The NHL offseason opened with a bang as shortly after the first hour of free agency, John Tavares announced that he would be taking his talents to Toronto. That alone sent shock-waves through the NHL. The teams that missed out on Tavares likely then turned their attention to the Buffalo Sabres and center Ryan O’Reilly. Shortly after LeBron James sent shock-waves through the NBA by announcing his move to Los Angeles, the Sabres and Blues announced they had completed a trade for O’Reilly in what could be one of the biggest trades this offseason. There have been many mixed opinions about this trade and we thought we would add ours to the mix.

To St. Louis: Ryan O’Reilly

The key piece obviously in this trade is how good of a player Buffalo gave up in Ryan O’Reilly. We’re not going to say he isn’t a good player but we think we need to pump the breaks on the praise a little. On the surface, O’Reilly performed well in incredibly tough minutes for a horrible Buffalo Sabres’ team. He was also a quality player for the Colorado Avalanche. Let’s look at Ryan O’Reilly’s Relative Corsi For % during 5v5 play going back to the lockout. This statistic looks at how much better (if positive) or worse (if negative) O’Reilly’s team performed in shots when he was on the ice versus off the ice.

The chart shows O’Reilly has been a solid player overall. For reference, the top forward in the league usually will be around 8% – 9% and the 50^th best forward is usually around 4%. This metric attempts to strip away the team’s strength. For example, let’s say Player A and Player B both have a Corsi For % (all shots toward goal) of 50%. However, Player A plays on a team that only has a 45% Corsi For % (weaker team), while Player B plays on a team that has a Corsi For % of 50% (better team). Player A’s Relative Corsi For % is 5% while Player B’s is 0%. We can say that Player A is likely the better player.

Considering Ryan O’Reilly has improved his team’s results while he was on the ice, should mean he is a fantastic player especially since he has played on some pretty awful teams. However, this is where we need to take a deeper look. This is where we don’t want to say this should be taken as an absolute but a very interesting trend has emerged when looking at who O’Reilly has played with. As a clear top six player, it should be expected that O’Reilly will play with other good players. The trend that has emerged has been O’Reilly has struggled when playing away from some of his top teammates. Let’s look at his time in Buffalo first.

Ryan O’Reilly and Sam Reinhart formed a dynamic duo for the Sabres, posting elite level shot metrics when playing together. Both were not nearly as good when playing with other teammates but O’Reilly’s drop when playing away from Reinhart was higher than Reinhart’s drop when away from O’Reilly. In his time with the Sabres, Reinhart has shown that he has steadily been one of the team’s top possession players.

Kyle Okposo and Brian Gionta are the only players O’Reilly played with that were completely lost without O’Reilly. Everyone else was fine away from him. We can argue about the fact that the players played against weaker competition when they weren’t with O’Reilly while also likely playing with Jack Eichel at center as well. However, this wasn’t only a trend for O’Reilly with the Sabres. Let’s also look at his three previous seasons with the Avalanche.

The way we look at this is you have to go back to 2012 before you find a season where O’Reilly was unquestionably the one making his team better and he only played 29 of the 42 games that season. After that, we think that an argument could be made that O’Reilly’s strong play in the past five seasons (outside of maybe 2016) could be as much a result of who he was playing with as his own play. We can debate the validity of this until we are blue in the face but we think it is something important to look at.

Shot metrics aren’t everything so we should also look at O’Reilly’s scoring during 5v5 play. We prefer to look at rates as it keeps everyone on the same scale, but we also realize it is hard for some to look at points per 60 and get a feel for how that stacks up so we also presented the pure scoring counts.

Ryan O’Reilly’s scoring has clearly dropped during 5v5 play since coming to Buffalo. It could be due to him starting more in his own zone (though his offensive zone faceoff % has never been above 50% in the six years we have been looking at), him playing against tougher players, or him playing with lesser skilled teammates. However, it could be purely due to the fact that O’Reilly is simply on the downside of his career.

Clearly there were other factors at play when the Sabres decided to move O’Reilly. First, we have no way of knowing how O’Reilly contributed to the chemistry and culture in the locker room but it seems like that was a big part of the reason for this move. We have heard that there was a divide between him and Eichel and clearly the Sabres were going to choose Eichel.

Another concern that has to be discussed when assessing O’Reilly is his footspeed. He has never been the fastest player and as he gets older and the NHL gets faster, it certainly has to be a concern. He will probably be fine for the Blues, who don’t play as up tempo as some teams, for the next few years but having O’Reilly under contract for five more seasons is probably not ideal.

We have developed a market value model internally where we can assess where a current player’s market value stands. This offseason we only had the time to run 40 players and their projections can be found here. Earlier returns on the accuracy are pretty good as it has beaten Matt Cane’s model in error percentage for the players we assessed. This model has Ryan O’Reilly at a market value of $6.8M under the present salary cap. O’Reilly currently has a cap hit of $7.5M so our model believes O’Reilly is currently overpaid. That gap is likely to widen as O’Reilly ages and his play drops. Because of this, the Sabres may be wise to make the move now while his perceived trade value was still very high. If he had another down season, which is not outside the realm of possibilities, the Sabres would likely have been stuck with the contract or would have had to sell at a discount.

Right now, we think the Sabres likely got pretty close to market value. O’Reilly is a good player and someone the Sabres definitely shouldn’t have tried to move purely to shed his salary. However, we also think there is a level of overrating O’Reilly whether it being in the analytic community or in “Hockey Circles.” O’Reilly is currently a solid second-line center, who is being paid more like a first line center with a $7.5M cap hit. It seems unlikely O’Reilly will really improve much over the remaining life of his contract and by the end he likely will be nothing more than a third-line center. Even with the rising cap, having a third-line center with a $7.5M cap hit will be less than ideal. Because all of this, we think moving O’Reilly was likely a smart move if the Sabres got a quality return, which we will discuss next.

To Buffalo: Tage Thompson, Patrik Berglund, Vladimir Sobotka, 2019 1st Round Pick, 2021 2nd Round Pick

After taking a deeper look into Ryan O’Reilly, we decided to look at the three players coming back to Buffalo. Tage Thompson is a recognizable name and many fans probably knew where he stood as a prospect, but they may be surprised to learn that he played about half the season last year in the NHL with the Blues. Patrik Berglund and Vladimir Sobotka are NHL regulars who are on contracts that the Blues were looking to move.

Some of the media and analytics community are looking at Berglund and Sobotka as pure salary dumps, and that the trade was Thompson and the picks for O’Reilly. We would not go that far, some of the numbers on Berglund and Sobotka are surprising, much like the ROR numbers from above.

Rather than focus on each of the three players individually we decided to look at specific metrics and where the three players ranked on the Blues this past season. For each statistic used we set the minutes limit at 200 minutes of 5v5 play. This resulted in 15 eligible forwards so when discussing where the players ranked, 15 is the number to keep in mind.

Let’s start with some of the basic metrics like Corsi% and Expected Goals For/Against. Corsi% is the percentage of shots that were taken by the players team when he was on the ice. For example, if 100 shots were taken while ROR was on the ice and the Sabres attempted 60, his Corsi% would be 60%. Expected goals is a metric that takes quality and quantity of shots into account and predicts how likely each shot attempt is to result in a goal.

The Sabres have been a Corsi% disaster recently and this season was a slight improvement, but their percentage of 47.61% was 26^th in the league. The Blues were much better, they ranked 6^th with a 51.70% Corsi. From an individual standpoint, the 3 forwards ranked 7^th, 8^th and 10^th. Berglund had a CF% of 51.6, Thompson 50.9% and Sobotka 49.6%. So, the players were not grouped with players like Steen and Tarasenko, but they certainly were not holding the team back either. In Buffalo, O’Reilly had a Corsi% of 51.1%, which is impressive, but some would argue it would be expected based on his role and teammates that he played with.

From an expected goals for and against standpoint, none of the players from the Blues are particularly impressive, but there is still reason Sabres fans should be hopeful and we will explain why. The version of this statistic we used was from a team perspective, so it is how many goals for the entire team was expected to score or allow (per 60 minutes) while that one specific player was on the ice. Sobotka ranked 8^th, which was the best out of the 3 players, but his differential was high. The Blues were expected to score 2.38 goals and allow 2.94 while he was on the ice. Next was Berglund, who ranked 10^th with 2.23 goals for and 2.46 goals against. Finally, Thompson ranked 12^th at 2.18 expected goals for and 2.94 expected goals against. However, all hope is not lost, Thompson and Sobotka significantly underperformed when looking at how their expected goals for lined up with their actual. That could be due to a variety of reasons, perhaps they missed some A+ chances or the goalies always seemed to make the big save while these players are on the ice. The conclusion we would draw from this is that Berglund and Sobotka may not be top 6 forwards, but they should be more than serviceable if used properly in Buffalo. Thompson is only 20 years old and will need to continue to develop but if his interview today is any indication, he will get an opportunity to prove himself in Buffalo.

Speaking of opportunities there is an interesting statistic that favors Patrik Berglund. Berglund had the highest rate of his zone entries result in a shot on goal for the Blues. 44% of the time Berglund controlled the entry into the offensive zone, the Blues registered a shot on goal. However, when looking at the quantity of entries per 60 minutes, he ranks 12^th with only 7.17 controlled entries per 20 minutes. Berglund figures to be the second or third center behind Jack Eichel and possibly Casey Mittelstadt. He should see more ice time in Buffalo and the Sabres should allow him to drive possession when he is on the ice. Thompson and Sobotka ranked 3^rd and 5^th, with averages of 11 and 9.45. Each of the three players have shown the ability to carry the puck into the zone. Thompson is particularly exciting here and if he earns a top 6 role this is a promising nugget, if nothing else. For comparisons sake, ROR averaged 8.35 controlled entries per 60 minutes in Buffalo this past season.

We also wanted to focus on one more possession-based metric. This one is simple, it is simply how many minutes per 60 minutes of being on ice the player spends with the puck on his stick in the offensive zone. Sabres’ fans should be encouraged by this statistic, the 3 players ranked 5^th, 6^th and 7^th among Blues forwards with possession times of 1:36, 1:35 and 1:34. O’Reilly only possessed the puck in the offensive zone for 1:18. Of course, this is not the be all end all when evaluating forwards, but it is an encouraging sign, especially for Tage Thompson. Thompson is touted as a power forward with an elite shot. He is only 20 years old, it is a good sign that he is possessing the puck as often as his veteran counterparts.

Since possession time is not the only way to measure offensive output we also looked at how many scoring chance generating plays each player was able to make per 60 minutes. Sobotka and Thompson generated 18.9 and 18.2 scoring chances per 60 while Berglund only generated 16.3. Sobotka was a surprise here, ranking 4^th on the team is impressive for a player who was playing a bottom six role for most of the season. The Sabres are losing ROR’s 20.4 chances which should really help the Blues, but the drop is not one that should cause total panic. Faceoffs and play in their own end is where the Sabres will miss O’Reilly the most.

Patrik Berglund figures to play difficult minutes against top competition to help Casey Mittelstadt ease his way into being an NHL regular. The market value analysis for Berglund had him at $4M over the next 4 years, which falls right in line with his current contract. He is not as much of a salary cap dump as some are thinking. In many ways, he will play a similar role that O’Reilly played and if used right he could produce enough points to make his contract look more than fair.

