent contender for years to come, I’m not sure they will be looking for short-term additions. However, I think they should and will strongly consider adding someone who can play a second/third-line role but has some term on their contract. The Sabres will have some serious money coming off their books each of the next few offseasons. However, they will hope to be shelling out big money for Jeff Skinner, Sam Reinhart, Rasmus Dahlin, Casey Mittelstadt, Tage Thompson, Lawrence Pilut, Alex Nylander, and Brenden Guhle. I say the Sabres hope they will have to shell out big money for those players because that will mean all of them will have reached near star potential. Obviously, that is unlikely to happen but it certainly has to be a consideration. Regardless, the Sabres need to be mindful that in two to three seasons, they could have multiple $9M – $11M cap hits on their books. The salary cap is rising but adding players with significant term might handicap the team down the road. Instead, they should be looking at players with two to three years remaining. In terms of on-ice performance, I looked for players who improved their teams’ offensive performance when they are on the ice. The numbers I looked at were relative shots % and relative expected goals for %. They are ninth worst generating 52 shots per game and fifth worst with an expected goals for of 51, respectively.

The list of players who fit these criteria is extensive but many are players who will never be traded. Additionally, there is likely going to be plenty of competition for the players who could be traded from this list and that could drive the price up. The Sabres might decide that the price is ultimately too high and stand pat. If they do decide to make a move, I have a couple of targets that could make a lot of sense. I have heard the name, Brayden Schenn thrown around plenty of times as a potential target for the Sabres. He would certainly be near the top of my list if I were in charge and I would look to give St. Louis their 1^stround pick back. I think it could also take another higher pick or a mid to high-level prospect, like Brenden Guhle. Jaden Schwartz is another Blue player that fits the bill. Both players have cap hits just over $5M with Schenn having this season and next remaining while Schwartz has an additional season.

I don’t think a trade with the Blues happens without St. Louis getting their first-round pick back. If the Sabres decide that is an asset that they would rather hold on to because of the possibility of it becoming a high pick, there are four other players that I like a lot as a fit for the Sabres. They are the Los Angeles Kings’ Tyler Toffoli ($4.6M, 2 years), New Jersey Devils’ Kyle Palmieri ($4.65M, 3 years), and Minnesota Wild’s Nino Niederreiter ($5.25M cap hit, 4 years) and Mikael Granlund ($5.75M, 2 years). I have heard another Wild player, Charlie Coyle connected to the Sabres. He did not meet my criteria. Out of those four names, Toffoli makes the most sense, in my opinion. I like Niederreiter a lot as a player and he would bea solid addition to the Sabres’ middle six as a possession driving player. The term and cap hit would be a concern and I don’t see Minnesota overly interested in retaining salary unless the Sabres make it worth it. I think the Kings would be very interested in Brenden Guhle as he would add some much-needed speed to their blue line. It would probably take him in addition to a first-round pick to start conversations. Tage Thompson could also be of interest to them, but I’m not sure Buffalo would be willing to trade him just yet. I think a trade with the Wild would have to start with Alex Nylander and the Devils would be interested in him as well. Victor Olofsson could also be of interest to any of these teams as he could develop into a lethal power play weapon. The Wild would also want someone who could come in and help them immediately as well. Maybe a player like Evan Rodrigues fits that bill.

Predicted Trade: Buffalo acquires Brayden Schenn and retains 10% of cap hit in exchange for St. Louis’s 2019 first round pick, Brenden Guhle, CJ Smith, and Matt Moulson and retains 10% of cap hit.

Boston Bruins

Potential Need: Special Team Help

The Bruins’ biggest need is probably a magic wand to keep all their players healthy. Since that’s not possible, we will look at the power play and penalty kill. Boston has an expected goal for on the power play of 16, which ranks 22^ndout of 31 in the NHL. They also have been expected to allow 22 goals against on the penalty kill which only trails Anaheim and Detroit. A healthy Patrice Bergeron will certainly help but a player who can add some depth and contribute on special teams would be a smart add for the Bruins who, when healthy, should be able to contend with the best in the NHL.

