The Best Options for a Sabres Trade of Rasmus Ristolainen

After looking at the options the Buffalo Sabres have to fix their roster logjam, we have taken the process a step further to identify possible outcomes for our most common prediction: trading Rasmus Ristolainen. It’s arguable that the Sabres have surpluses at both forward and defense but it is undeniable that the team has to do something with their defense. We previously discussed how the team has eleven defensemen and six spots to play them. We concluded that Rasmus Ristolainen was likely the odd man out. We did play out a scenario where he is still on the roster come opening night, but it seems unlikely. Teams around the league have to have come to the same conclusion as we have and are likely checking in with Buffalo to see if they can get their hands on Ristolainen. In this article, we will touch on nine teams that we think could have already checked in on Ristolainen or will if they haven’t already. We have ordered the teams based on the likeliness of a trade between Buffalo and them happening.

Before we discuss the teams that could be in play, we need to discuss our views on Ristolainen. When looking at Ristolainen’s underlying metrics, he performs at the level of a bottom-pair defenseman and that might be generous. However, those metrics likely do not reflect what the Sabres and possibly many other teams place his value at. It is very possible that teams view Ristolainen as a top four defenseman. Throughout our analysis, we consider that the perceived value of Ristolainen may very well be higher than we think it should be. Ultimately, a player’s value is what someone is willing to pay and reports are the Sabres are going to demand that price to be high. We have taken the approach that the price settles somewhere in the middle. Based on our previous article, we concluded that the Sabres would likely be looking for a top-six forward, a left-handed defenseman, or a high-end forward prospect, in that order. With that in mind, we will move into the teams and some players that a trade would likely center around. We should add two caveats. First, we don’t know how teams value certain players. We could be much higher or lower on a given player, especially prospects. Second, we have discussed what we think would be the main parameters of a trade but there is a good chance that other pieces get included from each side for a multitude of reasons.

9. Colorado Avalanche

Once Colorado moved Tyson Barrie, the right side of their defense doesn’t look nearly as strong. Currently, they have Erik Johnson and Cale Makar. If having a balance of right and left shots is important to them, they could look to make another move to achieve that balance. Ristolainen might not be the best fit for them as he and Johnson would become a 2a and 2b. They would then have ~$11M committed to their bottom two right shot defenders. However, the team does have the salary cap space to fit Ristolainen and might consider the move if they feel they can bring Ristolainen in without giving up too valuable of assets. When looking at Colorado’s roster and prospects and considering what the Sabres would likely desire, we think the best Colorado would be willing to offer is one of JT Compher or Tyson Jost, and Ian Cole. If the Sabres can’t find a better offer, they might be better off holding on to Ristolainen. A trade like this creates a bigger logjam of middle-six forwards and doesn’t significantly improve the team anywhere.

8. Chicago Blackhawks

Chicago is another team with an unbalanced left-right blue line. However, it is a problem they recently created with the acquisitions of Calvin de Haan and Olli Maatta. On paper and in a vacuum, the Sabres trading Ristolainen to Chicago for one of de Haan or Maatta would make a lot of sense, maybe the most out of any scenario. Either player would be an ideal second-pair left defender for Buffalo and Ristolainen might instantly become Chicago’s best right-handed defender (a scary thought but likely true). The issue here is things don’t happen in a vacuum. Chicago recently acquired both players and if they were going to flip either, they likely would have done so shortly after acquiring them. Chicago and Buffalo also just recently swapped a defender (Henri Jokiharju) for a forward (Alex Nylander) so the optics of them acquiring a right-shot defender from the same team is terrible. We would never say never here but the probability of this trade happening is low. If it did, a straight swap of either de Haan or Maatta makes sense.

7. Vegas Golden Knights

Again, we are touching on a team that just sent a right-handed defender to Buffalo so a trade to get a different one back seems unlikely. However, Vegas has a glaring hole on their right side and with their salary cap situation clearer, Vegas could circle back to Buffalo. In a deal with Vegas, the Sabres would need to salary match or take back more than they send. In this situation, the conversation would likely have to revolve around one of Reilly Smith, Johnathan Marchessault, or Alex Tuch. The Sabres should salivate at the idea of acquiring Tuch but Vegas isn’t likely to do a one for one swap. If a trade fit were there, Smith would likely be the player that makes the most sense. Again, we want to emphasize the unlikeliness of these teams working out another trade that involves a right-shot defenseman. The optics of trading a cheaper, right-handed defensemen to a team and then circling back to the same team and acquiring a more expensive right-handed defensemen, who is arguably a worse player, would make absolutely no sense. If we were strictly looking at roster fits, Vegas might be the most likely scenario but when considering the optics of another trade, they get bumped far down the list.

6. Detroit Red Wings

On paper, the Detroit Red Wings could really use a right shot defenseman. They are a young, rebuilding team, so a 24 year old Rasmus Ristolainen would fit well when considering the path of the team. The only problem that we see with these teams matching up for a deal is that there are not many assets that Detroit would be willing to move that would interest Buffalo in a trade for Ristolainen. The one name that sticks out is forward Andreas Athanasiou. Starting a few seasons ago, there were trade rumors around Athanasiou. However, they seem to have cooled over the past year or so. That makes sense considering he is a 24-year-old forward who just put up a 30-goal season this past year. He has become the type of player that Detroit should be holding on to. Pair that with the fact that Detroit now has a new decision-making group in the front office and it seems unlikely that they’d be looking to move Athanasiou. However, that also could be a wild card as new GM in Steve Yzerman could be looking to put his own stamp on the roster. Overall, we believe that it would be tough for these teams to find a deal, especially as division rivals. There could be a fit though, so never say never.