Vladimir Sobotka is the biggest “salary dump” in this trade. He has 2 years left on his deal that carries a cap hit of $3.5M. Our market valuation had him at only one year with a cap hit of $2M. Frankly put, the Sabres had the cap space and Sobotka is a competent player. A player like Sobotka with only two years left on his deal is not a horrible accusation for a team like the Sabres and he should slot in seamlessly to a bottom 6 role in Buffalo.

Lastly, Tage Thompson is the wild card in the deal. If he can fulfill his potential the Sabres have landed a scoring winger to play alongside Eichel or Mittelstadt. The sample size is too small to make any predictions about his future, but there are encouraging signs as well as some signs that would make you scratch your head. Thompson was not one of the top 3 prospects in the Blues organization, but he immediately jumps players like Nick Baptiste and Justin Bailey in Buffalo. It will be interesting to see how he takes advantage of this opportunity. We think the Sabres’ saw Mittelstadt’s success in the World Juniors with Kieffer Bellows and think Thompson could fill a similar role.

The trade truly seems like one where the Sabres gave the Blues a dollar bill, and the Blues gave the Sabres back a dollar in change. We believe that the team trading the best player in the deal almost never “wins” a trade, but this trade seems like one where both sides could end up happy this season as well as in the future.

Thank you for taking the time to read our analysis! We hope you check back in throughout the summer for more pieces like this! Stats courtesy of Natural Stat Trick and Proprietary Stats.

KYLE STICH is the Director of AFP Analytics.  In addition, Mr. Stich is a tax specialist and Director of Operations at AFP Consulting LLC, whose clientele include professional athletes performing services on three separate continents. Mr. Stich earned his Master of Science in Sport Management with a Concentration in Sport Analytics from Columbia University in 2017. He earned his undergraduate degrees in Accounting and Sport Management from St. John Fisher College in 2015, where he has served as an adjunct professor teaching Sport Finance and Baseball Analytics.

JUSTIN WHITE is an intern AFP Analytics. Justin is a graduate of St. John Fisher College where he earned his degree in Sport Management and Statistics. He has worked with the Rochester Americans and members of their coaching staff on various analytics and statistics-based projects.

As NHL free agency inches ever closer we wanted to have a little fun and make some predictions about what we think could transpire over the next few days. We’ve identified five forwards and five defensemen to make some predictions on. Four in each category are unrestricted free agents while the other two are top trade candidates. For the free agents, we have given contract projections that we arrived at using our internal methods (sorry, we won’t be disclosing them at this time). All the team picks are solely our opinions and little to no statistical analysis has been done to come to those predictions. Justin and Kyle came up with their picks completely independently without comparing notes.

John Tavares

Kyle’s Pick: New York Islanders

Contract Prediction: $92.5M over 8 years; $11.56M AAV

Had I been writing this a few weeks ago I might not pick the team I will but the more things develop, the more I think John Tavares stays with the Islanders. The team has stabilized their front office and hired a Stanley Cup winning coach. They just had a tremendous draft and have plenty of cap space to sign Tavares to the contract he commands. Tavares is just too valuable to the Islanders for them to lose him. The team will certainly still have some holes to fill his offseason on their blueline and in net but it will be much easier for the team to draw some talent if Tavares stays. I think the Sharks could be a dark horse here but ultimately Tavares will stay with what he knows.

Justin’s Pick: New York Islanders

John Tavares is arguably the best player to reach free agency in recent memory. If I were Tavares I would look to get out of Long Island. He will be able to handpick his next team and judging on some of the media reports he would be willing to consider teams in California. After the recent moves made the team I think he would fit best on is the San Jose Sharks. The Sharks have the cap space and the young talent that should be enough to attract the best free agent in the class. His speed and skill would blend nicely with a player like Evander Kane. However, I think the fun is not going to happen and Tavares is going to resign and stay a member of the New York Islanders. From what has been made public, Tavares is a very loyal player and the new arena is enticing to him. I hate to take the easy way out, but the Islanders have the cap space and enough young talent to make it worthwhile for Tavares to hang around. A team does not fire its coach and general manager if it does not feel that it has a great chance of holding onto its star player. As teams are making the pitch to Tavares this week, the Islanders will probably be the team to beat.

Paul Stastny

Kyle’s Pick: Colorado Avalanche

Contract Prediction: $24.7M over 4 years; $6.17M AAV

I think Paul Stastny goes full circle and returns to the place where he started his career. The Avalanche have plenty of cap space and could certainly use a boost at center behind Nathan MacKinnon. The team made the playoffs this season and if they want to keep the momentum going next season, they are going to have to add talent to keep pace with the central division arms race. I don’t think a return to the Blues or Jets is out of the question. Going back to the Jets would likely have to be for less money or less term but it might give Stastny the best chance at lifting the cup. I think dollars and term from a contending team win out with Stastny back in Denver.

Justin’s Pick: Colorado Avalanche

If I am Paul Stastny I would do everything in my power to stay in Winnipeg. Stastny is aging and the 32-year-old forward only has a handful of seasons left and the Jets figure to be one of the strongest teams in the league again next season. With that being said, there will be other teams interested in his services. Teams like the Philadelphia Flyers and St. Louis Blues would make sense to sign Stastny. The Flyers could use two-way center to help some of their young forwards and figure to have the space to sign Stastny. Stastny has been asked about a return to the Blues and he did not shoot down the idea. The Blues still feel that they should be a contending team and Stastny is a player that would help the team immediately. The former Blue provides exactly what the Blues are looking for and I would not be surprised to see the Blues in the Stastny sweepstakes. The Canadiens and Avalanche are rumored to be interested in Stastny and my pick is the Avalanche. Stastny started his career in Colorado and now seems like the perfect time to return. The team is stacked with young talent and Stastny could step in and help lead the team into the playoffs for the second straight season.

James Van Riemsdyk

Kyle’s Pick: Dallas Stars

Contract Prediction: $38M over 6 years; $6.3M AAV

James van Riemsdyk has to be the toughest to predict. On one hand, he is probably the second best forward available on the free agent market behind Tavares. On the other hand, there are probably some trade dominoes that could fall between now and July 1^st that could completely change the landscape for JVR. Tavares’s decision could take a potential suitor out of the mix for JVR. Once Tavares makes his decision, you would have to look at what happens with Ryan O’Reilly and Erik Karlsson. Though both players are players at different positions, adding their salaries will likely shift the amount of cap space available. If Buffalo flips O’Reilly for little salary in return, they suddenly have a plethora of cap space with a need on the wing. If a team trades for O’Reilly or Karlsson, they will likely be committing too much cap space to that player to also add JVR. I think the Stars are a team who are rumored to be looking to make a splash this offseason but will lose out on both Karlsson and Tavares will turn their attention to JVR. I would also watch out for Vegas if they miss out on any of those players as well.

Justin’s Pick: Dallas Stars

Depending on which reporters you are willing to trust it seems like more than half the league has expressed interest in James van Riemsdyk. At this point the most reliable reporters have confirmed most of the rumors so JVR will be a player to watch in free agency. Making a prediction here is going to be tough since so many teams are rumored to be showing interest. I think van Riemsdyk would fit nicely in Dallas. The Stars are in the Tavares sweepstakes so their willingness to pay for a forward is there. JVR would fit nicely in their lineup and the team will be looking to bounce back after missing the playoffs.

Ryan O’Reilly

Kyle’s Pick: Vegas Golden Knights

This pick will likely come as a surprise but I think this makes plenty of sense. Vegas will have to add some salary this offseason and can easily absorb O’Reilly’s cap hit for years to come. O’Reilly might not have the speed of other Vegas players but everything else he brings would be a great fit in Vegas. Vegas doesn’t have a great second-line shutdown center that O’Reilly brings. By acquiring a player who is thought of as one of the best two-way players in the game, Vegas could put their dominant scoring line in an even more favorable position. We can debate how important faceoffs are but Vegas was exposed at the dot in the Stanley Cup Finals. It seemed like they lost nearly every important draw. Ryan O’Reilly solves that. Vegas also has the assets to make a deal happen. I could see a deal revolving around Cody Eakin and Alex Tuch making a lot of sense. Rumors have swirled forever connecting O’Reilly to Montreal and St. Louis that I think if a deal was going to be made that it would have been made already.

Justin’s Pick: Buffalo Sabres

Ryan O’Reilly is not a free agent, but his name has been circulating in trade rumors since the season ended. The Sabres are looking to get faster and moving the $7.5M cap hit would help their cause. The Canadiens and Blues were rumored to be trying to deal for O’Reilly at the draft, but the deals fell through. The Sabres could have been looking to acquire picks in the deal so now that the draft has past I think the he will start the season in Buffalo. Some media members are reporting that the Canadiens have stayed in contact with the Sabres about making a deal. The Sabres have no reason to move him for anything less than maximum value, they are not a cap team and O’Reilly is tremendously valuable to the team.

James Neal

Kyle’s Pick: Nashville Predators

Contract Prediction: $36.6M over 6 years; $6.1M AAV

If my prediction comes true, Neal could sign quickly but will likely end up with a smaller AAV than we have predicted. Since I’m likely wrong with my team prediction, Neal will likely wait until the JVR domino falls. As I was typing this, Pittsburgh just cleared $5M in cap space so they could find themselves in the mix but it looks like the Neal ship in Pittsburgh has already sailed. It seems like Nashville is looking to add again and was certainly disappointed to lose Neal last year so this gives them the opportunity bring Neal back. Basically, what I typed for JVR applies to Neal as well if he doesn’t go to Nashville.

Justin’s Pick: Winnipeg Jets

James Neal is an interesting case, when he was drafted by Vegas it was assumed that he would be traded at the deadline to a contending team. As we all know, Vegas was a contending team, so it would have been a horrible look to trade Neal. Now Vegas is in a tough spot as Neal is an unrestricted free agent. It seems like Vegas will not be bringing him back, so I think a team that misses out on Tavares is a potential fit for Neal. However, Neal is rumored to be looking for a very large contract and the market could dry up rather quickly. It is for this reason that I think Neal will sign a short-term deal in Winnipeg. I suggested Stastny opt for a short-term deal but if he goes to the Avalanche the Jets will have room to add a forward in the short term and Neal fits the bill perfectly. If Neal is unable to get the long term deal he desires, Winnipeg looks to be a good fit in the short term.

Erik Karlsson

Kyle’s Pick: Vegas Golden Knights

If both this prediction and my Ryan O’Reilly prediction come true, Vegas will likely have severely depleted their organization depth but would have an awesome team for next season. Vegas could also take on Bobby Ryan’s contract to lessen the price they would have to pay for Karlsson. Ryan would be a great replacement for James Neal, who seems destined to leave the team. Acquiring Ryan, O’Reilly, and Karlsson would put Vegas close to the cap and it remains to be seen if they would be comfortable operating there. I would imagine Tomas Tatar would have to go back to Ottawa in this type of trade so if this is going to happen it would have to be before July 1^st, when Tatar’s No-Trade kicks in. I’ll probably be wrong on this or the O’Reilly prediction but I’ll hedge my bet. Vegas will make a splash this offseason.

