01 Nov
Friday Focus: November 1st
Welcome to the fifth edition of AFP Analytics’ Friday Focus section. In the Friday Focus post I hope to highlight some of the most interesting events from a numbers perspective during the past week in the NHL. If something catches my eye from other sports, I might mention it here as well. I am intending on this being more of a quick hitter type of read that I hope everyone enjoys. I would also invite any readers to shoot us questions (@afpanalytics) and we will try to answer them every week. In honor of Day of the Dead, today’s post is going to look at teams whose fans should already start mourning their 2019-2020 because they are likely dead. But first…
Last Week’s Players to Watch – Jason Zucker, Rasmus Ristolainen, Rasmus Dahlin
Last week I highlighted Jason Zucker, Rasmus Ristolainen, and Rasmus Dahlin. Zucker had been playing incredibly well during 5v5 play but had only managed one point in that time (and three power play points). I had not given any fantasy advice but I was strong in my belief that he would put up some points soon. If you read my column last week and heeded my advice, you are probably very happy as he had three points during 5v5 play and an additional power play point in the past week, doubling his total point output on the season.
The other players I highlighted were the Buffalo Sabres’ Rasmus Dahlin and Ristolainen. They both appeared on the list because they were trending in the wrong direction. I wondered if Dahlin could get back on track and whether Ristolainen would bounce back or settle into where he has always been, a player who struggles to control play during 5v5 hockey. The Sabres played two games (Detroit and Arizona) since the last post and Ristolainen got absolutely abused during 5v5 play. Both his Corsi For (CF)% and Expected Goals For (xGF)% were below 35% for both games. Those performances are absolutely brutal. It is not surprising that reports are surfacing that the team is more likely to trade Marco Scandella than Ristolainen because he will probably fetch better value, keeping in mind that value is relative. Dahlin had an ok week but still wasn’t at the level the team needs him at. His xGF% were below 50% in both games. I will be paying close attention to him this next week as the Sabres will only play four games in two weeks and two of those games will be in Dahlin’s home country of Sweden. I wonder if some rest and a trip back home will do him some good.
Last Week’s Game to Watch
In last week’s post, I highlighted Arizona at Buffalo. The game wasn’t the cleanest hockey game played but it was entertaining, especially the overtime period, which saw both teams have multiple quality chances at ending the game. The overtime serves as a perfect case for why the NHL should look to eliminate the shootout as it was such an anti-climactic ending to an interesting game. Buffalo hasn’t been playing as well recently and was significantly outplayed by Arizona during 5v5 play. They were lucky to get a point out of the game. Arizona has been playing incredibly well lately and is a team to watch out for.
In Honor of Day of The Dead…
With the old business out of the way, I will now move into which teams’ fans should begin mourning the death of their team’s season and which fans could see a miracle by Easter.
Ottawa Senators
Ottawa was actually decent to start the season with their CF% and xGF% hovering around or above 50% for much of October. Their performance metrics have quickly fallen to where everyone expected them to be coming into the start of the season. A team devoid of talent, with poor metrics, that starts and plays in a tough division has absolutely no chance of making the playoffs. This won’t come as news to most hockey fans but I of course have to include Ottawa here. The only question around Ottawa is whether or not they can finish with the best odds in the NHL for the draft lottery.
New Jersey Devils
I am not as confident in New Jersey’s season being dead as Ottawa but I don’t see how they overcome their slow start to the season, especially with a major decision looming on Taylor Hall. To be direct, I think New Jersey should be better than they are but their CF% and xGF% rank near the bottom of the league and being tied for the fewest points with Ottawa means something has to change and quickly if they hope to be an Easter miracle. I do not think New Jersey makes the playoffs and will have a critical decision to make when the trade deadline comes. Unless Hall has signed a new contract by the deadline, I think New Jersey has to trade him. They can’t afford to let him leave for nothing.
Detroit Red Wings
Detroit makes this list because they have mediocre numbers and a steep hill to climb to secure a playoff spot. Mainly they are on the list because there are six teams in the Atlantic Division who are better than them. It seems like Boston, Toronto, Tampa, Montreal, and Florida are clearly better teams and the Sabres have banked enough points to start the season while also playing decent hockey to make them a playoff contender as well. There is no chance Detroit overcomes those teams.
New York Rangers
New York has been the worst team in CF% and xGF% in the NHL. They have only managed to get 45% of their possible points. I expect the Rangers to improve but like Detroit, they may have too much ground to make up. Washington and Carolina are near locks in their division with Pittsburgh and Philadelphia as strong playoff contenders as well. When you combine those teams with the six teams in the Atlantic Division and a playoff spot seems near impossible. I think playoff teams will be happy the Rangers miss because I think they have too many new players who are taking too long to jell together. Later in the season, I could see them going on a too little, too late hot streak.
Chicago Blackhawks
I thought Chicago could have a chance to surprise this season. I liked the offseason additions they made and they still have Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews. However, they have been awful to start this season. They are fourth worst in the NHL in both CF% and xGF%, so I don’t think their poor start is undeserved. If they commit to Robin Lehner as their full-time starter, they might be able to go on a nice run but teams who get owned during 5v5 play can have moments but generally finish low in the standings. The one positive they have going for them is they are playing in a division where only three teams have started well and St. Louis’s numbers haven’t been overly inspiring. Their loss of Vladimir Tarasenko will hurt those numbers even more. However, Chicago will be hard pressed to overtake any of Colorado, Nashville, or St. Louis in their division and have to compete with six teams from the Pacific division who have gotten off to surprisingly strong starts. Speaking of the Pacific division…
San Jose Sharks
San Jose has terrible numbers during 5v5 play and haven’t gotten the points they need to stay competitive. They are probably the most talented team in this section on paper and because of that could overcome. However, the theme persists that they have dug themselves too big of a hole to overcome. If any team in this section is going to have an Easter miracle, it will likely be San Jose. They are most similar to last year’s St. Louis Blues.
Teams that Could Have an Easter Miracle – Los Angeles Kings & Minnesota Wild
Both the Kings and Wild have been off to a dreadful starts as far as points go. However, their numbers during 5v5 play have been surprisingly impressive. Minnesota has an even CF% and their xGF% is 53%. Those types of numbers are usually put up by playoff teams. Los Angeles is even stronger with a CF% of 51% and xGF% of 53%. I don’t think either team ends up in the playoffs but if I were going to make a longshot bet on a team, one of these two teams could be worth a shot.
Player to Watch
I am interested to see how the New York Rangers’ Filip Chytil performs after an incredibly strong performance in his season debut. Chytil should have started the season with the Rangers. Chytil wasn’t overly strong last season but was awesome in his debut against the Lightning, scoring a goal and posting a CF% of 57% and xGF% of 74%. Let’s see if he can keep that performance level up.
Game to Watch
An easy game to pick here would be tonight’s matchup of Washington vs Buffalo but I don’t think Sabre fans are going to enjoy the game too much. I also would keep an eye on Pittsburgh at Boston on Monday, Carolina at Philadelphia, Arizona at Calgary, and St. Louis at Vancouver on Tuesday, Vegas at Toronto and Washington at Florida on Thursday. However, my game of the week will be Colorado at Arizona on Saturday. I will continue to beat the drum for Arizona and Colorado has proven to be one of the more fun teams to watch this season. I am also interested to see they perform at a high level without Landeskog or Rantanen.
If you have any thoughts or would like to submit questions for next week’s Friday Focus, tweet us, @afpanalytics, or me, @k_sticher.
All data is courtesy of naturalstattrick.com and capfriendly.com
KYLE STICH is the Director of AFP Analytics. In addition, Mr. Stich is a tax specialist and Director of Operations at AFP Consulting LLC, whose clientele include professional athletes performing services on three separate continents. Mr. Stich earned his Master of Science in Sport Management with a Concentration in Sport Analytics from Columbia University in 2017. He earned his undergraduate degrees in Accounting and Sport Management from St. John Fisher College in 2015, where he has served as an adjunct professor teaching Sport Finance and Baseball Analytics.
25 Oct
Friday Focus: October 25th
Welcome to the third edition of AFP Analytics’ Friday Focus section. In the Friday Focus post I hope to highlight some of the most interesting events from a numbers perspective during the past week in the NHL. If something catches my eye from other sports, I might mention it here as well. I am intending on this being more of a quick hitter type of read that I hope everyone enjoys. I would also invite any readers to shoot us questions (@afpanalytics) and we will try to answer them every week. We are starting to get to the point where teams are playing enough games to have their data settle in. Teams certainly can have good or bad 10 game stretches but with most playing around that number, we begin to learn what the team are about.
Last Week’s Players to Watch – Oliver Wahlstrom
Last week I highlighted Oliver Wahlstrom because he had two strong games to start his NHL career but had not yet scored. This week saw him play two more decent games. Against the Blue Jackets on October 19th, the Islanders dominated the shot counter when he was on the ice but did not take many quality shots and allowed Columbus to take quality shots. Against the Coyotes last night, the Islanders and Coyotes split shots but the Islanders’ shots were of higher quality but did not see much ice time in the game. Wahlstrom’s numbers have remained strong and it is likely only a matter of time before he finally gets on the scoresheet and it will be well deserved.
Last Week’s Game to Watch
In last week’s post, I highlighted Colorado playing at Tampa Bay as the game to watch. Colorado dominated the score sheet and did so by taking higher quality shots than they allowed because Tampa Bay dominated the shot counter. Even though there are adjustments made for score state, which certainly apply in this 6-2 game, blowouts might skew things even more. Colorado’s underlying metrics weren’t great in this game but them getting a 6-2 win on no rest over the preseason Stanley Cup favorite is incredibly impressive. I do want to mention that Colorado’s loss of Mikko Rantanen cannot be understated. I’ll be interested to see how Colorado can hold up without him. If they can stay atop the Central Division until Rantanen returns, I would look at them as the possible Stanley Cup favorite.
What’s Up With the Minnesota Wild?
Last week, Jason Zucker publicly called out his team and even coach because the team has not been getting results. Wild fans predictably are upset. This past week, they were able to secure wins over Montreal and the still surging Oilers before being shut out by their division rival, Nashville Predators. The question is are they as bad as their points show or should we expect them to start performing better? Good news Wild fans, things should get better. The Wild have had decent underlying metrics with both their Corsi For (CF)% and expected goals for (xGF)% both above 50%. Teams with those underlying metrics should be in or very close to a playoff position. So why are the Wild bottom dwellers? The Wild have the worst 5v5 shooting percentage and the seventh worst save percentage for the league’s third worst PDO, which is the sum of those two percentages. Over the course of a season, most teams should regress toward a PDO of 1. The Wild are currently at .970. I will guarantee the team’s fortune will start to improve as long as they can maintain thei strong CF% and xGF%. These are the type of performances that traditionally get coaches fired and allow the subsequent replacement to excel. With a recent turnover in general manager (GM), I don’t want to speculate over Bruce Boudreau’s future because he is a good coach and it appears the team’s new GM, Bill Guerin, is willing to be patient. However, this slow start would also give Guerin an easy excuse to move on from Boudreau so he can eventually bring in “his own guy.” If I was in charge, I would stay the course.
Speaking of Zucker, I know many Wild fans were unhappy with him calling the team out because he hasn’t exactly been lighting up the scoresheet. However, the underlying metrics tell a different story. Yes Zucker has been on the ice for only two goals for and six against during 5v5 play but his CF% (54.26%) and xGF% (58.98%) have been awesome. The team has a .929 PDO while he has been on the ice during 5v5 play. I don’t usually give fantasy hockey advice but now might be the time to buy low on Zucker. He is going to start getting some points.
Watch Out for the Flyers and Coyotes
The Flyers have the best underlying metrics in the league with a CF% of 55% and xGF% of 60%. Those numbers are very similar to what the Hurricanes were posted at the beginning of last season before catching fire and making a run to the Eastern Conference Finals. The Flyers are getting decent results to start this season but aren’t in the top tier of the league just yet.The Coyotes also been on a tear lately as well. They are fourth in the league in CF% at 54% and second in xGF% at 58%. If you have been reading this column regularly, you will know that I think the Flyers and Coyotes will likely start winning more games as long as they continue to perform at this high level.
What Should we make of the Sabres?
The Sabres lead the league in points but recently lost to the lowly New York Rangers by a score of 6-2. Sabre fans are starting to get nervous after last season and it’s valid to wonder if they are going to fall to the same fate again. I think it is still a little premature to panic though they aren’t heading in a great direction. Their adjusted CF% and xGF% are both still above 50%, but barely. The loss to the Rangers isn’t surprising as the team was due for some regression as they had been winning some games they probably didn’t deserve. With more tape on how they are playing, teams seem to be adjusting to their aggressive, pressuring style of play. I still think the team will be ok, especially considering their division rivals haven’t got rolling yet either.
Fans of teams from around the league should keep a close eye on Buffalo as they are likely going to have to decide on their defense with Brandon Montour getting close to returning. I am just speculating here but I wonder if the team may consider playing seven defensemen and 11 forwards, especially considering most of the two defenders who are most likely to come out of the lineup, Marco Scandella and Henri Jokiharju, are playing the best. With Rasmus Dahlin struggling in his own zone, rolling seven defensemen would allow the team to use him more strategically for a few games to see if they can get him rolling again.
