Vegas Golden Knights

Next up in our 31 in 31 season review is a look at the Vegas Golden Knights, the record-setting expansion team that fell three wins short of winning the Stanley Cup. I think it is important to preface everything I write about the team with the fact that I, like many others, expected the team to be bad. They throttled my expectations. I think using their success as a way to insinuate the rest of the league’s GMs are dumb is a little off base. Dale Tallon messed up in a big way. Columbus’s and Minnesota’s decisions weren’t fantastic. The Islanders might have made the worst decision outside of Florida but it isn’t as talked about because they didn’t end up with a player on Vegas’s roster. I will maintain that the Knights could have been even better with a few different draft decisions but, again, who knows?

Season Bright Spots

Well, the entire team was a bright spot this season. No one was expecting them to be as good as they were. Some of their playoff success can be attributed to luck as Marc-Andre Fleury put up insane numbers until the team reached the Stanley Cup Playoffs. The team finished 13^thin the league in Corsi For % at 50.84%. If they perform at that level consistently in seasons to come, they should be a perennial playoff team. The playoffs will always be a different nature as much of it comes down to the “luck” a team is getting, whether that being a high save percentage or high shooting percentage. To prove this has some validity to it, let’s look at the top PDO (shooting % + save %) in the playoffs. This year Vegas was first, Washington 2^nd. Last year, Pittsburgh (winner) was second. The year before they were seventh while their opponent, the San Jose Sharks (runner-up) were first. In the 2014-2015 season, Chicago (winner) was second, 2013-2014 the Rangers (runner-up) were second and the Kings (winner) third. In the lockout-shortened 2013 season, Boston (runner-up) was second and Chicago (winner) was fourth. Basically, I want to make sure it is clear that putting too much stock into Vegas’s playoff run is misguided as a deep playoff run is usually due to luck.

As I said, I could highlight most players here for Vegas but I don’t have the space to do so. I will start by highlighting Vegas’s first line. Reilly Smith has shown evidence of being a quality player in the past and Jonathan Marchessault had been trending in that as well. However, William Karlsson came out of nowhere. The combination of the three was nothing short of magical. A case could be made for the line of Smith-Marchessault-Karlsson being the best in the entire league. They combined to score 53 goals during 5v5 play. To put that into perspective, the Buffalo Sabres, as a team scored 119 goals. That’s 45% of the Sabres’ goals! The line was also effective defensively, improving the team’s possession numbers by 3% when they were on the ice. You can’t do that if you’re pinned in the defensive zone every shift. Marchessault’s and Smith’s contracts will look like bargains for years to come if they maintain this level of play (I’m talking to you Dale Tallon!). Karlsson is a restricted free agent with arbitration rights so he will definitely be due a raise. If the team is smart and seeking to minimize their future cap hit, they should look to lock Karlsson up long-term (more on this idea this summer)!

The other player I have to highlight is Colin Miller. Miller took advantage of favorable offensive zone starts to be the best possession player on the team. Miller had an impressive 55.37% Corsi For % and a 6.45% Relative Corsi For %. Miller also led all defensemen in scoring during all situations with a very respectable 41 points. Miller, like Karlsson, is a restricted free agent with arbitration rights. The team should probably look to get him locked up to a five or six-year deal that would keep him with the team into his early 30s. You don’t want players much past then.

Major Disappointments

I’m not going to really dive into players here because, how can you? Most of the players played well above what was expected of them. Instead, I’m going to spend a little time on how I think the Golden Knights almost won in spite of the moves made by George McPhee. I can’t knock McPhee too much as the team he envisioned at the time of the expansion draft worked much better than anyone thought they would. However, I think there were instances where the team could have gotten more than they did.

