Seattle Kraken Expansion Mock Draft

With the addition of the 32^nd National Hockey League (NHL) Franchise, the Seattle Kraken, the expansion draft they are undertaking is like Christmas for anyone who loves roster management as much as watching the sport. In this article, James Finch and Kyle Stich are joining together to go through how they would approach the expansion draft. Some things to keep in mind: 1) This is how they would approach the expansion draft if they were Ron Francis. 2) Both have done their best to make realistic decisions. 3) We have done our best to not go overboard with trades and side-deals but without having inside knowledge of discussions there could be some deals that are on the table that we did not consider but would take if we knew they were possible. Conversely, we may make some deals that one or both teams involved have no interest in. With that in mind, let’s go through our decisions for each team. We will try to briefly explain our considerations and our thought process for arriving at each pick for each team. Big thanks to Capfriendly.com for their expansion tool. Let’s get Kraken!

Anaheim Ducks

James: The first thing that comes to mind when looking at the unprotected players from Anaheim is that nobody truly sticks out. I will most likely be interested in trading whoever I take from Anaheim. With that in mind, I’m looking mostly at Danton Heinen and Kevin Shattenkirk with this pick.

Shattenkirk could be a valuable second or third pairing defenseman, as well as a possible powerplay option, for a team starting from scratch. He could also bring a veteran presence to a team in need. However, I think I will be able to find other players to provide the same type of impact who are younger. Those characteristics could be valuable in a trade, so Shattenkirk is my pick.

Selection: Kevin Shattenkirk

Kyle: To me there are four possibilities unless Anaheim really wants to make it worth my time to take Adam Henrique. Considering they seem to be a team undergoing some level of rebuild, they are probably not too interested in giving up a premium asset to have me take Henrique. With that off the table, I would be considering Sonny Milano, Kevin Shattenkirk, Haydn Fleury, and Jacob Larsson. Frankly, none of the players are must haves for me and like James chose to do, I would be very open to flipping my selection from Anaheim to another team. 

Ultimately, I went for the youngest, cheapest, and highest upside player of the four and selected Haydn Fleury. My objective with him (or another selection) is to flip him for a decent prospect who is waiver exempt and/or draft pick to help build my farm system.

Selection: Haydn Fleury 

Arizona Coyotes

James: The Coyotes don’t have much to worry about with expansion because there are no key players left unprotected. I’m not interested in any of their UFA’s and the players under contract are easily replaceable. I’m going to take Josef Korenar, an AHL goalie that Arizona just acquired in a deal for Adin Hill. Adding some goalie depth in the AHL is important for the organization. This pick provides that.

Selection: Josef Korenar

Kyle: I know Christian Fischer is a popular pick here and I don’t mind that idea, but I’m concerned of the direction of his underlying numbers where I see a somewhat weak Coyotes’ team getting worse with him on the ice and it has been getting worse and not better over the past few years. Could a change of scenery/coaching system turn things around for him? Possibly. With how my roster shapes out, I don’t really see a spot for him in my lineup so I will take a chance on a different player. My selection came down to Michael Bunting and Lane Pederson who have shown flashes when given the opportunity but have a very small sample size or taking and signing Antti Raanta. 

My selection here was Michael Bunting who went on a scoring streak to close out last season while also improving Arizona’s shot metrics. He is someone I can probably sign cheaply and potentially sneak him through waivers if he doesn’t stick as a depth forward.

Selection: Michael Bunting

Boston Bruins

James: At first, this pick was not clear to me. I see that Ondrej Kase is available. Maybe a couple seasons ago, he’d be the definite pick. Things have gone downhill since he was traded to Boston. He is crossed off the list. There are some bottom pair (at best) defensemen available in Zboril, Lauzon, and Clifton. And there is Nick Ritchie.

The more I looked, the more clear it was that picking Ritchie was the best decision. His underlying numbers are decent and he provides that quick and heavy game that is often seen in the Western Conference. I think that he will be a great addition to the third line of this team. 

Selection: Nick Ritchie

Kyle: This was one of the toughest decisions and one I changed multiple times as I built out my roster. I considered Ondrej Kase, Karson Kuhlman, Connor Clifton, Jeremy Lauzon, Jakub Zboril, Nick Ritchie, and even Mike Reilly. If Boston called me and was offering an asset while also allowing me to select any of these players, I probably go for. If Kase could stay healthy, I would have been very tempted to select him outright. Kuhlman has put up tremendous shot metrics in limited time. I then liked the fit of Nick Ritchie on my third line but worried about the cost of his next contract. Although most of my decisions were driven by shot metrics, this one goes a little counter to that as I ended up selecting one of the defensemen who all made the Bruins worse while on the ice.

Ultimately, I went with the cheapest, youngest, and one who seems to have the most buzz in Jeremy Lauzon. I don’t know if I love this selection but from an asset management and roster building standpoint, Lauzon makes the most sense. I see him much like Haydn Fleury. I could easily envision him in my lineup but if I can get a sweet offer to flip him, I would strongly consider doing so.

Selection: Jeremy Lauzon (or someone that I have a side deal to trade)

Buffalo Sabres

James: If Buffalo wants me to stay away from Will Borgen, I’m going to need some value. I don’t have interest in taking on any money in this deal either. Buffalo will send me FLA’s 2021 3rd round pick to take someone other than Borgen.

I ended up taking Steven Fogarty. His game was respectable when he saw time in Buffalo this past season on the fourth line. Ultimately, I will try to re-sign him to be my captain in the AHL and serve as some useful forward depth.

Selection: Steven Fogarty and FLA 2021 3rd Round Pick

Kyle: Buffalo doesn’t have a lot to offer. I don’t have interest in taking Jeff Skinner because of his contract unless Buffalo is going to give me some crazy incentive to do so. If I needed a depth forward, I might look to Zemgus Girgensons but there are plenty of better options to fill that role. The only reason I might go Girgensons without an incentive is because the opportunity cost of selecting him is a lot less than other similar players. I probably could talk myself into it if he were not coming off a season-ending injury. 

Otherwise, my focus is on a defenseman. Jake McCabe is an intriguing option but without being in the Kraken front office, I have too many unknowns to make this. First, I already have a lot of left-shot defensemen. If I can make some side-deals, to flip a couple, McCabe becomes a little more interesting. Second, I don’t know how his knee has healed. Finally, I don’t know what type of contract he is looking for. If I had more clarity on those, he might be the pick. Otherwise, my selection would come down to Will Borgen or Colin Miller unless I can extract an asset from Buffalo to steer me otherwise.

I originally had Will Borgen but after seeing how my roster filled out, did not see a spot for him and likely would have had to put him on waivers. With Buffalo having the top priority, they could have just taken him back. Maybe I can flip him to another team for an asset. To make things easy, I ask Buffalo for a middle-round draft pick to not take Borgen. I get that and take a flyer and select Andrew Oglevie with the intention of sending him to the AHL.

Selection: Andrew Oglevie and a 3^rd round draft pick

Calgary Flames

James: This is an easy pick for me. While his career may be close to coming to an end, Mark Giordano is still playing pretty well. Looking at all the defenseman available in the draft, he may be one of the more reliable defenseman for me to have on my top pair. His $6.75 million dollar deal only has one season left, giving much flexibility if things do not go well. Oliver Kylington and Tyler Parsons stick out as possibilities, but I don’t see either providing the impact that I believe Giordano will for my team.

Selection: Mark Giordano

Kyle: Calgary has one huge name, who comes with a huge contract, in Mark Giordano, and a couple intriguing young players. Ultimately, I do not have the salary cap space to take Giordano and make some of the other moves that I hope to make. My two other serious contenders for this pick are Oliver Kylington and Tyler Parsons.

With not much to choose from, I quickly settled on another young, left-shot defenseman in Oliver Kylington. He has put up some quality shot metrics and plays in a way I prefer my defensemen to. Much like Fleury and Lauzon, I would be very open to flipping him to another team as I don’t envision having room for all three of those left defensemen. 

Selection: Oliver Kylington

Carolina Hurricanes

James: I’m tempted to take Dougie Hamilton, but I have a plan to take some other UFA’s in the draft and don’t want to have too many possible unknowns. Nino Niederreiter stands out as an underrated forward, but I’m going to go with a younger, more controllable player in Jake Bean. The former first rounder should fit nicely on the bottom pair of this team and grow into a legitimate top four defenseman. I imagine that the Hurricanes won’t be thrilled to lose Bean, but still having Niederreiter is a nice consolation prize.

Selection: Jake Bean

Kyle: There are some fantastic options available from Carolina. I love the prospect of adding any of Nino Niederreiter, Dougie Hamilton, and Jake Bean. I’m going to use my negotiating window to work out a deal with Hamilton. However, there is nothing preventing me from holding off until the official start of free agency to have that contract signed. With a $63M, seven-year contract agreed to with Hamilton, I turn my attention to selecting one of Niederreiter or Bean. 

I already have enough young, left-shot defensemen so adding Bean, at the cost of passing on Niederreiter doesn’t seem to be the most efficient asset management strategy. I’m sure I could flip Bean but is the return going to be as good as Niederreiter? I don’t think so. I happily make analytic darling, Nino Niederreiter, my selection and have plans for pairing him with another analytic darling.

Selection: Nino Niederreiter

Chicago Blackhawks

James: There really is not much available from Chicago. Ryan Carpenter ends up being my selection as someone who can fight for a spot on the fourth line and may get scratched quite a bit this season. He is a cheap veteran that is the definition of depth. 

Selection: Ryan Carpenter

Kyle: Another team with limited quality options available. I could justify picking any of Brett Connolly, Vinnie Hinostroza, Adam Gaudette, Calvin de Haan, Nikita Zadorov, Malcom Subban, or Colin Delia. I also almost took Anton Lindholm to help satisfy my defensemen requirement but would have had no intention of signing him. Another consideration for Chicago is to take someone and flip them to another team. Zadorov is probably the prime candidate for that. I really like the shot metrics Hinostroza has put up throughout his career but would be worried about the number of games he has missed throughout his career. If he agrees to a veteran minimum contract prior to the expansion draft, I might roll the dice on him.

Ultimately, I opted for a player who has shown tremendous flashes, especially in controlling shot quality, in previous stops in his career and selected Brett Connolly. I don’t love his contract and might try to bluff Chicago into giving me something to select him over Zadorov but if they call my bluff, I might look pretty foolish in still selecting Connolly.

Selection: Brett Connolly

Colorado Avalanche

James: Moving Ryan Graves was smart because he would be the pick here. Without Graves on the table, Joonas Donskoi seems to be my choice of players under contract. However, I’m going to gamble and negotiate a deal with Gabriel Landeskog to be the first captain of the Seattle Kraken. Donskoi is a decent third liner, but it isn’t enough to keep me from Landeskog.Signing Landeskog now prevents him from hitting the open market and creating a bidding war. With an agreed to 7 year deal at an $8,000,000AAV, the team now has a legitimate top line forward. 

Selection: Gabriel Landeskog

Kyle: It seems like Gabriel Landeskog is gaining a little momentum as the selection, but I don’t know if Landeskog agrees to a contract in the negotiating window to make him the selection. There could be the possibility to pivot back, I’m going to move past making him or Brandon Saad as my selection and spend my cap space in other ways. I ultimately went back and forth between J.T. Compher and Joonas Donskoi, who have produced similar numbers the past couple of years and have very similar contracts. Neither are can’t miss players and I would certainly entertain an offer from Colorado to steer my selection. 

Ultimately, I went with the cheaper, younger, and more versatile player in J.T. Compher. I’m not anticipating him playing more than a bottom six role on my team so he could be a prime flip candidate if some other team is in love with him.

Selection: J.T. Compher

Columbus Blue Jackets

James: This is very easy. Max Domi. I don’t believe he was the right fit in Columbus. I like him at center on a line that is primarily used in the offensive zone. I believe he can get back to looking like a clear top six center if used correctly.

Selection: Max Domi

Kyle: In my opinion, there are three and only three options to select from Columbus unless they are giving me some crazy incentive. If Seattle voluntarily selects anyone but Max Domi, Dean Kukan, or possibly Gabriel Carlsson, I would be shocked. Max Domi seems to be a popular selection but his $5.3M cap hit is a little too steep for a player whose performance has been steadily declining. 

Instead of taking a flyer on Domi or Carlsson, I select underrated right-shot defenseman, Dean Kukan. Kukan has very quietly put-up quality shot metrics for the Blue Jackets over the past couple seasons. He is also signed to a very cheap contract and at worst I can likely flip him at the trade deadline. I envision him playing a longer-term role on my team.

Selection: Dean Kukan

Dallas Stars

James: Dallas has some interesting options available for me. I could sign Jamie Oleksiak, but I think I will have an abundance of defensemen similar to him already. Ben Bishop is a great name, but I worry about his recent injury history and am not willing to take on his contract. This leads me to a player who has yet to make an NHL impact.

Adam Mascherin is a prospect center going into his age 23 season. He just put together a solid AHL campaign with 34 points in 37 games. I plan to start him out in the AHL this season, but he could push his way into the NHL lineup if he continues to build on his breakout year.

Selection: Adam Mascherin

Kyle: I’m not taking Ben Bishop. With him off the table, there are very few options I have interest in. I could gamble on one of the younger forwards. Joel Hanley is an interesting depth defenseman option, who has put up decent shot metrics. The problem is I really don’t need another bottom four, left-shot defenseman. Again, flipping him could be a possibility. From an asset management standpoint, Colton Point could be an under-the-radar selection. He hasn’t put up numbers that make him stand out, but he is a goalie who is waiver exempt. However, I have some other options to fill that void and unless there is a trade on the table for one of those options, I don’t need Point. 

I don’t love the idea of making an unrestricted free agent as my selection, but Dallas doesn’t have enough options to be overly concerned. I am signing and selecting Jamie Oleksiak to a four-year, $20M contract to play on my top pair with Dougie Hamilton. 

Selection: Jamie Oleksiak

Detroit Red Wings

James: There are a lot of different players who could possibly become decent third line options in the future or maybe turn into a second-pair defenseman. My selection, I would argue, is already a second-pair option. 

Troy Stecher an underrated “defensive” defensemen and will have some value on the trade market. While he is a decent player, I don’t think he will fit into my plans due to an abundance of defensemen available.

Selection: Troy Stetcher

Kyle: Detroit is interesting. I considered a wide range of players, with my focus most on Vladislav Namestnikov, Evgeny Svechnikov, Taro Hirose, Troy Stetcher, Christian Djoos, and Dennis Cholowski. As I started to build out my team, I realized I could have a team that could compete right out of the gate. I leaned on who has shown to be the best player in regard to controlling the shot quantity and quality. I don’t think any of the younger players have shown enough to gamble on them and I would worry about finding a spot on my team for them anyways.

My selection is Troy Stetcher, a player who has been a fairly strong play-driver and has experience playing in the Pacific Division.

Selection: Troy Stetcher

Edmonton Oilers

James: There is not an NHL player available in expansion that I want to take from this Edmonton team. That helps me narrow down my selection fairly easily to Tyler Benson. Once seen as a future top six player next to McDavid, he hasn’t reached the NHL as quickly as many fans were hoping he would. Now being left unprotected heading into his age 23 season, I am going to bank on that potential still being there. Benson will start off in the AHL again and look to build on a point per game season.

Selection: Tyler Benson 

Kyle: Edmonton is another team that I am not overly impressed with the options and would expect Seattle to need to be incentivized to select a player who is not Jujhar Khaira, Dominik Kahun, or Tyler Benson. Khaira would be a nice depth player, but I think there are better options out there to fill that role. I’m mostly between Kahun and Benson.

Ultimately, I chose to make Benson my selection. I need to add some players that I hope I can slip through waivers to send to the AHL. Otherwise, I will have to trade or draft players with no intention of signing them. My goal is to build an organization, not just a NHL team. Benson has lit up the AHL so maybe he can become a surprise player for my organization.

Selection: Tyler Benson

Florida Panthers

James: At this point, we know this is going to be Chris Driedger. He will be part of a tandem splitting time for me, unless one pulls away from the other.

Selection: Chris Driedger

Kyle: I decided to save time and just went with the selection that Seattle is rumored to be making.

Selection: Chris Driedger

Los Angeles Kings

James: There is some young talent on the board here (already crossed off Jonathan Quick). Athanasiou, Lizotte, and Wagner could all be useful for my bottom six. However, there is one player available who I think has more potential.

Kale Clague is my pick. The defenseman didn’t have the NHL start he wanted and is now left unprotected. He’ll only be 23, and there is still time to regroup in the AHL. That will be the plan for Clague at the start of the season, and hopefully he forces his way into my lineup or becomes a useful trade chip.

Selection: Kale Clague

Kyle: Jonathan Quick should not be the selection. With that out of the way, Los Angeles has a lot of interesting young players that could easily be justified as the pick. However, there is no one to get overly excited about either. Seattle will be picking someone who they think has the best potential. The Kings could also be used to help meet position requirements, which is how I ended up at my selection. I think Brendan Lemieux, Andreas Athanasiou, Blake Lizotte, and Carl Grundstrom are all forwards worthy of selection. However, I needed help hitting my defense quota.

My selection was Kale Clague, who has shown to be a pretty good possession driver in a limited sample. I would hope to sneak him to the AHL prior to the season.

Selection: Kale Clague

Minnesota Wild

James: This pick comes down to either Carson Soucy or Kaapo Kahkonen. Neither sticks out more than the other, so my decision comes down to how my roster is being built. With a couple other goalies in mind, I’m going to use the selection on Soucy.

Soucy seems to be a bottom pair defenseman who can fill in higher in the lineup. My team most likely will be deep enough defensively that he could get pushed out of the lineup. That’ll make him a prime trade candidate. 

Selection: Carson Soucy

Kyle: I could see an outside chance of Seattle signing Nick Bonino or Ian Cole and making them their selection. The only three players under contract that I would think are under consideration for Seattle are Nick Bjugstad, Carson Soucy, and Kaapo Kahkonen. Soucy fits the same profile as a lot of other defensemen that I have already selected. If there is a demand for these younger, left-shot defenseman Soucy could be the selection. However, I really like what Kahkonen provides.

My selection from Minnesota is Kaapo Kahkonen. He checks a lot of boxes for me. He is a young, waiver exempt goalie who has shown he can play in the NHL. The flexibility he provides the organization makes him well worth the selection.

Selection: Kaapo Kahkonen

Montreal Canadiens

James: I don’t want to get stuck with a contract like Price’s. There is one player here who I think is underrated and it is Brett Kulak. He will be my selection. While there may be an abundance of defenseman on my team, I am very happy to have him as an extra or on my bottom pair. He could be useful playing up in the lineup if need be. That being said, if a team came calling, I would be willing to part with him for the right price.

Selection: Brett Kulak

Kyle: I am not touching Carey Price or Shea Weber. I don’t know Jonathan Drouin’s situation so I don’t want to gamble on his cap hit. I like Phillip Danault but like Landeskog, expect him to want to test the open market. I think this selection is pretty easy.

I’m selecting Brett Kulak, to pair with Dean Kukan and make a very underrated bottom four defensive pair. Much of what I said for Kukan applies here too. Plus we all deserve a Kulak-Kukan pair.

Selection: Brett Kulak

Nashville Predators

James: There is absolutely no way I am taking Ryan Johansen or Matt Duchene from the Predators without an unreasonable amount of compensation for doing so. I do not want those contracts. There are other players available like Jarnkrok and Grimaldi, but my intention is to use the pick to get more depth. 

Yakov Trenin is the pick. A decent AHL forward, he is still just 25 and could be brought up if injuries struck the team. I’d rather bring in a cheap contract here and add valuable depth than create a bigger deal that could leave be with a bad contract.

Selection: Yakov Trenin

Kyle: I’m still mystified at Nashville’s expansion draft strategy. They made multiple trades that resulted in fairly weak returns and ended up protecting someone who is at best a 3rd pair defenseman. It seems they are looking to rebuild or re-tool and would like to shed one of their big salary centers, Ryan Johansen or Matt Duchene. I’m willing to oblige for a price, which I think I can get. If we look to Vegas, we see they were able to build a solid roster with the exception of having a top center. If I can extract some assets and fill that void, I’m willing to do it.

With me agreeing to take one of Johansen or Duchene, the decision comes down to which one. I think an argument can be made for each. Duchene is probably a better offensive producer but Johansen is probably a better two-way player. I’ll opt for the younger Johansen, who also has less term remaining. I also feel as if Nashville would rather move on from him. To take Johansen, at full price, I will receive David Farrance and Nashville’s 1st round pick.

Selection: Ryan Johansen with David Farrance and 19th overall

New Jersey Devils

James: There are some recognizable names in New Jersey, like P.K. Subban and Andreas Johnsson. It is tempting to bring in names like that, but there are other similar players much cheaper. Will Butcher is another possibility, but he hasn’t looked as great since his first full season.

With this pick, I take Nathan Bastian. He is a big forward who is still learning to use his size. As he grows into it, he could be an ideal pairing with Nick Ritchie on a grinding, yet skillful, third line.

Selection: Nathan Bastian

Kyle: P.K. Subban is too expensive. Will Butcher would add to a clog on my left defense side. With those two ruled out quickly, it comes down to Andreas Johnsson and Nathan Bastian. 

Johnsson and Bastian have provided New Jersey with very similar on-ice impacts. Bastian is cheaper and younger. He’s the easy selection.

Selection: Nathan Bastian

New York Islanders

James: It appears the Islanders have exposed a couple of decent players hoping to clear some cap space. Josh Bailey and Jordan Eberle could be real decent additions. Eberle, specifically, is a player who would be a great addition. I would love to take him and it almost pains me not too. That being said, it is tough to turn down a cheap asset in Kiefer Bellows.

Bellows hasn’t quite established himself yet in the NHL. However, he has a tool that is often coveted. Bellows can shoot the puck very well. Bringing in this kind of controllable shooting talent should be good for the future outlook of the team. He will be given a chance at earning an important role in this offense.

Selection: Kieffer Bellows

Kyle: Maybe New York wants me to take the bait and select one of Jordan Eberle and Josh Bailey to help them clear cap space. Richard Panik, Kieffer Bellows, and Michael Dal Colle are also strong contenders and cheaper options. I would attempt to get an asset for selecting one of Eberle or Bailey.

I am selecting Jordan Eberle who is just too good of a player to pass on regardless of if I can get an asset for doing so. As I built my team, I was having trouble filling my second-line RW spot. Eberle fills that perfectly. I’m building a contender so I’m taking a contract that I don’t love but also don’t hate and probably doing the Islanders a favor in the process.

Selection: Jordan Eberle

New York Rangers

James: Colin Blackwell is my pick here. He is a forward who will simply outproduce his contract this season. While he will most likely be my fourth line center, I’m happy to have the versatile forward who can slot in anywhere in my lineup if needed.

Selection: Colin Blackwell

Kyle: This is Julien Gauthier or Colin Blackwell unless Seattle comes out of left right field and selects Anthony Deangelo. I’m not doing that but I’ve gone back and forth but ultimately stuck to my philosophy of drafting the younger player. If I need to save a few dollars on the cap, Blackwell would be the selection.

I’m going to take Gauthier and pencil him in as an extra forward or in the AHL.

Selection: Julien Gauthier

Ottawa Senators

James: Dadonov and Tierney strike my eye as two players I would want. Then I look more into them and realize that they did not have great seasons last year. This allows me to find some more goalie depth.

Joey Daccord is my pick. He will play in the AHL and be a formidable pair with Korenar. This pick makes me feel good about my goalie depth, leaving me with one more NHL goalie spot.

Selection: Joey Daccord

Kyle: Ottawa does not have much at all. Evgeni Dadonov is too expensive to gamble on. I like Chris Tierney as a depth center but don’t know if I ultimately have room for him on my roster. If I can flip him or another depth player, like J.T. Compher, I consider selecting Tierney. Since I don’t think there is much opportunity cost for passing on him, I opt to make another strategic pick.