5. Anahiem Ducks

While looking at the Anaheim Ducks, the recent trade factor (similar to our Vegas analysis) appears. During the past season, the Sabres acquired Brandon Montour from Anaheim. While this is similar to the Vegas situation, there are two key differences. First, the amount of time that has gone by may make it more likely a deal could happen. Second, the Ducks got a good return for Montour (Guhle and a 1^st round pick). Vegas did not get a great return for Miller. The Ducks getting an adequate return might make them more comfortable with making another trade. Anaheim is in need of a top four right handed defenseman, as Josh Manson is the only option on their current roster. There are two current NHL players that could interest Buffalo in Rickard Rakell and Ondrej Kase. Both players have shown they can be capable top six options. Rakell is a 26 year old forward capable of playing both center and the wing. He also has two 30 goal seasons and is on a cheap contract. Kase, a 23-year-old winger, was injured this past season, but produced 11 goals and 20 points in 30 games. Rakell would be the first ask, but the Sabres would do well to acquire either player. While those two are great for a rebuilding team like Anaheim, they may be willing to trade from their forward depth in order to strengthen their defense with a long-term option like Ristolainen.

Another way to possibly acquire Ristolainen would be to use prospects. While we think Anaheim is unlikely to do this because of their status as a rebuilding club, it is important to highlight the prospects Buffalo would be interested in. This group includes center Isac Lundestrom, center Sam Steel, winger Maxime Comtois, and winger Max Jones. While some of these prospects may be more available than others in a trade for Ristolainen, these four would be of interest to the Sabres.

4. Edmonton Oilers

The Edmonton Oilers have been looking for top four, right shot defenseman for a few years now. There have been rumors in the past linking them to Rasmus Ristolainen. On paper, there are multiple options that the Oilers could look at to acquire Ristolainen. Buffalo could use a left handed defenseman, so a possible trade including Oscar Klefbom or Darnell Nurse may interest the Sabres. On the forward side, the Oilers have both Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Jesse Puljujarvi to offer. Trading RNH would be pretty detrimental to an already mediocre offense, so the prospect of Puljujarvi may be the more realistic option. The Sabres would be looking at either a left-handed defenseman for their second pair or a possible question mark of a prospect who could end up being a bust or pay off greatly.

Another avenue the team could look is to use prospects. While we don’t think this is likely, there are a couple prospects that would interest the Sabres: wingers Kailer Yamamotto and Tyler Benson. Regardless of the likeliness of these options, there are possibilities here that could bring about a deal between Edmonton and Buffalo.

3. Tampa Bay Lightning

The first time that Tampa Bay was connected to Ristolainen was during the 2018-2019 season. While there hasn’t been much linking them lately, the fact that there was interest in Ristolainen means that there still could be interest. Tampa could certainly use a top four right shot defenseman, as they are currently deploying Hedman, McDonagh, and Sergachev, who are all left shots. While there are not left shot defensive options to swap for Ristolainen, there are plenty of forwards who could find their way to Buffalo. Buffalo would have interest in NHL forwards like Anthony Cirelli, Mathieu Joseph, Tyler Johnson, Yanni Gourde, Ondrej Palat and Alex Killorn (in that order). Cirelli would be the ideal target as he is a young center who seems ready for a top six role, but it may be hard to pry him away from Tampa. It is important to acknowledge that Johnson, Gourde, Palat, and Killorn all have full no-trade clauses that would allow them to block any trade. Tampa has an abundance of forwards and are missing a top four right shot defenseman. Eric Cernak may soon be ready for that role but adding another established defenseman may help the teams’ defense in both the short term and long term.

While Buffalo may have their favorite targets on Tampa’s roster, the main problem is many of them have the ability to block a possible trade. Regardless, if Tampa was really interested in Ristolainen, they have enough NHL assets to find a deal that would work for both teams. If they wanted to deal from their prospect pool, it would need to include one of Taylor Raddysh or Alex Barre-Boulet. For a deal with prospects to work, the Lightning would need to shed salary in the form of Ryan Callahan’s contract and possibly add another roster player. A deal like Johnson, Callahan’s contract, and Raddysh for Ristolainen and Sheary (50% retained) could be close to where a deal like this would need to end up.

2. Columbus Blue Jackets

Columbus is a team that could certainly have interest in a top four right shot defenseman. They have Seth Jones and David Savard at the position. Any other defensive player would be playing on their off side if deployed on the right side of a pairing. Four players stand out that would make sense for Buffalo: Ryan Murray, Oliver Bjorkstrand, Alexander Wennberg, and Markus Nutivaara. Chances are, Ryan Murray wouldn’t be an option as it would create another hole on the left side of the top four defense. If the Sabres could grab Bjorkstrand in a deal, they should absolutely do it. At this point, they might be a season or two too late as he has become a 40 point player who can score goals at age 24. That would leave Alexander Wennberg and Markus Nutivaara.

Wennberg has been rumored to be on his way out of Columbus for quite some time, as he took a step back after the 2016-2017 season and hasn’t returned to be the same player. He is only 24, so there is still potential for him to regain top six form. Nutuivaara is a decent option for a bottom pair. If the Sabres could acquire these two in a deal, they’d be looking at a possible top six option and a bottom pair defenseman that would allow the team to not have Marco Scandella in their lineup. Buffalo would be improving two parts of their roster, while Columbus would be getting the top four defenseman that they need.

If Columbus was looking to trade out of their prospect pool instead of using NHL roster players, the conversation with Buffalo would begin and stop with center Alexander Texier. After him, Columbus’ prospect pool doesn’t have a talent that would interest Buffalo in this type of trade.

1. Winnipeg Jets

The Winnipeg Jets currently have some cap space, but they will be very close to the cap once they get top players like Patrik Laine and Kyle Connor signed. After doing that, they will still have a glaring need on defense. After Joshua Morrissey and Dustin Byfuglien, there are question marks on defense. Newly acquired Neal Pionk could play a top four role, but ideally he would be best fit on the bottom pair. Prospect Sami Niku projects as a top four defenseman, but putting him there at the start of this season may be asking a bit much of him at this point in his development.

If those two were on the second pair, that would mean deploying a bottom pair that consists of two of Nathan Beaulieu, Tucker Poolman, and Dmitry Kulikov. Kulikov should not see NHL minutes, and the other two are bottom pair at best guys who could easily be scratched. There is a clear need for another top four defenseman and, in a perfect world, two more top four defenseman. The Jets match up fairly well with the Sabres. They have forward depth and need to balance out their roster.

The odd man out in their forward group seems to be Nikolaj Ehlers, as he has been in trade rumors for the past year. In order to acquire him the Sabres may need to send Ristolainen and a player like Conor Sheary (retained salary) to Winnipeg. Buffalo would be acquiring a top six forward, while Winnipeg would be getting a top four defenseman and a depth scorer. If Ehlers is not an option, two other forwards stand out: Jack Roslovic or Mason Appleton.

