2022 NHL Mock Draft

This is our mock version for the first round of the 2022 NHL Draft, which will be held in Montreal on July 7th. The first 20 picks will be split into multiple parts. The first part being which players our model would prefer to select at each pick. The explanation of our model can be found here. The next part will be our draft analyst Matt Higgs’ analysis on what he believes will happen at each selection. The final part will be the summary of the prediction, and it will include projected NHL role, as well as NHL comparable players for the prospects. The final twelve selections will simply include the mock pick, and the NHL comparable for the player.

*Note: The NHL comparable players provided are simply a stylistic comparison of each prospect, not necessarily who we believe each player will eventually become in the NHL.

1. Montreal Canadiens

The Model

With the first pick, Montreal is most likely debating between picking either Canadian center Shane Wright, or the big Slovak winger, Juraj Slafkovsky. At the top of the draft, our model really likes Wright, Slovakian defensemen Simon Nemec, and Austrian forward Marco Kasper, as the top tier guys. Although Nemec is a consensus top 5 pick, Kasper is more of a consensus top 10-15 pick among most rankings and mock drafts. Our model really liked him due to his production in the SHL this past season, the top league in Sweden, and followed it up with an impressive playoffs as well. However, Kasper is already almost close to a finished product, and there are questions about his offensive upside, which validate the reasons for most rankings having him outside the top 5. Our model really likes Nemec for the same reasons as Kasper, as he was very impressive in the top Slovakian league this season, with an outstanding playoffs as well, as he averaged almost a point per game as a teenage defenseman in the postseason. However, Nemec is not seen as a realistic option at pick number one for Montreal, which leaves Wright and Slafkovsky. While Wright was the consensus number one for the past few years in this draft class, he had a very underwhelming season this year, leaving the door open for debate at the top. Slafkovsky, on the other hand, shot up the draft boards this year thanks to some very impressive showings in international tournaments, including the Olympics in Beijing where he led the tournament in goals and won tournament MVP, as well as the Men’s World Championships in Finland. As a result, the gap is razor thin between the two players for who should be picked first. Our model was not very high on Slafkovsky, mainly due to his underwhelming production in Liiga this past season. 

Matt’s Analysis

My personal preference at number one would be USNTDP center Logan Cooley. When compared to Wright, Cooley is the far more dynamic player with many more tools, which leads me to believe he has a much better chance to be a top line, 70-80 point center. I view Wright as more of a very good, second line, 50-60 point center. When comparing Cooley to Slafkovsky, it is razor thin, but I slightly lean towards Cooley due to positional value. However, it doesn’t seem like Cooley is in the conversation for Montreal at number one, leaving it between Wright and Slafkovsky. With the draft being in Montreal, and Shane Wright being the big name and the canadian kid, It feels like there would be a lot more pressure on upper management to get it right if they opted for Slafkovsky over Wright. Montreal goes with the two-way center to give them a one-two punch down the middle with Wright and Nick Suzuki. 

Prediction

The Pick: Shane Wright, Center, Kingston Frontenacs (OHL)

Projection: Two-way, second-line center

NHL Comparables: Mika Zibanejad, Patrice Bergeron, Mark Schiefele

The Model

With Wright off the board, our model really likes Simon Nemec and Marco Kasper as the best options for New Jersey. They, along with Shane Wright, were the three players in the model’s top tier. However, according to most rankings and mock drafts, it would be a massive reach to take Kasper in the top 5. Nemec is interesting, as he has been projected to go and ranked around 4th overall, which makes him a slight possibility for New Jersey here at pick two. However, they took a defensemen with a top 5 pick last year in Luke Hughes. Nemec is also seen as more of an offensive defenseman, which is exactly what Luke Hughes is, so Nemec wouldn’t exactly be filling an organizational need here. Unless they surprised us on draft day, it doesn’t seem as if Nemec would be the pick here for New Jersey. 

Matt’s Analysis

Death, taxes, and New Jersey moving up in the draft lottery. The Devils, who were originally slotted to pick fifth, win another lottery and jump up to second overall. While I believe Cooley is the best player available, I believe Slafkovsky fits a bigger need for New Jersey. The Devils are probably looking to add a bit more size, and they already have a solid duo down the middle with Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier (as well as Dawson Mercer). On top of that, Cooley is an undersized, dynamic, playmaking center, which is what they already have with Hughes (and Hischier, to an extent). Slafkovsky gives them the big, powerful, goal-scoring winger that they need, and would fit in beautifully playing next to Jack Hughes for the next decade plus.

Prediction

The Pick: Juraj Slafkovsky, Left Wing, TPS (Liiga)

Projection: Top six, goal scoring winger

NHL Comparables: Mikko Rantanen, Rick Nash

3. Arizona Coyotes

The Model

Nemec and Kasper still remain as the top players available according to the model. While it is realistically still far too early for Kasper, I definitely expect Nemec to be in play here for Arizona. 

Matt’s Analysis

  It feels as if there’s somewhat of a consensus top three in this draft with Wright, Slafkovsky, and Logan Cooley. I believe Arizona would select whichever one of the three fell to them at this pick. In this case, it’s Logan Cooley. I also believe that if Slafkovsky was also an option here, they would still select Cooley, as he fits a greater organizational need for them. They have some good talent at wing with Clayton Keller, Nick Schmaltz, and Dylan Guenther on the way, but they do not have any top-end, dynamic, playmaking centers to play with those guys, and Cooley certainly fits the bill. He is an electric playmaker and fits exactly what the Coyotes are lacking down the middle. Although he’s a bit undersized at 5’10, he more than makes up for it with his speed, vision, hands, competitiveness, and overall explosive playmaking ability. He has arguably the highest ceiling of any player in this class, with legit potential to be a superstar down the road with time and proper development. I believe the best overall talent available in this draft falls in Arizona’s lap at pick number three. He will be heading over to play at the University of Minnesota next season, but should be ready to step into the NHL next spring after his college season ends. 

Prediction

The Pick: Logan Cooley, Center, USNTDP

Projection: Top line, playmaking center

NHL Comparables: Brayden Point, Mitch Marner

The Model

Two of the three top tier players in our model are still available for Seattle at the fourth pick. Although Nemec and Kasper are in the same tier at the top, our model still has Nemec as a higher probability to be a full-time NHL player, making Nemec the preferred pick here. If you start looking at players in our next tier, the only players who would be realistic options here for Seattle in that tier are Logan Cooley and Swedish goal scoring winger Jonathan Lekkerimaki. Cooley is obviously not available, and it’d probably be a reach here for Lekkerimaki. 

Matt’s Analysis

After taking center Matty Beniers with their second overall pick last year, Seattle grabs a cornerstone defensemen in Simon Nemec. This pick seems like it will realistically come down to Nemec and Czech defenseman David Jiricek, so it’s all about who Seattle prefers, as they are both much different types of players. Nemec is 6’0, and is viewed as more of a modern type of defenseman. He’s a smooth skater, smart, and can move the puck very efficiently. Jiricek is 6’3, and is more of a physical “shutdown” type of defensemen, with limited offensive ability. I believe Nemec fits better with how Seattle wants to build their team, and I believe he is the better overall prospect as well. Nemec may not become a true number one defenseman, but he’s got a great shot at being a top pair D in Seattle for a long time. 