My selection is another waiver exempt goalie, Joey Daccord. I’m not expecting him to be a long-term solution in goal but does provide some flexibility for my organization.

Selection: Joey Daccord

Philadelphia Flyers

James: This pick really comes down to James Van Riemsdyk and Shayne Gostisbehere. Van Riemsdyk could slide into my top six behind Landeskog. The only real problem I have with that is his cap hit is a bit high. That leads me to taking Gostisbehere, who can provide solid mid pairing minutes and contribute as one of my powerplay defensemen.

Selection: Shayne Gostisbehere

Kyle: This is another selection where I might be taking the planted bait but I see an opportunity to contend immediately so I am going to take the player I think provides the best opportunity to do so. I think the pick comes down to Jakub Voracek, James van Riemsdyk (JVR), Shayne Gostibehere, and possibly Robert Hagg. 

In my opinion, JVR gives me the best opportunity to contend. He’s the selection.

Selection: James van Riemsdyk

Pittsburgh Penguins

James: For me, this is a tough decision between Jason Zucker and Marcus Pettersson. I ultimately end up choosing to select Pettersson. I think his defensive instincts could be a good pairing with Gostisbehere on my second d-pair. Another contributing factor is his cap hit is $4,025,175 for the next four seasons, giving me a controllable top four defenseman. 

Selection: Marcus Pettersson

Kyle: There are a lot of ways to go with this selection. I think you could easily justify selecting Jason Zucker, Zach Aston-Reese, Marcus Pettersson, Mark Friedman, or Casey DeSmith. Although I think there are better options for the role, I wouldn’t completely rule out Brandon Tanev either.

I ultimately selected Casey DeSmith. I think he was Pittsburgh’s best goalie but they chose to protect the inferior Tristian Jarry instead. I would be very tempted to switch this to Zach Aston-Reese and take Vitek Vanecek from Washington. Ultimately, I think DeSmith is better than Vanecek and Garnet Hathaway is equal or better to Aston-Reese. Taking DeSmith and Hathaway later will give me the best team right now.

Selection: Casey DeSmith

San Jose Sharks

James: There’s not really anybody worth taking here. I was close to taking Ryan Donato, but I’m about sold that he isn’t going to turn into anything more than a bottom six forward. I don’t really need to be signing another player for my bottom six, so he is crossed off the list. There are a decent amount of depth options available here. I could use a little defensive depth in the AHL, so I go with Jacob Middleton.

Selection: Jacob Middleton

Kyle: I frankly don’t have much interest in any of the Sharks’ players. Ryan Donato is a bigger name but he has negatively impacted his team. Alex True and Radim Simek are also possible selections. I nearly went with Kurtis Gabriel with the intention of not signing him but I needed to find another defenseman.

My selection is Nicolas Meloche. He’s a cheap defenseman, who had decent results in limited NHL action. I would likely be sending him to the AHL.

Selection: Nicolas Meloche

St. Louis Blues

James: Tarasenko is tempting, but I don’t love the gamble for the cap hit. I go with a younger, controllable asset in Vince Dunn. While he had a rough season this past year, he has flashed stellar play at times in the past and could be very useful for me as a trade chip.

Selection: Vince Dunn

Kyle: If this is anyone but Vince Dunn or Vladimir Tarasenko, I’d be shocked. Again, I’m taking the player I think can make me an immediate contender.

I’m taking Tarasenko to be my first line RW. Unless someone wants to blow me away with an offer, he’s staying on my team.

Selection: Vladimir Tarasenko

Tampa Bay Lightning

James: Tampa Bay is in need of clearing some space, so I will step right up and help them. In order to take Tyler Johnson off of their hands, it’s going to cost them. They don’t have a first this year so I’m looking at players as the return. Yanni Gourde, Cal Foote, and Alex Barre-Boulet are the return for agreeing to take Tyler Johnson. Tampa was iffy, but they were about to lose Gourde for nothing. I’m essentially taking Johnson for Foote and Barre-Boulet.

Selection: Tyler Johnson, Receive: Yanni Gourde, Cal Foote, Barre-Boulet

Kyle: There is a balance here between holding Tampa Bay hostage to getting the best player for my team. I would really like to extract some younger assets from Tampa but I also really want to pick Yanni Gourde to play on my second-line with Niederriter and Eberle. That line will hopefully be an elite possession line. Even if I were to extract a Cal Foote or Mathieu Joseph, I’m probably going to be in danger of losing them on waivers. 

The pick is Yanni Gourde and I’m going to grab some draft picks for taking a player with a higher cap hit after threatening Tampa with picking Foote and Joseph.  

Selection: Yanni Gourde and Tampa’s 2021 & 2023 3rd round draft picks

Toronto Maple Leafs

James: Speaking with Toronto brings about another side deal for this expansion draft. They just acquired Jared McCann and don’t want him to be taken. Because of that, it’s going to cost them a prospect. I will take Alex Kerfoot off of their hands, helping them clear a little bit of cap space as well. This cost them 22-year-old prospect Pontus Holmberg.

Selection: Alex Kerfoot, Receive: Pontus Holmberg

Kyle: This pick has to come down to Alex Kerfoot and Jared McCann. Did Toronto acquire McCann because they wanted him to be taken or did they acquire him to replace Kerfoot? I’m not going to predict a side deal and just take the player I prefer. Both players would slot in the same spot on my team so they are interchangeable players. 

I prefer McCann so he is the selection. If Toronto wants to provide me with any sort of decent asset, I’ll take Kerfoot.

Selection: Jared McCann

Vancouver Canucks

James: While presumably rivals once the season starts, a side deal has been made with Vancouver. In exchange for taking Loui Eriksson as a cap dump, I will be swapping the SEA 2021 2nd round pick (34th overall) for VAN’s 2021 1st round pick (9th overall). Vancouver needed cap space badly and I took advantage. I will bury Eriksson in the AHL for the season.

Selection: Loui Eriksson, Receive: VAN 2021 1st round pick.

Kyle: No one from Vancouver excites me. I haven’t left myself with enough cap space to be incentivized to take Eriksson if Vancouver is offering. Maybe I would make some different decisions if they really made it worth my time. I view the Vancouver selection as nothing more than filling out AHL depth 

Assuming an offer I can’t refuse for Eriksson isn’t there, I take Kole Lind with the goal of sending him to the AHL. 

Selection: Kole Lind

Washington Capitals

James: Washington has some pretty decent options available. Ovechkin isn’t happening. At forward, I could take Conor Sheary, who will be making a cheap $735,000 the next two seasons. Defensive options include Justin Schultz, Brenden Dillon, and Nick Jensen. However, as I was drafting, I knew that Vitek Vanecek was available with a $716,667 cap hit for this upcoming season. He will be my pick and will be part of my NHL tandem with Driedger. I will look for Vanecek to build on this past season. If he doesn’t take a step forward, the contract allows me flexibility to upgrade in the future.

Selection: Vitek Vanecek

Kyle: Washington has enough options where I could go many different ways. Carl Hagelin, Garnet Hathaway, Conor Sheary, Justin Schultz, Brenden Dillon, Nick Jensen, and Vitek Vanecek would all be worthy selections. I think my other selections on defense to fill my bottom four are just as good, if not better, and cheaper than the options from Washington so it comes down to a forward or Vanecek. Vanecek showed flashes but I prefer Dreidger, Kahkonen, and DeSmith to Vanecek. I don’t feel confident enough in Conor Sheary to select him. This pick comes down to Hagelin and Hathaway.

My selection is Hathaway. I really like what Hathaway would bring to the team and have some concerns over Hagelin’s age. Hathaway is one of the best role players in the league and an elite penalty killer. His contract is also very reasonable.

Selection: Garnet Hathaway

Winnipeg Jets

James: This Winnipeg selection is fairly easy. Dylan DeMelo and Mason Appleton are the two players I would be interested in. With DeMelo having a cap hit of $3,000,000 and not really having a spot on my team, I’m going to go with Mason Appleton. I will add him to my group of young forwards. While I’d be happy to have him in my starting lineup on opening night, he could be used in a trade if need be. 

Selection: Mason Appleton

Kyle: I basically have the same thoughts as James though I am probably a little more bullish on including him in my lineup instead of flipping him. However, if someone wanted to offer me something I couldn’t refuse, I can find another player to play on my third line. 

Selection: Mason Appleton

Post Expansion Trades

James: There are some post expansion trades that I have made in order to round out my team. The first trade I made was sending Kevin Shattenkirk (50% retained, $1,800,000) to the Carolina Hurricanes for the CAR 2022 2nd round pick. They wanted to bring in a right shot defenseman who can work the powerplay since they know they are losing Dougie Hamilton in free agency. 

The second trade was moving Carson Soucy to the Senators for the SJS 2021 2nd round pick. Soucy didn’t really fit into my team, as I have Giordano, Pettersson, Bean, and Kulak penciled in on the left side. I’m able to add some draft capital, while Ottawa was able to strengthen their blueline. 

With trade number three, I send Troy Stecher to the Montreal Canadiens for the CHI 2021 3rd round pick and the MTL 2021 5th round pick. I really didn’t have room for Stecher on this team. Montreal is able to get a cheap, yet impactful right handed option to without giving up any coveted assets. 

My last trade is the biggest for my team. I send Vince Dunn, the 2021 VAN 1st round pick (9th overall), and the FLA 2021 3rd round pick (originally sent by BUF to not take Borgen) to the Sabres in exchange for the RFA rights to Sam Reinhart. I do have the ability to add to the deal if needed, with players such as Mason Appleton and Alex Barre-Boulet being available. Reinhart will then be signed to an eight year deal worth $7,500,000 per season. 

Kyle: I didn’t come up with any definite trades but I certainly have players I am looking to move and a price to move them. I am sure there will be enough suitors to make that happen. My goal is to move one or two of my young, left-shot defensemen. On the left side, I have Jamie Oleksiak, Brett Kulak, Haydn Fleury, Kale Clague, Jeremy Lauzon (I would take Connor Cliffton or Jakub Zboril instead if I were flipping any of them), and Oliver Kylington. I am keeping Oleksiak and would need a fairly strong offer to move Kulak as well. I really want to use these assets to help build my farm system. My preference would be to acquire players that have not turned pro or are waiver exempt. I’d also be very interested in using them to stockpile some draft picks. 

In my ideal world, I trade Lauzon (or another Boston defensemen) and Fleury (or another Duck defenseman) and play Kylington with Stetcher. I’ll assume I can accomplish that.

Post Expansion Signings

James: My first signing will be RW Joel Armia for 2 years at a $2,500,000 AAV (average annual value). My second signing will be LW Drake Caggiula for 1 year at a $800,000 AAV. My third and biggest signing will be right handed defenseman Dougie Hamilton for 7 years at a $9,000,000 AAV. 

Kyle: I had agreed to terms with Dougie Hamilton during the negotiation window but we agreed to wait until after the expansion draft to finalize the contract to allow me to draft Nino Niederreiter from Carolina. He will sign a $63M, seven year deal. I might try to do the same with Jamie Oleksiak as well so I can draft another depth goalie in Colton Point but I ultimately signed and made him my selection.

Seattle Kraken Lineup

James: This team is built to have about $1,700,000 in cap space. I feel very comfortable that my team can push for a playoff spot within the Pacific division. I believe that the team will have enough prospects and picks through the expansion and amatuer drafts to make the necessary moves (probably top 6 winger) at the deadline to stay in contention.

Kyle: I have virtually no cap space remaining for this season but very little committed in future seasons with Hamilton’s contract the only I would have long-term concerns about. I also assembled what I believe to be an elite team. My only potential short-coming is possibly not leveraging my position to extract more future assets. However, I have given myself next offseason to make significant moves as well, especially if things go south. Goaltending might be my biggest concern but I hope the combination of Dreidger, DeSmith, and Kahkonen can hold down the fort.

Again, a big thanks to Capfriendly.com for their expansion draft tool. Naturalstattrick.com has also become an invaluable reference for advanced metrics!

James Finch has been an analyst at AFP Analytics and worked with the Rochester Americans as a data collection specialist. James graduated from St. John Fisher College in 2019 with a bachelor’s degree in Sport Management with a minor in Economics. His background with sports and economics have brought about an interest in gaining experience and finding his niche within the sport analytics field.

KYLE STICH is the Director of AFP Analytics.  In addition, Mr. Stich is a tax specialist and Director of Operations at AFP Consulting LLC, whose clientele include professional athletes performing services on three separate continents. Mr. Stich earned his Master of Science in Sport Management with a Concentration in Sport Analytics from Columbia University in 2017. He earned his undergraduate degrees in Accounting and Sport Management from St. John Fisher College in 2015, where he has served as an adjunct professor teaching Sport Finance and Baseball Analytics.

2021 NHL Draft Preview

There has been plenty of talk around the 2021 NHL draft. There is a narrative that it is a “weaker” draft. I’m not sure I 100% buy that. There certainly is not a guaranteed star player that will go first overall. It appears people have become accustomed to that being the case with the likes of Connor McDavid (2015), Auston Matthews (2016), Rasmus Dahlin (2018), Jack Hughes (2019), and Alexis Lafreniere (2020) being recent first overall picks. The only year missing from the past six draft is 2017 that saw Nico Hischier go first overall. He didn’t have the same hype around him but has developed into a quality NHL player whose biggest issues in the league have been injuries. To me, the 2021 NHL draft is very similar to the 2014 draft. We’ll get back to that later. The biggest concern I have around the draft is the amount of data that we have on the prospects given the shortened or cancelled seasons around the world due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which will continue until people get the free, safe, and effective vaccine.

Process

I have previously built and back tested a logistic regression model that takes publicly available stats from player performance across leagues throughout the world to determine probabilities of a player playing at least 200 NHL games. I factor in performances during their two years prior to them being draft and adjust their probabilities based on age. Basically, the better a player is at a younger age, the better his chance of success. This is why the model has produced Luke Hughes as the top prospect. There are a couple of cutoffs for data to be included. First, no tournament play is included. It represents far too small of a sample size. Second, a player would have had to play at least 10 games with a team to have those results included.

The model has a major advantage and major disadvantage when it comes to this year’s (and probably next year’s) drafts. The major advantage is I take into account two seasons so players who were good during their mostly complete 2019 seasons get credit for doing so. The major disadvantage is the model is built using publicly available counting statistics and those statistics logically should not be linearly scaled. Therefore, players who were able to play full (or close to full) seasons may have inflated probabilities relative to other prospects in this draft class (Matt Coronato). Conversely, players who played minimal games might have deflated probabilities.

Let’s also get a couple of other things out of the way. First, there are plenty of other quality and some are probably more robust models out there. I am not going to say my is the best and all the others should be ignored. Each one probably has their pluses and minuses. Just because a prospect has a high or low probability it doesn’t mean they are destined for NHL greatness or guaranteed to be a bust. It simply means that past players with similar production profiles played or didn’t play 200 NHL games. Also, I have used tiers to break apart the prospects. Just because one has a 69% chance of success and another a 63% chance, I think either would be a fine choice for a team. They should be picked in a similar spot in the draft and go before players with a far lower probability (say 40%). Finally, I watch a lot of NHL hockey. I do not watch many prospects. My recommendations are simply going to be based off the numbers. In an ideal world, the model results are combined with traditional scouting to better understand and rank players.  

Results

As you see, the model’s results are not as strong as many probably would expect for the three University of Michigan players. Although their games played is lower than a traditional college hockey season, many other players saw themselves playing significantly less games than usual. As such, Power, Johnson, and Beniers might have slightly deflated probabilities but based on the probabilities output, it is my opinion that these players might be receiving a little more hype than they should. Again, that by no means translates to them being busts. Conversely, you see a player like Matt Coronato having an extremely high probability. I don’t necessarily believe that means he should be a top five pick, but he is someone who probably should be taken sooner than many people seem to be predicting. 

In my opinion, the top three picks should be some order of Luke Hughes, Owen Power, and William Eklund. If I were drafting for each team, I would probably take William Eklund for Buffalo, Luke Hughes for Seattle, and Owen Power for Anaheim. I expect the reality to be Power to Buffalo, Beniers to Seattle, and Anaheim to reach for one of Guenther or McTavish though Eklund or Hughes should be the pick. Leaving Hughes would be ideal for New Jersey as they would be able to get a tremendous fit with an added bonus of pairing him with his brother. Although Columbus seems to love picking off the traditional board, I can’t see how they could justify passing on Eklund if he’s there for them at five.

Comparison to 2014 Draft

I mentioned in my introduction that I see this draft as very comparable to the 2014 draft. In that draft, Ekblad had the highest probability of success (~70%), which is probably not far off of where Power would have been had he played a usual NCAA schedule. There are also a lot of forwards that are fairly muddled at the top with no clear star standing out. If I was going to compare players, I would say Power is close to Ekblad, Beniers is close to Sam Bennett, Eklund should be Leon Draisaitl or Sam Reinhart but probably ends up William Nylander. I also like the overall draft comparison because there are no absolute stars at the top but a fair amount of depth in the first round but drops off fairly quickly after that. 

Conclusion

There is even more unknown about this draft than many others because of the impact of the pandemic on prospects’ 2020-2021 seasons with some barely playing a game. However, teams who make smart, data-driven decisions should fair just fine. There have been reports about the Sabres strongly valuing assets in this draft. Even though past history does not afford them the benefit of doubt, I personally, think there is value to be had, especially through the first round. Does that mean they should overvalue picks this year, absolutely not but they also shouldn’t undervalue them either, which seems to be the league wide approach. Seattle may end up in the same boat. If they could accumulate a similar amount of first round picks as Vegas, they too should have a very quality prospect pool to start their franchise with.

All data was collected from Elite Prospects.com

.KYLE STICH is the Director of AFP Analytics.  In addition, Mr. Stich is a tax specialist and Director of Operations at AFP Consulting LLC, whose clientele include professional athletes performing services on three separate continents. Mr. Stich earned his Master of Science in Sport Management with a Concentration in Sport Analytics from Columbia University in 2017. He earned his undergraduate degrees in Accounting and Sport Management from St. John Fisher College in 2015, where he has served as an adjunct professor teaching Sport Finance and Baseball Analytics.

Sabres 2021 Guide

Well Sabres’ fans, it’s that time of the year where you make an annual pilgrimage to my website for some analysis on the direction of the team is heading. I do appreciate everyone who reads and this always seems to be a popular choice. Here I am, once again, writing about a Sabres’ team that failed to make the playoffs, as they finished 31^st out of 31 teams. This offseason should be fun, at least for someone like me who enjoys the roster/asset management part of the sport as much, and possibly more than watching games (yes, I still watch plenty of hockey too). The team will have to navigate an expansion draft, the rookie draft with the first overall selection, and potential trades of multiple “core pieces.” In the past, I have generally written this piece by putting together a roster that I think is logical while making moves I consider fair. This year, I am going to break my discussion into multiple sections, expansion draft, trades, rookie draft, and free agency, and discuss what I would do (being reasonable) and my best guess at what the Sabres actually do. Let’s get rolling!

Expansion Draft

The Sabres don’t have a lot of tough decisions to make here but there are a few things they will have to consider. Ideally, they make some of the anticipated trades before submitting their protected list. However, I could see trade partners dragging their feet to not make their protection lists more complicated. If Buffalo is going to trade players like Jack Eichel, Sam Reinhart, or Rasmus Ristolainen, the goal has to be to maximize value. If that means having to steer Seattle in one direction or another to get a better return so be it. 

For example, if you can give Seattle your fourth-round pick to take Player A and then trade someone like Ristolainen for more than that, you have created what is referred to as an arbitrage, where you “pocket” the difference in value! I have a feeling this is the route Buffalo ends up going as they frankly don’t have many valuable assets to exposure without making any trades. Chances are a team acquiring a Eichel, Reinhart, or Ristolainen will have a slightly more difficult protection decision. If an acquiring team would need to expose multiple quality players, it would certainly “cost” more to steer Seattle away from one of them. A trade is certainly possible prior to the expansion draft but I think the organization ends up navigating the expansion draft first then make their trades between then and the prospect draft.

Protected List

I would be shocked if Buffalo did not choose to protect seven forwards, three defensemen, and a goalie. There are only two difficult decisions the team has to make and that is who will be the seventh forward and third defenseman. 

No Brainers

With Jeff Skinner agreeing to waive his no-move clause the only tough decision is who will be the third defensemen. At forward the team will protect Jack Eichel, Sam Reinhart, Casey Mittelstadt, and Victor Olofsson, Anders Bjork, Tage Thompson, and Rasmus Asplund. On defense, the team will definitely protect Rasmus Dahlin and Henri Jokiharju. The goalie decision is also pretty straight forward as Linus Ullmark, despite being an unrestricted free agent, is the only goalie worth protecting. If the team were to make a trade before the expansion freeze, acquiring a goalie to protect would make sense if they don’t get Ullmark signed. 

Jeff Skinner waiving his no-move clause is big for Buffalo as it removes a decision of who to protect between Bjork, Thompson, and Rasmus Asplund. Chances are Seattle won’t take Skinner and if they did, I don’t think that is a major problem for Buffalo. I think Skinner can still be a good player but will never live up to the $9M cap hit. If Seattle did take Skinner without being incentivized, the Sabres suddenly have an additional $9M in cap space. I think it is safe to assume Kyle Okposo, Cody Eakin, and Zemgus Girgensons remain exposed along with Skinner. On defense, it seems likely the final protection spot comes down to Will Borgen or Rasmus Ristolainen.

What I Expect to Happen

My guess is the organization chooses to make Ristolainen the third defenseman. This would leave Borgen and Colin Miller as attractive options for Seattle and unless Buffalo works out a side deal, they would likely lose Borgen. My guess is Seattle would have enough interest to Miller to be able to give them a mid-round pick to steer them there and that is what I expect will happen.

Predicted Reality: Seattle selects Colin Miller while obtaining Buffalo’s 2022 4^th round pick.

What I Would Do:

If you have read anything I have written in the past, you will know where I stand on Rasmus Ristolainen so there is no chance I am protecting him unless I already have a trade in place to get a significant return for him. If I lose him for nothing, I’m fine getting out from his cap hit. If Seattle picks and flips him for a mid-round pick, I’m also ok as that would be what I would probably have to pay them to take someone like Miller. To me, protecting Borgen is the no-brainer. He is closer to what people think Ristolainen is than what Ristolainen actually is. 

I would inquire what it would take for Seattle to select one of Girgensons, Eakin, or Okposo. I might also discuss the possibility of Skinner but if he waived as a favor but would prefer to stay in Buffalo, you have to honor that. If I could give up a third-round pick or less OR swap first overall for second overall to lose one of those three forwards, I would go that route.

My Result: Seattle selects and trades Rasmus Ristolainen 

Trades! Trades! Trades!

Although I wouldn’t blame Sabres’ fans if they avoided coverage of the team this offseason, I would be shocked if you were reading this and weren’t aware that Jack Eichel is almost certainly going to be traded and Sam Reinhart and Rasmus Ristolainen will likely be as well. For this section, I will discuss each of those players and what I expect to happen as well as what I would do. After those three players, I’ll discuss other trades.

Jack Eichel

It’s time to come to terms with it. Jack Eichel is getting traded this summer. There are certain disagreements between a team and player that can be overcome. Medical disagreements are not one of those. The only way it doesn’t happen is if every team is using the injury as an excuse to severely low-ball Adams. I don’t see that happening. Will some teams try to do so? Yes. However, a team whose best offer would be slightly weaker should still put that offer out there. Let me explain what I mean by that. I think most people would agree the two most desirable assets (that are realistic) for Buffalo would be Quinton Byfield (Los Angeles Kings) and Alexis Lafreniere (New York Rangers) with Trevor Zegras (Anaheim Ducks) not far behind. If the Kings or Rangers don’t want to part with those players, that’s within their right. It’s then within Kevyn Adams’ right to tell them they aren’t getting Eichel then. Now, Anaheim is in the driver’s seat if they will part with Zegras. If they won’t part with Zegras, someone else then moves to the top. At some point, a team has to realize this is their best and probably only chance to get Jack Eichel and be willing to part with what Adams wants.

