For the next 31 days, AFP Analytics is going to take a critical look back at how the season played out for all 31 NHL teams, starting with the last place team (Buffalo Sabres) and ending with the Stanley Cup Champions. In addition to a season recap, we will look at some major decisions the team will be facing this offseason.

Edmonton Oilers

The Oilers came into the season with Stanley Cup aspirations. Whether the expectations were fair or not, the team fell way short, failing to qualify for the playoffs. At the halfway point in the season some felt the Oilers could be in the running for yet another number one overall pick. The team was able to dig its way out of the basement but was not close to securing a playoff spot. Any season that Connor McDavid is not playing in the playoffs should be considered a lost season. The Oilers players and management are equally at fault for this disaster of a season.

Bright Spots

There is no sense in wasting any time, when discussing bright spots, we can go directly to Connor McDavid. He is the most exciting player in the league and the fact that Patrick Maroon and Milan Lucic spent time as his best winger this season is a complete disservice to the skilled center. McDavid had 71 even strength points this season, 12 better than Nikita Kucherov who had 59. The Oilers were an above 50% Corsi team and as expected McDavid was one of the team’s best possession players, with an individual corsi percentage of 52.41%. There is not much I can say about McDavid that has not already been said. His speed and skill make him one of the best talents in the league and the Oilers cannot allow another season of his to go to waste by not making the playoffs.

Darnell Nurse was a highly touted prospect when he was selected 7^th overall in 2013. It may have taken him a little bit longer than expected but he is developing quite nicely into an impact defenseman. Nurse’s corsi was 51.1%, one of the best on the team. He has improved each year since his debut and has become an even better puck mover as well. In 2016 he produced .4 assists per 60, in 2017 that number increased to .7. Nurse has also shown he can play physical and the Oilers are hopeful he can continue to develop into a steady option in the team’s top 4.

Major Disappointments

Not to beat a dead horse but the Oilers management team must be the first disappointment mentioned. I know it has been two years since the dust has settled on the Taylor Hall for Adam Larsson trade, but it is impossible not to mention. Hall is one of the favorites to win MVP and Larsson will have his own paragraph in this section coming up. Hall is the player the Oilers are hoping players like Ryan Strome and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins would become. Why the Oilers would trade Hall for a middling defenseman is beyond comprehension. Of course, Hall’s performance this season makes the trade look worse but for a team who is struggling to find a partner to play with McDavid, trading Hall looks like an inexcusable offense.

Another move the Oilers made that did not fetch the proper return was the Patrick Maroon trade. Maroon was playing relatively well and was one of the team’s most important players. The idea of bad teams moving contracts to acquire picks and prospects is a good idea. However, it does feel like the Oilers could have acquired more than a 2019 3^rd round pick and a prospect who was selected in the 6^th round. Sure, Maroon is a pending UFA, but the market was relatively dry and a player with his numbers at the deadline could have fetched a greater return.

Milan Lucic must be mentioned as another disappointment. However, I don’t know what is more disappointing, his level of play or his contract. Lucic is signed to a 7 year $42M dollar contract with a no-move clause until the 2021 season. This means Lucic cannot be moved until he is 33 years old and if he does not right the ship there will be no teams interested by the time he is able to be moved. Lucic appeared in all 82 games this past season and only registered 34 points. He did have above average possession numbers, but 34 points is not enough for a player signed to such a long-term, high AAV contract.

Another player in Edmonton who has failed to live up to expectations is Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. The former number one overall selection has not lived up to his 2014 and 2015 seasons where he scored 56 points. He showed signs of turning the corner this season but suffered a rib injury that only allowed him to play in 62 games this past season. He did score 48 points in those 62 games, so Oilers brass could be encouraged by his season and will need to hope he continues to improve in 2019.

The Oilers were bitten by the injury bug, but some key players were able to stay healthy and just failed to perform. Adam Larsson appeared in 63 games in 2018 and only registered 13 points. Of course, points may not be the best measure of a defenseman’s performance so let’s look at some possession numbers. Larsson had the 5^th best Corsi for percentage among Oilers defensemen. When you consider the fact that Larsson was a 4^th overall pick and was TRADED FOR TAYLOR HALL, his performance is not nearly where it needs to be. Larsson is locked up on a contract with a $4.16M dollar cap hit for the next three years. The cap hit is more than reasonable if Larsson can play up to the level the Oilers were hoping he would, but there have not been enough signs that he is going to be able to do so.

Offseason Plans

The Oilers will only have $10M in projected cap space heading into the offseason. Darnell Nurse is a RFA and young players like Anton Slepyshev, Drake Caggiula, Matthew Benning and Ryan Strome are all up for new contracts as well. In simple terms, the Oilers will have a very similar team in 2019. Whether that is a good or a bad thing remains up for debate. Goaltender Cam Talbot figures to be back between the pipes and the core of young players will likely remain intact.

The question Oilers management might be asking itself is, was signing Leon Draisaitl to his monster extension the smart move? If teams out there are willing to trade for him should we consider the offer? Draisaitl is an above average NHL player and dominated the 2016 playoffs but the critics could ask how much of his production is due to Connor McDavid. Realistically I don’t think the Oilers should consider moving him. The team is not going to get any younger and there is still hope for a player like Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. Talents like Draisaitl are hard to come by and the Oilers do not have a good track record of trading young, highly skilled, forwards.

The Oilers will head into 2019 hopeful their group of young players can get even better and the team returns to its 2017 luck, I mean form. Any team with Connor McDavid will have a chance to be successful so it will be up to management to push the right buttons. Unfortunately, it remains to be seen if management can push those buttons.

Please be sure to check in again tomorrow as we take an in-depth look at the New York Islanders. If you enjoyed this review, please follow us on Twitter, @afpanalytics, and share it with your friends!

Stats have been pulled from NaturalStatTrick.com and Corsica.hockey. Salary info from Capfriendly.com

JUSTIN WHITE is an intern AFP Analytics. Justin is a graduate of St. John Fisher College where he earned his degree in Sport Management and Statistics. He has worked with the Rochester Americans and members of their coaching staff on various analytics and statistics based projects.

For the next 31 days, AFP Analytics is going to take a critical look back at how the season played out for all 31 NHL teams, starting with the last place team (Buffalo Sabres) and ending with the Stanley Cup Champions. In addition to a season recap, we will look at some major decisions the team will be facing this offseason.

New York Rangers

Next up in our 31 in 31 season review is a look at the New York Rangers, who acknowledged they are going to look to rebuild and began doing so by trading captain Ryan McDonagh and Rick Nash at the trade deadline, along with the buyout of Dan Girardi last summer. I think this is a smart move for the organization but this offseason will be critical to set the tone for how they are going to approach the rebuild.

Season Bright Spots

The biggest bright spot has to be the team has acknowledged they have a flawed core and are looking to rebuild. I have a philosophy when it comes to team building and up until now, I think the Rangers have previously came up short in adhering to it. I think once teams come as close to a Stanley Cup as they possibly can but still fall short, they need to adjust their core. After coming up just short in the 2013-2014 season, it should have been apparent a team with the same core likely wasn’t going to get it done. The Rangers kept largely the same core, came up shorter, then still kept a very similar core, and really repeated that until now. Had they acknowledged their flaw earlier, the return they received for many players could have been even greater. Now that they have realized their need to rebuild, I am going to count that as a positive.

The Rangers appear to have some promising young defensemen in their organization. I like Brady Skjei a lot. This year he played all 82 games, while posting a positive relative Corsi For Percentage. The only two defensemen to perform better in relative Corsi For Percentage, were also young players; those two players were Tony DeAngelo and John Gilmour. It looks like the Rangers have three promising young blueliners who could start regularly contributing as early as next season. Neal Pionk also made some noise for his point streak at the end of the season but his possession numbers are much less promising.

I’m honestly struggling to find other bright spots. Ranger fans have to be happy with Mika Zibinijad. He was the team’s best forward when looking at possession numbers and is on a very team friendly contract, with a cap hit of just $5.35M for the next four years. If he were on the open market, he would easily have a cap hit of at least $7M, maybe even above $8M. Having that type of cap savings, provides the Rangers with some flexibility going forward or maybe makes eating Dan Girardi’s contract more palpable.

Major Disappointments

To put things frankly, the Rangers were lucky (or unlucky depending on how you feel about racing to the bottom) to finish as high as they did. The Rangers were the worst possession team at 5v5 by more than a full percentage point. They were propped up by a PDO of nearly 1, having a league average shooting percentage and league average goaltending at 5v5. If you want to look at their underlying numbers in an optimistic way, you can be comforted by the fact that they were not propelled by luck. In reality, nearly everyone on the team could be discussed here.

When I’m looking at the numbers for the Rangers’ forwards, I am left to wonder if their forward group is one of the weakest in the league. They at best have five forwards, Zibanejad, Kreider, Buchnevich, Namestnikov, and Zuccarello, who I look as borderline first-line, quality second-line players. I don’t think Buchnevich has lived up to the hype that accompanied him as he was coming into the league.

Kevin Shattenkirk’s play also had to disappoint Ranger fans this season. After being the big fish in free agency, he missed half of the season and was basically an average player in the games he played. He did manage to finish with a positive relative Corsi For Percentage (.47%), though barely, and it was propelled by good shot suppression. For a defenseman who is thought of as someone who drives offense, that is certainly not an encouraging sign.

Offseason Plans

The Rangers are going to be one of the most fun teams to watch this offseason. They have three first-round picks, two of which will be late in the round though. They also are currently projected to have $24.5M in cap space and they need top end talent. I don’t think handing out big money deals with term would be a smart approach. The team is likely one of the favorites to land Ilya Kovalchuk, who might instantly become the team’s best forward. The wise move would be to only give him a year or two length, even if it would require the team to pay a little more. The front office has done a great job clearing undesirable long-term contracts off the books and can’t afford to just spin the wheels.