Potential Targets:

Although this player has not killed penalties yet this season, he has been successful in past times in his career. Additionally, he is a player that is has been on the ice for more expected power play goals than the Bruins have generated. He also is a veteran player with no years remaining on his contract and has been a quality depth player for much of his career. That player in Brian Boyle. The Bruins could certainly use some help at bottom six center and Boyle would also improve their special teams. The only concern is whether he will have the physical ability to play all penalty kill, power play, and 5v5 play.

Finding someone to help their power play, based on my criteria, will be difficult as many of the players aren’t likely to be traded. However, I think there a few interesting options that could improve their penalty kill and their bottom six depth. Ironically, former Bruin, Tim Schaller, and current Canuck, is one of those players. Additionally, the Sabres’ Zemgus Girgensons and Vladimir Sobotka, the Canucks’ Markus Granlund, Ben Hutton, Tyler Motte, the Devils’ Blake Coleman, and the Rangers’ Jesper Fast all appear. I don’t think the Sabres would help the Bruins but that still leaves plenty of options. I like Fast best of those options.

Predicted Trade: Bruins acquire Brian Boyle in exchange for a third-round pick

Montreal Canadiens

Potential Need: Better goaltending

The Canadiens have been having a quietly solid season, especially when you look at some of their “beyond the box score numbers.” Their biggest problem is they are giving up 10 more goals than expected. That can’t happen when they are paying a goalie $10.5M. They really need Carey Price to play at a higher level. However, like Tampa, their bigger problem is their backup, Antti Niemi, who is giving up six more goals than expected. Although it would not be ideal to commit more salary cap space to goalies, the team is in fairly decent shape when it comes to their salary cap so they could look to add someone who would be a more reliable backup for a couple years.

Potential Targets:

Here, I will direct you to reread the targets for the Lightning as I think many of the same should be on the Canadiens’ radar. Since I have the Lightning acquiring Nilsson, I will predict the Canadiens hone in on Brian Elliott. However, I think it could also be smart for the Canadiens to stand pat and roll with their current roster. They probably aren’t quite talented enough across the board to make a serious run this year and being patient and letting their young players develop might be the smart play.

PredictedTrade: Canadiens acquire Brian Elliott in exchange for a third-round pick and Antti Niemi

Let us know your thoughts on Twitter (@afpanalytics) and be sure to follow us as we work our way through the other divisions

Next Up: A look at the Metro division

Statistics courtesy of Corsica.hockey and contract data courtesy of capfriendly.com.

KYLE STICH is the Director of AFP Analytics.  In addition, Mr. Stich is a tax specialist and Director of Operations at AFP Consulting LLC, whose clientele include professional athletes performing services on three separate continents. Mr. Stich earned his Master of Science in Sport Management with a Concentration in Sport Analytics from Columbia University in 2017. He earned his undergraduate degrees in Accounting and Sport Management from St. John Fisher College in 2015, where he has served as an adjunct professor teaching Sport Finance and Baseball Analytics.

Now that every NHL team has played at least 20 games and we have made it past the important American Thanksgiving benchmark, I believe it is a good time to reevaluate our season point projections and see how teams are performing relative to my expectations. These projections are done using just about the same process as I did at season’s beginning. This time, the current season performance was weighed 50%, last season 30%, and the 2016 season 20%. The projected points after simulation were prorated for the remaining games and added to whatever the team has already accumulated. Buffalo is the biggest beneficiary of this process as my model projects them around an 89-point pace for the rest of the season. However, their “banked” points are what puts them in the playoffs in this model. Without further ado, here are the point projections. I have also included what I had originally projected and shown the point difference. After the point projections, I will provide a little commentary on some of the teams to stick out in these projections.

