23 Jun
Quick Picks: Under the Radar 2023 UFAs
With NHL free agency getting closer and closer (July 1st), I’m continuing to look over the free agent class and evaluate which players I believe would be good targets. Today’s article is focused on players who I believe could provide good value on the contract we have projected for them. The intention here is to identify a center, two wingers, two defensemen, and one goalie. A starting lineup of some of my favorite value targets on the unrestricted free agent (UFA) market. Both player performance, as well as our AFPAnalytics contract projections, are factored into this process.
Center – Evan Rodrigues (COL) – Projected 3 years, $3,708,278.95AAV
Rodrigues is an ideal third line forward who certainly has the ability to move up in the lineup if needed. This contract doesn’t break the bank for someone who could be a second line center in a pinch. Playoff teams need players like this.
Left Wing – Jonathan Drouin (MTL) – Projected 1 year, $1,978,115.00AAV
If a team is looking for someone on a cheap deal who has the potential to outperform his salary, Drouin could be that guy. A playmaker who needs to find a comfortable situation, he may be able to perform on a good top six line and reset his value.
Right Wing – Tomas Tatar (NJD) – Projected 3 years, $3,368,330,36AAV
Tatar has been one of my favorite middle six wingers in the NHL for the past few seasons. He has some very solid underlying numbers that suggest he would outperform this contract.
Left Defense – Calvin de Haan (CAR) – Projected 2 years, $1,626,108.97AAV
Need a bottom pair defenseman? Calvin de Haan has quietly become a very solid one for the Carolina Hurricanes. This contract is about what a team should be looking to pay a bottom pair defenseman, but picking de Haan would be choosing wisely. He is solid, and others at or above this rate of pay might not actually be as good. A sneaky depth addition.
Right Defense – Connor Clifton (BOS) – Projected 2 years, $1,743,647.00AAV
To continue with possible sneaky depth additions, Connor Clifton has become a real solid presence on the bottom pair in Boston. I’d be curious to see if he goes to a non-contender in an attempt to get more minutes to build on his value. Regardless, like de Haan, he should be able to provide great play on a bottom pair.
Goalie – Anthony Stolarz (ANA) – Projected 2 years, $1,566,763.64AAV
Stolarz is unlikely to be a goalie who handles more than a backup’s share of games. Having said that, he has quietly been a very solid number two option behind John Gibson in Anaheim. While this season was slightly down for him, he had an awful defense in front of him. If I’m a team with a clear starter but am in need of someone that can be relied on for 20-25ish games, Stolarz is my pick from this free agent class.
Honorable mentions:
C Pius Suter (DET) – Projected 2 years, $1,853,271.79AAV
LW Danton Heinen (PIT) – Projected 3 years, $2,452,263.16AAV
RW Craig Smith (WSH) – Projected 1 year, $1,278,904.05AAV
LD Erik Gustafsson (TOR) – Projected 3 years, $3,414,520.73AAV
RD Kevin Shattenkirk (ANA) – Projected 2 years, $3,023,627.78AAV
G Alex Nedeljkovic (DET) – Projected 1 year, $1,245,402.50AAV
Featured Image provided by Getty Images
23 Jul
Who Will Surprise During the 2019-2020 Season? – Part 2: Eastern Conference
Each year, there are players throughout the NHL who seem to come out of nowhere. Jonathan Marchessault is a recent case of a player taking an unexpected step towards stardom. For the upcoming 2019-2020 season, I have taken an in-depth look throughout the league and have identified nine players in each conference who are most likely to be the next Marchessault. Each conference’s group of nine players has been broken into three groups based on their likeliness to exceed expectations next season: probable, coin flip, and possible. These groups represent what I believe to be the likelihood that each player breaks out like Marchessault. I did not want to have this centered on one team more than another, so I avoided picking multiple players from the same team.
This process is not as simple as looking at how many points someone has scored. While that may have some importance, there are many other underlying statistics that can provide a hint as to who may be able to take the next step forward. Other than total points (goals and assists) and TOI (time on ice), I will look specifically at 5v5 statistics (provided by naturalstattrick.com) for each player, as that helps take away any influence by “unfair” situations like the power play and penalty kill. Those situations tend to inflate the numbers of players. Looking at 5v5 ultimately tells us how well the player performed in the basic game of hockey. The analysis of each chosen player will involve the consideration of these statistics, as well as the overall situation and circumstance that they find themselves in. The age listed with the player is the age that they will play the majority of the 2019-2020 season as. I have tried to look at players who were not high draft picks as these players are expected to take a step forward. Instead, the goal was to identify some under the radar players.
Probable:
Marcus Pettersson, 23, LD, Pittsburgh Penguins
Marcus Pettersson is a player who might be a stretch for this list because it may not be such a huge surprise if he takes the next step. However, his small sample size in the NHL lands him on this list. A former second-round pick of the Anaheim Ducks, the left-handed defenseman did not impress enough in Anaheim to earn a spot on their roster for the long-term. Just this past season, the Ducks traded him to the Penguins after just 27 games in exchange for
Moving into the 2019-2020 season, Pettersson should have an opportunity to continue his success with Pittsburgh. The Penguins have Kris Letang, Justin Schultz, and Brian Dumoulin locked into their top two defensive pairs. That leaves one spot for the likes of Pettersson, Jack Johnson, and Erik Gudbranson. Assuming Pettersson can return this upcoming season at the same level he left off on, He should have no problem securing the last spot in the top four. Currently, he is an unsigned RFA and the Penguins are just about out of cap space. This is certainly a situation to watch. Assuming the contract situation gets resolved, Pettersson is in a prime spot to have a great season on the Penguins’ blueline.
Christian Wolanin, 24, LD, Ottawa Senators
Wolanin, a fourth round pick in 2015, had a great first full pro year this past season. He did very well in the AHL, producing 31 points (seven goals, 24 assists) in 40 games as a defenseman. That play earned him a call up to the Senators. He saw 30 NHL games, producing four goals and eight assists for 12 points. His underlying numbers impressed too. He had a CF% of 45.92% and while that is not good, his relative CF% was 2.50%. He was playing for the worst team in hockey. He made the team better in relation to his teammates. After being a very productive AHL defenseman and showing he belonged in the NHL on the Senators in just one professional season, Wolanin is in a prime position to take a step forward.
For a young defenseman looking for an opportunity at a bigger role, there may not be a better team to be on than the Senators. While you might struggle to win some games, there are a lot of open spots on defense. Thomas Chabot is locked into the top pair, while Dylan DeMelo most likely has a top four spot. That leaves two top four spots up for grabs. Christian Jaros, another young defenseman, could definitely be given a shot. There are also veterans Nikita Zaitsev, Ron Hainsey, and Mark Borowiecki who are looking for that type of role. However, none of these defenseman are sure locks for a top four spot. Ideally, they would all be playing bottom pair minutes. If Wolanin can continue at the level he is at, or take another step forward, he could have a 2019-2020 season that puts him on the map for a long-term spot on Ottawa’s blueline.
Oskar Lindblom, 23, LW, Philadelphia Flyers
The 2015 fifth-round pick had his first North American hockey season in 2017-2018. He spent most of the year in the AHL, producing 16 goals and 18 assists for 34 points in 54 games. That same season, he did see 23 games in the NHL. However, he was not as productive. He had two goals and four assists for six points in 23 games. This first season was enough for the Flyers to give Lindblom a shot the following season. In the 2018-2019 season, Linblom played in 81 games for the team. He did fairly well in a third-line role, posting 17 goals and 16 assists for 33 points. Not only was he productive in his role from a scoring standpoint, but his underlying numbers were also good. He had a 50.99% CF%. His relative CF% was 3.40%. Lindblom brought a good two-way game to the Flyers third line. His presence on the ice made the Flyers a better team. Entering the upcoming season at just age 23, Lindblom is in a prime position to take another step and provide the type of value that a top six winger would.