Justin’s Pick: Ottawa Senators

John Carlsson signing was the first defensive domino to fall. Many people expect Erik Karlsson to be the next domino to fall, but I am not one of those people. I think he starts the season in Ottawa. The Senators are facing tons of pressure to put a good product on the ice this year, especially after they kept their first-round pick. The organization is not in good standing right now, a player like Karlsson is the only stabilizing force, moving him would only make matters worse. Holding onto Karlsson could put the team in a tough spot at the trade deadline but I think it is something the organization will do. The way things are going for the Senators I am expecting the worst and holding onto Karlsson and selling him for 50 cents on the dollar the deadline seems like the worst-case scenario.

Calvin de Haan

Kyle’s Pick: New York Islanders

Contract Prediction: $21M over 4 years; $5.2 AAV

I frankly have no clue what will happen with de Haan so I’m going to predict he returns to the Islanders. With new management and coaching in place, de Haan doesn’t have to move to get a fresh start. De Haan wasn’t the problem on the blueline last season and the Islanders are going to have to fill some spots up and down the roster. Retaining de Haan would be one less player they would have to find in free agency. Calvin de Haan would be a great option for teams who wanted to pursue Carlson and miss out on Mike Green. He should have plenty of suitors so a team striking quickly will likely be the one to land him.

Justin’s Pick: New Jersey Devils

Despite a shoulder injury there are several teams who are interested in de Haan. A team I can see signing him are the New Jersey Devils. The Devils have a few free agent defensemen of their own and f they are unable to resign them de Haan could be a fit there. The Devils will have the cap space and a high upside player like de Haan fits exactly what they are looking for. He could be a nice complement to Will Butcher and his puck moving ability would help the forward group as well.

Jack Johnson

Kyle’s Pick: Edmonton Oilers

Contract Prediction: $17M over 4 years; $4.2 AAV

I think Montreal will also be in the mix here. Are we seeing a trend? Ultimately, I think it is Edmonton that makes the move. They seem desperate to add another defenseman and they have yet to do so. Jack Johnson fits everything Edmonton wants. A player with experience who can move the puck and is probably not as good as many hockey people think he is. Edmonton must improve their roster around McDavid and they will think this will do it (though it likely won’t).

Justin’s Pick: Montreal Canadiens

I am not a big Jack Johnson fan, but he will have a handful of teams looking to sign him come July 1^st. The defenseman is aging but there still appears to be quite the demand and willingness to pay. The Penguins are rumored to have interest, but I think trading Sheary and Hunwick was done to go after a bigger fish. The Montreal Canadiens are also rumored to have shown interest and I can see the team being willing to pay. The Habs are in a win now mode despite not having the strongest roster, that is a recipe for a big free agency splash. Johnson fits the bill and would fill a need on the back end. This would seem like a panic move to me, but I would not be surprised to see it go down.

Michal Kempny

Kyle’s Pick: Washington Capitals

Contract Prediction: $7.4M over 2 years; $3.7M AAV

Kempny is probably an underappreciated player who we will probably over shoot with our contract prediction. Teams should be interested in Kempny but if Kempny ultimately wants to stay in Washington, that’s what will happen.

Justin’s Pick: Washington Capitals

This seems like an easy one. Kempny is going to stay in Washington, why would he want to leave and why would the Capitals let him go? After being acquired from the Blackhawks Kempny found his game in Washington and played a key role during the playoff run. He shouldn’t cost the team a crazy amount and his style of play fits the style of play. When the player comes out and says the goal is to resign, it is obvious what the plan is. Kempny will not have to take a large “hometown discount” because his price will not be all that high to begin with.

Mike Green

Kyle’s Pick: Philadelphia Flyers

Contract Prediction: $24M over 4 years; $6M AAV

This is another pick I don’t feel overly confident in but Philadelphia will be poised to make a splash in free agency and this is the biggest fish I think they have any sort of chance at landing. Green is probably an upgrade over Brandon Manning and with cap space and few holes on their roster, the Flyers are in a position to pay for any sort of upgrade they can get. They are probably in a win now window so a short-term deal with Green would make loads of sense.

Justin’s Pick: Detroit Red Wings

Mike Green is an interesting case, he has a very specific skillset that some of the better teams in the league should be looking to acquire. The Capitals and Green are connected for obvious reasons, but I do not see the Caps having enough cap space to make it happen. I can see Green joining the Lightning, but they may need to clear some cap space to make it happen. For those reasons I am predicting that he stays in Detroit. I hate to make the boring prediction, but it looks like Green isn’t chasing the most money and the better teams in the league may not have the cap space required to sign a player like Green.

We hope you enjoyed reading! Please check back often for more free agency related content!

UPDATE (6/28): We have published our free agent contract predictions here

KYLE STICH is the Director of AFP Analytics.  In addition, Mr. Stich is a tax specialist and Director of Operations at AFP Consulting LLC, whose clientele include professional athletes performing services on three separate continents. Mr. Stich earned his Master of Science in Sport Management with a Concentration in Sport Analytics from Columbia University in 2017. He earned his undergraduate degrees in Accounting and Sport Management from St. John Fisher College in 2015, where he has served as an adjunct professor teaching Sport Finance and Baseball Analytics.

JUSTIN WHITE is an intern AFP Analytics. Justin is a graduate of St. John Fisher College where he earned his degree in Sport Management and Statistics. He has worked with the Rochester Americans and members of their coaching staff on various analytics and statistics-based projects.

Before writing this review, I want to preface it with this. The Winnipeg Jets were one of my favorite teams to watch this season. The team played an aggressive style of hockey that allowed their skill players to flourish. Combine that with a solid young goaltender and defense core and you have the recipe for one of the best teams in hockey. If it weren’t for the playoff format forcing the Jets to play the Predators in the second round the team very well could have represented the Western Conference in the Stanley Cup Final.

Bright Spots

Where to even begin? I think it is only right to start with the older core of players that have been in Winnipeg and even Atlanta. Mark Scheifele, Blake Wheeler and Dustin Byfuglien each had fantastic seasons. Scheifele had a tremendous playoff campaign but that should not overshadow his regular season either. The Jets expected goals when Scheifele was on the ice was 1.17, the opponent only had an expected goals per 20 minutes of .86. In other words, he was creating offense and limiting chances on the defensive end. Therefore, it should not come as a surprise that he had 60 points on the season and his offensive numbers ranked near the top of the team in almost every major category.

Blake Wheeler excelled in a setup man role, registering 68 assists while scoring 23 goals. His passing statistics are phenomenal. He was frequently setting up teammates for one timers and he excelled at finding open teammates in the slot. He was dominant on the powerplay and was able to setup the elite shooters on the team with great looks at the net.

Big Dustin Byfuglien was a physical force on defense, but his offensive skill should not be overlooked. The former forward excelled at jumping up in the play and helped create even more chances for the forwards. His most impressive statistics came in the defensive end. Due to his size he was able to recover loose pucks at a 57% clip. If there was a loose puck in front of the Jets net, he was either going to recover the puck or lay a big hit on the opposing player who was also trying to recover it.

It cannot be a bright spots section without mentioning two of the Jets younger stars. Patrik Laine is a natural goal scorer. While he may struggle in his own end at times he more than makes up for it with his offensive output. The 20-year-old scored 44 goals this season and he has a shot that the opposing team has to game plan around. The entire Jets powerplay was built around his shot, everyone in the building knew where the puck was going but he was still able to get pucks to the net. He made 7 plays per 20 minutes that resulted in scoring chances and was a key component to the Jets high flying attack.

Two forwards who may not get the same attention but deserve a mention are Nikolaj Ehlers and Kyle Connor. Ehlers had a Corsi% of 53.5%. The Jets were dominating teams with Ehlers on the ice. In my opinion he was the best puck mover on the team. His entry and exit numbers are very impressive, he had 7 controlled entries into the offensive zone per 20 minutes and 64% of those entries had a successful play follow it up. He was able to drive possession and his speed and skill helped him score 47 even strength points and 60 points in total. Kyle Connor burst onto the scene this season scoring 31 goals. The Jets sheltered him, he had a 36% offensive zone start rate but that should not be a knock on the 21 year old Michigan product. He was another one of the forwards who scored at an impressive rate and if he can develop his defensive game he figures to be one of the key forwards for the Jets for years to come.

Tyler Myers seems to have found a home with the Jets. After being asked to play a top four role in Buffalo the Jets and their stable of solid defenseman allowed Myers to slot into a role that better suited his game. He played almost 1,400 minutes of solid hockey and the Jets allowed his offensive game to flourish. He racked up 30 assists, but he was great at starting the play from the back end. His bulky frame and elite speed helped him have a north-south pass success rate of 61%, which landed him in the top 25% for defenseman. After signing a large contract in Buffalo expectations were high but he has exceeded them in Winnipeg.

Lastly, goaltender Connor Hellebuyck was fantastic and deserved his Vezina Trophy nomination. He was the Jets best penalty killer. His 90.3% save percentage while the Jets were shorthanded was among the best in the league for goaltenders. He also excelled at saving shots that came from the slot and inner slot. Finally, he was able to recover almost 60% of the rebounds he allowed. Goaltenders typically reach their prime later than forwards or defenseman, so the Jets must be excited because he is only 25 years old.

Major Disappointments

Toby Enstrom was a veteran presence for the Jets. While it is impossible to put a value on leadership, his production on the ice did not fall in line with a defenseman who was being paid $5.75M. The contract was signed back in 2012 and the Jets were not hindered by the cap hit this season. However, I would be surprised if he is brought back unless he is willing to take a significant pay cut. His age showed, he was not able to move the puck or skate as well as he did when he was younger.

The Dmitry Kuikov contract was one of the more interesting contract decisions in recent memory. After playing poorly in Buffalo the Jets gave him a 3-year deal with a modified no trade clause. While fans in Buffalo were wondering if his NHL career would be over, the Jets were willing to pay him $4.3M per season. He did improve his play, but he was still one of the weaker defensemen on the team. It would have been easy to find a player who could produce at a similar clip for a fraction of the cost.

This last name is a painful one to add to this list because he is still a solid veteran player, but the contract is one the team might be looking to get out of. Bryan Little had 43 points and a very respectable Corsi% of 51.6%. However, he was being paid $5.3M dollars, that production could come at a lower cost, especially on a team where the player is surrounded by so much talent. Little is an interesting trade chip moving forward for the Jets.

Offseason Plans

The team is heading into the offseason with nearly $24M in available cap space. It is rare for a team who is a strong as the Jets to have so much cap space heading into the offseason, but there will be some decisions for the team to make. Restricted free agents like Brandon Tanev, Joel Armia, Marko Dano and Tucker Poolman figure to take up a sizable portion of the space but they should be signed to short term deals.

Players like Jacob Truba and Josh Morissey could be candidates for longer term deals. Truba has proven his worth and he could sign a deal worth more than $5.5M for longer term. Morissey could get a bridge deal but that could prove to be a costly mistake later in his career.