Teams I Think the Model is High On

There are always going to be instances where a team does things a model likes extremely well, and their shortcomings might not be properly captured. Here that team is the Carolina Hurricanes. I think the Hurricanes will make the playoffs. I do not think they will win their division and tie Tampa Bay for the President’s Trophy. Why does my model like them so much? It’s because they control the shot share during 5 on 5 play. The Hurricanes’ two biggest deficiencies this problem have been their shooting % and their goaltending, are not accounted for in my model. The model works off the assumption that all teams will have similar “luck.” If Carolina continues their 5v5 play and start to score at a more normal rate and get average goaltending, they could live up to what my model output is. However, it is unlikely and if I was taking bets as these projections as my current lines, I would encourage everyone to bet the under.

The other team my model is still surprisingly high on is the Chicago Blackhawks. In addition to what I have detailed above, the model also does not take into account the regression of players as they age. The model still thinks players like Duncan Keith can perform at the same level as they did a few seasons ago when the Blackhawks won their division. Like the Hurricanes, I would take the under for the Blackhawks but wouldn’t be quite as confident.

Team I Think the Model is Low On

The team my model dislikes the most who I think will finish better than shown are the Anaheim Ducks. Much like Carolina isn’t being penalized for their goaltending, the model isn’t giving Anaheim enough credit for having two of the best goalies in the league right now. Anaheim has also started playing a little better as of late. I think they will be in the playoff race until the end. I’m not confident saying they will make the playoffs but they will be in the hunt. I see them likely finishing around 88 points. They certainly won’t finish last in the Western Conference.

Teams that Fans Will Think the Model is too Low On

If a lot of Maple Leaf fans and Capital fans read this, my mentions could be lit on fire. However, I am ok with what the model has output. The Maple Leafs have been tremendous early on this season. However, they haven’t played Tampa Bay or Buffalo yet and their only game against Boston (as of this writing) was a 5-1 loss. Could Toronto meet or exceed my model’s expectations? Absolutely. I wouldn’t be shocked to see it but they haven’t played many of the league’s top teams yet and have been carried to a few wins on the back of Freddie Andersen, who is unlikely to maintain his level of play for the entirety of the season. As for the Capitals, they could benefit from playing in a weak division. The model wasn’t overly high on the team going into the season and still isn’t. Their goaltending has been average at best and injuries have plagued them early in the season. Boston and Dallas could fall into the same category as Washington.

Team that Fans Will Think the Model is too High On

If Maple Leaf fans don’t light up my mentions based on their team, I think it will because of how high I have Montreal. Montreal has been one of the teams that has impressed me this season. I was not high on them this season and thought they would especially struggle without Shea Weber but could overcome that with some elite goaltending from Carey Price. The exact opposite has happened, and they still have maintained a pretty good point pace to through the first quarter of the season. If Shea Weber can provide the level of play expected from him and Price can consistently play well, the Canadiens will certainly be in the playoff conversation until the end. On the flip side, it might be a lot to ask the team’s younger players to maintain their high level of play for the entirety of the season. Weber might take a while to reach a high level of play (if he does so at all). Price hasn’t shown he is worth $10.5M per year and maybe he never will.

All stats were courtesy of naturalstattrick.com.

KYLE STICH is the Director of AFP Analytics.  In addition, Mr. Stich is a tax specialist and Director of Operations at AFP Consulting LLC, whose clientele include professional athletes performing services on three separate continents. Mr. Stich earned his Master of Science in Sport Management with a Concentration in Sport Analytics from Columbia University in 2017. He earned his undergraduate degrees in Accounting and Sport Management from St. John Fisher College in 2015, where he has served as an adjunct professor teaching Sport Finance and Baseball Analytics.

For the next 31 days, AFP Analytics is going to take a critical look back at how the season played out for all 31 NHL teams, starting with the last place team (Buffalo Sabres) and ending with the Stanley Cup Champions. In addition to a season recap, we will look at some major decisions the team will be facing this offseason.