While these two would be great gets for Buffalo, it wouldn’t clear salary for Winnipeg, so they most likely would need to have a possible deal include a bigger contract to make the financials work. Buffalo would most likely be interested in a Roslovic and Lowry/Copp package. While that would further jam up their forward situation, the Sabres would then be able to deal Sheary or even flip Lowry/Copp. If Winnipeg wanted Buffalo to take a player like Mathieu Perreault, the rest of the trade package would need to be greater than Roslovic. It seems that Ehlers would truly make the most sense, but a deal could be found around a different package of players.

Conclusion

We ultimately think a trade of Ristolainen and Conor Sheary (some salary retained on Sheary) for Nikolaj Ehlers makes the most sense for both parties. If we were handicapping where Ristolainen starts the season, we would give Winnipeg around a 35%, Columbus 20%, Tampa Bay 15%, Buffalo 10%, Edmonton 10%, Anaheim 5%, and the field as 5%. We also need to emphasize, the Sabres’ biggest need in a trade might be a left-handed defenseman. There are two questions the team needs to answer. First, can they sign Jake Gardiner, who would be a dynamite addition? Second, can they count on Lawrence Pilut? Although his underlying metrics were strong in a limited sample with Buffalo, there is an injury question as well as a question if his limited sample in Buffalo is sustainable. We aren’t as ready to anoint him as many others and think the Sabres would be wise to look for a more known option. Additionally, the team would still be an injury away from Marco Scandella or Matt Hunwick playing. That cannot happen.

Our current lineup prediction has Jimmy Vesey playing on the first-line. That is definitely not ideal. However, Jack Eichel may be able to drive offense enough to overcome that deficiency. It also has Marcus Johansson as the second-line center. If the team can acquire a better option at center, they should explore it. While the package of Ristolainen and Sheary (or Evan Rodrigues) would work for a top line winger, it likely doesn’t net more than a short-term solution at the center position. If they are looking to acquire a younger, long-term solution at the center position, Casey Mittelstadt probably has to be packaged with Ristolainen. This would make sense from an asset management standpoint as Mittelstadt’s future role would suddenly be filled. However, this seems unlikely to happen. The team gets one shot at moving Ristolainen and they need to ensure they choose the correct return. We have thoroughly been through all the scenarios in our previous article, as well as this one. We now sit and wait to see when the dominoes start to fall. 

Image courtesy of Bill Wippert / Getty Images

James Finch is an analyst at AFP Analytics. James graduated from St. John Fisher College in 2019 with a bachelor’s degree in Sport Management with a minor in Economics. His background with sports and economics have brought about an interest in gaining experience and finding his niche within the sport analytics field.

KYLE STICH is the Director of AFP Analytics.  In addition, Mr. Stich is a tax specialist and Director of Operations at AFP Consulting LLC, whose clientele include professional athletes performing services on three separate continents. Mr. Stich earned his Master of Science in Sport Management with a Concentration in Sport Analytics from Columbia University in 2017. He earned his undergraduate degrees in Accounting and Sport Management from St. John Fisher College in 2015, where he has served as an adjunct professor teaching Sport Finance and Baseball Analytics.

NHL 31 in 31 Season Review: Colorado Avalanche

The Colorado Avalanche were able to do the impossible this past season. The team was able to make the jump from being the worst team in the league to making the playoffs. Ultimately Nashville was the superior team but even making the playoffs was a huge victory for the Avs. The team has a young core and should be a team to watch for many years to come.

Bright Spots

The Avalanche have a group of young forwards that some people would consider the best group of young talent in the entire league. First and foremost, Nathan Mackinnon has developed into one of the best players in hockey. His speed and skill make him a tremendous weapon for Colorado. He had 97 points, 64 came at even strength and his advanced statistics were great as well. The team had a Corsi% of 47.59% but Mackinnon had an individual Coris% of 50.9%. The fact that he is an offensive minded player yet his Corsi is well above the team average shows that he is a well-rounded talent. A deeper dive into his analytics illustrates just how special Mackinnon is. He makes 10.6 plays per 20 minutes that generate scoring chances, he makes 24 possession driving plays per 20 minutes and controls 7.56 entries into the offensive zone. In short, the Avalanche offense revolves around Mackinnon and he is more than capable of handling the load thanks to his elite skating and vision.

While Mackinnon may get most of the spotlight there are other young forwards in Colorado who are on a great path of development. Miko Rantanen and JT Compher are ages 21 and 23 and figure to be a part of the Avs long term plans. Let’s start with Rantanen. He was a powerplay specialist who was more than a point per game player. He had 84 points, 35 of which occurred while the Avalanche had the man advantage. When looking at his statistics there is not necessarily one number that jumps out as elite, instead he is above average in almost everything he does. His true shooting percentage of 7.7% was relatively high but it is a testament to his offensive zone play. He is a skilled beneficiary of the talent around him and there is nothing in his numbers that suggest he will slow down anytime soon. JT Compher is the prototype bottom six forward in today’s game. He has scoring touch, scoring 13 goals. In fact, his expected goals for per 20 was .26 but his actual was only .14, so look for Compher to possibly score 20 in 2019.

We cannot write about the Avalanche without mentioning their veteran captain Gabriel Landeskog. Yes, he is only 25 years old but in Colorado he is considered a veteran and a leader. He frequently played against top competition and is one of the best two-way players in the conference. Landeskog recovers 9 loose pucks in his own end per 20 minutes and thanks to his elite vision and passing he can clear the zone, surely some of those plays contribute to his 19.4 possession driving plays per 20 minutes. He is also already signed to a long-term deal with a reasonable cap hit of $5.6M.

On the defensive end the Avalanche have two defensemen in which the team knows what they can expect. Tyson Barrie and Erik Johnson are veteran options on the blueline and they performed right around their expectations. Samuel Girard was acquired from Nashville in the Matt Duchene trade. Nashville has a surplus of defenseman, so Girard was expendable, but he is only 20 years old and was the definite bright spot on defense for the Avs. He is a tremendous skater who can make possession driving plays thanks to his speed and agility. While his Corsi% is only 46.9% it would be unfair to bury the 20-year-old for that. He will have to take his lumps like any young player, but his offensive mindedness and skating ability make him the perfect fit for the modern-day NHL and the Avalanche organization must be excited about the trade and the talent they acquired in Girard.