The situation in Philadelphia may lead to Lindblom being stuck on the third line for another season. Down the middle, the Flyers will most likely have Sean Couturier, Kevin Hayes, Nolan Patrick, and Scott Laughton. There are four spots on the wing in the top six. Those spots will most likely belong to Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek, James van
Coin Flip:
Denis Malgin, 22, C/RW, Florida Panthers
Malgin has played in three seasons for the Panthers. However, he has played just over half of the games in each season. The past two seasons may be the most important for the progression of Malgin’s career. In the 2017-2018 season, Malgin played in 51 games and had 11 goals and 11 assists for 22 points. He had a CF% of 50.94%, with a relative CF% of 2.02%. The next season, in 50 games, Malgin produced only seven goals and nine assists for 16 points. While his production fell slightly, his underlying statistics were very similar. He had a CF% of 51.40% and a relative CF% of 2.45%. Each season, he ultimately was a serviceable player on the ice, and he made his team better when he was playing. The decline in points wasn’t huge, so it shouldn’t cause too much concern for the team when evaluating what type of player Malgin can be.
For the Panthers, two forwards may be going back and forth between the second and third line: Brett Connolly and Frank Vatrano. However, if Malgin can take another step and start producing points more regularly, he could push for that last spot on the second line. The attention will most likely be on those other two forwards, but the fact that there will be some competition there means there is an opportunity. At worst, Malgin should be battling for a third-line role, which would be an improvement on his fourth-line role this past season. There should be a spot on the wing and at
Jesper Bratt, 21, LW/RW, New Jersey Devils
Bratt, a sixth-round pick in 2016, burst onto the scene during the 2017-2018 season that saw the Devils all of a sudden look like a very impressive team. The rookie Bratt contributed to that, as he produced 13 goals and 22 assists for 35 points in 74 games. However, Bratt seemed to have a bit of a sophomore slump in the 2018-2019 season. He only made it into 51 games due to injury. In those games, he was able to get close to his previous point total. He had eight goals and 25 assists for 33 points. His CF%
Bratt is in a good situation in New Jersey. Taylor Hall, Kyle Palmieri, and Wayne Simmonds will most likely take three of the four wing spots in the top six. That leaves one spot open and there is not a clear option to take it. Along with Bratt, the Devils will have Miles Wood and Blake Coleman fighting for that spot. If Bratt can return to the form he s, he should be able to secure that last spot on the wing in the top six. The opportunity is certainly there for Jesper Bratt to take another step and breakout this upcoming season.
Peter Cehlarik, 24, LW/RW, Boston Bruins
A bit of time has gone by since Cehlarik was a third-round draft pick in the 2013 draft. Throughout the past three seasons, he has become a decent AHL forward. He had 38 points (20 goals, 18 assists) in 49 games during the 2016-2017 season, while the 2017-2018 season saw him produce 23 points (11 goals, 12 assists) in 35 games. in the 2018-2019 season, he had 38 points (12 goals, 26 assists) in 53 games. He also saw his longest NHL look this past season. In 20 games as a fourth-line forward, he had four goals and two assists for six points. The advanced statistics on Cehlarik paint a bright picture in those 20 games. His CF% was 59.50%. While that could be attributed to the fact that he was on a great Bruins team, his relative CF% of 6.69% shows that he made the team better when he was on the ice. While it is a small sample size, it is the type of production that you want to see from young forwards when
While Cehlarik showed he may be ready for a shot at an NHL role, the team has quite the forward group. There are 13 other NHL forwards who Cehlarik will have to fight with for a roster spot, and that doesn’t consider any prospects. While Cehlarik may be able to beat out players like Par Lindholm and Chris Wagner, it may be tough to find anything more than a fourth-line role. While he may be ready to make the jump to the NHL and excel, the roster logjam at the forward position hinders the likelihood that it actually happens. If he were available in a trade, he could be a
Possible:
Evan Rodrigues, 26, C/LW, Buffalo Sabres
The Sabres should be loving that Rodrigues has been the type of player he is considering he was an undrafted free agent. Other than Jeff Skinner, Jack Eichel, and Sam Reinhart, there is a case to be made that Rodrigues is the fourth-best forward on the Sabres’ roster. This past season, he saw time from the fourth-line to the first-line and he played well in whatever role he was asked to play. While he had only nine goals and 20 assists in 74 games, it is important to note that he was often playing with teammates like Vladimir Sobotka, Johan Larsson, and Zemgus Girgensons. None of those players had a positive impact offensively on the team. Rodrigues has good underlying numbers. His CF% was 51.59%, and he posted a relative CF% of 2.26%. The team was better when he was on the ice. The ability is there for Rodrigues to take another step and become a strong two-way player who can produce around 40 points. He has proven he has the ability to fill in on the top forward lines. He is anything but a liability on the ice.
Rodrigues has been a good fill-in option in the top six. While it’s possible he takes another step, he is most likely that player who is a great third-liner who doesn’t look out of place on higher lines. Skinner, Eichel, Reinhart, and Marcus Johansson are locked into the top six. Chances are, players like Victor Olofsson, Conor Sheary, Jimmy Vesey, and Casey Mittelstadt will be given a shot in higher roles before Rodrigues. While Rodrigues should improve, it is likely he continues to be the good
Kenny Agostino, 27, LW, Toronto Maple Leafs
Agostino was a fifth-round pick in 2010. He did not get into the NHL until the 2013-2014 season. Agostino has consistently been a dominant presence in the AHL, with three seasons in a row of at least 50 points. In the 2016-2017 AHL season, he had 83 points in 65 games. He didn’t see more than a handful of games in the NHL until this past 2018-2019 season. He played for both the Montreal Canadiens and New Jersey Devils. With the Canadiens, he had two goals and nine assists for 11 points in 36 games. He had a CF% of 56.70% and a relative CF% of 3.44%. He was then claimed on waivers by the Devils, where he went on to have four goals and nine assists for 13 points in 27 games. While his CF% with the Devils was less at 48.86%, his relative CF% was greater at 5.25%. Agostino made both teams better when he was on the ice compared to his teammates.
Agostino signed as a UFA (unrestricted free agent) with the Toronto Maple Leafs. Toronto is close to the cap, so signing Agostino to a deal at the veteran minimum was appealing to them. For Agostino, there is an opportunity to earn a nice NHL role. The top-six will be filled, but the third line is not completely set. Alexander Kerfoot will be the center, but the two wing spots could be up for grabs. Agostino will have to battle with Zach Hyman (who is likely to start the season on injured reversed), Trevor Moore, and Nicolas Petan. While Agostino isn’t guaranteed to beat them out, it wouldn’t be crazy to see. Agostino having a consistent third-line role will be the best role he has been in. While his recent success and the Leafs’ logjam may point to a chance that he breaks out, he is also already 27 years old. Taking the next step at age 27 does not happen often, but Agostino couldn’t have asked for a better situation to make the unlikely happen.
Dean Kukan, 26, LD, Columbus Blue Jackets
Kukan was signed as an undrafted free agent out of the SHL. He never really saw NHL time until the end of the 2018-2019 season and into the playoffs. In a small sample size, he had five assists in 25 games during the season. His underlying numbers, albeit in a small sample, were good during those 25 games. He had a CF% of 53.24% and a relative CF% of 1.53%. Kukan’s most common defensive partner was Scott Harrington, showing that he played in a bottom pair role. What is impressive is the impact Kukan had on Harrington. With Kukan, Harrington had a CF% of 53.29%. Without Kukan, Harrington’s CF% dropped to 37.63%. Kukan made that defensive pairing formidable. Moving forward, Kukan could take a step and look to have a bigger, more consistent role on the Blue Jackets.
