NHL Trade Deadline Predictions

The NHL trade deadline is nearly upon us and I have spent the past two months posting a series going division by division (Atlantic, Metro, Central, Pacific) discussing who teams that might be buyers should be looking at as potential trade targets. I then ultimately predicted a trade for each team. At the time of writing, I 100% stood behind every trade I predicted. Since the original writing of part of the series, plenty has changed. Some teams have gone from clear buyers to seller, some sellers to buyers, and some players have already been traded. Since the trade deadline is one of my favorite days of the year and there are plenty of big names that appear to be available I thought it would be fun to do a quick look at every team’s situation. For each team, I will note my previous prediction and look at where they stand now. I will start with the teams I expect to be sellers and what players would make sense to target from their teams. I will then move through the league until I get to buyers and who they could be targeting.

Sellers

Ottawa Senators

Previous Prediction: Seller

The Senators should be looking to add as many future assets as possible. I think anyone outside of Brady Tkchauk and Thomas Chabot could be had for the right price. However, I would expect three or four players to be moved between this writing and the deadline.

Will Be Traded:

1. Matt Duchene – Duchene will be traded. I could be wrong where but I’m confident he won’t finish the season in Ottawa.I would expect Duchene to fetch a first-round pick, a conditional second-round pick that could become a first if he re-signs, and a combination of mid-round picks or prospects.
2. Mark Stone –I also don’t expect Stone to finish the season in Ottawa. I also think the return for Stone should be similar to that of Duchene. However, Stone is clearly the superior player and should fetch a higher return. I’m not sure that is the perception around the league though and I also don’t see a team giving up much more than the price I have laid out for a player who could be just a rental.
3. Ryan Dzingal –Dzingal is an underrated player who would be a quality middle-six center for any contender. The price for him also shouldn’t be quite as high. If Brian Boyle can fetch a second-round pick, Dzingal should command a little more. His price will probably be a second-round pick and a mid-level prospect.

Should Be Traded:

1. Cody Ceci – The numbers indicate that Ceci is probably not going to help a team in the playoffs. However, I doubt that stops a team from trying. Ottawa would be wise to take what they can get for him. He shouldn’t fetch more than a third-round pick but Ceci is a player that I could see someone overpaying for.

Los Angeles Kings

Previous Prediction: Seller

The Kings should be looking to accomplish the same thing as the Senators. With some quality youth infusion in the next two years, the Kings could find themselves as contenders once again. 

Should Be Traded:

1. Carl Hagelin – Hagelin might be an attractive option for teams who either miss out on the top players or simply don’t have the assets or cap space to make a run for a bigger name. The return for Hagelin should be a third-round pick or mid-level prospect.
2. Tyler Toffoli – I think it is time to move on from Toffoli. He is 26 and will be 28 when he is due for a new contract. I don’t think the Kings would be wise to consider giving him another contract given the state of their franchise. He could be a very attractive deadline option as a team could have him for two playoff runs. I have his price tag as a protected first-round pick, a mid-level prospect and a depth NHL player.

Players I Predicted to be Traded:

1. Kyle Clifford – Clifford is the type of player teams love to acquire at the trade deadline. He isn’t going to make a huge impact but would be a good bottom line depth option. I have him traded in a package with Alex Iafallo but on his own he is probably fetching a fourth-round pick.
2. Alex Iafallo – I don’t think the Kings are actively looking to trade Iafallo but if they could acquire a younger player with a higher ceiling they should think about it. In my prediction, I have him being traded with Clifford and a fourth-round pick for Andre Burakovsky.

Player I Previously Predicted to be Traded that Likely Won’t Be

• Jonathan Quick – In December, I proposed a Quick trade to Philadelphia. I’m not sure that option still make sense. If a team came calling on Quick, I would move him if I were running the Kings. However, I’m not sure at this point that any buyer is going to be interested in adding Quick, it’s probably a move that will have to wait until the offseason.

Detroit Red Wings

Previous Prediction: Seller

Should Be Traded:

1. Gustav Nyquist – Nyquist could be a sneaky good pickup for a contender. If a team misses out on a Mark Stone or Artemi Panarin, I think they should quickly turn their attention to Nyquist. He should fetch a nice return for Detroit but isn’t going to be quite at the level of Stone. I have his price at a first-round pick that is top 10 protected. There also could be a mid-round pick/prospect involved if there is salary retained.
2. Jimmy Howard – Teams that are buyers are usually in that position because they have gotten decent goaltending. However, there are a couple teams this year that good greatly benefit from adding Howard. I have his price around a second-round pick.