The other name who is going to be connected to the Rangers is John Tavares. Like Kovalchuk, he would certainly add the top end talent the team needs, but signing Tavares would likely eat up half of their cap space for next season. Potentially pair that with Kovalchuk and the team is likely left with $6M to $8M in cap space. Even though they need top talent, they can’t completely sacrifice their depth either, unless they are comfortable enough with some of their young, cost-controlled players filling those roles.

I think if the Rangers approach this offseason correctly, meaning they don’t throw tons of money around in free agency, they can really set themselves up to be a future powerhouse. They need to look at the broader picture when it comes to how they approach this offseason. They play in a division with Columbus, Pittsburgh, and Washington, teams who are in a win-now window, and New Jersey, Philadelphia, and Carolina, who are teams on the rise. The Rangers would be wise to wait for one or two of the win-now teams’ windows to close before they look to be aggressive.

This means a couple things. First, they should definitely not trade any of their first-round picks for veteran players. Next, do the Rangers have a conversation with Lundqvist about potentially moving on? It might behoove both parties to seriously consider this. I also think the Rangers should just keep Marc Staal and Brendan Smith on the roster (or buried in the minors) unless they can find a willing party to make a trade with. Any trade should not involve the Rangers giving up assets to move the salaries, retaining salary cap would be fine on one of them though.

One avenue that I would look to explore is to package some of their first-round picks to get higher in the draft to get top end talent. I’ve written it many times already that it takes two to tango and I don’t see many teams at the top moving down, as they too have needs for top talent. The Oilers could be the exception here, as they could really benefit from adding more depth, even if those players aren’t quite as talented. Or the Oilers could look to acquire two first-rounders to trade for players they think will make an immediate impact.

I think the Rangers are set up much better for the future than a lot of the other teams that finished around them or below in the standings. They need to stay the course though and not get blinded by the glitzy names in free agency. That is going to be tough for a team playing just blocks away from Broadway. The majority of the signings the Rangers should focus on is their restricted players. They also could probably benefit from adding another goaltender who can be relied on. I don’t really think Lundqvist will be moved but having someone else that can provide him with more rest through the season has to be a top priority. I doubt Washington would move Grubauer inside the division, but he would be my ideal target were I in charge of the Rangers.

The Rangers have a chance to make this summer really fun and interesting for their fans, but I think a quiet offseason is what should make fans excited.

Please be sure to check in again tomorrow as we take an in-depth look at the Edmonton Oilers. If you enjoyed this review, please follow us on Twitter, @afpanalytics, and share it with your friends!

Stats have been pulled from NaturalStatTrick.com and Corsica.hockey. Salary info from Capfriendly.com.

KYLE STICH is the Director of AFP Analytics.  In addition, Mr. Stich is a tax specialist and Director of Operations at AFP Consulting LLC, whose clientele include professional athletes performing services on three separate continents. Mr. Stich earned his Master of Science in Sport Management with a Concentration in Sport Analytics from Columbia University in 2017. He earned his undergraduate degrees in Accounting and Sport Management from St. John Fisher College in 2015, where he has served as an adjunct professor teaching Sport Finance and Baseball Analytics.

For the next 31 days, AFP Analytics is going to take a critical look back at how the season played out for all 31 NHL teams, starting with the last place team (Buffalo Sabres) and ending with the Stanley Cup Champions. In addition to a season recap, we will look at some major decisions the team will be facing this offseason.

Chicago Blackhawks 

Next up in our 31 in 31 season review is a look at the Chicago Blackhawks, who went from dynasty to bottom of the standings in a very quick time frame. The Blackhawks are an interesting team to look at as their possession numbers say they are still an elite team. Was much of their struggles due to the poor goaltending they received after Corey Crawford was injured (excluding Scott Foster of course). However, the team is saddled with many aging players on long-term, large money contract that will make it hard for the team to really change much up.

Season Bright Spots

I want to start with Alex Debrincat, a player who many people questioned whether or not could be a NHL player. Although I can’t point to anything with a timestamp to back up my claim, I was not one of those people. I find it impossible to believe that someone who dominated a level development league, playing against many players who many observers think will be future NHL players. To me, it seems likely that a player who dominates at the level against his present and likely future opponents, that player will likely be successful. Anyways, I digress and will move on to Debrincat’s performance this season.

Debrincat scored 18 goals at even strength, 28 overall while having a 53.7% Corsi For Percentage. That stat line would be really good for any player, let alone “an undersized” rookie, jumping directly from juniors. If you want to be someone who wants to look for reasons to not like Debrincat, you can point to the fact that he spent the most time with Jonathan Toews as his center, to that I would say, there is a reason the coaching staff put him there: It’s probably because he’s good.

The next major bright spot to look at is Scott Foster, the accountant, emergency goaltender, who somehow had enough free time during tax season to post a third period shutout against one of the league’s best teams. In a season filled with disappointment, especially in the crease, Scott Foster’s overnight fame and success was a great story.

The brightest spot for Chicago this season might have been the trade of Ryan Hartman for Nashville’s first-round pick. Even though the pick will be at the backend of the first round, the Blackhawks desperately need to add top end, cost-controlled, young talent to supplement their aging stars.

Major Disappointments

I think the obvious place to start is the injury to Corey Crawford, who is probably more appreciated than ever before. The Blackhawks were off to another strong start before Crawford was shut down in December with a concussion, playing in only 28 games. Everyone who replaced him (except Scott Foster), struggled mightily. I think the biggest concern for Blackhawk fans is that it seems like Crawford has really struggled with the effects (and maybe after effects) of his concussion. If he struggles to bounce back next season, the team could be in big trouble.

Do I need to talk about Brett Seabrook? I think I will touch quickly on him. I was surprised to look at the Blackhawks’ salary situation and find out that Seabrook, not Keith or Crawford is the highest paid Blackhawk behind Toews and Patrick Kane. Oh, he also has six more years remaining on his contract with a full no-move clause. The contract takes him until he is 39 years old. As I am sure Blackhawk fans know, Seabrook’s play was, umm, less than stellar. I’ll just leave it at that and spew a few clichés. No need to rub salt in the wound. No need to beat a dead horse.

I don’t know what else to really touch on here. The Blackhawks’ possession numbers were overall good. Their PDO, a stat that adds Shooting % and Save%, and should regress toward 100, was the seventh worst in the league. With a little more “puck luck,” they might have a significant improvement in the standings next year. The biggest hurdle for the Blackhawks next season may be the fact that they are in a division with this year’s two best teams and four other very talented teams.

Offseason Plans

I don’t know what Chicago can really do this offseason? Pray to the injuries Gods that Crawford and maybe Hossa can return at full strength? The Blackhawks enter the offseason with just under $7.5M in cap space that could deplete even further with any overage bonuses they have to pay out. They are going to have to add at least five forwards within that cap space. Duclair, Jurco, and Hinostroza could be relatively cost controlled as they are restricted free agents. Those players will probably account for a cap hit of around $4M, leaving the team with $3.5M to fill their remaining two spots, one of which is Patrick Sharp, who has found his stride in broadcasting and looks to be done playing hockey.

The Blackhawks are going to have to look to fill out their roster with younger talent. Anthony Louis was the leading scorer for the team’s AHL affiliate, the Rockford IceHogs. It would be logical to think he could get a long look, especially considering the Blackhawks had success with Debrincat, another undersized forward. Though Louis’s 48 points in 70 games isn’t quite the level of production I would want to translate to a sure thing at the next level. He probably projects as more of a bottom six player. Matthew Highmore was the IceHogs’ leading goal scorer, netting 24 goals in 64 games and could be another player to get a look if the team is looking for a player with a scoring touch.

However, I think the Blackhawks’ best plan of action is to see if they can land an impact forward high in the draft that can come in and contribute immediately. They also have to be going hard after any college free agent forwards, who they think can come in and play right away. They could also look to bring one of their European forward prospects into the fold as well. Please note that I am assuming Dylan Sikura will be one of the players to definitely make the team.

The conclusion to come to here is the Blackhawks really need to clear some money. It seems like Artem Anisimov would be the most logical player to be moved to clear some cap space, though that doesn’t necessarily help with their forward depth problem. His salary is and production would be attractive but his No-Move Clause may act as a hindrance. Brandon Saad is another player I could see teams being interested in but it seems highly unlikely he will be traded after trading away Artemi Panarin to reacquire him.

Obviously, the best way to clear cap space would be to move one of their $10.5M men, Patrick Kane or Jonathan Toews, or one of their aging defensemen, Brent Seabrook or Duncan Keith. I think it would be near impossible to move any of those players for a litany of reasons. Though making hockey decisions based on how your fans would react is not the best way to do business, I don’t see how you can sell moving Toews or Kane to your fans. The next problem is it takes two to tango. I think there would be plenty of interest in Toews or Kane, but the massive cap hit would certainly be a major issue. Though I wonder if we hear any rumblings of a Toews to Montreal trade. Moving one of Seabrook or Keith probably means adding assets to move the contract off your books. I’m not sure if Chicago is really in a position to do that again, as that is really what has gotten them into this mess to begin with.

I think a quiet offseason in Chicago might be the best course of action. There might be another season of below-average performance but keeping as much future cap space clear while also building their prospect pool. The team’s underlying numbers suggest a turnaround next season is more likely than not.

Please be sure to check in again tomorrow as we take an in-depth look at the New York Rangers. If you enjoyed this review, please follow us on Twitter, @afpanalytics, and share it with your friends!