An opportunity could be there for Kukan. Columbus had Seth Jones, Zach Werenski, and Ryan Murray locked into the top four. David Savard was the other top-four defenseman, but he has started to fall off. Kukan needs to beat out Savard, Markus Nutivaara (who didn’t have a great season) and Scott Harrington for the last top-four spot. It is clear based off the statistics that Kukan has the edge over Harrington. The opportunity should be there for Kukan to earn second-pair minutes. If he can continue to play
Conclusion
Ultimately, it is very possible that none of these players make it to the level that Jonathan Marchessault did. However, when looking at each team in the east, these nine players were determined as most likely to do so. While some may be more likely than others, these nine are the players to watch closely throughout the 2019-2020 season. There may have been some players excluded simply because of them playing on a team where another player was deemed to be more likely to take a step.
What are your thoughts? Tweet us, @afpanalytics, to share.
Image courtesy of Jay LaPrete / Associated Press
James Finch is an analyst at AFP Analytics. James graduated from St. John Fisher College in 2019 with a bachelor’s degree in Sport Management with a minor in Economics. His background with sports and economics have brought about an interest in gaining experience and finding his niche within the sport analytics field.
22 Jul
Who Will Surprise During the 2019-2020 NHL Season? – Part 1: Western Conference
Each year, there are players throughout the NHL who seem to come out of nowhere. Jonathan Marchessault is a recent case of a player taking an unexpected step towards stardom. For the upcoming 2019-2020 season, I have taken an in-depth look throughout the league and have identified nine players in each conference who are most likely to be the next Marchessault. Each conference’s group of nine players has been broken into three groups based on their likeliness to exceed expectations next season: probable, coin flip, and possible. These groups represent what I believe to be the likelihood that each player breaks out like Marchessault. I did not want to have this centered on one team more than another, so I avoided picking multiple players from the same team.
This process is not as simple as looking at how many points someone has scored. While that may have some importance, there are many other underlying statistics that can provide a hint as to who may be able to take the next step forward. Other than total points (goals and assists) and TOI (time on ice), I will look specifically at 5v5 statistics (provided by naturalstattrick.com) for each player, as that helps take away any influence by “unfair” situations like the power play and penalty kill. Those situations tend to inflate the numbers of players. Looking at 5v5 ultimately tells us how well the player performed in the basic game of hockey. The analysis of each chosen player will involve the consideration of these statistics, as well as the overall situation and circumstance that they find themselves in. The age listed with the player is the age that they will play the majority of the 2019-2020 season as. I have tried to look at players who were not high draft picks as these players are expected to take a step forward. Instead, the goal was to identify some under the radar players.
Probable:
Ondrej Kase, 24, RW, Anaheim Ducks
The Anaheim Ducks are in the middle of a rebuilding (or retooling) phase. They weren’t too good last season and
There is space on the team for Kase to have the opportunity to play top-six minutes. Ryan Getzlaf, Adam Henrique, Rickard Rakell, and Jakob Silfverberg are the only forwards on the Ducks’ roster who seem to be clear locks for a top-six role. That would leave two spots available for others and Kase seems to be at the top of the list to fill one of those roles. Kase might be one of the easiest picks here, as both his statistics and his situation point to him being a top-six forward in the near future.
Conor Garland, 23, LW/RW, Arizona Coyotes
As a fifth-round draft
The opportunity is there for Garland to find a spot within the top six of the Arizona Coyotes. Phil Kessel, Derek Stepan, Nick Schmaltz, Christian Dvorak, and Clayton Keller should all have a top six role for the team. That leaves one spot for the likes of Conor Garland, Vinnie Hinostroza, and Christian Fischer. Based on the recent statistics, the battle will most likely be between Garland and Hinostroza. While there will be competition, there is an opportunity for Garland to land a bigger role this upcoming season. His statistics show that he may be ready for it.
Dylan Sikura, 24, LW/C/RW, Chicago Blackhawks
Sikura, a 24-
When looking at Sikura’s statistics, it is reasonable to say that he could turn into a quality two-way forward capable of playing within the top six. There will be competition in Chicago amongst the forwards for significant ice time. Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, Brandon Saad, Dylan Strome, and Alex DeBrincat are all locks for a top-six role. That leaves one spot up for grabs for players like Sikura, Drake Caggiula, David Kampf, Brendan Perlini, Alex Nylander, and Andrew Shaw to battle for. While it will be quite the competition, Sikura could either win the spot or find a role on the third line. Either way, Sikura showed in a quiet first season that he may be able to take a step forward and add more production if he finds himself in a bigger role.
Coin Flip:
Nikolay Goldobin, 24, LW, Vancouver Canucks
This 2014 first round pick didn’t last long with the team that drafted him. The San Jose Sharks traded him to the Vancouver Canucks during the 2016-2017 season in a deal for Jannik Hansen. During that season, he had good AHL numbers. Goldobin played in a total of 49 games and produced 19 goals and 26 assists for a total of 45 points. In 2017-2018, he dominated the AHL with 31 points in 30 games. He also played 38 NHL games with Vancouver, scoring eight goals and six assists for 14 points. The 2018-2019 season was the first season that Goldobin spent the entire year in the NHL. In 63 games, he scored seven goals and 20 assists for 27 points. His CF% was 49.24%, which is slightly lower than you’d want it to be. However, his CF% relative was 1.76%, showing that he made the team better when he was on the ice. Goldobin averaged 14:59 TOI this past season. He played the most with Elias Pettersson and Brock Boeser. While Goldobin put up good underlying numbers with the top players, his production just was not there. It is very possible that Goldobin is what he is at this point. It is also very possible that one more season with these top players will allow for Goldobin to take the next step and produce like a top six forward should.
There is space in the top six for Goldobin. Vancouver can currently expect Elias Pettersson, Bo Horvat, Brock Boeser, and J.T. Miller to have a
Michael Amadio, 23, C/RW, Los Angeles Kings
Amadio, a 23 year old forward, is not a flashy player who will surprise with one elite skill. However, he has been productive in the roles he has been given so far in his career. The former third=round pick had a strong 2016-2017 AHL season in his first year as a pro, producing 16 goals and 25 assists for a total of 41 points in 68 games. In 2017-2018, he was more productive with 11 goals and 24 assists for a total of 35 points in 32 AHL games. He also saw 37 games in the NHL, but only had four goals and four assists for a total of eight points in 37 games. 2018-2019 was somewhat similar for Amadio. In 28 AHL games, he had eight goals and 18 assists for 26 points. Amadio also played 43 NHL games, with six goals and seven assists for 13 points. While the production was slightly better, it still wasn’t necessarily impressive. However, Amadio was playing in a
While Amadio hasn’t shown a great goal scoring or playmaking ability, it is reasonable to think that he could become a quality two-way player. If given a bigger role, his offensive skills are strong enough that he could produce more points while still providing his quality two-way game. The Kings have Anze Kopitar, Alex Iafallo, Adrian Kempe, Tyler Toffoli, Jeff Carter, Dustin Brown
Lukas Radil, 29, LW, San Jose Sharks
Lukas Radil first played in the NHL during this past 2018-2019 season at the age of 28. He signed as an undrafted free agent after the 2017-2018 KHL season that saw him score 16 goals and 22 assists for 38 points in 51 games. During the 2018-2019 season, Radil produced well in the AHL in a small sample size. In 15 games, he had four goals and seven assists for 11 points. He saw a little more time in the NHL, producing seven goals and four assists for 11 points in 36 games. His role was minimal, as he had an average TOI of 10:41 per game. However, in that small sample size, he produced a CF% of 57.68%, with a relative CF% of 1.82%. The two forwards that he saw the most time with were Barlcay Goodrow and Melker Karlsson. Based off his average time on ice and his most common line mates, it is obvious that Radil did not play in much more than a bottom six role.