Taking any unrestricted players without being enticed to do so seemed like a waste to me. I don’t think Vegas had to draft Derek Engelland in the expansion draft. He would’ve signed with them anyway. They could have added another player from Calgary. Connor Brickley and Chris Thorburn are selections that I think should have yielded Vegas more. They also needed to better manage their assets at the beginning of the season. They took too many NHL players and didn’t have deals arranged to move them, forcing them to keep Vadim Shipachyov in the AHL and eventually frustrating him to go back to Russia. Because they ended up making trades from a position of weakness, they got a lower return than they should have on some players.

The other decisions I have to question McPhee on were his trades leading up to the trade deadline. If you had told me after last season that Ryan Reaves would find himself on two different teams in 2017, I would have thought the Blues waived him, a team claimed him, waived him, and then a second team claimed him. Instead, he was traded twice for fairly substantial returns. For whatever reason, McPhee thought he couldn’t pass up the opportunity to add Reaves and was willing to help facilitate the Derick Brassard trade to the Pittsburgh Penguins. I don’t know why McPhee would’ve wanted to help the Penguins as at the time, Vegas was a clear Stanley Cup contender and so was Pittsburgh. Second, the return they got to make this trade happen and in exchange for losing $2M in salary cap space, next season was terrible.

The other trade to touch on is the acquisition of Tomas Tatar. The team gave up a first, second, and third-round pick for an average player signed to a so-so contract with term. They could’ve added Evander Kane or Rick Nash or Paul Stastny for less! I think McPhee was going for the home run by acquiring Erik Karlsson and panicked at the last minute so they decided to grab Tatar. Had they gotten a better return for what they gave up for Tatar, it could have resulted in them lifting the cup.

Offseason Plans

Dear George McPhee, don’t dole out a massive free-agent contract to anyone not named John Tavares. Your friend, Kyle. Seriously Vegas, you have one of the best future cap situations in the league, don’t go and blow it.

The team’s top priority has to be getting their restricted free agents taken care of. Karlsson, Miller, and Shea Theodore are promising young players who should be part of the team for years to come. Tomas Nosek and William Carrier are also restricted free agents and seemed to be tremendous depth players that should continue in that role next season. They also have to look at their unrestricted free agents. James Neal and David Perron are the only ones they should be considering bringing back. Giving out any contract that lasts longer than three years to either player would be a mistake. Otherwise, I wouldn’t have a problem with them bringing either player back. I guess I shouldn’t gloss over Brandon Pirri, who seems like he should be a good fit with the way Vegas plays but only played two games (scoring three goals), so making any sort of decision would be based off a very limited sample.

Vegas has a gift and a curse. As I’ve been discussing, Vegas has a great long-term cap situation, which is thanks in large part to them not having many long-term contracts on their books. They are currently due to have seven unrestricted free agents next offseason, with many of them being key components to their team. I think the team would be wise to work out extensions with them this offseason so they have certainty going into next season.

I don’t think Vegas should stand pat this offseason. They definitely could use a top pair defenseman and probably could use a quality second-line center to complement Marchessault. Vegas certainly has the ability to swing for the fences in a trade as they have assets and cap space. I’m going to go ahead and say Vegas is likely the best fit for an Erik Karlsson trade (assuming he agrees to a contract extension). They would likely have to offer a package revolving around Shea Theodore and one or two of their top prospects. If only they still had their 2018 first-round pick, I think an easier case could be made. As adamant as I have been about Vegas not adding any bad contracts, I might make an exception and take on Bobby Ryan if Ottawa would lower their ask for Karlsson. Ryan is still a decent player and Vegas would have the ability to work around that contract.

The other player I wonder about for Vegas is Ryan O’Reilly. I think there is still a struggle in evaluating the importance of faceoffs but Vegas was brutal in the playoffs, especially in the Stanley Cup Finals. They lost nearly every big faceoff and O’Reilly would certainly solve that. He also would be a great second-line center to be the more defensive complement to Marchessault. He would also serve as a first-line insurance policy if Marchessault regresses at all (unlikely). I think a trade revolving around Cody Eakin, Alex Tuch, and a top prospect is likely the starting price. I do question if O’Reilly would have the foot speed to play the style of hockey Vegas played this season but otherwise, I think he would check a lot of boxes for the team.