Montreal Canadiens

Next up in our 31 in 31 season review is a look at the Montreal. If I were to list the order of GM jobs I would want to take from most to least desirable with regards to the team’s current situation, Montreal would be in my bottom five. This season certainly was a disappointment as they dealt with major injuries to key players, namely Carey Price and Shea Weber, however, I don’t think having either of those players at full health going forward is going to majorly change the team’s fortunes.

Season Bright Spots

I have some sympathy for Montreal fans as their team really did not have a lot go right for them this season and the future doesn’t look any better. The biggest reason for optimism though for Montreal is the fact they finished with a 50.53 in Corsi For % good for 15^th overall. Corsi For % is usually a good indicator of where teams are headed and Montreal’s does signal a little optimism for fans.

Canadien fans had to be pleased with the production they saw from Paul Byron and Nic Deslauriers did for them this season. Paul Bryon has now put two good seasons together for Montreal, scoring 20 goals in each while also putting up positive possession numbers at 5v5. The most encouraging thing though about Byron is he was able to maintain a very high shooting %.

Nic Deslauriers came over from the Buffalo Sabres in exchange for defenseman Zach Redmond. I would hope Canadien fans didn’t expect much production from Nic Deslauriers when he came in. Hopefully, Deslauriers’s offense contribution was a pleasant surprise to Montreal fans. However, they probably shouldn’t get overly excited as Deslauriers’s shooting % was nearly 5% higher than his previous career high and he had the third worst CF% (46.63%) and Relative CF% (-3.43%) among players to play at least 30 games. I’m not so sure giving him a midseason contract decision was the smartest move (maybe for GM Marc Bergevin it was but he’s set the bar pretty low).

Brenden Gallagher is always one of those players that I don’t think he’s really that good but then go back and look at his stats and change my tone. He probably has been one of Montreal’s best players the past few years and he comes at a price of $3,175,000. An absolute bargain for a player that has the best possession numbers on the team (among regular players) and led the team in overall scoring.

Major Disappointments

The obvious place to start is with the injuries to the team’s two biggest stars. Shea Weber’s injury is hopefully not one that will lead to him having lingering effects. Weber has been a very durable player for his career so Montreal can be hopeful that this was a freaky blip on the injury radar. I don’t know if we can say the same for Carey Price.

Carey price has now had significant injuries in two of the last three seasons. Two seasons ago he struggled to recover from a knee injury and this year missed time with another lower body injury and a concussion. When he did play, he didn’t perform to the level that has become expected of him. By the way, next year Carey Price counts against the Canadiens’ cap for $10.5M for the next eight seasons. Spending more on one goalie than most teams spend on two seems like a suboptimal way to run a team, especially when that goalie is 30 years old and is signed until he is 38 years old. If I were a Canadien fan, I would be a little concerned.

Alex Galchenyuk and Max Pacioretty are two other players Canadien fans had to be disappointed with this season. There is probably a little more reason for concern for Galchenyuk than Pacioretty. Galchenyuk was a negative possession player for only the second time in his career. A deeper dive also shows that Galchenyuk played his most 5v5 minutes with Jonathan Drouin and dragged down Drouin’s possession numbers. Drouin’s numbers improved from 48.36% to 53.29% when he played away from Galchenyuk. Pacioretty, on the other hand, had very solid possession stats (a 5v5 Corsi For% of 53.31%).

There is a reason for optimism for both players and it starts and ends with their miserable shooting percentages this year. Both players had their career worst shooting percentages. A player’s shooting percentage generally will regress to the mean, meaning over time a player’s shooting percentage will move toward their career average. For example, Pacioretty had a career shooting percentage of 8.2% (during 5v5 play) heading into last season. This season he shot 4.72%, bringing his average down to 7.8%. We would expect to see Pacioretty to have a shooting percentage around 8% next season.