Based on his history, Radil seems as if he could be pretty productive if given more minutes. Going into his age 29 season, it is likely that Radil is what he is at this point. Seeing if he can handle bigger minutes may be a fairly quick experiment for the team, showing them he either can or cannot handle more ice time. At the least, he can be a quality bottom-six forward. Currently, the Sharks have Logan Couture, Evander Kane, Timo Meier, Tomas Hertl, and Kevin Labanc as locks for their top six. While it is very likely that Joe Thornton returns with Patrick Marleau in tow, that would still leave two spots open in the top nine. With very little competition from any other skilled players for those open spots,
Possible:
Austin Czarnik, 26, LW/RW, Calgary Flames
As an undrafted free agent out of Miami University (Ohio), it has never been expected that Czarnik would become much more than a bottom-six forward. He certainly seemed capable of that when in the Boston Bruins organization. In his first full AHL season, Czarnik had 20 goals and 41 assists for 61 points in 68 games. Then, in 2016-2017, he played 22 AHL games that saw him score six goals and 17 assists for 23 points. That same season, he played in 49 NHL games, scoring five goals and eight assists for 13 points. In 2017-2018, he played 64 AHL games, producing 25 goals and 44 assists for 69 points in 64 games. He only played 10 NHL games, posting four assists. Before the 2018-2019 season, he became a group six unrestricted free agent and signed with the Calgary Flames.
In 54 games this past season, he had six goals and 12 assists for 18 points in 54 games. He averaged an 11:20 TOI per game, which is a fourth line role. Czarnik had a CF% of 54.92% and a relative CF% of -0.55%. While the relative statistic is not great, Czarnik was on a very good Flames team, so it is reasonable to see that the fourth line player was replaceable compared to others on his team. Czarnik played the most with Mark Jankowski and Sam Bennett. Both players were better with Czarnik than without. Jankowski had a CF% of 57.89% with Czarnik and a CF% of 50.83% without him. Sam Bennett had a CF% of 62.44% with Czarnik and a CF% of 54.11% without him. Czarnik made his fourth line teammates better players. Based on his past as a highly productive AHL forward and a good fourth line NHL forward, it would be reasonable to test out Czarnik in a bigger role.
While statistics may point to Czarnik being a possible candidate for a bigger role, his actual situation with his current team may temper those thoughts. There are eight other forwards (Matthew Tkachuk, Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan, Mikael Backlund, Elias Lindholm, Michael Frolik, Mark Jankowski, and Andrew Mangiapane) who most likely have a spot locked in above Czarnik. That would leave one spot left in the top-nine on the third-line. For that spot, Czarnik would have to battle with newly acquired Milan Lucic, Derek Ryan, Alan Quine, Sam Bennett, and Dillon Dube. Czarnik could very well earn that role. However, both the crowded forward group and his age could play a role in how the team decides to move forward with him. At the least, Czarnik should continue contributing as a good fourth-line option.
Brandon Pirri, 28, LW/RW, Vegas Golden Knights
Pirri is a former second-round pick who has shown the ability to score goals. Many teams are constantly looking for goal scorers, making it somewhat odd that Pirri has not really been given a consistent shot at sticking in the NHL. Since the 2011-2012 season, Pirri has been at worst a near point per game player in the AHL. Most seasons in the AHL, he has dominated. This past year, he had 18 goals and 24 assists for 42 points in just 29 AHL games. At worst, Pirri has proven to be an elite AHL player throughout his career. The NHL season that stands out for Pirri is the 2014-2015 season. He was playing for the Florida Panthers that season. In 49 games, he scored 22 goals and two assists for 24 points. The following two seasons, Pirri played 52 games and then 60 games, but was not given a shot as a top-six forward.
As a player with a great goal scoring ability, it is odd that he has not been given a consistent look as a top-six forward. His most recent statistics show that his goal-scoring ability is still there. While we know he dominated in the AHL, his 2018-2019 NHL season saw him play in 31 games and produce 12 goals and six assists for 18 points. He averaged 14:27 TOI, which is a third-line role. Over a full season, his production would have been over 40 points. Pirri is a player that needs to be in the top-six with forwards who can consistently get the puck on his stick. His CF% was 56.69%, while his relative CF% was 3.66%. The Vegas Golden Knights were a better team when Pirri was on the ice in relation to his teammates. On top of that, Pirri has provided quality
The problem here for Pirri is the lack of space in the top six on the Vegas Golden Knights. Mark Stone, Max Pacioretty, Paul Stastny, William Karlsson, Reilly Smith, and Jonathan Marchessault are all destined for the top-six in the upcoming season. To truly breakout, Pirri likely needs to be given enough quality and quantity minutes. With Eakin and Tuch, he will likely get the quality but due to Vegas’s depth at forward, likely won’t get the quantity. In a full season, he may be able to produce 40 points. However, worst-case scenario, he could end up being sent to the AHL if other players win the battle for the roles in the bottom-six. William Carrier, Ryan Reaves, Tomas Nosek, and more will be looking to find their spot in the lineup. The depth that Vegas has, paired with the fact that Pirri is 28 and has yet to see a significant look in the NHL, shows that he may not be given a shot to become the elite goal scorer that his statistics show he could possibly be.
Nathan Beaulieu, 27, LD, Winnipeg Jets
Beaulieu is a former first-round pick of the Montreal Canadiens. After he didn’t quite develop the way they wanted him to, he was shipped off to Buffalo. History repeated itself with Buffalo, as he was traded midway through the 2018-2019 season to the Winnipeg Jets. In 30 games for the Sabres, Beaulieu had three goals and four assists for seven points. For Winnipeg, he played in 18 games and had five assists. For both teams, Beaulieu found himself as a scratched player throughout the season. He never really saw a role much greater than the bottom pair for Buffalo (14:42 average TOI), while he did see some time in a second pair role for Winnipeg (16:51 average TOI). Beaulieu had a CF% of 50.14% and a relative CF% of 4.68% with Buffalo. He then had a CF% of 48.38% and a relative CF% of 1.49% with Winnipeg.
With both teams, Beaulieu proved to be a player that made the team better when he was on the ice in comparison to his teammates. In Buffalo, his most common defensive partner was Casey Nelson, while in Winnipeg it was Jacob Trouba. Nelson is a good bottom pair defenseman, while Trouba has developed into a boarderline top-pair defenseman. Either way, Beaulieu played well with both players. Nelson was better with Beaulieu (57.32 CF%) than without (45.12 CF%). Trouba followed the same pattern, as he was better with Beaulieu (48.35 CF%) than without (44.83%). Beaulieu proved to be capable in multiple roles throughout the season and he made both a bottom pair defenseman and a
Age is a negative for Beaulieu, as someone with his perception (a replaceable bottom pair to
Conclusion
Ultimately, it is very possible that none of these players make it to the level that Jonathan Marchessault did. However, when looking at each team in the west, these nine players were determined as most likely to do so. While some may be more likely than others, these nine are the players to watch closely throughout the 2019-2020 season. There may have been some players excluded simply because of them playing on a team where another player was deemed to be more likely to take a step.
What are your thoughts? Tweet us, @afpanalytics, to share.
Image courtesy of John Locher / Associated Press
James Finch is an analyst at AFP Analytics. James graduated from St. John Fisher College in 2019 with a bachelor’s degree in Sport Management with a minor in Economics. His background with sports and economics have brought about an interest in gaining experience and finding his niche within the
17 Jul
2019 NHL Free Agents: Five Remaining UFAs Who Could Provide Value
After the initial rush of the 2019 free agency period, there are still many players looking for an opportunity with an NHL club. There are some well-known names still currently looking for a new contract, like Jake Gardiner and Joe Thornton. However, we believe that there is value to be found with the players who aren’t as well-known and who may be looking for an opportunity at a larger role. We have identified five players that teams should be targeting that will, worst case scenario, improve the organizations depth. Best case scenario, these players may surprise and play their way into a more significant role on the team.