Major Disappointments

It is difficult to come up with disappointments for a team that went from one of the worst teams in the history of hockey to a playoff team, so I will use this section to explain why a team like Nashville is stillc ahead of the Avs. First and foremost, experience had to play a role, the playoff exposure will only help the team moving forward.

If there was one thing to complain about it would be the overall defensive structure of the team. While there might not be one specific player or contract to complain about defensively the Avalanche did allow too many high danger chances and did not possess the puck often enough. Their team Corsi ranked 26^th in the league, just ahead of a handful of non-playoff teams like the Canucks, Islanders and Senators. It is no secret the team generated chances off the rush, but the team could have been over reliant on that which led to a lack of possession time and, in turn, the allowance of many high danger chances. As the young forwards age and develop they could become more responsible in their own end and the team Corsi% could improve.

Semyon Varlamov is a fine goaltender, perhaps he makes a little too much money, but the player is never at fault for that. Unfortunately, he has had a tough time staying healthy in Colorado. He only started 47 games this past season. When he played he was more than serviceable, registering a 92.9% save percentage and an 83.1% inner slot save percentage. He was also the teams’ best penalty killer, his 90.8% save percentage while shorthanded ranks among the best in the league. It would be unfair to Varlamov to call his season a disappointment but the Avs must be hopeful he will stay healthy in 2019.

Offseason Plans

It is difficult to say what the Avalanche should do this offseason. Traditionally the team does not spend to the cap and they will enter the offseason with just more than $23M in cap space. Blake Comeau is the biggest name that will be a UFA up front. He made $2.4M in 2017 and could probably be brought back at a comparable price if the team chooses to do so. Nial Yakupov and Gabriel Bourque are the other two forwards that the team will have to decide on resigning. The team is also set on the back end, Patrick Nemeth and Duncan Siemens are the only two players who will be RFA’s. The defense is the weaker part of this team, so it will be interesting to see what the Avalanche decide to do. Signing a backup goaltender will also be a priority but there are always plenty of available goalies on the market.

The team is probably one forward away from being able to make a Seth Jones for Ryan Johansson type deal, especially after they traded Matt Duchene. Samuel Girard was a great acquisition, but the team could use a 24-26-year-old top 4 defenseman. Of course, those types of players do not typically come available in free agency, so it will be a challenge to find one. The team could hope that Girard and a player like Zadorov develop into two players that could be slotted in the top four.

Moving forward Girard and Rantanen will be players that will demand large contracts and the Avalanche will have the space to pay. However, the Avs may become a cap team because they have other players like JT Compher and Tyson Jost who could command money as well. Also, if the team continues to contend and does not spend to the cap the front office could start to feel the pressure to spend and use as much of the cap as possible. Either way, the Avalanche figure to be an exciting team to watch moving forward.

Please be sure to check in again tomorrow as we take an in-depth look at the New Jersey Devils. If you enjoyed this review, please follow us on Twitter, @afpanalytics, and share it with your friends!

Stats have been pulled from NaturalStatTrick.com and Corsica.hockey. Salary info from Capfriendly.com

JUSTIN WHITE is an intern AFP Analytics. Justin is a graduate of St. John Fisher College where he earned his degree in Sport Management and Statistics. He has worked with the Rochester Americans and members of their coaching staff on various analytics and statistics based projects.

NHL 31 in 31 Season Reviews: Dallas Stars

The Dallas Stars headed into the season with playoff aspirations but ultimately came up short in 2018. The team spent to the cap and played an exciting brand of hockey and even had a Corsi% better than 50% but the goaltending and play in their own end let them down. The team did spend to the cap which makes them an interesting team to look at moving forward.

Bright Spots

Trading for Tyler Seguin was one of the smartest moves in recent memory. Why the Bruins would trade a potential superstar at such a young age is beyond me, but Seguin has rounded into elite form in Dallas. He had 78 points in 82 games and 51 of those points came at even strength. Seguin has a reputation as a high end offensive talent, but people do not realize that he is responsible in his own zone as well. He has a quick stick and can block passes and deny entries into the offensive zone at a rate that is comparable to some of the best defensive forwards in the league. His possession numbers in all three zones is very good and it does not come as a surprise that his offensive zone numbers are phenomenal. The best players can control the puck when entering the zone. Seguin can take it to the next level, 65.1% of his controlled entries have a successful play after. He had a true shooting percentage of 6.3% which is quite good considering the volume of shots he is taking. He frequently can get into high scoring areas and create chances for the Stars.

Jamie Benn and Alexander Radulov are two older forwards who were able to contribute as well. Benn has been a Star for a long time and Radulov was brought in this past offseason to help bolster to attack. Benn has a $9.5M dollar cap hit but produced 80 points and had a Corsi% of 52.2%. Radulov had a 53% Corsi and scored 27 goals, meeting the lofty expectations the team had when they signed him. His expected goals for was .3 but his actual was .26. This means that Radulov missed some opportunities or the goaltenders made great saves against him more often than they did against other shooters. The law of averages suggests that next season if he stays healthy he will score more than 27 goals. Radulov and Benn are locked up to long term deals and will be important forwards for Dallas as they look to get back into the playoff picture.

The defensive play was not where it needed to be, but John Klingberg was not to blame. Klingberg is one of the best offensive minded defenseman in the league and he is responsible in the defensive end. He plays on both the powerplay and penalty kill and registered 8 goals and 59 assists. His Corsi% was 54.1% against some of the toughest competition with a 35% offensive zone start percentage. He is arguably the best powerplay quarterback in all of hockey. He ranks near the top of the league in many point producing categories when the team has the man advantage. He can control the entry into the zone (1.44/20), pass to the slot (1.15/20) and attempt shots from the inner slot (2.75/20). In simplest terms, Klingberg runs the powerplay and forwards like Seguin and Benn are the beneficiaries of his solid play at the point.