Prediction

The Pick: Simon Nemec, Defenseman, Nitra (SVK) 

Projection: Number 2/3, two-way defenseman 

NHL Comparables: Devon Toews, MacKenzie Weegar

5. Philadelphia Flyers

The Model

With Nemec gone, the only player remaining in the top tier of our model is Kasper. Unless the Flyers are 100% sold on his offensive upside, it would be a reach to take Kasper here. The top remaining player in our model’s next tier is Lekkerimaki. Our model was pretty high on Lekkerimaki due to him lighting up the top Swedish junior league, as well as having pretty good production in the SHL this season, and because of the fact that he is only a couple months away from not being draft eligible until next year’s draft. There are some players in the draft class who are almost a full year older than Lekkerimaki. Another year of development could do wonders for a player like him. However, it still feels a tad early here for Lekkerimaki.

Matt’s Analysis

As mentioned before of there being a light consensus on a top 3 in this year’s draft, it also seems like there is a consensus top six, with those six players being the four already chosen in this mock, as well as Jiricek and USNTDP product Cutter Gauthier. I believe this pick comes down to those two. I’m sure Philadelphia will love Jiricek’s hard-hitting, physical style of play, but they do already have a defenseman in the mold of Jiricek in Rasmus Ristolainen. They are both big, physical, have heavy shots, and limited offense, so Jiricek wouldn’t be giving the Flyers something they don’t have. I also believe the Flyers simply need more talent and skill up front, and Gauthier fits the bill. Gauthier is a 6’2, highly competitive forward, who is an outstanding skater, and already has an NHL caliber shot. He is arguably the best goalscorer in the draft. On top of that, many teams believe he will play center at the NHL level, which only bumps up his value. 

Prediction

The Pick: Cutter Gauthier, Center/Left Wing, USNTDP

Projection: Top 6, goal-scoring power forward

NHL Comparables: J.T Miller, Pierre-Luc Dubois

The Model

The two players that are realistic options here for Columbus that our model has in its top two tiers are still Kasper and Lekkerimaki. However, it still feels a tad bit high for each player, although this is probably the last pick where neither are very good possibilities to get taken. If you look at the model’s next tier, one player that starts to become a candidate to get taken in this range is Winnipeg Ice forward Matt Savoie. Our model liked him due to his high level production in the WHL, but didn’t have him in one of the top tiers due to his height at 5’9. 

Matt’s Analysis

As mentioned before, this draft class seems like it has a consensus top six at the moment, so I believe Columbus will simply select whichever of those six players falls to them. In this case, it’s the hulking Czech defenseman Jiricek. After selecting two forwards in the top 12 of last year’s draft with Kent Johnson (5th overall) and Cole Sillinger (12th), Columbus gets their defensmen in Jiricek at pick number 6. Jiricek is a right-shot, bruising defender with size and a heavy shot, although there are some offensive limitations. He’s one of the safest picks in this year’s class. He shouldn’t need very long before stepping into the Blue Jackets lineup.

Prediction

The Pick: David Jiricek, Defenseman, Plzen (CZE)

Projection: Number 2/3, two-way defenseman

NHL Comparables: Alex Pietrangelo, Moritz Seider

The Model

Now is the range where guys like Kasper, Lekkerimaki, and Savoie start to go off the board. All three are great options here for Ottawa. Another one of the model’s tier 2 players who are a possibility here for the Senators is USNTDP center Frank Nazar. Our model liked him due to putting up elite numbers with Team USA U17 and U18 in both the USHL and the USDP the past couple seasons, as he averaged well over a point a game in each league each season. However, there are varying opinions on him throughout the scouting world, with some believing he should challenge to go in the top 10, and some believing he should be a last first round pick. 

Matt’s Analysis

This is where the draft really starts to open up. It seems like this pick is where the next tier of players start. That next tier includes Kasper, Lekkerimaki, Savoie, and Finnish forward Joakim Kemell, as well as Nazar, Savoie’s Winnipeg teammate Conor Geekie, and Canadian defenseman Kevin Korchinski, although it’s unlikely that those three would go this early at pick 7. At this point it’s pure guesswork to try to predict who starts to go at each pick, but I’m fairly confident that Ottawa is picking between those first four players mentioned, with Lekkerimaki probably the least likely of the four to go. Kasper has a good amount of sandpaper in his game, which is what Ottawa already has in many of its players and prospects, including Brady Tkachuk, Ridley Greig, and last year’s 10th overall pick, Tyler Boucher. As a result, I think they go with either Kemell or Savoie, and my guess is they take Savoie. Savoie is an explosive skater with great hands, an NHL caliber shot, and isn’t afraid to get to the dirty areas. It’s unclear among scouts on if he’ll play center or a wing in the NHL, but the betting odds would probably be at wing, due to his size at 5’9. Although, his junior coach does believe he’ll be a center at the next level. Also, don’t be surprised if Ottawa trades out of this pick, as they may be wanting to accelerate the rebuild process. 

Prediction

The Pick: Matt Savoie, Center/Right Wing, Winnipeg (WHL)

Projection: Top 6, point producing forward

NHL Comparables: Mat Barzal, Kevin Fiala

8. Detroit Red Wings

The Model

At this point, the model is probably screaming for someone to take Kasper, and I think it finally gets its wish here.

Matt’s Analysis

Just like Ottawa in the pick before, it would be a major shock if Detroit’s pick wasn’t one of those players previously listed in the next tier after the top six. However, Steve Yzerman has shown he isn’t afraid to go off the board, so never say never. Of those players, I believe the most likely candidates for Detroit here are Kasper and Frank Nazar. Nazar is very similar to Detroit’s own Dylan Larkin, both very speedy and skilled centers from the USNTDP, and both playing their college hockey at Michigan. A big difference is that Larkin is 6’1, while Nazar is only 5’10, making it a bigger obstacle for him to become a top six center in the NHL. The vastly different opinions on Nazar in the scouting world also indicate that it’s probably unlikely he goes as high as 8th overall. Marco Kasper really feels like the pick for Detroit here. He fills a need here as a potential second-line center to slot in behind Larkin, although he is very versatile and can play any forward position. There are also obvious connections with Detroit and taking high draft picks out of the SHL. Although there are questions about Kasper’s offensive upside, he’s one of the best all-around prospects in this draft, combined with very high character and a great work ethic. There’s a slight chance he may even be able to step into the NHL as soon as this coming season. Detroit takes the Austrian pivot at pick 8. 

Prediction

The Pick: Marco Kasper, Center, Rӧgle (SHL)

Projection: Two-way, second line center

NHL Comparables: Sam Bennet, Joel Eriksson-Ek

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9. Buffalo Sabres

The Model

With all three players in the top tier of the model all off the board, the remaining picks will be from players placed in the remaining tiers. Tier 2 players Lekkerimaki and Nazar still remain here for Buffalo at 9, so the model would definitely favor one of those two here. Some remaining tier 2 players from the model include USNTDP players Isaac Howard and Lane Hutson, who ranked highly due to their high levels of point production for the past couple seasons, but they are probably not realistic options for the Sabres this early. 