Player(s) to Watch
Previously I had highlighted players that have been playing well in this section. This week I am going to highlight three players who have been struggling by different standards. I earlier discussed Jason Zucker’s strong underlying 5v5 metrics but poor scoring results. I also predicted that he would soon start scoring. I will be keeping my eye on him to see if the results start to come. I also want to watch the Sabres’ two Rasmi (Rasmus Ristolainen and Rasmus Dahlin). Ristolainen had a strong start to the season but is quickly regressing back to where he has previously been: one of the worst possession players on the Buffalo Sabres. Rasmus Dahlin has had an interesting start to the season. He had 10 points through 10 games but seven of those have come on the Sabres’ lethal power play. Last season, Dahlin was a positive possession player on a negative possession team, which is phenomenal for a 18 year old defenseman. However, this season he has been below 50% on a better team. Too often he has also looked uncomfortable. Last night, he was leaving his feet far too often. Under no circumstances should he be a healthy scratch but maybe reducing his minutes or play at forward but using him more strategically would be smart for a few games. I also wonder if he is dealing with some injury that isn’t known about.
Game to Watch
Once again, there are some intriguing matchups this week. Tonight, we see Colorado at Vegas, which is certainly an intriguing matchup. On Saturday we see St. Louis return to Boston, Toronto at Montreal, and Nashville at Tampa. On Monday, we see Arizona at Buffalo. On Tuesday, there is Washington at Toronto and Philadelphia at Pittsburgh, which should be good more so because both are good hockey teams and not because of their rivalry. I am going to go off the book with this week’s pick and go with Arizona at Buffalo. Buffalo has been trending down but may still be at the top of the standings when the game takes place while Arizona has been trending upward. Buffalo needs a quality 5v5 performance and doing it against a strong Arizona team would be just what the doctor ordered to get them back on track.
If you have any thoughts or would like to submit questions for next week’s Friday Focus, tweet us, @afpanalytics, or me, @k_sticher.
All data is courtesy of naturalstattrick.com and capfriendly.com
KYLE STICH is the Director of AFP Analytics. In addition, Mr. Stich is a tax specialist and Director of Operations at AFP Consulting LLC, whose clientele include professional athletes performing services on three separate continents. Mr. Stich earned his Master of Science in Sport Management with a Concentration in Sport Analytics from Columbia University in 2017. He earned his undergraduate degrees in Accounting and Sport Management from St. John Fisher College in 2015, where he has served as an adjunct professor teaching Sport Finance and Baseball Analytics.
18 Oct
Friday Focus: October 18th
Welcome to the third edition of AFP Analytic’s Friday Focus section. In the Friday focus post I hope to highlight some of the most interesting events from a numbers perspective during the past week in the NHL. If something catches my eye from other sports, I might mention it here as well. I am intending on this being more of a quick hitter type of read that I hope everyone enjoys. I would also invite any readers to shoot us questions (@afpanalytics) and we will try to answer them every week. We are still early in the NHL season so we want to be careful to speak on definite terms but there are definitely some interesting trends developing that we need to keep an eye on.
Last Week’s Players to Watch – Travis Konecny; Sabres’ “LOG” Line
My first player to watch was Rasmus Sandin who went from having a stellar NHL debut to average results to the AHL, which was probably the right decision by the Maple Leafs organization. I was hoping appearing in the Player to Watch section was not a kiss of death for a player because we didn’t get off to a great start. Last week I stretched this section to include the Flyers’ Travis Konecny and the Sabres’ line of Kyle Okposo, Johan Larsson and Zemgus Girgensons, who have been dubbed the “LOG” line by some of Buffalo’s media. Travis Konecny has been able to maintain his strong start to the season. Through five games he is third in Corsi For (CF)% and second in expected Goals For (xGF)%. I have looked at adjusted metrics and did not include players who have not played every game for their team. The Flyers haven’t played as many games as most of the other teams in the league so it might be a little premature to gush too much over Konecny. However, I will continue to keep an eye on him because he is in a stage in his career where he is expected to start to take some major steps forward.
The Sabres’ LOG line has regressed some though Kyle Okposo has maintained his strong play. Last week I published this article on Friday afternoon and raved about the line as a whole. That evening against the Florida Panthers, the line accounted for both of the Sabres’ goals (the Sabres won 3-2 in a shootout). My prediction that they would soon be rewarded was correct. The line is still the best driver of possession for the first place Sabres but have been bitten by the regression bug. However, Okposo ranks directly behind Konency in both measures discussed above. The Sabres’ only lineup change of the season was replacing an injured Conor Sheary. With the success the team is having, it is not surprising to see them maintain status quo in their lineup but when they hit an inevitable rut, I would not be surprised to see the team try to use Okposo as a sparkplug for another line.
Last Week’s Game to Watch
In last week’s post, I highlighted Nashville playing at Vegas as the game to watch. I am pretty happy with my pick as Nashville was able to get a win they did not deserve but that is an important test for them. I am a strong believer in using numbers to tell a story but I also think it was important for Nashville to gain the confidence that comes along with beating a team they likely will have to go through if they hope to come out of the Western Conference. In the game the shots were basically equal during 5v5 play, when adjusting for score effects, but Vegas dominated in shot quality but could not finish.
Question from our followers:
This week is the first we will discuss a question from our followers. I would love to have this weekly post be guided by your questions as we move forward. I want to know what you are interested in hearing about.
Anyways, our first question comes from @PatrickSalmon1, who asks what my thoughts on the Islanders are to start the season and where they need to improve to have success going forward.
Let me start by saying the Islanders overachieved last season and I think they were lucky to have the success they did. I thoroughly expected them to drop off a cliff at any point. To my surprise, they were able to advance past Pittsburgh before losing to a far superior Carolina Hurricanes team. Last season the Islanders were sixth worse in controlling the shot counter but were slightly better than their opponents in generating quality. They were a well-coached team who did their best to make their goaltenders’ lives easier. They succeeded and were rewarded by incredible goaltending play. They were not the strongest offensive team but were able to score enough and at the right time to win plenty of games. Unless they dramatically improved their team in the offseason, if seemed like they would have trouble to repeat last season’s success. Their fall has probably been harder than they deserved but I fully expected the fall to happen, especially considering the offseason they had. Predicting goaltending performance year to year is unreliable but I am pretty comfortable in betting that Robin Lehner will have a stronger season than Semyon Varlamov. I think letting Lehner go in favor of Varlamov is negligence by Lou Lamoriello. Performance aside, I think there are intangible factors also in play because of the journey Lehner has been through. Additionally, Lamoriello putting all his eggs in the Panarin basket was a major problem. The Islanders desperately needed the offensive infusion that Panarin could have provided. Not having a plan B was an issue.
This season we see the Islanders rank last in CF% (42.36%) and third worst in xGF% (43%). The combination of those measures leads me to be pessimistic in them demonstrating any significant improvement in the standings. When looking at players’ individual performances, the picture does not get any better. They do not have a single player on their roster who has been on the ice for more shots for than against (when considering score adjustments). Oliver Wahlstrom and Noah Dobson have provided some offensive spark as they have produced quality xGF%. Wahlstrom is at 61% and Dobson at 54.54%. The first step the Islanders should take is to give Wahlstrom and Dobson more opportunities. I also wonder if the team wrote off Josh Ho-Sang too early. For a team that needs to drive more offense, Ho-Sang provides just that. When looking at the bigger picture, I worry about the path Lamoriello has set the Islanders on. He has committed significant dollars to Josh Bailey, Brock Nelson, Anders Lee, and Jordan Eberle. He will soon have to do the same for Mat Barzal. Good players deserve to be paid and I think all of the players I just listed are good players. However, with the exception of Barzal, all those forwards are probably on the wrong side of their aging curve and for a team that already lacks some speed, they are going to slow them down further. Additionally, I see them as quality second-line players but I am not convinced they are first-line players on a team that contends for a Stanley Cup. When looking at those forwards plus Leo Komarov and the previously mentioned Varlamov, we see Lamoriello has committed $31.5M to just those players.
If the Islanders want to turn the corner, they need to add some elite skill both at forward and defense. The best way to get this type of talent is to pick at the top of the draft. Unfortunately, the Islanders’ roster is likely too good to finish low enough to pick there without some lottery luck. I think they need a major speed infusion but also need to be patient. I really liked what Lamoriello did in his first offseason as Islanders’ GM but hated this past offseason. I know Islanders’ fans want to see their team succeed now but I think they are going to have to remain patient as their roster is going to need some major overhaul. Barry Trotz is a top coach who has probably already maximized the talent so a change there will not likely lead to immediate improvement either.
Looking at the bottom teams
We are starting to get closer to being able to be a little more definite in conclusions about teams but I still want to caution that there is time for things to change. Today, I want to highlight teams whose metrics indicate they may be overachieving and those that are probably going to stay toward the bottom of the standings.
Bad Teams Who are Bad
Once again, I want to reiterate it is still early in the season and teams can dramatically improve their play. However, poor CF% and xGF% are usually indicators that any sort of improvement in points without better metrics are probably unsustainable runs. Here we see the New York Rangers, New Jersey Devils, San Jose Sharks, and Chicago Blackhawks. These teams came into the season with various levels of expectations but they are all teams I expected to be in the playoff hunt for most of the season. San Jose was a popular pick to make a run in the West. The other three were teams that should have taken a step forward. Poor starts in the NHL can doom a team’s whole season, especially considering other bubble teams have gotten off to strong starts. Where I want to spend more time though is on the bad teams who are currently dressed as good teams.
Good Teams Who are Bad
Throughout a season, teams can have stretches where they can put together point streaks even when they get out played during 5v5 play. Here we see St. Louis, New York Islanders, Edmonton, and Boston. Last season, I correctly predicted the Sabres regression at the exact moment it happened. This year I am putting these four teams on early regression notice. Right now, I would consider Edmonton the most likely candidate as their scoring is mostly coming from one line and their CF% and xGF% metrics are poor.
Player(s) to Watch
This week I am interested to see if Oliver Wahlstrom can continue to be a strong offensive driver for the Islanders. He has not yet been on the ice for a goal for or goal against but has been expected to be on the ice for at least a goal. His numbers aren’t eye-popping but I am always interested to see how high draft perform in their early game action. As I discussed earlier, the Islanders struggle to drive offense and Wahlstrom appears to be one of the players who can do that.
Game to Watch
This week we get to see Boston and Toronto square off twice, which is sure to be a good matchup. We also get matchups of Washington at Edmonton and Pittsburgh at Tampa. However, the matchup I am most interested in this week is Colorado at Tampa, which is happening Saturday night. Tampa appears to have found their footing and Colorado is still the only team to not be defeated in regulation. Many people have been high on Colorado since the offseason but I am still not 100% sold on them. Their metrics haven’t been spectacular but they have beaten some good teams. Playing at Tampa will be a good measure for them.
If you have any thoughts or would like to submit questions for next week’s Friday Focus, tweet us, @afpanalytics, or me, @k_sticher.
All data is courtesy of naturalstattrick.com and capfriendly.com
KYLE STICH is the Director of AFP Analytics. In addition, Mr. Stich is a tax specialist and Director of Operations at AFP Consulting LLC, whose clientele include professional athletes performing services on three separate continents. Mr. Stich earned his Master of Science in Sport Management with a Concentration in Sport Analytics from Columbia University in 2017. He earned his undergraduate degrees in Accounting and Sport Management from St. John Fisher College in 2015, where he has served as an adjunct professor teaching Sport Finance and Baseball Analytics.
11 Oct
Friday Focus: October 11th
Welcome to the second edition of AFP Analytic’s Friday Focus section. In the Friday focus post I hope to highlight some of the most interesting events from a numbers perspective during the past week in the NHL. If something catches my eye from other sports, I might mention it here as well. I am intending on this being more of a quick hitter type of read that I hope everyone enjoys. I would also invite any readers to shoot us questions (@afpanalytics) and we will try to answer them every week. We are still early in the NHL season so we want to be careful to speak on definite terms but there are definitely some interesting trends developing that we need to keep an eye on.
Last Week’s Player to Watch – Rasmus Sandin
I previously raved about Rasmus Sandin’s NHL debut against the Ottawa Senators and noted that he is a player to keep an eye on to see if he could sustain his impressive play from his NHL debut. He has still been good but not elite. The Maple Leafs have not allowed a 5v5 goal while he has been on the ice but have also only scored one. The team has controlled the shot share at a 54% rate while basically breaking even in xGF%. Those numbers are perfectly acceptable for a bottom six defenseman but are not super exciting either.