Major Disappointments

The biggest disappointment in Dallas was the entire goaltending situation. The Stars had 3 goaltenders count against their cap this year, but only two of them were on the roster. Ben Bishop has a $4.9M dollar cap hit, Kari Lehtonen has a $5.9 dollar hit and Antti Niemi was bought out and has a $1.5M dollar hit. That equates to $12.3M. The smartest teams might spend $8M on goalies so the Stars spending so much more prevents the team from signing a $4M dollar defenseman. When you see that Klingberg has a cap hit of $4.25M you quickly realize that the team is missing out on a potential impact player. Bishop played 53 games and had a .916 save percentage and a 2.49 goals against average. His 5v5 expected goals per 60 was 2.26 and his actual was 2.19. This means that Bishop played well this season and the Stars should move forward with him in net next season, assuming he is able to stay healthy which may be a difficult assumption to make. Lehtonen played to a similar level but the contract situation is a disaster which is why the goaltending situation is listed as a huge disappointment.

Antoine Roussel made a name for himself in the playoffs, but he did not live up to those high expectations this year. He appeared in 73 games but only registered 17 points. The low point production is not that surprising as he developed a reputation as a pest and a defensive minded forward. He was not able to make enough possession driving plays and he did not create nearly as many turnovers as the Stars expected. He only made 6.26 defensive plays per 20 minutes and was only able to block 3.89 passes per 20 minutes. Those numbers are not nearly enough for a player who is in the lineup to play well on defense and create turnovers.

The biggest disappointment on defense was Marc Methot. Methot was signed to a long-term deal at age 32 and only appeared in 36 games. It is tough to knock a player for getting injured but even when he was in the lineup he did not contribute nearly enough. He has the reputation of being defensive minded, so his 3 points are not a big issue. However, his 47.8% Corsi is cause for concern because it is well below the team average. He was a physical presence but when he recovered the pucks his pass success rates were poor, falling below 60% success. The Stars will need Methot to stay healthy and improve his play next season or they will be on the hook with a bad contract.

Offseason Plans

The Stars will head into the offseason with about $17.5M in cap space. Antoine Roussel and other bottom six forwards are pending free agents, so the team will not have to break the bank to resign those players if they choose to do so. John Klingberg is signed to a team friendly deal for the long term, but three other defensemen are pending free agents. Luckily, only one of the players had a 2017 cap hit of more than $1M but that player is the 35-year-old Dan Hamhuis who the team could let walk due to his old age. The team will have to dive into the free agent pool to sign defense and depth forwards.

Assuming the team does fill those needs the big question emerges, what does the team do with Tyler Seguin? He figures to get a deal comparable to the $9.5M that Benn is making. He is under contract for next season but if I were running the Stars I would look to lock up Seguin as soon as possible. A player of his age and skill level should never see free agency and the Stars have the space to sign Seguin now and having his contract on the books will make it much easier to negotiate with free agents after the upcoming season. Signing Seguin gives the Stars a solid core to move forward with for years to come.

The team will need to sign a backup goaltender as well because Kari Lehtonen and his large contract is coming off the books. The management must be excited by this because this means the team will save millions of dollars. Spending $5M on a backup goalie in this day and age is crazy and saving that money should help the Stars right away.

The Western Conference is strong, and the Stars play in a good division, but they look like a team who should be able to compete for a playoff spot year in and year out. They have offensive talent and good possession numbers. More cap flexibility should allow the team to bolster up their back end and improve their team heading into the 2018-2019 season.

Please be sure to check in again tomorrow as we take an in-depth look at the St. Louis Blues. If you enjoyed this review, please follow us on Twitter, @afpanalytics, and share it with your friends!

Stats have been pulled from NaturalStatTrick.com and Corsica.hockey. Salary info from Capfriendly.com

JUSTIN WHITE is an intern AFP Analytics. Justin is a graduate of St. John Fisher College where he earned his degree in Sport Management and Statistics. He has worked with the Rochester Americans and members of their coaching staff on various analytics and statistics based projects.

NHL 31 in 31 Season Review: Edmonton Oilers

For the next 31 days, AFP Analytics is going to take a critical look back at how the season played out for all 31 NHL teams, starting with the last place team (Buffalo Sabres) and ending with the Stanley Cup Champions. In addition to a season recap, we will look at some major decisions the team will be facing this offseason.

Edmonton Oilers

The Oilers came into the season with Stanley Cup aspirations. Whether the expectations were fair or not, the team fell way short, failing to qualify for the playoffs. At the halfway point in the season some felt the Oilers could be in the running for yet another number one overall pick. The team was able to dig its way out of the basement but was not close to securing a playoff spot. Any season that Connor McDavid is not playing in the playoffs should be considered a lost season. The Oilers players and management are equally at fault for this disaster of a season.

Bright Spots

There is no sense in wasting any time, when discussing bright spots, we can go directly to Connor McDavid. He is the most exciting player in the league and the fact that Patrick Maroon and Milan Lucic spent time as his best winger this season is a complete disservice to the skilled center. McDavid had 71 even strength points this season, 12 better than Nikita Kucherov who had 59. The Oilers were an above 50% Corsi team and as expected McDavid was one of the team’s best possession players, with an individual corsi percentage of 52.41%. There is not much I can say about McDavid that has not already been said. His speed and skill make him one of the best talents in the league and the Oilers cannot allow another season of his to go to waste by not making the playoffs.

Darnell Nurse was a highly touted prospect when he was selected 7^th overall in 2013. It may have taken him a little bit longer than expected but he is developing quite nicely into an impact defenseman. Nurse’s corsi was 51.1%, one of the best on the team. He has improved each year since his debut and has become an even better puck mover as well. In 2016 he produced .4 assists per 60, in 2017 that number increased to .7. Nurse has also shown he can play physical and the Oilers are hopeful he can continue to develop into a steady option in the team’s top 4.

Major Disappointments

Not to beat a dead horse but the Oilers management team must be the first disappointment mentioned. I know it has been two years since the dust has settled on the Taylor Hall for Adam Larsson trade, but it is impossible not to mention. Hall is one of the favorites to win MVP and Larsson will have his own paragraph in this section coming up. Hall is the player the Oilers are hoping players like Ryan Strome and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins would become. Why the Oilers would trade Hall for a middling defenseman is beyond comprehension. Of course, Hall’s performance this season makes the trade look worse but for a team who is struggling to find a partner to play with McDavid, trading Hall looks like an inexcusable offense.