Matt’s Analysis

Just like Detroit and Ottawa, it would be a major surprise if the Sabres selection wasn’t from that group of six to seven players after the consensus top six. Since Savoie and Kasper are both gone in this mock, that leaves Lekkerimaki, Kemell, Nazar, Geekie, and Korchinski. In regards to Korchinski, I firmly believe that the Sabres won’t be taking a defenseman here, mainly due to the fact that the best available defensemen at this range are left-hand shots. The Sabres young cornerstone defenders right now are former first overall picks Rasmus Dahlin and Owen Power, as well as Mattias Samuelsson. All of them are left-handed, making it tough to use a top ten selection on another left-shot defenseman. Even after Korchinski, the next two best available defensemen are Denton Mateychuk and Pavel Mintyukov, and both are left-handed (and both would be a reach here at 9). As a result, I can confidently cross off Korchinski here. 6’3 center Conor Geekie is a potential option here, but Buffalo also has the 16th pick in this draft, and there’s a decent chance he could slide there, so I’d be very surprised if Buffalo used its first pick on Geekie. That leaves Lekkerimaki, Kemell, and Nazar. You could easily make an argument for all 3 of these players, so it’s tough to pinpoint which direction they’ll go. I’ll cross off Nazar just because he has the greatest chance of these 3, by far, to slide to 16, and it’s usually BPA at the top of the draft. In addition, Lekkerimaki and Kemell firmly project as top 6 forwards in the NHL, while there are questions on if Nazar will become a 2nd line center, or nothing more than a 3rd line center. That leaves Lekkerimaki and Kemell. They are both very similar players, as they are both undersized, skilled, right-handed, European, goal-scoring wingers with lethal shots. It’s tough to find many differences between the two, other than Lekkerimakki is an inch taller at 5’10 ½, while Kemell has a bigger edge to his game. It realistically comes down to who they personally prefer, as it is extremely close between the two in most rankings out there. It is tough to ignore a bit of a Swedish connection for the Sabres, as they’ve had their fair share of taking players from Sweden in recent years, including last year when they took Isak Rosen with a top 15 pick. They also have multiple Swedes on the current roster, including one of their franchise players in Dahlin, as well as Victor Olofsson and Rasmus Asplund. When watching Lekkerimaki, he looks almost identical to Jack Quinn, who the Sabres used a top 10 pick on a couple years ago. However, Kemell was leading the entire Finnish professional league in scoring early on this season before suffering a shoulder injury, but never maintained that scoring rate once he came back later on. The first half of the year, Kemell was seen as a top 5 pick, and potentially even top 3. If he stayed healthy all year, who knows where he might be going in this draft. It’s razor thin between the two in every ranking and mock draft out there, but I’ll say they go with Lekkerimaki because of the Sabres’ Swedish connection. 

Prediction

The Pick: Jonathan Lekkerimaki, Right Wing, Djurgardens (SWE)

Projection: Top 6, goal scoring winger

NHL comparable: Jordan Eberle

10. Anaheim Ducks 

The Model

With Lekkerimaki gone, the model’s only remaining tier-2 player who is a realistic choice here for Anaheim is Nazar. However, I believe the Ducks will be leaning towards taking a defensemen here. The only two d-men in the second tier from the model are USNTDP product Lane Hutson, and North Bay Batallion’s Ty Nelson. They are both undersized, offensive defenseman who the model liked because of their ability to put up points wherever they want, so it would recommend one of them as the pick here. However, neither of them are considered to go anywhere near the top 10 in this class. If you look at the defensemen in the model’s next tier, it includes Korchinski, as well as USNTDP’s Seamus Casey, and Moose Jaw Warrior Denton Mateychuk. Casey isn’t a realistic option here at 10. Mateychuk may have an outside chance, but it’s highly unlikely. Korchinski, on the other hand, is one of the frontrunners.

Matt’s Analysis

I strongly believe that Anaheim will be taking a d-man here at 10. After the recent trade of Hampus Lindholm, they are pretty thin at the position. They also used their 3rd overall pick last year on a forward in Mason McTavish. The two defensemen who are strong possibilities here for the Ducks are Korchinski and Saginaw Spirit’s Pavel Mintyukov. They are both big, mobile defensemen with offensive upside. Korchinski shot up the rankings this season, thanks in large part to an impressive showing in the Seattle Thunderbirds’ deep run in the WHL playoffs recently. I believe the greatest separator here is Mintyukov’s passport, as Russians are expected to slide a bit this year as a result of some pretty obvious real-world circumstances. Due to the considerable risk and questions surrounding taking a Russian player, I don’t expect any team to use a top 10 pick on one. On top of that, I also believe Korchinski is the better overall prospect with a higher ceiling.

Prediction

The Pick: Kevin Korchinski, Defensemen, Seattle Thunderbirds (WHL)

Projection: Top 4, offensive defensemen

NHL Comparable: Shea Theodore

11. San Jose Sharks

The Model

Similar to Anaheim, the only realistic option for San Jose in tier 2 of the model is Nazar. If you look at the next tier, a few names with outside chances to be selected here include Mateychuk, Finnish forward Brad Lambert, and Swedish forward Liam Ohgren. It’s certainly possible Lambert goes in this range of picks, but it still feels a tad bit early for him. The same goes for Mateychuk and Ohgren, as they’re more likely to go in the 15-20 range. The model’s pick here would be Nazar, and he is certainly a possibility.

Matt’s Analysis

I believe the Sharks are leaning towards taking a defensemen with this pick, as they don’t have much coming through the pipeline on defence behind Ryan Merkley. They also have their fair share of forwards they’ve drafted, including last year’s top 10 pick William Eklund, and 2020 first rounder Ozzy Weisblatt. The top defensemen available here would be Pavel Mintyukov. However, I believe the value here with Kemell sliding this far would be too good to pass up on. They’ve clearly shown that they value smallish possession forwards through recent drafts, so Kemell would make sense here, giving them another offensive weapon to add to their prospect pool.

Prediction

The Pick: Joakim Kemell, Right Wing, JYP (Liiga)

Projection: Top 6, goal scoring winger

NHL Comparable: Viktor Arvidsson

12.Columbus Blue Jackets

The Model

With San Jose taking Kemell, the same players remain as the model’s best options for Columbus. The most likely option of those players is still Nazar, although I could see them taking a swing on Lambert, who is one of the biggest X-factors in this draft. 

Matt’s Analysis

Since Columbus used their first pick in this mock on a defensemen, I believe they lean toward taking a forward if this scenario were to play out. They could take a bit of a risk and select Russian forward Danila Yurov, who is easily a top 10 talent in this draft, but will probably slide a bit due to obvious reasons. However, I believe they hold off and go with the 6’3 center Conor Geekie. Geekie’s skating is cause for concern, but he has a high hockey IQ and great playmaking ability. When you combine that with his 6’3 frame, he’s definitely got the tools to be a difference maker at the next level

Prediction

The Pick: Conor Geekie, Center, Winnipeg Ice (WHL)

Projection: Middle-six center

NHL Comparables: Ryan Getzlaf, Brock Nelson

13. New York Islanders

The Model

With the Sharks selecting Geekie, the same players remain as the model’s picks here for the Islanders, with the two most likely still being Nazar or Lambert. Lambert is an interesting one, as his uncle is newly hired Islanders head coach Lane Lambert, so there’s a possible connection there. 

Matt’s Analysis

The Islanders prospect pool is pretty much a wasteland, so they can go any direction here. They’re also a candidate to trade out of this pick. I say they go with Czech forward Jiri Kulich here. Many would say this is a bit of a reach here for Kulich, but he has been shooting up the draft boards all season, especially after an outstanding showing at the U18’s, where he led the tournament in goals and won tournament MVP. It also feels like he fits the Islanders and Lou Lamoriello’s preferred style of play with his competitive, two-way game.

Prediction

The Pick: Jiri Kulich, LW/C, Karlovy (CZE)

Projection: Middle six, two-way forward

NHL Comparables: Jake Guentzel, Yanni Gourde

14. Winnipeg Jets

The Model

The same players remain as for who the model who take here for Winnipeg. There are also a couple players in the model’s 4th tier who start to become considerations in this range of the draft, Swedish forward Noah Ostlund, and USNTDP forward Jimmy Snuggerud. Both are very possible picks here for Winnipeg. Nazar, though, would be the model’s top selection, and I believe he finally goes here

Matt’s Analysis

Although Nazar still being available here is seen as a slide according to the model, this is about the range he is expected to go. With questions surrounding the futures of Pierre-Luc Dubois and Blake Wheeler in Winnipeg, the Jets take the speedy American center in Nazar.