Stats have been pulled from NaturalStatTrick.com and Corsica.hockey. Salary info from Capfriendly.com.

KYLE STICH is the Director of AFP Analytics.  In addition, Mr. Stich is a tax specialist and Director of Operations at AFP Consulting LLC, whose clientele include professional athletes performing services on three separate continents. Mr. Stich earned his Master of Science in Sport Management with a Concentration in Sport Analytics from Columbia University in 2017. He earned his undergraduate degrees in Accounting and Sport Management from St. John Fisher College in 2015, where he has served as an adjunct professor teaching Sport Finance and Baseball Analytics.

The Vancouver Canucks finished the season with 73 points. The team was entering a transition phase and now that the Sedin’s have announced their retirement the team will be able to fully transition to the future. The focus now shifts to their young talent and some of the players that played well in Utica in the AHL.

The Canucks were among the worst possession teams despite having the Sedin twins who are typically very strong players in terms of Corsi. With the Sedin’s out of the picture the team will be looking to fill the void not only on the ice but in the locker room as well.

Bright Spots

The Sedin twins’ retirement and final home game will be the highlight of the season for the Canucks, but they did have young talent who produced all season as well. Bo Horvat has been a solid NHL player since his debut at age 19 in 2014. Horvat missed games to start the season but was able to register 44 points in 64 games. Horvat had a 50.1% CorsiFor and was able to drive possession on a team that struggled possessing the puck. Another bright spot in Horvat’s game was his power play production. He generated 3.5 shots from the inner slot per 20 minutes of power play time. The inner slot shot is a high percentage shot and the fact that Horvat was consistently able to find time and space in the slot bodes well for the Canucks powerplay in the future. Horvat is already signed to a long-term contract with a reasonable cap hit, he figures to be a key component of the Canucks moving forward.

The Canucks had another young forward make an impact as well but unfortunately his season was cut short by injury. Brock Boeser was selected to the All-Star team and was well above a 30-goal pace prior to his injury. Boeser showed that he is more than capable of scoring at the NHL level and his shot ranks among the best in the game. Boeser was among the teams most creative offensive players, but he is a natural goal scorer and that is reflected in his statistics. Boeser was able to generate more than 1.5 shots from the slot per 20 minutes of ice time. The Canucks ran their powerplay through Boeser, much like Washington does with Alexander Ovechkin. Boeser averaged 4.82 one timers per 20 minutes on the powerplay. Look for that number to grow as Boeser continues to develop as a player. Boeser is the future face of the Canucks and is a player Canucks fans can be excited about moving forward.

Lastly, the Canucks traded for Derrick Pouliot from the Pittsburgh Penguins. Pouliot was a top 10 pick in 2012 and spent time with Coach Travis Green in Portland. Pouliot showed signs of developing into the puck moving defenseman that warranted a top ten draft selection. He was among the best passers from the back end, 75.4% of his stretch passes were successful, something that is very important in today’s game. Pouliot was able drive possession by making close to 10 outlet passes from the defensive zone per 20 minutes. Pouliot looks like a player who could be signed for a small cap hit and has the potential to be one of the most important players on the roster moving forward.

Disappointments

The Canucks were not close to qualifying for the playoffs, so it is safe to assume that there were many disappointing aspects to their season. However, the expectations were not very high, and the team finished close to where many expected. The most obvious disappointment is Loui Eriksson, when he was acquired the team expect a prolific scoring forward and he has failed to meet the grand expectations. Eriksson has developed nicely into a two-way player, but his point production is simply not on par with where it needs to be for a player with such a large cap hit. It does not look like the Canucks will be able to move Eriksson because he has a no move clause and there is not likely to even be a market for a forward of his age and play style.

The back end is where the Canucks are hurting the most. Alex Edler is a solid player but players like Chris Tanev and Erik Gundbranson have failed to live up to expectations in Vancouver. Gundbranson is an interesting case, the Canucks management was dead set on resigning the defenseman and many fans were wondering why. Gundbranson has a Corsi For of 44% which is, in the simplest of terms, not good. He was expected to play a physical, stay at home type game but he is not doing a good enough job in his own end. He was only winning contested loose puck battles 35.5% of the time in his own end, a percentage way too low for a player of his style.

Lastly, the goaltending situation might not be considered a full-fledged disappointment, but Jacob Markstrom failed to truly claim the starting job. Anders Nilsson did not challenge Markstrom for the job and the young goaltender was able to play in 60 games. Markstrom ranked in the middle of the pack in nearly all the key goaltending statistics and it will be interesting to see if Thatcher Demko will challenge for games in 2019.

Offseason Plans

The Sedin twins retiring means the Canucks will head into the offseason with money to burn. The team will have more than $23M in cap space to use. Lets first look at their own pending UFA’s and RFA’s. Players like Pouliot, Nic Dowd, and Darren Archibald should be cheap to sign if the team chooses to do so. That still leaves plenty of space. Naturally, the focus shifts to the big name free agents. John Tavares is the biggest name and the question figures to be whether he is willing to play in Vancouver. The Canucks must keep Boeser and his potential contract in mind when negotiating with free agents, but the team would be able to fit Tavares easily. If Tavares is not an option, the team can shift the focus to other top-tier free agents but as I would say to any GM, be wary of giving out big money deals on July 1^st.

Teams are typically built through the draft and the Canucks do not have any additional picks in any of the next three drafts. If the 2019 season starts poorly, the Canucks might be best off moving some of their veteran players to acquire more picks.

With that being said, the team does have one of the best prospect pools in the league. Elias Pettersson is projected to develop into a top line forward and is showing no signs of slowing down. He has dominated the SHL as a 19-year-old and figures to compete for NHL time next year. Goaltender Thatcher Demko also figures to compete for NHL time after a strong AHL campaign. Other prospects such as Tyler Motte, Johnathan Dahlen, Reid Boucher and Kole Lind figure to compete for NHL time in the not so distant future.

In conclusion, the decisions the front office makes this offseason has the potential to alter the course of the franchise. The prospect pool is exciting but teams with so many elite prospects must avoid handcuffing themselves and becoming a cap team before the young players are even up for their second contracts (looking at you Detroit). The Canucks figure to be a middle of the pack team next season that could possibly contend for a playoff spot but asking young players to immediately step in and fill the void left by the Sedin’s seems like a lot to ask.

Please be sure to check in again tomorrow as we take an in-depth look at the Chicago Blackhawks If you enjoyed this review, please follow us on Twitter, @afpanalytics, and share it with your friends!

Stats have been pulled from NaturalStatTrick.com and Corsica.hockey. Salary info from Capfriendly.com

JUSTIN WHITE is an intern AFP Analytics. Justin is a graduate of St. John Fisher College where he earned his degree in Sport Management and Statistics. He has worked with the Rochester Americans and members of their coaching staff on various analytics and statistics based projects.

The Red Wings appear to be entering a bit of a down time after one of the most impressive playoff streaks in the history of the sport. The Wings came into this season without playoff expectations and the team performed right on par with what experts and fans expected before the season started. Questionable decision making may have set the franchise back a few years and this puzzle does not look like it will have a quick fix.

Bright Spots

The Red Wings have three young players that could be the core of their team moving forward. Dylan Larkin, Anthony Mantha and Andreas Athanasiou are all younger than 24 and figure to be key producers to the team moving forward.

Dylan Larkin entered the NHL in 2015-2016 straight from University of Michigan and made an immediate impact. After a minor sophomore slump, he was able to score 61 points this past season and developed into a more well rounded offensive player. Larkin’s CorsiFor% was exactly 50% which is impressive for a player who has the reputation as offensively minded. His expected goals for was .08 goals/20min below his expected total. With a few more fortunate bounces it is reasonable to expect Larkin to increase his goal total next year.

Andreas Athanasiou is the second of the three young players who saw significant minutes for Detroit this season. He was able to produce 33 points, 33 of which were at even strength. I would expect him to see more powerplay time in the coming years and his point total should increase by 10-15 points per season. He has shown flashes of excellence when controlling the puck and is was able to carry the puck into the offensive zone 5.6 times per 20 minutes of ice time. He is a player who excels on the rush, so his skillset looks like it should be a good fit for the modern game.

Lastly, Anthony Mantha deserves a mention in the bright spots section. He was arguably the biggest bright spot in Detroit this year. After producing 36 points in 60 games in 2016-17 he played 80 games in 17-18 and totaled 48 points. He was a key powerplay contributor but did mange to score 35 even strength points. He was an elite powerplay scorer, using his heavy frame to get to the front of the net he had a True Shooting Percentage of 20.8%. Mantha figures to be a net-front presence in Detroit for years to come.

Dissapointments

Trading Thomas Tatar was a good start for Detroit but there were other players the Red Wings could have shipped out of town at the trade deadline. Justin Abdelkader produced 34 points while counting for $4.3M dollars against the salary cap. The point production does not match the cost, but more importantly Abdelkader is already 31 years of age and the new emphasis on speed makes him a player who many teams would no longer consider a top six forward.

Mike Green had a fine season on the back end, but he figures to leave the team in free agency this July. Niklas Kronwall will not be going anywhere anytime soon. The 37-year-old carries a $4.8M dollar cap hit that figures to take him off the radar for any potential trade. It may seem unfair to call Kronwall a disappointment because of his age, so we can place the blame on the front office for locking up the aging defenseman for so long. He still was reliable to clear the zone when he got the puck, but the younger faster forwards gave him a tough time in his own end. He was not able to block many passes or accumulate many successful stick checks per game. The issue is not so much his performance as much as it is his age and contract status.

Offseason Plan

The Red Wings had an uneventful season. The team performed right on par with their expectations, their top players produced to the level fans can expect and the rest of the team… well they played 82 hockey games. The team only had two players score more than 20 goals and there are plenty of concerns for the team heading into the offseason.