This offseason will be almost as important as the last offseason for the franchise. The team needs to be careful to not overreact to their immediate success. The team likely had a plan in place when they started and they should stick to that plan. Dipping into free agency would allow the team to continue to build their organizational depth and assets but will likely end up with a bad contract on the books. Trading is a way to add higher end talent (Tavares excluded) on better contracts but doing so will deplete their organizational depth. It will take a fine touch to navigate the offseason correctly. McPhee’s decisions have mostly paid off, but at some point, the questionable decision-making is going to catch up to him so my advice: proceed with caution.

If you enjoyed this review, please follow us on Twitter, @afpanalytics, and share it with your friends!

Stats have been pulled from NaturalStatTrick.com and Corsica.hockey. Salary info from Capfriendly.com.

KYLE STICH is the Director of AFP Analytics.  In addition, Mr. Stich is a tax specialist and Director of Operations at AFP Consulting LLC, whose clientele include professional athletes performing services on three separate continents. Mr. Stich earned his Master of Science in Sport Management with a Concentration in Sport Analytics from Columbia University in 2017. He earned his undergraduate degrees in Accounting and Sport Management from St. John Fisher College in 2015, where he has served as an adjunct professor teaching Sport Finance and Baseball Analytics.

For the next 31 days, AFP Analytics is going to take a critical look back at how the season played out for all 31 NHL teams, starting with the last place team (Buffalo Sabres) and ending with the Stanley Cup Champions. In addition to a season recap, we will look at some major decisions the team will be facing this offseason.

Ottawa Senators

Next up in our 31 in 31 season review is a look at the Ottawa Senators. After coming one overtime goal from reaching the Stanley Cup Finals, the Senators fell finished the season second to last. The Senators got off to a blazing start this season even with star Erik Karlsson, easing into the season after his offseason surgery. Then the team traded Kyle Turris in the trade to land them Matt Duchene. The team won their first two games after the trade but then fell off a cliff. As the free fall took place, serious questions arose as to whether the team would move superstar defenseman Erik Karlsson as it became more and more likely that Karlsson would test the free agent market next offseason.

Season Bright Spots

Erik Karlsson was still really, really good despite having what had to have been the toughest season of his career. Karlsson started off still recovering from surgery, faced continued scrutiny regarding his contract, and decided to end his season early when his wife tragically lost the couples’ unborn child. Karlsson still managed to play in 71 games and lead the team in relative Corsi For Percentage (5.67) among the team’s regular skaters. For those unfamiliar with this statistic, the basic premise is that when Karlsson was on the ice, the Senators had a 5.67% better shot share.

Senator fans have been salivating to see what Thomas Chabot could do as his potential seemed sky high. I don’t see how anyone Senator fan cannot be excited about the future of Chabot. Chabot is another smooth skating, puck-moving defenseman that I would love to have on my team any day.   He finished fourth among regular players in relative Corsi For Percentage (3.25%). He’s likely to only get better as he gains NHL experience. Having Chabot and Karlsson on the blueline is something most teams would kill to have. It’s unfortunate Ottawa owner Eugene Melynk does not run one of the teams as he seems more concerned with maintaining an internal salary cap.

Mike Hoffman and Mark Stone both performed well once again relative to what they get paid. Hoffman’s production dropped slightly from last but that would be expected on a team that regressed so severely. He still produced 20 goals, 56 points, and was a positive possession player on the second to worst team while only counting against the cap for just over $5,187,500.