What I Expect to Happen

It seems like Byfield and Lafreniere are off the table. The Kings could still make something happen by including Alex Turcotte but if he is their centerpiece, their offer is likely to be on the same level (or less) than other offers. I would think out of principal, you take an offer from another team then since they are refusing to include Byfield. With all of the reports coming out of Buffalo, it seems like the team to connect the dots with is Anaheim. The Sabres seem to covet a second top 5 selection so they can leave the draft with Owen Power and William Eklund. I find it unlikely they get Seattle’s second overall pick without giving up first overall or another high pick acquired separately. New Jersey sits at fourth overall and Columbus fifth overall. Columbus doesn’t have enough desirable assets to satisfy what Buffalo should be looking for in return for Eichel. New Jersey is one of the few teams that probably does not need to make this trade. If Buffalo is walking out of the draft with Power and Eklund, Adams will really need to work the phones or make a trade with Anaheim to get third overall.

In addition to having the seemingly coveted third overall pick, Anaheim has their share of attractive trade assets. If Buffalo could get a package centered around third overall and Trevor Zegras, that would be huge for the organization. My guess is they don’t get Zegras. I think this draft has plenty of talent at the top though no immediate impact player and getting Power and Eklund would be great for Buffalo’s long-term outlook. However, I would worry Buffalo is too focused on accomplishing this that they might pass up what I would consider a better deal. Let me be clear: I don’t think the deal I am about to predict is necessarily bad BUT I would probably do something different.

Predicted Reality: Buffalo acquires 3^rd overall, Maxime Comtois, Sonny Milano, Adam Henrique, and one additional pick/mid-level prospect for Jack Eichel

What I Would Do

Ideally, you don’t trade Jack Eichel but it seems like it is time for both parties to move on. With that in mind, I’m setting my price and seeing who is willing to meet it. I want at least a first round pick this year, a top prospect, a younger roster player, and some other piece of value. If Anaheim is willing to part with Zegras and third overall, they are firmly in the discussion for me. However, without Zegras included, I’m focused on pitting Vegas and Minnesota against each other. From Vegas, it starts with Peyton Krebs and Alex Tuch while I am looking for Marco Rossi (possibly Matt Boldy) and Kevin Fiala as the centerpieces. To me, these two teams should have the most motivation to get something done as a healthy Jack Eichel makes them legitimate Stanley Cup contenders. If you follow me on Twitter or read my draft preview from last year, it is no secret I am a member of the Marco Rossi fan club. His complications from COVID-19 are certainly a concern but I still view him as an elite prospect in the mold of Danny Briere. 

I feel as though Minnesota is the best fit for Jack Eichel. They are a contender, with elite depth players, top wingers, strong defense, and quality goaltending but lacking a first line center. They also just cleared $10M in salary cap space. Vegas is probably a legitimate top line center away from winning the Stanley Cup but would have to perform some cap gymnastics to make it work and frankly might be better off playing Krebs on his entry-level contract and keeping Tuch and whoever else would need to be moved over Eichel but I would have said the same thing last offseason with them sacrificing Nate Schmidt to sign Alex Pietrangelo.

If I asked for Minnesota’s and Vegas’s best offers, I would expect the following to be in the ballpark:

Minnesota: Rossi, Fiala, Kaapo Kahkonen & Victor Rask or Nico Sturm & Cam Talbot, plus one or possibly both 1^strounder picks.

Vegas: Krebs, Tuch, likely Reilly Smith (if it is Shea Theodore, the rest of the asking price goes down), 1^st round pick, New Jersey’s 2^nd round pick, Jack Dugan

My Result: Buffalo acquires Marco Rossi, Kevin Fiala, Kaapo Kahkonen, Victor Rask, 21^st overall for Jack Eichel

Sam Reinhart

Jack Eichel is gone. I will not confidently say the same about Sam Reinhart. It’s hard to read the situation. Does Buffalo want him back? Does Reinhart want to stay? Reinhart has a lot of control and leverage over the situation. He is one year removed from unrestricted free agency (UFA) and needs a new contract this offseason. If Reinhart wants out he can simply sign the team’s one-year qualifying offer, and force Buffalo’s hand. I think if Reinhart makes it clear that the only contract he is signing with Buffalo is a one-year deal, the organization needs to trade him. If Buffalo really doesn’t want to move him this summer they could go into the season and potentially move him at the deadline as there is a chance he could be more valuable then, especially if he clearly wants to be an UFA. If they do move to trade him, the best return for Buffalo would involve Reinhart agreeing to an extension with the acquiring team prior to executing the trade.

What I Would Do

I’ve said many times in the past that I would have already committed a long-term contract to Sam Reinhart. Whether that would matter right now, I don’t know. If Reinhart were willing to sign, I’d offer him a long-term contract paying him $8M+ per season. However, I’m not sure Reinhart would sign so I am going to move on to what I expect to happen without further discussion because that lines up with what I would do if Reinhart would choose not to sign.

What I Expect to Happen

This is probably where I am least confident in what will happen. First, I might be reading the situation wrong but I think Reinhart ends up being traded. Second, I don’t know who that trade partner might be. With Eichel, there is a lot of logic that can be applied and dots connected to come to good conclusions. With Reinhart, there are significantly more possible outcomes. A contender could view him as a one-year rental and want to pay a price to reflect it. A team could work out a sort of sign and trade to acquire him as a long-term asset. That team could be a contender or even a team looking to turn the corner, which would bring most of the league as possible destinations. Let’s think through logically to come up with a list of teams to focus on first. For Reinhart to sign long-term, the team would likely need to be closer to his native Vancouver or a team that is a contender who seems close to being so. 

Seattle is once again a wild card though probably more so for Reinhart than Eichel. Could Buffalo use Reinhart and a later first-round pick (21^st overall from Minnesota?) to get the 2^nd overall pick? Could Reinhart get that on his own? Could Seattle accumulate enough other desirable assets to peak Buffalo’s interest? Even though Seattle is very close to his hometown, I would wonder if he would commit to a long-term deal along with the trade given the uncertainty around how quick they could contend. Without him committing long-term, I’m not sure Buffalo gets the needed assets to make sense.

With Seattle out of the way, let’s look at the other teams that I think make the most sense. A lot of the teams that have been talked about as destinations for Eichel should also be considered as possibilities for Reinhart as he is probably the second best center available behind Eichel in talent and possibly the best for a team looking to minimize risk or with less cap space available. I would bet on one of the following teams acquiring him (in order of cap space): Vegas, Philadelphia, Calgary, Los Angeles, Vancouver, St. Louis, Anaheim, Nashville, Columbus, Colorado, or Minnesota. Of those, I like the fits of Vegas, Los Angeles, Minnesota, and Colorado the most. No team is acquiring both Eichel and Reinhart. I think Reinhart would provide any team with the ability to play as a very good 1C or elite 2C. He could also very easily slide over to play as an elite RW . With those teams and that knowledge, let’s look at why those four teams make sense and what assets Buffalo would be looking at.

I think Minnesota should be more aggressive for Eichel than Reinhart but if they somehow can’t make Eichel work, Reinhart would be a fine consolation prize. He would fit with what Minnesota currently has in their forward group. A lot of hard-competing, strong two-way players who aren’t the flashiest but get the job done. Reinhart could easily slot into Minnesota’s lineup as Kaprizov’s center and form a quality dual. Assuming Reinhart signs a long-term contract, many of the same assets previously discussed would be in play but the number of pieces will be less and Marco Rossi is probably off the table. I would think Buffalo would be looking at Matt Boldy, a 1^st round pick, and possibly Kappo Kakhonen.

Los Angeles is very interesting as Reinhart would provide them flexibility to either act as their 2C while Byfield (and possibly Turcotte) continue their development then slide to wing or even remain their long-term 2C. The downside with Reinhart, is his playing profile is very similar to the other top wingers already on the team. Byfield would be off the table in a trade for Reinhart. I would think the pieces that would be discussed would be Gabe Vilardi, Alex Turcotte, Artur Kaliyev, and the 8^th overall pick. Could Buffalo get two of those four assets? Possibly but they may have to take Jonathan Quick as well, which might not be the worst thing for Buffalo considering their current goaltending situation. I’m not here to say Quick is any sort of solution but with the team really needing to add two NHL goalies he would be fine to play for two years as a bridge in a tandem. If taking on Quick gets two valuable assets, you do it as Buffalo. My biggest concern with the Kings is if there is the ability to match up value to get the type of return they should be striving for. I could see the Kings having neither Turcotte or their 1^st round draft pick being on the table for Reinhart. If that’s the case, you move on.

I absolutely love the fit of Sam Reinhart on Vegas as a center between Max Pacioretty and Mark Stone. He also would count less against the cap than Eichel. The assets Buffalo would be looking at would be very similar to what was discussed above in the Eichel trade except the money Vegas would need to shed would not be as much. Unless Buffalo likes Cody Glass (I would probably steer clear), they probably would need to get Peyton Krebs back as the centerpiece. That could be a no-go for Vegas. An interesting kicker here is I could see Vegas having some interest in Rasmus Ristolainen as well, especially if they don’t bring back Alec Martinez. Could Buffalo send Reinhart and Ristolainen at 50% cap hit for Krebs, Tuch, and Smith? It probably would cost Buffalo one additional cost-controlled asset, like a Victor Olofsson, Rasmus Asplund, Anders Bjork, or Tage Thompson but that shouldn’t stop Buffalo. Again, value matching might be tough.

Much like Vegas, I really like Colorado as a fit for Reinhart. My gut feeling is Gabe Landeskog ends up leaving as an UFA. Reinhart could then slot in as his replacement. After Nazem Kadri’s playoff suspension, I have to wonder if Colorado wouldn’t like to replace him as the 2C. Reinhart could also fill that role for Colorado. Side note: I would think Kadri would be moved in a separate deal if Colorado were to move on. What return should Buffalo look for? I would want to make one of Bo Byram or Alex Newhook the centerpiece. Tyson Jost, Shane Bowers and Martin Kaut are other players that could be under some level of consideration. 

Predicted Trade: Buffalo acquires Peyton Krebs, Shea Theodore, and Reilly Smith for Sam Reinhart, Victor Olofsson, and Mattias Samuelsson. Smith would get flipped for a prospect or pick, possibly with salary retained

Rasmus Ristolainen

In my scenario, I allow Seattle to take Ristolainen. If that happens, I look to trade Colin Miller, who probably has a little less value but probably enough to offset what it would cost to steer Seattle away from Ristolainen and the foregone value of a Ristolainen trade. I could be wrong on this notion but I don’t have the same information as the Sabres’ organization, who should have an idea of the trade value of both Ristolainen and Miller. If the Sabres’ go the route I expect, they will still have to trade Ristolainen as he CANNOT under any circumstances be on the roster next season. Just because it is not what I would do, it is completely justifiable. 

Ristolainen is an extremely difficult player to predict a trade of. His underlying numbers have been terrible for basically the entirety of his career EXCEPT at the start of last season when he was playing with Jake McCabe. However, there still seem to be people who like what he brings to a team and some might look at how bad the Sabres’ have been in his time with the team and write-off his performance to that. I think in the right situation someone could get some value out of Ristolainen. He needs to play sheltered minutes (weaker opponents with more offensive zone starts) and could be a nice addition to a power play. He should not be looked at as a legit top four defenseman.

Frankly, I don’t know if Buffalo is getting more than a second-round pick or mid-level prospect for Ristolainen. I wonder if the best trade of Ristolainen is in a package to act as a sort of sweetener. As previously discussed, Buffalo seems locked in on the idea of having two high draft picks to draft both Power and Eklund and I wonder if trading Ristolainen could help accomplish that goal. Would a team like the New Jersey Devils have enough interest in Ristolainen to trade back from fourth overall? They shouldn’t but it’s worth wondering. I really struggle to pinpoint teams that are most likely to be involved. I feel like Chicago, Philadelphia, Calgary, Winnipeg, Colorado, and New Jersey are the most likely destinations with Vegas possibly lurking as previously discussed. Boston could be a darkhorse. I include Colorado on this list because of the possibility of them overcorrecting after their playoff defeat to a bigger, “grittier” Vegas team. I’m not sure a team that has a strong analytics department and seem to generally make moves that fall in line with smart analytic decisions.  

Considering the number of years, I predicted a Ristolainen trade to Winnipeg, I feel as though that ship has likely sailed already. I also don’t know if New Jersey is a great fit considering they would likely only have Ristolainen for a year or less after he expressed a desire to play for a contender and I don’t see New Jersey as that. My best guess is he ends up in Philadelphia, Chicago, or Calgary. Chicago likely has their eyes on bigger names such as Dougie Hamilton or Seth Jones. However, they seem to want to retool quickly and if they strike out on both, they could turn to Ristolainen. I think the same could be said for Philadelphia. Calgary is interesting as it seems like they are trying to shake things up and could use another right-shot defenseman. They also could put Ristolainen in a role that maximizes his abilities. I also think they have a decent chance at making the playoffs. I would love to get my hands on Andrew Mangiapane if I were Buffalo as he is an elite play driver but I can’t see Calgary doing that (or at least I would hope they wouldn’t). Maybe Buffalo could add to make that happen but I feel like Ristolainen is destined to be traded for a second or third round pick. 

Prediction: Buffalo acquires the 76^th overall pick from Calgary for Rasmus Ristolainen

Other Trades

I would say it’s unlikely Colin Miller is a Buffalo Sabre at the start of the 2022 season, whether he is Seattle’s expansion choice or traded after the draft. Basically, everything said above about Ristolainen could apply to Miller as well though there could be more suitors with him being under contract for cheaper. I don’t think the return would be much more than a mid-round draft pick. I would expect Buffalo to try to move Cody Eakin but I can’t imagine there being much, if any, interest. He was arguably the worst forward in the entire NHL last season. Maybe they could include him in one of their bigger trades but the most likely scenario is they have him as a depth forward that rarely plays while riding out the final year of his contract. 

Some other possible trade scenarios for Buffalo could revolve around a goaltender or weaponizing cap space to acquire some future assets. Another possibility, especially if the team takes Power first overall, is to trade one of their defensive prospects for a forward prospect to balance their organizational depth. As I’ve been discussing throughout, there could also be trades to try to secure William Eklund as well. I think that would be tough without getting a high pick for Eichel or Reinhart but if the organization is motivated enough they probably will have the assets to make it happen. 

Frankly, if the team makes the trades as discussed above, that would already be a massive amount of movement. If I am being realistic, the only other move could be a goalie and that probably depends on if one is included in an Eichel or Reinhart trade. If they don’t acquire one before the protection list is due, I don’t see them trading for one this offseason. The teams with the most protection issues in goal are Arizona (Adin Hill and Darcy Kuemper), Calgary (Tyler Parsons), Chicago (Lankinen and Delia), Minnesota (Talbot and Kahkonen), Montreal (Jake Allen), Pittsburgh (Jarry and DeSmith), St. Louis (Villie Husso), Vancouver (Braden Holtby), and Washington (Ilya Samsonov and Vitek Vanecek). I’ve already discussed Minnesota. The other players that I would have some interest in are either goalie from Arizona, Jake Allen, one of the Pittsburgh goalies, or one of the Washington goalies. 

Depending on how discussions with Ullmark are going, it would impact my sense of urgency. If Ullmark is likely to stay, I probably dip into free agency for a second goalie. If he has basically indicated he is gone, I’m probably trying to acquire a goalie between now and the expansion draft freeze. Another trade candidate could be Mikko Koskinen from Edmonton. He’s by no means a long-term solution but you may be able to extract an asset from Edmonton to take on his cap hit and use him as a bridge to your younger goalie.

Other Predicted Trades: None outside of possibly swapping some draft picks.

Other Trades I would make: Having already acquired Kahkonen, I will look to free agency for my goalie. Depending on interest, I might move Colin Miller. 

Free Agency

Veteran players are unlikely to be lining up to sign with the perpetually rebuilding Sabres if they have other options. However, I think the Sabres offer a few opportunities that could be intriguing. First, they likely will have cap space and could probably give a player a nice long-term deal. Second, there will be opportunities to take on bigger roles. Players coming off a down year could try to use Buffalo as a recovery destination. Finally, with the team likely to be out of contention at the trade deadline again, players could sign one-year contracts and expect to be traded to a contender for a playoff run a la Taylor Hall. With that in mind, let’s look at forwards that could be fits on longer term and one-year deals and then discuss defense, goalies, and their own free agents.

Long-Term Deals

I feel like Buffalo would love to add Gabe Landeskog but I don’t know how much interest he would have in coming to Buffalo even if they paid him a premium. Maybe he will strictly look to maximize his value which possibly gives Buffalo a chance. However, if he wants to remain with a playoff contender and is fine with going after a fair deal, Buffalo is probably out. I am personally not a huge Brandon Saad fan and it seems as though his on-ice impacts have been declining but I wonder if the same applies.

Although long-term is relative there are two other forwards that I think could be smart signings on deals with some term. They are Phillip Danault and Blake Coleman. Both players have proven to be elite or close to elite two-way players, dramatically improving their teams’ performance when they are on the ice. Why would either consider Buffalo? First, they could play first or at worst second line roles this upcoming season. Second, they probably could leverage more money. From Buffalo’s perspective, both players could initially help provide some shelter for their younger players while not getting absolutely caved. Once those younger players are ready to step into bigger roles, you still have players that will provide tremendous value in your lineup even if they are playing lesser roles. Even though you may be paying them more than you should at the tail end of their contracts while they could be playing third line roles, they would be far from anchors. All of the top teams have been able to roll four solid lines that even if they aren’t scoring will positively impact their team with puck possession. For Danault, I might offer $24M over four years and Coleman $16M-$20M over four years. I would think Coleman would be more likely considering he has won two Cups and now could get a nice payday.

Another name that could fit here but I would stay away from is Casey Cizikas. You already let a similar player walk last year in Johan Larsson. You still have another similar player in Zemgus Girgensons. There are other players out there that would be cheaper, younger, and provide just as much value on the ice. I also would stay away from Barclay Goodrow. He was great this year for Tampa Bay but doesn’t have the same sustained success as Danault and Coleman. I would worry this season is too much of an outlier.

One Year Forwards

If Buffalo trades Eichel and Reinhart for mostly futures, they could look to add a couple veteran forwards to help shelter their younger players until the trade deadline then try to flip them for assets. There will probably be some options here. Players who might get financially squeezed or may be coming off a little of a down year could actually view Buffalo as a decent opportunity. There are plenty of forwards that could fit this bill so I will highlight a few. I could see Derek Stepan, Alex Wennberg, Jordan Martinook, Joel Armia, Alex Chiasson, Erik Haula, and Tomas Nosek fitting this bill. Stepan, Wennberg, or Martinook could slot into a quasi-top six center for Buffalo, an opportunity I don’t see them getting elsewhere. The others could probably get a little more money and potentially play top nine minutes.

Defense

I don’t see the team dipping much into the defensive market. Last season, they went with five young defensemen (Dahlin, Jokiharju, Borgen, Bryson, Samuelsson) who should all be back. They might need to do something to fill their sixth spot if they move on from both Ristolainen and Colin Miller. Maybe they retain Miller to fill the sixth spot but I could see them looking adding a couple low cost veterans to add a little depth and experience. If they are going to draft Power, there is no reason to pay anyone more than the minimum on a multi-year contract. The only exception might be Dougie Hamilton. Otherwise, I am looking for a RD to fill a bottom four role for the upcoming season and a veteran or two to be a seventh and possibly eighth defenseman. My top options would probably be Jason Demers, Jani Hakanpaa, and old friend Mark Pysyk. All have provided positive or nearly neutral on-ice impacts for most of their careers. That’s perfect for a potential sixth defenseman. Another way to add to this group would be to be incentivized to take on a contract from another team. PK Subban or Anton Stralman would be interesting options. They also could end up taking someone back in one of their bigger deals. I wouldn’t spend too much time looking at defensive options. More on this shortly but keeping Jake McCabe could be an option too.

Goaltending

This is probably the free agent list Sabres’ fans should spend the most time getting familiar with. I have already spent some time discussing but right now, the team has no one that should be counted on in the NHL next season. Tuukka Rask is the best goalie available. He isn’t coming to Buffalo. Jaro Halak is also not coming to Buffalo. The realistic goalies the Sabres should be interested in are Antti Raanta, James Reimer, Philipp Grubauer, Petr Mrazek, Jon Bernier, David Rittich, Brian Elliot, and Chris Driedger. If you are throwing money at Grubauer, it is probably because you envision him as a longer-term option. I think Buffalo is looking forward to having Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (UPL) and Erik Portillo as their future goalies. Overpaying someone like Grubauer (dollars and length) would not be smart future asset management. The team does not need a stud right now but more of a two to three-year bridge goalie. Of those, I like the fit of Petr Mrazek the best. He probably won’t command as much as Grubauer or even Driedger but was one of the best at saving goals above expected (Evolving-Hockey). Bernier, Rittich, Raanta, and Reimer were all pretty average and would be fine 1B type options. I think I would stay away from Freddie Andersen.

In-house free agents

All of the restricted free agents who played in Buffalo (Reinhart, Asplund, Mittelstadt, Borgen, Dahlin, and Jokiharju) should be qualified, allowing the team to retain their rights. Personally, I would look to try to sign each to a long-term contract. The team should have the cap space now and as long each continues to progress, they should be underpaid when the Sabres should be starting to contend. This is what Colorado and Tampa Bay have done and both teams have built legitimate long-term contenders. Outside of Reinhart, it is likely every other player is at a point where their value is at the lowest. Lock them in now. Reap the reward later. If done correctly, the team could have their entire trove of young players under team control for eight or more seasons! 

If the team did not bring a single one of their unrestricted free agents back, it would not be a huge issue. Linus Ullmark and Jake McCabe would be nice to retain but Ullmark is probably no more than a 1A/1B type goalie. If he will stay for that type of contract, you have a little less work to do. Otherwise, let him explore free agency and see if he can find a better option. McCabe was elite in the games he played last season but then sustained a serious knee injury. Much like Ullmark, he would be nice to retain but as the organization looks forward, it might be time for both parties to go their separate ways. If he is looking for a one-year deal to prove he is healthy, staying in Buffalo would make a lot of sense. As discussed earlier, the team will likely have one spot to fill on their blueline. Although the right- and left-handed split would be skewed toward left shots, McCabe has proven to be a high-end defensive defenseman. 

The team should let Matt Irwin, Brandon Davidson, and Tobias Rieder walk. If the team needs a depth player or two, I would have no problem with them bringing back one or both of Riley Sheahan and Drake Caggiula. Both would be far superior options to playing Cody Eakin.

Predicted Signings: Buffalo signs Petr Mrazek, David Rittich, and retains Jake McCabe plus two veteran depth defensemen

What I would do: Sign Phillip Danault, Mark Pysyk, and Petr Mrazek.

The Draft

Let’s keep this brief. Buffalo currently owns the first overall pick. They seem locked on Power at first overall and a want to get another top pick to possibly add William Eklund. Just because this draft doesn’t have a clear star at the top, there should be plenty of good players. I would compare this to the 2014 draft where Aaron Ekblad went first and Sam Reinhart second. There were plenty of good players in that draft. I’m not going to get into their other picks as that is purely guessing.

Predicted Result

I expect Buffalo to acquire the third overall pick. They will take Owen Power first and William Eklund third. 

What I Would Do

I really like William Eklund and Luke Hughes as prospects. I don’t have a problem with Power either. If I can add Rossi and Krebs to my prospect pool, I think I would be set down the middle. I was able to flip Reinhart for Shea Theodore. With enough young defensemen in my system, I go for my top forward prospect who also fills a need and select William Eklund at 1^st overall.