Remember the 3 bright spots from above? Well all three of those players are entering RFA status and the team has roughly $18M in cap space heading into free agency. The team will likely lose Mike Green so there is a top 4 defenseman and 3 young forwards the team will need to sign with relatively limited funds. Players such as Henrik Zetterberg (age 37, $6M), Frans Nielsen (age 34, $5.25M), Johnathan Ericsson (age 34, $4.25M), Trevor Daley (age 34, $3.17M) combined with Kronwall and Abdelkader are all aging and have handcuffed management. In the perfect world the Red Wings would be able to move most, if not all, of these players to open cap space and roster spots for younger talent. Unfortunately for the Red Wings it takes two teams to make a deal and I do not see other teams forming a line to trade for aging players with large cap hits.

This means the Red Wings cannot be throwing money around in free agency like they may have been willing to do in the past. Some of the contracts mention above expire after the 18-19 season and the team will have much more cap flexibility next summer. Focusing on resigning their own talent should be the priority this offseason.

The Red Wings will have a decision to make this offseason. Assuming they are only willing to sign one player to a long term deal they will have to decide between Larkin and Mantha. From an age standpoint alone, lets assume it is going to be Dylan Larkin. Larkin is only 21 years old and has shown he can produce at the NHL level. Assuming the Wings choose to go straight to the long term deal we can assume it would look something like 6-8 years with a cap hit between $6 and $7M. This would be a fair deal for both sides and would bring the available cap space down to $12M. We are assuming if the Wings chose Mantha instead of Larkin he would receive a similar deal.

This leaves two deals to be signed, assuming the two are shorter term with smaller AAVs (let’s say 3.5 each) the Wings are looking at $5M of cap space left. In other words, the team is not in good standing financially. The Wings will have the same team returning next year with $5M of cap space to replace green and resign a handful of other potential free agents. Tyler Bertuzzi is an interesting prospect who has been plagued by injuries but has also reached RFA status. The team would have to pony up some of the $5M if they want to keep them in the fold.

Even if the Red Wings do what is suggested and sign their own talent and steer clear of signing other free agents they will have tough decisions to make. With all due respect to the young core is it reasonable to expect a core of Larkin, Mantha and Athanasiou to compete for a Stanley Cup. I do not think that is possible, they are lacking a true number one center.

However, the best way to acquire a star center is through the draft and the Wings are loaded with picks. This year the team has 7 picks in the first 3 rounds. Their own pick is sixth and they have ammunition to either move up or to stockpile picks for the coming years. I would recommend the Wings try to add as many first round picks as possible in 2019 and perhaps even 2020. Their roster now is made up of fine complementary players, but they will still need a true star if they hope to return to the glory days.

Please be sure to check in again tomorrow as we take an in-depth look at the Vancouver Canucks. If you enjoyed this review, please follow us on Twitter, @afpanalytics, and share it with your friends!

Stats have been pulled from NaturalStatTrick.com and Corsica.hockey. Salary info from Capfriendly.com

JUSTIN WHITE is an intern AFP Analytics. Justin is a graduate of St. John Fisher College where he earned his degree in Sport Management and Statistics. He has worked with the Rochester Americans and members of their coaching staff on various analytics and statistics based projects.

For the next 31 days, AFP Analytics is going to take a critical look back at how the season played out for all 31 NHL teams, starting with the last place team (Buffalo Sabres) and ending with the Stanley Cup Champions. In addition to a season recap, we will look at some major decisions the team will be facing this offseason.

Montreal Canadiens

Next up in our 31 in 31 season review is a look at the Montreal. If I were to list the order of GM jobs I would want to take from most to least desirable with regards to the team’s current situation, Montreal would be in my bottom five. This season certainly was a disappointment as they dealt with major injuries to key players, namely Carey Price and Shea Weber, however, I don’t think having either of those players at full health going forward is going to majorly change the team’s fortunes.

Season Bright Spots

I have some sympathy for Montreal fans as their team really did not have a lot go right for them this season and the future doesn’t look any better. The biggest reason for optimism though for Montreal is the fact they finished with a 50.53 in Corsi For % good for 15^th overall. Corsi For % is usually a good indicator of where teams are headed and Montreal’s does signal a little optimism for fans.

Canadien fans had to be pleased with the production they saw from Paul Byron and Nic Deslauriers did for them this season. Paul Bryon has now put two good seasons together for Montreal, scoring 20 goals in each while also putting up positive possession numbers at 5v5. The most encouraging thing though about Byron is he was able to maintain a very high shooting %.

Nic Deslauriers came over from the Buffalo Sabres in exchange for defenseman Zach Redmond. I would hope Canadien fans didn’t expect much production from Nic Deslauriers when he came in. Hopefully, Deslauriers’s offense contribution was a pleasant surprise to Montreal fans. However, they probably shouldn’t get overly excited as Deslauriers’s shooting % was nearly 5% higher than his previous career high and he had the third worst CF% (46.63%) and Relative CF% (-3.43%) among players to play at least 30 games. I’m not so sure giving him a midseason contract decision was the smartest move (maybe for GM Marc Bergevin it was but he’s set the bar pretty low).

Brenden Gallagher is always one of those players that I don’t think he’s really that good but then go back and look at his stats and change my tone. He probably has been one of Montreal’s best players the past few years and he comes at a price of $3,175,000. An absolute bargain for a player that has the best possession numbers on the team (among regular players) and led the team in overall scoring.

Major Disappointments

The obvious place to start is with the injuries to the team’s two biggest stars. Shea Weber’s injury is hopefully not one that will lead to him having lingering effects. Weber has been a very durable player for his career so Montreal can be hopeful that this was a freaky blip on the injury radar. I don’t know if we can say the same for Carey Price.

Carey price has now had significant injuries in two of the last three seasons. Two seasons ago he struggled to recover from a knee injury and this year missed time with another lower body injury and a concussion. When he did play, he didn’t perform to the level that has become expected of him. By the way, next year Carey Price counts against the Canadiens’ cap for $10.5M for the next eight seasons. Spending more on one goalie than most teams spend on two seems like a suboptimal way to run a team, especially when that goalie is 30 years old and is signed until he is 38 years old. If I were a Canadien fan, I would be a little concerned.

Alex Galchenyuk and Max Pacioretty are two other players Canadien fans had to be disappointed with this season. There is probably a little more reason for concern for Galchenyuk than Pacioretty. Galchenyuk was a negative possession player for only the second time in his career. A deeper dive also shows that Galchenyuk played his most 5v5 minutes with Jonathan Drouin and dragged down Drouin’s possession numbers. Drouin’s numbers improved from 48.36% to 53.29% when he played away from Galchenyuk. Pacioretty, on the other hand, had very solid possession stats (a 5v5 Corsi For% of 53.31%).

There is a reason for optimism for both players and it starts and ends with their miserable shooting percentages this year. Both players had their career worst shooting percentages. A player’s shooting percentage generally will regress to the mean, meaning over time a player’s shooting percentage will move toward their career average. For example, Pacioretty had a career shooting percentage of 8.2% (during 5v5 play) heading into last season. This season he shot 4.72%, bringing his average down to 7.8%. We would expect to see Pacioretty to have a shooting percentage around 8% next season.

I also think there has to be a little bit of a bad taste in the mouths of Canadien fans when it comes to the Jonathan Drouin-Mikhail Sergachev trade. Drouin wasn’t bad and is signed to a reasonable long-term contract but it has to hurt to see the player traded away excel immediately and play a key role in Tampa Bay’s successful season. It also doesn’t help the team likely filled their void on blueline by handing out a long-term deal to Karl Alzner. Call me crazy but I would much rather have Sergachev and not have Drouin and Alzner (mostly Alzner). However, couple that with the continued sting of the PK Subban trade and fans must want Bergevin to be banned from using his phone.

Offseason Plans

Yikes. Remember when I said taking charge of this team would be one of the least desirable in sports? Well its mostly because the team is going to be hard-pressed to make too many major moves. The Canadiens, much like many of the other teams who finished this low in the standings, really lack top end talent. Outside of maybe Drouin, I don’t see any player on this roster who truly should be playing top line minutes for this team. They are also incredibly weak down the middle. It’s possible that bringing in some true top center talent, could go a long way to solving problems.

I would be surprised if Alex Galchenyuk is on the roster opening night. He seems to be a player that could benefit from a fresh start. There has been speculation that a trade with the Buffalo Sabres centered around center Ryan O’Reilly and Galchenyuk would make a lot of sense. I don’t know if I see the fit. The obvious detractor would be due to the two teams being rivals in their division. I don’t love using that argument as a reason to not make a trade.

Instead, I don’t think Montreal benefits from adding another long-term contract at a high dollar amount that they will likely regret in another year or two. Swapping O’Reilly for Galchenyuk would bring the team’s salary cap space to just above $10.5M. If they retain their restricted players for around $1M each, They’re quickly down to around $6.5M in salary cap space. This really isn’t much space to add the talent they need unless they make some other move.

That other move could involve Max Pacioretty, their current captain, who will be entering the last season of his contract. He’s signed for a very reasonable $4.5M and will hit the age of 30 next season. I would look to trade him this offseason. I think he could fetch a solid return from a contending team and would clear salary cap space for a significant player. The worst move the Canadiens could make is to sign him to a big dollar, long-term extension.

If you have read the entire offseason plan and connect the dots, it would be logical to think John Tavares would be a fit for the Canadiens. I agree. However, to make it happen, it probably means moving one or both of Galchenyuk and Pacioretty for prospects and picks. In other words, signing Tavares would likely be the only major roster change that would have an impact on the team next year. Tavares is really, really good but I’m not sure signing him to a deal that is at least at the level of Carey Price will really help this team. The upgrade Tavares would provide over the players the team will likely have to move seems like it would be less than you would hope if you are bringing in a star player.