Other Players to Watch:

1. Nick Jensen – Jensen could be a nice depth addition that could be a playoff team’s 6^thor 7^thdefenseman. A team with an injury or cap space or organizational depth questions might inquire. He probably doesn’t bring much more than a late round pick or lower level prospect in return.
2. Andreas Anthanasiou – I don’t know why his name keeps coming up as a potential trade target, but it does. He would likely fetch two or three mid-level assets. I wouldn’t trade him but that’s where I expect his price to be.

New Jersey Devils

Previous Prediction: Seller

New Jersey has a couple of players who might draw attention as rentals and they have a couple of players with term who could be attractive options

Players to Watch

1. Marcus Johansson – With Johansson playing, teams will likely call. Unless New Jersey intends to re-sign him, they should move him. However, because of his recent injury issues, I don’t expect the return to be as much as New Jersey might hope. He probably isn’t getting them more than a low round-pick or prospect. That could be a little more if the retain salary.
2. Ben Lovejoy – Lovejoy is exactly the type of players teams love to acquire at the trade deadline. He is a pure rental with plenty of experience and can still play at a high enough level to round out a team’s defense. The price would likely be a mid-round pick/prospect.
3. Drew Stafford – I doubt there is interest but if there is, he isn’t going to fetch more than a late-round pick.
4. Blake Coleman – Coleman might be the Devils’ most attractive option. He has two more years after this season on his contract at $1.8M. His value might be the highest it ever will be and he probably could return a second-round pick and another pick/prospect. I’m not sure the Devils would want to move him though.
5. Miles Wood – Everything that applies to Coleman applies here expect Wood has another contract year and is younger. He probably gets a third asset in return if moved.

Anaheim Ducks

Previous Prediction: Seller

The Ducks are a mess and should be looking to sell anything they can. If Ryan Miller were not injured, he may be their most intriguing rental option as he was having a phenomenal season. Jakub Silfverberg should also draw interest. However, Anaheim has been significantly worse while he has been on the ice and considering how bad the Ducks have been as a whole, that is a pretty tough thing to accomplish. If Anaheim is willing to trade anyone, teams should be calling on Hampus Lindholm, Brandon Montour, Ondrej Kase (even though he’s injured), and Rickard Rakell. I wouldn’t move any of those players unless a haul is coming back but it if Anaheim is looking to make major shakeups those pieces are going to be their most desirable.

Ultimately, I think Silfverberg might be the only one who might be traded during the season. I think the major surgery is done in the offseason. Silfverberg is probably not getting more than a second-round pick in return.

New York Rangers

Previous Prediction: Seller

After Ottawa, the Rangers should finish the trade deadline with the best haul. They also have three forwards who should fetch quality returns.

Will Be Traded:

1. Kevin Hayes –The Rangers gave Hayes a one-year contract. That fact that they were willing to do that when he was a restricted free agent signals to me that they would be more than willing to move him. He will likely fetch a high-pick/prospect and another mid-round pick/prospect.

Should Be Traded:

1. Mats Zuccarello – It might be tough for the organization and fans to move Zuccarello but it would be the best move for their franchise. His return is probably a little less than that of Kevin Hayes.
2. Chris Kreider – Like Zuccarello, it might be tough from an emotional standpoint to trade Kreider. However, I think there will be a market there for him and the Rangers should take full advantage to help speed up their rebuild. The team will not be a contender next season, the last year of Kreider’s contract. They can always bring him back when he is an UFA (though it wouldn’t be recommended). Kreider probably fetches a first-round pick, and two other mid-level assets.

Player to Watch

Adam McQuaid – See Ben Lovejoy

Minnesota Wild

Previous Prediction: Trade for Keith Kinkaid

The Wild are the only team that I have dropping from buyers to sellers since originally writing about them. They are free falling and have some major issues. They also have plenty of attractive players that teams would love to get their hands on, like Nino Niederreiter. However, that trade should serve as a cautionary tale for why the team might be better to wait until the offseason to make trades involving their core unless they are blown away by an offer for a player with a long-term contract.

Player to Watch

1. Eric Staal – At this point, I think Staal is the only major move the Wild make. Any playoff team should be salivating to get their hands on him. He could even get Minnesota a first-round pick, though I bet it would be a little less than that.

Teams That Will Likely Have a Quiet Deadline

Edmonton Oilers

Previous Prediction – Stand pat

Like the Ducks, the Oilers are probably going to do their major surgery in the offseason. The team finally seems willing to accept that they are done this season. The don’t have any attractive rental options so they will probably just finish the season quietly

Arizona Coyotes

Previous Prediction – Stand pat

A slow start and injures put Arizona behind in the standings early. They have played much better after their slow start but started too far behind to make the playoffs this year. Maybe they trade Richard Panik or Mario Kempe as rentals, but these aren’t players that aren’t going to fetch much anyways. With much of their roster likely back, they should see how the season plays out before making any major moves.