Connor Hellebuyck is also a restricted free agent who will be paid handsomely. He is entering the prime of his career and the Jets would be wise to lock him up until he is 30 years old. This could result in a 4 or 5-year deal with an AAV close to $7M dollars.

These moves could make the Jets a team that spends close to the cap and Paul Stastny would still be left unsigned. Regardless Stastny can only be signed for one season because the Jets will have large contracts to handout after the upcoming season. If I was running the Jets I would either try to move a player like Bryan Little to make room for Stastny or I would simply keep the team the team as is and let him leave in free agency.

This offseason must be looked at as a way to setup for next year. Blake Wheeler will be an unrestricted free agent and Patrik Laine and Kyle Connor will both be up for RFA extensions. The Jets will want to keep all three players, so they cannot sign contracts this offseason that would prevent that from happening.

In conclusion, the team is going to comeback strong again next year. There is simply too much talent on the roster for the team to not be competing for the Cup again. If I were a betting man, Winnipeg would be a team that I would consider a Stanley Cup favorite heading into 2019.

Please be sure to check in again tomorrow as we take an in-depth look at the Vegas Golden Knights. If you enjoyed this review, please follow us on Twitter, @afpanalytics, and share it with your friends!

Stats have been pulled from NaturalStatTrick.com and Corsica.hockey. Salary info from Capfriendly.com

JUSTIN WHITE is an intern AFP Analytics. Justin is a graduate of St. John Fisher College where he earned his degree in Sport Management and Statistics. He has worked with the Rochester Americans and members of their coaching staff on various analytics and statistics-based projects.

The Tampa Bay Lightning were among the Stanley Cup favorites when the season started, and the team was one of the most exciting teams to watch in all of hockey. The team failed to make the Finals and had to compromise future assets, but the team is still setup for long term success and will surely be listed as a Cup favorite yet again next season.

Bright Spots

We will start with the obvious big three in Tampa. Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov and Victor Hedman are the core of the team and some would argue that they are the best core of players in all of hockey. The two forwards have elite speed and skill and Hedman is a stable force on the back end who is more than capable of defending the best forwards in the game. Stamkos returned from his injury and played like his old self. He scored 27 goals and had 59 assists. He was elite in almost every offensive category, but he was most impressive shooting and on the powerplay. Stamkos was the focal point of one of the leagues best power plays and the threat of his one timer opened lanes for other players. While his shot gets all the headlines he was a fantastic passer as well. He was among the best in the league at creating chances for his teammates and his .42 first assists per 20 minutes was a number that was near the very top of the NHL.

Nikita Kucherov emerged as one of the best forwards in the game as he registered 99 points during the 2017-2018 campaign. Frankly, his numbers are jaw dropping he ranked near the top of the league in almost every offensive measure. He is one of the most exciting players to watch with the puck on his stick and the statistics back up his creativity. He makes 11 plays per 20 minutes that generate scoring chances and can control exits out of the defensive zone and entries into the offensive zone more often than almost every other forward in the league. When he enters the zone, there is a 64% chance a successful play is going to follow, he knows how to get the puck to high danger areas and figures to be one of the top point producers in the NHL for the foreseeable future.

Defensively, Victor Hedman was already mentioned, but Mikhail Sergachev deserves to be focused on in this section as well. Everyone knows that Victor Hedman and Anton Stralman are great defenseman but the young blueliner has the potential to join the elite group as well. Sergachev is only 19 years old but he played more than 1000 minutes at even strength and looks like he is one of the best young defensemen in the game. He is most impressive moving the puck and when Tampa has the man advantage. He plays with a maturity that is well beyond his years and he can make almost 5 plays that generate a scoring chance per 20 minutes, a substantial number for a defenseman. He has a quick stick and is willing to block shots. Sergachev looks to be the total package and slots into the top four of one of the leagues best teams before turning 20.

The team was able to take advantage of a New York Ranger team who was looking to clear contracts and acquire younger assets at the trade deadline. The Lightning have one of the best development systems in hockey, so they were able to trade their 2018 first rounder and a 2019 conditional second round pick along with Vladislav Namestnikov and prospects to the Rangers for Ryan McDounagh and J.T Miller. Both players performed well in Tampa but J.T Miller really stuck out to me. He was a point per game player once he arrived in Tampa Bay and his skillset fits perfectly in the Lightning lineup. He brings a heavier game to a team filled with speed and skill, he receives passes in the slots and is great and fighting for rebounds in the front of the net. More than half of his shots come from in the slot and he played great after arriving in Tampa.

I cannot mention the core of the team without mentioning the goaltender, Andrei Vasilevskiy. The 23-year-old was fantastic this season. His 2.30 goals against average was much better than his expected goals against average of 2.69. This means he was making many saves on shots that were expected to be goals. A solid goaltender playing behind such a talented team is a great recipe for success and his youth should setup the team for long term success.

Lastly, young forwards Brayden Point and Yanni Gourde had great seasons. Like Kucherov, Gourde spent plenty of time in Syracuse which is a testament to the development system setup in Tampa Bay. Each of these players along with other prospects figure to slot into the lineup as the years progress.

Major Disappointments

In short, there really aren’t many specific disappointments for this team. Of course, they fell short of winning the Stanley Cup so the season is not a success but there are few places to assign blame. One player who may have underachieved was Tyler Johnson. After bursting on the scene, he was rewarded with a sizable contract, but his production has stalled to say the least. Johnson only had 50 points this season and was not the elite skater and puck mover the team felt like he would develop into. I envision Johnson recovering pucks and flying in and out of the defensive and offensive zones. However, that was not the case this past season, he only made 14.1 possession driving plays and his entry and exit numbers were not impressive at all. He ranked near the bottom of the league in defensive zone exits and only averaged 4 offensive zone-controlled entries per 20 minutes. Johnson is signed for six more years at $5M per season, that contract could cause problems moving forward if he does not improve a little bit.

The only other specific player I will mention is 33-year-old Braydon Coburn. He has one year left on his contract, but he was not the player the team hoped he would be this past season. His Corsi% was below 50% and the opposing team was expected to score more than Tampa when he was on the ice. For his age, he is a fine player and would be most team’s lineup. However, Tampa Bay is one of the best teams in the league and they very well could be looking to upgrade this offseason.

Offseason Plans

The Lightning will be in an interesting situation this offseason. They have key free agents and will have about $10M in cap space. The team is fantastic, but perhaps they could use a shakeup. Expectations will be high and taking another run at the cup with the exact same core may be the safe move, but the safe move is not always the right move. JT Miller and Cedric Paquette are both restricted free agents. Teams should always look to lock the player up long term, and I would look to do that for both forwards. Miller looks like a $6M dollar player and Paquette could probably be locked up for about $2M. Paquette is more than likely going to get a bridge deal which will probably come back to bite Tampa but that is a discussion for another day. This would leave the team with roughly $2M left to spend, not exactly the ideal position.

It is no secret that the team is in a win now mode but unfortunately, they will have to let players like Chris Kunitz and Andrej Sustr walk, which really shouldn’t hurt the team too much. If I were in charge I would look to move Tyler Johnson, his value is probably as high as it is going to get and that ap flexibility could open many other options. It will be interesting to see how Tampa handles this offseason. Who could fault Yzerman if he decides to give this group one more shot? If I were running the show I would move one piece for a new weapon just to try to freshen things up and add a new skillset to an already well-rounded team.

Please be sure to check in again tomorrow as we take an in-depth look at the Winnipeg Jets. If you enjoyed this review, please follow us on Twitter, @afpanalytics, and share it with your friends

Stats have been pulled from NaturalStatTrick.com and Corsica.hockey. Salary info from Capfriendly.com

JUSTIN WHITE is an intern AFP Analytics. Justin is a graduate of St. John Fisher College where he earned his degree in Sport Management and Statistics. He has worked with the Rochester Americans and members of their coaching staff on various analytics and statistics-based projects.

The Boston Bruins have had the same core of players for several seasons now, so it should not come as a surprise that the team was in the postseason yet again. The team outperformed expectations this season thanks to a new group of young players who were able to step up and perform well at the NHL level. Some experts may have felt that the Bruins were heading in the wrong direction, but this past season should lead people into thinking the opposite. The Bruins look like a team that will contend in the Eastern Conference for seasons to come.

Bright Spots

The team has been one of the best possession teams in recent memory and a sizeable portion of the credit should go to the usual suspects, Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand. Bergeron missed some time due to injury, but he still was able to put up fantastic numbers. As expected, his Corsi% was well above 50% and more than 60% of his touches in the offensive zone were considered successful. The only players on the team who had a better rate were David Krejci and Rick Nash. Brad Marchand has taken a lot of heat in the media after his antics in the postseason, but that should not necessarily take away from the tremendous season he had. Marchand registered 85 points in 68 games and was one of the best playmakers in the league. He attempted 173 shots from the slot, 18 more than the next highest on the team. There is not much else to say about these two players, they are among the best two-way players in the league and are a stabilizing force in the Bruins lineup.

David Pastrnak was the player who attempted the second most shots from the slot and he is quickly emerging as one of the best young talents in the league. The 22-year-old forward played in all 82 games and scored 35 goals and racked up 45 assists. Pastrnak was so successful because more than 40% of his shots came from the slot, he was able to get to scoring areas and a player of his speed and skill is going to put up points once he gets into the high danger areas. Shooting wasn’t the only think Pastrnak was doing well in the slot, 34% of his passes were sent into the slot as well. The Bruins possess the puck more often than their opponents so having players like Pastrnak who can generate offense on their own make the team that much more dangerous.

This next section will highlight a handful of young forwards who emerged and played a key role in Boston this season. Jake Debrusk, Anders Bjork and Danton Heinen all impressed with the Bruins. The players have shown they can play anywhere in the lineup and are a talented group of players to complement the older core group. The trio of players ranked in the top half of Bruins when looking at expected goals for when the players were on the ice. The players are responsible in their own end and are more than capable of putting up points as well. The three combined for 102 points in 177 games, a rate more than serviceable for young players playing the role this group was asked to play in Boston.

Defensively speaking, Zdeno Chara played his usual big minutes and still performed well despite aging and possibly losing a step. Luckily, the Bruins have three other young defenseman who appear more than ready to take some of the load off Chara’s shoulder. Torrey Krug, Charlie McAvoy and Kevan Miller all impressed this season. Krug and McAvoy are the perfect modern-day defenseman. They have speed and skill and are more than capable of being able to contribute offensively. Kevan Miller has the reputation of being more of a stay at home defenseman but even he can help the Bruins offensively. All three of the players had offensive zone pass success rates above 60% and the three were in the top four when it comes to moving the puck out of the defensive zone as well.

Lastly, Tuukka Rask had a fantastic season. His expected goals against average was 2.55 but he outperformed the expectations and only yielded a 2.37. He was in the top third of the league when it comes to controlling rebounds. He only allowed rebounds on 57.5% of the shots he saw. This means that 42.5% of shots on the Bruins net were controlled by Rask and there was no loose puck or second scoring chance for the opposing team. In the simplest terms Rask started 53 games and won 34 of them. Fans in Boston seem to have very extreme opinions when it comes to Rask and I feel like I would fall on the side that supports Rask and thinks that he is among the best goalies in the league.