Unfortunately for Canadien fans, it looks like the team is going to be spinning their wheels for many years to come. They have too much money locked up in long-term deals to players who are unlikely to perform at the level of their pay. The team has to hope it can add some impactful players in this year’s draft. Having the third overall pick and four second-round picks should certainly help, but many of the players they take will likely be two or three years away from the NHL. Fans better hope the possession numbers the team achieved this year were not a fluke and carry over into next season and translate to a better season finish.

Please be sure to check in again tomorrow as we take an in-depth look at the Detroit Red Wings. If you enjoyed this review, please follow us on Twitter, @afpanalytics, and share it with your friends!

Stats have been pulled from NaturalStatTrick.com and Corsica.hockey. Salary info from Capfriendly.com

KYLE STICH is the Director of AFP Analytics.  In addition, Mr. Stich is a tax specialist and Director of Operations at AFP Consulting LLC, whose clientele include professional athletes performing services on three separate continents. Mr. Stich earned his Master of Science in Sport Management with a Concentration in Sport Analytics from Columbia University in 2017. He earned his undergraduate degrees in Accounting and Sport Management from St. John Fisher College in 2015, where he has served as an adjunct professor teaching Sport Finance and Baseball Analytics.

The Arizona Coyotes started the 2017-2018 season with higher expectations than previous seasons, but most fans and experts were realistic about just how well the team would perform. It was not a secret that the Coyotes were in the middle of a youth movement, but some of the offseason moves suggested the team was gearing up to enter more of a win now mode. Trading for players like Derek Stepan and Antti Raanta added veteran leadership to a team full of exciting young talent. Of course, this proved to be wrong as the Coyotes again finished near the bottom of the league.

It is no secret that the Coyotes have bought into the analytics movement. John Chayka spoke at the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference this past February about how the team has dove into the analytics pool, both on and off the ice. He spoke about a willingness to acquire players who are always looking to get better and made sure to mention his rookie phenom, Clayton Keller. The use of statistics and analytics is something worth monitoring in Arizona.

Season Bright Spots

It would be impossible to write about the bright spots of the Coyotes without first mentioning Clayton Keller. If not for Mathew Barzal, Keller would have been the favorite to win the rookie of the year. Keller has the speed and skill to succeed at the NHL level for a long time, so it does not come as a surprise that he succeeded on the power play. 20 of Keller’s 65 points came while the Coyotes had the man advantage. For comparisons sake, Jack Eichel produced 20 of his 64 points while on the power play. Of course, Eichel only appeared in 67 games while Keller played all 82, but the point here is that Keller was a very productive player during 5v5 play as well. Keller producing 44 even strength points is a great sign and he is the definite shining star of the organization.

Keller was not the only young player who got ample ice time in Arizona this past season. Players like Brendan Perlini (22), Max Domi (23), Jakob Chychrun (20) and even Dylan Strome (21) were able to play significant minutes for the Coyotes this season. When evaluating players so young the traditional numbers may not be the best measure. For example, Chychrun only had 14 points. However, he showed flashes of being a top end defenseman and his Corsi% of 47.6% was right in line with the rest of his team. While that number is not on par with some of the better teams in the NHL there is something to be said that the players under the age of 24 are not the players that are holding the team back.

We will touch on Domi later, but Dylan Strome has been a topic of conversation as well. Drafted 3^rd after Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel, Strome has not come close to producing at the level of his counterparts. With that being said, his expectations should never have been that high in the first place. Strome was never touted as a generation talent and may need more time to develop, which is totally normal for a 3^rd overall pick. An in depth look at Strome’s brief NHL stint does illuminate some bright spots. Strome was a great playmaker, his pass to the slot success rate was 52.8%, one of the best in the league. The doubters will question the sample size, but the Coyotes organization would likely view this as a promising sign. Look for Strome to make more of an impact in Arizona next year.

A bright spot section about the Coyotes would not be complete without the inclusion of star defenseman Oliver Ekman-Larsson. He has played on some weak teams but has continued to produce at a high level. OEL is a point producing power play quarterback but is also a strong defender. He was frequently able to intercept or block passes (7.2/20min) and turn them into successful offensive zone entries (1.47/20min). His current cap hit is $5.5M which seems like a bargain for his contributions. OEL will be a UFA in 2019 which will be discussed later in this piece.

Major Disappointments

Antti Raanta performed well enough to earn himself a 3 year, $12.75M contract with the Coyotes. However, that number could have been even higher if he was able to stay healthy. His health is the reason he finds himself on the disappointment list. Raanta posted a 21-17-6 record in his 47 appearances for the Coyotes this past season. His Save% of .930 is among the best in the league, but he was only able to appear in 47 games and was listed on the injury report five separate times throughout the season. Regardless of your opinion on goalie contracts, (I believe that they are WAY too high) it is difficult to argue that Raanta did not perform well, and the Coyotes record would have been considerably better if he was able to appear in more games.

Moving out of the net, some of the biggest issues the Coyotes had relate to the new age of hockey statistics and measures. Possession and zone entries are becoming more and more prominent, and the Coyotes are among the worst in the league at successfully entering the offensive zone. The Coyotes only had 785 controlled entries into the offensive zone with a shot on net following the zone entry. This results in only 9.57 shots on net per game. This means that most of their chances are coming off recovered dump ins or defensive turnovers. The best teams can score and produce on the rush. The game is shifting toward speed and skill and 9.57 shots off controlled entries is not nearly enough. The Columbus Blue Jackets were near the top of the league and they generated 993 shots off controlled entries. The Coyotes will have to hope their youth can help change this before it becomes a common trend.

Young talent can also disappoint because of the high potential that may have been shown in previous seasons. After registering 52 points in his rookie year, Max Domi has failed to reach the 50-point plateau in each of the past two seasons. Domi is an upcoming RFA and the Coyotes will have a difficult decision to make with Domi this offseason. His production dropped again this past year and with so many other young players in the pipeline Domi may lose his spot as one of the team’s top young players. His name has been floated in trade rumors and the Coyotes have shown they are willing to move young talent after trading Anthony Duclair.

The last two disappointments go hand in hand. The Coyotes have forward depth but a look at their prospects shows that the team could use more defenseman in their prospect pool. Pierre-Olivier Joseph is a nice prospect, but he is only 18 years old and is still several years away from the NHL. Players like Kyle Wood and Kyle Capobiaco had solid AHL seasons but do not necessarily project out as top NHL defenseman.

The Coyotes had the 3^rd best odds to win the NHL lottery but they were jumped by the Hurricanes and Canadiens in the draft lottery. The Senators have the rights to the fourth pick which means the Coyotes fell to 5^th and will miss out on some elite level prospects. No team wants to fall in the lottery and the Coyotes must feel a little snake bit, but the opportunity to select Quinn Hughes could excite the front office and fanbase.

Offseason Plans

The Coyotes currently have 49 of their 50 allotted contracts in use and still have more than $21M in available cap space. Assistant Captain Brad Richardson is a UFA, at age 33 it is unclear where he fits in the Coyotes vision for the future. Defenseman Luke Schenn and Kevin Connauton, both age 28, are also UFAs and will be looking to increase their $1.25M and $1M dollar contracts. The team will have to decide how much they are willing to pay to keep veteran leadership without taking too much ice time from some of their young players.

The two biggest decisions will come with two of the most important players, Max Domi and Oliver Ekman-Larsson. Domi is a restricted free agent and his decline in production suggests a bridge deal may be the smartest option for the Coyotes front office. A two or three-year deal at a reasonable cap hit seems like the smartest option, especially when the other option is committing for 5 years or more. Domi could develop into a nice player but for a team with many other young players committing long term and big money to a player who has declined since his rookie year is not the best option.

The Coyotes should be monitoring the Erik Karlsson situation very closely because they could have a comparable situation on their hands with OEL. Ekman-Larsson may not be on Karlsson’s level, but he certainly is a top pair defenseman and teams might be willing to pay a premium if they are confident enough in their ability to ink him to a long-term deal. He is under contract in Arizona for the 2019 season, but the trade rumors will continue to swirl until he is moved, or he signs in Arizona long term. Ekman-Larsson has been on some losing teams in Arizona and he has said that the money alone will not determine where he chooses to play when he does become a free agent. Despite the claims that he wants to stay in Arizona and John Chayka’s apparent desire to resign the defenseman, the Coyotes should play hard ball make their stance to OEL very clear. If he is not 100% committed to resigning in Arizona by the time the trade deadline rolls around the Coyotes should move him to the highest bidder. Losing a player like Ekman-Larsson would be a significant blow to the team but losing him for nothing in free agency could be the type of move that costs people their jobs.

In conclusion, the Coyotes should improve in 2019 because of their young talent and a potentially healthy Raanta between the pipes, but it might not be smooth sailing just yet. The players may need another year to develop and the Ekman-Larsson situation has the potential to be a dark cloud hovering over the team for the entire offseason and beyond. Look for Arizona to improve next season but I would not expect to see the team in the postseason quite yet.

Please be sure to check in again tomorrow as we take an in-depth look at the Montreal Canadiens. If you enjoyed this review, please follow us on Twitter, @afpanalytics, and share it with your friends!

Stats have been pulled from NaturalStatTrick.com and Corsica.hockey. Salary info from Capfriendly.com

JUSTIN WHITE is an intern AFP Analytics. Justin is a graduate of St. John Fisher College where he earned his degree in Sport Management and Statistics. He has worked with the Rochester Americans and members of their coaching staff on various analytics and statistics based projects.