Last Week’s Game to Watch
In last week’s post, I highlighted Tampa Bay-Carolina on Sunday as a game to watch. It did not turn out how I expected. Tampa Bay got absolutely throttled by the Hurricanes. They had no shots on goal in the second period. Carolina had a very nice 69% adjusted shot share and 71% xGF%. It is incredible that Tampa was able to take that game to overtime as they had no business being in the game with the numbers they posted. Again, it is early but Carolina, in my opinion, has announced they have arrived as a legitimate Stanley Cup contender. To me, this game says more about Carolina than it does Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay started slowly last season as well until storming to a historic regular season. But there has to be some concern because…
The Atlantic Division Looks to be a Gauntlet
Again, it is too early to press the panic button or plan the parade but the Atlantic Division is setting up to be absolutely brutal for its members. Ottawa seems like a lock to finish last based on their roster on paper though after having a strong game against St. Louis, they might be pesky enough to not be complete push overs and could sneak into seventh in the division but that would not be ideal for them. Their adjusted xGF% is actually a respectable 50%. Their adjusted CF% is not as strong at 46.58%. They are taking a quantity over quality approach in their defensive zone. They are allowing a high percentage of shots but their decent xGF% means they are likely not as strong in quality.
After Ottawa, things in the Atlantic get very interesting. Montreal and Florida have not gotten off to good starts. Their xGF%s, which is the best predictor of future success, are 45.22% and 41.85%, respectively. The next worst in the division is Toronto at 49%. Boston isn’t much further ahead at 50%. Tampa Bay vaulted themselves to 53.49%, which is tenth best in the NHL despite their dreadful performance against Carolina. The other top two Atlantic division teams in xGF% are two of the biggest surprises in the NHL. Detroit has the eighth best xGF% at 54.6% and the best team in the Atlantic and second best in the NHL is the Buffalo Sabres, who are sporting an impressive 59% xGF% through their first four games. Please keep in mind those are score adjusted numbers.
With Buffalo getting points in every game and Boston, Detroit, and Tampa getting points in three of four games, the early season struggles by Montreal and Florida must be highlighted. Montreal’s early season schedule hasn’t done them any favors, starting on the road against Carolina, Toronto, Buffalo before playing their home opener a night after a tough overtime loss to Buffalo. They at least get a few days of rest before they have to play the St. Louis Blues, the defending Stanley Cup Champions. I think Montreal is a good team on paper and I would expect to see both their underlying metrics and team point total tick upwards. However, the early season hole they find themselves in could be the difference at season’s end. Florida is in the same spot as Montreal as they played Tampa Bay twice and Carolina once. Getting one win out of those three games is commendable. I don’t like saying a team’s fourth game out of 82 is a must win but Florida losing to Buffalo tonight would not be good for the Panthers. Buffalo is likely to be one of the teams they will be directly competing with for a playoff spot and spotting them a seven-point lead might be a problem. It would also keep them in seventh place in the division so they would have to pass at least two Atlantic teams. Hockey fans, especially Sabre fans, will remember Buffalo got off to a fast start last year before choking down the stretch. Last season, their play seemed unsustainable based on how they were winning games. This season their metrics are strong enough that a regression is less likely. Again, it’s early but early season deficits are surprisingly difficult to overcome, especially for teams that were thought of as bubble teams at the beginning of the season.
What is up with San Jose?
San Jose was a popular pick to make a deep playoff run this season. The team lost Joe Pavelski but was able to maintain the rest of their core and now have a healthy Erik Karlsson. For a team that was only six wins from the Stanley Cup and decimated with injuries during the playoffs, it did not seem unreasonable to expect them to be strong once again this season. However, they could not have started worse. They started with two losses to Vegas, the first of which they were throttled (which we detailed last week). They have gotten better each game, even dominating against Nashville and finally got their first win in dominating fashion against Chicago last night, a game they almost had to win.
Although San Jose finally got a win, their underlying metrics are still a major cause for concern. They have just a 51% CF% and a very poor 46% xGF%. Those are both adjusted metrics. The Sharks are going to have to go on a run at some point because Vegas, Arizona, Anaheim, and Los Angeles all rank in the top half of the league in xGF%. Calgary has a decent xGF% and has banked some team points, while Edmonton has worse metrics than San Jose but has still managed to start 4-0. In what will likely be a tough Pacific division and an even tougher Western Conference, San Jose’s slow start has to be looked at critically.
Five Teams Remain Unbeaten
Heading into Friday’s action, we see five NHL teams, the Carolina Hurricanes, Colorado Avalanche, Edmonton Oilers, New York Rangers, and Philadelphia Flyers remain unbeaten but their performances could not be more different. Since New York and Philadelphia have only played two games, I do not want to discuss them further here because of a small sample. I have already touched on Carolina but I once again want to reiterate how impressive they have been early on. They rank fourth in xGF% (57%) and eighth in CF% (53%). As long as they continue to get adequate goaltending, they may want to hold off on scheduling any events in their arena for April and May. Colorado just had an impressive win over a good Bruins’ team, where they had a slight advantage in shots and broke even in xGF%. Their underlying numbers are very average. They were expected to be a top team coming into the season and have only played three games so I wouldn’t be surprised to see their numbers uptick slightly to match their results. Edmonton, the third unbeaten team, instill the least confidence. As previously mentioned, their numbers are not strong. They are the early candidate to be this year’s 2018 Buffalo Sabres, start hot and limp to the finish. Their underlying metrics during 5v5 play have to improve if they hope to make the playoffs.
Player(s) to Watch
Last week I highlighted Rasmus Sandin to see if he could continue his incredible play that he showed against Ottawa and I discussed the results above. This week I want to highlight Travis Konecny and the Buffalo Sabres’ “4th line.” Konecny is a player I have been high on since he was drafted. He has flashed moments of strong play but has not taken the next step in performance. However, he is still young and is playing his first season on a new long-term contract. Although it is still early (2 games), he has been on the ice for 35 shots for and only 13 against (73% CF%). His xGF% is an impressive 85.39%. He has also scored two goals.
The other players I would like to highlight are players that have often drawn the criticism of #SabresTwitter. I mentioned Kyle Okposo last week and want to once again highlight him and his line mates, Johan Larsson and Zemegus Girgensons. The three of them compose Buffalo’s “fourth line” but the trio has arguable been the best line in hockey, by advanced metrics, through the team’s first four games. Okposo ranks second, Girgensons fifth, and Larsson sixth, among players who have played at least ten minutes in xGF%. When it comes to CF%, Okposo is third, Girgensons ninth, and Larsson 16th. For three players who fans didn’t want to be on the opening night roster, they have been extremely steady and impressive. It would be nice to have some goals come from their strong play but for a team that played strong during 5v5 hockey in their first two games and dropped off in their second two their steady play has to be appreciated.
Game to Watch
Like last week, there are some strong contenders for the game to watch this week. On Monday, we have Colorado at Washington, Tuesday there is Tampa Bay at Montreal and Nashville at Vegas, Wednesday has Colorado at Pittsburgh and Toronto at Washington, while Thursday has Tampa Bay at Boston. Last week I highlighted a potential Eastern Conference Final matchup so this week I am going to go for the potential Western Conference Final matchup and go with Nashville at Vegas.
If you have any thoughts or would like to submit questions for next week’s Friday Focus, tweet us, @afpanalytics, or me, @k_sticher.
All data is courtesy of naturalstattrick.com and capfriendly.com
KYLE STICH is the Director of AFP Analytics. In addition, Mr. Stich is a tax specialist and Director of Operations at AFP Consulting LLC, whose clientele include professional athletes performing services on three separate continents. Mr. Stich earned his Master of Science in Sport Management with a Concentration in Sport Analytics from Columbia University in 2017. He earned his undergraduate degrees in Accounting and Sport Management from St. John Fisher College in 2015, where he has served as an adjunct professor teaching Sport Finance and Baseball Analytics.
04 Oct
Friday Focus: October 4th
In what I hope to become a weekly post (please forgive me if life or other work gets in the way the some weeks), I would like to welcome you to the first version of AFP Analytic’s Friday Focus section. In the Friday focus I hope to highlight some of the most interesting events from a numbers perspective during the past week in the NHL. If something catches my eye from other sports, I might mention it here as well. I am intending on this being more of a quick hitter type of read that I hope everyone enjoys. I would also invite any readers to shoot us questions (@afpanalytics) and we will try to answer them every week. With this being a short week in the NHL, this post will probably be the shortest for the foreseeable future. Without further ado, here are some things I found interesting this past week:
NHL Teams Reluctance to Put Waiver Claims on Players
Claiming players through waivers is not going to help you build a perennial playoff team but a few strategic claims could be the difference between making and missing the playoffs or winning versus losing a round in the playoffs. This week there were some interesting names on waivers that some teams should have thought long and hard about claiming. Ultimately, there were only two players claimed, the Winnipeg Jets claimed defenseman Carl Dahlstrom from Chicago and the Arizona Coyotes claimed goaltender Eric Comrie from the Jets. It makes sense that the Jets would put a waiver claim in for a defenseman but Dahlstrom seems like an odd choice. I would have preferred the Sabres’ Casey Nelson, whose has had slightly stronger numbers over the past three seasons. He also is right-handed, which would have provided more balance on the Jets’ blueline. Thomas Hickey is another defenseman who could have been an interesting option, though I don’t know if the Jets should have added his salary.
It isn’t a surprise to see Eric Comrie get claimed as he appears to have a bright future but by claiming him, the Coyotes now have four goalie who could provide respectable NHL minutes (Adin Hill, Darcy Kuempher, Antti Raanta). With many teams already having their NHL goaltending tandems set, it isn’t surprising that neither Pheonix Copley nor Casey DeSmith were claimed though they appear to be capable NHL goalies. Columbus is a team that probably should’ve considered one of the two.
Although I can’t say I’m surprised, I do find it interesting that not a single forward on waivers was claimed. Dan Sprong seemed like a very logical player for a team to claim. His inclusion on waivers looks incredibly bad for the Anaheim Ducks after they traded Marcus Pettersson for him. Pettersson is exceling in Pittsburgh while Anaheim’s blueline is lacking. Sprong is a quality young forward who would have provided an upgrade for most teams. I guarantee there will be teams that will trade for a worse forward later this season. The same can be said for Sven Baertschi and Nikolay Goldobin. The other interesting forward to clear was Josh Ho-Sang. Although his advanced metrics are fantastic, the intangibles around him has clearly scared teams off. Some team will trade for him and as long as everything works out off the ice, will likely end up with a steal.
Golden Knights and Sabres dominate
The Buffalo Sabres have been one of the worst teams in this decade while the Pittsburgh Penguins have been one of the best. Thursday night the Penguins hosted the Sabres who were playing their first game under their new coach, Ralph Kruger. Kruger has been hyped as a coach but I would’ve expected the team to struggle playing in a new system against a top team while on the road. The Penguins were the team who looked lost. Teams regularly play good and bad teams but the Penguins were absolutely dominated by the Sabres. A few numbers from that game to consider:
- The Sabres had an adjusted Corsi For% of 62.52%
- The Sabres had an adjusted expected goals for% (xGF%) of 76.43% propelled by having a scoring chance for% of 71%
- No Sabre had an unadjusted Corsi For% or xGF% under 50% so at no point did the Penguins control play
- The Sabres’ best player was Kyle Okposo with a CF% of 77% and xGF% of 86.91%. He also had the highest individual expected goals.
One game is too small to draw definite conclusions but this win by Buffalo was incredibly impressive and Sabre fans have to hope they can continue to play at this level. The other question to ponder is maybe Pittsburgh isn’t as good as expected. Again, too small of a sample to say anything definite but Pittsburgh could not have started worse.
I think the Sharks are a better team than Pittsburgh, though Erik Karlsson’s late scratch certainly hurt, but the beatdown Vegas put on San Jose was impressive. If there were any questions about Vegas coming into the season, the team came out and looked to show they are an absolute force once again. Their numbers in the game looked very similar to what Buffalo had against Pittsburgh. Jonathan Marchessault had an insane 81.48% CF% and 95.32% xGF%. Though it is early, that may end up being the most dominant performance for the entire season. San Jose did nothing while Marchessault was on the ice. Vegas does have to be concerned about Nate Schmidt’s injury that appears to be serious enough to keep him out weeks. The biggest concern for Vegas coming into the season had to be their depth on the blue line. Losing one of their best, if not the best, defensemen might give the team some difficulty. If a depth defenseman finds their way on waivers in the next week or so, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Vegas put in a claim. They could also trade a late round pick for one.
Player to Watch
Rasmus Sandin had an amazing debut for the Toronto Maple Leafs. Of course, that debut came against the Ottawa Senators who seem destined for last place this season and may approach some of the futility records of recent years. In his debut, Sandin skated just under 9 minutes while posting an adjusted CF% of 69.23% and a ridiculous 96.36 adjusted xGF%. I will be keeping my eye on his performance to see if he will continue perform at a high level or if his numbers were propped up by playing the lowly Senators.
Game to Watch
I am definitely intrigued by the Golden Knights-Sharks rematch tonight and the Lightning visit Toronto next Thursday in what should be a tremendous game. However, the most intriguing game for me this week Tampa Bay at Carolina. Once the playoffs roll around, I think there is a good chance these two teams will be the favorites to meet in the Eastern Conference Finals. Both teams play a fun style of hockey as well. It is unfortunate that they are playing on a NFL Sunday and won’t draw as many eyes as it should.
If you have any thoughts or would like to submit questions for next week’s Friday Focus, tweet us, @afpanalytics, or me, @k_sticher.