Prediction

The Pick: Frank Nazar, Center, USNTDP

Projection: Middle six, offensive center 

NHL Comparables: Brayden Point, Alex Kerfoot

15. Vancouver Canucks

The Model

With Nazar off the board, that leaves only four players remaining in the model’s second tier. The only one who is a realistic option here for Vancouver is 5’9 USNTDP forward Isaac Howard. He may be in consideration here for the Canucks, but it feels a tad bit early for him. Tiers 3 and 4 players Mateychuk, Ohgren, Lambert, Ostlund, and Snuggerud are all very realistic options here as well. There is also an outside chance that Tier 3 players and USNTDP products Rutger McGroarty and Ryan Chesley would be considered here, but that would feel like a bit of a reach with a top 15 pick.

Matt’s Analysis

Vancouver is probably hoping for a center here, but they’d probably be reaching if they took one with this pick based on how this mock has played out so far. However, I would not be surprised if they did end up taking Swedish center Noah Ostlund with this pick. The two best players available here for Vancouver in terms of pure talent are probably two Russians, Danila Yurov and Pavel Mintyukov. Although the circumstances are a bit more extreme this year, Vancouver has shown a willingness to take Russian players high in the draft when they selected Vasili Podkolzin with a top 10 pick in 2019. They also just recently signed Russian free agent Andrei Kuzmenko. I think they pull the trigger on Yurov, who isn’t necessarily a need here for Vancouver, but could wind up being a steal this late in the draft.

Prediction

The Pick: Danila Yurov, Right Wing, Magnitogorsk (KHL)

Projection: Top 6, scoring winger

NHL Comparables: Ondrej Palat, Marian Hossa

16. Buffalo Sabres 

The Model

The Sabres’ best choice here according to the model would be Isaac Howard. Despite his size at 5’9, he has shown an ability to produce everywhere he’s been the past few seasons. He is definitely a possibility here for Buffalo. Tiers 3 and 4 players Mateychuk, Ohgren, Lambert, Ostlund, and Snuggerud will definitely be considerations here for Buffalo as well. It is still a bit early for the other three available tier 2 players to be taken this early, which includes Hutson, Nelson, and Slovak forward Filip Mesar.

Matt’s Analysis

With Buffalo selecting Lekkerimaki with their first pick in this mock, they probably wouldn’t be leaning towards taking another scoring winger in this scenario, especially when they already have Jack Quinn and JJ Peterka on the way (However, I do think Yurov is the pick here if he’s available on draft day). The ideal pick would be a center or a defensemen. Defense would probably be the priority, as they don’t have any top prospects on the way from Rochester or anywhere else after Owen Power. They have a pretty good D prospect in Ryan Johnson, but there’s a very good possibility that he signs somewhere else next summer once the Sabres don’t own his rights anymore. In the Sabres’ last two drafts under Kevyn Adams, they have selected a total of three defensemen out of 12 picks, so they might be looking to take one or two with their three picks in the first round. The best defensemen available here is Mintyukov. After that, there’s Mateychuk and 6’4 Owen Pickering from Swift Current. All three are left-handed shots, which isn’t necessarily ideal for Buffalo, given they already have Dahlin, Power, and Samuelsson. They could go with right-handed Ryan Chesley from the USNTDP, but here would be a bit early for him, and there’s a legitimate chance he’ll be available with the Sabres third pick in the first round at 28th overall. If they look to take a center here, the best available is Noah Ostlund, who I could definitely see as the pick here, and would be my personal pick if the draft played out this way. He was easily one of the best players at the U18’s, and his stock has shot up over the second half of the year. Although he projects more as a winger in the NHL, I also think the Sabres would heavily consider taking a swing on Brad Lambert here. For years, he was viewed as a top 5 pick in this draft, but took a major dip this season. There’s been little progress in his game year over year, and he did not produce much at all this season in Liiga, even after switching teams midseason. He comes with some major red flags, including playing way too much on the perimeter and taking nights off, but he’s probably the best skater in this draft and always seems to stand out when playing against his own age group. He’s got all the tools, making him a big X-factor in this draft. However, I’d be scared off in taking him with this pick. If I had to guess, I think this pick would come down to Ostlund and Mintyukov (in this specific scenario). I say they lean towards Mintyukov, due to defense probably being the greater need in their pipeline, as well as Mintyukov simply being the much better value and higher rated prospect. He’s a very smooth skater, and fits right in with the high pace team the Sabres are trying to build. He’s not great in his own zone, and is a little wild with his pinches, which is something he’ll need to work on, but he’s an exciting defenseman and has the ability to tilt the ice. 

Prediction

The Pick: Pavel Mintyukov, Defensemen, Saginaw Spirit (OHL)

Projection: Top 4, offensive defensemen

NHL Comparables: Jakob Chychrun, Brandon Montour

The Model

With the Sabres taking Mintyukov, the same players remain as the top choices for the model here for the Predators. It’s still a bit early for tier 2 players Hutson, Nelson, and Mesar here, but this is the range where Howard will be coming off the board. He’s definitely a possibility here for Nashville.  

Matt’s Analysis

The Preds will probably be looking for a defenseman here, as there is a definite need for them in their pipeline. The best available options include Mateychuk, Pickering, Chesley, and 6’5 Swiss Lian Bichsel. I’ll say they go with Owen Pickering, who is a 6’4 defenseman who can really skate and has offensive upside. If he pans out, he could end up being a steal.

Prediction

The Pick: Owen Pickering, Defenseman, Swift Current (WHL)

Projection: Top 4, offensive defenseman

NHL Comparable: Travis Sanheim

18. Dallas Stars

The Model

Four of the seven tier 2 players from the model are still on the board here for Dallas, with Howard being the most likely of the four to go in this range. I think Dallas probably leans towards taking a defender with this pick, and the two defenders from the second tier are Nelson and Hutson, however it’d be very unlikely if either of them went this early. The available defensemen in model’s third tier include Chesley and Mateychuk, who are both very strong possibilities here for Dallas

Matt’s Analysis

With Dallas taking forwards in the first round of the draft the past few years, it has left their organizational depth on the blue line quite thin. If they do go with a defensemen, the pick would probably be either Chesley, Mateychuk, or Bichsel. I’ll say they go with the USNTDP product in Chesley, who is seen as one of the more safer prospects in this draft. He won’t wow you with his play, and doesn’t have much offensive upside, but he should be a steady presence on a team’s blue line for a long time.

Prediction

The Pick: Ryan Chesley, Defenseman, USNTDP

Projection: Second pair, defensive defenseman

NHL Comparable: Brandon Carlo

The Model

With Dallas taking Chesley, who was on the model’s third tier, the same players remain as the best available options here for Minnesota. This could definitely be where Howard goes off the board.

Matt’s Analysis

Minnesota now has this pick as a result of the Kevin Fiala trade with Los Angeles. With the Wild also getting a top D prospect in Brock Faber as part of the deal, I would be surprised if they don’t take a forward here. They could take a swing on Lambert, but I’m somewhat expecting him to slide a bit on draft day. I’ll say they go with Swedish center Noah Ostlund. Minnesota clearly values skating when evaluating prospects, and Ostlund is one of the best skaters in the draft. He has been shooting up draft boards all season, and has the potential to go even higher than this pick.