Lineups

One thing that became apparent as I worked through this exercise is there are probably will be a lot of pieces coming back so Buffalo might be wise to do as I did with the Reinhart trade and add someone to up the return. I have no interest in using any buyouts or using assets to get out from contracts. I am not expecting to compete this year so I will ride out Eakin and Okposo’s contracts for now. There is no sense to stretch out cap hits and have them hindering me as I look to become a contender.

Predicted LineupLet’s start with my best guess to what Buffalo’s opening night lineup will look like. This is a lineup that lacks any sort of top end threat. It basically is rolling three middle-six quality lines. However, the pipeline is strong and there is reason for future optimism. 

Stats are courtesy of Natural Stat Trick and Evolving-Hockey. Contract and expansion data from cap friendly.com.

KYLE STICH is the Director of AFP Analytics.  In addition, Mr. Stich is a tax specialist and Director of Operations at AFP Consulting LLC, whose clientele include professional athletes performing services on three separate continents. Mr. Stich earned his Master of Science in Sport Management with a Concentration in Sport Analytics from Columbia University in 2017. He earned his undergraduate degrees in Accounting and Sport Management from St. John Fisher College in 2015, where he has served as an adjunct professor teaching Sport Finance and Baseball Analytics.

Sabres’ Problem is not Okposo!

The Sabres are struggling, bad, horrific, abysmal. Let’s settle on abysmal. Sabres fans are rightfully fed up and frustrated. I wouldn’t blame anyone who expresses their frustration so long as they aren’t crossing any lines. No player is blameless but some definitely deserve less blame and other more. 

One player over the years who has drawn fans’ ire is Kyle Okposo, who is in the fifth year of a seven-year contract that has a cap hit of $6M per season. Let’s start by being clear, the team hoped for much more from Okposo and I’m sure he hoped to contribute more. Some unfortunate injuries and other health complications along with age led to an incredibly steep decline and has put him firmly on lists of the worst contracts in the league and went from a bona fide top six player to a “bottom line grinder,” a role team ideally fills with players making no more than a million or two. 

The past couple games has seen Okposo elevated back into the team’s top six (it could be argued he was on their second line last year). This compounded with the team’s play has really angered fans especially in the wake of Jeff Skinner’s inexplicable benching for three games. Many are wondering how can Skinner be benched but Okposo exempt. The narrative is Okposo has been terrible this year. But has he really? Does he really deserve to be the odd man out? The scapegoat? His line was very effective last year and he was a big reason why. When I’ve been watching (yes I do actually watch the game) I’ve seen Okposo playing very similarly to last season. I’ve been a little confused why he has been the main target of fans’ and some analysts’ frustrations so I decided to take a look at some numbers. To me, the numbers paint a very interesting picture that hopefully will change the opinion slightly on Okposo and direct the ire in a more appropriate direction.

Before I dive into some numbers, I need you as the reader to keep an open mind. I am going to do my best to provide an unbiased discussion. Before we get into the numbers let’s establish a few things. First, I’m mainly looking at 5v5. Second, I’m not looking at individual scoring stats. Yes, you need goals from a $6M per year player but Okposo is far from the only one not scoring and frankly there are multiple players that fans should be more concerned with. Finally, I am not including GF% in any discussion. Again, the team isn’t scoring as a whole and aren’t getting enough saves so everyone’s GF% is bad. Instead, I am going to discuss some underlying shot metrics. In theory, players doing the things that lead to goals will eventually start scoring though the Sabres seem cursed so who knows ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.

Overall On-Ice Metrics

Let’s start by looking at how well the Sabres have controlled the shot share (CF%) and shot quality (xGF%) while he has been on the ice. Please note, all stats are 5v5 adjusted from NaturalStatTrick.

Overall, the Sabres have been clearly out played when Okposo has been on the ice. They are only taking 46% of the shots while only having 40% of the quality shots. That is certainly not a recipe for success. Clearly the team is getting hemmed in their own zone and not generating much in the offensive zone. It is easy to stop here and say yeah he’s bad. As I said earlier, while watching the games I felt like I saw a similar player. Again, please stay with me as I investigate further to see what’s going on. Let’s first compare these metrics from 2019 to 2020.

As we see above, there has been a substantial drop in performance! Last year the Sabres actually controlled player when he was on the ice! With the Sabres being less than stellar as a team at generating shots, especially those of quality, it is important to provide a little more context to the graph above. Below, I show the relative stats of Okposo. This shows us how much better (or worse) the team performs when Okposo is on the ice.

We already know Okposo has dropped off in 2020. What we didn’t know before is how much the team improved, especially in shot quality, with Okposo on the ice in 2019. The drop in xGF% Rel from 2019 to 2020 is incredible. To me, this is our first clue in our investigation.

To get a better understanding of what is driving these metrics, let’s take a look at the components of each. We’ll start with looking at shots for (CF/60) and against (CA/60) per 60. We want to ensure we are looking at per 60 metrics to have everything on an equal scale.

WOW! Okposo has been on the ice for nearly the same rate of shots for but have gotten absolutely shelled in shots against. Clearly, the team is spending more time in their own zone with him on the ice this year versus last year. I don’t know how we can place all the blame on Okposo for this. Let’s make this clue two in our investigation. For thoroughness, I will present the quality metrics as well but they paint a similar picture.

Let’s now look at the percent differences in shots for and against with Okposo on the ice versus off the ice in 2019 and 2020. Here, we want to see the shots against metric be negative as that indicates the team is allowing that percent fewer shots.

This further supports what we already have an idea of. The Sabres weren’t necessarily taking more shots with Okposo on the ice but they sure weren’t allowing them. You can take my word that the quality follows a similar trend and because the rates are quite small, I am going to skip presenting them as I would either have to skew the scales or else they would be difficult to differentiate.

We have learned a great deal by just looking at Okposo’s on-ice metrics. We know the team has generated similar offense but has gotten absolutely shelled defensively. We can acknowledge that players naturally decline as they age later in their careers so expecting some drop-in performance is natural. However, it seems inexplicable to me that one player alone can be solely responsible for this sort of defensive decline. To me, we need to take a look at his linemates and here we will find the key clue we are seeking.

Okposo’s 2020 Linemates

To further add to fans’ frustration with Okposo is the coaching staff started him with Cody Eakin and Tobias Rieder then stuck with it game in and game out, even as they completely changed every other line (including bringing players in and out of the lineup) despite the line being the worst in terms of on-ice metrics in the entire league. Finally, Sabres’ coach Ralph Krueger made a tweak and it was promoting Okposo to the second line. It sounds like an odd decision, promoting one third of the worst lines in hockey but as we dive into the numbers, we will see it actually has worked well for the team and oddly enough is one of the better decisions Krueger has made recently.

I could write an article on just Cody Eakin but the short of it is he is a shot quality AND quantity blackhole. I will present two graphs of the on-ice percentages showing a some of the wingers who have played with and without Eakin. I’ve excluded those that have played only a few minutes with and a significant number without. The first graph will show how well the team controls shot quantity and the second shows shot quality. Both graphs have the player with Eakin in blue and without in gold.

These graphs are not pretty. There is only one instance of a player performing better in any sense when he plays with Eakin opposed to when he plays with anyone but Eakin. That instance is Dylan Cozens’ shot share though the quality of those shots gets worse. Any Sabres’ fan still want to place the blame on Okposo? We clearly see a MAJOR problem has developed. Considering NO ONE has success with Eakin, I don’t know why Okposo should be an exception. Now, let’s take a look at similar graphs for Kyle Okposo. Like Eakin’s, blue is with Okposo, gold is without.

We have to be a little careful with sample size here because how strongly Krueger glued Okposo to Eakin and Rieder but Okposo has spent multiple games away from those players now and some clear trends are emerging. First, somehow Eakin and Rieder are worse! Second, outside of Asplund (and Hall’s shot quality), EVERY player has been better with Okposo. To me, the most important one to look at is Eric Staal. Prior to Krueger elevating Okposo, the Sabres were failing to control play with Staal on the ice. After putting Staal and Okposo together, that was no longer the case. It does make sense as both have lost a step but have previously been productive players. Their games seem to fit together. Personally, I would use Mittelstadt on the left wing and play them more as a third line but Hall hasn’t suffered playing with them either.

For thoroughness, I do want to present the same graphs from above but expressed in relative metrics just to account for the team’s overall drop in play. Eakin’s with, without will be first, followed by Okposo’s. Please note Thompson and Mittelstadt were removed because their relative numbers with Eakin were so poor they broke the scaling. The Sabres were >20% worse when they were on the ice with Eakin.

The relative metrics do absolutely nothing to change the narrative I have already presented for Eakin. The same can be said of Okposo.

Conclusion

So, what have we learned? Well… Cody Eakin is bad. Really bad. If you as a Sabres’ fan wants to express frustration over a who should be scratched, I strongly recommend you lessen your questions about Okposo and start asking about Cody Eakin. If asked, I’m sure Krueger would say they need Eakin for penalty kill or faceoffs. Okposo in a very limited sample has been very good on the penalty kill so swapping him for Eakin might actually improve that area of the game too. I will give Eakin credit for winning 54% of faceoffs. However, both Dylan Cozens and Riley Sheahan have won over 60% of the faceoffs they have taken (Cozens has only taken 26) so that could easily be replaced too. The Sabres should absolutely have been scratching a veteran player from the worst line in hockey but Okposo isn’t it. Cody Eakin is. If I were creating the forward lines I would roll with:

Skinner – Eichel – Reinhart

Hall – Cozens – Rieder

Mittelstadt – Staal – Okposo

Olofsson – Lazar – Sheahan

What do I know though? I’m just a guy with an Ivy League degree.

KYLE STICH is the Director of AFP Analytics.  In addition, Mr. Stich is a tax specialist and Director of Operations at AFP Consulting LLC, whose clientele include professional athletes performing services on three separate continents. Mr. Stich earned his Master of Science in Sport Management with a Concentration in Sport Analytics from Columbia University in 2017. He earned his undergraduate degrees in Accounting and Sport Management from St. John Fisher College in 2015, where he has served as an adjunct professor teaching Sport Finance and Baseball Analytics.

Assessing the 2020 Offseason Goalie Carousel

This NHL offseason will be one unlike any other for many reasons. One of the most interesting things to watch this offseason, in my opinion, will be the movement of goaltenders around the league. It seems like there is an unprecedented number of quality goaltenders who are scheduled to become unrestricted free agents. There are also teams finding themselves in a position where they have an excess of quality goalies and will probably looking to move one this offseason. Overall, I count over 20 teams that could have a new goaltending tandem next offseason.

Teams Likely to Stand Pat

Let’s start by getting the teams who are most likely not going to make any sort of move with their goalies. There is always a possibility of one of these teams surprising everyone and making a move. However, I am almost certain we will not see movement from Boston, Los Angeles, Florida, and Tampa. The New York Islanders’ will likely let Thomas Griess walk and roll with Varlamov and the rookie Ilya Sorokin. I also think Montreal will likely be all set now that they acquired Allen. They might look to trade Charlie Lindgren but I don’t think that will have a major impact on the rest of the goalie market. Winnipeg and Philadelphia recently re-signed Laurent Brossoit and Brian Elliott so they are also probably all set.

Teams That Will Look to Move a Goalie

Pittsburgh Penguins

The intrigue for this offseason will be three teams who have an excess of goalies in their organization and will likely make one available for trade. The biggest name available in the goalie market is likely to be Pittsburgh’s Matt Murray. The Penguins have three quality goaltenders and seem destined to have to move at least one this offseason as none of them are waiver exempt, meaning they can’t be sent to the minors without being exposed to every other team. Casey DeSmith is under contract for two more seasons at a very reasonable $1.25M per year. If I were looking for a goalie, he might be my top option but for a team already pushing the cap, I don’t think it would be smart to move him. He also has been the team’s best goalie over the past three seasons. 

Both Murray and Tristian Jarry are restricted free agents with arbitration rights. Murray and Jarry have performed similarly with Jarry trending in a better direction recently. The big difference between the two is Jarry’s next contract will likely be significantly cheaper. I don’t know how the goalies are viewed around the league but I wouldn’t be surprised if teams would give up more for Murray because of his past playoff success. If that’s the case, Pittsburgh would not hesitate to move Murray.

New York Rangers

The Rangers might have the best young goaltending tandem in the league with Alexandar Georgiev and Igor Shesterkin. They also just bought out the best goaltender from the mid-2000s to the late 2010s. That of course is Henrik Lundqvist. Of the two remaining, Shesterkin should be virtually untouchable. He has already shown to be a game-stealer and could be the next Lundqvist for the Rangers. Logically, it made the most sense to move on from Lundqvist. It also could be the costliest option for the Rangers. The cost of a buyout will be a cap hit of $5.5M next year and $1.5M the following, for a total cost of $7M. Lundqvist was slated to count for $8.5M against the cap. I don’t think this was a great option with the cap remaining flat and the team should have looked at all other options. If I were the Rangers, I would’ve tried to retain 50% of his cap hit and tried to get anything for him. I would think there would be a team out there who would have been willing to have Lundqvist for a year at a cap hit of $4.25M if there was an asset attached.

With Shesterkin being the clear-cut goalie of the future, I still wonder if it makes sense to entertain offers for Georgiev. Here is my logic: Georgiev’s ceiling in New York is a backup. His trade value might be the highest ever right now. He would definitely return an asset that could be used to make the team better right now. The downside to this approach is you would then go from a position of strength to having to spend in the free-agent market which might be a tough ask now that they have Lundqvist’s cap hit on the books. It’s a tough call. The only certainty is Shesterkin will be the starter next year.

Nashville Predators

I have much less confidence in saying Nashville will definitely move a goalie but I think they have a big decision to make and the best move for their team might be moving on from Pekka Rinne. Nashville is in a fairly good spot when it comes to the salary cap. They have just over $8M in space with most of their roster filled out. The bigger question is whether that roster is good enough. In the play-in round, Nashville gave Juuse Saros more playing time. His and Rinne’s performances have been very similar the last few seasons. I don’t think Nashville HAS to move Rinne but it would make a lot of sense. There are probably a couple of contenders in western Canada who might like to add Rinne to be their 1A starter. Moving Rinne would give Nashville $13M in cap space, without making any other moves, that they can use to tweak their roster. 

Moving Rinne could also make Nashville a “buyer” in the goalie market. I also think it is very possible that Nashville could roll with Saros and Connor Ingram, who has been very good in the AHL though he is still waivers exempt so Nashville would have some flexibility. Nashville will be a very interesting team to watch this offseason and their goalie decision makes it even much more so.

Arizona Coyotes

Arizona is very similar to Nashville. They have two similar goalies, in terms of performance, under contract for next season in Antti Raanta and Darcy Kuemper. They also just re-signed Adin Hill, which complicates matters slightly. Hill has no waiver exemption remaining, has shown glimpses of being a capable NHL goaltender, and is cheap. For a team that seems destined to be budget conscience next season, I can’t imagine they keep both Raanta and Kuemper while potentially losing Hill for nothing. The question is which goalie should Arizona look to move?  

Raanta and Kuemper have both been excellent goalies the past couple years for Arizona and it can be argued that they quietly have one of the best tandems in the league. The problem is both goalies have had some injury concerns, with Raanta missing more time. From a pure performance standpoint, Kuemper is probably the more desirable option. However, the contract situation of each goalie makes things a little more interesting. Kuemper is under contract for two more seasons at $4.5M average annual value (AAV) while Raanta has one year remaining with a cap hit of $4.25M. The kicker for Raanta is he only has $2M more in salary owed after a signing bonus is paid out. My guess is Arizona is more likely to move Kuemper for budget reasons but I think there will be suitors for Raanta as well.

Minnesota Wild

It seems Minnesota is looking to shake up their goaltending and their preference seems to be to trade Devon Dubynk as he carries a higher cap hit AND was the inferior performer last offseason. The one positive with Dubynk is his actual salary owed in $2.5M while his cap hit is $4.3M. Teams looking to manage an internal budget would make the most sense for Dubnyk. At this point in his career, he probably isn’t more than a 1B type of goalie. Alex Stalock would probably be the more attractive trade option but my guess is Minnesota would like to keep him.

Vegas Golden Knights

All eyes will be on Vegas as they pushed the first domino with the goalie market when they likely re-signed Robin Lehner. Lehner was probably the best goalie available and Vegas had the inside track to retain him. With Lehner signing, that likely makes Marc-Andre Fleury available. Vegas will likely try to trade Fleury but there might not be a robust market. I am not sure how many teams will be lining up for an aging goaltender who struggled this season and is under contract for two more years with a $7M cap hit. The one thing working is Vegas’s favor is Fleury is only owed $12.5M more in salary. This could make him attractive to a team looking to save actual dollars but still needing the cap hit, especially if Vegas retained some salary. If Vegas does what I expect, signing Lehner and trading Fleury, they will then put themselves in a position to need to add a goalie.

Toronto Maple Leafs

After acquiring Jack Campbell, having Freddie Andersen entering his final year of his contract, and being tight to the cap, Toronto puts themselves firmly in this discussion as a trade of Andersen is very possible. I don’t think it is a given that Andersen is traded but I do think Toronto listens to offers to see if they can improve their team. Andersen has been a solid option for Toronto but it could be argued that Campbell is the better option going forward. However, he would be an improvement for a number of teams. It all comes down to offers for him versus offers for other players and how much cap space they will need to clear.

Columbus Blue Jackets

Both Columbus goalies seem to have come up more frequently in rumors as time has gone on. I am not convinced Columbus will be a player in the goalie market. I think the most likely scenario is they stand pat. However, if someone wants to offer them a great asset(s) for one of Elvis Merzlikins or Joonas Korpisalo, they would probably be open to it. I just don’t know if another team will offer Columbus an asset that will make their team better and my read on them is that would be necessary to move one of them. Maybe my opinion of Columbus is wrong and they are looking to do a mini rebuild. If that’s the case, I think it is much more likely they move one of the goalies and are ok accepting a prospect(s) and/or pick(s). From a talent standpoint, both these goalies might be at or near the top of the board for goalies. If I were a team looking to acquire either, I would have some concerns about either replicating their performance if they are playing behind a different team. I would be more concerned with Korpisalo. 

Carolina Hurricanes

I think it is very possible that Carolina goes into next season with Reimer and Mrazek as their tandem again. However, if they want to get better, they should be in the market for an upgrade. If they pull that off, one of these goalies will need to be moved. Reimer was stronger in the 25 games he played but Mrazek shouldered the heavier workload, playing 40 games. Carolina would probably prefer to move Mrazek who is due $3.125M (same cap hit) but I think more teams will have interest in Reimer who counts $3.4M against the cap but will only cost $850,000. If Carolina can sign or trade for an upgrade, they should have no problem moving Reimer.

New Jersey Devils

I don’t think any teams will be lining up to take Corey Schneider BUT I do think New Jersey would like to move him if at all possible. So technically, Schneider would be considered available but I don’t think it’s likely he’s in high demand.

Buffalo Sabres

The team would certainly like to upgrade their goalie situation and part of that would ideally include moving Carter Hutton. I think there could be some interest in Hutton as he is relatively cheap and could come in as a veteran back-up. However, I don’t think there will be suitors until the market settles a little, which could put the team in an awkward situation if they sign someone and then are left with three goalies.

Colorado Avalanche

My guess is Colorado looks to stand pat but if they have the ability to add a bona fide starter then they likely will, which could make Philipp Grubauer or Pavel Francouz available. I don’t think it is overly likely as Colorado would be better suited to spend their resources elsewhere. However, I do want to include them as other teams might have interest and neither has much term on their contract and I wouldn’t count on Colorado committing big money to either so Colorado could be wise to get something in return before they have to make that decision.

Goalies Available

Now that I have discussed the goalies that I think could be available, in addition to the already known free agents, I would like to sort them into tiers so we can get a sense of what goalies would be fits for what team.

Starters

I don’t know how many “clear starters” are available but I do think there are some goalies who could start 50 games and do fine in that role. Goalies that fit this category are Darcy Kuemper (Antti Raanta could if he can be counted on to stay healthy), Matt Murray, Freddie Andersen, Joonas Korpisalo/Elvis Merzlikins, Alexandar Georgiev, and Jacob Markstrom. In addition to these goalies, there are four veterans who might be asked to fill this role. They are Braden Holtby, Corey Crawford, Marc-Andre Fleury, and Pekka Rinne. 

1A/1B Goalies

If you are a team with a decent goalie and are looking for someone to supplement them to form a split starter tandem, you may be in luck because I think that is where the strength of this market is. Most of the names discussed immediately above would be ideal to bring in for this situation, Andersen and Markstrom (possibly Kuemper too) would be exceptions. In this category, teams would definitely be looking at Reimer/Mrazek, Thomas Griess, Anton Khudobin, Cam Talbot, and Grubauer/Francouz. Aaron Dell is a borderline option here who more likely signs as a true backup option. Additionally, there are veterans who were former starters but their best days are likely behind them. Depending on how teams view some of these players, they could be 1B options. In this category, I would include Dubnyk, Jimmy Howard, Mike Smith, Ryan Miller, Lundqvist, and Craig Anderson.

Backups

Most of the options I mentioned as 1B options trickle down to here. Realistically, Dell, Howard, Smith, Miller, Elliot, Lundqvist, and Anderson would be better suited to be backups who would start no more than 30 games. The other options I would potentially add here are Schneider, Hutton, and Michael Hutchinson.

Team Fits

I have laid out who is available so the next step is to start to looking at team fits.

Chicago Blackhawks

Chicago currently has the rights to Malcolm Subban and Colin Delia under contract and their organizational depth is horrible. There is no chance they can go into next season with those as their only options. I highly doubt Robin Lehner would go back and would likely be out of the team’s price range. My bet is they look to get something done with Corey Crawford but if they are forced to pivot could look to Braden Holtby. Personally, I think Chicago might be wise to inquire about Joonas Korpisalo or Alexandar Georgiev. They really need a cost-controlled option who can perform at a high level and be an option going forward. If they could move out some salary Jacob Markstrom or Matt Murray could be definite possibilities. Trading Olli Maatta is a start but still not likely enough. If they remain tight to the cap, they could look to bring in a cheaper Thomas Griess or Anton Khudobin with the promise of making them the clear starter or roll the dice on a veteran. Chicago is not in a good position at all and are very tough to predict.

Prediction: Either re-sign Corey Crawford or trade for Joonas Korpisalo (rights to Dylan Strome, Pittsburgh’s 2^nd round pick)

Edmonton Oilers

Edmonton isn’t in quite as bad of shape as Chicago as they have more players under contract but are still staring at minimal cap space to improve their goaltending. Mikko Koskinen is counting $4.5M against the cap and could be a 1B option. However, for a team in a win-now situation, they wouldn’t be wise to rely on a 1A/1B tandem. I think they will look to get one of the more attractive options on the market. They have been connected to Matt Murray and Freddie Andersen. I’m not sure they can make Andersen work without sending Koskinen to Toronto and Toronto is going to want a serious return for that to happen. Fitting Matt Murray in won’t be easy either but my guess is that is where they turn.

Prediction: Edmonton trades the rights to Jesse Puljujarvi to Pittsburgh for the rights to Matt Murray

San Jose Sharks

If it doesn’t happen before publishing, it certainly sounds like the Sharks have their eyes on Devon Dubynk, which would be a bad idea. If they were acquiring him, they would have to have Minnesota retain some salary. I’m assuming Minnesota would be happy to move him so the price won’t be too high but should San Jose really be giving up an asset when they can sign a better option at a similar cost without giving up an asset? I would have thought Anton Khudobin would have been a tremendous fit. I am penciling in Dubynk so Khudobin will remain available.

Prediction: If they don’t trade for Dubnyk, sign Anton Khudobin

Minnesota Wild

Assuming Minnesota moves on from Dubnyk, they will find themselves looking for a starter as well. They have money to spend and probably could look to commit term to someone. I could see them firmly in the discussion for one of Crawford, Holtby, or Markstrom in free agency or Kuemper or Andersen via trade. Guerin has been looking to dramatically change his roster so I am going to make a bold prediction here. If my bold prediction does not happen, I would pencil Jacob Markstrom in here.