All data is courtesy of naturalstattrick.com and capfriendly.com
KYLE STICH is the Director of AFP Analytics. In addition, Mr. Stich is a tax specialist and Director of Operations at AFP Consulting LLC, whose clientele include professional athletes performing services on three separate continents. Mr. Stich earned his Master of Science in Sport Management with a Concentration in Sport Analytics from Columbia University in 2017. He earned his undergraduate degrees in Accounting and Sport Management from St. John Fisher College in 2015, where he has served as an adjunct professor teaching Sport Finance and Baseball Analytics.
25 Sep
The Curious Case of Rasmus Ristolainen: What is his value?
We previously wrote an article series (part 1 & part 2) looking at the Buffalo Sabres and their logjam on defense. We concluded that the Sabres best option would involve a trade of Rasmus Ristolainen. In the second part of the article series, we looked at nine teams that could have varying degrees of interest in the 24-year-old, right-handed defenseman. There was one burning question that remained, what is Rasmus Ristolainen’s value and why would the Sabres trade him. In this article, I will do my best to provide an unbiased assessment of Ristolainen’s play to help answer those questions. As the regular season quickly approaches, it is critical the Sabres make the smartest lineup decisions to give them a chance to get off to a good start.
Last season, there were nine defensemen who were under the age of 26 and had a cap hit between $5M and $6M on a long-term contract for next season. These players will demonstrate what level of play the Sabres should expect out of Ristolainen and can be found in the table below.
Comparing Player Performance
The first step I want to take is to look at Ristolainen’s performance compared to these other players as that provides us an insight into what level of play similar players provide. The question I want you to continue asking yourself as you work your way through each section of the article is would you be willing to trade one of these players in a one for one trade from both teams’ perspective. If your answer to that question is a resounding no, the player is not performing at the expected level.
To assess these players’ performance, I am going to focus on three “underlying metrics,” their scoring metrics, and then any other individual metrics that I see as relevant. I will focus on the previous three seasons for each player and only look at their play during 5v5 play. Please note that all statistics have been sourced from NaturalStatTrick.com As I work my way through the performance analysis, I will explain what metrics I am using, why I think they are important, and what they are telling us about the player.
“Underlying Metrics”
I will start with metrics that are most predictive of team success. Here, I will look at Corsi For% (CF%) Relative (Rel), Goals For% (GF%) Rel, and Expected Goals For% (xGF%) Rel. For each metric, I will also include their components (For and Against) so we can understand why a player is performing how they are. Let me start by explaining why I am using Relative metrics. Relative metrics are a way to look at players on a more equal scale. It will be much easier for a player to have a 50% GF% on a team that has a 55% GF% than it would be to have a 50% GF% on a team with a GF% of 45%. To put things in simpler terms, it would be easier for a player to have had a positive goal differential while playing for the 2018-2019 Tampa Bay Lightning compared to playing for the 2018-2019 Ottawa Senators. The relative metrics are looking at how much better the team performed with the player on the ice versus when he was off the ice. A relative metric near
The first metric I will look at is Corsi. Corsi is measuring every time a shot is taken, whether it be on goal or toward goal. I prefer to refer to Corsi as shots and traditional shots as shots on goal. From here on, I will interchangeably use Corsi and shots to refer to the same thing. I will always refer to shots on goal as just that. This is the logic used in soccer and there is no reason to not apply the same in hockey.
Now that I have established what Corsi is, I will explain why it is important. With no easily accessible time of possession tracking, Corsi gives us the best ability to estimate who is consistently playing in their offensive zone and who is consistently playing in their defensive zone. If your team is taking more shots against your opponent while you are on the ice, your team has to be playing in the offensive zone. If your opponent is taking more shots, you are spending more time in the defensive zone. There are flaws with the metric, namely, you are influenced by the teammates you are playing with and the situation you are playing in. However, over the course of a season and certainly multiple seasons, most of these concerns will tease themselves out. Let’s take a look, starting with the 2016-2017 season. Remember that for the orange bar, representing shots against, the lower the number is better.
When looking at the 2016-2017 season, we see that the Sabres got absolutely caved in when Ristolainen was on the ice. Some of these other players hurt their teams’ performance but none as negatively as Ristolainen. It might be acceptable to see decent shot generation while getting shelled in his own zone because that would lead me to believe that with more favorable deployment he could be effective. One of the arguments in Ristolainen’s favor has always been he had been saddled with terrible partners for many of his early years in Buffalo. In 2016, Ristolainen played the most minutes with Jake McCabe followed by Josh Gorges and Dmitry Kulikov. The latter two defenders are definitely not possession drivers and McCabe is not a defender known for driving play himself either so on the surface it is not surprising to see the Sabres’ numbers worse when Ristolainen was on the ice considering who he had to play with. However, a deeper dive into the pairings show that each defender was actually BETTER when away from Ristolainen. Ristolainen was the one dragging their play down. That should not happen. However, I would not want to draw conclusions based off of one season. Let’s look at the 2017-2018 season next, which was kinder to Ristolainen.
During the 2017-2018 season, Ristolainen showed signs of being passable. The Sabres saw a very slight uptick in play when Ristolainen was on the ice versus when he was off. Considering they were
We now see three straight years where Ristolainen’s team gave up significantly more shots when he was on the ice versus when he was off. This is the first year in which he was not the weakest of our comparable group in this area, though Morgan Rielly was so strong offensively that he virtually canceled out the team’s poor performance in their own end when he was on the ice. We do not want to draw absolute conclusions based on one metric but as things stand now, I would say Ristolainen is not performing at the level he should. I would have a hard time envisioning any of the teams of these other players trading one of them one for one for Ristolainen. One of the questions the team would have to consider is if they are selling low. With just looking at one metric, last offseason would have been the best one to trade Ristolainen.
The next metric I will assess is GF% Rel. This metric is very straightforward. It is looking at whether or not your team is outscoring the opponent’s team while a player is on the ice. Keep in mind the relative aspect, which will show whether your team’s goal differential is getting better or worse while the player in on the ice. The positive of this metric is it is indicating actual outcomes. To win games, you have to outscore the opponent and that is what this metric measures. The negative of this metric is it is highly reliable on outcomes outside of a player’s control, namely the goaltending, both for and against. Save percentage is incredibly inconsistent from season to season and tremendous luck is involved. With the goal of any player analysis to be to isolate individual skill, we need to look beyond GF% to accomplish that. However, I still want to present the GF% Rel and its components because it will help us tell the most complete story about a player. I will again start by looking at the 2016-2017 season.
In 2016, we see that the Sabres were slightly better in goal differential when Ristolainen was on the ice versus off. He slotted in the middle of the comparison group for this season. As I discussed above, this is not a metric that I want to put a ton of stock in but one of the positive takeaways here is despite getting shelled by shots when Ristolainen was on the ice, the actual results were actually ok. Let’s move on to the 2017-2018 season.
Above, we see another moderately strong performance from Ristolainen, which better follows his shot metrics. Once again, we see Ristolainen slotting favorably among the comparison group. Ristolainen’s strong performance in two out of two seasons is a good trend but as we move to the most recent season, we will see a very concerning outcome.
Last season, Ristolainen performed the worst among the comparison group. Because of the
The final metric I will present in this section is xGF%, which is a more theoretical measure that does a fantastic job of speaking to an individual’s independent skill. Not only does it provide a strong individualized look at a player, it strongly correlates to team success. Every shot has many different factors, such as distance,
The Sabres were the fourth-worst team in expected goals during the 2016 season at 47.44% and the team was more than 2% worse when Ristolainen was on the ice. That is brutal. The other players who had negative results in 2016 played on teams that had xGF% above 50% so they were not playing at the same level as their teammates on a good team while Ristolainen made one of the worst teams in the league significantly worse. Though it is just one season, that is not a ringing endorsement for Ristolainen. Let’s move on to 2017 next.
The good news in 2017 is Ristolainen slightly improved his team’s performance. The bad news is the Sabres had the worst xGF% in the league at 46.17%. In simple terms, Ristolainen barely moved the needle in a positive direction on the league’s worst team. He was replaceable on the worst team in the league. After two seasons, there are only three players (Dumba, Theodore, and Rielly) who could be thought of in the same tier as Ristolainen. We will look to 2018 to see if the same players appear again in the bottom.
In 2018 we see some much different results than the previous two seasons. The only two players who remain near even or negative for the three seasons we looked at are Morgan Rielly and Rasmus Ristolainen. It’s interesting that the strong performers from previous years were weak this year and some of the weak ones (Dumba and Theordore) were much stronger. In the last three years, the only player we could argue as being close performance wise, based off the relative metrics I have discussed here, to Ristolainen is Rielly.
Individual Metrics
Now that I have been through the relative metrics I want to turn your attention to some individual metrics. We will start with individual scoring and touch on some other metrics that speak to some of the other impacts the players have when they are on the ice. For some brevity, I will not go into as much depth as I did for the above metrics, mostly because these metrics are going to be more familiar to all hockey fans. I will emphasize that I will present all of these metrics as per 60 metrics so the players are compared on an equal scale. Using per 60 metrics looks at how each player would perform if they each played 60 minutes. If a player averages a goal per 60 minutes and each game played 20 minutes, we would expect them to score a goal every three games.
Scoring Metrics
Here we will look at goals, assists, and total points. When looking at defensemen, I do not like breaking assists into primary versus secondary even though the math behind it indicates we should. Primary assists are more repeatable from season to season because there is more skill involved. Players directly setting up goals have much more control over the outcome rather than relying on another player to do it for you. However, one of a defenseman’s main jobs is to make stretch passes to move the puck out of the zone. In a perfect sequence, a defender makes a stretch pass to trigger an odd
One way to overlook some of Rasmus Ristolainen’s defensive deficiencies would be if he was contributing to more goals than his counterparts. Ristolainen has been a good point producer on the power play but when we look at his point production compared to the other comparable players, it is lacking. Out of the three seasons I have presented, this past season is the only one where we see Ristolainen’s 5v5 point production not be the worst of the sample. With the emergence of Rasmus Dahlin and the additions of Collin Miller and Brandon Montour, Ristolainen may struggle to get significant
Points are not everything to a player but it would be easier to overlook relatively average production if Ristolainen offset his point production with quality underlying metrics but that is not the case. I would also be more willing to overlook his poor relative metrics if he produced points at a high rate. This is where I think Morgan Reilly separates himself. So far, we have not seen Ristolainen perform well compared to the other players in our sample. I will present two more set of graphs to look at some other measures that could speak to how Ristolainen has performed.
Impact Metrics
In this next section, we will take a look at how the players performed in giveaways, takeaways, penalties
In these graphs we see Ristolainen show well in puck responsibility, which I have to admit surprises me a little. My gut reaction is many of Ristolainen’s possession struggles come from poor puck management. When looking at his numbers though, giveaways are one of the areas he performs stronger than the other players in this sample. Maybe he benefits from generous off-ice officials in Buffalo that don’t penalize him as much or his struggles come from other poor decision-making. Another possible explanation for his poor underlying metrics is his inability to take the puck away. When watching Ristolainen, I often see him giving up zone entries far too easily. Too often he will back away from the opposing attacker when they reach the blueline. Plays through the neutral zone and zone entries are the most opportune time for defenders to record takeaways. Another way that defenders can record turnovers is by physically bullying players off the puck. Ristolainen should excel at this.
The other metrics I presented in this section relate to penalties, both taken and drawn. Considering Ristolainen plays a very physical and aggressive style of play, he compares well in penalties taken. Based off the comparable players, I expected Ristolainen to rank near the top in penalties taken in every season. Instead, he is very much in the middle. One thing many supporters of Ristolainen like to point to is he does a good job of getting under opposing players’ skin. In the future there may be some ways to better quantify that sentiment but for now I will look at penalties drawn. This is obviously not perfect and I must acknowledge that currently much of that impact is intangible. However, I do think supporters who use that argument need to use it a little less enthusiastically. In 2017, Ristolainen finished near the top of the group in penalties drawn. However, in the other two seasons he was bottom two. If he was truly getting under players’ skin, he should be drawing more penalties. Too often I have seen Ristolainen pestering an opponent while also taking himself out of the play and not getting a penalty out of it. I want to see Ristolainen draw more penalties since it would help make up for some of his poor underlying metrics.
In this section, we don’t see anything that moves the needle either for or against Ristolainen. With his poor underlying metrics, I would like to see him provide some other contributions that can help his team during 5v5 play. At this point, I am still searching for that area of his game.
Physicality Metrics
One reason many NHL observers like Ristolainen is he plays with an edge and is a grit and grind player. In this final section of metrics, I will present statistics to assess that and discuss what they mean for Ristolainen as a player. Here, we will look at blocked shots, hits given, and hits taken. All of these are once again per 60 minutes and during 5v5 play. Please keep in mind that hits, like takeaways and giveaways, are a subjective statistic. I will once again present the three graphs and then move into my commentary.