I might be biased when it comes to Mark Stone as he led my fantasy team to a championship but he was another valuable player for the Ottawa Senators. Stone finished tied for the team lead in points with none other than Erik Karlsson and was also third on the team in Relative Corsi For Percentage (4.67%). Stone did all that while being paid $3.5M due to his status as a restricted free agent. Mark Stone is arbitration eligible and likely looking at a fairly significant raise this offseason. His numbers indicate he definitely should be paid much more than this season’s $3.5M. I’m not going to do Stone’s agent’s job for him and make his arbitration argument, at least not in public.

Major Disappointments

I think all of Senator fans’ disappointments have to start with a discussion of their ownership group. Let’s not sugarcoat this, I think a good portion of the Senators’ problems could be solved if their ownership’s top priority was spending whatever it takes to put the best product on the ice every year. The fact that many people thought Erik Karlsson was going to be traded at the deadline and now it seems a near certainty that he will be moved this summer because he wants to be paid his worth is pure lunacy. Under no circumstances should a team be looking to trade arguably the best defenseman in the entire NHL simply because they don’t want to pay him his market value. I might write this differently if the Senators have multiple superstars causing them to push up against the salary cap but that is far from the reality.

The next place to discuss that also reflects on ownership is the fact that Guy Boucher is still employed. Yes, Ottawa structured and bored their way to within an overtime goal of the Stanley Cup Finals last season but they were awful this year. Boucher’s system is outdated. The Senators aren’t a fun team to watch and his lineup decisions left a lot to be desired. I’m not saying every team moves on from their coach under the same circumstances but many likely do. However, there is no way Melynk would pay another coach to not coach his team.

I am sure there will be people that disagree with my inclusion of the Matt Duchene trade here but I am going to do it anyways. I am not the biggest Matt Duchene fan. I’m not going to say he isn’t a good player, but I will say I wouldn’t have given up what Ottawa. I do not know much about Shane Bowers, the prospect Ottawa traded but I think Ottawa is really going to come to regret the draft picks they gave up plus Kyle Turris. I would rather pay Kyle Turris the same $6M and retain my prospect and draft pick. A correlation between Ottawa’s free fall and their trade of Turris does not necessarily mean there is causation, I wonder how much of an impact the trade had on team chemistry.

Offseason Plans

This offseason is franchise defining for the Ottawa Senators. The Senators have two first-round picks and have to make a decision on Erik Karlsson. The only way Ottawa should go into the season with Erik Karlsson on the roster is if he has signed a long-term extension. If Karlsson doesn’t sign an extension with the team this offseason, I doubt his position is going to change over the course of the season. At this point, Ottawa’s leverage in a potential trade will be highest this summer. There will be the most potential suitors and they still in theory would have another opportunity to trade him. However, if they wait until the trade deadline, that option disappears. I think the toughest regard for the Karlsson trade is if Ottawa attempts to execute it prior to the draft to add a third first-round pick. Regardless, Ottawa will also likely be able to recoup a 2019 first round pick, that they have decided to give to Colorado to complete the Matt Duchene trade.

Speaking of giving up the 2019 first-round pick, I think Ottawa should think long and hard about it. The chances of Ottawa picking higher than fourth next year is approximately 50-50 if next season sees Ottawa finishing last. Though the concern for Ottawa certainly has to be they finish last or potentially win the lottery next year and miss out on the next highly touted forward prospect, Jack Hughes.

I don’t think Ottawa has this type of thinking because you don’t want to believe it as a GM but Ottawa is coming off a 30^th place finish and will likely be trading their superstar player. I have a tough time believing Ottawa will improve next season. Even though this year’s fourth overall pick is incredibly valuable, it is known. Unbridled optimism is a very common downfall that many GMs fall victim to.  If I was Ottawa, I would think long and hard about giving their pick to Colorado this year. If they are going to go into this offseason not planning to add, as tough of a decision as it is, I would give up fourth overall, with the mindset of recouping a first round pick in the Erik Karlsson trade.