Safest Bet: Dmitrij Jaskin
After being a second-round pick in 2011, many within the hockey industry thought that Dmitrij Jaskin would become a solid middle
Most Likely to Take the Next Step to the NHL: Rourke Chartier
Rourke Chartier is a 23 year old forward who has hit the UFA (unrestricted free agent) market. Other players at that age have been in this situation before, but the numbers that Chartier has produced make him stand out. Chartier was a very productive WHL player in his junior days. Once he moved to the AHL in the San Jose Sharks organization, his game seemed to translate well. His first AHL season, he played 67 games and produced 35 points. AHL season number two saw him post 21 points in 28 games. This past season in the AHL, he had 18 points in 26 games. These numbers don’t jump off the page, but they are very respectable. Chartier also saw 13 games in the NHL this past season. In these games, he had just one goal. While that is not great, his underlying numbers gave a glimpse of hope. He averaged 9:24 TOI (time on ice), leading us to the conclusion that he was playing in a fourth line role. He produced a CF% of 53.15%. While that is good, his CF% relative was -4.86%, painting a more negative picture. Looking at these numbers, we can draw the conclusion that he may have benefited from playing on a great San Jose team but would not have been one of the better options in comparison to his teammates. However, we believe that based off of his AHL numbers and the fact that he is still young, he has the ability to make the jump to the NHL. A team looking to take a chance on an AHL player who may be able to become an adequate option on an NHL fourth line should be looking at Chartier. He should end up signing for the minimum, so this would be a low-risk option. Worst case scenario, he plays well in the AHL. Ideally, he takes the next step and becomes an option for the NHL roster.
Top Six Fill in: Pontus Aberg
Pontus Aberg is a former top second-round pick of the Nashville Predators. While he looked good for their AHL affiliate, his numbers did not translate well to the NHL. We would like to highlight that in 37 games with Nashville during the 2017-2018 season, he played over 160 minutes with Calle Jarnkrok. Jarnkrok was the Nashville forward that Aberg played the most minutes with. Aberg finished the 2017-2018 season with the Edmonton Oilers after being traded midseason. In 16 games with the Oilers, Aberg had two goals and six assists for a total of eight points. While his CF% was 48.49, his relative CF% was 2.25%, showing that the team was better when he was on the ice. In these 16 games with Edmonton, Aberg played 75 or more minutes with Drake Caggiula, Leon Draisaitl, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.
In the 2018-2019 season, Aberg started off with the Anaheim Ducks after being claimed on waivers. In 37 games with the Ducks, Aberg had 19 points. He produced a CF% of 53.60%, and a relative percentage of 7.73%. Aberg looked great playing with his most common Anaheim forward teammates of Ryan Getzlaf (274:46 TOI), Rickard Rakell (130:01 TOI), and Adam Henrique (129:52 TOI).
Midseason, Anaheim traded Aberg to the Minnesota Wild. With the Wild, Aberg struggled in 22 games. He only produced six points. Aberg’s underlying numbers were not good either. He had a CF% of 46.90%, with a relative CF% of -4.70%. Aberg was not helping the Wild when he was on the ice. He was very replaceable on their team. With Minnesota, the most common forward teammates that Aberg played with were Victor Rask (93:03 TOI) and Zach Parise (82:13 TOI).
The main thing that stands out here is that Aberg provided quality numbers when playing with top players. He has been at his best level of play with Ryan Getzlaf and Leon
Veteran Depth Player: Oscar Lindberg
As a former second-round pick, Lindberg came into the league as someone who projected to be a decent middle-six option within the forward group. That never really happened, as the most points he has ever produced in a single year was 28 in the 2015-2016 season. However, he has established himself as a decent bottom-six option. This past year, his season was split between the Vegas Golden Knights and the Ottawa Senators. With Vegas, Lindberg had four goals and eight assists in 35 games. His CF% was 56.44%, with a relative CF% of 4.21%. With Ottawa, Lindberg produced five goals and three assists in 20 games. His CF% was 44.70, with a relative CF% of 0.18%. His numbers looked really good with Vegas. Once he got to Ottawa, his underlying numbers fell, but he produced at a better rate. However, Lindberg was on a really good Vegas team, playing with other quality bottom-six forwards like Cody Eakin and Ryan Carpenter. In Ottawa, he was still making the team better in relation to other players on his team while playing with fringe NHL players, Magnus Paajarvi and Brian Gibbons. After looking at these statistics, we believe that Lindberg would be a quality veteran player to put into your bottom six. If he has other similar players around him, he will look good. If he plays with players who may fit better in the AHL, he may still have the offensive ability to stay serviceable in his NHL role. Ultimately, Lindberg is a solid veteran option to have on your NHL roster.
Boom/Bust Potential: Stefan Noesen
Stefan Noesen was a first round pick in 2011 for the Ottawa Senators. He first broke into the NHL with the Anaheim Ducks, but over three seasons of very limited time, he found himself in the New Jersey Devils organization via waivers. Noesen has had some problems dealing with injuries in his career, but he was able to put together a 72 game season in 2017-2018 with the Devils. During this season, he had 13 goals and 14 assists for a total of 27 points. His CF% was 51.62% with a relative CF% of 3.23%. This was Noesen’s first season where he came close to playing all of the games. The team would have liked to see him take another step forward in 2018-2019, but the opposite happened. Finding himself on the injured list three times throughout the season, Noesen played only 41 games. In those 41 games, he had only three goals and five assists for a total of eight points. His underlying numbers didn’t help either, as his CF% was 45.65% and his relative CF% was -2.74%. Noesen went from looking like a guy who could become a solid middle six option to a guy who may struggle to find an NHL opportunity. The Devils did not give him a qualifying offer this offseason, making him
Photo by Ethan Miller / Getty Images
James Finch is an analyst at AFP Analytics. James graduated from St. John Fisher College in 2019 with a bachelor’s degree in Sport Management with a minor in Economics. His background with sports and economics have brought about an interest in gaining experience and finding his niche within the sport analytics field.
16 Jul
The Best Options for a Sabres Trade of Rasmus Ristolainen
After looking at the options the Buffalo Sabres have to fix their roster logjam, we have taken the process a step further to identify possible outcomes for our most common prediction: trading Rasmus Ristolainen. It’s arguable that the Sabres have surpluses at both forward and defense but it is undeniable that the team has to do something with their defense. We previously discussed how the team has eleven defensemen and six spots to play them. We concluded that Rasmus Ristolainen was likely the odd man out. We did play out a scenario where he is still on the roster come opening night, but it seems unlikely. Teams around the league have to have come to the same conclusion as we have and are likely checking in with Buffalo to see if they can get their hands on Ristolainen. In this article, we will touch on nine teams that we think could have already checked in on Ristolainen or will if they haven’t already. We have ordered the teams based on the likeliness of a trade between Buffalo and them happening.
Before we discuss the teams that could be in play, we need to discuss our views on Ristolainen. When looking at Ristolainen’s underlying metrics, he performs at the level of a bottom-pair defenseman and that might be generous. However, those metrics likely do not reflect what the Sabres and possibly many other teams place his value at. It is very possible that teams view Ristolainen as a top four defenseman. Throughout our analysis, we consider that the perceived value of Ristolainen may very well be higher than we think it should be. Ultimately, a player’s value is what someone is willing to pay and reports are the Sabres are going to demand that price to be high. We have taken the approach that the price settles somewhere in the middle. Based on our previous article, we concluded that the Sabres would likely be looking for a top-six forward, a left-handed defenseman, or a high-end forward prospect, in that order. With that in mind, we will move into the teams and some players that a trade would likely center around. We should add two caveats. First, we don’t know how teams value certain players. We could be much higher or lower on a given player, especially prospects. Second, we have discussed what we think would be the main parameters of a trade but there is a good chance that other pieces get included from each side for a multitude of reasons.