It should come as no surprise that we see Ristolainen as the player who delivers the most hits. He also takes his fair share of hits. However, there is a downward trend in the number of shots he has blocked. If I am being blunt, performing well in any of these measures don’t really positively impact the team’s ability to win games. Ristolainen’s play style is definitely more physical but one reason he is able to deliver so many hits is
Conclusion
The Buffalo Sabres have a decision to make on Rasmus Ristolainen and it could be directly tied to Dustin Byfuglien’s decision in Winnipeg. Back in
Carolina’s trade of Justin Faulk has a direct impact on Ristolainen. Ristolainen is now the most desirable right-handed defenseman that is likely available. The trade of Faulk also sets a baseline for what a potential Ristolainen trade could look like. I think Ristolainen likely has a higher trade value than Faulk and the Sabres, in my opinion, would need to achieve that to go through with a trade. I also don’t think the Sabres have to get a roster player, especially if it is a player like Joel Edmundson. The team does not need another “throw-in” type player in a trade. If anything, they need to be the ones “throwing” a player in. Faulk has been a better defenseman in recent years but Ristolainen’s age and contract status should make him the more valuable asset.
The obvious trade would be to use Ristolainen as a way to upgrade the forward group. Kase or one of Winnipeg’s young forwards would do just that. However, there is another option that might not be as popular among Sabre fans but I think could be a wise move. Dylan Cozens appears to be a good, young forward prospect. However, after trading Alex Nylander and likely promoting Victor Olofsson, the team is suddenly devoid of forwards, especially wingers with high offensive upside. Tage Thompson looks to be the closest to fit that description and he is far from a sure thing. Using Ristolainen to fill that void might be a better decision than many fans might believe. Even though the team does not have tons of future money committed, there are some upcoming contracts (Dahlin, Reinhart, Montour) that could see their future cap space disappear quickly. If the team could move Ristolainen’s entire salary, while getting a cost-controlled forward who could contribute in a year or two, could turn out to be the smarter long-term move.
So, what should Sabre fans want them to do? If you’ve read my analysis, I think I have painted a pretty clear picture of the impact Ristolainen has on the Sabres and how he compares to other defensemen around a similar age, being paid a similar amount. I don’t think he compares well. For the age Ristolainen is and the cap hit he commands, the Sabres could better allocate their resources. They could flip Ristolainen for a forward that could have an immediate impact and make it a cap neutral move. The team also could flip Ristolainen for future assets at some point to clear additional cap space that the team may need.
Having said that, do I think Ristolainen is a worthless asset? No, I don’t. Ristolainen’s ideal role is probably as a second-pair defenseman who could drive a team’s power play and see minimal penalty kill minutes. Ristolainen will provide the most value to a team as a powerplay driver. The opportunity to do that in Buffalo should be gone. Rasmus Dahlin should be the defenseman with the Sabres’ top unit and Miller, Montour, and Ristolainen should compete for time on the second unit. There is no denying that Ristolainen has been put in some tough situations in Buffalo and he has handled everything well. However, if he was going to become a true top pair defender, he should be improving his team’s play while he is on the ice by now. Dahlin did so as an 18-year-old.
Maybe Ralph Kruger will finally be the coach Ristolainen needs to channel his physical gifts and make him a quality NHL defenseman. If I’m in the Sabres’ front office, I wouldn’t hold my breath on this happening. This offseason might have been a bad time to trade him because he had a brutal end to the season and the team likely would have been selling low. The best outcome for the Sabres could be Ristolainen getting off to a good start while a team like Winnipeg gets off to a slow start and realizes they have a need for a player like Ristolainen.
If you have thoughts on this article, tweet us, @afpanalytics, or me, @k_sticher with your thoughts, comments, questions. If you enjoyed this article, please give us a follow as we will try to produce some quality content as the hockey season arrives. Finally, it is my hope to do a follow-up to this article that includes some video clips. I can’t promise that it will come any time soon or if at all.
All stats are courtesy of naturalstattrick.com and contract data is from capfriendly.com.
KYLE STICH is the Director of AFP Analytics. In addition, Mr. Stich is a tax specialist and Director of Operations at AFP Consulting LLC, whose clientele include professional athletes performing services on three separate continents. Mr. Stich earned his Master of Science in Sport Management with a Concentration in Sport Analytics from Columbia University in 2017. He earned his undergraduate degrees in Accounting and Sport Management from St. John Fisher College in 2015, where he has served as an adjunct professor teaching Sport Finance and Baseball Analytics.
23 Jul
Who Will Surprise During the 2019-2020 Season? – Part 2: Eastern Conference
Each year, there are players throughout the NHL who seem to come out of nowhere. Jonathan Marchessault is a recent case of a player taking an unexpected step towards stardom. For the upcoming 2019-2020 season, I have taken an in-depth look throughout the league and have identified nine players in each conference who are most likely to be the next Marchessault. Each conference’s group of nine players has been broken into three groups based on their likeliness to exceed expectations next season: probable, coin flip, and possible. These groups represent what I believe to be the likelihood that each player breaks out like Marchessault. I did not want to have this centered on one team more than another, so I avoided picking multiple players from the same team.
This process is not as simple as looking at how many points someone has scored. While that may have some importance, there are many other underlying statistics that can provide a hint as to who may be able to take the next step forward. Other than total points (goals and assists) and TOI (time on ice), I will look specifically at 5v5 statistics (provided by naturalstattrick.com) for each player, as that helps take away any influence by “unfair” situations like the power play and penalty kill. Those situations tend to inflate the numbers of players. Looking at 5v5 ultimately tells us how well the player performed in the basic game of hockey. The analysis of each chosen player will involve the consideration of these statistics, as well as the overall situation and circumstance that they find themselves in. The age listed with the player is the age that they will play the majority of the 2019-2020 season as. I have tried to look at players who were not high draft picks as these players are expected to take a step forward. Instead, the goal was to identify some under the radar players.
Probable:
Marcus Pettersson, 23, LD, Pittsburgh Penguins
Marcus Pettersson is a player who might be a stretch for this list because it may not be such a huge surprise if he takes the next step. However, his small sample size in the NHL lands him on this list. A former second-round pick of the Anaheim Ducks, the left-handed defenseman did not impress enough in Anaheim to earn a spot on their roster for the long-term. Just this past season, the Ducks traded him to the Penguins after just 27 games in exchange for
Moving into the 2019-2020 season, Pettersson should have an opportunity to continue his success with Pittsburgh. The Penguins have Kris Letang, Justin Schultz, and Brian Dumoulin locked into their top two defensive pairs. That leaves one spot for the likes of Pettersson, Jack Johnson, and Erik Gudbranson. Assuming Pettersson can return this upcoming season at the same level he left off on, He should have no problem securing the last spot in the top four. Currently, he is an unsigned RFA and the Penguins are just about out of cap space. This is certainly a situation to watch. Assuming the contract situation gets resolved, Pettersson is in a prime spot to have a great season on the Penguins’ blueline.
Christian Wolanin, 24, LD, Ottawa Senators
Wolanin, a fourth round pick in 2015, had a great first full pro year this past season. He did very well in the AHL, producing 31 points (seven goals, 24 assists) in 40 games as a defenseman. That play earned him a call up to the Senators. He saw 30 NHL games, producing four goals and eight assists for 12 points. His underlying numbers impressed too. He had a CF% of 45.92% and while that is not good, his relative CF% was 2.50%. He was playing for the worst team in hockey. He made the team better in relation to his teammates. After being a very productive AHL defenseman and showing he belonged in the NHL on the Senators in just one professional season, Wolanin is in a prime position to take a step forward.
For a young defenseman looking for an opportunity at a bigger role, there may not be a better team to be on than the Senators. While you might struggle to win some games, there are a lot of open spots on defense. Thomas Chabot is locked into the top pair, while Dylan DeMelo most likely has a top four spot. That leaves two top four spots up for grabs. Christian Jaros, another young defenseman, could definitely be given a shot. There are also veterans Nikita Zaitsev, Ron Hainsey, and Mark Borowiecki who are looking for that type of role. However, none of these defenseman are sure locks for a top four spot. Ideally, they would all be playing bottom pair minutes. If Wolanin can continue at the level he is at, or take another step forward, he could have a 2019-2020 season that puts him on the map for a long-term spot on Ottawa’s blueline.
Oskar Lindblom, 23, LW, Philadelphia Flyers
The 2015 fifth-round pick had his first North American hockey season in 2017-2018. He spent most of the year in the AHL, producing 16 goals and 18 assists for 34 points in 54 games. That same season, he did see 23 games in the NHL. However, he was not as productive. He had two goals and four assists for six points in 23 games. This first season was enough for the Flyers to give Lindblom a shot the following season. In the 2018-2019 season, Linblom played in 81 games for the team. He did fairly well in a third-line role, posting 17 goals and 16 assists for 33 points. Not only was he productive in his role from a scoring standpoint, but his underlying numbers were also good. He had a 50.99% CF%. His relative CF% was 3.40%. Lindblom brought a good two-way game to the Flyers third line. His presence on the ice made the Flyers a better team. Entering the upcoming season at just age 23, Lindblom is in a prime position to take another step and provide the type of value that a top six winger would.
The situation in Philadelphia may lead to Lindblom being stuck on the third line for another season. Down the middle, the Flyers will most likely have Sean Couturier, Kevin Hayes, Nolan Patrick, and Scott Laughton. There are four spots on the wing in the top six. Those spots will most likely belong to Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek, James van
Coin Flip:
Denis Malgin, 22, C/RW, Florida Panthers
Malgin has played in three seasons for the Panthers. However, he has played just over half of the games in each season. The past two seasons may be the most important for the progression of Malgin’s career. In the 2017-2018 season, Malgin played in 51 games and had 11 goals and 11 assists for 22 points. He had a CF% of 50.94%, with a relative CF% of 2.02%. The next season, in 50 games, Malgin produced only seven goals and nine assists for 16 points. While his production fell slightly, his underlying statistics were very similar. He had a CF% of 51.40% and a relative CF% of 2.45%. Each season, he ultimately was a serviceable player on the ice, and he made his team better when he was playing. The decline in points wasn’t huge, so it shouldn’t cause too much concern for the team when evaluating what type of player Malgin can be.
For the Panthers, two forwards may be going back and forth between the second and third line: Brett Connolly and Frank Vatrano. However, if Malgin can take another step and start producing points more regularly, he could push for that last spot on the second line. The attention will most likely be on those other two forwards, but the fact that there will be some competition there means there is an opportunity. At worst, Malgin should be battling for a third-line role, which would be an improvement on his fourth-line role this past season. There should be a spot on the wing and at
Jesper Bratt, 21, LW/RW, New Jersey Devils
Bratt, a sixth-round pick in 2016, burst onto the scene during the 2017-2018 season that saw the Devils all of a sudden look like a very impressive team. The rookie Bratt contributed to that, as he produced 13 goals and 22 assists for 35 points in 74 games. However, Bratt seemed to have a bit of a sophomore slump in the 2018-2019 season. He only made it into 51 games due to injury. In those games, he was able to get close to his previous point total. He had eight goals and 25 assists for 33 points. His CF%
Bratt is in a good situation in New Jersey. Taylor Hall, Kyle Palmieri, and Wayne Simmonds will most likely take three of the four wing spots in the top six. That leaves one spot open and there is not a clear option to take it. Along with Bratt, the Devils will have Miles Wood and Blake Coleman fighting for that spot. If Bratt can return to the form he s, he should be able to secure that last spot on the wing in the top six. The opportunity is certainly there for Jesper Bratt to take another step and breakout this upcoming season.
Peter Cehlarik, 24, LW/RW, Boston Bruins
A bit of time has gone by since Cehlarik was a third-round draft pick in the 2013 draft. Throughout the past three seasons, he has become a decent AHL forward. He had 38 points (20 goals, 18 assists) in 49 games during the 2016-2017 season, while the 2017-2018 season saw him produce 23 points (11 goals, 12 assists) in 35 games. in the 2018-2019 season, he had 38 points (12 goals, 26 assists) in 53 games. He also saw his longest NHL look this past season. In 20 games as a fourth-line forward, he had four goals and two assists for six points. The advanced statistics on Cehlarik paint a bright picture in those 20 games. His CF% was 59.50%. While that could be attributed to the fact that he was on a great Bruins team, his relative CF% of 6.69% shows that he made the team better when he was on the ice. While it is a small sample size, it is the type of production that you want to see from young forwards when
While Cehlarik showed he may be ready for a shot at an NHL role, the team has quite the forward group. There are 13 other NHL forwards who Cehlarik will have to fight with for a roster spot, and that doesn’t consider any prospects. While Cehlarik may be able to beat out players like Par Lindholm and Chris Wagner, it may be tough to find anything more than a fourth-line role. While he may be ready to make the jump to the NHL and excel, the roster logjam at the forward position hinders the likelihood that it actually happens. If he were available in a trade, he could be a
Possible:
Evan Rodrigues, 26, C/LW, Buffalo Sabres
The Sabres should be loving that Rodrigues has been the type of player he is considering he was an undrafted free agent. Other than Jeff Skinner, Jack Eichel, and Sam Reinhart, there is a case to be made that Rodrigues is the fourth-best forward on the Sabres’ roster. This past season, he saw time from the fourth-line to the first-line and he played well in whatever role he was asked to play. While he had only nine goals and 20 assists in 74 games, it is important to note that he was often playing with teammates like Vladimir Sobotka, Johan Larsson, and Zemgus Girgensons. None of those players had a positive impact offensively on the team. Rodrigues has good underlying numbers. His CF% was 51.59%, and he posted a relative CF% of 2.26%. The team was better when he was on the ice. The ability is there for Rodrigues to take another step and become a strong two-way player who can produce around 40 points. He has proven he has the ability to fill in on the top forward lines. He is anything but a liability on the ice.