Chicago Blackhawks

Previous Prediction – Stand pat

They might be sellers if teams call but outside of Artem Anisimov and Marcus Kruger, there isn’t anyone I really see teams calling on. I think teams can find better options than Anisimov at the deadline and Kruger isn’t getting them much of a return.

Colorado Avalanche

Previous Prediction – Acquire Mark Stone and Ryan Dzingal

Colorado has fallen off a cliff. They are still in the playoff hunt but with them having the most valuable commodity in the NHL, Ottawa’s first-round pick, they would be wise at this point to ride this season out and add one or two impact players in the draft this year. They could make some moves but they probably aren’t getting out of the first round of the playoffs either way.

Vancouver Canucks

Previous Prediction – Stand pat

Vancouver should not under any circumstances attempt to speed up their timeline unless they can find an absolute bargain. I would even consider selling but outside of Alex Edler and Chris Tanev, I don’t see anyone who the Canucks should consider trading that will bring back decent value. One strategy Vancouver could undertake is to play facilitator. They are in a good spot with their salary cap this year and next. They could take advantage of other teams needing to a third team to help make their salary cap situation work and pick up prospects or picks along the way, much like Vegas did last year in the trade that landed Derrick Brassard in Pittsburgh.

Philadelphia Flyers

Previous Prediction – Acquire Jonathan Quick

The Flyers have played better of late and might be wise to just stand pat for deadline. They could move Wayne Simmonds but I’m not sure the return will outweigh the team potentially using him as their own rental. I think at this point; the Flyers may be done making their roster tweaks for the year.

Buffalo Sabres

Previous Prediction – Acquire Brayden Schenn

The Sabres should’ve listened to me back in December. Since I wrote about that installment, the Sabres, like the Avalanche have fallen off a cliff. At this point, it looks like they are going to need to make another trade that dramatically shakes up their core, particularly on the blueline. That probably isn’t going to be a move made in-season. If the team hasn’t made a trade to add yet, I highly doubt they will be doing it now that the playoffs seem completely out of the question. If they do anything between now and the deadline, I think it would be a minor move. They could trade Jason Pominville or Nathan Beaulieu but I don’t think anyone else’s name really comes up. I DO NOT expect the Sabres to trade Jeff Skinner.

St. Louis Blues

Previous Prediction – Sell Brayden Schenn and Vladimir Tarasenko

The hottest team in hockey suddenly finds themselves in a playoff position. They could look to continue pushing their chips in and buy. On paper, they are a good team. However, they struggled for so long that I would be concerned that their early season struggles could come to the surface again. Couple that with the fact that they already will be without their first-round pick this year (unless they collapse again) and staying quiet at the deadline might be the smart move.

Montreal Canadiens

Previous Prediction – Acquire Brian Elliot for Antti Niemi

Montreal has quietly had a solid season and appear to have a good chance to return to the postseason. Earlier in the season, their goaltending was struggling. Now, they appear to be getting adequate goaltending and have already made a few roster tweaks. These two factors plus their young core, should mean a quiet deadline in Montreal. 

Carolina Hurricanes

Previous Prediction – Carolina acquires Nikolaj Ehlers in exchange for Brett Pesce and Warren Foegele.

I still want to see the trade I predicted happen but it looks more like that would be an offseason trade. Carolina’s addition of Niederreiter has paid massive dividends. The team’s buying could simply be keeping Micheal Ferlund. If Carolina gets into the playoffs and their goaltending is decent, they are a team I wouldn’t want to face in the playoffs. 

Busy Making Lateral Moves

Florida Panthers

Previous Prediction – Stand pat

I don’t understand why Florida seems so intent on adding Sergei Bobrovsky before the deadline and to a lesser extent Artemi Panarin. I could understand wanting to get an extra year for Panarin but Bobrovsky? No thanks. However, where there is a will there will be a way and I expect Florida to work really hard to try to acquire one or both of the Russians. They definitely would be trading Derick Brassard and if I were Columbus, I would also be asking for Huberdeau and Hoffman. If Florida wants to do something like that, all the power to them. If I’m running Florida, I might look to shed some future salary obligation at the deadline to set up a summer run for Panarin. However, I’m not willing to move Huberdeau to get Panarin now versus the summer.