BOLD PREDICTION ALERT: Minnesota acquires Freddie Andersen, Alex Kerfoot, Justin Holl for Matt Dumba

Toronto Maple Leafs

With my prediction of the team trading Andersen, they will need to find a complement to Jack Campbell. I would see them looking to split games between Campbell and another goalie. I wonder if Lundqvist could be an option here. He has faced the pressure of playing in a big market and it would likely give him a better opportunity to play some games for a contender than many other options. The big question is if Lundqvist thinks Toronto is close enough to a championship contender. It might depend on how the rest of the market plays out. Does Toronto wait things out or look to strike quickly? Another option I really like for Toronto is Anton Khudobin. He performed incredibly well on the big stage when called upon and doesn’t seem like someone who will falter in a big market. If my trade scenario plays out, which might not be very likely, Toronto would be wise to strike quickly and I think Khudobin would fit better in that aspect.

Prediction: Sign Anton Khudobin 

Vancouver Canucks

My guess is Jacob Markstrom ends up leaving. Vancouver has an equal or better option in Demko and they don’t have much cap space. They would be much better taking money they may have set aside for Markstrom and use some of it to improve other aspects of their roster. The team likely needs a 1B type of option. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them potentially linked to a veteran goalie but outside of Mike Smith, I can’t imagine one of the others moving so far away from their previous homes. I think an option like Griess, Khudobin, or Talbot would make sense. Since I have already predicted Khudobin elsewhere, I will stick with Griess or Talbot here. I think Griess is the better option so he will be my pick.

Prediction: Sign Thomas Griess

Calgary Flames

Calgary needs to address their goaltending. David Rittich is a decent option but if Calgary wants to take any sort of step forward, improving their goaltending would go a long way. Their cap situation is not great but I think they will look to make a splash here. I see three or four names to pay attention to with Calgary. I think they will be talked about as destinations for Markstrom and Holtby. I could also see them talked about as a trade partner for Nashville if they look to move Rinne. The wild card here could be Marc-Andre Fleury. I’m not sure it would be a great fit unless he is bought out. My guess is Vegas tries to find a trade partner first. If not, the buyout could be an option but I think there will be other teams interested as well. It could all depend on what Fleury prioritizes. Markstrom would be the best option but also would command the most. I think this comes down to signing Holtby or trading for Rinne. A trade for Rinne would certainly be interesting since those two teams could be looking to make major changes to their cores. I thought long and hard about predicting another blockbuster for Rinne. I was thinking of a trade involving Monahan and Bennett for Rinne and Ryan Johansen. However, when it comes down to it, I don’t know if Calgary would improve themselves enough to justify the added salary cap hit.

Prediction: Sign Braden Holtby

Carolina Hurricanes

Carolina HAS to improve their goaltending. They are an elite team with average to below-average goaltending. With such a robust goalie market, now is the time to address it and find someone who can take care of the net for years to come. I don’t think it would make sense to not go for one of the top goalies available as Reimer and Mrazek are fine as a tandem that splits time. They could be connected to any of those I have discussed under the starter category. Assuming all of my other predictions are correct, the two goalies remaining that make sense here are Kuemper and Markstrom. I’m not convinced any team will meet the Coyotes’ demands for Kuemper. If Carolina misses out on Markstrom, they might turn their attention to Arizona but I think Markstrom would be a great fit for them. Signing Markstrom would mean they would need to move one of their returning goalies.

Prediction: Sign Jacob Markstrom (trade for Darcy Kuemper if Markstrom goes elsewhere) 

Buffalo Sabres

I am not convinced Buffalo will definitely make a move to upgrade their goalie situation. However, if an opportunity presents itself, I do think they will take advantage. The team has reportedly set an internal budget so they are probably looking for players that can cheaply improve their team. Enter James Reimer. Reimer is owed only $850,000 in salary this season despite having a $3.4M cap hit. He would be a massive upgrade on Carter Hutton. Assuming Carolina acquires Markstrom (or a similar caliber goalie), the price to acquire Reimer shouldn’t be too high. The only issue is what to do with Carter Hutton. Unless someone is without a goalie when the music stops, I think it would be very difficult to move him, which is why I am not convinced the team will acquire another goalie. Acquiring Reimer would give the team future flexibility to turn to Jonas Johannsson or Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen next year.

Prediction: Buffalo acquires James Reimer for conditional 2021 fourth that could become a 2022 3^rd

Ottawa Senators

Ottawa probably needs a starter. The question is how much they want to pay. They need to get to the salary cap floor. They would probably prefer to have less actual salary than cap hit. I think James Reimer could be a definite possibility here too. However, there is a goalie who they could acquire, with additional assets that would bring some credibility to the organization and fit the salary criteria. I think Marc-Andre Fleury to Ottawa would make a lot of sense. This would require some cooperation from Fleury but if he wants to play, get paid, and move closer to home, Ottawa would make plenty of sense. I think the team will improve a little but they will likely be far from a playoff contender. If Fleury’s top priority is to get another shot at the Cup, Ottawa might be a tough sell. However, I don’t see many other opportunities for him to play an unquestioned number one role. I’m not quite sure what Ottawa will do otherwise. Maybe they would try to add one of Talbot, Griess, or Khudobin with the promise of making them the starter. I don’t see Howard or Lundqvist going to Ottawa and they have already decided to move on from Craig Anderson. Maybe they would try to acquire Raanta from Arizona for a second-round pick. I also don’t think it is out of the realm of possibilities that they do nothing or go way off the board, select Yaroslav Askarov and try to get him in to play immediately, which might be tough with him under contract in the KHL.

Prediction: Ottawa acquires Marc-Andre Fleury, Jack Dugan for a conditional 2^nd round pick in 2021.

Vegas Golden Knights

With my prediction of Vegas moving Fleury, they would need to find a goalie to replace him as the backup as none of the in-house replacements are viable for a Cup contender. Vegas is close to winning and if they could move out Fleury’s contract and use it to upgrade their roster (Pietrangelo) they would probably go into next season as one of the favorites. This would make them a very attractive option for some of the veteran goalies. They probably could have their pick of any of them and might choose to add a King to their castle.

Prediction: Sign Henrik Lundqvist

Detroit Red Wings

With Detroit letting Howard walk, they are going to need to find someone to replace him. They could look to find a longer-term option but I don’t know if they would want to overpay a veteran like Holtby or Markstrom or if they would be willing to part with assets to acquire a younger goalie. Instead, I think they opt to find a complement to Jonathan Bernier. At this point, I have Talbot, Dell, Anderson, and Smith remaining as realistic options. I think any of them could be options but I will go for the goalie who is probably most interested in going someplace to get playing time.

Prediction: Sign Cam Talbot

Dallas Stars

I would imagine Dallas loses Anton Khudobin to free agency. He seems to have priced himself out of what they can afford. Bishop should be the unquestioned starter so they are likely looking for a backup option. Realistically, any of Dell, Anderson, Smith, or Howard could make sense for Dallas. Dallas could consider turning to Jake Ottinger as the backup sooner than later and if he were forced into action next season, he probably could hold his own. As such, I could see Dallas turning to a veteran backup to serve as a bridge to Ottinger. I could see anyone of Anderson, Smith, or Howard. For this prediction, I will go for the goalie one who performed the best last year.

Prediction: Sign Mike Smith

Anaheim Ducks

I think this decision is easy if Ryan Miller wants to be back. The only way this gets complicated is if Miller decides to retire as I don’t see him going elsewhere at this point in his career unless he wants to give himself one last shot at the Cup. Miller is a more than capable backup and would change some of these predictions if he came out and said he would be playing another year and looking for a contender. If Miller doesn’t come back, Anaheim may opt to just use Anthony Stolarz as their backup to save cap space. Otherwise, they would likely look to sign someone cheaply. I think one outside the box idea could be acquiring Carter Hutton from Buffalo with the Sabres retaining 50% of the cap hit. I’m not sure someone like Howard or Anderson would go to the west coast to a rebuilding team and get paid under $2M. Hutton would provide that.

Prediction: Retain Ryan Miller

New Jersey Devils

New Jersey is interesting in that they have two goalies under contract, with one being paid $6M per season. However, that goalie is Corey Schneider who has struggled and has sort of be kicked to the curb by New Jersey. Mackenzie Blackwood seems like he could develop into something. I’m not sure the team will look to make a big move but could look to add a complimentary piece to shore up the position. Someone like Talbot, Griess, or Khudobin could work but they will all likely opt to go somewhere with a better opportunity. Instead, the Devils could opt to sign someone who would be cheaper but has shown glimpses of being able to be a 1B goalie. If you’ve been reading along, you will probably realize Aaron Dell is still without a team. I could see Dell going to another team easily as well. He will not be left without a seat when the music stops.

Prediction: Sign Aaron Dell

Washington Capitals

I would not be shocked if Washington rolled with Pheonix Copley and Ilya Samsonov as their tandem. They will not be trading for anyone major. However, if they could add a veteran to the mix, I wouldn’t be surprised at all. If Lundqvist opts to remain on the east coast, he is a very likely target for Washington. I could also see Fleury as a possibility if he is bought out by Vegas. Aaron Dell could be a good option as well. However, since I have predicted them elsewhere, I will stick with one of the remaining veterans. At this point, we are down to Howard and Anderson as free agents. I’ll again predict the one who performed better last year. Much like I said about Hutton to Anaheim could be applied here as well.

Prediction: Sign Craig Anderson

St. Louis Blues

Everything said above about Washington could apply here too. If they can add someone for $1M, they probably do it instead of having Ville Husso serve as the backup. Husso is not waivers exempt but has not been great in the AHL the past two seasons after a promising start in North America. At this point, Jimmy Howard is the one goalie remaining and I think he would be a decent fit in St. Louis. I don’t want to make it sound like Carter Hutton is an attractive option but given his past success in St. Louis, he could be an alternative too.

Prediction: Sign Jimmy Howard

I think this is where the carousel stops. Are you dizzy? Through all of this, I have not left any UFA goalie who was on a team last year available. There are a couple of goalies I discussed as available who did not move in my predictions. These are goalies from Columbus, Arizona, and Pekka Rinne. The only team that I mentioned as a possibility to add a goalie was Colorado. I could see Lundqvist or even Fleury as a possibility there. I am not sure Nashville would trade Rinne there and I don’t know if Colorado would want to meet Arizona’s or Columbus’s asking price. Having said that, I would not be surprised if Colorado did make a move. Hopefully, some of my predictions turn out to be correct. However, these are all for fun with no inside information on any of these moves.

Stats are courtesy of naturalstattrick.com and contract data is courtesy of cap friendly.com.

KYLE STICH is the Director of AFP Analytics.  In addition, Mr. Stich is a tax specialist and Director of Operations at AFP Consulting LLC, whose clientele include professional athletes performing services on three separate continents. Mr. Stich earned his Master of Science in Sport Management with a Concentration in Sport Analytics from Columbia University in 2017. He earned his undergraduate degrees in Accounting and Sport Management from St. John Fisher College in 2015, where he has served as an adjunct professor teaching Sport Finance and Baseball Analytics.

Assessing 2020 NHL Draft Prospect Probabilities of Success

AFP Analytics is proud to release its first-ever NHL draft prospect rankings. The rankings are based on the development of a logistic regression model that assigns a probability of NHL success (playing a minimum number of games) to each prospect based on their performance in years leading up to their draft eligibility. This is an alpha edition of the model and only covers skaters. There is still work to be done but enough progress has also been made to throw our hat in the ring of the many prospect rankings. I would like to discuss some of the positives and shortcomings/future improvements of the model before presenting some of the results. 

First, I am happy that the model looks at each league independently. The only predictor of future results is past performance of players to come out of each league. No bias has been given to one league being better than another. One result that was telling is OHL players tended to have stronger probabilities so all things equal, I would lean toward drafting a player from that league, based on the alpha model. I have only built out the leagues where the majority of players are drafted from. I have probably captured at least 90% of players who will be drafted but some may have slipped through the cracks because their “league” has not yet been modeled.  

Another aspect that I am excited about is factoring in ages before 17. Currently, a player who played younger than 17 in any of the leagues that have been modeled will receive a probability of making the NHL for each age. More credit is given to players who performed at a high-level younger and sustained that ability. Currently, the combination of performance from different ages has been done subjectively. Included in this is no penalty for not appearing at an age younger than 17. Players who took a big step from age 16 to 17 are possibly going to be underrated by the model as their overall probability will be brought down by prior poor performances.

I think one of the major weaknesses is capturing defensemen in some of the leagues. I want to be clear that I don’t think that is the case across the board. For example, the OHL model produced strong results while the QMJHL did not. I have done my best to remove bias between forwards and defensemen. For example, when looking back to the 2014 draft, the model does favor Aaron Ekblad as the first overall selection. In regards to backtesting, some have been performed but it is something that I wished to have more time before the draft to flush it out.

Results

First, this should not be treated as a mock draft. There are many other considerations that go into drafting, especially when looking at players who have high probabilities of success. This is where scouting and intangibles come into play. However, I would question a team taking a forward with a 20% probability of success when one with 50% is available. 

Overall, this draft seems incredibly strong with much of that strength in the forward group. Please note, I will discuss individual players and team strategy a little later. I would like to first discuss some general trends. Below is a graph showing the probability of success from one to 300. In it, you will notice a couple of pivot points. 

First, when looking at the probabilities, I see a clear top eight, and all of those are forwards. The next major pivot point seems to come around pick 24, with only one defenseman cracking that tier. I believe there are also pivot points around 60 and 120. After that, it is pretty smooth till the end. In the top 60, I see eight additional defensemen to the one in the top 24. In the next 60, there are 23 defensemen, this includes possible top 10 pick Jamie Drysdale, who is probably the player that differs the most in this model compared to experts.

Top 24

Below you will find the top 23 skaters, which I have defined as players who have a probability of at least 40% of being successful in the NHL. When considering the Russian goalie Yaroslav Askarov has been evaluated as being a top prospect, I would consider 24 players in the top group. As previously mentioned, I have only included one defenseman and he isn’t the consensus top one among pundits. The other surprising names include Tyler Tulio, Yevgeni Oksentyuk, and Brett Berard.

With only one defenseman included, I wanted to also include the next tier for that position. These players have a probability of 30%. This is where we start to see some of the projected first-round defensemen. Why is this the case? There could be deficiencies with the model or the crop of defensemen might be very weak. I think the answer lies somewhere in the middle.

Draft/Team Strategy

I think the interesting conclusions I can draw from this modeling exercise is what teams are in good positions and some draft strategies that should be employed. Obviously, the Rangers are fortunate to be able to draft Alexis Lafreniere. It also appears the Sabres are the last team to be guaranteed a forward who should become an impact player. I find it unlikely that the top eight teams all draft a forward as we will likely see one of two potentially reaching for defensemen or deciding to draft Askarov. Assuming this to be true, this positions teams like Minnesota, Winnipeg, and Nashville incredibly well. They are either going to have someone drop to them OR be in a position to trade down. 

After the top eight or so picks, the next pivot point is in the mid-20s. Washington, Colorado, and St. Louis are likely going to be the last teams able to one of the players that I have put in the top five tiers. A team like Washington might be smart to leverage this position and try to get a deal done with Ottawa, the holder of four seconds this year, and three the next. There seems to be tremendous depth through the second round so a trade like this would give Ottawa a shot at a higher-end player while Washington could add some additional depth. 

As the draft moves into the later first round and second round, the strategy should be to trade down. There is a very smooth drop in talent throughout these picks and while there appears to be a drop after the second round, rounds three and four will also provide some value as well. If you can move down in the second and pick up a fourth for your efforts, you should do it. Once we get into the fifth round, you are pretty much-throwing darts at the board.

I am excited to see how this draft plays out and how these players start to develop. I am also excited to continue tweaking and improving the prediction model.

KYLE STICH is the Director of AFP Analytics.  In addition, Mr. Stich is a tax specialist and Director of Operations at AFP Consulting LLC, whose clientele include professional athletes performing services on three separate continents. Mr. Stich earned his Master of Science in Sport Management with a Concentration in Sport Analytics from Columbia University in 2017. He earned his undergraduate degrees in Accounting and Sport Management from St. John Fisher College in 2015, where he has served as an adjunct professor teaching Sport Finance and Baseball Analytics.

Predicting the Buffalo Sabres 2020 Roster

Every offseason I feel like I can write an interesting article on the Buffalo Sabres’ roster construction. This is the type of thing I thoroughly enjoy. It is a giant puzzle that has multiple pieces. Unlike a traditional puzzle, there are multiple ways the pieces could fit together to accomplish the same goal. Some combinations will probably look better than others but there is no exact solution to this problem.

Once again, I am going to try to discuss what my thought process would be if Kevyn Adams gave me a call and asked for my assistance (Kevyn, if you happen to be reading this, my contact info is on the website). Here, I am going to go through all the moves I would consider, in order of priority. Ultimately, I will come to some sort of roster that I think would give the team the best chance to be a playoff contender next season. I think getting there is possible but it will take some aggressive moves and some financial commitment.

Re-sign Sam Reinhart, Dominik Kahun, Victor Olofsson

Outside of Jack Eichel and Jeff Skinner, these three forwards may be the next three most important forwards for the Sabres next season, especially if they fail to add anyone significant at the position. The top priority HAS to be getting them under contract for next season. All three are scheduled to be restricted free agents with arbitration rights. Kahun and Olofsson are both young forwards who have shown promise in a limited sample of games (Kahun only ended up playing six games in Buffalo). 

Personally, I would look to sign Olofsson to a long-term contract. He has the type of shot that is going to allow him to be an effective goal scorer even as other abilities may decline. If Olofsson produces anything like he did in his rookie season and you sign him to a short-term deal, you might be pricing yourself out of him very quickly. The hope has to be to capitalize on the small sample size and flat cap to get Olofsson signed to a value contract. The problem is the team needs to be judicious with their spending as they have numerous areas of their roster where they need to improve. Striking a balance between spending more now and saving later will be critical. I have budgeted $4.5M for Olofsson. I would assume that would be enough to get him signed for some term.

Kahun is someone who is on his third organization in his only two years of playing in North America. He has shown promise but also doesn’t possess any unique skill that would make him impossible to replace if his future contracts start to get expensive. Unlike Olofsson, I would look to get a short-term deal done. For him, I have budgeted $2M, which is probably erring on the high end but that would be the correct way to go through this exercise. Underbudgeting would allow me to spend more money than I have. Being aggressive on the contracts would leave some wiggle room to either offer someone more or give the team cap space to work with through the season.

Sam Reinhart is probably the most interesting player in this group. I fully expect his name to be brought up in trade rumors this offseason. If the team is looking to make a major shakeup, he is one of the few players remaining in the organization that fit the bill. To me, Reinhart is not “untouchable” but a trade offer for him would need to be overwhelming. I am still not completely out on the idea of Reinhart playing center and would like to see him get a run as the second line center and play with good wingers. Even if you view Reinhart solely as a winger, it is undeniable that he is at worst a second-line winger and can more than hold his own on the top line. 

If you decide to trade Reinhart, you are basically looking for a Reinhart-like player in return. I think the only way you can trade Reinhart is if you get: 1) A clear-cut center to play on the second-line (almost should be capable of playing on the top line) or 2) A cheaper RW who can perform at a near identical level. Considering neither return is very likely, I think you are just spinning your wheels and gambling whatever player you bring in to replace Reinhart has similar chemistry with Eichel. As an aside, you already have a superstar player who has to be getting frustrated with the losing, I’m not sure trading his best friend on the team is going to stave off the frustration boiling over.

My goal is to lock Reinhart up to a long-term contract. I’ve set aside $7M to make that happen.

For these three restricted free agents, I would look to sign both Olofsson and Reinhart to long-term contracts. For Kahun, I would go short-term. For the three players, I have allocated $13.5M of cap space. To me, these are the no-brainer moves and with this business out of the way, I now have $20.5M in cap space to retool the rest of the roster.

Address 2^nd Line Center

How many times will I have to write about this until the Sabres get it right? There are a couple ways the team could address the position. If it were me, I would strongly consider giving Reinhart a look as the 2^nd line center. If he can handle the responsibilities, it would significantly balance the rest of the roster AND be the least costly option (both in terms of dollars and potentially assets). The problem is there simply isn’t enough data to form a conclusion that we can feel confident in. The last time Reinhart played center regularly was on the third-line between Seth Griffith and Benoit Pouliot. Assuming my memory is correct, those are not players that provide the best case study on whether Reinhart could be successful at center.  

Having said that, I highly doubt this will be the route Buffalo takes. Instead, I expect them to once again look to unrestricted free agency (UFA) or the trade market for someone under contract or to acquire the rights to a restricted free agent (RFA). I went through every player who I could envision being a possibility to acquire and coded them as green (go), yellow (proceed with caution), or red (avoid) based off how much better their team performed when they were on the ice, both in terms of shot quality and quantity. Although some consideration should be given to point production, I don’t think it should be the main factor for Buffalo. Whoever the team brings in is going to play with at least one of Jeff Skinner, Sam Reinhart, and Victor Olofsson. 

Ideally, the team adds a true second-line center but from my list of available options, I don’t see many realistic options to fill that role. If they can’t land one, fit becomes important. I think there are a couple of ways to approach fit. I think it is likely Kruger rolls Skinner on the second-line again. You need to find someone to compliment him. I do think Skinner’s two-way game is a little underrated. I don’t think he is a defensive liability by any means. That said, he also isn’t a defensive stalwart either. 

To compliment Skinner, I think the team needs to either find a creative offensive player and give the line favorable deployment or find a skater who can fly or find a responsible defensive center who would allow Skinner to “cheat” to offense. I am going to present the options I believe are realistic possibilities for the Sabres to acquire.

One consideration the Sabres have to discuss is the long-term outlook at the position. How high are they on Cozens taking over that role? Do they view him taking over after a season or further down the road? Obviously having an abundance of players who can fill the role of 2C effectively isn’t a problem but are you going to be comfortable potentially having $25M – $30M committed to three centers down the road? Are you comfortable with one playing on the third line or on the wing instead? This doesn’t preclude them from making any move but it does, in my opinion, impact the price they should be willing to pay and what players they might target.

Ideal Targets

If I were Buffalo, my first inquiries (in order) would be checking the availability of Anthony Cirelli, Phillip Danault, Andrew Copp, and Derek Stepan. 

Anthony Cirelli

I don’t know how available Cirelli would be but at some point, someone in Tampa will have to be the odd man out. Cirelli was good this year but borderline elite the year before. In the past two seasons, one of the best teams in the league did a better job controlling shot quality while Cirelli was on the ice. The Lightning also improved their shot differential last season but just about broke even this year when Cirelli was on the ice versus off. If available, I think the Sabres have to consider including Cozens in a trade for him. I would offer Colin Miller, Will Borgen, Casey Mittelstadt, and 2020 8^thoverall. I would assume Tampa would have their eyes on Jokiharju or Cozens. Acquiring Cirelli instantly gives Buffalo one of the best, young 1-2 punches down the middle. Because Eichel and Cirelli would fill the first two lines for a long-time, it makes parting with Cozens possible but still not desirable. I’m not sure parting with Jokiharju here would be the best move.

Likelihood: Low

Phillip Danault

When I was originally compiling my list, I didn’t include Danault because I didn’t think Montreal would have interest in moving him. However, after reading some of the reports out of Montreal this past week, it sounds like Danault could be more available than I originally anticipated. He would be an ideal target for Buffalo. I think a trade for him would have to come with an extension. On one hand, Danault is coming off an elite season where he should have been a Selke finalist, if not winner, so he might be looking to capitalize on that and parlay it into a nice contract. On the other, he has not consistently put up the numbers that traditionally lead to significant contracts. If you can get Danault for a reasonable price in a trade and sign him to a new contract, he would be a perfect addition for Buffalo. He would be a surefire 2^nd center for the next couple years. As he ages and Cozens begins to step into his prime, Danault is an elite two-way player who could easily slide down to the third-line and play a little more of a defensive role. If Danault can be traded for with an extension, the trigger has to be pulled.