Rodrigues has been a good fill-in option in the top six. While it’s possible he takes another step, he is most likely that player who is a great third-liner who doesn’t look out of place on higher lines. Skinner, Eichel, Reinhart, and Marcus Johansson are locked into the top six. Chances are, players like Victor Olofsson, Conor Sheary, Jimmy Vesey, and Casey Mittelstadt will be given a shot in higher roles before Rodrigues. While Rodrigues should improve, it is likely he continues to be the good
Kenny Agostino, 27, LW, Toronto Maple Leafs
Agostino was a fifth-round pick in 2010. He did not get into the NHL until the 2013-2014 season. Agostino has consistently been a dominant presence in the AHL, with three seasons in a row of at least 50 points. In the 2016-2017 AHL season, he had 83 points in 65 games. He didn’t see more than a handful of games in the NHL until this past 2018-2019 season. He played for both the Montreal Canadiens and New Jersey Devils. With the Canadiens, he had two goals and nine assists for 11 points in 36 games. He had a CF% of 56.70% and a relative CF% of 3.44%. He was then claimed on waivers by the Devils, where he went on to have four goals and nine assists for 13 points in 27 games. While his CF% with the Devils was less at 48.86%, his relative CF% was greater at 5.25%. Agostino made both teams better when he was on the ice compared to his teammates.
Agostino signed as a UFA (unrestricted free agent) with the Toronto Maple Leafs. Toronto is close to the cap, so signing Agostino to a deal at the veteran minimum was appealing to them. For Agostino, there is an opportunity to earn a nice NHL role. The top-six will be filled, but the third line is not completely set. Alexander Kerfoot will be the center, but the two wing spots could be up for grabs. Agostino will have to battle with Zach Hyman (who is likely to start the season on injured reversed), Trevor Moore, and Nicolas Petan. While Agostino isn’t guaranteed to beat them out, it wouldn’t be crazy to see. Agostino having a consistent third-line role will be the best role he has been in. While his recent success and the Leafs’ logjam may point to a chance that he breaks out, he is also already 27 years old. Taking the next step at age 27 does not happen often, but Agostino couldn’t have asked for a better situation to make the unlikely happen.
Dean Kukan, 26, LD, Columbus Blue Jackets
Kukan was signed as an undrafted free agent out of the SHL. He never really saw NHL time until the end of the 2018-2019 season and into the playoffs. In a small sample size, he had five assists in 25 games during the season. His underlying numbers, albeit in a small sample, were good during those 25 games. He had a CF% of 53.24% and a relative CF% of 1.53%. Kukan’s most common defensive partner was Scott Harrington, showing that he played in a bottom pair role. What is impressive is the impact Kukan had on Harrington. With Kukan, Harrington had a CF% of 53.29%. Without Kukan, Harrington’s CF% dropped to 37.63%. Kukan made that defensive pairing formidable. Moving forward, Kukan could take a step and look to have a bigger, more consistent role on the Blue Jackets.
An opportunity could be there for Kukan. Columbus had Seth Jones, Zach Werenski, and Ryan Murray locked into the top four. David Savard was the other top-four defenseman, but he has started to fall off. Kukan needs to beat out Savard, Markus Nutivaara (who didn’t have a great season) and Scott Harrington for the last top-four spot. It is clear based off the statistics that Kukan has the edge over Harrington. The opportunity should be there for Kukan to earn second-pair minutes. If he can continue to play
Conclusion
Ultimately, it is very possible that none of these players make it to the level that Jonathan Marchessault did. However, when looking at each team in the east, these nine players were determined as most likely to do so. While some may be more likely than others, these nine are the players to watch closely throughout the 2019-2020 season. There may have been some players excluded simply because of them playing on a team where another player was deemed to be more likely to take a step.
What are your thoughts? Tweet us, @afpanalytics, to share.
Image courtesy of Jay LaPrete / Associated Press
James Finch is an analyst at AFP Analytics. James graduated from St. John Fisher College in 2019 with a bachelor’s degree in Sport Management with a minor in Economics. His background with sports and economics have brought about an interest in gaining experience and finding his niche within the sport analytics field.
22 Jul
Who Will Surprise During the 2019-2020 NHL Season? – Part 1: Western Conference
Each year, there are players throughout the NHL who seem to come out of nowhere. Jonathan Marchessault is a recent case of a player taking an unexpected step towards stardom. For the upcoming 2019-2020 season, I have taken an in-depth look throughout the league and have identified nine players in each conference who are most likely to be the next Marchessault. Each conference’s group of nine players has been broken into three groups based on their likeliness to exceed expectations next season: probable, coin flip, and possible. These groups represent what I believe to be the likelihood that each player breaks out like Marchessault. I did not want to have this centered on one team more than another, so I avoided picking multiple players from the same team.
This process is not as simple as looking at how many points someone has scored. While that may have some importance, there are many other underlying statistics that can provide a hint as to who may be able to take the next step forward. Other than total points (goals and assists) and TOI (time on ice), I will look specifically at 5v5 statistics (provided by naturalstattrick.com) for each player, as that helps take away any influence by “unfair” situations like the power play and penalty kill. Those situations tend to inflate the numbers of players. Looking at 5v5 ultimately tells us how well the player performed in the basic game of hockey. The analysis of each chosen player will involve the consideration of these statistics, as well as the overall situation and circumstance that they find themselves in. The age listed with the player is the age that they will play the majority of the 2019-2020 season as. I have tried to look at players who were not high draft picks as these players are expected to take a step forward. Instead, the goal was to identify some under the radar players.
Probable:
Ondrej Kase, 24, RW, Anaheim Ducks
The Anaheim Ducks are in the middle of a rebuilding (or retooling) phase. They weren’t too good last season and
There is space on the team for Kase to have the opportunity to play top-six minutes. Ryan Getzlaf, Adam Henrique, Rickard Rakell, and Jakob Silfverberg are the only forwards on the Ducks’ roster who seem to be clear locks for a top-six role. That would leave two spots available for others and Kase seems to be at the top of the list to fill one of those roles. Kase might be one of the easiest picks here, as both his statistics and his situation point to him being a top-six forward in the near future.
Conor Garland, 23, LW/RW, Arizona Coyotes
As a fifth-round draft
The opportunity is there for Garland to find a spot within the top six of the Arizona Coyotes. Phil Kessel, Derek Stepan, Nick Schmaltz, Christian Dvorak, and Clayton Keller should all have a top six role for the team. That leaves one spot for the likes of Conor Garland, Vinnie Hinostroza, and Christian Fischer. Based on the recent statistics, the battle will most likely be between Garland and Hinostroza. While there will be competition, there is an opportunity for Garland to land a bigger role this upcoming season. His statistics show that he may be ready for it.
Dylan Sikura, 24, LW/C/RW, Chicago Blackhawks
Sikura, a 24-
When looking at Sikura’s statistics, it is reasonable to say that he could turn into a quality two-way forward capable of playing within the top six. There will be competition in Chicago amongst the forwards for significant ice time. Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, Brandon Saad, Dylan Strome, and Alex DeBrincat are all locks for a top-six role. That leaves one spot up for grabs for players like Sikura, Drake Caggiula, David Kampf, Brendan Perlini, Alex Nylander, and Andrew Shaw to battle for. While it will be quite the competition, Sikura could either win the spot or find a role on the third line. Either way, Sikura showed in a quiet first season that he may be able to take a step forward and add more production if he finds himself in a bigger role.
Coin Flip:
Nikolay Goldobin, 24, LW, Vancouver Canucks
This 2014 first round pick didn’t last long with the team that drafted him. The San Jose Sharks traded him to the Vancouver Canucks during the 2016-2017 season in a deal for Jannik Hansen. During that season, he had good AHL numbers. Goldobin played in a total of 49 games and produced 19 goals and 26 assists for a total of 45 points. In 2017-2018, he dominated the AHL with 31 points in 30 games. He also played 38 NHL games with Vancouver, scoring eight goals and six assists for 14 points. The 2018-2019 season was the first season that Goldobin spent the entire year in the NHL. In 63 games, he scored seven goals and 20 assists for 27 points. His CF% was 49.24%, which is slightly lower than you’d want it to be. However, his CF% relative was 1.76%, showing that he made the team better when he was on the ice. Goldobin averaged 14:59 TOI this past season. He played the most with Elias Pettersson and Brock Boeser. While Goldobin put up good underlying numbers with the top players, his production just was not there. It is very possible that Goldobin is what he is at this point. It is also very possible that one more season with these top players will allow for Goldobin to take the next step and produce like a top six forward should.
There is space in the top six for Goldobin. Vancouver can currently expect Elias Pettersson, Bo Horvat, Brock Boeser, and J.T. Miller to have a
Michael Amadio, 23, C/RW, Los Angeles Kings
Amadio, a 23 year old forward, is not a flashy player who will surprise with one elite skill. However, he has been productive in the roles he has been given so far in his career. The former third=round pick had a strong 2016-2017 AHL season in his first year as a pro, producing 16 goals and 25 assists for a total of 41 points in 68 games. In 2017-2018, he was more productive with 11 goals and 24 assists for a total of 35 points in 32 AHL games. He also saw 37 games in the NHL, but only had four goals and four assists for a total of eight points in 37 games. 2018-2019 was somewhat similar for Amadio. In 28 AHL games, he had eight goals and 18 assists for 26 points. Amadio also played 43 NHL games, with six goals and seven assists for 13 points. While the production was slightly better, it still wasn’t necessarily impressive. However, Amadio was playing in a
While Amadio hasn’t shown a great goal scoring or playmaking ability, it is reasonable to think that he could become a quality two-way player. If given a bigger role, his offensive skills are strong enough that he could produce more points while still providing his quality two-way game. The Kings have Anze Kopitar, Alex Iafallo, Adrian Kempe, Tyler Toffoli, Jeff Carter, Dustin Brown
Lukas Radil, 29, LW, San Jose Sharks
Lukas Radil first played in the NHL during this past 2018-2019 season at the age of 28. He signed as an undrafted free agent after the 2017-2018 KHL season that saw him score 16 goals and 22 assists for 38 points in 51 games. During the 2018-2019 season, Radil produced well in the AHL in a small sample size. In 15 games, he had four goals and seven assists for 11 points. He saw a little more time in the NHL, producing seven goals and four assists for 11 points in 36 games. His role was minimal, as he had an average TOI of 10:41 per game. However, in that small sample size, he produced a CF% of 57.68%, with a relative CF% of 1.82%. The two forwards that he saw the most time with were Barlcay Goodrow and Melker Karlsson. Based off his average time on ice and his most common line mates, it is obvious that Radil did not play in much more than a bottom six role.
Based on his history, Radil seems as if he could be pretty productive if given more minutes. Going into his age 29 season, it is likely that Radil is what he is at this point. Seeing if he can handle bigger minutes may be a fairly quick experiment for the team, showing them he either can or cannot handle more ice time. At the least, he can be a quality bottom-six forward. Currently, the Sharks have Logan Couture, Evander Kane, Timo Meier, Tomas Hertl, and Kevin Labanc as locks for their top six. While it is very likely that Joe Thornton returns with Patrick Marleau in tow, that would still leave two spots open in the top nine. With very little competition from any other skilled players for those open spots,
Possible:
Austin Czarnik, 26, LW/RW, Calgary Flames
As an undrafted free agent out of Miami University (Ohio), it has never been expected that Czarnik would become much more than a bottom-six forward. He certainly seemed capable of that when in the Boston Bruins organization. In his first full AHL season, Czarnik had 20 goals and 41 assists for 61 points in 68 games. Then, in 2016-2017, he played 22 AHL games that saw him score six goals and 17 assists for 23 points. That same season, he played in 49 NHL games, scoring five goals and eight assists for 13 points. In 2017-2018, he played 64 AHL games, producing 25 goals and 44 assists for 69 points in 64 games. He only played 10 NHL games, posting four assists. Before the 2018-2019 season, he became a group six unrestricted free agent and signed with the Calgary Flames.
In 54 games this past season, he had six goals and 12 assists for 18 points in 54 games. He averaged an 11:20 TOI per game, which is a fourth line role. Czarnik had a CF% of 54.92% and a relative CF% of -0.55%. While the relative statistic is not great, Czarnik was on a very good Flames team, so it is reasonable to see that the fourth line player was replaceable compared to others on his team. Czarnik played the most with Mark Jankowski and Sam Bennett. Both players were better with Czarnik than without. Jankowski had a CF% of 57.89% with Czarnik and a CF% of 50.83% without him. Sam Bennett had a CF% of 62.44% with Czarnik and a CF% of 54.11% without him. Czarnik made his fourth line teammates better players. Based on his past as a highly productive AHL forward and a good fourth line NHL forward, it would be reasonable to test out Czarnik in a bigger role.