9. Colorado Avalanche
Once Colorado moved Tyson Barrie, the right side of their defense doesn’t look nearly as strong. Currently, they have Erik Johnson and Cale Makar. If having a balance of right and left shots is important to them, they could look to make another move to achieve that balance. Ristolainen might not be the best fit for them as he and Johnson would become a 2a and 2b. They would then have ~$11M committed to their bottom two right shot defenders. However, the team does have the salary cap space to fit Ristolainen and might consider the move if they feel they can bring Ristolainen in without giving up too valuable of assets. When looking at Colorado’s roster and prospects and considering what the Sabres would likely desire, we think the best Colorado would be willing to offer is one of JT Compher or Tyson Jost, and Ian Cole. If the Sabres can’t find a better offer, they might be better off holding on to Ristolainen. A trade like this creates a bigger logjam of middle-six forwards and doesn’t significantly improve the team anywhere.
8. Chicago Blackhawks
Chicago is another team with an unbalanced left-right blue line. However, it is a problem they recently created with the acquisitions of Calvin de Haan and Olli Maatta. On paper and in a vacuum, the Sabres trading Ristolainen to Chicago for one of de Haan or Maatta would make a lot of sense, maybe the most out of any scenario. Either player would be an ideal second-pair left defender for Buffalo and Ristolainen might instantly become Chicago’s best right-handed defender (a scary thought but likely true). The issue here is things don’t happen in a vacuum. Chicago recently acquired both players and if they were going to flip either, they likely would have done so shortly after acquiring them. Chicago and Buffalo also just recently swapped a defender (Henri Jokiharju) for a forward (Alex Nylander) so the optics of them acquiring a right-shot defender from the same team is terrible. We would never say never here but the probability of this trade happening is low. If it did, a straight swap of either de Haan or Maatta makes sense.
7. Vegas Golden Knights
Again, we are touching on a team that just sent a right-handed defender to Buffalo so a trade to get a different one back seems unlikely. However, Vegas has a glaring hole on their right side and with their salary cap situation clearer, Vegas could circle back to Buffalo. In a deal with Vegas, the Sabres would need to salary match or take back more than they send. In this situation, the conversation would likely have to revolve around one of Reilly Smith, Johnathan Marchessault, or Alex Tuch. The Sabres should salivate at the idea of acquiring Tuch but Vegas isn’t likely to do a one for one swap. If a trade fit were there, Smith would likely be the player that makes the most sense. Again, we want to emphasize the unlikeliness of these teams working out another trade that involves a right-shot defenseman. The optics of trading a cheaper, right-handed defensemen to a team and then circling back to the same team and acquiring a more expensive right-handed defensemen, who is arguably a worse player, would make absolutely no sense. If we were strictly looking at roster fits, Vegas might be the most likely scenario but when considering the optics of another trade, they get bumped far down the list.
6. Detroit Red Wings
On paper, the Detroit Red Wings could really use a right shot defenseman. They are a young, rebuilding team, so a 24 year old Rasmus Ristolainen would fit well when considering the path of the team. The only problem that we see with these teams matching up for a deal is that there are not many assets that Detroit would be willing to move that would interest Buffalo in a trade for Ristolainen. The one name that sticks out is forward Andreas Athanasiou. Starting a few seasons ago, there were trade rumors around Athanasiou. However, they seem to have cooled over the past year or so. That makes sense considering he is a 24-year-old forward who just put up a 30-goal season this past year. He has become the type of player that Detroit should be holding on to. Pair that with the fact that Detroit now has a new decision-making group in the front office and it seems unlikely that they’d be looking to move Athanasiou. However, that also could be a wild card as new GM in Steve Yzerman could be looking to put his own stamp on the roster. Overall, we believe that it would be tough for these teams to find a deal, especially as division rivals. There could be a fit though, so never say never.
5. Anahiem Ducks
While looking at the Anaheim Ducks, the recent trade factor (similar to our Vegas analysis) appears. During the past season, the Sabres acquired Brandon Montour from Anaheim. While this is similar to the Vegas situation, there are two key differences. First, the amount of time that has gone by may make it more likely a deal could happen. Second, the Ducks got a good return for Montour (Guhle and a 1st round pick). Vegas did not get a great return for Miller. The Ducks getting an adequate return might make them more comfortable with making another trade. Anaheim is in need of a top four right handed defenseman, as Josh Manson is the only option on their current roster. There are two current NHL players that could interest Buffalo in Rickard Rakell and Ondrej Kase. Both players have shown they can be capable top six options. Rakell is a 26 year old forward capable of playing both center and the wing. He also has two 30 goal seasons and is on a cheap contract. Kase, a 23-year-old winger, was injured this past season, but produced 11 goals and 20 points in 30 games. Rakell would be the first ask, but the Sabres would do well to acquire either player. While those two are great for a rebuilding team like Anaheim, they may be willing to trade from their forward depth in order to strengthen their defense with a long-term option like Ristolainen.
Another way to possibly acquire Ristolainen would be to use prospects. While we think Anaheim is unlikely to do this because of their status as a rebuilding club, it is important to highlight the prospects Buffalo would be interested in. This group includes center Isac Lundestrom, center Sam Steel, winger Maxime Comtois, and winger Max Jones. While some of these prospects may be more available than others in a trade for Ristolainen, these four would be of interest to the Sabres.
4. Edmonton Oilers
The Edmonton Oilers have been looking for top four, right shot defenseman for a few years now. There have been rumors in the past linking them to Rasmus Ristolainen. On paper, there are multiple options that the Oilers could look at to acquire Ristolainen. Buffalo could use a left handed defenseman, so a possible trade including Oscar Klefbom or Darnell Nurse may interest the Sabres. On the forward side, the Oilers have both Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Jesse Puljujarvi to offer. Trading RNH would be pretty detrimental to an already mediocre offense, so the prospect of Puljujarvi may be the more realistic option. The Sabres would be looking at either a left-handed defenseman for their second pair or a possible question mark of a prospect who could end up being a bust or pay off greatly.
Another avenue the team could look is to use prospects. While we don’t think this is likely, there are a couple prospects that would interest the Sabres: wingers Kailer Yamamotto and Tyler Benson. Regardless of the likeliness of these options, there are possibilities here that could bring about a deal between Edmonton and Buffalo.
3. Tampa Bay Lightning
The first time that Tampa Bay was connected to Ristolainen was during the 2018-2019 season. While there hasn’t been much linking them lately, the fact that there was interest in Ristolainen means that there still could be interest. Tampa could certainly use a top four right shot defenseman, as they are currently deploying Hedman, McDonagh, and Sergachev, who are all left shots. While there are not left shot defensive options to swap for Ristolainen, there are plenty of forwards who could find their way to Buffalo. Buffalo would have interest in NHL forwards like Anthony Cirelli, Mathieu Joseph, Tyler Johnson, Yanni Gourde, Ondrej Palat and Alex Killorn (in that order). Cirelli would be the ideal target as he is a young center who seems ready for a top six role, but it may be hard to pry him away from Tampa. It is important to acknowledge that Johnson, Gourde, Palat, and Killorn all have full no-trade clauses that would allow them to block any trade. Tampa has an abundance of forwards and are missing a top four right shot defenseman. Eric Cernak may soon be ready for that role but adding another established defenseman may help the teams’ defense in both the short term and long term.
While Buffalo may have their favorite targets on Tampa’s roster, the main problem is many of them have the ability to block a possible trade. Regardless, if Tampa was really interested in Ristolainen, they have enough NHL assets to find a deal that would work for both teams. If they wanted to deal from their prospect pool, it would need to include one of Taylor Raddysh or Alex Barre-Boulet. For a deal with prospects to work, the Lightning would need to shed salary in the form of Ryan Callahan’s contract and possibly add another roster player. A deal like Johnson, Callahan’s contract, and Raddysh for Ristolainen and Sheary (50% retained) could be close to where a deal like this would need to end up.