I also think there has to be a little bit of a bad taste in the mouths of Canadien fans when it comes to the Jonathan Drouin-Mikhail Sergachev trade. Drouin wasn’t bad and is signed to a reasonable long-term contract but it has to hurt to see the player traded away excel immediately and play a key role in Tampa Bay’s successful season. It also doesn’t help the team likely filled their void on blueline by handing out a long-term deal to Karl Alzner. Call me crazy but I would much rather have Sergachev and not have Drouin and Alzner (mostly Alzner). However, couple that with the continued sting of the PK Subban trade and fans must want Bergevin to be banned from using his phone.

Offseason Plans

Yikes. Remember when I said taking charge of this team would be one of the least desirable in sports? Well its mostly because the team is going to be hard-pressed to make too many major moves. The Canadiens, much like many of the other teams who finished this low in the standings, really lack top end talent. Outside of maybe Drouin, I don’t see any player on this roster who truly should be playing top line minutes for this team. They are also incredibly weak down the middle. It’s possible that bringing in some true top center talent, could go a long way to solving problems.

I would be surprised if Alex Galchenyuk is on the roster opening night. He seems to be a player that could benefit from a fresh start. There has been speculation that a trade with the Buffalo Sabres centered around center Ryan O’Reilly and Galchenyuk would make a lot of sense. I don’t know if I see the fit. The obvious detractor would be due to the two teams being rivals in their division. I don’t love using that argument as a reason to not make a trade.

Instead, I don’t think Montreal benefits from adding another long-term contract at a high dollar amount that they will likely regret in another year or two. Swapping O’Reilly for Galchenyuk would bring the team’s salary cap space to just above $10.5M. If they retain their restricted players for around $1M each, They’re quickly down to around $6.5M in salary cap space. This really isn’t much space to add the talent they need unless they make some other move.

That other move could involve Max Pacioretty, their current captain, who will be entering the last season of his contract. He’s signed for a very reasonable $4.5M and will hit the age of 30 next season. I would look to trade him this offseason. I think he could fetch a solid return from a contending team and would clear salary cap space for a significant player. The worst move the Canadiens could make is to sign him to a big dollar, long-term extension.

If you have read the entire offseason plan and connect the dots, it would be logical to think John Tavares would be a fit for the Canadiens. I agree. However, to make it happen, it probably means moving one or both of Galchenyuk and Pacioretty for prospects and picks. In other words, signing Tavares would likely be the only major roster change that would have an impact on the team next year. Tavares is really, really good but I’m not sure signing him to a deal that is at least at the level of Carey Price will really help this team. The upgrade Tavares would provide over the players the team will likely have to move seems like it would be less than you would hope if you are bringing in a star player.

Unfortunately for Canadien fans, it looks like the team is going to be spinning their wheels for many years to come. They have too much money locked up in long-term deals to players who are unlikely to perform at the level of their pay. The team has to hope it can add some impactful players in this year’s draft. Having the third overall pick and four second-round picks should certainly help, but many of the players they take will likely be two or three years away from the NHL. Fans better hope the possession numbers the team achieved this year were not a fluke and carry over into next season and translate to a better season finish.

Please be sure to check in again tomorrow as we take an in-depth look at the Detroit Red Wings. If you enjoyed this review, please follow us on Twitter, @afpanalytics, and share it with your friends!

Stats have been pulled from NaturalStatTrick.com and Corsica.hockey. Salary info from Capfriendly.com

KYLE STICH is the Director of AFP Analytics.  In addition, Mr. Stich is a tax specialist and Director of Operations at AFP Consulting LLC, whose clientele include professional athletes performing services on three separate continents. Mr. Stich earned his Master of Science in Sport Management with a Concentration in Sport Analytics from Columbia University in 2017. He earned his undergraduate degrees in Accounting and Sport Management from St. John Fisher College in 2015, where he has served as an adjunct professor teaching Sport Finance and Baseball Analytics.