Prediction

The Pick: Noah Ostlund, Center, Djurgardens (SWE)

Projection: Middle six, playmaking center

NHL Comparable: Nico Hischier

20. Washington Capitals 

The Model

With Minnesota taking Ostlund, who was on the model’s fourth tier, the same players remain as the model’s best options here for Washington. The most likely player would still be Howard. Some potential options in the model’s third tier include Mateychuk, Lambert, Ohgren, and USNTDP’s Rutger McGroarty. 

Matt’s Analysis

We’re around the point in the draft where it becomes nearly impossible to predict each pick. Once you get to the second half of the first round, things really start to open up, and there’s legitimately 10-15 possible players for each pick. At 20th overall, I’ll say the Caps go with 6’3 center Nathan Gaucher, who has been picking up steam as a potential top 20 selection. Gaucher projects as a third line, two-way center, with the possibility of being a second line center depending on how much offense he ends up bringing. 

Prediction

The Pick: Nathan Gaucher, Center, Quebec (QMJHL)

Projection: Middle six, two-way center

NHL Comparables: Nicolas Roy, Adam Lowry

The Pick: Isaac Howard

NHL Comparable: Jeff Skinner

22. Anaheim Ducks 

The Pick: Rutger McGroarty

NHL Comparable: James Van Riemsdyk

23. St. Louis Blues

The Pick: Lian Bichsel

NHL Comparable: K’Andre Miller

The Pick: Jimmy Snuggerud

NHL Comparable: Filip Forsberg

25. Toronto Maple Leafs 

The Pick: Liam Ohgren

NHL Comparable: Brock Boeser

26. Montreal Canadiens 

The Pick: Ivan Miroshnichenko

NHL Comparable: Gabriel Landeskog

27. Arizona Coyotes 

The Pick: Jagger Firkus

NHL Comparable: TJ Oshie

28. Buffalo Sabres 

The Pick: Sam Rinzel

NHL Comparable: Evan Bouchard

29. Edmonton Oilers

The Pick: Brad Lambert

NHL Comparable: Jesse Puljujarvi

The Pick: Denton Mateychuk

NHL Comparable: Shayne Gostisbehere

The Pick: Reid Schaefer

NHL Comparable: Alex Killorn

32. Arizona Coyotes

The Pick: Owen Beck

NHL Comparable: Jean-Gabriel Pageau

Potential NHL Trade Proposals: Atlantic Division

With the holiday roster freeze nearly upon us and many teams having an idea of where they stand this season, now is a great time to start looking at some trades that would make a lot of sense. It has been a trend in the NHL to start making trades earlier and earlier and the unique way this season has played out so far and with a potential major prize to be had in the draft, with another potential superstar available some teams who have fallen well behind, might be best served to help get themselves the best odds at Jack Hughes. What is maybe the most interesting so far this season is there are multiple teams who are loaded with young talent and playing better than expected and multiple teams who have talented veterans that are well out of the playoff race already.

In this article series, I have chosen five teams from each division who I believe could look to make a trade to solidify their roster for this season and maybe beyond. I will start with the Atlantic division and work my way through the league. None of these trades have been pulled from thin air. I have looked at where the teams are weakest in their “advanced metrics.” I then filtered players by specified criteria and looked at whether they would make sense for a given team. I will attempt to put a price on some targets but may not be entirely accurate. I will also add this disclaimer: I am much more familiar with some teams’ farm systems than others so please forgive me if I am vaguer with some teams than others. Also, all stats were collected as of December 11^th.

Eastern Conference

Tampa Bay Lightning

Potential Need: Backup Goaltender

Andrei Vasilevskly has just returned from injury and the Lightning have to hope that he will start to stabilize the team in net. Prior to his return, the Lightning were giving up an astounding 15 more goals than expected during 5v5 play, which is third worst in the league. The team has continued to win in spite of this. For a team who is loaded everywhere else, they have to plan for the worst-case scenario and cannot consider going into the playoffs with Louis Domingue as the backup in case Vasilevskly goes down in the playoffs.

Potential Targets:

The Lightning could look to add someone with a little term as they likely will roll with Vasilevskly as their long-term starter and finding a veteran backup to play behind him for a few seasons would not be a bad idea at all. They could also opt for a short-term answer and reassess again in the offseason. Regardless, they have to address the position. I think the goalie who makes the most sense for the Lightning is Anders Nilsson from the Vancouver Canucks.

Nilsson is currently saving two more goals than average, which is nearly nine goals more than Domingue. He is also used to playing the backup role, which I think is something that needs to be considered. He carries a $2.5M cap hit, a number the Lightning could fit now or likely at any point in future as long as they don’t make any other major moves. He is also an unrestricted free agent (UFA) at season’s end so Tampa would not be locked in to him beyond this season. I can’t him costing more than a mid-round draft pick. I also think Vancouver might like to move him and clear a spot in their net for top goalie prospect, Thatcher Demko to get a taste of the NHL at the end of the season.

A few other options for the Lightning to consider are Thomas Greiss, Jimmy Howard, and Brian Elliott. However, there are consistency and injury concerns with Greiss and Elliott, and Howard comes with a higher cap hit and might be a hotter commodity at the deadline, which might require a higher payment on the Lightning’s part, which I don’t see necessary for a backup goalie. Howard would only make sense if there is any consideration of not riding Vasilevsky in the playoffs (which I don’t think there should be).

Predicted Trade: Lightning acquire Andreas Nilsson in exchange for a 4^thround pick and the trade occurs sometime after January 15^th.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Potential Need: Shot Suppressing Defender

BREAKING NEWS: The Toronto Maple Leafs’ biggest weakness is their blue line. Oh, wait that isn’t breaking news? I’m fairly confident there have been plenty of pieces written and discussions about where the Maple Leafs’ weaknesses are. Just in case you have been living under a rock and have chosen to read my piece before any others, I will give you some numbers to consider as to why the teams’ blueline is the problem. Toronto is hovering right around 50% in their shot share. However, they are giving up close to 62 shots per game, which is third worst in the league behind only Ottawa and Anaheim. They are loaded with talent at forward but lacking when it comes to defense. One of the issues I have seen while watching Leaf games is their defenders struggle to move the puck out of their zone, which I think is part of the reason they give up so many shots per game. Please note that I am drawing my own conclusions from watching only a few Leaf games. The Maple Leafs’ Stanley Cup window is opening and they should take every opportunity to maximize it. I think the biggest barrier for them is potentially Tampa Bay and there is no chance of getting by them if they are getting hemmed in their own zone for extended periods.

Potential Targets:

This offseason is going to be tough for Toronto so they may consider looking for someone on an expiring contract. I don’t think that is a bad idea but they will likely run into the same problem again next season unless they acquire someone with term. Considering a long-term solution on the blue line will likely require the team to move one of their young dynamic forwards, they could look for a short-term solution to make a run this year and then look to address the long-term issue in the offseason where it might be easier to stomach moving one of their young forwards. As far as on-ice performance goes, I looked for a defender who was better than average in terms of shots against. I also looked for players whose team was expected to outscore the other team while they were on the ice. Ironically, there are three players currently in Toronto’s organization that appear on this list, Travis Dermott, Igor Ozhiganov, and Martin Marincin. Just because these players passed my initial filter, I also recognize it is impractical for Toronto to heavily rely on them this season. Maybe they are long-term answers but Toronto should be in win-now mode and they aren’t going to get it done.