Columbus Blue Jackets

Previous Prediction – Acquire Vladimir Tarasenko

If Columbus plays this right and goes for the players I suggested above, they could come out of the trade deadline as a deeper team. I will continue to maintain that their division weak enough this year that they should go for it. However, as the deadline looms, there is less talk of Columbus being aggressive buyers. Because of that, I think they try to move Panarin and Bobrovsky out and either acquire impact NHL players or move assets that they acquire for impact players. If Florida wants to acquire both, I would ask for Huberdeau, Hoffman, and a second-round draft pick. Florida probably includes another asset but that’s where I would set the starting price. If they move Panarin elsewhere, he should fetch a quality NHL player, a high-end prospect, and a second-round pick. Bobrovsky is probably a second-round pick and mid-level prospect.

Buyers

For the buyers, I am going to put my previous prediction and a current prediction. If they have changed, I will explain why. If not, I would refer you to what I have previously written on them. For the price, you can refer to what I have indicated above.

Dallas Stars

Previous Prediction – Acquire Tyler Toffoli

Current Prediction – Acquire Chris Kreider

I love the fit of Kreider in Dallas. He’s fast and physical and would give the team some much needed depth. I previously had him going to Nashville but I now have Nashville aiming higher so he becomes a possibility for Dallas.

Vegas Golden Knights

Previous Prediction – Acquire Matt Duchene

Current Prediction – Acquire Matt Duchene

Pittsburgh Penguins

Previous Prediction – Acquire Jimmy Howard

Current Prediction – Acquire Eric Staal

I made the prediction for Pittsburgh prior to them trading Derick Brassard. Now I don’t see them fitting Howard into their cap but Staal? Imagine the possibilities. They can’t acquire Staal at his full cap hit without moving out money but could you imagine having to matchup against Crosby-Malkin-Staal down the middle? I can’t.

Washington

Previous Prediction – Washington acquires Alex Iaffalo, Kyle Clifford, and a 4^th round pick in exchange for André Burakovsky.

Current Prediction – I’ll keep the same prediction

Nashville

Previous Prediction – Acquire Gustav Nyquist and Chris Krieder

Current Prediction – Acquire Mark Stone and Gustav Nyquist

I previously had Stone being traded to Colorado. However, with them no longer buying, Stone becomes available to another team and I think Nashville makes it happen. Nashville wants to win it and the addition of Stone and Nyquist probably make them the favorites in the West.

Toronto

Previous Prediction – Acquire Jake Muzzin

Current Prediction – Acquire Ben Lovejoy

I was right on Muzzin and don’t think the Leafs should be done improving their blueline. I previously mentioned Gudas as a possibility as well as Muzzin. However, with the Flyers surging, I think they would be less likely to move Gudas so instead I look to Lovejoy, who shouldn’t cost too much in a trade. If Toronto trades for Gudas, I wouldn’t be surprised and I think that would be a good fit as well.

Winnipeg

Previous Prediction – Acquire Kevin Hayes

Current Prediction – Acquire Kevin Hayes

New York Islanders

Previous Prediction – Stand pat

Current Prediction – Acquire Ryan Dzingal

Boston

Previous Prediction – Acquire Brian Boyle

Current Prediction – Acquire Tyler Toffoli 

I still like the fit of Boyle in Boston but with him going to Nashville, I have to go with another center so I settled on Toffoli. If Boston swings this deal, the Atlantic gets really interesting.

San Jose

Previous Prediction – Acquire Jason Pomenville

Current Prediction – Acquire Marcus Johansson 

I see both of these players fitting a similar role with Johansson being a younger option, who is also probably a little better at this point in their careers. As long as he physically checks out, he could be a sneaky good pickup for San Jose.

Calgary

Previous Prediction – Acquire Mats Zuccarello

Current Prediction – Acquire Mats Zuccarello

Tampa Bay

Previous Prediction – Acquire Andres Nilsson

Current Prediction – Acquire Carl Hagelin

How could the best team in the league get even scarier? Acquire Carl Hagelin. He would be a perfect depth option for an already deep team. They could also still look to improve their backup goaltending as well as Hagelin will leave them with enough cap space to do so.

Here’s to an active trade deadline!

All salary info is courtesy of capfriendly.com. Image courtesy of NHL.com.

KYLE STICH is the Director of AFP Analytics.  In addition, Mr. Stich is a tax specialist and Director of Operations at AFP Consulting LLC, whose clientele include professional athletes performing services on three separate continents. Mr. Stich earned his Master of Science in Sport Management with a Concentration in Sport Analytics from Columbia University in 2017. He earned his undergraduate degrees in Accounting and Sport Management from St. John Fisher College in 2015, where he has served as an adjunct professor teaching Sport Finance and Baseball Analytics.