Major Disappointments

The Bruins dominated opponents and possessed the puck at an excellent rate, so there will not be many disappointments. However, there are a few contracts on the Bruins books that the management team would probably like to find a way out of. The first player that comes to mind here is David Backes. The team has 3 years left with a $6M dollar cap hit. Backes is already 34 years old and he is no longer playing like he did years ago during his tenure in St. Louis. He really struggled with the puck on his stick, he only controlled 2 entries into the offensive zone per twenty minutes. Perhaps he could have gotten away with this a few years ago but now teams are looking for speed and skill. Unfortunately, Backes has lost a step and his high cap hit makes him a tough asset to trade.

I want to preface this next player with this statement. I have never been a huge fan of David Krejci, when a team goes into a game against the Bruins I do not feel that Krejci is high on this list of players the opposing team is game planning against. He is a serviceable player but $7.25M dollars is a steep price to pay for 44 points in 64 games. Looking through his numbers there really aren’t any that jump off the page in either direction. He looks like a player who should make between $4M and $5M per season. I would never fault a player for getting paid, but the team surely wishes that they could have Krejci on a more team friendly deal.

Offseason Plans

The team heads into the offseason with only $12M dollars or so in cap space. The team has a handful of free agents that they will need to resign and there are holes to fill in the lineup. Seam Kuraly, Tim Schaller and Matt Grzelcyk should all be brought back on small cap hit deals. This could leave the team with somewhere between $7M and $8M in cap space. Anton Khudobin is a UFA which means the Bruins will be in the market for a backup goaltender as well. Whoever the team chooses to sign figures to cost a few million dollars which means the Bruins cap space is shrinking quickly before the team must make its biggest decision.

The team must resign Nash. The 29-year-old forward was one of the teams’ best penalty killers and showed he had offensive flash as well. Sorry for the confusion, I am talking about Riley Nash, not Rick. The Bruins are best off letting Rick Nash walk. He was acquired as a rental piece to help the team win the Stanley Cup. Unfortunately, the team fell short but with Charlie McAvoy and young forwards like Heinen and Ryan Donato needing new contracts soon the team simply will not have the space to sign Rick Nash. He is already 33 years old and the Bruins have enough forwards that age or older. There is no shame in making the move to try to win the cup, if Rick Nash is allowed to walk this could give the team the cap flexibility needed to possibly make another move at the deadline this upcoming season.

On the other hand, Riley Nash looks like he could be signed at a team friendly cost. He plays in all situations and I would guess he could be signed for roughly $2.5M dollars per year. That is the type of value contracts that smart teams sign and I would not be surprised if Riley Nash is signed by a contender if the Bruins choose to head in a different direction.

In conclusion, the time for the Bruins to win is now. The team will be a cap team this upcoming season and the aging core is still capable of performing at a high level, but it is not easy to know how long the level of production will last. As the young players continue to develop the Bruins should only get better, but it will be important to win now with players like Chara, Bergeron and Rask still playing at a very high level.

Please be sure to check in again tomorrow as we take an in-depth look at the Nashville Predators. If you enjoyed this review, please follow us on Twitter, @afpanalytics, and share it with your friends!

Stats have been pulled from NaturalStatTrick.com and Corsica.hockey. Salary info from Capfriendly.com

JUSTIN WHITE is an intern AFP Analytics. Justin is a graduate of St. John Fisher College where he earned his degree in Sport Management and Statistics. He has worked with the Rochester Americans and members of their coaching staff on various analytics and statistics-based projects.

The NHL is simply a more exciting league when the Toronto Maple Leafs are a competitive team and the team appears to be built to be competitive for a long time. It is not a secret that the Leafs fully bought into a youth movement and the team is set to reap the benefits for the years to come. The team will have some tough decisions to make this offseason with members of the “old core” but the new core looks set to take over.

Bright Spots

The first bright spot worth mentioning here is obviously Nikita Zaitsev. Kidding of course, Auston Matthews is the heartbeat and future captain of the team and it should come as no surprise that he is the first bright spot I will focus on. He scored 34 goals and had 29 assists in only 62 games. There is not much I can say that has not already been said so I will try to focus on some unique stats that other articles of this nature may not have noticed. The focus will always be on his offensive talent, and rightfully so, but he is great without the puck in his own end as well. He blocks passes in the defensive zone and even blocks more than 1 shot per 20 minutes. This should not come as a surprise because a player of Matthews’ skill level just knows where to be at all times when he is on the ice. it is a testament to his hockey sense, which is difficult to measure but when looking at numbers like this it starts to make more sense. Before I move on from Matthews I wanted to point out an offensive statistic that separates Matthews from other high-end skill players. His ability to get to the slot and get pucks on net is comparable to Alex Ovechkin, he gets more than 2 shots on next per 20 minutes from the slot, a rate good enough to be near the top of the league.

Two years ago, William Nylander was the young player who burst onto the scene alongside Matthews. Nylander had another solid campaign in 2017 but if when the history of the Leafs is being written 2017 will be remembered and the year that Mitch Marner came out of his shell. Marner scored 22 goals and set up 47 more, good for 69 points, 8 more than he had in the previous season. Losing to Boston hurt but Marner was fantastic in the series, amassing 9 points in the seven games. He looks like a great complement to the Matthews-Nylander line. He also was a great possession player, his 53.6% Corsi was one of the best on the team. The high volume of assists should mean the following statistics should not come as a surprise. Marner had a pass to the slot success rate of 42% and was able to make 1.62 successful passes to the slot per 20 minutes. In other words, he is great at setting up players in the best positions to score. Marner should continue to develop and get stronger, if he can up his individual goal total the Leafs will have a two headed monster in Marner and Matthews.

It looks like the Leafs may have found half of their top pair moving forward. Twenty-four-year-old Morgan Rielly played top minutes and excelled in his time on ice. he produced 52 points on the year and is great to have on the powerplay to pair up with the skilled forwards. It is no secret that his biggest strength is his offensive upside and the statistics only further that ideology. He makes about 4.5 plays per 20 minutes (5v5) that generate scoring chances for the Leafs. Toronto is at its best off the rush and Rielly is among the best in the league at executing stretch passes. These passes get the pucks up ice to forwards quickly and Toronto has more than enough skill up front to capitalize. Some of his defensive numbers are not as impressive but I think Rielly is a fitting example of the idea that the best defense is a good offense. He is a positive Corsi player and a big focus of the Leafs plan moving forward must be finding a defensive minded partner to play big minutes alongside Rielly.

Perhaps that option may already be on the roster. Travis Dermott was called up in January and was a mainstay on the roster for the remainder of the season. Some of his defensive measurables are among the best in the league from the time he was called up. He denied more than half of the zone entries where he was defined as the primary defender. Dermott is not the biggest player, he is only 6 feet tall and weighs 208 pounds, but he uses his body and stick well. He does well to win contested puck battles and recoveries opponents dump-ins at a high rate. The only issue with a Dermott/Rielly pairing is the fact that they are both lefthanded shots. Teams prefer having a right-handed defenseman to play opposite the lefties. Regardless, Dermott should slot into the top four in Toronto for years to come.

Major Disappointments

The Leafs must have been sick of being pushed around by the Bruins in the division because the team went out and signed Matt Martin after the 2015-2016 season. This past year he only appeared in 50 games and was a healthy scratch late in the season. His cap hit is $2.5M which is not a complete disaster, but the team would certainly like a player making that much money to be in the lineup night in and night out. For reference, Zach Hyman played with Auston Matthews for most of the year and his cap hit was only $2.25M. Martin plays a heavy game and the numbers back that up but unfortunately there is not much else he brings to the table.

Leo Komarov was another interesting case for the Leafs. In my opinion he was one of the worst forwards on the roster. He did play a defensive role, he only had a 20% offensive zone start rate and he often played against top competition. However, that role can be filled by several players who would not cost as much as Komarov ($2.95M). His Corsi% was 45.2%, which is one of the worst on the team. In the bright spot section, I highlighted how good Matthews and Marner are with the puck on their stick. In this section I will explain how much Komarov struggled. He rarely possessed the puck in the offensive zone, he only had possession for 18 seconds during every 20 minutes of ice time. The real issue is with his defensive metrics, for a forward who is supposed to play a shutdown role his numbers are not very impressive. He is a good shot blocker and does a decent job denying entries but once the puck is in the zone he appears to be a step slow. When Komarov is on the ice opponents register, 3 scoring chances that are considered “off the cycle”. Essentially it means teams can possess the puck and create chances against the Leafs when Komarov is on the ice. Luckily for the Leafs he is a pending UFA, so the team could decide to let him walk and test the market.

Lastly, there are some defenseman that should be written about in this section. To say Roman Polak had a tough year would be putting it gently. The 32-year-old veteran appeared in 54 games this year. He had a sub-50% Corsi (47.4%) and I think this happened because he is not a very good passer. His outlet passes are only successful 60% of the time, the number drops to 50% when the pass is extended to be considered a stretch pass. In other words, he is not very good at moving the puck up ice away from the Leaf net. He was a physical presence, but I would be surprised if the Leafs also opt to let him leave the team this offseason.

Offseason Plan

The first issue I would tackle if I were Kyle Dubas would be to lock up William Nylander long-term. Nylander is a productive player who will be in his prime during the contract and the team will have a “big 3” of Matthews, Marner and Nylander moving forward. A 5-7-year deal with an AAV of somewhere between 7 and 9 million dollars seems right for Nylander. He is an exciting young talent but does not command 10M and it makes sense for him to be the second or third highest paid player on a team. Auston Matthews will get a megadeal, so locking up Nylander for less would be good for the team and the player. The easy comparison is to Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl in Edmonton, Toronto will want to have something similar moving forward. We previously wrote why signing Nylander long-term makes the most sense. That article can be found here.

Signing Nylander seems like a no brainer for the Leafs but that is the only easy choice they will make this offseason. The team has 22M in cap space but for arguments sake let’s assume they have 16M after resigning Nylander. Members of the old core are all UFAs and I am curious to see how Dubas will handle the situation. Tyler Bozak, Leo Komarov and James van Riemsdyk have all been with the team for an extended period and will be able to test the market. Tomas Plekanec was acquired during the season and he will also be a UFA. I would not be surprised if Dubas lets all the players walk. When a new General Manager is hired it seems like he is always looking to put his stamp on the team. Dubas has worked extensively with the Toronto Marlies and is very familiar with young prospects like Kasperi Kapanen, Jeremy Bracco and Timothy Liljegren. It would not come as a surprise if two, or maybe even three, of these players start the season in the NHL next year.

I mentioned what Dubas could do but now I will mention what I would do. I would let Plekanec, Komarov, van Riemsdyk, Polak and Dominic Moore sign elsewhere. James Van Riemsdyk Is the one player on the list that some would argue the Leafs should keep. To me, it comes down to JVR or Tyler Bozak. I would choose Bozak because I like him as a player, but it is more about value. Van Riemsdyk is going to sign a big money contract on July 1^st and I am always wary of giving out big contracts in free agency. JVR is 29 and Bozak is 32, so in theory both players are already past their primes. If van Riemsdyk is not past his prime, he is certainly at the tail end. Regardless, he figures to sign for at least 5 years and should make at least 5-5.5M per season. This means his contract would end at age 34, I would rather sign Bozak until he is 35 at a contract with a cap hit closer to $4M. Bozak plays a solid two-way game at center and would be very difficult to replace in the Leaf lineup. JVR is talented but I think it is reasonable to expect the much younger Kapanen to produce at a similar level at a much more team friendly cost.