For the next 31 days, AFP Analytics is going to take a critical look back at how the season played out for all 31 NHL teams, starting with the last place team (Buffalo Sabres) and ending with the Stanley Cup Champions. In addition to a season recap, we will look at some major decisions the team will be facing this offseason.

Ottawa Senators

Next up in our 31 in 31 season review is a look at the Ottawa Senators. After coming one overtime goal from reaching the Stanley Cup Finals, the Senators fell finished the season second to last. The Senators got off to a blazing start this season even with star Erik Karlsson, easing into the season after his offseason surgery. Then the team traded Kyle Turris in the trade to land them Matt Duchene. The team won their first two games after the trade but then fell off a cliff. As the free fall took place, serious questions arose as to whether the team would move superstar defenseman Erik Karlsson as it became more and more likely that Karlsson would test the free agent market next offseason.

Season Bright Spots

Erik Karlsson was still really, really good despite having what had to have been the toughest season of his career. Karlsson started off still recovering from surgery, faced continued scrutiny regarding his contract, and decided to end his season early when his wife tragically lost the couples’ unborn child. Karlsson still managed to play in 71 games and lead the team in relative Corsi For Percentage (5.67) among the team’s regular skaters. For those unfamiliar with this statistic, the basic premise is that when Karlsson was on the ice, the Senators had a 5.67% better shot share.

Senator fans have been salivating to see what Thomas Chabot could do as his potential seemed sky high. I don’t see how anyone Senator fan cannot be excited about the future of Chabot. Chabot is another smooth skating, puck-moving defenseman that I would love to have on my team any day.   He finished fourth among regular players in relative Corsi For Percentage (3.25%). He’s likely to only get better as he gains NHL experience. Having Chabot and Karlsson on the blueline is something most teams would kill to have. It’s unfortunate Ottawa owner Eugene Melynk does not run one of the teams as he seems more concerned with maintaining an internal salary cap.

Mike Hoffman and Mark Stone both performed well once again relative to what they get paid. Hoffman’s production dropped slightly from last but that would be expected on a team that regressed so severely. He still produced 20 goals, 56 points, and was a positive possession player on the second to worst team while only counting against the cap for just over $5,187,500.

I might be biased when it comes to Mark Stone as he led my fantasy team to a championship but he was another valuable player for the Ottawa Senators. Stone finished tied for the team lead in points with none other than Erik Karlsson and was also third on the team in Relative Corsi For Percentage (4.67%). Stone did all that while being paid $3.5M due to his status as a restricted free agent. Mark Stone is arbitration eligible and likely looking at a fairly significant raise this offseason. His numbers indicate he definitely should be paid much more than this season’s $3.5M. I’m not going to do Stone’s agent’s job for him and make his arbitration argument, at least not in public.

Major Disappointments

I think all of Senator fans’ disappointments have to start with a discussion of their ownership group. Let’s not sugarcoat this, I think a good portion of the Senators’ problems could be solved if their ownership’s top priority was spending whatever it takes to put the best product on the ice every year. The fact that many people thought Erik Karlsson was going to be traded at the deadline and now it seems a near certainty that he will be moved this summer because he wants to be paid his worth is pure lunacy. Under no circumstances should a team be looking to trade arguably the best defenseman in the entire NHL simply because they don’t want to pay him his market value. I might write this differently if the Senators have multiple superstars causing them to push up against the salary cap but that is far from the reality.

The next place to discuss that also reflects on ownership is the fact that Guy Boucher is still employed. Yes, Ottawa structured and bored their way to within an overtime goal of the Stanley Cup Finals last season but they were awful this year. Boucher’s system is outdated. The Senators aren’t a fun team to watch and his lineup decisions left a lot to be desired. I’m not saying every team moves on from their coach under the same circumstances but many likely do. However, there is no way Melynk would pay another coach to not coach his team.

I am sure there will be people that disagree with my inclusion of the Matt Duchene trade here but I am going to do it anyways. I am not the biggest Matt Duchene fan. I’m not going to say he isn’t a good player, but I will say I wouldn’t have given up what Ottawa. I do not know much about Shane Bowers, the prospect Ottawa traded but I think Ottawa is really going to come to regret the draft picks they gave up plus Kyle Turris. I would rather pay Kyle Turris the same $6M and retain my prospect and draft pick. A correlation between Ottawa’s free fall and their trade of Turris does not necessarily mean there is causation, I wonder how much of an impact the trade had on team chemistry.

Offseason Plans

This offseason is franchise defining for the Ottawa Senators. The Senators have two first-round picks and have to make a decision on Erik Karlsson. The only way Ottawa should go into the season with Erik Karlsson on the roster is if he has signed a long-term extension. If Karlsson doesn’t sign an extension with the team this offseason, I doubt his position is going to change over the course of the season. At this point, Ottawa’s leverage in a potential trade will be highest this summer. There will be the most potential suitors and they still in theory would have another opportunity to trade him. However, if they wait until the trade deadline, that option disappears. I think the toughest regard for the Karlsson trade is if Ottawa attempts to execute it prior to the draft to add a third first-round pick. Regardless, Ottawa will also likely be able to recoup a 2019 first round pick, that they have decided to give to Colorado to complete the Matt Duchene trade.

Speaking of giving up the 2019 first-round pick, I think Ottawa should think long and hard about it. The chances of Ottawa picking higher than fourth next year is approximately 50-50 if next season sees Ottawa finishing last. Though the concern for Ottawa certainly has to be they finish last or potentially win the lottery next year and miss out on the next highly touted forward prospect, Jack Hughes.

I don’t think Ottawa has this type of thinking because you don’t want to believe it as a GM but Ottawa is coming off a 30^th place finish and will likely be trading their superstar player. I have a tough time believing Ottawa will improve next season. Even though this year’s fourth overall pick is incredibly valuable, it is known. Unbridled optimism is a very common downfall that many GMs fall victim to.  If I was Ottawa, I would think long and hard about giving their pick to Colorado this year. If they are going to go into this offseason not planning to add, as tough of a decision as it is, I would give up fourth overall, with the mindset of recouping a first round pick in the Erik Karlsson trade.

Speaking of an Erik Karlsson trade, we will now move to Bobby Ryan, who it was rumored the Senators would like to include in any potential Karlsson trade to get out from under his contract. I am going to scream to Ottawa: DON’T DO IT! Bobby Ryan is still a decent player, though overpaid for his production, but what you are essentially doing is dramatically diminishing your return. First, no team is going to give up anything close to what they would if they were to trade for just Karlsson. Second, you are dramatically cutting down the number of teams that could potentially trade for Karlsson. For a team already lacking top talent, I don’t know if subtracting Ryan and adding another hole is a smart decision.

The Senators are clearly a team lacking top end talent and two of definite top guys, Mark Stone and Mike Hoffman, have questions surrounding their future. Mark Stone is up for arbitration and will likely will an award higher than the Senators would like to pay him (if it gets that far). It seems unlikely the Senators would walk away from a Mark Stone arbitration decision but with a stingy owner, I would never say never. I would look to give Stone a long-term contract and make him part of the future solution. Another short-term deal, signals to me that Stone will be gone in the near future and leave the team devoid of even more top talent.

Mike Hoffman is another player whose name inexplicitly surfaced in trade rumors last offseason. With any other team and any other owner, this is not the case. But Melynk is not any other owner and high paid players who underachieve at all will have their names surface in trade talks. If I am Ottawa and trying to turn things around quickly, Hoffman and Stone and players I look to build around. However, I wonder if the smarter decision for Ottawa is to tear it down and bottom out (it certainly would be cheaper!). In that case, those are players you can move to really speed up the rebuilding process.

Besides Karlsson, the Senators face two other decisions on their blueline with two more arbitration eligible players in Cody Ceci and Fredrik Claesson. If Ceci still has value across the league, I would look to move him for assets. He could be a player that would make sense to include in a “hockey trade,” where both teams move a player who isn’t living up to what their perceived potential is.

The numbers like Fredrik Claesson and he is a player who would probably be a great partner for a Erik Karlsson (if he is still there) or Thomas Chabot. Claesson’s Relative Corsi For Percentage is basically even, meaning the Senators perform no better or worse when Claesson is on the ice. Claesson’s Relative Corsi For % is where it is because the team struggles to generate shots when he is on the ice. Claesson was the top regular player on Ottawa in Relative Corsi Against, basically meaning he excels in a shot suppressing, shut-down role. Pairing Claesson with a shot-generating defenseman like Karlsson or Chabot would probably be an ideal match. This past season saw Claesson play the most with Karlsson out of any partner and he exceled in that role, posting a 3.5% Relative Corsi For Percentage. I would look to keep Claesson while moving Karlsson.

Overall, Ottawa will be one of the most interesting teams to watch this season as the hockey world will be tuned in to see what happens with Erik Karlsson, who might become the biggest star in hockey to be traded in the salary cap era. The decision on Karlsson should define the rest of the offseason plan for Ottawa as moving the star should probably move Ottawa into rebuilding mode. If they are going to rebuild, they should go all in and move the likes of Stone and Hoffman. Ottawa came really close with their core and they have already started to dismantle it with the trade this year of Brassard. If Karlsson is also traded, it makes little sense to keep the same core around as it is likely the achieved the best they possibly could.

Please be sure to check in again tomorrow as we take an in-depth look (maybe not quite as deep) at the Arizona Coyotes. If you enjoyed this review, please follow us on Twitter, @afpanalytics, and share it with your friends!

