While I was getting together with my family for Thanksgiving, I was asked if I thought if the Buffalo Sabres were good and if they would make the playoffs. I’m sure my cousins are not the only ones with that question so instead of keeping the discussion to the family get together, I will lay out my thoughts here. Let’s start with the fact that the two questions do not have to be mutually exclusive. The Sabres can make the playoffs without being “good.” Teams can play win enough games against lesser opponents and sneak out some wins against better opponents to sneak into the playoffs. Overtime losses are also a way for teams that aren’t as good to pad their point total. Let’s dig into some of the important metrics that could tell the story of the 2018-2019 Buffalo Sabres. All statistics shown were collected on November 29, 2018 before any games took place that day. For the Sabres, this captures their first 25 games. The statistics only reflect team performance during 5v5 play and were collected from Corsica.Hockey and NaturalStatTrick.com.

Are the Sabres Lucky?

I want to start by dispelling the notion that the Sabres have gotten incredibly fortuitous in their roaring start to the season. Has there been some luck involved? Likely, however, they might be creating some of their own luck. Obviously to win hockey games, you need to score goals and you need to stop goals. Since hockey is played by humans, there is no formula that can perfectly predict whether every initial shot will be a goal or be saved. The puck bounces, sometimes in your favor, sometimes against you. It is expected that these bounces should even out over the course of the season. Because of this, we can look at a measurement called PDO, which adds together save percentage and shooting percentage. We would expect this total to add up to one (or close to it). To visualize where teams stand I have created a graph and shown it below. This graph plots the team shooting percentage on the x axis and the save percentage on the y axis. To show where teams should over time regress to, I have plotted the orange line which shows a PDO of one. We would expect most teams to move toward that line over the course of the season. That does not mean every team will. Some teams will intentionally play a certain style of hockey that lends itself to performing well in one area or another. Some teams will just not have the talent to increase one area or another.

The Sabres are in a good spot here as they are in close proximity to nearly a third of the league and are very close to the orange line. The team is being propelled by a little stronger than expected goaltending so if their play is to drop, I would bet it is because of a few bad bounces against their goaltenders or just bad goals that the goalies should save. You will notice that most of the teams farthest above the orange line are teams with some incredibly talented players either on offense or in goal. Except for the New York Islanders. If I was a fan of them, I might try to remember the good times unless Barry Trotz as the coach is the incredibly talented player.

Many people will talk about the Sabres’ record in one goal games as a reason the team might be headed for some regression. Let’s look to last season as an example of how teams performed in one goal games over the course of the season. Please note, I hand counted these totals so there is a chance I made an error somewhere along the way. Shootout wins and losses are counted. Let me provide you with a few summary statistics so you don’t have to pour over the table. On average, teams played 35 one goal games. Ottawa played the most one goal games last year with 42. New Jersey was second with 41. Toronto and New Jersey won the most with 25 each. Colorado and Minnesota played the least with 25 and 26 respectively. The correlation between “Winning % in 1 Goal Games” and the team’s “Overall Winning %” is .85. There were 16 teams to win at least 50% of their one goal games, 12 of those made the playoffs. To put things simply, teams should expect to have 43% of their games end as a one goal game. The good teams win those games, the bad teams lose them.

Overall in one goal games, the Sabres are 10-2 (.833), with both losses coming in overtime. Carter Hutton is 8-1 this season and last season 10-5 in one goal games (overtime and shootouts included). I think we are past the point where this success is beyond luck. Hutton has to be doing something right to continuously be on the right side of one goal decisions. Can the Sabres maintain the pace they have been in one goal games? It would be unlikely. However, if they are a good team, their success in one goal games does not have to drop off a cliff. The Sabres are on pace to play 39 total one goal games, meaning they should play 27 more. Last season, Toronto played 38 and won 25. Assuming that is close to the best a team can do, the Sabres will likely finish those remaining 27 games with a record around 15-12. If they do that, the will definitely make the playoffs. The question is are the Sabres a good team?

Are the Sabres Good?

Weeeeellllll… The “beyond the boxscore” statistics indicate they might be average. However, if you’re a Sabres’ fan, you should be happy with the team playing average for the rest of the season because that likely gets them into the playoffs where anything can happen. The Sabres are good in some aspects of the game and struggle in others.

What the Sabres do Well

To win hockey games, you have to outscore your opponent. The Sabres are doing that as they have a Goals For % of 52.69%, tenth best in the NHL. Part of the reason they have a positive Goals For % is they have done incredibly well in outscoring opponents in the high danger area on the ice as their High Danger Goals For % is 58.49%. Some will question whether that is sustainable. It will be close. The Sabres’ goalies are currently saving high danger shots at a rate of 86.36%. Hutton’s high danger save percentage (HDsv%) has been 82.65% over the last three seasons. His HDSv% is currently 87.34%. He is likely due for a little regression. Linus Ullmark is the wild card here. He was absolutely phenomenal in this area last year in the AHL. I don’t recall the exact HDSv% he had but it was in the high 80s possibly low 90s. He is currently at 85.37% in the NHL so I wouldn’t expect any regression from him but there is a chance to see some progression. He will likely play a greater percentage of games as the season progresses, so Hutton’s regression might be offset by Ullmark playing more and sustaining or progressing. Further, the team has actually allowed two more goals than expected during 5v5 play and have not been hurt by that. On the penalty kill the Sabres have allowed two less goals than expected, balancing out their 5v5 number. Simply put, I don’t expect a major drop off in the Sabres’ goals against.