Even if the team fills some slots with younger players I would expect the team to be relatively active in the free agent market. However, it might not be in the way fans might expect from the Leafs. Kyle Dubas does not seem like the type to throw big money at the biggest names, instead I would expect hm to try to find value where other teams are not looking. I would not be surprised if Toronto ended up signing a handful of $1.5-3M dollar players who are minimal risk but have a chance to be high reward players. Michael Grabner is a name that comes to mind, while his price may be a bit higher than the $3M his statistics make him seem like a player Dubas and his team might covet.

Regardless of what actions Dubas takes the Leafs have a strong young core that should be competitive for a playoff spot. It will be interesting to see how the team handles the heightened expectations and how potential changes will impact the style of play. Assuming Mike Babcock and Auston Matthews have handled their rumored issues the core of the Leafs should have the team competing with the Boston and Tampa Bay for the top spot in the division again next season.

Please be sure to check in again tomorrow as we take an in-depth look at the Boston Bruins. If you enjoyed this review, please follow us on Twitter, @afpanalytics, and share it with your friends!

Stats have been pulled from NaturalStatTrick.com and Corsica.hockey. Salary info from Capfriendly.com

JUSTIN WHITE is an intern AFP Analytics. Justin is a graduate of St. John Fisher College where he earned his degree in Sport Management and Statistics. He has worked with the Rochester Americans and members of their coaching staff on various analytics and statistics-based projects.

The San Jose Sharks have been one of those teams you can pencil into the playoffs year in and year out for quite a while now. The core of Thornton, Couture and Pavelski have seen the playoffs often and the team has had various levels of success in the postseason. After their dismantling of the Ducks the team must have had high hopes heading into their series against the Vegas Golden Knights. However, the Knights proved themselves yet again and beat the Sharks relatively easily. The team will have a series of decisions to make this offseason and their core could look very different moving forward.

Bright Spots

I know I mentioned the core above, but the bright spots section is going to focus on the young players who have the chance to take over and become the new core. The Sharks are in a position where they still have their veteran players but the top players on the team are younger. Tomas Hertl made a name for himself in the playoffs a few years ago but he has developed into quite the player for the Sharks. He plays in all situations and was able to register 47 points on the season. He moves the puck best when on the rush, his controlled entries have a successful play after more than 58% of the time. On the powerplay he is a force to be reckoned with in the front of the net. He tips more than 3 shots per 20 minutes and attempts more than 5.5 shots from the inner slot in that same time frame. He is also a valuable penalty killer and a solid defensive forward during 5v5 play as well. He blocks shots and is great at recovering loose pucks in the defensive zone, recovering more than 8 loose pucks per 20 minutes.

Twenty-one-year-old Timo Meier scored 21 goals and had 15 assists in 2017-18 and he must be a forward that excites the Sharks management team. He had a 52.6% Corsi and the Sharks expected goals with him on the ice was higher than the opponents expected goals. He is like Hertl in the sense that both players have a knack for getting pucks on net from the slot while on the powerplay and during 5v5 play. While on the powerplay 91.3% of his shots come from inside the slot which results in 8.19 scoring chances per twenty minutes while on the powerplay. He was a top 10 draft pick in 2015 and rounded into form this year.

Joonas Donskoi was one of the team’s best possession players with a 55.6% Corsi%. He is a great offensive player; the Sharks were expected to outscore the opponent by .3 goals per 20 minutes with Donskoi on the ice. That almost amounts to one goal every three games which creates quite the advantage for the Sharks. A deeper look at his numbers illustrates just how valuable he is to the Sharks offensive attack. He makes 22.7 possession driving plays per 20 minutes, those plays could include his 9.07 controlled defensive zone exits and his 5.73 offensive zone entries. He is an exciting player with the puck on his stick and he has proven to be responsible with the puck as well.

I cannot have a bright spots section without mentioning the core of players that fans immediately think of when thinking about the Sharks. Brett Burns is one of the best defenseman in the league, there is not much I can say that has not already been said. Up front the team relied on Thornton, Pavelski and Couture and the trio performed up to expectations yet again. Evander Kane was a midseason acquisition who performed well for the Sharks. Unfortunately, he was not 100% healthy in the playoffs but regardless the team was satisfied with Kane’s play and he was rewarded with a 7-year contract worth $49 million.

Major Disappointments

We are getting to the point in our review series where the teams will not have many disappointments. I want to preface this section with this. These players are not below average players, in some cases they are even above average, but they are not necessarily playing up to the level of the contract. In other words, the Sharks could replace these players with a different player with a similar contract and they would see more production on the ice.

The first player that I feel fits this bill is Brenden Dillon. He had a $3. 3M dollar cap hit this year and I feel like his production was just a hair short of that cost. Again, I am being very picky, but I think there is room for improvement here. He has good possession numbers, but the Sharks are expected to be outscored while he is on the ice. I think this can be attributed to the fact that he is not very good in his defensive zone without the puck. He does not block many shots or passes, and he only wins 34% of his loose puck battles in the defensive zone. He is a fine player, but I think that he can be even better which would undoubtably help the Sharks.

Up front, Mikkel Boedker did not have a strong season. He only registered 37 points and struggled possessing the puck. The Sharks were only expected to score .85 goals per 20 with him on the ice and they were expected to allow 1 goal. He was not used in a highly offensive role, he only had a 28.7 offensive zone start percentage. However, he makes $4M per year and a player who plays a similar role could probably be signed for a fraction of the cost.

Offseason Plan

The Sharks are unique in the way they structured their forward contracts. This offseason they have six forwards who will be free agents and next offseason they will have nine free agents to be. After signing Evander Kane, the team only has $7.5M in projected cap space but the cap may rise more than expected so I will say they have $11.5M. regardless they will have some decisions to make. Thomas Hertl and Chris Tierney are both RFAs and if I were in charge I would want to retain both of those players. I would guess the cost to keep both would fall between 6M and 7M which does not leave the team with much flexibility.

If the team opts to resign those two players a buyout of Paul Martin might make sense. That would free $2.8M in cap space which opens plenty more doors. Joe Thornton is an interesting case, by all indications, it looks like he wants to come back to the Sharks and it might be up to the Sharks to make the call. Personally, I would probably let him walk but if he is willing to sign a one-year deal at a team friendly number the Sharks would be crazy not to resign him.

I would be remised not to talk about John Tavares, but I would be shocked if the Sharks are able to work out a deal. Signing Evander Kane eliminated a large percent of the cap and signing Hertl and Tierney would eliminate even more. The real reason why I do not see the team signing Tavares is that Logan Couture and Joe Pavelski are both due to be UFAs in 2019. This could create a very tough salary cap situation. However, if Tavares were to come to the Sharks and say I want to come to San Jose I would expect the Sharks to do whatever it takes to make that happen.

If I were the Sharks I would operate under the assumption that Tavares is not coming to San Jose. The team has enough to worry about but I would look to lock up their own RFAs and explore bringing back Thornton. The goaltending situation with Martin Jones is solid and there is no reason the team should not qualify for the postseason again next season.

Please be sure to check in again tomorrow as we take an in-depth look at the Toronto Maple Leafs. If you enjoyed this review, please follow us on Twitter, @afpanalytics, and share it with your friends!

Stats have been pulled from NaturalStatTrick.com and Corsica.hockey. Salary info from Capfriendly.com

JUSTIN WHITE is an intern AFP Analytics. Justin is a graduate of St. John Fisher College where he earned his degree in Sport Management and Statistics. He has worked with the Rochester Americans and members of their coaching staff on various analytics and statistics-based projects.

When the NHL season starts, it is usually a safe bet to pencil the Ducks into the playoffs. The team has only missed the playoffs twice since the 2004-2005 lockout year. This season was no different as the team qualified yet again. Unfortunately, they were a no show against the Sharks and got swept in embarrassing fashion in the first round. If you have read previous team reviews, you know we feel that if a team is consistently good enough to make the playoffs but has not won the Stanley Cup then perhaps the team should shake up its core of players. We will explore some options for the Ducks later in the piece.

Bright Spots

Despite the playoff shortcomings there were quite a few bright spots for the Ducks this season. Rickard Rakell stepped out from underneath players like Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry to be the most dynamic offensive player on the team. He scored 34 goals and had 35 assists. The team did not have great possession numbers, their team Corsi% was 48.57%. Rakell had an individual percentage of 49.8% which is near the top of their forward group. He was able to register so many goals because he had a knack for finding the puck in the high danger areas. He had nearly 2 shots on net from the slot per twenty minutes of ice time. He is a great skater, so his 2.71 open ice dekes per 20 means that he is using his speed and skill to get into high scoring areas. Rakell produced on the powerplay and is under contract until 2022 so he figures to be a key contributor moving forward.

Trading Sami Vatanen for Adam Henrique was one of the more interesting deals in recent memory. The trade happened well before deadline day, as Henrique was able to play in 57 games with the Ducks. The Ducks had to be happy with the production they got from Henrique. A look at his advanced statistics show that he is a fantastic defensive forward, but he was able to contribute offensively as well. As a member of the Ducks he scored 20 goals and had 16 assists, 8 of those 36 points came on the power play. Like we mentioned earlier his defense is where he truly excels, he is fantastic without the puck on his stick. He blocks 6.25 passes per 20 minutes, 2.27 of those passes blocked are in the defensive zone. What this means is he breaking up plays in all zones and is frequently around the puck which can help create quick offense for the Ducks. Henrique is a special type of forward, he can play in all situations and has the scoring touch to finish his chances. When looking at the talent the Ducks had on defense trading one of them for a player like Henrique looks like a solid move to me.

The last forward that we will focus on in the bright spots section is 22-year-old Ondrej Kase. Kase had a 53.5% Corsi rating, which is fantastic considering the team corsi and how young he is. He did outperform is expected goals for by a large margin so expecting him to score 20 goals again next year might be a touch high but the point that the Ducks were a better team with Kase on the ice cannot be argued. The team is expected to score .92 goals per 20 minutes with Kase on the ice and is only expected to allow .75 goals in that same amount of time. His skating and puck control are the most exciting aspects of his game, he is frequently able to exit the defensive zone with control of the puck and in some cases, he is controlling the puck all the way into the offensive zone. He uses his feet to make 20 possession driving plays per 20 minutes and has impressive possession time numbers when the Ducks are in the offensive zone. Kase is a pending RFA and it will be interesting to see what type of deal the Ducks choose to go with, I will explain my ideal strategy in the offseason plans section.