2. Columbus Blue Jackets
Columbus is a team that could certainly have interest in a top four right shot defenseman. They have Seth Jones and David Savard at the position. Any other defensive player would be playing on their off side if deployed on the right side of a pairing. Four players stand out that would make sense for Buffalo: Ryan Murray, Oliver Bjorkstrand, Alexander Wennberg, and Markus Nutivaara. Chances are, Ryan Murray wouldn’t be an option as it would create another hole on the left side of the top four defense. If the Sabres could grab Bjorkstrand in a deal, they should absolutely do it. At this point, they might be a season or two too late as he has become a 40 point player who can score goals at age 24. That would leave Alexander Wennberg and Markus Nutivaara.
Wennberg has been rumored to be on his way out of Columbus for quite some time, as he took a step back after the 2016-2017 season and hasn’t returned to be the same player. He is only 24, so there is still potential for him to regain top six form. Nutuivaara is a decent option for a bottom pair. If the Sabres could acquire these two in a deal, they’d be looking at a possible top six option and a bottom pair defenseman that would allow the team to not have Marco Scandella in their lineup. Buffalo would be improving two parts of their roster, while Columbus would be getting the top four defenseman that they need.
If Columbus was looking to trade out of their prospect pool instead of using NHL roster players, the conversation with Buffalo would begin and stop with center Alexander Texier. After him, Columbus’ prospect pool doesn’t have a talent that would interest Buffalo in this type of trade.
1. Winnipeg Jets
The Winnipeg Jets currently have some cap space, but they will be very close to the cap once they get top players like Patrik Laine and Kyle Connor signed. After doing that, they will still have a glaring need on defense. After Joshua Morrissey and Dustin Byfuglien, there are question marks on defense. Newly acquired Neal Pionk could play a top four role, but ideally he would be best fit on the bottom pair. Prospect Sami Niku projects as a top four defenseman, but putting him there at the start of this season may be asking a bit much of him at this point in his development.
If those two were on the second pair, that would mean deploying a bottom pair that consists of two of Nathan Beaulieu, Tucker Poolman, and Dmitry Kulikov. Kulikov should not see NHL minutes, and the other two are bottom pair at best guys who could easily be scratched. There is a clear need for another top four defenseman and, in a perfect world, two more top four defenseman. The Jets match up fairly well with the Sabres. They have forward depth and need to balance out their roster.
The odd man out in their forward group seems to be Nikolaj Ehlers, as he has been in trade rumors for the past year. In order to acquire him the Sabres may need to send Ristolainen and a player like Conor Sheary (retained salary) to Winnipeg. Buffalo would be acquiring a top six forward, while Winnipeg would be getting a top four defenseman and a depth scorer. If Ehlers is not an option, two other forwards stand out: Jack Roslovic or Mason Appleton.
While these two would be great gets for Buffalo, it wouldn’t clear salary for Winnipeg, so they most likely would need to have a possible deal include a bigger contract to make the financials work. Buffalo would most likely be interested in a Roslovic and Lowry/Copp package. While that would further jam up their forward situation, the Sabres would then be able to deal Sheary or even flip Lowry/Copp. If Winnipeg wanted Buffalo to take a player like Mathieu Perreault, the rest of the trade package would need to be greater than Roslovic. It seems that Ehlers would truly make the most sense, but a deal could be found around a different package of players.
Conclusion
We ultimately think a trade of Ristolainen and Conor Sheary (some salary retained on Sheary) for Nikolaj Ehlers makes the most sense for both parties. If we were handicapping where Ristolainen starts the season, we would give Winnipeg around a 35%, Columbus 20%, Tampa Bay 15%, Buffalo 10%, Edmonton 10%, Anaheim 5%, and the field as 5%. We also need to emphasize, the Sabres’ biggest need in a trade might be a left-handed defenseman. There are two questions the team needs to answer. First, can they sign Jake Gardiner, who would be a dynamite addition? Second, can they count on Lawrence Pilut? Although his underlying metrics were strong in a limited sample with Buffalo, there is an injury question as well as a question if his limited sample in Buffalo is sustainable. We aren’t as ready to anoint him as many others and think the Sabres would be wise to look for a more known option. Additionally, the team would still be an injury away from Marco Scandella or Matt Hunwick playing. That cannot happen.
Our current lineup prediction has Jimmy Vesey playing on the first-line. That is definitely not ideal. However, Jack Eichel may be able to drive offense enough to overcome that deficiency. It also has Marcus Johansson as the second-line center. If the team can acquire a better option at center, they should explore it. While the package of Ristolainen and Sheary (or Evan Rodrigues) would work for a top line winger, it likely doesn’t net more than a short-term solution at the center position. If they are looking to acquire a younger, long-term solution at the center position, Casey Mittelstadt probably has to be packaged with Ristolainen. This would make sense from an asset management standpoint as Mittelstadt’s future role would suddenly be filled. However, this seems unlikely to happen. The team gets one shot at moving Ristolainen and they need to ensure they choose the correct return. We have thoroughly been through all the scenarios in our previous article, as well as this one. We now sit and wait to see when the dominoes start to fall.
Image courtesy of Bill Wippert / Getty Images
James Finch is an analyst at AFP Analytics. James graduated from St. John Fisher College in 2019 with a bachelor’s degree in Sport Management with a minor in Economics. His background with sports and economics have brought about an interest in gaining experience and finding his niche within the sport analytics field.
KYLE STICH is the Director of AFP Analytics. In addition, Mr. Stich is a tax specialist and Director of Operations at AFP Consulting LLC, whose clientele include professional athletes performing services on three separate continents. Mr. Stich earned his Master of Science in Sport Management with a Concentration in Sport Analytics from Columbia University in 2017. He earned his undergraduate degrees in Accounting and Sport Management from St. John Fisher College in 2015, where he has served as an adjunct professor teaching Sport Finance and Baseball Analytics.
11 Jul
Solving the Sabres’ Depth Chart
At this moment, the Buffalo Sabres have multiple logjams on their current roster. Both the forward group and the defensive group still have some questions that need to be answered this offseason. At the end of the season, GM Jason Botterill mentioned the team will be looking for a top six winger and second line center.
The Sabres signed Marcus Johansson, who recently played mainly at wing but does have history at the center position. For the purpose of this exercise, he is penciled in as the second line center. This may not be ideal, and it is possible that other options could be chosen. Another assumption that is made is Vladimir Sobotka is not on the roster. He is either in the AHL or leaves for Europe. Another important decision to note is that newly acquired Henri Jokiharju is in the AHL for all of our options. This is done for multiple reasons. First, he is waivers exempt. He can be assigned to the AHL without risk, while others may be lost to other teams. Second, with the logjam that is on defense, it would not make sense to put him in a situation where he could possibly be scratched. Allowing him to see top minutes in the AHL is the best option for his development.
There is still a major domino that needs to fall to really see how the roster may look at the start of the season. The fate of defenseman Rasmus Ristolainen will certainly have an impact on how the Sabres’ roster will look on opening night. Many believe he will be traded, but until he is, we also need to look at what could happen if he isn’t.
Seven options have been identified to help fix this logjam on the Sabres’ roster for opening night. Within these options, it is factored in that both Zach Bogosian and Lawrence Pilut are not expected to be healthy at the start of the season. For the purpose of looking at the roster, we have assumed they will start the season on the injured list and not count against the number of 21 roster skaters. With the Sabres needing to get off to a fast start, we are looking to build the best roster for opening night. Although
Current Situation
Below is the current situation that the Sabres find themselves in.
E
The defensive side of the roster is interesting because of the logjam and the possible pairings that could be used. Currently, we know that Dahlin could basically make anyone better on the top pair. First, finding a good fit for Ristolainen is important. In only 17:24 TOI 5v5, Ristolainen and Montour produced a 56.57 CF%. While Montour was forced to play his off side, this pairing worked. It would be worth exploring this combination to see if they could replicate this strong play. With that as the second pair, finding the next
Marco Scandella is the odd man out here, as he would be scratched as the extra defenseman on the roster. The defenseman in green will find themselves on the AHL roster to start the season. Henri Jokiharju may be good enough to be in the NHL, but there is not a clear spot for him to play. That being said, it is important for him to see time in the AHL and not be a healthy scratch at the NHL level. Based off of this current depth chart, it is safe to say that more moves need to come in order to clear the logjam.