I do not know how different players in general but especially prospects are valued by different teams in the NHL. If I’m Buffalo I look to offer Mathias Samuelsson, Rasmus Asplund, and Tage Thompson and see what Montreal thinks. Montreal might value one of those prospects highly or might prefer another. I would be hesitant to include Jacob Bryson but I think Samuelsson could be swapped for another defensive prospect. I think this trade partnership makes a lot of sense but them being in the same division makes me a little less confident of the teams making something happen. 

Likelihood: Moderate

Andrew Copp

The downside with Copp is he hasn’t been a major point producer and has mainly skated on the third line in Winnipeg. He did spend some time playing an expanded role during the restart and seemed to be perfectly fine. Pairing him with Skinner would allow Skinner some more freedom offensively and also give Skinner a center who can play with some speed. Winnipeg has been a better team with Copp on the ice for the past three seasons. I don’t see why the Sabres couldn’t count on him to help control play. Buffalo and Winnipeg have been connected as trade partners for over a year now. Is this the offseason where they finally pull off a trade?

I question how available Copp is. Winnipeg should look to swap a forward for a defenseman this offseason. I question if moving a quality center on a good contract is the way to go. To me, them moving a winger seems more likely. 

Much like Danult, Copp is a player who probably could handle the second-line until Cozens is ready to take that role. He could then move to the third line and be a great depth option. Contract wise, Copp probably would be reasonable as he will be arbitration eligible when his current contract expires. I would offer Ristolainen and Asplund for Copp. I would also consider Mittelstadt or Thompson instead of Asplund but I might need a little more in return.

Likelihood: Slightly more than Danault

Derek Stepan

Stepan will likely be available and I don’t think the assets needed would be too much either. Stepan didn’t move the needle much in Arizona either positively or negatively and is coming off a year with low point production. However, Stepan is still good enough to fill the role the Sabres would need him to and playing with Skinner might give him his best winger since his time with the Rangers. Stepan is probably on the wrong-side of the age curve but also is the type of player who seems like he could adapt if he loses some speed. There might be a little added motivation for him with UFA looming after next season. Lighting things up could pave the way for another nice contract.

I might like the idea of Stepan more than other observers. I think he would make the most sense from a pure asset management standpoint. First, he fills the needed role next season. Second, he should be fairly inexpensive to acquire. Third, he should serve as a good bridge to Cozens, who I think should be slotted into that spot for the 2021-2022 season. Finally, if the team once again finds themselves outside of the playoffs, Stepan probably could be traded at the deadline, possibly for a profit of assets. I think a 2^nd round pick gets it done. I also could see this trade evolving into something bigger.

Likelihood: Fairly

Other Options

I don’t think any of the solutions presented above are perfect as the perfect scenario is Dylan Cozens or Casey Mittelstadt coming in and grabbing hold of the position. However, going into the season with that as the plan again would be gross negligence. The next tier of solutions is a little more flawed than those above. Here I look at Erik Haula, Colin Wilson, Vlad Namestnikov, or Craig Smith who are UFAs, Dylan Strome, who is an RFA and might become a UFA with no qualifying offer. I think the most realistic trade option here is Alex Wennberg. 

I will not go as much into detail with these players but give a quick overview of why they could make sense. Craig Smith is probably the most attractive option but I am not sure how I feel about playing him at center. I could the Sabres signing him and it working out like Marcus Johansson where he is fine but plays out of his comfort zone. I don’t mind the idea of signing him but I don’t see him as an answer at 2C. Of these options, Wennberg probably is going to be the “safest” option as he has shown he can be a shot driver in Columbus but the quality of those shots has lacked. However, the point production has not been there and at $4.9M for three more seasons, I’m not sure that’s a contract I want to take on. I’m not sure I see Namestnikov as a fit in Buffalo. 

That leaves us with Haula, Wilson, and Strome. Haula and Wilson have had injury concerns. Of the two, I’d much rather roll the dice on Haula. Wilson would be low on my list. Strome is most interesting. First, he might not be as available as I think. If he is, putting him with Skinner would likely create a sort of glass cannon line. Strome has done better suppressing shots this past season but his value has largely come from his offensive generation. If the team went this route, they would certainly have to construct a good defensive line to help with matchups. 

Most likely other option: Erik Haula

Second Line Center Solution: Buffalo acquires Derek Stepan and the rights to goalie Adin Hill for 2020 2^nd round pick 

Sort out the Blueline

The Sabres currently have four right-handed defensemen under their control, Rasmus Ristolainen, Henri Jokiharju, and Colin Miller are under contract for next season while Brandon Montour is an RFA, who the team can retain by extending a qualifying offer to. The Sabres have $34M in cap space but I have just spent $20M of my cap space, leaving me with $14M to go about improving the rest of my roster. I would anticipate Montour’s next contract coming in around $4M. The team can’t go into next season with Ristolainen, Montour, and Miller accounting for over $13M, and one (or Jokiharju) will have to play on the left side. The Sabres will not get any better by having this happen again.

If I were working in the front office, I would go about determining who the odd man out should be in a logical manner. First, Jokiharju is the player I am least interested in trading. He is young, cost-controlled, and has shown he can be a positive play driver. I wouldn’t say he is untouchable but someone would have to blow me away with an offer to have me move him. That leaves us with Miller, Ristolainen, and Montour. 

I think an argument could be made for any of the three so it really comes down to fit and value for me. With Rasmus Dahlin coming into his third pro season, it is time to make him your unquestioned top-pair defenseman. The priority has to be putting him in the best position to succeed. If the team had more left-handed defensemen, I think an argument could be made to have Dahlin play on the right side but with a plethora of right-shot defensemen already, that makes little sense. Out of Montour, Miller, Ristolainen, and Jokiharju, Dahlin performed pretty well with the first two so one of those should have the inside track to play with Dahlin. Let me be clear, under no circumstances should Dahlin and Ristolainen be the team’s top pair next season. They haven’t shown the ability to spend more time in the offensive zone than their own end when paired together. Last season, Jokiharju was actually the worst partner for Dahlin so counting on that to work would be a risk that probably doesn’t need to be taken. I lean toward rolling Dahlin with Montour. They struggled with shot quality as a pair but were absolutely dominant in controlling the shot differential. Miller and Dahlin were very average together. I think there is a much better chance of Dahlin-Montour catching fire than Dahlin-Miller. 

Let’s pencil in a first pair of Dahlin-Montour. I think the chatter of Buffalo having some interest in Pietrangelo makes sense as they really could use a bona fide top RD to pair with Dahlin. However, unless someone unexpected becomes available, I just don’t see how the team can justify adding additional cost at a position where they have options already instead of spending to improve the roster elsewhere.

Next, we move onto the second pair. Here, we are currently looking at McCabe being the option on the left side and one of Jokiharju, Miller, or Ristolainen as the partner. Ristolainen and McCabe did not work last season so I don’t think that makes much sense. Out of Jokiharju and Miller, McCabe and Jokiharju did the most to improve the Sabres’ performance while paired together. That would then leave Miller and Ristolainen who played almost 60 minutes together last season and were an absolute disaster. To me, one of Miller or Ristolainen would need to be moved. I think Ristolainen will be viewed as more valuable by other teams around the league. I also would much rather shed his $5.4M cap hit than Miller’s $3.875M hit. Right now, I have penciled a blueline of:

Dahlin-Montour

McCabe-Jokiharju

Bryson-Miller

I think Jacob Bryson will be a really quality NHL defenseman and I believe he finished higher on the team’s organizational depth chart than Lawrence Pilut last season, which is one of the reasons I believe Pilut left for the KHL. These names are penciled in for a reason because I would be looking to see if there are options for improvement. 

I think the Sabres would be fine if they went into the season with that as their blueline. However, I think there are improvements that can be made. First, McCabe is entering the final year of his contract and will be a UFA next offseason. I’m not convinced he is a player that is part of a long-term solution. I would be very open to trading him this offseason and would definitely move him at the deadline if the team is out of playoff contention again. I also think there are a couple of current UFAs that would make sense to bring in on a short deal, allowing Bryson to start in the AHL and then be promoted during the season. Here, I would be targeting Brenden Dillon or Jon Merrill. However, the player I am most interested, who seems to be available is Vince Dunn from St. Louis. I might also inquire on the Islander’s Devon Toews. 

I think Dunn would be a tremendous pickup for Buffalo. His point production was not there last season but he has consistently been a tremendous possession and shot quality driver in his career. Sabres fans can think of him as a left-handed Henri Jokiharju. I am not sure exactly what St. Louis might be looking for to move Dunn so my offer in this exercise would be Jake McCabe, rights to Ryan Johnson, and Rasmus Asplund. In this case, St. Louis might want Buffalo to take Gunnarsson back. If I do that, I wouldn’t be happy to give up both Johnson and Asplund but I also am not letting that deter me from acquiring Dunn.

My other move on defense is to inquire on Merill and Brenden Dillon to see if I could sign one to a short contract. However, I have bigger moves still planned so I am not sure if one of those will be able to be fit in. If something else falls through, I might circle back. You will notice I haven’t addressed Ristolainen yet but know he will be traded shortly.

Trade: Buffalo acquires Vince Dunn for Jake McCabe, Ryan Johnson, and Rasmus Asplund

I have budgeted $4M to sign Dunn. I would hope it would be enough to lock him into a long-term deal. With Dunn coming off a season where he didn’t put up a lot of points, the team should be able capitalize and sign Dunn to a value contract. Dunn is a RFA without arbitration rights so the team could conceivably acquire him and play “hard ball” with his contract to save salary cap space.

Address Forward Group

My forward group for Buffalo is looking better with the acquisition of Derek Stepan but it is time for the team to get aggressive. Currently, here is how my lines would shake out

Olofsson – Eichel – Reinhart

Skinner – Stepan – Kahun

M. Johansson – Cozens – Thompson

Hole – Lazar – Okposo

First, I am bringing back Curtis Lazar and Tage Thompson. Lazar, I am giving a little raise to $800,000 and Thompson will get his qualifying offer of $874,125. Thompson showed glimpses of major improvement before getting injured late in his first NHL game of the season. With him still being waiver exempt, there is little risk in retaining him for another season. I am also open to including him in a trade if the opportunity presents itself but I am not counting on it. Lazar was a good fit last season and can work well on the 4^th line as a center and could move up in the lineup in event of injury. Much of what I said about Thompson also applies to Mittelstadt. The difference between the two is I anticipate Mittelstadt having more trade value.

I think Buffalo would be competitive with the above forward group but as I previously said, I would want to get aggressive and I think the moves I have made so far allow me some flexibility now. I have multiple forward targets that I think could slot into my forward group throughout the lineup. I break the UFA wingers I would have interest in into the following tiers:

1. Mikael Granlund, Tyler Toffoli
2. Craig Smith, Evgeni Dadonov
3. Hoffman, Fast
4. Maroon, Ennis, Nosek, Simmonds

Some other players that are on my radar are Andres Athanasiou, Chandler Stephenson, Jesper Bratt, Ryan Donato, Ryan Hartman, Nikolaj Ehlers, Mason Appleton, Alex Killorn, Jack Roslovic, and Johnny Gaudreau. I am realistically looking for right-wing solutions so Kahun can slide down to the third line and I don’t have to count on Thompson on being a regular. Since I have already traded away this year’s 2nd round pick, Ryan Johnson, Rasmus Asplund, and Jake McCabe my well is starting to run dry of assets that teams likely value enough to get an impactful player for while also leaving some sort of prospect pool. I still have all my 1st round picks, all my 2022 picks (less a 5th), and my 2^nd, 4^th, 6^th, and 7^th picks in 2021. As far as players go, I have Marcus Johansson, Kahun, Ristolainen, Mittelstadt, Thompson, Cozens, and all my defensive prospects outside Ryan Johnson. If I’m going to move Cozens, it has to be for a young player who has already established themselves as a really good player. Few teams are going to be willing to make that type of trade so I am not planning on moving Cozens. The other players are all firmly in play.

Trading Ristolainen

Last offseason we wrote about how the team should trade Ristolainen only to see them keep him through the season. With Botterill fired and Adams taking over, the time is now. Winnipeg has been the logical trade partner for over a year now. It’s time to get that trade done. If I were Buffalo, I’d strongly consider doing Ristolainen for Andrew Copp one for one and then use the extra cap space elsewhere. However, I don’t see how Winnipeg could make that work from a salary standpoint. Copp is a really good player signed to a very reasonable contract. With them having many other really good players who they are paying more, I think they have to look to move equal or greater money in a trade. Maybe a swap of McCabe for Copp could make sense. Instead, I will re-visit the player who has been most connected in a Ristolainen trade, Nikolaj Ehlers.

Getting Ehlers would be a major coup for Buffalo. Ehlers is coming off an elite season but because Winnipeg has a plethora of good, young forwards who are going to take up a significant amount of their salary cap, someone is likely going to have to be traded to bring in some defensive help. Buffalo would go from a question at 2^nd line RW to being in the discussion for the best top-six wingers in the league with Olofsson, Skinner, Ehlers, and Reinhart. I don’t think Ristolainen alone is enough to get Ehlers at this point. I am more than happy to include Mittelstadt, Thompson, and/or possibly one of my remaining defensive prospects. I would not give up my 8^th overall pick but I would be open to swapping it for Winnipeg’s tenth overall. 

Trade: Buffalo acquires Nikolaj Ehlers, 2020 10^th overall in exchange for Rasmus Ristolainen, Casey Mittelstadt, Marcus Davidsson, 2020 8^th overall, 2020 4^th round pick

I am starting to build a quality roster but I think I can improve even more. Here is where my forward group now stands:

Olofsson – Eichel – Reinhart

Skinner – Stepan – Ehlers

M. Johansson – Cozens – Kahun

Hole – Lazar – Okposo

I think this forward group is solid but I also want to have an eye on the Seattle expansion draft. Right now, I would have Cozens exempt and would protect Olofsson, Eichel, Reinhart, Skinner, Ehlers, Kahun, and probably Thompson. I’m fine with leaving Thompson unprotected if I can bring in a player that will have more of an immediate impact. I have had my eyes on Craig Smith. He would bring some versatility to this lineup and if one of my other moves falls through, he can slot in that position instead. I have budgeted $4M for Smith and would go more if I can’t pull off one of my other forward moves. Signing Smith now moves either Kahun or Johansson to the fourth line. It also puts me in a precarious cap situation. In order to bring in Smith, I am trading Marcus Johansson. I am looking to replenish some of my draft capital in return. Minnesota and Nashville are two teams that could make sense but the only limitation I have is Johansson’s 10 team no-trade list.

Signing: Craig Smith 4 years; $4M AAV

Trade: Buffalo acquires 2020 4^th round pick from Nashville for Marcus Johansson

I am not actively seeking to trade Johansson unless I have to for salary cap purposes. I am perfectly fine going into the season with him as long as I can move him back to left wing, his position of comfort. I think he would be a very good fit alongside Dylan Cozens. However, I see an opportunity to improve my team now and in the future so I am moving Johansson to do so. If Smith is a good fit, he gets protected in the expansion draft. If not, he becomes exposed. My forward group now looks like this:

Olofsson – Eichel – Reinhart

Skinner – Stepan – Ehlers

Kahun – Cozens – C. Smith

Hole – Lazar – Okposo

At this point, I probably could plug just about anyone into the open fourth line spot. I might consider Arttu Ruotsalainen at center with Lazar and Okposo on the wing. However, I believe I still have a hole in my lineup and that is on the power play. About halfway through last season, the Sabres moved Reinhart to the perimeter and Ristolainen to the net front on their top power play unit. They also really lacked a net front presence on their second unit. Regardless of whether the Sabres move Reinhart back to net front, they still would benefit from someone to fill that role on their second unit. I also think it is important to acknowledge the type of hockey the Sabres’ fourth line is going to play. Last season, Kyle Okposo played with Johan Larsson and Zemgus Girgensons. They were incredibly effective because they played a physical, grinding game and were certainly not flying up and down the ice. Lazar certainly has some speed but Okposo is not going to be able to keep up with two guys flying up and down the ice. 

I look at how Vegas has built their fourth line as inspiration while also keeping in mind I could use a power play net front guy. Some fans reading this might think this idea is crazy but I would look to bring Wayne Simmonds back on the fourth line or might look at Pat Maroon instead. I have budgeted $2M to fill this role. If I end up having to pay more somewhere else, this becomes a luxury and someone on a deal that pays them less than $1M might be inserted. I think from a pure numbers standpoint, Maroon makes more sense. Our contract predictions have him a slightly less expensive option and I think he is a more impactful player. This season is the first time in five seasons that Maroon’s team has not been better with him on the ice than when he was on the bench. The concern with him is he does appear to be trending downward so I would not be willing to give him more than one year. The same would be true of Simmonds. 

Signing: Pat Maroon 1 year; $1.5M AAV

Goaltending

I have acquired Aden Hill from Arizona along with Derek Stepan. Is he going to be an upgrade on Hutton? Possibly. If so, I would bury Hutton in the minors. If not, Hill can go to the minors or possibly be moved to another team. Grabbing Hill also sets the team up to be in a good position for the expansion draft. I know fans were frustrated with Carter Hutton last season. Linus Ullmark also hasn’t shown to be a completely dominant force either. Although an upgrade to the goalie position should be considered, I think anything more than a marginal upgrade would be too costly. The only reason I am making a significant investment this offseason is if I am not confident in a long-term solution of Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen/Ullmark/Eric Portillo. In that case, I might look at acquiring Tristian Jarry or Casey Desmith from Pittsburghs or Alexandar Georgiyev from the Rangers.

I am very hesitant to acquire another stopgap goalie like Hutton was intended to be out of fear of ending up in a similar situation in another two years. I’m going to operate that I have improved my roster enough where a poor goaltending performance can be overcome. The only way I make a change at goalie is if I fail to significantly improve my roster in other places. 

Final Roster

Below is my final roster. Please note that players whose names are red would be protected in the expansion draft while green ones are exempt.

I think this team looks tremendous on paper. The issue will be the salary cap and whether the organization will be willing to spend this type of money. The roster I have constructed leaves very little wiggle room for extras. The first cost-cutting option is not spending $2M for Maroon or Simmonds. By replacing them with a minimal player like CJ Smith, there is plenty of cap space. Another option would be to sign Olofsson to a one-year contract that would come in way under $4.5M. One concern that I would have is fitting Dahlin’s next contract into this roster with a flat cap. Next season, you would have Stepan’s $6.5M and the $2M fourth line money coming off the books. I also try to get Seattle to take one of Okposo, Montour, or Miller to free up more space. A little more movement might have to be done but I think it is workable. I would rather have too many good players than be devoid of talent. As long as that happens, the team should be able to trade someone to clear space and replenish assets. It’s time for the Sabres to get aggressive and this roster would do just that. 

Stats are courtesy of naturalstattrick.com and contract data is courtesy of cap friendly.com.

KYLE STICH is the Director of AFP Analytics.  In addition, Mr. Stich is a tax specialist and Director of Operations at AFP Consulting LLC, whose clientele include professional athletes performing services on three separate continents. Mr. Stich earned his Master of Science in Sport Management with a Concentration in Sport Analytics from Columbia University in 2017. He earned his undergraduate degrees in Accounting and Sport Management from St. John Fisher College in 2015, where he has served as an adjunct professor teaching Sport Finance and Baseball Analytics.

Grading Buffalo Sabres’ GM Jason Botterill: Part 2, Signings

The Buffalo Sabres recently fired General Manager Jason Botterill. The decision to do so has come as a shock after they previously announced he would be retained. I personally haven’t thought that he has done a great job but I also don’t know if going through another regime change, especially given all of the uncertainty in the world right now would be the best course of action for the organization. In this article series, I am going to go through every single move he has made since taking over the organization and grade them. I am going to break the series into four parts: NHL trades, NHL signings, the draft, and minor league management, and overall organizational management. I will provide an individual grade for every move, a grade for each segment, and finally an overall grade.

Before I begin grading, I should set my rubric and the guidelines on how I will arrive at the grade for every move. A good general manager needs to do two things well. First, they need to make good decisions. Second, they need to have good results. In my opinion, when grading a general manager, more weight should be placed on the decision-making process as it needs to be sound to lead to positive results. That said, there are some results that can be predicted and it is a decision maker’s job to do so. As I work through my grading, I will do my best to be objective. I will consider everything from advanced metrics to the current situation of the team. Ultimately though, these will be my opinions that I will try to back with reason.

The second part of the series will look at the signings he made during his tenure. I have discussed the signings in chronological order from oldest to most recent.

Victor Antipin, 1 year $925,000 AAV

In the first month and a half on the job, Botterill added three new defensemen, Nathan Beaulieu and Marco Scandella via trade, and Victor Antipin via free agency from the KHL. Antipin did not work out in Buffalo. A lot of the blame for that could fall on Phil Housely and the rest of the coaching staff. Botterill probably didn’t help the matter either but this grade is mainly based on the thought process and decision-making in signing Antipin. Antipin was a young defenseman who had been excelling in the KHL. He was another puck mover that the Sabres lacked. It seems like a lot of the leg work had been done by Botterill’s predecessor, Tim Murray, but much like the expansion draft trade, Botterill still had to execute and complete the signing. 

The idea of Antipin was tremendous. His signing had virtually no risk and a significant reward if things worked out. The signing of Antipin was Botterill’s best shot at finding a young, cheap, immediate impact puck-moving defenseman that could have slotted into the top four sooner than later. Antipin never got a fair shake in Buffalo but that doesn’t mean the signing was bad though it does prevent me from giving this signing an “A.”

Grade: B+

Linus Ullmark, 2 years, $750,000 AAV

This was a great signing for Botterill. It was pretty obvious that Ullmark would be in the NHL full-time during this contract and whether that was as a starter or backup, a $750,000 AAV would be a tremendous value. Ullmark had shown in the AHL that he was capable and was projecting well. This was a low-risk, high-reward signing for Botterill and one that was frankly a no-brainer. Any contract for Ullmark at or under a $1M AAV would have been acceptable.

Grade: A

Taylor Fedun, 2 years, $650,000 AAV

Fedun had previously proven to be an extremely valuable depth player for the organization and at times probably should’ve been one of the Sabres’ regular defensemen. There would definitely have been some demand for him had he hit the open market so being able to sign him to a deal worth the minimum (even if it guaranteed him more money in the AHL), was a nice get for Botterill. Ironically, things went south for Fedun in the organization soon after signing this contract. However, I think Botterill gets credit for getting the deal done as it seemed like a smart idea at the time of signing.

Grade: A-

Chad Johnson, 1 year, $2,500,000 AAV

The Sabres had been plagued by poor goaltending since the great purge in 2014-2015, where superb goaltending almost derailed the team’s run to the bottom. Since then, they struggled in net and Johnson was one of the issues from his first run with the team. Ironically, it was the goaltender in between Johnson’s stints, Andres Nilsson, who was probably the most consistent of the goalies. Addressing the backup goalie position was a necessity. I would have preferred seeing them keep Nilsson as he ended up signing a deal for the same AAV with Vancouver (though it was two years). However, the market that summer was fairly thin with other options so Botterill did well to get one of the better free-agent options. Of course, there are other routes he could have went to address the situation but I don’t think he did too poorly either. I generally don’t mind one-year contracts as they have little risk and the NHL salary cap system is use it or lose it so you might as well use it. Ultimately, Johnson turned out to be one of many of the problems the team had in route to another last-place finish so Botterill was fortunate to be able to walk away from him after only one season.

Grade: B

Benoit Pouliot, 1 year, $1,150,000 AAV

One of the Sabres’ weaknesses, when Botterill took over, was a major lack of depth. They had some good top-end skill players in Eichel, O’Reilly, Kane, Okposo, and Reinhart but things really fell off after that with an aged Brian Gionta and Matt Moulson being the only other forwards to produce more than 30 points (in all situations) on the season. Pouliot had shown flashes of scoring ability in the past as well as an ability to make his team better when he was on the ice. 