Another move the Oilers made that did not fetch the proper return was the Patrick Maroon trade. Maroon was playing relatively well and was one of the team’s most important players. The idea of bad teams moving contracts to acquire picks and prospects is a good idea. However, it does feel like the Oilers could have acquired more than a 2019 3^rd round pick and a prospect who was selected in the 6^th round. Sure, Maroon is a pending UFA, but the market was relatively dry and a player with his numbers at the deadline could have fetched a greater return.

Milan Lucic must be mentioned as another disappointment. However, I don’t know what is more disappointing, his level of play or his contract. Lucic is signed to a 7 year $42M dollar contract with a no-move clause until the 2021 season. This means Lucic cannot be moved until he is 33 years old and if he does not right the ship there will be no teams interested by the time he is able to be moved. Lucic appeared in all 82 games this past season and only registered 34 points. He did have above average possession numbers, but 34 points is not enough for a player signed to such a long-term, high AAV contract.

Another player in Edmonton who has failed to live up to expectations is Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. The former number one overall selection has not lived up to his 2014 and 2015 seasons where he scored 56 points. He showed signs of turning the corner this season but suffered a rib injury that only allowed him to play in 62 games this past season. He did score 48 points in those 62 games, so Oilers brass could be encouraged by his season and will need to hope he continues to improve in 2019.

The Oilers were bitten by the injury bug, but some key players were able to stay healthy and just failed to perform. Adam Larsson appeared in 63 games in 2018 and only registered 13 points. Of course, points may not be the best measure of a defenseman’s performance so let’s look at some possession numbers. Larsson had the 5^th best Corsi for percentage among Oilers defensemen. When you consider the fact that Larsson was a 4^th overall pick and was TRADED FOR TAYLOR HALL, his performance is not nearly where it needs to be. Larsson is locked up on a contract with a $4.16M dollar cap hit for the next three years. The cap hit is more than reasonable if Larsson can play up to the level the Oilers were hoping he would, but there have not been enough signs that he is going to be able to do so.

Offseason Plans

The Oilers will only have $10M in projected cap space heading into the offseason. Darnell Nurse is a RFA and young players like Anton Slepyshev, Drake Caggiula, Matthew Benning and Ryan Strome are all up for new contracts as well. In simple terms, the Oilers will have a very similar team in 2019. Whether that is a good or a bad thing remains up for debate. Goaltender Cam Talbot figures to be back between the pipes and the core of young players will likely remain intact.

The question Oilers management might be asking itself is, was signing Leon Draisaitl to his monster extension the smart move? If teams out there are willing to trade for him should we consider the offer? Draisaitl is an above average NHL player and dominated the 2016 playoffs but the critics could ask how much of his production is due to Connor McDavid. Realistically I don’t think the Oilers should consider moving him. The team is not going to get any younger and there is still hope for a player like Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. Talents like Draisaitl are hard to come by and the Oilers do not have a good track record of trading young, highly skilled, forwards.

The Oilers will head into 2019 hopeful their group of young players can get even better and the team returns to its 2017 luck, I mean form. Any team with Connor McDavid will have a chance to be successful so it will be up to management to push the right buttons. Unfortunately, it remains to be seen if management can push those buttons.

Please be sure to check in again tomorrow as we take an in-depth look at the New York Islanders. If you enjoyed this review, please follow us on Twitter, @afpanalytics, and share it with your friends!

Stats have been pulled from NaturalStatTrick.com and Corsica.hockey. Salary info from Capfriendly.com

JUSTIN WHITE is an intern AFP Analytics. Justin is a graduate of St. John Fisher College where he earned his degree in Sport Management and Statistics. He has worked with the Rochester Americans and members of their coaching staff on various analytics and statistics based projects.

 

NHL 31 in 31 Season Review: Detroit Red Wings

The Red Wings appear to be entering a bit of a down time after one of the most impressive playoff streaks in the history of the sport. The Wings came into this season without playoff expectations and the team performed right on par with what experts and fans expected before the season started. Questionable decision making may have set the franchise back a few years and this puzzle does not look like it will have a quick fix.

Bright Spots

The Red Wings have three young players that could be the core of their team moving forward. Dylan Larkin, Anthony Mantha and Andreas Athanasiou are all younger than 24 and figure to be key producers to the team moving forward.

Dylan Larkin entered the NHL in 2015-2016 straight from University of Michigan and made an immediate impact. After a minor sophomore slump, he was able to score 61 points this past season and developed into a more well rounded offensive player. Larkin’s CorsiFor% was exactly 50% which is impressive for a player who has the reputation as offensively minded. His expected goals for was .08 goals/20min below his expected total. With a few more fortunate bounces it is reasonable to expect Larkin to increase his goal total next year.

Andreas Athanasiou is the second of the three young players who saw significant minutes for Detroit this season. He was able to produce 33 points, 33 of which were at even strength. I would expect him to see more powerplay time in the coming years and his point total should increase by 10-15 points per season. He has shown flashes of excellence when controlling the puck and is was able to carry the puck into the offensive zone 5.6 times per 20 minutes of ice time. He is a player who excels on the rush, so his skillset looks like it should be a good fit for the modern game.

Lastly, Anthony Mantha deserves a mention in the bright spots section. He was arguably the biggest bright spot in Detroit this year. After producing 36 points in 60 games in 2016-17 he played 80 games in 17-18 and totaled 48 points. He was a key powerplay contributor but did mange to score 35 even strength points. He was an elite powerplay scorer, using his heavy frame to get to the front of the net he had a True Shooting Percentage of 20.8%. Mantha figures to be a net-front presence in Detroit for years to come.

Dissapointments

Trading Thomas Tatar was a good start for Detroit but there were other players the Red Wings could have shipped out of town at the trade deadline. Justin Abdelkader produced 34 points while counting for $4.3M dollars against the salary cap. The point production does not match the cost, but more importantly Abdelkader is already 31 years of age and the new emphasis on speed makes him a player who many teams would no longer consider a top six forward.