Below we will discuss what moves could be made to clear the logjams and, in our opinion, give the Sabres the best opportunity to contend for a playoff berth next season.
Option 1: Trade Ristolainen and Sheary for Forward; Sign Jake Gardiner
Option 1 includes multiple moves to improve the roster. With a weaker left side on defense, bringing in Jake Gardiner would allow for McCabe to slide down into a role that fits better. All of a sudden, the Sabres can be pretty confident with each pair.
Ristolainen certainly has value as a young, controllable defenseman, but adding Sheary to the deal could help acquire a bonifide top six forward and eliminate the logjam on the roster. If this forward is a center, Johansson can move to wing. If the forward is a winger he could slide onto Eichel’s wing and push Vesey back to a more reasonable fit on the third line. In this scenario, one of Girgensons, Wilson, or Smith could slide into the fourth line left wing role while the other two are kept as scratches on the NHL roster.
Defensively, the Sabres can run with a top pair of Dahlin and Montour, which is the most ideal combination for the two. In 120:21 TOI 5v5, the two posted a 57.38 CF%. They are both expected to be top defenseman on the team, and their success together last season showed that the team can rely on them as the top defensive option. Gardiner and Miller are two top four defensemen new to the team. To start the season, they are the natural tandem for the second pair. This allows McCabe and Nelson to play together. In reference to what was previously mentioned, this bottom pair has shown the ability to play well together. It is reasonable to believe they could replicate that.
Option 2: Ristolainen for prospect (likely forward); Sign Jake Gardiner
Option 2 allows the Sabres to add to their prospect pool, while still improving a part of their team. Jake Gardiner is signed for the defense, and the corresponding move is Ristolainen being traded for a good forward prospect that is either ready or close to ready for the NHL. Gardiner is an upgrade over Ristolainen. It also helps to move a right-handed defenseman in Ristolainen and then bring in a left-handed one in Gardiner to better balance the defensive corps. The forward group does not change from its current self, but the defensive group sees an upgrade. Like our first option, it allows the Sabres to have McCabe on the bottom pair and create three strong pairs. Scandella is the odd man out and would likely be scratched in this situation. After trading Alex Nylander and likely graduating Victor Olofsson, the Sabres’ prospect pool at wing is Tage Thompson (and possibly Dylan Cozens). They certainly could use another winger with a high ceiling.
Option 3: Ristolainen traded for LHD (left handed defenseman)
The third option here involves a defenseman for defenseman trade. The Sabres do not have a balanced defense. In theory, you can enter the season with McCabe on the second pair, but that is not ideal. With too many right handed defenseman, moving Ristolainen for a left handed defenseman would create balance within the lineup. Top four defenseman for top four defenseman would work if the Sabres can identify a team with too many left handed defenseman and not enough right handed defenseman. This may be tough to pull off, but it would ultimately be a decent option for the team.
The forward group does not improve from its current self. On defense, the same situation plays out here as it did for our options that added Jake Gardiner. The acquired defenseman would slot in with Colin Miller on the second pair. Once again, Scandella would most likely be the odd man out due to McCabe sliding down to the bottom pair with Casey Nelson.
Option 4: Ristolainen for forward; Larsson not retained
As of now, it is not a guarantee that the Sabres bring back Johan Larsson. There have been some rumors floating around that he could end up in Europe for the next season. That rumor could become a reality if the Sabres trade Ristolainen for a forward.
With this option, Ristolainen is traded for a forward. If it is a center, Johansson then moves to the left wing slots and one of Vesey or Olofsson moves to the right side. If it is for a winger, then the winger would slot in on Eichel’s right wing. With the Sabres needing Rodrigues to play the fourth line center role, that leaves the third line left wing spot for Jimmy Vesey (or possibly Johansson). This option would allow for Wilson, Girgensons, and Smith to rotate as the fourth-line wingers.
For the defense, Dahlin and Montour are the top fair. Then the Sabres would need to deploy McCabe and Miller on the second pair. It would not be reasonable to have Scandella play top-four minutes. The third pair would then consist of Casey Nelson and most likely Marco Scandella. In 132:28 of 5v5 play, Scandella and Nelson posted a 45.15 CF%. That is not good, but using this combination is more realistic than Scandella playing top-four minutes. If it goes south fast, the Sabres could turn to Hunwick or another defenseman in the AHL (or hope
Option 5: Ristolainen and Sheary for forward
This option is based off the idea that if you add Sheary to Ristolainen, the returning player will need to be a bit better than if you were to only deal Ristolainen. The downside to this scenario is that you are losing a defenseman and are not bringing a left shot defenseman in. It recreates the problem that we saw in option four. The positive here is that the Sabres use their defensive logjam to improve their forward group.
The acquired forward would slot in on Eichel’s wing. That would allow for Vesey to replace Sheary as the right winger on the third line. The defensive logjam, specifically on the right side, is now in a much better spot. Montour, Miller, and Nelson down the right side is good. The left is still not ideal, with Dahlin, McCabe, and Scandella. This option helps improve the team a bit, but more moves could be made on top of this one in order to improve the defense.
Option 6: Ristolainen for prospect (likely forward)
Option six involves trading a defenseman for a prospect and not adding to the NHL roster. The forward group, in this case, would stay the same. The defense is then good on the right side, with Montour, Miller, and Nelson. The left side still needs work, as McCabe on the second pair is not ideal. Scandella will see bottom pair time. In a perfect world, the Sabres add someone else to play on this left side with Colin Miller, allowing McCabe to slide down. This option fixes the immediate problem of too many defenseman, but it doesn’t add a piece to your NHL roster to help the team now.
Option 7: Ristolainen stays; McCabe goes
Option seven is different than the other six options. It seems as if Rasmus Ristolainen is the odd man out and will be traded. However, until it happens, that is not guaranteed. This seventh option shifts away from trading Ristolainen and looks at trading restricted free agent (RFA) Jake McCabe. This option is less than ideal, but it wouldn’t be a huge shock if it happened.
Nothing changes with the forward group. Wilson and Smith are still fighting with Girgensons for that left wing spot on the fourth line. The defensive depth chart is where this gets interesting. With McCabe, the Sabres are thin on the left side. After trading him, it is much worse. It forces the Sabres to look at their right-handed defenseman and decide who is able to play the left side. Montour has some experience on the left side or at least more than the other options. With that, the team must break up their top pair of Dahlin and Montour. The team would need to run Dahlin and Miller as the top pair, Montour and Ristolainen as the second pair (which we know worked in a small sample), and Scandella and Nelson as the bottom pair. Moving Montour out of his comfort zone is not really improving your team. It is just the best and quick fix for this situation, but not ideal. McCabe is not likely to bring back a significant roster piece, so the value he provides on the Sabres roster at the beginning of the season most likely outweighs anything that you would acquire in return. This option of keeping Ristolainen and trading McCabe seems to be one of the less appealing moves that the Sabres could do. It does not really improve the team, and it takes a top defenseman in Montour and asks him to play in a situation that isn’t going to maximize his abilities.
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James Finch is an analyst at AFP Analytics. James graduated from St. John Fisher College in 2019 with a bachelor’s degree in Sport Management with a minor in Economics. His background with sports and economics have brought about an interest in gaining experience and finding his niche within the sport analytics field.
KYLE STICH is the Director of AFP Analytics. In addition, Mr. Stich is a tax specialist and Director of Operations at AFP Consulting LLC, whose clientele include professional athletes performing services on three separate continents. Mr. Stich earned his Master of Science in Sport Management with a Concentration in