While statistics may point to Czarnik being a possible candidate for a bigger role, his actual situation with his current team may temper those thoughts. There are eight other forwards (Matthew Tkachuk, Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan, Mikael Backlund, Elias Lindholm, Michael Frolik, Mark Jankowski, and Andrew Mangiapane) who most likely have a spot locked in above Czarnik. That would leave one spot left in the top-nine on the third-line. For that spot, Czarnik would have to battle with newly acquired Milan Lucic, Derek Ryan, Alan Quine, Sam Bennett, and Dillon Dube. Czarnik could very well earn that role. However, both the crowded forward group and his age could play a role in how the team decides to move forward with him. At the least, Czarnik should continue contributing as a good fourth-line option.
Brandon Pirri, 28, LW/RW, Vegas Golden Knights
Pirri is a former second-round pick who has shown the ability to score goals. Many teams are constantly looking for goal scorers, making it somewhat odd that Pirri has not really been given a consistent shot at sticking in the NHL. Since the 2011-2012 season, Pirri has been at worst a near point per game player in the AHL. Most seasons in the AHL, he has dominated. This past year, he had 18 goals and 24 assists for 42 points in just 29 AHL games. At worst, Pirri has proven to be an elite AHL player throughout his career. The NHL season that stands out for Pirri is the 2014-2015 season. He was playing for the Florida Panthers that season. In 49 games, he scored 22 goals and two assists for 24 points. The following two seasons, Pirri played 52 games and then 60 games, but was not given a shot as a top-six forward.
As a player with a great goal scoring ability, it is odd that he has not been given a consistent look as a top-six forward. His most recent statistics show that his goal-scoring ability is still there. While we know he dominated in the AHL, his 2018-2019 NHL season saw him play in 31 games and produce 12 goals and six assists for 18 points. He averaged 14:27 TOI, which is a third-line role. Over a full season, his production would have been over 40 points. Pirri is a player that needs to be in the top-six with forwards who can consistently get the puck on his stick. His CF% was 56.69%, while his relative CF% was 3.66%. The Vegas Golden Knights were a better team when Pirri was on the ice in relation to his teammates. On top of that, Pirri has provided quality
The problem here for Pirri is the lack of space in the top six on the Vegas Golden Knights. Mark Stone, Max Pacioretty, Paul Stastny, William Karlsson, Reilly Smith, and Jonathan Marchessault are all destined for the top-six in the upcoming season. To truly breakout, Pirri likely needs to be given enough quality and quantity minutes. With Eakin and Tuch, he will likely get the quality but due to Vegas’s depth at forward, likely won’t get the quantity. In a full season, he may be able to produce 40 points. However, worst-case scenario, he could end up being sent to the AHL if other players win the battle for the roles in the bottom-six. William Carrier, Ryan Reaves, Tomas Nosek, and more will be looking to find their spot in the lineup. The depth that Vegas has, paired with the fact that Pirri is 28 and has yet to see a significant look in the NHL, shows that he may not be given a shot to become the elite goal scorer that his statistics show he could possibly be.
Nathan Beaulieu, 27, LD, Winnipeg Jets
Beaulieu is a former first-round pick of the Montreal Canadiens. After he didn’t quite develop the way they wanted him to, he was shipped off to Buffalo. History repeated itself with Buffalo, as he was traded midway through the 2018-2019 season to the Winnipeg Jets. In 30 games for the Sabres, Beaulieu had three goals and four assists for seven points. For Winnipeg, he played in 18 games and had five assists. For both teams, Beaulieu found himself as a scratched player throughout the season. He never really saw a role much greater than the bottom pair for Buffalo (14:42 average TOI), while he did see some time in a second pair role for Winnipeg (16:51 average TOI). Beaulieu had a CF% of 50.14% and a relative CF% of 4.68% with Buffalo. He then had a CF% of 48.38% and a relative CF% of 1.49% with Winnipeg.
With both teams, Beaulieu proved to be a player that made the team better when he was on the ice in comparison to his teammates. In Buffalo, his most common defensive partner was Casey Nelson, while in Winnipeg it was Jacob Trouba. Nelson is a good bottom pair defenseman, while Trouba has developed into a boarderline top-pair defenseman. Either way, Beaulieu played well with both players. Nelson was better with Beaulieu (57.32 CF%) than without (45.12 CF%). Trouba followed the same pattern, as he was better with Beaulieu (48.35 CF%) than without (44.83%). Beaulieu proved to be capable in multiple roles throughout the season and he made both a bottom pair defenseman and a
Age is a negative for Beaulieu, as someone with his perception (a replaceable bottom pair to
Conclusion
Ultimately, it is very possible that none of these players make it to the level that Jonathan Marchessault did. However, when looking at each team in the west, these nine players were determined as most likely to do so. While some may be more likely than others, these nine are the players to watch closely throughout the 2019-2020 season. There may have been some players excluded simply because of them playing on a team where another player was deemed to be more likely to take a step.
What are your thoughts? Tweet us, @afpanalytics, to share.
Image courtesy of John Locher / Associated Press
James Finch is an analyst at AFP Analytics. James graduated from St. John Fisher College in 2019 with a bachelor’s degree in Sport Management with a minor in Economics. His background with sports and economics have brought about an interest in gaining experience and finding his niche within the
22 Jul
What Should Evan Rodrigues’ Next Contract Look Like?
On July 21st, the team offer and player ask in arbitration for Evan Rodrigues were reported and Sabres’ fans on Twitter did not seem happy with what the team might end up paying Rodrigues. The Sabres were at $1.5M while Rodrigues’s camp was at $2.65M. I would expect a deal to be reached prior to arbitration but if it isn’t, it is likely the arbitrator would award the mid-point between the two sides, which would be $2.075M. Based on our contract projections, this would be a team friendly contract as we projected Rodrigues to be just under $2.3M on a short-term contract. If I were running the Sabres, I would look to get Rodrigues locked up to a longer-term contract that would take him to age 29. This would be a four-year contract, worth $3.5M per season. If Sabres’ fans thought Rodrigues’s ask of $2.65M was crazy, they probably think I am insane. To me, the craziest part of this negotiation is Rodrigues’ agent has asked for an amount that is far too low. Let’s take a look at how we came to our valuation for Rodrigues. Please note that all statistics discussed are sourced from naturalstattrick.com and are 5v5 statistics unless otherwise noted. All salary data is courtesy of capfriendly.com.
The Structure of a Long-term Contract
When looking at the list of comparable players who signed their long-term contract at age 25 or 26, many of the strong comparisons signed contracts that took them to age 29. This means a four-year contract would make sense. As far as comparable players go, I would look at Lars Eller and Bryan Rust, who both signed four-year contracts with a $3.5M average annual value. If we were to look at these contracts in terms of cap hit percentage, the average of the two is 4.735%. That translates to a $3.93M average annual value (AAV). Next, we will discuss how Rodrigues compares to Eller and Rust and if the cap hit percentage should be used or if Rodrigues should slot slightly below these players in cap hit percentage, which would occur with a $3.5M average annual value. The recent four-year contract, carrying an AAV of $2.75M for Oscar Sundqvist does throw a little wrench in things, maybe to the Sabres’ benefit.
Both Rust and Eller have played a critical role as middle-six players on top teams. They are players who have shown an ability to play top line minutes if called upon, but their primary roles are to be quality two-way players who can add some offense. Sundqvist has played a role that is a step down from the other two, playing mostly bottom six minutes, with little time on a top line. I see Evan Rodrigues in a more similar light to Rust and Eller. Rodrigues has demonstrated versatility, playing everywhere from the first-line to fourth-line. He has also shown an ability to be effective at both wing and center.
When looking strictly at point production during 5v5 play, Rodrigues’s total point production in his platform season is between Eller and Rust, with very similar goal production. Sundqvist’s goal scoring propelled him to a clear point advantage over these players. We can all agree that Rodrigues has played on much inferior teams than Eller, Rust, and Sundqvist leading into their four-year contracts. I don’t think it would be completely unreasonable to chalk Rodrigues’s inferior assist totals in his platform season to playing with line mates who struggled to generate offense. If Rodrigues wasn’t the one scoring or directly setting up the goal, chances were the Sabres were not going to score, given Rodrigues’s incredibly low secondary assists. If given the opportunity to consistently play with line mates who can better generate offense, he should be able to pick up some additional secondary assists. The season before provides some evidence for this hypothesis. I also think Rodrigues is an example of a player where using beyond the box score statistics can help paint a clearer picture of the player’s individualized impact. Below you can find a comparison of Rodrigues to Eller, Rust, and Sundqvist’s scoring metrics in their platform seasons.
Next, I want to look at the on-ice metrics. In Rodrigues’ last two seasons with the Sabres, the team struggled to control the shot differential so it would be perfectly reasonable to see Rodrigues have poor metrics as well. However, he does not. When Rodrigues was on the ice, the Sabres broke just about even in the shot counter over the past two seasons. Control of the on-ice shot counter is typically related to controlling the goal differential while a player is on the ice. All four of the players we are assessing here have a similar trend in this aspect. Rodrigues and Rust see their goal differential slightly worse than their on-ice shot differential, while Sundqvist’s is slightly better. Eller is the only one who saw a dramatic shift from shot differential to goal differential. However, it is critical to consider the teams each player plays on when looking at these metrics. Below you will find the comparison for their on-ice metrics.
In order to control for the fact that Rodrigues’ Sabres are a far inferior team to the teams that Eller and Rust played on, we want to look to the player’s relative statistics, which are measuring how much better or worse the team performs with the player on the ice. Please note that when looking at CA/60 Rel or GA/60 Rel, lower numbers are better. This is indicating that the team is giving up X% less when the player is on the ice. When looking at Rodrigues’ relative metrics, I see a player who is valuable to his team, especially considering the role he has been asked to play. Rodrigues and Rust look incredibly strong here, while Eller and Sundqvist struggle.
With Rodrigues having strong underlying metrics, it is curious that his scoring numbers decreased this past season until you look at his usage. When Rodrigues’s scoring was up, he was starting just under half of his shifts (that started with a faceoff) in the offense zone. In his platform season, he received more ice time but only started 40% of his shifts in the offensive zone. A side effect of being asked to play more of a defensive role is playing with players who are “offensively challenged.” That will certainly hinder his ability to generate points.
Overall, I think Rodrigues compares very well to both Eller and Rust. I think Rodrigues could be more productive offensively if given an opportunity to do so. A focus on taking shots in higher danger areas could also help. The big question is whether that opportunity is there under a new coach. As things currently stand, I would probably slot Rodrigues slightly behind Eller and Rust, given he has only played close to one full season in Buffalo and the others had more of a proven track record at the time of signing. If we were to look at things in terms of cap hit percentage, an AAV of $3.5M probably makes sense as it comes in at a cap hit percent of 4.58%, which is lower than both Eller and Rust. The recent signing of Sundqvist does throw a wrench into things. He probably signed for slightly less than his market value on a four-year contract as he also compares well to both Eller and Rust so he should have been able to get closer to the $3.5M than he did. For Rodrigues, this probably knocks his value down into the range of $3M to $3.25M, which I think would be an absolute steal for the Sabres. I would still be comfortable with paying Rodrigues $3.5M on a four-year contract, though if the team can save some money because of Sundqvist’s signing, then they absolutely should.
Rodrigues’ Value on a Short-Term Contract
When constructing an arbitration case, each side presents comparable players that they believe justify their position. In a perfect world, player performance and salary would be perfectly correlated. Obviously, that does not happen. Inferior players get paid more and superior players get paid less. This allows both sides to latch onto one or more players that they believe they can use to make their case. There are plenty of options to use for either side. I will highlight one player Rodrigues’ side should use, one the Sabres should use, and the player who is probably most similar to Rodrigues.
Player Most in Rodrigues’ Favor – Vladislav Namestnikov
If I were on Rodrigues’ side, I would be using Vladislav Namestnikov’s contract from last season (two years, 5.03% of the salary cap) to drive up his value. I would have asked for $4M in arbitration and been able to present a strong argument to get very close to that value. Below, you can see the comparison of the players in terms of their Scoring, On-Ice and Relative Metrics from their platform seasons.
Namestnikov appears to be the slightly superior player as he scored goals at a better rate and had superior on-ice metrics. However, a strong argument could be made that Rodrigues did more to improve his team’s performance. He had a far superior primary assist rate, meaning he was directly setting up goals and was incredibly strong in improving the team’s shot and goal differential. It is likely that Rodrigues will ultimately end up getting paid $2M less than Namestnikov, which would be incredible value for the Sabres.
Player Most in the Sabres’ Favor – Marcus Kruger
Let me preface this by saying I think Rodrigues’ numbers are superior to Kruger. The problem is the difference is somewhat minimal. To me, the difference between Rodrigues and Kruger is very similar to the difference between Namestikov and Rodrigues. If you were to present the argument that Rodrigues should be paid a little less than Namestikov, then I would counter with Rodrigues shouldn’t be paid much more than Kruger’s (one year, 2.05%). This could be the argument the Sabres present as they came in very close to Kruger’s contract under today’s cap hit ($1.67M). They also will likely attach themselves to Vinnie Hinostroza’s two-year, $1.5M AAV contract. However, Rodrigues is a vastly different player and is asked to play a significantly different role so I am going to highlight Kruger who plays a more similar role to Rodrigues.