Mike Green had a fine season on the back end, but he figures to leave the team in free agency this July. Niklas Kronwall will not be going anywhere anytime soon. The 37-year-old carries a $4.8M dollar cap hit that figures to take him off the radar for any potential trade. It may seem unfair to call Kronwall a disappointment because of his age, so we can place the blame on the front office for locking up the aging defenseman for so long. He still was reliable to clear the zone when he got the puck, but the younger faster forwards gave him a tough time in his own end. He was not able to block many passes or accumulate many successful stick checks per game. The issue is not so much his performance as much as it is his age and contract status.

Offseason Plan

The Red Wings had an uneventful season. The team performed right on par with their expectations, their top players produced to the level fans can expect and the rest of the team… well they played 82 hockey games. The team only had two players score more than 20 goals and there are plenty of concerns for the team heading into the offseason.

Remember the 3 bright spots from above? Well all three of those players are entering RFA status and the team has roughly $18M in cap space heading into free agency. The team will likely lose Mike Green so there is a top 4 defenseman and 3 young forwards the team will need to sign with relatively limited funds. Players such as Henrik Zetterberg (age 37, $6M), Frans Nielsen (age 34, $5.25M), Johnathan Ericsson (age 34, $4.25M), Trevor Daley (age 34, $3.17M) combined with Kronwall and Abdelkader are all aging and have handcuffed management. In the perfect world the Red Wings would be able to move most, if not all, of these players to open cap space and roster spots for younger talent. Unfortunately for the Red Wings it takes two teams to make a deal and I do not see other teams forming a line to trade for aging players with large cap hits.

This means the Red Wings cannot be throwing money around in free agency like they may have been willing to do in the past. Some of the contracts mention above expire after the 18-19 season and the team will have much more cap flexibility next summer. Focusing on resigning their own talent should be the priority this offseason.

The Red Wings will have a decision to make this offseason. Assuming they are only willing to sign one player to a long term deal they will have to decide between Larkin and Mantha. From an age standpoint alone, lets assume it is going to be Dylan Larkin. Larkin is only 21 years old and has shown he can produce at the NHL level. Assuming the Wings choose to go straight to the long term deal we can assume it would look something like 6-8 years with a cap hit between $6 and $7M. This would be a fair deal for both sides and would bring the available cap space down to $12M. We are assuming if the Wings chose Mantha instead of Larkin he would receive a similar deal.

This leaves two deals to be signed, assuming the two are shorter term with smaller AAVs (let’s say 3.5 each) the Wings are looking at $5M of cap space left. In other words, the team is not in good standing financially. The Wings will have the same team returning next year with $5M of cap space to replace green and resign a handful of other potential free agents. Tyler Bertuzzi is an interesting prospect who has been plagued by injuries but has also reached RFA status. The team would have to pony up some of the $5M if they want to keep them in the fold.

Even if the Red Wings do what is suggested and sign their own talent and steer clear of signing other free agents they will have tough decisions to make. With all due respect to the young core is it reasonable to expect a core of Larkin, Mantha and Athanasiou to compete for a Stanley Cup. I do not think that is possible, they are lacking a true number one center.

However, the best way to acquire a star center is through the draft and the Wings are loaded with picks. This year the team has 7 picks in the first 3 rounds. Their own pick is sixth and they have ammunition to either move up or to stockpile picks for the coming years. I would recommend the Wings try to add as many first round picks as possible in 2019 and perhaps even 2020. Their roster now is made up of fine complementary players, but they will still need a true star if they hope to return to the glory days.

Please be sure to check in again tomorrow as we take an in-depth look at the Vancouver Canucks. If you enjoyed this review, please follow us on Twitter, @afpanalytics, and share it with your friends!

Stats have been pulled from NaturalStatTrick.com and Corsica.hockey. Salary info from Capfriendly.com

JUSTIN WHITE is an intern AFP Analytics. Justin is a graduate of St. John Fisher College where he earned his degree in Sport Management and Statistics. He has worked with the Rochester Americans and members of their coaching staff on various analytics and statistics based projects.

NHL 31 in 31 Season Review: Arizona Coyotes

The Arizona Coyotes started the 2017-2018 season with higher expectations than previous seasons, but most fans and experts were realistic about just how well the team would perform. It was not a secret that the Coyotes were in the middle of a youth movement, but some of the offseason moves suggested the team was gearing up to enter more of a win now mode. Trading for players like Derek Stepan and Antti Raanta added veteran leadership to a team full of exciting young talent. Of course, this proved to be wrong as the Coyotes again finished near the bottom of the league.

It is no secret that the Coyotes have bought into the analytics movement. John Chayka spoke at the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference this past February about how the team has dove into the analytics pool, both on and off the ice. He spoke about a willingness to acquire players who are always looking to get better and made sure to mention his rookie phenom, Clayton Keller. The use of statistics and analytics is something worth monitoring in Arizona.

Season Bright Spots

It would be impossible to write about the bright spots of the Coyotes without first mentioning Clayton Keller. If not for Mathew Barzal, Keller would have been the favorite to win the rookie of the year. Keller has the speed and skill to succeed at the NHL level for a long time, so it does not come as a surprise that he succeeded on the power play. 20 of Keller’s 65 points came while the Coyotes had the man advantage. For comparisons sake, Jack Eichel produced 20 of his 64 points while on the power play. Of course, Eichel only appeared in 67 games while Keller played all 82, but the point here is that Keller was a very productive player during 5v5 play as well. Keller producing 44 even strength points is a great sign and he is the definite shining star of the organization.

Keller was not the only young player who got ample ice time in Arizona this past season. Players like Brendan Perlini (22), Max Domi (23), Jakob Chychrun (20) and even Dylan Strome (21) were able to play significant minutes for the Coyotes this season. When evaluating players so young the traditional numbers may not be the best measure. For example, Chychrun only had 14 points. However, he showed flashes of being a top end defenseman and his Corsi% of 47.6% was right in line with the rest of his team. While that number is not on par with some of the better teams in the NHL there is something to be said that the players under the age of 24 are not the players that are holding the team back.