Stats have been pulled from NaturalStatTrick.com and Corsica.hockey. Salary info from Capfriendly.com

KYLE STICH is the Director of AFP Analytics.  In addition, Mr. Stich is a tax specialist and Director of Operations at AFP Consulting LLC, whose clientele include professional athletes performing services on three separate continents. Mr. Stich earned his Master of Science in Sport Management with a Concentration in Sport Analytics from Columbia University in 2017. He earned his undergraduate degrees in Accounting and Sport Management from St. John Fisher College in 2015, where he has served as an adjunct professor teaching Sport Finance and Baseball Analytics.

For the next 31 days, AFP Analytics is going to take a critical look back at how the season played out for all 31 NHL teams, starting with the last place team (Buffalo Sabres) and ending with the Stanley Cup Champions. In addition to a season recap, we will look at some major decisions the team will be facing this offseason.

Buffalo Sabres

First up in our 31 in 31 season review is a look at the lottery winning Buffalo Sabres. The Sabres came into the season with heightened expectations. They had a new GM in Jason Botterill and new coach in Phil Housley who was hired to try to bring a more exciting style of play that would hopefully jump start the offense. The team’s generational talent, Jack Eichel, was supposed to have his breakout season and maybe if the stars aligned, the Sabres would be able to declare their rebuild over with their first playoff berth since the 2010-2011. The exact opposite happened and at the end of the season the team and fans were just left shaking their heads, left with more questions than answers.

Season Bright Spots

I could write this sentence and be done and there probably wouldn’t be many arguments, but I think there are a few things worth bringing attention to. There is one player on the Sabres’ roster that I have always shouted from the highest mountains, over a loudspeaker, to try to get the world (or maybe just Sabres observers) to see and hear is actually really good. That player is Sam Reinhart. Reinhart’s biggest problem has never been whether he is a good player or not, it is admittedly, his consistency. There were games when he was flat out awful, but those games were not just in the first half of the season. A lot of people observing the Sabres thought Reinhart was only good in the second half of the season. That would be true if you only want to look at goals and point production.

There a few reasons I like Sam Reinhart so much. First, he is a very, very smart player. If you watch him closely, he more often than not is in the spot the puck is going. Unfortunately, the not is usually in the defensive zone, which is where observers usually notice his mistakes. However, there are many times in the offensive zone where he beats the puck to a spot because he knows where it is going. He also is tremendous in giving a target for a breakout passes in the neutral zone. The problem is the Sabres lack players to make that pass. From a numbers perspective, Reinhart was one of the few Sabres to finish the season with positive possession numbers with a CF% of 51.43%, best among regular players. His relative Corsi For % was also the best on the team among regular players at 5.27%, meaning the Sabres improved their shot share by that amount when he was on the ice.

Beside Reinhart, there are a few notable players that are worth discussing. Jack Eichel showed flashes of dominance but another freaky ankle injury dampened the season results. If I were running the team, Eichel wouldn’t have seen the ice again after the injury even though he did finish the season on a high note after struggling mightily immediately after returning from the ankle injury. Brenden Guehle and Casey Mittelstadt also showed promise in their limited action at the end of the season. Guehle was a positive possession player (51.27 Corsi For %, 4.57% Relative Corsi) in 17 games, while Mittelstadt finished at close to a point a game, with five points in six games at all situations but also a staggering 3.51 points per 60 during 5v5 play. I also have liked Casey Nelson and Evan Rodrigues from the start of their Sabre careers but Buffalo is going need to them to take a bigger step forward next season if they are to be counted on as high-end, depth players going forward.

The brightest spot though has the be the lottery win and the ability to draft franchise defenseman, Rasmus Dahlin. This will be discussed later in the offseason plan.

Major Disappointments

How much room should I take up for this section? Where to start? These are just a few of the questions that are the metaphorical low-hanging fruit. In reality, things could not have gone much worse for Buffalo this year. The Sabres actually slightly improved their 5v5 Corsi For Percentage to 47.61% from 47.23% though their biggest problem was they struggled mightily to generate shots at 5v5 play seeing their total shots toward goal go down from 3486 to 3381 at 5v5 play. That is 1.28 less shots per game for a team that was supposed to play more up-tempo and take a step forward this season.

The question is can the Sabres sustain being this bad? The answer is unlikely. The starting point has to be the goaltending. The team finished with the fourth worst save percentage at 91.61%. Additionally, their two regular goalies, Robin Lehner and Chad Johnson, both had an actual save percentage below what was expected of them. The question is were they “unlucky” or is their skill just not at the level it should be. The answer is the later, as their results the last three seasons show both goalies’ aggregate statistics result in a save percentage worse than what would be expected of an average goalie.

Until this season, I didn’t think goaltending was even worth discussing when it came to places to improve for the Sabres. Former GM Tim Murray had mistakenly traded a first-round draft pick for goaltender Robin Lehner, who was promptly injured and missed almost the entirety of his first season with the team. Up until this season, Lehner was fine. Nothing more, nothing less. There was zero reason for the team to look for an upgrade as any marginal upgrade never would have been worth the cost associated with it. However, now seems to be the time.

Chad Johnson also struggled for much of the season in the backup role so his status also will be up in the air heading into the offseason. The Sabres also had a league worst 6.14% shooting percentage during 5v5 play. Combine that with their 91.61% save percentage and the Sabres finished with a league worst PDO of .977, a stat that should regress toward 1 over time, and it is likely the team will improve next year regardless of any roster changes.

The next place to move is the team’s highest paid players. Here we find Ryan O’Reilly, Kyle Okposo, Jason Pominville, Zach Bogosian, and Matt Moulson. Ryan O’Reilly certainly raised eyebrows with his end of season comments about losing passion for the game, but he would have landed on this list regardless of what he said at season’s end. O’Reilly is a good player and has given what he always has in terms of production. The problem is that level of production is not at the level expected out of a player being paid $7.5 million per year. The other problem is O’Reilly is not the best skater in a league where teams are finally figuring out that the path to success is speed. As he ages, this is going to become more and more of an issue.

Speaking of lack of speed, we arrive at Matt Moulson and Jason Pominville. Yes, Matt Moulson is still a part of the Sabres organization though it would be easy to forget considered he was banished to the Ontario Reign (Los Angeles Kings’ AHL team) because the team felt he didn’t bring anything to the table in Buffalo. I am not going to sit here and say Moulson is still a good player but he really wouldn’t have been any worse than what Jordan Nolan brought to the team. However, at the time Moulson was waived, the front office needed to do something to shake up the team and firing Housley was not an option.

Bringing back Jason Pominville was a fan favorite move that started off great when he was scoring in bunches playing with Jack Eichel and Evander Kane. However, as the season wore on and he spent time away from Eichel, it became apparent that Pominville was no longer the player he was last time in Buffalo. Pominville’s underlying numbers actually seem to indicate he still can be a useful player as he was the best possession player after Sam Reinhart. However, his footspeed has left him. Bringing Pominville back to Buffalo was likely a necessity as adding Marco Scandella as a top 4 defenseman was a huge need last offseason. The problem is for a team really needing to push the pace of play, Pominville is not going to be able to provide that anymore.

We now arrive at Kyle Okposo and Zach Bogosian. Both players are tough to gauge because I think injuries/health issues are the main reason both have landed in this section. I truly believe a large portion of Kyle Okposo’s struggles this season were due to the fact his summer training was severely hurt by the lingering health scare he faced at the end of last season. I could be wrong, but Okposo’s relatively strong play at the end of the season gives reason for hope.

I have never been the biggest Zach Bogosian fan as I often see him struggling with positioning and recognizing the play but I also think he is a player who could help this team as a bottom 4 defenseman if he can stay healthy. And that is the big if. Although Bogosian has been a negative possession player (Corsi For %) for all but one season of his career, the Sabres have acutally performed better, in terms of possession, when Zach Bogosian has been on the ice in two of his three seasons in Buffalo. Like many other players on the team, he has been put in a role that has asked too much of him during his time in the organization.

At a team level, there are a few issues that once again reared its head again this season. First, the team struggles mightily to breakout of their own zone. Defensemen struggle to make stretch passes and forwards struggle to give them a target, resulting in icings and extended defensive zone time. Part of this could also be the lack of speed across the team. An issue Botterill will have to address this season.

The next issue that has been apparent for the Sabres the past few years is depth scoring. Last season it took three games until a player not on Jack Eichel’s line to score a goal and things did not improve from there. The Sabres received very little production outside of their top two lines for the entirety of the season. Strong teams in today’s NHL can role three or even four lines that can score goals on any given shift.

In a league where teams are trending more and more toward speed and an up-tempo style of play, the Sabres played even slower than they did last season. One of the things Housley and Botterill focused on when they were introduced was their desire to play an up-tempo style of hockey and attack teams with speed. It quickly became apparent that the make-up of the team would not allow them to do so.

Finally, there has to be a level of disappointment with the return Botterill received in exchange for Evander Kane. I was fully in support of going into the season with Kane on the roster. I even would have liked to see him as a member of the team going forward, but it quickly became apparent that Kane would not be on the roster at season’s end. Did Botterill wait too long to make a deal or was the market just not there? We might never truly know but Sabres fans certainly have to be disappointed with the return especially seeing the impact Kane has made in his limited time with the Sharks. Botterill should have pushed to add more incentives in the deal dependent on Kane’s play. Even if the Sabres end up with the Sharks’ 2019 first-round pick, the return relative to what Kane contributed seems low, especially when comparing the Kane trade with the Stastny and Nash trades.