There are four players on defense that deserve mention in this section. Josh Manson, Cam Fowler, Brandon Montour and Hampus Lindholm all had solid seasons. Fowler is the veteran of the group, but Manson played the most minutes at 5v5 and had the best corsi rating of the group. Regardless, the four have skillsets that fit the modern style of play and they even complement each other well. Lindholm is the best pure defender of the group while Manson and Fowler provide great offensive touch. Montour is well rounded and excels in both zones. We will take a closer look at the contract situations soon, but the Ducks would be wise to keep the four players under team control for as long as possible.

Lastly, Ryan Miller deserves credit for how well he performed while John Gibson was injured. Miller had a .940 save percentage but his most impressive number is his .882 save percentage on shots from the slot. The Ducks had to be ecstatic about the quality of play they got from Miller this season.

Major Disappointments

The clear disappointment is the playoff no show, allowing 8 goals in San Jose in Game 3 is not a moment the franchise will want to remember. The health issues surrounding John Gibson heading into the playoffs surely played a role in the demise but let’s call a spade a spade here, the team was simply not ready to play against the Sharks.

Throughout the season there were a few disappointments as well. Ryan Kesler was not able to start his season until after the Christmas break due to injury so that immediately qualifies as a disappointment. However, when he was on the ice he did not produce like a player who has a $6.9M dollar cap hit. He only produced 12 points and the opponents were expected to score more goals than the Ducks while Kesler was on the ice. He has a reputation of being a solid two-way player but when he is not producing points and the opponent is expected to score more than the Ducks while he is on the ice I am not sure where he provides value to a team.

The last part of this section will be a group of aging players who simply do not perform at a level that they once did. Kevin Bieksa, Jason Chimera, Antoine Vermette and even Andrew Cogliano did not perform like they did earlier in their careers. It is not a knock on those players, it is just the way things go for players as the age. Luckily, the Ducks management was smart about it and most of the players mentioned are going to be UFAs and they will be replaced by younger options. The Ducks will head into the offseason with about $13M in cap space

Offseason Plans

If you are a Ducks fan the time to stop reading might be now. The offseason is going to be tough on the Ducks and if one NHL team decided to use an offer sheet the team is going to have to make a very unfavorable move. Both Brandon Montour and Ondrej Kase are RFAs. This means they can sign an offer sheet from another team. However, teams are nervous to use the offer sheets because there is a fear that no other GM would want to work with a GM who takes advantage of a vulnerable team. If I were a team with cap space I would offer sheet both players and force the Ducks hand. Let’s say the Ducks want to keep both players, they have the cap space to do so, they would just need to make a corresponding move to clear cap space, so they are able to field a full roster.  If Kase gets offered something like 3 years at $3M AAV and Montour gets offered 3 years at $3.75M AAV this would leave the Ducks with about $7M to sign somewhere between 5 and 7 players. The Ducks will want to keep both players which means they will have to make moves to clear cap space.

As teams smarten up it is becoming more and more difficult to clear cap space. Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry each are still more than serviceable players, but I do not know many teams that would be lining up to trade young talent for 33-year-old forwards with $8.6M dollar cap hits. From a PR standpoint it would be a nightmare to move players like Getzlaf and Perry and we already went over why other teams would be unwilling to make the move. The next player on the list is Ryan Kesler and he is the player I think the Ducks will end up moving. However, the move will not be pretty. The Ducks will have to include assets like picks and prospects to entice a team to take on the aging Kesler and his large cap hit. The return will not be much, and it will leave a sour taste in the mouth of fans and management alike.

At forward the Ducks has 5 UFAs, Derek Grant, Antoinne Vermette, Chris Kelly, Jason Chimera and J.T Brown are all set to test the market and if I am the Ducks I let all five players walk. I focus on signing another RFA, Nick Ritchie. Ritchie is a player who should not break the bank and is a player the Ducks will likely want to keep in the fold. Kevin Bieksa should be let go on the defensive end and Andy Welinski is an RFA who should be signed back for no more than $1M.

Let’s say the Ducks can hold onto Kase, Ritchie, Montour and Welinski. This leaves 5 or 6 roster spots left to fill. They can promote players from the AHL but using the AHL to fill that many spots is highly unlikely, so the team will have to sign some free agents, but the players will be low contract players who will not be expected to play a key role in Anaheim.

In conclusion, the Ducks must move money off the books and the clear option to be moved is Kesler. If the Ducks were not a competitive team I would suggest trying to move a player like Cam Fowler for picks and prospects. However, this is not likely to happen because Fowler has a modified no trade clause and is able to submit a list of 4 teams he is willing to be moved to. Also, I would be surprised if the Ducks move a player who contributes as much as Fowler because, even with the cap concerns, they are a team who should compete for a playoff spot again next year.

There is no sense in delaying the inevitable, waiting on the cap to continue to rise is a risky game to play and moving Kesler now and taking the punch of losing assets to lock up Kase and Montour is the move I would make. This allows the team to remain competitive and attacks a problem before it blows up into something worse. Look for the Ducks to try to solve their cap issues without sacrificing too much which should allow the team to compete for the playoffs again in 2019.

Please be sure to check in again tomorrow as we take an in-depth look at the San Jose Sharks. If you enjoyed this review, please follow us on Twitter, @afpanalytics, and share it with your friends!

Stats have been pulled from NaturalStatTrick.com and Corsica.hockey. Salary info from Capfriendly.com

JUSTIN WHITE is an intern AFP Analytics. Justin is a graduate of St. John Fisher College where he earned his degree in Sport Management and Statistics. He has worked with the Rochester Americans and members of their coaching staff on various analytics and statistics based projects.

The Philadelphia Flyers season can be defined by a pair of streaks, the ten-game losing streak and then the stretch of games that followed. The team had way too much talent to lose ten consecutive games so the team bouncing back strong was both a testament of character and a regression to the mean. The Flyers were eliminated by the Penguins in the playoffs but considering that the team went on a losing streak that was 1/8^th of the season I would be hesitant to call the season a failure and the team is well built for future success.

Bright Spots

The Flyers have a great mix of youth and veterans at both forward and defense. We will start this bright spot section with a quick look at the core group of forwards. Of course, the players are Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek and Sean Couturier. The trio collectively scored 85 goals and registered 178 assists, good for 263 total points. All three players played in all 82 games which means the Flyers essentially went into every game knowing at least one goal would be produced by these three players. Giroux was the best of the bunch, his 102 points and 54.1% Corsi rating made him the focal point of the Flyers attack. Voracek and Couturier each had Corsi ratings above 50% as well. Voracek’s was 50.9% and Couturier edged out Giroux with a 54.6%. Expected Goals For is a great metric to gage the players ability to finish when in position to score, it can also be used to show whether a player’s goal output can be reasonable to expect year in and year out. If a player outperforms his expected goals by a high degree I would not expect the player to score as many goals in the next season. In this case none of the three players outperformed the metric by a significant amount. In fact, Voracek underperformed slightly but it was to such a small degree the team should not be concerned. All three players are under contract for the foreseeable future, so Flyers fans have every right to be excited about this trio of talented players.

Now let’s shift the focus to some of the younger forwards. Travis Konecny and Nolan Patrick were each highly touted prospects who each saw close to one thousand minutes of ice time in 2017-2018. Each player plays a unique style of game, so we will take a closer look at each of the two individuals. On the surface Konecny’s 24 goals and 23 assists are impressive enough for a 21-year-old player. Adding the nugget that 44 of those points came at even strength makes the numbers pop even more. As if Flyer fans were not excited enough an even deeper dive into some of his more advanced statistics illuminates the fact that the Flyers may have a special talent in Konecny. He attempted nearly 2 shots from the slot per 20 minutes of ice time and made 8.56 plays that generated scoring chances in 20 minutes of ice time as well. Both of those numbers are fantastic but the area where he really excelled is individual possession time in the offensive zone. Every 20 minutes he was on the ice, he had the puck on his stick for 41 seconds in the offensive zone. At first glance 41 seconds seems like such a small amount of time but when you sit back and think about a period of hockey, how much of the period is spent in the neutral zone? How much of the period is spent chasing after loose pucks? For reference, Jack Eichel did everything for an abysmal Sabres team this past season and his number was 48 seconds.

Patrick is only 19 years old and plays a less physical game than Konecny, so his expectations had to be a touch lower, especially as the season progressed. The fact that he played so many NHL minutes should be considered a successful campaign for Patrick. The Flyers did an excellent job giving him power play time which allowed him to register 13 goals and 17 assists for 30 points. If that is his production in 3 seasons the Flyers will have a problem, but a player selected so high in the draft is likely to develop into quite the player. Next offseason I would expect Patrick to have a longer section in the season bright spots section.

On defense two young players stood out among some of the veterans the team signed to help hold down the fort. Ivan Provorov and Travis Sanheim impressed this season, Provorov played more than 150 5v5 minutes than Shayne Gostisbehere to lead the team in 5v5 minutes by a wide margin. He has a great shot, his .19 goals per 20 is near the top of the league for defenseman. He is a smooth skater as well, he controls entries into the zone and can make a possession driving play every minute he is on the ice. his speed also helps him recover 71.7% of the opponents dump ins. In a perfect world he can recover the dump in and immediately use his speed and skill to turn the puck up ice. He played 208 shorthanded minutes and the Flyers did not try to shelter him at all. His 30.8% offensive zone start percentage is right on par with some of the best two-way defenseman in the league. It looks like he is a young defenseman you could build a defensive corps around.

Travis Sanheim is not quite the player that Provorov is, but the 22-year-old should not be discredited for his contributions either. He is shockingly average but excels in a few key areas and struggles with nothing. If I were a GM I would be more than happy to have 3 Travis Sanheim’s on my team. One thing I did find interesting was the Flyers usage of Sanheim. His offensive zone start percentage was 38% but he only registered 10 points on the year and his according to his advanced metrics he is better in his own zone anyways. He secures possession at a much better rate in his own zone. Perhaps the Flyers would be better off letting him take on more of a defensive role next season.

Lastly, there are a handful of players who had solid seasons but did not get a full section to themselves. Shayne Gostisbehere and his 52 assists did not go unnoticed as he continues to be one of the best powerplay defenseman in the game. Forward Michael Raffl was a solid two way forward who was able to eat some minutes against top competition. The mix of youth and veteran players makes the Flyers look like a team that can contend soon if they are able to work out some other minor (and not so minor) issues.

Disappointments

The team lost ten games in a row, surely there must be some disappointments. But I am of the belief that the streak was an anomaly and something like that will not happen in the NHL again anytime soon.

The most obvious disappointment is the goalie situation. There must be a saying somewhere in hockey that goes something like this, “if you have three goalies it really means you don’t have one.” Brian Elliott, Petr Mrazek and Michal Neuvirth each played more than 800 minutes this season. Of course, injuries played a role, but a look at the stats shows that none of the goalies were able to claim the net when given the chance. Petr Mrazek was the weakest of the three, Elliott and Neuvirth had nearly identical statistics but frankly neither of the two were played well enough, consistently enough, to grab a stranglehold on the number one job. With both players still on the roster next season the same battle figures to take place in 2019.