We will touch on Domi later, but Dylan Strome has been a topic of conversation as well. Drafted 3^rd after Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel, Strome has not come close to producing at the level of his counterparts. With that being said, his expectations should never have been that high in the first place. Strome was never touted as a generation talent and may need more time to develop, which is totally normal for a 3^rd overall pick. An in depth look at Strome’s brief NHL stint does illuminate some bright spots. Strome was a great playmaker, his pass to the slot success rate was 52.8%, one of the best in the league. The doubters will question the sample size, but the Coyotes organization would likely view this as a promising sign. Look for Strome to make more of an impact in Arizona next year.

A bright spot section about the Coyotes would not be complete without the inclusion of star defenseman Oliver Ekman-Larsson. He has played on some weak teams but has continued to produce at a high level. OEL is a point producing power play quarterback but is also a strong defender. He was frequently able to intercept or block passes (7.2/20min) and turn them into successful offensive zone entries (1.47/20min). His current cap hit is $5.5M which seems like a bargain for his contributions. OEL will be a UFA in 2019 which will be discussed later in this piece.

Major Disappointments

Antti Raanta performed well enough to earn himself a 3 year, $12.75M contract with the Coyotes. However, that number could have been even higher if he was able to stay healthy. His health is the reason he finds himself on the disappointment list. Raanta posted a 21-17-6 record in his 47 appearances for the Coyotes this past season. His Save% of .930 is among the best in the league, but he was only able to appear in 47 games and was listed on the injury report five separate times throughout the season. Regardless of your opinion on goalie contracts, (I believe that they are WAY too high) it is difficult to argue that Raanta did not perform well, and the Coyotes record would have been considerably better if he was able to appear in more games.

Moving out of the net, some of the biggest issues the Coyotes had relate to the new age of hockey statistics and measures. Possession and zone entries are becoming more and more prominent, and the Coyotes are among the worst in the league at successfully entering the offensive zone. The Coyotes only had 785 controlled entries into the offensive zone with a shot on net following the zone entry. This results in only 9.57 shots on net per game. This means that most of their chances are coming off recovered dump ins or defensive turnovers. The best teams can score and produce on the rush. The game is shifting toward speed and skill and 9.57 shots off controlled entries is not nearly enough. The Columbus Blue Jackets were near the top of the league and they generated 993 shots off controlled entries. The Coyotes will have to hope their youth can help change this before it becomes a common trend.

Young talent can also disappoint because of the high potential that may have been shown in previous seasons. After registering 52 points in his rookie year, Max Domi has failed to reach the 50-point plateau in each of the past two seasons. Domi is an upcoming RFA and the Coyotes will have a difficult decision to make with Domi this offseason. His production dropped again this past year and with so many other young players in the pipeline Domi may lose his spot as one of the team’s top young players. His name has been floated in trade rumors and the Coyotes have shown they are willing to move young talent after trading Anthony Duclair.

The last two disappointments go hand in hand. The Coyotes have forward depth but a look at their prospects shows that the team could use more defenseman in their prospect pool. Pierre-Olivier Joseph is a nice prospect, but he is only 18 years old and is still several years away from the NHL. Players like Kyle Wood and Kyle Capobiaco had solid AHL seasons but do not necessarily project out as top NHL defenseman.

The Coyotes had the 3^rd best odds to win the NHL lottery but they were jumped by the Hurricanes and Canadiens in the draft lottery. The Senators have the rights to the fourth pick which means the Coyotes fell to 5^th and will miss out on some elite level prospects. No team wants to fall in the lottery and the Coyotes must feel a little snake bit, but the opportunity to select Quinn Hughes could excite the front office and fanbase.

Offseason Plans

The Coyotes currently have 49 of their 50 allotted contracts in use and still have more than $21M in available cap space. Assistant Captain Brad Richardson is a UFA, at age 33 it is unclear where he fits in the Coyotes vision for the future. Defenseman Luke Schenn and Kevin Connauton, both age 28, are also UFAs and will be looking to increase their $1.25M and $1M dollar contracts. The team will have to decide how much they are willing to pay to keep veteran leadership without taking too much ice time from some of their young players.

The two biggest decisions will come with two of the most important players, Max Domi and Oliver Ekman-Larsson. Domi is a restricted free agent and his decline in production suggests a bridge deal may be the smartest option for the Coyotes front office. A two or three-year deal at a reasonable cap hit seems like the smartest option, especially when the other option is committing for 5 years or more. Domi could develop into a nice player but for a team with many other young players committing long term and big money to a player who has declined since his rookie year is not the best option.

The Coyotes should be monitoring the Erik Karlsson situation very closely because they could have a comparable situation on their hands with OEL. Ekman-Larsson may not be on Karlsson’s level, but he certainly is a top pair defenseman and teams might be willing to pay a premium if they are confident enough in their ability to ink him to a long-term deal. He is under contract in Arizona for the 2019 season, but the trade rumors will continue to swirl until he is moved, or he signs in Arizona long term. Ekman-Larsson has been on some losing teams in Arizona and he has said that the money alone will not determine where he chooses to play when he does become a free agent. Despite the claims that he wants to stay in Arizona and John Chayka’s apparent desire to resign the defenseman, the Coyotes should play hard ball make their stance to OEL very clear. If he is not 100% committed to resigning in Arizona by the time the trade deadline rolls around the Coyotes should move him to the highest bidder. Losing a player like Ekman-Larsson would be a significant blow to the team but losing him for nothing in free agency could be the type of move that costs people their jobs.

In conclusion, the Coyotes should improve in 2019 because of their young talent and a potentially healthy Raanta between the pipes, but it might not be smooth sailing just yet. The players may need another year to develop and the Ekman-Larsson situation has the potential to be a dark cloud hovering over the team for the entire offseason and beyond. Look for Arizona to improve next season but I would not expect to see the team in the postseason quite yet.

Please be sure to check in again tomorrow as we take an in-depth look at the Montreal Canadiens. If you enjoyed this review, please follow us on Twitter, @afpanalytics, and share it with your friends!

Stats have been pulled from NaturalStatTrick.com and Corsica.hockey. Salary info from Capfriendly.com

JUSTIN WHITE is an intern AFP Analytics. Justin is a graduate of St. John Fisher College where he earned his degree in Sport Management and Statistics. He has worked with the Rochester Americans and members of their coaching staff on various analytics and statistics based projects.