My filter produced a list of plenty of names and many of the league’s top defensemen appear (Brett Burns, Kris Letang, Ryan McDonagh, Victor Hedman, Jacob Slavin, Erik Karlsson, Mark Giordano, Brett Pesce, Dougie Hamilton, etc.). There are also some names that might not be expected. Adam Larsson appears so maybe the Leafs could trade Mitch Marner for him and make the trade one for one. Oh, wait Kyle Dubas is probably smart enough to not make that trade. So getting serious there are some names that have appeared that should be very interesting for Leaf fans. Outside of the Hurricane players that I have already listed, the remainder of their blue line appears in the list. There has been plenty of talk surrounding a Leafs-Hurricanes trade because of each team’s strengths and weaknesses. That makes plenty of sense. As Bob McKenzie discussed on a recent insider trading, a trade of Kasperi Kapanen or Andreas Johnsson for one of the Hurricane defensemen would work. Justin Faulk would probably be the most likely to be moved.

However, there are a few other names that are very interesting and could be available. Jared Spurgeon and Jonas Brodin from the Wild appear. I don’t know the Wild’s appetite for trading either of those players but they could probably move one of the two in exchange for a more cost controlled forward. I don’t think this is overly likely but Spurgeon in exchange for Marincin or Ozhiganov and Johnsson could be an interesting move.

The two names I would be most intrigued with for the Maple Leafs are the Los Angeles Kings’ Jake Muzzin and the Philadelphia Flyers’ Radko Gudas. The Kings are likely going to tear things down and the Flyers could be looking to shake things up. Muzzin likely will cost a high pick and a prospect. Maybe Kapanen or Johnsson would work in a one for one swap for Muzzin but both teams might be interested in sending future assets to Los Angeles. Muzzin comes with a very reasonable $4M cap hit for this season and the next. Gudas comes with only a $3.35M cap hit over the same time period as Muzzin. Gudas, of course, comes with plenty of baggage but has been surprisingly effective when not taking cheap shots on his opponents. I think Gudas could be acquired without losing a current key roster player. Connor Brown could be someone Philadelphia might be interested in and I think the Leafs would be ok to move him.

If I were running the Maple Leafs, I would make a strong run for one of Muzzin or Gudas as my goal would be to find someone who could be acquired while keeping as many current roster players as possible. I also like the idea of acquiring someone who is signed next season to a very reasonable cap hit as this offseason is going to be a cap squeeze for Toronto.

Predicted Trade: Toronto acquires Jake Muzzin with the Kings retaining 50% of the salary in exchange for a 2019 1^stround pick, 2020 second round pick, and a mid-level prospect

Buffalo Sabres

Potential Need: A second or third line player that will help drive offense

The Sabres are one of the most surprising teams this season. They are loaded with young players and were expected to improve but not quite at the rate they have. Barring a major collapse, the Sabres should be back in the playoffs for the first time in seven years. Not only are the currently one of the top teams NHL teams, their AHL affiliate, the Rochester Americans are also at the top of the standings and boast some impressive young talent as well. Expanding things further, the Sabres have one of the highest regarded farm systems in the league. They also own four first-round draft picks in the next two drafts, including one from the St. Louis Blues that is protected this year but would become unprotected next year. In short, the Sabres have the assets to make moves if they desire. I wouldn’t expect Jason Botterill to push all his chips into the center of the table but he might be willing to move some.

Potential Targets:

With the Sabres being well positioned to be a consistent contender for years to come, I’m not sure they will be looking for short-term additions. However, I think they should and will strongly consider adding someone who can play a second/third-line role but has some term on their contract. The Sabres will have some serious money coming off their books each of the next few offseasons. However, they will hope to be shelling out big money for Jeff Skinner, Sam Reinhart, Rasmus Dahlin, Casey Mittelstadt, Tage Thompson, Lawrence Pilut, Alex Nylander, and Brenden Guhle. I say the Sabres hope they will have to shell out big money for those players because that will mean all of them will have reached near star potential. Obviously, that is unlikely to happen but it certainly has to be a consideration. Regardless, the Sabres need to be mindful that in two to three seasons, they could have multiple $9M – $11M cap hits on their books. The salary cap is rising but adding players with significant term might handicap the team down the road. Instead, they should be looking at players with two to three years remaining. In terms of on-ice performance, I looked for players who improved their teams’ offensive performance when they are on the ice. The numbers I looked at were relative shots % and relative expected goals for %. They are ninth worst generating 52 shots per game and fifth worst with an expected goals for of 51, respectively.

The list of players who fit these criteria is extensive but many are players who will never be traded. Additionally, there is likely going to be plenty of competition for the players who could be traded from this list and that could drive the price up. The Sabres might decide that the price is ultimately too high and stand pat. If they do decide to make a move, I have a couple of targets that could make a lot of sense. I have heard the name, Brayden Schenn thrown around plenty of times as a potential target for the Sabres. He would certainly be near the top of my list if I were in charge and I would look to give St. Louis their 1^stround pick back. I think it could also take another higher pick or a mid to high-level prospect, like Brenden Guhle. Jaden Schwartz is another Blue player that fits the bill. Both players have cap hits just over $5M with Schenn having this season and next remaining while Schwartz has an additional season.

I don’t think a trade with the Blues happens without St. Louis getting their first-round pick back. If the Sabres decide that is an asset that they would rather hold on to because of the possibility of it becoming a high pick, there are four other players that I like a lot as a fit for the Sabres. They are the Los Angeles Kings’ Tyler Toffoli ($4.6M, 2 years), New Jersey Devils’ Kyle Palmieri ($4.65M, 3 years), and Minnesota Wild’s Nino Niederreiter ($5.25M cap hit, 4 years) and Mikael Granlund ($5.75M, 2 years). I have heard another Wild player, Charlie Coyle connected to the Sabres. He did not meet my criteria. Out of those four names, Toffoli makes the most sense, in my opinion. I like Niederreiter a lot as a player and he would bea solid addition to the Sabres’ middle six as a possession driving player. The term and cap hit would be a concern and I don’t see Minnesota overly interested in retaining salary unless the Sabres make it worth it. I think the Kings would be very interested in Brenden Guhle as he would add some much-needed speed to their blue line. It would probably take him in addition to a first-round pick to start conversations. Tage Thompson could also be of interest to them, but I’m not sure Buffalo would be willing to trade him just yet. I think a trade with the Wild would have to start with Alex Nylander and the Devils would be interested in him as well. Victor Olofsson could also be of interest to any of these teams as he could develop into a lethal power play weapon. The Wild would also want someone who could come in and help them immediately as well. Maybe a player like Evan Rodrigues fits that bill.

Predicted Trade: Buffalo acquires Brayden Schenn and retains 10% of cap hit in exchange for St. Louis’s 2019 first round pick, Brenden Guhle, CJ Smith, and Matt Moulson and retains 10% of cap hit.

Boston Bruins

Potential Need: Special Team Help

The Bruins’ biggest need is probably a magic wand to keep all their players healthy. Since that’s not possible, we will look at the power play and penalty kill. Boston has an expected goal for on the power play of 16, which ranks 22^ndout of 31 in the NHL. They also have been expected to allow 22 goals against on the penalty kill which only trails Anaheim and Detroit. A healthy Patrice Bergeron will certainly help but a player who can add some depth and contribute on special teams would be a smart add for the Bruins who, when healthy, should be able to contend with the best in the NHL.