However, he was coming off a brutal season in Edmonton so he was able to be signed to a relatively cheap contract. The problem with the signing is it seemed more likely than not that his recent season was the start of a trend opposed to an abnormality because of his age. Signing Pouliot was a risk worth taking, however, Botterill should have anticipated he wouldn’t be much more than a third-line forward due to his aging curve. He had been trending downward the past few seasons and some research and the use of analytics would have indicated that would continue to be the case.

I like Botterill’s idea of signing Pouliot in an effort to provide more depth scoring, especially considering it was a low-risk deal. However, the results should have been more anticipated.

Grade: B

Jacob Josefson, 1 year, $700,000

Another signing aimed at improving organizational depth though there was nothing in his previous performances to suggest that he would add much. Realistically, Josefson should’ve strictly been a player for the Rochester Americans but he somehow played 39 games in Buffalo while missing a good amount of games with injuries. The Sabres were significantly worse with him on the ice. Overall, it was a low-risk move that seemed more aimed at improving organizational depth but circumstances changed that.

Grade: C-

Matt Tennyson

Basically, the same that was said for Josefson applies here. Phil Housley seemed to have some sort of favoritism toward Tennyson that had no statistical evidence to support. Had he strictly been an AHL player, this wouldn’t have been such an issue. Botterill could’ve pushed the issue as well by demoting Tennyson.

Grade: C-

Johan Larsson, 2 years, $1,475,000 AAV

Larsson has been an adequate fourth line player and good penalty killer for the Sabres over the years but shouldn’t be counted on to be much more than that. This should also be reflected in his pay. Although not horrible, Larsson was a restricted free agent (RFA) who had little negotiating leverage when Botterill signed him to this contract. The AAV on his contract shouldn’t have come in over $1M. I don’t think retaining Larsson was a major issue (and still don’t) but at the time, Botterill overpaid and needed to play more hardball in the negotiations.

Grade: C-

Robin Lehner, 1 year, $4M AAV

Tim Murray dealt Botterill a losing hand with Lehner and the overall goaltending situation. Botterill really had no other options than to retain Lehner and the way Lehner’s previous contract was structured forced Botterill into a contract with an AAV of at least $3,125,000 so Botterill bumped him further. Lehner was not bad prior to signing this contract but he also hadn’t shown enough to warrant this high of a salary, which would further increase in the team decided to retain him in any subsequent season. Botterill was stuck between a rock and a hard place with the goaltending situation. His options were to roll with Chad Johnson and one of Lehner or Ullmark. At the time, Lehner was the clear choice.

Grade: B-

Evan Rodrigues, 2 years, $650,000 AAV

At the time, Rodrigues had shown some signs that he could be an effective NHL player but also hadn’t shown enough to have complete confidence in him either. Botterill did well to get him signed to a two-year contract that paid him the minimum both years. His most effective season was easily his second year of the contract when he was arguably one of the team’s best forwards during the 2018-2019 season. He generated tremendous surplus value for the team. Frankly, there is nothing to find fault in for this contract. The worst case is Rodrigues was a depth player for the organization, shuttling between Rochester and Buffalo. Even if that had occurred, he was getting paid the minimum to do so.

Grade: A

Nathan Beaulieu, 2 years, $2,400,000 AAV

Botterill upped the price of this contract by simply trading for Beaulieu, who was arbitration-eligible. It is pretty hard to argue in an arbitration case that a player isn’t valuable when you just traded an asset to acquire him. I don’t think this contract was great but it wasn’t terrible either. I further discussed Beaulieu in the first part (the trades) of this series so I will not rehash it here. Had Beaulieu slotted onto the second pair, this would have been a fantastic contract. However, as a third-pair or worse defenseman, the value isn’t great. 

Grade: C

Zemgus Girgensons, 2 years, $1,600,000 AAV

Much like Johan Larsson, Girgensons has been a perfectly fine role player for the Sabres in his time with the team. He doesn’t make the team a whole lot better or worse when on the ice and is a fine penalty killer. He will never live up to his draft status but he will probably carve out a nice career in the NHL as a role player, whether that be in Buffalo or elsewhere. However, having a single role player take up $1.6M of cap space is not great cap management. It is even worse when you consider Botterill earlier in the offseason signed Larsson for $1.475M so he committed over $3M to two players who projected to be at best third line players and more realistically fourth liners. Girgensons has shown a little more than Larsson so it makes sense that he would be paid a little more. The problem with both is that it sets the floor for their next contract.

Grade: C-

Jack Eichel, 8 years, $10,000,000 AAV

Jack Eichel will arguably be the best player to ever wear a Sabres’ jersey. He was going to get paid at some point and it seemed like a contract around this was a foregone conclusion. In most cases, it makes more sense to sign a player to a long-term contract after their entry-level contract (ELC) EXPIRES. The keyword being expires. Eichel signed this contract before the final year of his ELC. Connor McDavid had set the bar for young superstars. Unless Eichel literally carried the Sabres to a Stanley Cup, I don’t think he was getting paid much more than the $10M AAV regardless of when he signed the contract. However, had he had a down year, the Sabres might have been able to save some money on his contract. It was unlikely to happen but there really was no reason to rush on this contract. No team was going to extend Eichel an offer sheet that the team wasn’t going to match. Retrospectively, this contract has proven to be better as more and more young players sign new contracts off their ELCs for more and more money.

Grade: B

Casey Nelson, 2 years, $812,000 AAV

I will say I might personally overvalue Casey Nelson. I think he has been a quality depth defenseman in the Sabres’ organization and provided a stabilizing presence when playing along some of the team’s young, puck-moving defensemen, namely Brendan Guhle and Rasmus Dahlin. However, he has never put up eye-popping numbers either so his contract was never going to be that high either. I think overall this was a solid deal for Botterill.

Grade: A-

Lawrence Pilut, 2 years, $925,000 AAV

I have generally avoided entry-level contracts but since Pilut was more of a free agent, I want to include him here. Pilut was chosen to be the Swedish Elite League Defenseman of the year (ahead of Rasmus Dahlin) so he clearly had the ability to play at the top level. The knock-on him was his size and the question of whether his game could translate. His stats indicated it likely would. This was a great move by Botterill to bring him into the organization. There was no risk in bringing Pilut into the organization and potential for a high reward. I will later address the management of Pilut in another part of the series so this grade will strictly be based on his signing.

Grade: A

Carter Hutton, 3 years, $2,750,000 AAV

Let me remind you that I am grading Botterill more on the decision-making process than the results. Going into the 2018 offseason, it was abundantly clear the Sabres needed to improve their goaltending situation. Ullmark appeared ready to be a full-time NHL goalie but being thrust into the full-time starter role didn’t seem like the best decision. The options on the market at the time were former Sabre, Jaro Halak, Petr Mrazek, Anton Khudobin, Jonathan Bernier, Cam Ward, and Hutton. If I had been in charge, I would have been targeting one of Halak, Mrazek, Khudobin, or Hutton. Mrazek signed for a little less than the other three but ultimately the contract for Hutton seemed to make sense. The only question is whether Botterill got his top choice. If so, we can question a little bit why he favored Hutton over the others. Ultimately, many analysts liked the signing at the time as many thought he could fetch another million-plus per year. Even though the results haven’t been ideal, Botterill gets high marks for this signing.

Grade: A-

Scott Wilson, 2 years, $1,050,000 AAV

Scott Wilson had proven to be a useful depth player for the organization but also hadn’t shown anything to indicate he was more than a bottom line player. If Wilson is in the minors, his salary doesn’t impact the Sabres’ cap situation. However, if the team does choose to recall him, they are paying a fourth-line player $300,000 more than the league minimum. When you consider Wilson along with his signings of Girgensons and Larsson in the previous offseason, he has likely cost himself over $1M in cap space by overpaying fourth line players. The good news is Wilson has been a quality player in his role bouncing between the NHL and AHL and has provided what the team has expected from him.

Grade: C+

Sam Reinhart, 2 years, $3,650,000 AAV

If we simply look at this contract as relative value, Botterill does fantastic here as Reinhart would clearly provide more value than $3,650,000 per season. The problem is signing Reinhart to a bridge contract was a HORRIBLE decision. I have written and research extensively on why bridge contracts for good players are bad ideas. Reinhart had put up good box score metrics but his real value was in the metrics that measure how he drove play. In Ryan O’Reilly’s last season with Buffalo, the only time the team was better during 5v5 play with O’Reilly on the ice was when Reinhart was one of his wingers! The easiest way for a GM to create future value for his team is to take advantage of a player putting up lower box score statistics while being a strong possession driver. In most negotiations, the contract value will be depressed if a player’s traditional stats are not as strong. 

At the time of signing, we at afpanalytics had predicted a long-term contract for Reinhart would be six years and carry an AAV between $5.5M and $6M. If the team had Reinhart locked in for that price, it would answer a lot of questions the team faces this coming offseason, where Reinhart will likely get a minimum of $8M per year. Botterill might have saved approximately $2M over two years but will now likely have to pay an extra $2M to $3M over the next four years. Remember when Botterill overpaid Larsson and Girgensons to a tune of at least $1M (combined)? That money could have been used instead to give Reinhart a long-term contract. Being generous with contracts for role players while playing hardball in negotiations for your top-line players is not going to be a long-term formula for success. Overall, the only reason this signing does not get a failing is that Botterill did well on the contract he did give.

Grade: D

Arttu Ruotsalainen, 3 years, $925,000 AAV

Much like what I have written for Lawerence Pilut and Victor Antipin, this signing comes with relatively low risk for a player who has shown he can produce against high-level competition. I think there is a little more uncertainty with Ruotsalainen than the others but I will never knock rolling the dice on younger players who have produced in Europe and can be signed for cheap contracts. If Ruotsalainen doesn’t pan out, the team isn’t out anything. If they find a hidden gem, it could be a big help in moving the team forward. I knock Botterill slightly for giving Ruotsalainen the ability to go back to Europe this year as he is a smaller player that will probably need to adjust to the smaller ice in North America.

Grade: A-

Jeff Skinner, 8 years, $9,000,000 AAV

Botterill had backed himself in between a rock and a hard place with this negotiation. By keeping Skinner and seeing him score 40 goals, Botterill had to retain Skinner. In order to do so, Botterill was going to have to pay and pay him enough to not test the free-agent market. We had predicted Skinner’s market value to be $8.5M per year on a seven-year contract. In order to deter Skinner from talking with other teams, Botterill was going to have to give him an offer he couldn’t refuse and the contract he signed was just that. Had Skinner left for nothing, it would have been a major hit to a team that is desperately seeking goal-scorers. On the flip side, it was apparent that Skinner was not going to continue to score 40 goals a season so his value to the team was never going to be as high as the contract. 

Overall, Botterill left himself little choice with Skinner once he was on the roster past the trade deadline. The problem is Skinner’s contract is going to be one of the main reasons the team is not as comfortably under the cap as they should be. The team needs more scoring production out of Skinner than they got this season. They need him to be part of the solution and not further their problems. I don’t mind that Botterill chose to keep a good player who has shown he can produce. I do take issue with how they managed him this year but that doesn’t severely impact the grade too much as this is based mainly on the decision at the time of signing. Had Skinner scored 40 or more goals again this season, the narrative is completely different.

Grade: C+

John Gilmour, 1 year, $700,000 AAV

I have generally skipped AHL signings but Gilmour spent enough time in Buffalo to warrant discussion. Gilmour was signed as a depth defenseman for the organization and he filled that role well. He provided speed and puck-moving abilities from the blueline. If Botterill hadn’t created such a logjam of defensemen, Gilmour had shown enough, in a limited sample, to be a bottom-pair player and the team probably would’ve been better for it. The knock here is Botterill added another defenseman to an already packed position in the organization.

Grade: B+

Curtis Lazar, 1 year, $700,000

Much like Gilmour, Lazar was signed to provide depth to the organization. Unlike Gilmour, Lazar spent a significant amount of time in the NHL and was a fine depth player. When Lazar was on the ice during 5v5 play, the team was outshot in quantity a little more than when he was on the bench but the Sabres’ took better quality shots. Lazar was also used on the penalty kill. When he was first called-up, he provided better-shot suppression but ultimately finished the season getting shelled on the penalty kill. Realistically, Lazar should have been playing over Sobotka for the entire season as he was a better version of a similar player.

Lazar also brought some intangibles that the team lacks. Every shift Lazar was on the ice, he played like it could be his last. He was never the most talented player on the ice but provided an energy that not everyone else on the team always brought. Lazar will never be more than a depth player but can play in the NHL. As long as Botterill realizes that going forward, everything will be ok.

Grade: A-

Zemgus Girgensons, 1 year, $1,600,000 AAV

Botterill previously signed Girgensons to a contract that set his qualifying offer at this price so he had already backed himself into a corner. The alternative would have been to not tender the qualifying offer and let Girgensons become an UFA. There is a chance that Botterill would’ve been able to bring him back at a lower price but it also would have given Girgensons the opportunity to negotiate with other teams and potentially sign with one of them. At the time, I didn’t think the team losing Girgensons would have been detrimental but I don’t know if it would have been a positive development either. Ultimately, Girgensons, Larsson, and Kyle Okposo combined to form a formable line that struggled to score but consistently controlled play. Could have the results been similar if one of Girgensons or Larsson were replaced? Possibly. To be consistent, I will grade mostly on the decision-making process and I am not 100% confident that Botterill made the best decision at the time but did do well to keep Girgensons with the qualifying offer.

Grade: C+

Marcus Johansson, 2 years, $4,500,000 AAV

I liked this signing for Botterill a lot. Johansson was the type of secondary scoring player the team had been lacking. According to our contract predictions, Botterill slightly overpaid on AAV but gave a year less in term than we anticipated so the contract was pretty solid. The downside is this contract pushed the Sabres into salary cap danger. The other problem with this signing is Botterill basically forced Johansson into playing center, a position that he hadn’t played in years and was left comfortable with, especially against the strong competition he faced on the second-line. Botterill will be knocked more in a future part of the series than he will be here as this was overall a good signing. The failure to properly address the second-line center position takes a little away but not enough to make this a poor grade.

Grade: B+

Johan Larsson, 1 year, $1,550,000 AAV

It seemed logical that the team would move on from at least one of Sobotka, Girgensons, or Larsson as they frankly fill a very similar role. Going into the offseason, an argument to lose any of them could have easily been made. Sobotka was clearly the weakest of the three players but the other two were the easiest to move on from. It seemed the team was poised to lose Larsson to Europe but ultimately things got done with the Sabres. Of the three, Larsson is probably the most valuable player so I don’t fault Botterill for bringing him back, especially since he was able to pay him less than Girgensons. I do have a problem with him bringing all three back. Larsson ultimately had a quality season and the team is going to be in a similar situation with him and Girgensons this offseason as they were last year. Although both players are replaceable, the two departing would create additional holes. I like the signing of Larsson slightly better than Girgensons but a lot said under each applies to both.

Grade: B-

Evan Rodrigues, 1 year, $2,000,000

In our contract predictions we had Rodrigues’ value at ~$2.3M AAV on a two-year contract so value-wise, Botterill did well. During the 2018-2019 season, Rodrigues was one of the team’s most impactful forwards. I thought there was a chance that he could’ve solved the team’s second-line center woes in the short-term. Instead, entitlement took hold and he became a toxin in the Sabres’ locker room. Despite his strong underlying metrics during the 2018-2019 season, Rodrigues quickly became a player who the team needed to move on from. Botterill gets high marks on the signing that will be slightly reduced because of poor results.

Grade: B+

Jake McCabe, 2 years, $2,850,000 AAV

I still don’t know what to think of Jake McCabe. He has had stretches of a season where he has been the Sabres’ best defender and also stretches where he has been the team’s worst defender. There were times when he was paired with Rasmus Ristolainen and it worked incredibly well and others where they were a complete disaster. In two of the past three seasons, the Sabres have overall been better with him on the ice. However, I fully expect McCabe to be at the top of the list of players available partly due to his inconsistent play throughout the season and partly due to the number of defensemen the team has. That is a discussion for another article.

Overall, I don’t have a problem with the Sabres retaining McCabe as it would have made no sense for them to let him walk for nothing. I also don’t think the contract was a huge overpayment. I don’t think Botterill can be knocked too much for this signing. He paid McCabe bottom four money, which is exactly what McCabe deserved.

Grade: A-

Linus Ullmark, 1 year, $1,325,000 AAV

Linus Ullmark came off a successful first season as an NHL regular so getting a new contract was a no-brainer. We had predicted Ullmark to get a one-year contract with a slightly higher AAV but overall this contract seems right in-line with where Ullmark’s value was. I think the only knock here is that the contract was only for one year. Going for multiple years might have been a gamble that would have been worth taking for Botterill, though it takes two to tango and I’m not sure it would have made sense for Ullmark to take something with more term as his stock was most likely going to rise as he received more playing time.

Grade: A

Dalton Smith, 1 year, $700,000 AAV

Even though the impact was minimal, this was a disgraceful signing by Botterill. He signed Smith to play and start a fight against Tampa Bay. Smith had never played an NHL game before and skated less than two minutes in the game. For a team who was starting to slide, wasting a roster spot, even for just a game on a useless player is inexcusable. The last time the Sabres’ did something like this was signing John Scott in 2012. They haven’t sniffed a playoff spot since.

Grade: F

Botterill grades out slightly better for his signings than his trades as his GPA was 2.83 for the signings while only 2.77 for the trades. Though both ultimately land with the same letter grade.

Overall Grade: B-

With the recent news of Botterill being fired, I may condense the remaining planned articles into one. Please follow @afpanalytics and check back to read the remaining articles in the series. Feel free to share your thoughts with @afpanalytics or @k_sticher on Twitter.

Please note all salary figures and trade compensations are courtesy of Capfriendly.com and all statistical information is courtesy of Naturalstattrick.com. Featured image is via the Buffalo News.

KYLE STICH is the Director of AFP Analytics.  In addition, Mr. Stich is a tax specialist and Director of Operations at AFP Consulting LLC, whose clientele include professional athletes performing services on three separate continents. Mr. Stich earned his Master of Science in Sport Management with a Concentration in Sport Analytics from Columbia University in 2017. He earned his undergraduate degrees in Accounting and Sport Management from St. John Fisher College in 2015, where he has served as an adjunct professor teaching Sport Finance and Baseball Analytics.

Grading Buffalo Sabres’ GM Jason Botterill: Part 1, Trades

The Buffalo Sabres recently announced that they would retain General Manager Jason Botterill for a fourth season. The decision to do so has not gone over well with the fans of the team as most believe that he has done a generally poor job in his role. I personally haven’t thought that he has done a great job but I also don’t know if going through another regime change, especially given all of the uncertainty in the world right now would be the best course of action for the organization. In this article series, I am going to go through every single move he has made since taking over the organization and grade them. I am going to break the series into four parts: NHL trades, NHL signings, the draft, and minor league management, and overall organizational management. I will provide an individual grade for every move, a grade for each segment, and finally an overall grade.

Before I begin grading, I should set my rubric and the guidelines on how I will arrive at the grade for every move. A good general manager needs to do two things well. First, they need to make good decisions. Second, they need to have good results. In my opinion, when grading a general manager, more weight should be placed on the decision-making process as it needs to be sound to lead to positive results. That said, there are some results that can be predicted and it is a decision maker’s job to do so. As I work through my grading, I will do my best to be objective. I will consider everything from advanced metrics to the current situation of the team. Ultimately though, these will be my opinions that I will try to back with reason.

The first part of the series will look at the trades he made involving regular NHL players. I have discussed the trades in chronological order from oldest to most recent.

Trade for Nathan Beaulieu

Details: Buffalo Acquired D Nathan Beaulieu from Montreal for a 3^rd round pick (68^th overall)

Botterill’s first player move as a general manager was to add more speed and mobility to the blueline, something that was desperately lacking from the team he inherited. Beaulieu is a defenseman with great speed and puck-moving abilities. He was an odd man out in Montreal but still young enough where it seemed like he could improve. During Beaulieu’s first three years in the league, the Canadiens improved in controlling both shot quantity and quality while he was on the ice. The next two seasons, leading up to him being traded, saw things go south.

When Botterill acquired Beaulieu, there were signs of things going the wrong direction but there had also been signs of strong play earlier in his career. He was a player that had “change of scenery” written all over him. I think overall Beaulieu fit a need for the Sabres and Botterill was able to acquire him for a reasonable price of a third-round pick. Once Beaulieu got to Buffalo, he seemed to fall out of favor for glaring mistakes. However, his metrics were pretty solid for a bottom four defenseman and really did not get a fair chance in Buffalo. It isn’t Botterill’s job to make day to day lineup decisions but he should have had some organizational support/structure in place to assist the coaching staff with lineup decisions. I think there is a lot to like about the process and decision to make the trade but the results did not work out.

Grade: B

Enticing Vegas to take Carrier Opposed to Ullmark

Details: Buffalo gave Vegas a 6^th round pick to take William Carrier instead of Linus Ullmark in the expansion draft

This “trade” had mostly been put in place by the previous general manager, Tim Murray, but ultimately Botterill still had to finalize it and could have pulled the plug if he wanted. The Sabres had exactly two desirable assets in the expansion draft, William Carrier and Linus Ullmark. Carrier has turned into a nice role player for Vegas and probably would have been the same in Buffalo. However, allowing Vegas to take Ullmark for nothing would have devastated the organization as he has been the best goalie (not a super high bar to clear) in the organization for the past couple of years. Giving up a 6thround pick to lose a 4th line player instead of a potential number one goalie is a major win. The team got a peek at what life was without him when he was injured this season and the results weren’t pretty. Some of you reading this will probably think I gave Botterill too much credit here but in most group projects in school, everyone gets the same grade. Here, Botterill benefits from having someone else do much of the work but not messing it up at the end.

Grade: A

Trade for Jason Pominville & Marco Scandella

Details: Buffalo acquires Jason Pominville, Marco Scandella and a 4^th round pick from Minnesota for Tyler Ennis, Marcus Foligno, and a 3^rd round pick.

Jason Botterill’s first couple moves as GM were aimed at shoring up the team’s defense. Much like his trade for Beaulieu, he identified a team that seemed to have a surplus of defensemen and were open to trading them. The best piece in this trade ended up being Jason Pominville. The idea of acquiring a Wild defenseman made a lot of sense. The price of Tyler Ennis and Marcus Foligno was not steep. If anything, trading them away was a net positive for Botterill as injuries had dramatically reduced Ennis’s effectiveness and he was under a contract that paid him more than the value he was providing. Although Foligno had a tremendous season in 2018-2019, he was nothing more than a 3^rd line winger, which isn’t overly valuable in terms of trade value, and didn’t project any higher either.

The knock Botterill gets for this trade is that he settled for Scandella. Minnesota likely would have traded one of Scandella, Brodin, or Spurgeon (more likely one of the first two). Of those Scandella was clearly the weakest. Much like Beaulieu, Scandella had started off strong but saw a drop in play in the two seasons leading up to the trade as the Wild did worse in both shot quantity and quality with him on the ice. Had Botterill viewed Scandella as the bottom four defenseman he really was, this trade would have been a home run. However, Botterill thought Scandella could handle playing on the top pair with Ristolainen and matchup with the opposing team’s top players. That was never going to be the case and his failure to realize that was an issue. Botterill still gets high marks for this trade as a lot of the thought process behind this makes trade made a lot of sense.

Grade: B+

Trades Away Evander Kane

Details: Buffalo acquired Danny O’Regan, a conditional 1^st (conditions met), conditional 4^th (stayed as 4^th) for Evander Kane.