Offensively, the Sabres are also performing around expectations. During 5v5 play, they have been expected to score 44 goals. They have scored 49. Could they regress to scoring exactly the same number as they are expected to? Absolutely. However, because of this torrid start, a slight regression will not hurt them. Their expected goals of 44 ranks 17^thin the league, which is three goals below average. Even if the team begins to regress during 5v5 play, they would be expected to progress on the power play where they have been expected to score 19 goals but have actually only scored 16. Much like their goals’ against pace, they currently are playing at a sustainable goals for pace.

If you want to talk yourself into the Sabres being a good team, you could but I’m not confident in going quite that far.

Causes for Concern

I will point to two metrics here that are troubling. During 5v5 play, the Sabres are allowing teams to take more shots than they are taking and based on expected goal metrics are expected to be outscored. The Sabres currently rank 20^thin Corsi For % (Shots For %) with a rate of 49.05%. They also rank 18^thin expected goals % (xGF%). How likely are the Sabres to stay in the race for the President’s Trophy if they keep their metrics at the current level? Not very. Does this mean they won’t make the playoffs? Not at all. Does it mean they can’t improve their metrics to be in the top half of the league? Nope.

Some of you are probably wondering why this matters since the Sabres have shown they can win games despite struggling in these metrics. Well let’s put it this way. Let’s say you are playing Blackjack and you keep hitting on 15 and 16 and not busting. Are you going to continue hitting on 15 and 16 and expect the same outcome? I would hope not unless you are utilizing some skill like “counting cards.” Maybe the Sabres have their equivalent of counting card, in that they figured something out to sustain their success. However, just like constantly hitting on 15 and 16 will likely come back to bite you at some point, the Sabres are likely to have their recent level of play come back and bite them.

The metrics indicate that the Sabres are likely to start losing games if they continue playing as they are. Most teams that make the playoffs finish in the top half of the league in some of the metrics I have discussed above. However, I think there are multiple reasons to believe that the Sabres can actually improve their metrics to match their current point total. The top five teams in Corsi For % are Carolina, Vegas, San Jose, Calgary, and Tampa. The Sabres have played six of their 25 games against those teams. Three more of the Sabres’ games have been against the sixth best team, Montreal. Nine games have also come against teams with lower Corsi For %s than the Sabres. The break down for xGF% is similar.

Some of you are probably thinking back to what I discussed in the previous section and think I am overreacting to their poor metrics. Maybe you’re right. However, if game after game the Sabres are constantly being outperformed as the metrics indicate, their expected goals for will start to slow and their expected goals against will climb quicker. That is not a formula for success. Think of it this way: If every game the Sabres allow three more shots and take three fewer shots, they might not be hurt in that game but let’s say hypothetically every nine shots leads to a goal. Now every three or so games they are likely allowing an extra goal and not scoring an additional goal. That will lead to them losing an additional game and now instead of winning two out of three games, they are losing two out of three games. For a team that likely only needs to average a point per game going forward, a scenario like our hypothetical could lead to things being closer than they should be.

The Sabres should be able to benefit from playing some weaker opponents which will start to happen after their December 4^thgame against Toronto. If the Sabres finish the calendar year still keeping pace with the top teams in points and have not moved either of their CF% or xGF% above 50%, I would be shocked. The only way I can see that happening is if they race out to massive leads and then completely stop playing for two-thirds of the game. They likely will see their metrics uptick or their point total downtick.

Ok Great But What Does This Mean For The Playoffs

There are two complete wild cards that I need to bring up before we talk about the playoffs. First, the Sabres have been relatively healthy this season, having very few of their important players miss games with injury. Injuries are going to start to happen. If their key players can avoid them, the team should be fine. If the Sabres’ depth players start to get bit by the injury bug, that could even be to their benefit. Some of the players currently playing in the AHL are probably better than some of the depth players. However, it makes little sense to recall their young players to only play them in a limited fourth line role when they can play top minutes and win in the AHL. The same goes for the defense, although outside of Marco Scandella (and to a lesser extent Rasmus Ristolainen) most of the defenders have actually played pretty well. Goaltending is the only place where I would be seriously concerned if they needed to rely on players in the AHL.

The other factor to consider is how the younger players continue to play as the season goes on. Lately, Rasmus Dahlin, Casey Mittelstadt, and Tage Thompson have been playing incredibly well and showing continued signs of improvement. If that continues, the team could be incredibly scary. However, there is also the possibility that the grind of the long season could cause them to hit a wall. I would anticipate Dahlin to continue to grow. The other two players could go either way.

Simply put, the Sabres would have to have a monumental collapse at this point to not make the playoffs. They have banked enough points early on that basically will require them to average around a point a game for the rest of the season to make the playoffs. With the ability to get a point in overtime and considering the fact the Sabres are at worst an average team, it would be a complete shock to not see them in the playoffs and once they get in there is no telling how far they could go.

Stats courtesy of Corsica.hockey and Naturalstattrick.com. Image courtesy of indystar.com

KYLE STICH is the Director of AFP Analytics.  In addition, Mr. Stich is a tax specialist and Director of Operations at AFP Consulting LLC, whose clientele include professional athletes performing services on three separate continents. Mr. Stich earned his Master of Science in Sport Management with a Concentration in Sport Analytics from Columbia University in 2017. He earned his undergraduate degrees in Accounting and Sport Management from St. John Fisher College in 2015, where he has served as an adjunct professor teaching Sport Finance and Baseball Analytics.