Potential Targets:

Although this player has not killed penalties yet this season, he has been successful in past times in his career. Additionally, he is a player that is has been on the ice for more expected power play goals than the Bruins have generated. He also is a veteran player with no years remaining on his contract and has been a quality depth player for much of his career. That player in Brian Boyle. The Bruins could certainly use some help at bottom six center and Boyle would also improve their special teams. The only concern is whether he will have the physical ability to play all penalty kill, power play, and 5v5 play.

Finding someone to help their power play, based on my criteria, will be difficult as many of the players aren’t likely to be traded. However, I think there a few interesting options that could improve their penalty kill and their bottom six depth. Ironically, former Bruin, Tim Schaller, and current Canuck, is one of those players. Additionally, the Sabres’ Zemgus Girgensons and Vladimir Sobotka, the Canucks’ Markus Granlund, Ben Hutton, Tyler Motte, the Devils’ Blake Coleman, and the Rangers’ Jesper Fast all appear. I don’t think the Sabres would help the Bruins but that still leaves plenty of options. I like Fast best of those options.

Predicted Trade: Bruins acquire Brian Boyle in exchange for a third-round pick

Montreal Canadiens

Potential Need: Better goaltending

The Canadiens have been having a quietly solid season, especially when you look at some of their “beyond the box score numbers.” Their biggest problem is they are giving up 10 more goals than expected. That can’t happen when they are paying a goalie $10.5M. They really need Carey Price to play at a higher level. However, like Tampa, their bigger problem is their backup, Antti Niemi, who is giving up six more goals than expected. Although it would not be ideal to commit more salary cap space to goalies, the team is in fairly decent shape when it comes to their salary cap so they could look to add someone who would be a more reliable backup for a couple years.

Potential Targets:

Here, I will direct you to reread the targets for the Lightning as I think many of the same should be on the Canadiens’ radar. Since I have the Lightning acquiring Nilsson, I will predict the Canadiens hone in on Brian Elliott. However, I think it could also be smart for the Canadiens to stand pat and roll with their current roster. They probably aren’t quite talented enough across the board to make a serious run this year and being patient and letting their young players develop might be the smart play.

PredictedTrade: Canadiens acquire Brian Elliott in exchange for a third-round pick and Antti Niemi

Let us know your thoughts on Twitter (@afpanalytics) and be sure to follow us as we work our way through the other divisions

Next Up: A look at the Metro division

Statistics courtesy of Corsica.hockey and contract data courtesy of capfriendly.com.

KYLE STICH is the Director of AFP Analytics.  In addition, Mr. Stich is a tax specialist and Director of Operations at AFP Consulting LLC, whose clientele include professional athletes performing services on three separate continents. Mr. Stich earned his Master of Science in Sport Management with a Concentration in Sport Analytics from Columbia University in 2017. He earned his undergraduate degrees in Accounting and Sport Management from St. John Fisher College in 2015, where he has served as an adjunct professor teaching Sport Finance and Baseball Analytics.

NHL Point Projections a Quarter of the Way in the Season

Now that every NHL team has played at least 20 games and we have made it past the important American Thanksgiving benchmark, I believe it is a good time to reevaluate our season point projections and see how teams are performing relative to my expectations. These projections are done using just about the same process as I did at season’s beginning. This time, the current season performance was weighed 50%, last season 30%, and the 2016 season 20%. The projected points after simulation were prorated for the remaining games and added to whatever the team has already accumulated. Buffalo is the biggest beneficiary of this process as my model projects them around an 89-point pace for the rest of the season. However, their “banked” points are what puts them in the playoffs in this model. Without further ado, here are the point projections. I have also included what I had originally projected and shown the point difference. After the point projections, I will provide a little commentary on some of the teams to stick out in these projections.

Teams I Think the Model is High On

There are always going to be instances where a team does things a model likes extremely well, and their shortcomings might not be properly captured. Here that team is the Carolina Hurricanes. I think the Hurricanes will make the playoffs. I do not think they will win their division and tie Tampa Bay for the President’s Trophy. Why does my model like them so much? It’s because they control the shot share during 5 on 5 play. The Hurricanes’ two biggest deficiencies this problem have been their shooting % and their goaltending, are not accounted for in my model. The model works off the assumption that all teams will have similar “luck.” If Carolina continues their 5v5 play and start to score at a more normal rate and get average goaltending, they could live up to what my model output is. However, it is unlikely and if I was taking bets as these projections as my current lines, I would encourage everyone to bet the under.

The other team my model is still surprisingly high on is the Chicago Blackhawks. In addition to what I have detailed above, the model also does not take into account the regression of players as they age. The model still thinks players like Duncan Keith can perform at the same level as they did a few seasons ago when the Blackhawks won their division. Like the Hurricanes, I would take the under for the Blackhawks but wouldn’t be quite as confident.

Team I Think the Model is Low On

The team my model dislikes the most who I think will finish better than shown are the Anaheim Ducks. Much like Carolina isn’t being penalized for their goaltending, the model isn’t giving Anaheim enough credit for having two of the best goalies in the league right now. Anaheim has also started playing a little better as of late. I think they will be in the playoff race until the end. I’m not confident saying they will make the playoffs but they will be in the hunt. I see them likely finishing around 88 points. They certainly won’t finish last in the Western Conference.

Teams that Fans Will Think the Model is too Low On

If a lot of Maple Leaf fans and Capital fans read this, my mentions could be lit on fire. However, I am ok with what the model has output. The Maple Leafs have been tremendous early on this season. However, they haven’t played Tampa Bay or Buffalo yet and their only game against Boston (as of this writing) was a 5-1 loss. Could Toronto meet or exceed my model’s expectations? Absolutely. I wouldn’t be shocked to see it but they haven’t played many of the league’s top teams yet and have been carried to a few wins on the back of Freddie Andersen, who is unlikely to maintain his level of play for the entirety of the season. As for the Capitals, they could benefit from playing in a weak division. The model wasn’t overly high on the team going into the season and still isn’t. Their goaltending has been average at best and injuries have plagued them early in the season. Boston and Dallas could fall into the same category as Washington.

Team that Fans Will Think the Model is too High On

If Maple Leaf fans don’t light up my mentions based on their team, I think it will because of how high I have Montreal. Montreal has been one of the teams that has impressed me this season. I was not high on them this season and thought they would especially struggle without Shea Weber but could overcome that with some elite goaltending from Carey Price. The exact opposite has happened, and they still have maintained a pretty good point pace to through the first quarter of the season. If Shea Weber can provide the level of play expected from him and Price can consistently play well, the Canadiens will certainly be in the playoff conversation until the end. On the flip side, it might be a lot to ask the team’s younger players to maintain their high level of play for the entirety of the season. Weber might take a while to reach a high level of play (if he does so at all). Price hasn’t shown he is worth $10.5M per year and maybe he never will.

All stats were courtesy of naturalstattrick.com.

KYLE STICH is the Director of AFP Analytics.  In addition, Mr. Stich is a tax specialist and Director of Operations at AFP Consulting LLC, whose clientele include professional athletes performing services on three separate continents. Mr. Stich earned his Master of Science in Sport Management with a Concentration in Sport Analytics from Columbia University in 2017. He earned his undergraduate degrees in Accounting and Sport Management from St. John Fisher College in 2015, where he has served as an adjunct professor teaching Sport Finance and Baseball Analytics.

NHL 31 in 31 Season Review: Montreal Canadiens

For the next 31 days, AFP Analytics is going to take a critical look back at how the season played out for all 31 NHL teams, starting with the last place team (Buffalo Sabres) and ending with the Stanley Cup Champions. In addition to a season recap, we will look at some major decisions the team will be facing this offseason.