Lastly two older forwards did not play the role they were expected to play. Dale Weise is an interesting case, he has bounced around quite a bit recently but there always are teams ready to sign or trade for him. This year his season was shortened by injury but when he was on the ice he was ineffective to say the least. His Corsi was 44% which is very low, even for a defensive minded forward. He was a solid penalty killer, but his defensive play did not translate well to 5v5. The bottom six forward is changing. The players now must be able to possesses the puck and chip in offensively. An exercise I like to do is ask myself, where would this player play on one of the best teams in the league? In this case I do not think there would be a spot in the lineup for Weise on some of the league’s best teams.

Lastly, assistant captain Valtteri Filppula was on a contract that his performance was not able to meet. This must be taken with a grain of salt because the contract was signed in 2013 so the team had to see this decline coming as he aged. However, he did count $5M against the cap this year and had awful possession numbers. His individual defensive metrics are impressive but a close look at the numbers when measured in per 20 shows that he was not quite the defensive forward that some of his supporters might say he is. With that being said, he provided leadership and killed plenty of penalties, maybe he is the type of player that you have to be in the locker room day in and day out to fully appreciate what he brings to the team.

Offseason Plan

Up front the Flyers only have three free agent forwards. One is Filppula, who I would let walk. The other two are Taylor Leier and Matt Read. Leier is an RFA which means the team does not have much to worry about. Matt Read is an interesting case. He looks to be a player who could fill the Filppula role very well. He had very similar defensive numbers but was not facing the same level of competition. However, his younger age and cheaper cost (I guess he will earn $1.5M-$2M) makes him a more desirable option.

The team is in a similar boat on the defensive end. Robert Hagg is an RFA, Johnny Oduya is a 36-year-old UFA who will be let go and Brandon Manning is a 26-year-old defenseman who can be brought back with a $2.5M-$3M cap hit if the team chooses to do so.

The team is sitting pretty, as it will head into the offseason with $17M in cap space. However, that does not mean they can just go spend like crazy on July 1^st. After the upcoming season Konecny and Provorov will be restricted free agents. Fast forward to that point and that figures to be $10M+ to sign them. The number would be even larger if they opted for long term deals right away. Wayne Simmonds will be up, Michael Raffl will be up, Nolan Patrick will be one year closer to RFA status. Both goaltenders will be UFAs, that could turn out being a blessing but regardless the team will have to sign a goaltender. If Carter Hart is not ready the team will have to sign two.

If I were the GM of the Flyers I would get my feet wet in the free agent pool, but I would not do anything too crazy. The team is solid as is, sure another defenseman would help the cause but signing the best free agent defenseman to a monster deal could handcuff the team moving forward. It may seem strange to look at the Flyers as a team with tons of cap space and picks but if the team manages these next two seasons right they could be set up to let Giroux and their older players end their career with a few deep playoff runs.

Please be sure to check in again tomorrow as we take an in-depth look at the Los Angeles Kings. If you enjoyed this review, please follow us on Twitter, @afpanalytics, and share it with your friends!

Stats have been pulled from NaturalStatTrick.com and Corsica.hockey. Salary info from Capfriendly.com

JUSTIN WHITE is an intern AFP Analytics. Justin is a graduate of St. John Fisher College where he earned his degree in Sport Management and Statistics. He has worked with the Rochester Americans and members of their coaching staff on various analytics and statistics-based projects.

The Columbus Blue Jackets are an interesting case study in how a team can change a member or two of its “core” and still be successful. The team followed up a successful 2016 campaign with another playoff appearance in 2017. This year the team had to be hopeful to advance past the first round, especially after taking two games to zero lead against the Capitals. However, the team fell short of advancing and will have to answer some tough questions this offseason.

Bright Spots

The Artemi Panarin trade is looking more and more like highway robbery. The Blue Jackets got a top offensive talent and Panarin showed no signs of slowing down in 2017. He is one of the most exciting players to watch with the puck on his stick and his advanced statistics support the eye test. His offensive zone play is nothing short of spectacular, he is great on the rush and off the cycle. All his pass rates are among the best in the league, he averages almost two passes to the slot per twenty minutes and his success rate is 45.2%. The number may not seem impressive at first look but once you think about the emphasis that is placed on defending the slot the number quickly becomes more impressive. Panarin’s skating and playmaking is where he truly excels. He has 6.13 controlled zone entries per twenty minutes and 31.7% of his offensive zone entries result in a scoring chance for the Jackets. There is not much to say about Panarin that has not already been said, he is a special talent and the Blue Jackets are fortunate to have a player like him.

Another young player who took a huge step forward this season in Columbus was Pierre-luc Dubois. The former number three overall selection had a fantastic season. The Blue Jackets are a good possession team and Dubois was no different. He has a Corsi for percentage of 55.4%, not too bad for a 19-year-old. He is a great passer and playmaker off the cycle, his pass to the slot success rate (45.8%) was even better than Panarin’s. One area of his game that could be improved is his physical play, his recovery rates are not on par with other forwards who scored like he did, but that can easily be written off because of his age and the fact that he may not be done developing physically. With that being said, he was responsible in his own end which is a great sign for such a young player. He blocked 5.14 passes per 20 minutes and denied more than half of the controlled entries against him.

The last young forward worth mentioning is Oliver Bjorkstrand. While he may not the media love that some of his teammates get the 23-year-old was a key contributor to the Blue Jackets success. He excelled on the forecheck and the cycle. He made more than 7 north/south cycle passes per twenty minutes and received nearly 10 passes in the offensive zone per twenty minutes as well. The Bjorkstrand line figured to be a key contributor to the Blue Jackets 9^th ranked Corsi for % (51.49%).

Now let’s shift the focus to the back end, the Jackets have two young defensemen that played well and played big minutes. Seth Jones and Zach Werenski are among the best young players in the league and should be a staple on the Jackets blue line for years to come. Jones is only 23 years old and was in the Norris trophy discussion this season, and his numbers illustrate why. His stretch and outlet pass rates are both close to 70% success which is fantastic and allows players like Panarin to excel off the rush. Jones is a point producer on the powerplay and is responsible defensively as well. In other words, he is the prototype defenseman that can play in all situations and is great with the puck. Werenski is not as strong defensively but the Blue Jackets did an excellent job starting him in the offensive zone where he would be able to succeed. He also saw plenty of powerplay time and has an elite shot that is a weapon from the point and on the off wing. Shot success rate is a measure that determines what percent of a players shot attempts result in a scoring chance. Werenski had a shooting success rate of 49%, a substantial number for a defenseman. This means that nearly half of his shots get to the net and create scoring opportunities for the Blue Jackets.

Lastly, Sergei Bobrovsky deserves to be mentioned after another strong season. His expected even strength goals allowed was 2.61 goals per game. His actual measure was 1.99, this means he was allowing .62 less goals per game than he was expected to allow based on quality of chances and volume of shots. In other words, he had a great season. He was not one of the best goalies when the team was short handed but his 5v5 play was so great he was able to keep the Jackets in almost every game and belongs in the conversation when discussing who is the best goalie in the game.

Major Disappointments

It might not be fair to list Brandon Dubinsky as a disappointment because he is asked to paly a specific role and he does a respectable job in his role. He is a defensive minded forward who plays tough minutes against the opponents’ best players. This could explain why his Corsi% was 46.9%, one of the worst on the team. Unfortunately, $5.8M for 6 goals and 10 assists in 62 games is simply not a smart investment. The Blue Jackets could find a player for $1M or $2M who could play a similar role. Boone Jenner is another player who fits this bill, but he is on a much more manageable contract. The Blue Jackets could have been expecting Jenner to take his game to the next level, but it looks like he has already peaked.

Another player that must be listed here is Josh Anderson, he is not listed here because of his production. Instead he is listed here because of what could have been. The Blue Jackets left both Anderson and William Karlsson unprotected in the expansion draft and the Jackets made a deal with Vegas to incentivize the Golden Knights to take Karlsson instead of Anderson. Of course, hindsight is 20/20 but even half of Karlsson’s production would have looked better than the 19 goals and 12 assists that Anderson produced.

The Blue Jackets did have players who failed to meet expectations on the ice in 2017. Jack Johnson only produced 10 points and had a 47% corsi for. Of course, his offensive zone start percentage of 30% is much lower than Jones or Werenski but his defensive statistics were not very impressive. He only blocked 4.81 passes per twenty minutes and was able to deny just 43.6% of zone entries. I would expect a player who is thought to be a shutdown defenseman to have much better defensive based statistics.

Some of these disappointments may seem nitpicky, because the Blue Jackets did have a great season, but every team has areas that they can improve, and the three players specifically mentioned above are players who the Blue Jackets may have expected more from in 2017.

Offseason Plans

This is where things start to get interesting in Columbus. The Blue Jackets have 11 pending free agents and will enter the offseason with only $13M or so in cap space. The team figures to let players like Thomas Vanek, Mark Letestu and maybe even Jack Johnson walk. The tough decisions come with players like Boone Jenner and Matt Calvert. Jenner is 24 and made $2.9M in 2017 and Calvert is 28 and had a $2.2M cap hit this past season. These two players will not take a pay cut, so it will be interesting to see what the team decides to do. I think I would try to resign both, if you dive into the free agent pool you are going to see players who are comparable to Calvert and Jenner. In the case of the Blue Jackets the team would be wise to try to bring back both players because they are familiar with John Tortorella and his style of coaching. Oliver Bjorkstrand is another one of those players that could be signed in the $2M-$3M dollar range, and I am high on him so the longer the term the better.

The real cap issues are going to come after this upcoming season. The team will have to sign both Panarin and Werenski, so any moves the team makes this offseason should be made with next offseason in mind. If the players are willing Columbus should try to sign one of the players now. They are both proven talents and locking them up sooner rather than later would only make things easier on the front office.

Now let’s wrap up by talking about the elephant in the room. Sergei Bobrovsky only has one year left on his current deal. He is a $7.425M cap hit and he will not be taking a pay cut when he signs his next deal. This may seem like a hot take but if I were the GM of the Blue Jackets I would not be the team to give him that contract. It is not a slight on Bobrovsky, he is a great goaltender it is simply a measure of value. The Blue Jackets look like they are built to be competitive for a long time and they will need the cap flexibility to move pieces in and out of their lineup (ala Penguins). Signing Bobrovsky to a Carey Price like deal would tie up the Blue Jackets and would make a mess of their salary cap. If the team has an additional $5M dollars to spend on a player to bolster their roster the team would still be able to compete with a goaltender who makes $5M instead of $10M.

In conclusion, the Blue Jackets could head in any direction they choose. Perhaps management is not satisfied with the first round exit this season and will look to move on from most of their pending free agents. I would keep the team in tact and wait until next offseason to make any sweeping changes, especially with the contracts that will have to be signed or could come off the books in 2019.

Please be sure to check in again tomorrow as we take an in-depth look at the Philadelphia Flyers. If you enjoyed this review, please follow us on Twitter, @afpanalytics, and share it with your friends!

Stats have been pulled from NaturalStatTrick.com and Corsica.hockey. Salary info from Capfriendly.com

JUSTIN WHITE is an intern AFP Analytics. Justin is a graduate of St. John Fisher College where he earned his degree in Sport Management and Statistics. He has worked with the Rochester Americans and members of their coaching staff on various analytics and statistics based projects.