When looking at Rodrigues and Kruger in their platform seasons, I would argue that the two players performed very similarly but Kruger benefited from playing on a stronger team as shown by his relative metrics. While Rodrigues improved his team when on the ice, Kruger weakened his. He also lagged behind in primary assists, which in turn lessened his total point production. Let’s take a look at the numbers.
There should be little doubt that Rodrigues should be paid more than Kruger, though how much more is the looming question. It probably isn’t significant enough to approach Rodrigues’ ask of $2.65M, but it is significant enough to get Rodrigues to around the $2M he will likely receive.
Most Comparable Player to Evan Rodrigues – Joonas Donskoi
The top comparable player for Evan Rodrigues is Joonas Donskoi at age 25. He signed a two-year, 2.53% contract. Under today’s salary cap, that would be $2.06M, which is nearly identical to the arbitration midpoint. I think Rodrigues’ stats could warrant a slightly higher salary than Donskoi but if I were to pick the most comparable player for Rodrigues, Donskoi is where I settle. Their on-ice and relative metrics are very similar. Rodrigues scored at slightly better rates. The one area where Rodrigues has a clear advantage is his team improved their goal differential while he was on the ice while Donskoi’s team got worse in their platform seasons. Let’s look at their numbers.
In their platform season, Rodrigues looks superior. However, when looking at each player’s platform minus one season, Donskoi had far superior advanced metrics in a full season, while Rodrigues had better point production in a condensed season. Though I have not previously highlighted more than one season in any section to keep this article more streamlined, I think it is critical here so you can see why Donskoi is the most comparable player.
One question that has to be answered is which of the past two seasons is more representative of Rodrigues’ scoring abilities. Based on comparable players, I would guess Rodrigues should score around a rate of 1.5 points per 60 minutes. That has been his scoring rate for his career. Over the course of a season, that should translate to roughly 25-30 points during 5v5 play. With some special team production, I think Rodrigues could be around a 40-point player.
Rodrigues also has shown to be a fairly strong penalty killer, while Donskoi has not seen penalty kill minutes at all. As such, we would argue Rodrigues should be paid slightly more than Donskoi, but probably not a significant amount.
I should also discuss how I see the two players comparing beyond the statistics. I see both players as high-end third line players, who can slot higher in the lineup if needed. Although neither player is going to carry or drive a team, they are high quality depth players. In today’s NHL, players with Rodrigues’ and Donskoi’s skill sets and diversity are critical pieces in building championship level teams. If given the choice of having Rodrigues or Donskoi on my team at the same salary, I would take Rodrigues. However, if Rodrigues were making more than $500,000 more than Donskoi, I would take Donskoi.
Other Considerations
Penalty Killing
I generally think most players can kill penalties if given the chance as most will produce average results. This is generally why I would not put too much value into penalty kill minutes. To explore this idea, I created a histogram, plotting every player’s Corsi against per 60 while the player is on the ice, showing forwards with at least 25 minutes. This was 227 players in total. The data is normally distributed meaning the principles of a bell curve will apply. This means that 68.2% of all players fall within one standard deviation of the average, so in my opinion they are basically interchangeable. When looking at players who provide a significant improvement in penalty killing, I would focus on players who fall more than one standard deviation below the average. This would be approximately 16% of the players. Rodrigues falls just above one standard deviation below the mean, as he was on the ice for 81.84 Corsi against per 60. Put into simple terms, I would consider Evan Rodrigues to be better than 81.5% of players who killed penalties in 2018-2019, which is 42 players in total. The Sabres used four main players on the penalty kill. Those four were Zemgus Girgensons, Johan Larsson, Vladimir Sobotka, and Rodrigues. Rodrigues was by far the most effective of them. The only Sabre to play enough minutes to qualify in my sample and perform better than Rodrigues was Jack Eichel. Below, I have included and illustrated the histogram to visualize what I just narrated.
Teammate Considerations
Because of Rodrigues’ versatility, detractors might point to some of his strong numbers being the result of playing with top end players. I will attempt to determine how valid that argument is. Here, I will look at Rodrigues’ relative shot metrics with and without a player. During the 2018-2019 season, Rodrigues played at least 50 minutes with 10 forwards. Those 10 forwards were Conor Sheary, Vladimir Sobotka, Kyle Okposo, Sam Reinhart, Jason Pominville, Jeff Skinner, Zemgus Girgensons, Casey Mittelstadt, Johan Larsson, and Tage Thompson. Only three of them (Jason Pominville, Zemgus Girgensons, and Johan Larsson) performed worse with Rodrigues than when they didn’t play with him. Additionally, the Sabres were a better team when Rodrigues was paired with everyone except Larsson, Girgensons, and Sobotka. Of course, Rodrigues played the second most minutes with Sobotka. Though we will never know, I would be interested in seeing how much better Rodrigues would have been had he not been saddled with the Sobotka anchor.
Conclusion
Last season, Evan Rodrigues was the Sabres’s fourth most valuable forward behind Eichel, Reinhart, and Skinner (in no particular order). He was one of the strongest forwards in improving the team’s performance while he was on the ice. He also was the team’s best regular penalty killer at forward. Sabre fans may look at Rodrigues’ point production and wonder why in the world would a team commit more than $2M to a player who only had nine goals and 29 assists across all situations and only seven goals and 14 assists during 5v5 play, while only just becoming a lineup regular at the end of the season. This is why we need to consider more than just his goals and assists. When we do, we see a player who compares well to versatile role players on Stanley Cup winning teams.
If the Sabres hope to take major steps forward, it is critical that they have bargain players who can provide lineup versatility. Right now, Rodrigues is that player. The team would be wise to avoid arbitration and lock Rodrigues up through his prime. Although you may see this as a risky move, I think it is the safest move the Sabres could make. We will soon see how the team feels about Rodrigues. For a team that has made some smart, numbers driven moves this offseason, securing Rodrigues would keep things moving in that direction. If they don’t, it will be another case of a step or two forward and a step back in their embrace of analytics.
Feel free to tweet us your thoughts, @afpanalytics.
KYLE STICH is the Director of AFP Analytics. In addition, Mr. Stich is a tax specialist and Director of Operations at AFP Consulting LLC, whose clientele include professional athletes performing services on three separate continents. Mr. Stich earned his Master of Science in Sport Management with a Concentration in
James Finch is an analyst at AFP Analytics. James graduated from St. John Fisher College in 2019 with a bachelor’s degree in Sport Management with a minor in Economics. His background with sports and economics have brought about an interest in gaining experience and finding his niche within the sport analytics field.
17 Jul
2019 NHL Free Agents: Five Remaining UFAs Who Could Provide Value
After the initial rush of the 2019 free agency period, there are still many players looking for an opportunity with an NHL club. There are some well-known names still currently looking for a new contract, like Jake Gardiner and Joe Thornton. However, we believe that there is value to be found with the players who aren’t as well-known and who may be looking for an opportunity at a larger role. We have identified five players that teams should be targeting that will, worst case scenario, improve the organizations depth. Best case scenario, these players may surprise and play their way into a more significant role on the team.
Safest Bet: Dmitrij Jaskin
After being a second-round pick in 2011, many within the hockey industry thought that Dmitrij Jaskin would become a solid middle
Most Likely to Take the Next Step to the NHL: Rourke Chartier
Rourke Chartier is a 23 year old forward who has hit the UFA (unrestricted free agent) market. Other players at that age have been in this situation before, but the numbers that Chartier has produced make him stand out. Chartier was a very productive WHL player in his junior days. Once he moved to the AHL in the San Jose Sharks organization, his game seemed to translate well. His first AHL season, he played 67 games and produced 35 points. AHL season number two saw him post 21 points in 28 games. This past season in the AHL, he had 18 points in 26 games. These numbers don’t jump off the page, but they are very respectable. Chartier also saw 13 games in the NHL this past season. In these games, he had just one goal. While that is not great, his underlying numbers gave a glimpse of hope. He averaged 9:24 TOI (time on ice), leading us to the conclusion that he was playing in a fourth line role. He produced a CF% of 53.15%. While that is good, his CF% relative was -4.86%, painting a more negative picture. Looking at these numbers, we can draw the conclusion that he may have benefited from playing on a great San Jose team but would not have been one of the better options in comparison to his teammates. However, we believe that based off of his AHL numbers and the fact that he is still young, he has the ability to make the jump to the NHL. A team looking to take a chance on an AHL player who may be able to become an adequate option on an NHL fourth line should be looking at Chartier. He should end up signing for the minimum, so this would be a low-risk option. Worst case scenario, he plays well in the AHL. Ideally, he takes the next step and becomes an option for the NHL roster.
Top Six Fill in: Pontus Aberg
Pontus Aberg is a former top second-round pick of the Nashville Predators. While he looked good for their AHL affiliate, his numbers did not translate well to the NHL. We would like to highlight that in 37 games with Nashville during the 2017-2018 season, he played over 160 minutes with Calle Jarnkrok. Jarnkrok was the Nashville forward that Aberg played the most minutes with. Aberg finished the 2017-2018 season with the Edmonton Oilers after being traded midseason. In 16 games with the Oilers, Aberg had two goals and six assists for a total of eight points. While his CF% was 48.49, his relative CF% was 2.25%, showing that the team was better when he was on the ice. In these 16 games with Edmonton, Aberg played 75 or more minutes with Drake Caggiula, Leon Draisaitl, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.
In the 2018-2019 season, Aberg started off with the Anaheim Ducks after being claimed on waivers. In 37 games with the Ducks, Aberg had 19 points. He produced a CF% of 53.60%, and a relative percentage of 7.73%. Aberg looked great playing with his most common Anaheim forward teammates of Ryan Getzlaf (274:46 TOI), Rickard Rakell (130:01 TOI), and Adam Henrique (129:52 TOI).
Midseason, Anaheim traded Aberg to the Minnesota Wild. With the Wild, Aberg struggled in 22 games. He only produced six points. Aberg’s underlying numbers were not good either. He had a CF% of 46.90%, with a relative CF% of -4.70%. Aberg was not helping the Wild when he was on the ice. He was very replaceable on their team. With Minnesota, the most common forward teammates that Aberg played with were Victor Rask (93:03 TOI) and Zach Parise (82:13 TOI).
The main thing that stands out here is that Aberg provided quality numbers when playing with top players. He has been at his best level of play with Ryan Getzlaf and Leon
Veteran Depth Player: Oscar Lindberg
As a former second-round pick, Lindberg came into the league as someone who projected to be a decent middle-six option within the forward group. That never really happened, as the most points he has ever produced in a single year was 28 in the 2015-2016 season. However, he has established himself as a decent bottom-six option. This past year, his season was split between the Vegas Golden Knights and the Ottawa Senators. With Vegas, Lindberg had four goals and eight assists in 35 games. His CF% was 56.44%, with a relative CF% of 4.21%. With Ottawa, Lindberg produced five goals and three assists in 20 games. His CF% was 44.70, with a relative CF% of 0.18%. His numbers looked really good with Vegas. Once he got to Ottawa, his underlying numbers fell, but he produced at a better rate. However, Lindberg was on a really good Vegas team, playing with other quality bottom-six forwards like Cody Eakin and Ryan Carpenter. In Ottawa, he was still making the team better in relation to other players on his team while playing with fringe NHL players, Magnus Paajarvi and Brian Gibbons. After looking at these statistics, we believe that Lindberg would be a quality veteran player to put into your bottom six. If he has other similar players around him, he will look good. If he plays with players who may fit better in the AHL, he may still have the offensive ability to stay serviceable in his NHL role. Ultimately, Lindberg is a solid veteran option to have on your NHL roster.
Boom/Bust Potential: Stefan Noesen
Stefan Noesen was a first round pick in 2011 for the Ottawa Senators. He first broke into the NHL with the Anaheim Ducks, but over three seasons of very limited time, he found himself in the New Jersey Devils organization via waivers. Noesen has had some problems dealing with injuries in his career, but he was able to put together a 72 game season in 2017-2018 with the Devils. During this season, he had 13 goals and 14 assists for a total of 27 points. His CF% was 51.62% with a relative CF% of 3.23%. This was Noesen’s first season where he came close to playing all of the games. The team would have liked to see him take another step forward in 2018-2019, but the opposite happened. Finding himself on the injured list three times throughout the season, Noesen played only 41 games. In those 41 games, he had only three goals and five assists for a total of eight points. His underlying numbers didn’t help either, as his CF% was 45.65% and his relative CF% was -2.74%. Noesen went from looking like a guy who could become a solid middle six option to a guy who may struggle to find an NHL opportunity. The Devils did not give him a qualifying offer this offseason, making him
Photo by Ethan Miller / Getty Images
James Finch is an analyst at AFP Analytics. James graduated from St. John Fisher College in 2019 with a bachelor’s degree in Sport Management with a minor in Economics. His background with sports and economics have brought about an interest in gaining experience and finding his niche within the sport analytics field.