Montreal Canadiens

Next up in our 31 in 31 season review is a look at the Montreal. If I were to list the order of GM jobs I would want to take from most to least desirable with regards to the team’s current situation, Montreal would be in my bottom five. This season certainly was a disappointment as they dealt with major injuries to key players, namely Carey Price and Shea Weber, however, I don’t think having either of those players at full health going forward is going to majorly change the team’s fortunes.

Season Bright Spots

I have some sympathy for Montreal fans as their team really did not have a lot go right for them this season and the future doesn’t look any better. The biggest reason for optimism though for Montreal is the fact they finished with a 50.53 in Corsi For % good for 15^th overall. Corsi For % is usually a good indicator of where teams are headed and Montreal’s does signal a little optimism for fans.

Canadien fans had to be pleased with the production they saw from Paul Byron and Nic Deslauriers did for them this season. Paul Bryon has now put two good seasons together for Montreal, scoring 20 goals in each while also putting up positive possession numbers at 5v5. The most encouraging thing though about Byron is he was able to maintain a very high shooting %.

Nic Deslauriers came over from the Buffalo Sabres in exchange for defenseman Zach Redmond. I would hope Canadien fans didn’t expect much production from Nic Deslauriers when he came in. Hopefully, Deslauriers’s offense contribution was a pleasant surprise to Montreal fans. However, they probably shouldn’t get overly excited as Deslauriers’s shooting % was nearly 5% higher than his previous career high and he had the third worst CF% (46.63%) and Relative CF% (-3.43%) among players to play at least 30 games. I’m not so sure giving him a midseason contract decision was the smartest move (maybe for GM Marc Bergevin it was but he’s set the bar pretty low).

Brenden Gallagher is always one of those players that I don’t think he’s really that good but then go back and look at his stats and change my tone. He probably has been one of Montreal’s best players the past few years and he comes at a price of $3,175,000. An absolute bargain for a player that has the best possession numbers on the team (among regular players) and led the team in overall scoring.

Major Disappointments

The obvious place to start is with the injuries to the team’s two biggest stars. Shea Weber’s injury is hopefully not one that will lead to him having lingering effects. Weber has been a very durable player for his career so Montreal can be hopeful that this was a freaky blip on the injury radar. I don’t know if we can say the same for Carey Price.

Carey price has now had significant injuries in two of the last three seasons. Two seasons ago he struggled to recover from a knee injury and this year missed time with another lower body injury and a concussion. When he did play, he didn’t perform to the level that has become expected of him. By the way, next year Carey Price counts against the Canadiens’ cap for $10.5M for the next eight seasons. Spending more on one goalie than most teams spend on two seems like a suboptimal way to run a team, especially when that goalie is 30 years old and is signed until he is 38 years old. If I were a Canadien fan, I would be a little concerned.

Alex Galchenyuk and Max Pacioretty are two other players Canadien fans had to be disappointed with this season. There is probably a little more reason for concern for Galchenyuk than Pacioretty. Galchenyuk was a negative possession player for only the second time in his career. A deeper dive also shows that Galchenyuk played his most 5v5 minutes with Jonathan Drouin and dragged down Drouin’s possession numbers. Drouin’s numbers improved from 48.36% to 53.29% when he played away from Galchenyuk. Pacioretty, on the other hand, had very solid possession stats (a 5v5 Corsi For% of 53.31%).

There is a reason for optimism for both players and it starts and ends with their miserable shooting percentages this year. Both players had their career worst shooting percentages. A player’s shooting percentage generally will regress to the mean, meaning over time a player’s shooting percentage will move toward their career average. For example, Pacioretty had a career shooting percentage of 8.2% (during 5v5 play) heading into last season. This season he shot 4.72%, bringing his average down to 7.8%. We would expect to see Pacioretty to have a shooting percentage around 8% next season.

I also think there has to be a little bit of a bad taste in the mouths of Canadien fans when it comes to the Jonathan Drouin-Mikhail Sergachev trade. Drouin wasn’t bad and is signed to a reasonable long-term contract but it has to hurt to see the player traded away excel immediately and play a key role in Tampa Bay’s successful season. It also doesn’t help the team likely filled their void on blueline by handing out a long-term deal to Karl Alzner. Call me crazy but I would much rather have Sergachev and not have Drouin and Alzner (mostly Alzner). However, couple that with the continued sting of the PK Subban trade and fans must want Bergevin to be banned from using his phone.

Offseason Plans

Yikes. Remember when I said taking charge of this team would be one of the least desirable in sports? Well its mostly because the team is going to be hard-pressed to make too many major moves. The Canadiens, much like many of the other teams who finished this low in the standings, really lack top end talent. Outside of maybe Drouin, I don’t see any player on this roster who truly should be playing top line minutes for this team. They are also incredibly weak down the middle. It’s possible that bringing in some true top center talent, could go a long way to solving problems.

I would be surprised if Alex Galchenyuk is on the roster opening night. He seems to be a player that could benefit from a fresh start. There has been speculation that a trade with the Buffalo Sabres centered around center Ryan O’Reilly and Galchenyuk would make a lot of sense. I don’t know if I see the fit. The obvious detractor would be due to the two teams being rivals in their division. I don’t love using that argument as a reason to not make a trade.

Instead, I don’t think Montreal benefits from adding another long-term contract at a high dollar amount that they will likely regret in another year or two. Swapping O’Reilly for Galchenyuk would bring the team’s salary cap space to just above $10.5M. If they retain their restricted players for around $1M each, They’re quickly down to around $6.5M in salary cap space. This really isn’t much space to add the talent they need unless they make some other move.

That other move could involve Max Pacioretty, their current captain, who will be entering the last season of his contract. He’s signed for a very reasonable $4.5M and will hit the age of 30 next season. I would look to trade him this offseason. I think he could fetch a solid return from a contending team and would clear salary cap space for a significant player. The worst move the Canadiens could make is to sign him to a big dollar, long-term extension.

If you have read the entire offseason plan and connect the dots, it would be logical to think John Tavares would be a fit for the Canadiens. I agree. However, to make it happen, it probably means moving one or both of Galchenyuk and Pacioretty for prospects and picks. In other words, signing Tavares would likely be the only major roster change that would have an impact on the team next year. Tavares is really, really good but I’m not sure signing him to a deal that is at least at the level of Carey Price will really help this team. The upgrade Tavares would provide over the players the team will likely have to move seems like it would be less than you would hope if you are bringing in a star player.

Unfortunately for Canadien fans, it looks like the team is going to be spinning their wheels for many years to come. They have too much money locked up in long-term deals to players who are unlikely to perform at the level of their pay. The team has to hope it can add some impactful players in this year’s draft. Having the third overall pick and four second-round picks should certainly help, but many of the players they take will likely be two or three years away from the NHL. Fans better hope the possession numbers the team achieved this year were not a fluke and carry over into next season and translate to a better season finish.

Please be sure to check in again tomorrow as we take an in-depth look at the Detroit Red Wings. If you enjoyed this review, please follow us on Twitter, @afpanalytics, and share it with your friends!

Stats have been pulled from NaturalStatTrick.com and Corsica.hockey. Salary info from Capfriendly.com

KYLE STICH is the Director of AFP Analytics.  In addition, Mr. Stich is a tax specialist and Director of Operations at AFP Consulting LLC, whose clientele include professional athletes performing services on three separate continents. Mr. Stich earned his Master of Science in Sport Management with a Concentration in Sport Analytics from Columbia University in 2017. He earned his undergraduate degrees in Accounting and Sport Management from St. John Fisher College in 2015, where he has served as an adjunct professor teaching Sport Finance and Baseball Analytics.