Speaking of an Erik Karlsson trade, we will now move to Bobby Ryan, who it was rumored the Senators would like to include in any potential Karlsson trade to get out from under his contract. I am going to scream to Ottawa: DON’T DO IT! Bobby Ryan is still a decent player, though overpaid for his production, but what you are essentially doing is dramatically diminishing your return. First, no team is going to give up anything close to what they would if they were to trade for just Karlsson. Second, you are dramatically cutting down the number of teams that could potentially trade for Karlsson. For a team already lacking top talent, I don’t know if subtracting Ryan and adding another hole is a smart decision.

The Senators are clearly a team lacking top end talent and two of definite top guys, Mark Stone and Mike Hoffman, have questions surrounding their future. Mark Stone is up for arbitration and will likely will an award higher than the Senators would like to pay him (if it gets that far). It seems unlikely the Senators would walk away from a Mark Stone arbitration decision but with a stingy owner, I would never say never. I would look to give Stone a long-term contract and make him part of the future solution. Another short-term deal, signals to me that Stone will be gone in the near future and leave the team devoid of even more top talent.

Mike Hoffman is another player whose name inexplicitly surfaced in trade rumors last offseason. With any other team and any other owner, this is not the case. But Melynk is not any other owner and high paid players who underachieve at all will have their names surface in trade talks. If I am Ottawa and trying to turn things around quickly, Hoffman and Stone and players I look to build around. However, I wonder if the smarter decision for Ottawa is to tear it down and bottom out (it certainly would be cheaper!). In that case, those are players you can move to really speed up the rebuilding process.

Besides Karlsson, the Senators face two other decisions on their blueline with two more arbitration eligible players in Cody Ceci and Fredrik Claesson. If Ceci still has value across the league, I would look to move him for assets. He could be a player that would make sense to include in a “hockey trade,” where both teams move a player who isn’t living up to what their perceived potential is.

The numbers like Fredrik Claesson and he is a player who would probably be a great partner for a Erik Karlsson (if he is still there) or Thomas Chabot. Claesson’s Relative Corsi For Percentage is basically even, meaning the Senators perform no better or worse when Claesson is on the ice. Claesson’s Relative Corsi For % is where it is because the team struggles to generate shots when he is on the ice. Claesson was the top regular player on Ottawa in Relative Corsi Against, basically meaning he excels in a shot suppressing, shut-down role. Pairing Claesson with a shot-generating defenseman like Karlsson or Chabot would probably be an ideal match. This past season saw Claesson play the most with Karlsson out of any partner and he exceled in that role, posting a 3.5% Relative Corsi For Percentage. I would look to keep Claesson while moving Karlsson.

Overall, Ottawa will be one of the most interesting teams to watch this season as the hockey world will be tuned in to see what happens with Erik Karlsson, who might become the biggest star in hockey to be traded in the salary cap era. The decision on Karlsson should define the rest of the offseason plan for Ottawa as moving the star should probably move Ottawa into rebuilding mode. If they are going to rebuild, they should go all in and move the likes of Stone and Hoffman. Ottawa came really close with their core and they have already started to dismantle it with the trade this year of Brassard. If Karlsson is also traded, it makes little sense to keep the same core around as it is likely the achieved the best they possibly could.

Please be sure to check in again tomorrow as we take an in-depth look (maybe not quite as deep) at the Arizona Coyotes. If you enjoyed this review, please follow us on Twitter, @afpanalytics, and share it with your friends!

Stats have been pulled from NaturalStatTrick.com and Corsica.hockey. Salary info from Capfriendly.com

KYLE STICH is the Director of AFP Analytics.  In addition, Mr. Stich is a tax specialist and Director of Operations at AFP Consulting LLC, whose clientele include professional athletes performing services on three separate continents. Mr. Stich earned his Master of Science in Sport Management with a Concentration in Sport Analytics from Columbia University in 2017. He earned his undergraduate degrees in Accounting and Sport Management from St. John Fisher College in 2015, where he has served as an adjunct professor teaching Sport Finance and Baseball Analytics.