The Sabres’ play early in the season quickly signaled that they would miss out on the playoffs so the clock was ticking on making a decision on Kane early in the season. I think Botterill could have justified re-signing him or trading him. Under no circumstances could he allow Kane to walk away for nothing. In my opinion, the total return was very underwhelming as the Sabres were not guaranteed a 1^st-round pick. I’m sure Botterill took the best offer at the time but there were probably better trade offers to be had earlier in the season that he failed to make. Kane was not the most tradeable player in the league but he did produce offensively and should have had some appeal as a rental. Botterill turned him into a low-level prospect who had shown no indication of being able to be a full-time NHLer and two draft picks that he later traded away. Botterill doesn’t fail this trade but he certainly doesn’t get high marks either.

Grade: D+

Acquires Matt Hunwick and Conor Sheary

Details: Sabres acquire Matt Hunwick and Conor Sheary from Pittsburgh for a conditional 4^th round pick that became third based on player performance (stayed a 4^th)

In this trade, Botterill had cap space and a need for some depth scoring. He weaponized the cap space to add Sheary for a low cost by also absorbing Matt Hunwick’s contract. The addition of Sheary made complete sense. He had success playing along highly skilled centers (Crosby and Malkin) in Pittsburgh so pairing him with Eichel seemed great in theory. The worst-case would be provided some scoring depth for a low price. Hunwick inexplicitly played some games for Buffalo and was not good in the few games he played. That was probably more of a coaching issue though Botterill gets some blame for even providing the option.

The results of this trade were not good as neither player contributed much at all. The good news is the draft pick was conditional and did not get upgraded. Although Botterill gets knocked a little for that, this was a home run trade on paper at the time the trade was executed. Sheary was decent when looking beyond his basic box score statistics as the Sabres were better when he was on the ice BUT he just couldn’t produce points which was a major issue.

Grade: A-

Ryan O’Reilly Trade

Details: Sabres acquire Patrik Berglund, Vladmir Sobotka, Tage Thompson, a conditional 1^st round pick and a 2021 2^ndround pick

Everyone knows this was Botterill’s worst move as GM and probably the main reason fans are still so upset with him as the team has not recovered from it. There is no doubt this was bad but at the time, there was some rationale for trading O’Reilly but the return he got was dreadful. The Sabres were a top-heavy team that was in desperate need of forward depth. O’Reilly was coming off a down season (when he wasn’t playing with Sam Reinhart, the team was worse with him on the ice during 5v5 play) and he had expressed his displeasure publicly. There also was (and still is) some concern with the length of his contract and his future value. 

To me, the idea of trading O’Reilly could have been defendable but the return is not in any way. Patrik Berglund and Vladmir Sobotka were never going to be impact players. They were going to come in and be, at best, third line players. If both players needed to be included for financial reasons to get a better overall package for the Sabres, it would have been one thing. However, those two players were centerpieces of the trade and didn’t help improve the Sabres’ haul. With those two players included, the Sabres should have demanded Robert Thomas be included in addition to Thompson or multiple unprotected 1st round picks. Additionally, Botterill needed to have a better plan for the second-line center than Berglund and/or Mittelstadt (maybe it should have been Sam Reinhart). Ultimately, nothing about the trade made sense or worked out and the team is still recovering from this trade.

Grade: F

Acquire Jeff Skinner

Details: Buffalo acquires Jeff Skinner for Cliff Pu, 2019 2^nd round pick, 2020 3^rd round & 6^th round picks

Just like everyone knows the O’Reilly trade was awful, everyone knows the Jeff Skinner trade was a homerun. I think people forget about how lopsided this trade was. It is incredible that Botterill was able to make a horrible trade and follow it up not long after with an excellent trade. Skinner was everything and more for what the team needed. The line of Skinner, Eichel, and Reinhart kept the team in the playoff mix into March almost singlehandedly. The assets Botterill gave up had little value.

Grade: A

Acquire Brandon Montour 

Details: Buffalo acquires Brandon Montour for Brandon Guhle and the higher of previously acquired 1^st round picks

This was an interesting trade by Botterill. Even after some changes to the blueline, the Sabres were still in need of a fast-skating, puck-moving defenseman and that is exactly what Montour brings. However, Guhle also provides some of those same traits but was much less polished. The idea of “upgrading” from Guhle to Montour made sense. It also helped the team balance their left and right shots. However, Montour has still not settled into a role in Buffalo mostly because Botterill has failed to alleviate a logjam he created. Montour should ideally be playing second pair (or maybe top pair) minutes (on the right side) and quarterbacking the second power-play unit. 

I question the price Botterill paid to get Montour. To me, the price should have been a mid-round pick or prospect plus one of Guhle or a 1^st round pick. Using the 1^st round pick to marginally upgrade Brandon Guhle seemed a little strange to me but I also don’t think this was a terrible trade either.

Grade: C

Trades Away Nathan Beaulieu

Details: Buffalo acquires a 6^th round pick in exchange for Nathan Beaulieu

As discussed above, Beaulieu never found his footing in Buffalo and the coaching staff deserves a lot of blame for that. However, his underlying numbers were solid for a bottom four defenseman. Beaulieu publicly made his displeasure known and once that happens the returns are fairly limited. It seems like Beaulieu’s value was hurt somewhat by Botterill holding on for him for so long. A sixth-round pick for a serviceable defenseman with a decent contract and RFA status is not great compensation but something is better than keeping him and letting him walk for nothing in summer.

Grade: C-

Acquires Colin Miller

Details: Buffalo acquires defenseman Colin Miller in exchange for a 2021 2^nd round pick and 2022 5^th round pick.

On paper, this trade had the markings of another homerun trade for Botterill. When Miller was on the ice, an already good Vegas team performed even better. His advanced metrics were very good. It seemed like Miller would be a perfect fit in the top four in Buffalo and maybe even on the top pair as Rasmus Dahlin’s partner. It seemed like Miller’s acquisition would finally allow Buffalo to move on from Rasmus Ristolainen and recoup or even add assets as they had just found a better, cheaper option. 

It took Miller some time to find his footing in Buffalo and finished the shortened season by seeing the team was overall better with him on the ice than when he was off. Miller was not the immediate impact player that Buffalo was hoping and him and Dahlin together early in the season was a disaster (some of that blame also falls on Dahlin). Part of the problem for Miller was his usage was less than ideal for much of the season. Although there were signs that he could maybe slot on the top pair, it became clear that it wasn’t a good idea. Miller also had been given significant power-play time in Vegas as he has a bomb of a shot from the backend. However, Buffalo preferred to use Dahlin and Ristolainen over Miller so he was forced to share the remaining time with Brandon Montour. Confidence goes a long way in hockey and Miller’s seemed shot early but he did rebound as the season went on.

Overall, Botterill gets high marks for this trade as he again capitalized on a team tight to the cap and acquired a quality player for a reduced price. The problem with this trade is it added to an already stocked blueline and created a bigger logjam than one that already existed. Please note, I will have a grade specifically for this aspect of roster management later on so this grade will mostly reflect the acquisition of Miller.

Grade: B+

Acquires Jimmy Vesey

Details: Buffalo acquires Jimmy Vesey for a 2021 3^rd round pick

This was an interesting trade that isn’t as easy to grade as many may think. Vesey did not produce many points and was not more than a third-line player. However, over the course of the shortened season, the team was better when Vesey was on the ice, both in terms of shot quantity and quality. He provided the same for a bad New York Rangers team during the 2018-2019 season. 

Botterill identified the Sabres as a team that lacked depth and has gone about acquiring players to address that. Vesey is a good depth option. However, Botterill viewed him as more than that as he, on more than one occasion, referred to Vesey as a top-nine forward opposed to middle or bottom six, where he should properly slot. Though Botterill thought he could skate on the top line, the compensation he gave up reflects more of a middle-six player, though I still think that was still too much. The positive is the risk of acquiring Vesey was fairly low as he was signed to a relatively small, one-year contract so if he had a breakout season, the Sabres would have gotten some great value. 

Overall, the signs were there that Vesey was nothing more than a third-line player who wouldn’t kill your team if he had to slot higher in the lineup on occasion but shouldn’t have been counted on doing so. Botterill overvalued Vesey and ultimately added another player to the mix of many replacement level players he already had. However, the relatively low-risk nature of the trade, the thought process to improve depth, and the acceptable results of Vesey’s play help this grade.

Grade: C

Acquires Henri Jokiharju

Details: Sabres acquire Henri Jokiharju in exchange for Alexander Nylander

If I were to poll Sabres’ fans on what their favorite trade made by Botterill was, I bet a lot would point to this one. Alex Nylander had quickly fallen out of favor with Sabres’ fans and many were happy to see the team move on and I am guessing many would’ve been happy with a much lower return than what the team got. Jokiharju passes all the tests for a young player you would want to acquire. He is still on his entry-level contract, was a high draft selection, dominated the AHL, and has played time in the NHL and has been successful in doing so. The fact that he plays the highly-valued right defense helps as well. On paper, this seems like another home run for Botterill.

Jokiharju was a very steady performer on the blueline for the early part of the season but showed some decline as the season wore on. When he was on the ice, the Sabres gave up more shots but the quality of those shots were less than the quality the Sabres produced. Considering Jokiharju is still incredibly young and many thought he would play most of this season in the AHL, management and fans have the right to be hopeful.

I have two issues with this trade that prevent it from being an “A.” First, Jokiharju was the second right-shot defenseman acquired in almost as many weeks. Botterill now had Ristolainen, Montour, Miller, and Jokiharju on the right side alone. It is perfectly fine that the team allowed Jokiharju to earn his NHL time but his superb play created a further logjam on the blueline. So, like the Miller trade above, this will negatively impact his grade. Second, I am not against the idea of trading Nylander but the trade created a new hole and added to a problem in the organization. The Sabres’ biggest weakness right now is they are lacking prospects that project well as Top Six forwards. The only four players who may fit that mold are Casey Mittelstadt, Tage Thompson, Victor Olofsson, and 2019 first-round pick, Dylan Cozens. The former two are probably middle-six players at best. Olofsson showed tremendous promise in his rookie season but has not solidified himself either. The signs are positive for Cozens but he has no sample playing against “men.” Though Nylander did not project as a surefire Top Six, he had the skill set that could translate to that spot. With Olofsson “graduated” and Nylander traded, the Sabres have a whole in their prospect pipeline at forward. Trading Ristolainen could (have) solved two problems at once. Instead, an excellent trade in a vacuum exasperated a big problem for the Sabres.

Grade: B+

Acquires Michael Frolik; Trades Marco Scandella

Details: Buffalo traded Marco Scandella to Montreal for a 4^th round pick that was subsequently traded to Calgary for Michael Frolik

Though there may be some recency bias, this trade is probably the one most fans would pin as second-worst to the Ryan O’Reilly trade. However, I don’t have nearly as big of an issue with this trade as many fans. Many fans will point to Scandella’s subsequent trade to the Blues for a 2^nd round pick in addition to Frolik providing next to nothing for the Sabres as a clear black-eye for Botterill. However, I can’t fault Botterill for 1) The return Montreal got for Scandella, 2) Frolik providing nothing for the Sabres. In order to fairly assess the trade, we need to look at it at the point of time it was made and not play the “what if” game after it was made. For all intents and purposes, Botterill traded Scandella for Frolik and that is how I am going to assess the trade.

Both Scandella and Frolik are impending unrestricted free agents (UFAs) who probably were going to be nothing more than rentals. The Sabres definitely would not be retaining Scandella at the season’s end and needed to add someone to their forward group. Frolik graded out well analytically over the course of his career BUT was having a down season this year. The question is whether he could bounce back with an increased role or whether age had gotten the best of him. Ironically, the opposite of Marco Scandella was true. He had been down the past couple of seasons but was tremendous this season for Buffalo, which is probably attributable to playing a less demanding role and with a better partner. He had quickly become one of the more attractive assets from the Sabres’ crowded blueline.

If we look at this trade as Scandella for a 4^th round pick, it isn’t great but not bad either. Everyone in the league knew Botterill had defensemen to deal so they weren’t going to be aggressively bidding for any of them so it was going to be difficult to get full market value for Scandella, which was probably a 3^rd round pick at the time. Yes, Scandella was traded at the deadline for a 2^nd round pick and a conditional 4^th round pick but the devil is in the details. There are four reasons Montreal was able to get a better return. First, the trade deadline adjusts the supply and demand of the market so the price was going to be naturally higher. Buffalo could’ve waited it out for a slightly better return but Botterill would’ve been crucified for that too. Second, Montreal retained salary. The salary retention likely bumped the pick up a round because it was critical for St. Louis and the same would’ve been true of any other playoff contender that might have acquired Scandella. Third, Scandella proved he could play effectively in a different situation in Montreal. Although that wasn’t likely a major factor, it probably didn’t hurt either. Finally, Botterill was always playing from behind because of the logjam of defenseman he had. No opposing GM was going to allow him to “win” a trade of a defenseman. The one knock I do have on the return is the lack of a conditional pick. Every trade made in-season should include some performance, trading, or re-signing clause. This would better allow teams to capture the value the player is providing.

If we look just at the Frolik side of the trade, there is nothing wrong with the price of a 4^th round pick. Frolik’s salary certainly isn’t great and likely delayed the trade until the Sabres could move some salary but the idea of acquiring him was not bad. He was a relatively low-risk acquisition who could have provided a decent reward for the Sabres. Overall, I look at this trade as a trade of Frolik for Marco Scandella, a trade of a bottom-four defenseman for a middle-six forward, with similar contract situations. This is what people like to call a hockey trade. I don’t think Botterill made a brilliant trade but he did what he needed to do. The question is whether he did it involving the correct players.

Grade: B

Acquires Wayne Simmonds

Details: Buffalo acquires Wayne Simmonds (with 50% salary retained) for a 2021 5^th round pick 

I know there are people that don’t like this move but frankly, it was an incredibly low-risk move that could lead to a reward. Simmonds is no longer the player he used to be put still brought some unique skills to Buffalo. Although the coaching staff continued to use Rasmus Ristolainen as the net-front man on the power play, that area was a major weakness for the team. Sam Reinhart has proven to be effective in that position but he can be equally effective on the perimeter as well. Simmonds should have come in and been immediately inserted in that position. Everything else he could’ve provided would have been a bonus. Had he somehow caught fire, Botterill would’ve looked like a genius. He didn’t, as expected, but Botterill is only out a 5th round pick in next year’s draft, which is basically nothing. At worst, Simmonds would have filled the hole that would soon be created by trading Conor Sheary.

Grade: B

Acquires Dominik Kahun

Details: Buffalo acquires Dominik Kahun in exchange for Evan Rodrigues and Conor Sheary

This is a home run of a trade for Botterill and the creative type of trade he needs to do more of. Both Rodrigues and Sheary were on expiring contracts and neither were going to be back in Buffalo (Rodrigues wouldn’t have received a tender as an RFA). Both were assets that would have been gone at the end of the season for nothing and were nothing more than rentals at the trade deadline. I also don’t think either player had much value in the trade market. Sheary was probably going to return a 4^th round pick (3^rd if lucky or retaining salary) and Rodrigues was probably a 5^th or 6^th round pick. In essence, both players would have returned a nearly worthless asset. Instead of shopping both separately, Botterill packaged them and got an intriguing asset, Dominik Kahun, in return. Kahun is young, cheap, and has shown he can play in the NHL. He is probably a middle-six forward but is a fairly safe bet to be no worse than that. Though the results are very limited with the Sabres, he did seem to be fitting in well. Regardless, he is a much better asset to have now and likely in the future than whatever those middle to late-round draft picks would have become.

Grade: A

Summary

I think a lot of the flack Botterill receives comes from the singular focus on one horrible trade and his acquisition of Jeff Skinner gets overshadowed by the subsequent contract he signed him to, which was a home run of a trade. I think the biggest issue Botterill has had is many of the trades that have looked good on paper, haven’t produced the expected results. In some instances, it should have been anticipated. However, in many instances, it is somewhat mystifying as to why players have performed so poorly in Buffalo. The other problem in Botterill’s trading history is there are very few trades where the Sabres are the clear “winners.” He has made plenty of fine and balanced trades but he needs to do more to swing trades in his favor. He should take more advantage of adding conditions to trades. Overall, Botterill grades out as very average on his trades.

Overall Grade for Trades: B-

Please note all salary figures and trade compensations are courtesy of Capfriendly.com and all statistical information is courtesy of Naturalstattrick.com. Featured image is via the Buffalo News.

Please follow @afpanalytics and check back to read the remaining articles in the series. Feel free to share your thoughts with @afpanalytics or @k_sticher on Twitter.

KYLE STICH is the Director of AFP Analytics.  In addition, Mr. Stich is a tax specialist and Director of Operations at AFP Consulting LLC, whose clientele include professional athletes performing services on three separate continents. Mr. Stich earned his Master of Science in Sport Management with a Concentration in Sport Analytics from Columbia University in 2017. He earned his undergraduate degrees in Accounting and Sport Management from St. John Fisher College in 2015, where he has served as an adjunct professor teaching Sport Finance and Baseball Analytics.

Friday Focus: November 8th

Welcome to the sixth edition of AFP Analytics’ Friday Focus section. In the Friday Focus post I hope to highlight some of the most interesting events from a numbers perspective during the past week in the NHL. If something catches my eye from other sports, I might mention it here as well. I am intending on this being more of a quick hitter type of read that I hope everyone enjoys. I would also invite any readers to shoot us questions (@afpanalytics) and we will try to answer them every week. 

Last Week’s Player to Watch – Filip Chytil

Last week I highlighted the New York Ranger’s young forward, Filip Chytil who has an impressive season debut. I was interested to watch to see if he would continue it as he played more games. His results have been an interesting mix since his season debut. The Rangers played four games since last week’s post so Chytil faced Nashville, Ottawa, Detroit, and Carolina. He played well against the weaker Ottawa and Detroit, ok against a good Nashville team, but had a rough outing against a strong Carolina team last night. Against Ottawa and Detroit, the Rangers controlled the shot counter while Chytil was on the ice but struggled with shot quality. Against Nashville they were slightly outshot but did better in quality. Against Carolina the Rangers outscored Carolina 1-0 while Chytil was on the ice but otherwise got caved in and score effects can only be partially blamed.

Last Week’s Game to Watch

In last week’s post, I highlighted Colorado at Arizona and it is starting to become a weekly tradition that the game I choose as my game of the week ends up being a blowout. Colorado has not responded well to the loss Rantanen and Landeskog, which isn’t surprising but is a little worrisome. Colorado hadn’t been the strongest possession team prior to the injuries so some regression was bound to occur. The loss of their two-star players sped the process up. I also don’t want to take away from Arizona who are continuing to prove that they are a team to be taken seriously.

Islanders are Going to Regress

I was wrong last season when I kept thinking the New York Islanders were going to regress because their Corsi For (CF)% and Expected Goals For (xGF)% were below 50% for much of last season. Simply put, they were getting outplayed in the majority of the games they played but still managed to win most of them. Somehow they are doing it again this year. They are doing worse in controlling shots but slightly better in shot quality this season. They have also been winning a lot of one goal games lately. They have a lot in common with last season’s Buffalo Sabres. Their numbers do not support the success they are having but they were able to piece together a 10 game winning streak by winning four one goal games (plus two where they added late empty net goals). Last year, Buffalo won nine of the ten by one goal so the Islanders haven’t been living quite as much on the edge but it isn’t great. The one thing the Islanders are doing well is they are controlling the goal differential during 5v5 play. I will probably end up being wrong again but I don’t know if the Islanders can sustain their success again. However, their ability to bank significant points early in the season set them up to once again make the playoffs.

What Should We Make of the Maple Leafs?

I try to very my discussion each week to the point where I feel as though I have touched on a good portion of the notable teams. I have purposefully avoided discussing the Maple Leafs because I frankly have had no clue what to make of them. I’ve decided to finally discuss them. I think they are a very average team. They are ranked sixth in the league with a CF% of 52.41%, which means they are doing a pretty good job of controlling play but they rank 21^st in the league in xGF%, with a measure just under 50%. Even though they are controlling quantity, their quality is lacking. They should make the playoffs but without some major changes, they aren’t a team that is likely going to make some noise. For Leaf fans this will certainly be a disappointment. The blueline the team has constructed is not good enough. For as much success as Mike Babcock has had, the Leafs might need to consider a change behind the bench to bring a fresh voice. For a team that has to win in the next few years, being an average team isn’t good enough.

Are the Canucks for Real?

The Vancouver Canucks have been highly criticized for some head-scratching moves in recent years. Earlier this year, they waived some players who can play in the NHL and gave some odd reasons for why they made the decisions they made. They also committed significant money to Tyler Myers, despite being in a little of a cap crunch. Many people were picking the team to finish toward the bottom of the standings again. By next week, most teams will be close playing a quarter of their games and many people like to talk about how the teams in playoff positions by American Thanksgiving usually make up the bulk of the playoff teams. Vancouver finds themselves in second in the Pacific division with a game in hand on first place Edmonton. The question on many people’s minds has to be whether they are legitimately good. I think they are. They are fourth in CF% and third in xGF%. Those numbers indicate the Canucks are probably good. Edmonton and Vancouver are certainly two surprising teams to be at the top of the Pacific Division. If you were to bet on one to stay there, the smart money is on Vancouver. 

The one major question I have is how their players respond as the season grinds on. Quinn Hughes played in college last season, where they play less than half the games in an NHL season. Elias Pettersson is in his second professional season and has to stay out of the sophomore slump. They rely on many other young players who have little experience as the pressure ramps up. They also have an older Alex Edler and injury prone Tyler Myers and Chris Tanev. Their numbers support their position in the standings. However, a bad stretch of hockey can certainly hurt their underlying metrics and cause them to regress. Some injuries or fatigue can certainly make that happen, which would make me a little nervous if I were a Canuck fan, considering who they are relying on. As an aside, Travis Green has to be one of, if not the, favorite to win the Jack Adams award for coach of the year. 

Player(s) to Watch

I am interested to see how both the Tampa Bay Lightning and Buffalo Sabres respond once they return from Europe. Two years ago, Ottawa was one of the best teams in the NHL and had just traded for Matt Duchene when they got back from Sweden. They ended up finishing second to last. Colorado struggled immediately upon their return but went on a tear later in the season to finish third in the Central. Last season, Florida and Winnipeg traveled midseason and both teams performed well immediately after returning but Florida had a miserable end to the season while Winnipeg didn’t finish how they hoped to either. With only four teams traveling overseas in the middle of the season in recent history, it is tough to draw any definite conclusions. 

If Tampa doesn’t leave Sweden with at least three points, they cannot afford any slipup when they return home. The Sabres have a little more cushion but anything less than a split puts them in a difficult position as well in a competitive Atlantic Division. Neither team can afford any sort of hangover when they get back or their seasons could be in peril. I will be interested to see how the teams respond. The NHL and NHLPA should be keeping an eye on how these teams respond to the midseason trip. I think the NHL must play games globally but they might want to reexamine when those take place if both teams falter after the trip.

Game to Watch

There are always going to be matchups that look intriguing on paper. Buffalo playing against Tampa certainly bears watching because both teams are doing ok in the standings but aren’t lighting it up during 5v5 play. With both teams traveling to Sweden it will be interesting to see how they play with almost a week off. Vegas at Washington also certainly bears watching but my game(s) of the week both involve the Florida Panthers, who started slowly but have been playing some great hockey lately. This upcoming week sees them play at two of the hottest teams in hockey, the New York Islanders (Saturday), who I have already discussed above, and the Boston Bruins (Tuesday).

If you have any thoughts or would like to submit questions for next week’s Friday Focus, tweet us, @afpanalytics, or me, @k_sticher.

All data is courtesy of naturalstattrick.com and capfriendly.com 

KYLE STICH is the Director of AFP Analytics.  In addition, Mr. Stich is a tax specialist and Director of Operations at AFP Consulting LLC, whose clientele include professional athletes performing services on three separate continents. Mr. Stich earned his Master of Science in Sport Management with a Concentration in Sport Analytics from Columbia University in 2017. He earned his undergraduate degrees in Accounting and Sport Management from St. John Fisher College in 2015, where he has served as an adjunct professor teaching Sport Finance and Baseball Analytics.