Offseason Plans 

The Sabres hope to become next year’s Colorado Avalanche, going from worst to the playoffs. Nothing is impossible, but if the team goes into next season with a similar roster to this season, it seems unlikely. Many of Botterill’s moves in his first offseason in charge seemed to be geared at reversing the mess he inherited, a bare cupboard of prospects, one of worst (if not the worst) bluelines in the NHL, and lack of team speed. Considering the level of disappointment, it is time for Botterill to put his own stamp on this team. However, it is hard to fathom the Sabres being this bad again next season. Their possession numbers slightly improved at 5v5 and they had the league worst PDO, driven by a league worst shooting percentage. By sheer regression to the mean (having the PDO move toward 1), the Sabres have to improve next year. Some savvy offseason moves, could see the Sabres at least in contention much later into the season.

It might be truly amazing how one ping-pong ball may change the whole complexion of the Sabres’ offseason plans. To be clear, Rasmus Dahlin will be a Buffalo Sabre come June 22^nd. Dahlin is the Connor McDavid of defensemen and any argument against taking a bona fide top-pair defenseman first overall is plain silly.

Before getting into each position group specifically, let’s take a quick look at the potential future salary cap issues the Sabres may face if they don’t start thinking about it now. Jack Eichel’s $10M cap hit takes effect next season. Sam Reinhart is also up for an extension. Ryan O’Reilly and Kyle Okposo each have six years left, Rasmus Ristolanien five, and in three years the Sabres will likely have to shell out fairly substantial contracts for Casey Mittelstadt and Rasmus Dahlin. At some point tough decisions have to be made and now might be the time considering the need for change in Buffalo. It also is better to make moves before you are backed into a corner and have to sell your assets under face value. I’m looking at you Chicago Blackhawks.

Before the first item on Botterill’s list had to be finding a top-flight defenseman. Once the Sabres draft Dahlin, the defensemen that will be competing for regular playing time next season will be Dahlin, Rasmus Ristolanien, Marco Scandella, Brenden Guehle, Casey Nelson, Jake McCabe, Zach Bogosian, Lawrence Pilut (rumored signing), and Nathan Beaulieu. The Sabres are suddenly rich on their backend but still could afford to add another top end defenseman as most of these players project to be at best second pair defenders.

Brenden Guehle has shown tremendous promise in his limited action in Buffalo and could project as a top pair defenseman. Guehle playing with Dahlin would be lots of fun to watch but I don’t see Housley starting those two players off together. Casey Nelson is a young player who the Sabres prevented from hitting the open market, re-signing him at the beginning of May to a very team friendly contract. Though he will never project to be a top pair defenseman, he could factor in as a solid depth option for the coming years.

Somewhere there is an odd man out on the blueline. Botterill would probably love to be able to get out from Zach Bogosian’s contract but finding a taker looks like it will be tough. Nathan Beaulieu was worth a third-round pick gamble but right now sits outside of the top six on the Sabres’ depth chart. He could be a player moved this offseason but the return would be nothing Sabres fans would get excited about.

This brings us to three players who have played substantial minutes on the Sabres’ top-pair the past two seasons, Jake McCabe, Rasmus Ristolainen, and Marco Scandella. If I were to wager, my money would be on one of Jake McCabe or Rasmus Ristolainen being traded this offseason. It seems unlikely Botterill would move Scandella after acquiring him last offseason and seeing steady play from him for much of the season.

Rasmus Ristolainen has been over used and maybe even misused in his entire time with the Sabres. Ristolanien has always been one of the players at the center of the analytic vs. eye-test debate. Let’s be clear, he has the talent of a top four defenseman. The question is in what capacity should he be used. To me (and many others), he would continue to play with a competent partner, but have less overall ice time, especially on the penalty kill.

I think Ristolainen still has a fairly high trade value and could fetch a pretty nice return for Buffalo. However, if I were deciding to keep one of Ristolainen or McCabe, I keep Ristolainen because he still has a higher ceiling. Many teams would likely value McCabe as an addition to a trade package as he is still young, under team control, and plays a steady game, limiting quality shots on his side of the ice, as Scott Cullen of TSN pointed out in his Sabres’ offseason overview. However, he hasn’t ever put up positive possession numbers at 5v5 and this season was the first where the Sabres’ possession numbers improved while he was on the ice. Basically, McCabe is a decent player, on a decent contract, but someone has to be the odd man out (especially on the left-side) and he might be the guy. He has no traits that would be impossible to replace and also would likely be an attractive option to other teams that could actually fetch a decent return.

Transitioning to goaltending, the plan all season was for Linus Ullmark to take over as the starter next year in Buffalo. His playoff struggles (likely a result of lingering effects of a concussion) should not change that. With Ullmark likely being the full-time goalie, retaining Lehner at a salary above $4 million does not seem practical. The question here is whether the Sabres are ready to have Ullmark take on a NHL starting goalie workload or if they look to have him split time with a veteran. If the answer is the latter, who is that veteran? Out of a relatively uninspiring goalie free agent class, the only names that I would be comfortable rolling with as a backup are Jonathan Bernier, Anton Khidobin, Carter Hutton, and maybe Chad Johnson.

This brings us to the forwards where the Sabres have the biggest decisions to be made. Benoit Pouliot, Jordan Nolan, and Jacob Josefson should be gone and replaced by players from their AHL affiliate, the Rochester Americans, which should provide the team younger, faster talent at a low cost. Jack Eichel will be the top center and Casey Mittelstadt will likely join him down the middle. Kyle Okposo will definitely be back on the wing. Jason Pominville will likely be playing his final season. After that, the questions begin.

Let’s get Scott Wilson and Matt Moulson out of the way first. Wilson is a fine role player that played decent for Buffalo toward season’s end and the Sabres could bring him back or they could easily find another player just like him. If I was making the decision, I look for a player more skilled but wouldn’t be averse to keeping him around for another season. Many are speculating that Moulson could be bought out this offseason but to me that is just extending the pain. The team should just retain him for one more season, see if they can get anything out of him when the season opens and if not bury him in the minors to finish out his contract.

If you’ve read everything I’ve written until now, what I am about to discuss will probably not come as a surprise. I would re-sign Sam Reinhart to an eight-year contract because mathematically, it makes the most sense. According to Matt Cane’s (@Cane_Matt) prediction model, he has Sam Reinhart likely signing a two-year bridge deal, carrying an average annual value (AAV) of approximately $3.4M. The model predicts that an eight-year deal would have an AAV of approximately $5.14M.

Let’s assume that the Sabres will want to have Reinhart for eight additional years. If they don’t, they can always buy him out before he turns 25 for a cost of approximately $1.7M per year, if the contract aligns with Cane’s prediction model. Working off the Sabres’ desire to have Reinhart for a total of eight-years, some very simple present value (using a discount rate of 4.7%) brings us to the conclusion that the eight-year deal is a no-brainer. If the Sabres do go the bridge option (let’s assume two years plus six), Reinhart’s second contract would have to less than $5.8M for the cap hit in today’s dollars to be less than the present value of the contract with an AAV of $5.14M over eight years. Basically, the Sabres would have to think Reinhart is going to get worse over the next two years for the bridge option to make sense. If that is the case, the team shouldn’t even be looking to keep him.

Not only does it mathematically make sense, the team also has to be concerned over their future cap hits and unnecessarily allowing Reinhart’s cap hit to balloon would be very unwise. The only question is would the increase in cap hit be potentially worth it to have Reinhart for 10 years versus eight. Considering Reinhart will be 30 in eight years, having him under contract for an additional year or two might be regretted at that point as well. At some point, I will do a more elaborate analysis on this concept so please follow @afpanalytics on Twitter to see it when I do.

This leaves us with three forwards who have been regulars in the Sabres’ lineups the last few seasons, Zemgus Girgensons, Johan Larsson, and Ryan O’Reilly. I could see all three of them traded this offseason. The first two likely wouldn’t fetch much in terms of return but would open roster spots that could be filled with speedier players.

The Sabres’ biggest question this offseason will be what to do with Ryan O’Reilly. His end of season comments had no impact on what I would do if I were running the team. To me, the Sabres have to decide between O’Reilly and Reinhart. I clearly favor Reinhart. It is also likely that O’Reilly’s future role on the team is as a third-line center who plays special teams. You just can’t play $7.5M for a player to play that role. I also imagine O’Reilly packaged with McCabe would allow the Sabres to make a trade that would immediately improve their roster. I don’t think that package gets the team a top pair defenseman but it certainly could get them a high-end winger, which the team is severely lacking. I’m just spit-balling here: I wonder if a trade if a trade revolving around Ryan O’Reilly and Vladimir Tarasenko could make any sense. I think a trade where the Sabres include O’Reilly, McCabe, and a prospect not named Mittlelstadt or Guehle for Tarasenko could make some sense for both teams.

I don’t know if dipping heavily into the free agent pool would be a wise move for the Sabres. If I were to target any players for the team to add, I would look at Michael Grabner and David Perron who would provide the speed and depth scoring the team desires. James Neal and James van Riemsdyk are the type of high end scoring wingers this team needs but if they hit the open market, they will likely come at a long-term and high price tag, something the Sabres must avoid if they hope to have any sort of sustained success.

Please be sure to check in again tomorrow as we take an in-depth look (maybe not quite as deep) at the Ottawa Senators. If you enjoyed this review, please follow us on Twitter, @afpanalytics, and share it with your friends!

Stats have been pulled from NaturalStatTrick.com and Corsica.hockey. Salary info from Capfriendly.com

KYLE STICH is the Director of AFP Analytics.  In addition, Mr. Stich is a tax specialist and Director of Operations at AFP Consulting LLC, whose clientele include professional athletes performing services on three separate continents. Mr. Stich earned his Master of Science in Sport Management with a Concentration in Sport Analytics from Columbia University in 2017. He earned his undergraduate degrees in Accounting and Sport Management from St. John Fisher College in 2015, where he has served as an adjunct professor teaching Sport Finance and Baseball Analytics.